Obama's Luck: The Least Appealing Republican Nominee in 60 Years
I'm not predicting the November results. I think Obama will win (and even big) but, because of certain variables, I think McCain could win too. I won't believe the Democratic ticket will prevail until....after it's over.
But one thing is obvious already. Barack Obama has lucked out with John McCain as his opponent. Like Bob Dole in 1996, the guy has no appeal. He seems old, disconnected, charmless and not particularly well-versed on the issues. Say what you will about George W. Bush, the guy does have a certain appeal. Against the wooden Gore, he was almost, I don't know, cute. That is where the dumb "who would you rather have a beer with" mantra came from.
McCain has none of that. He comes across as mean and old. Have a beer with him? No way. He'd just yell at you.
It hardly needs saying that Obama is one charismatic guy. And that matters.
America is a pretty superficial country and, like it or not (this year I like it this) cute counts. Charisma, good looks, charm. They all matter. Ronald Reagan's political success was built on those characteristics. Neither FDR nor JFK would have succeeded without them. Even Nixon, by 1968, knew how to play the charmer (he was also 17 years younger than Mc Cain is now and a terrific speaker, on the cuff or off).
McCain has nothing going for him except that he is the alternative to Obama. As such, he can win.
But it seems impossible for him to transform himself, in the five months left, into anything people can become excited about. This guy simply cannot catch on. Bottom line: we Democrats lucked out. The GOP chose the least attractive Republican this side of Mitch Mc Connell. Sweet.










Comments (30)
I completely agree, and while I didn't see any other attractive candidates on the list for the Republicans this year, I think one of the benefits of the celebrity-death-match Democratic primary was that we have ended up with McCain. What I mean to say is, that while the press and country was obsessed with Clinton/Obama, the most that was said about McCain was, wow, he was broke a year ago, what a fighter.
No one made the "electability" argument; no one made much of any argument. And it seemed most of the press even tuned out of the speeches he was giving during this time. The lime green monster speech was no surprise to me. I have been marveling all year at what a terrible candidate he has turned out to be, stunned at how old he had gotten, and how badly he performs in front of a crowd. The distraction helped him slip in, I think, and we are luckier for it. Truth be told, the only thing I can see keeping this race even close is Obama's race.
June 18, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
To the old folks in FL, OH, and PA he just may not look that old -- or all that cranky.
June 18, 2008 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Old Folks didn't help Dole. Here is a good blog on why Barack may be be able to take the senior vote as well.
June 18, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was with my mom (89) and aunt (88) this weekend. They both said that they would NEVER vote for anyone over 70 for President because they KNOW just how difficult things are when you are past that age. Senator, Governor, yes, just not President. As for older people being drawn to grumpy old geezers, no, I don't think so.
June 18, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it is the only age group in which McCain is leading in the polls.
June 18, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny thing about old folks. They know old when they see it, and they have first hand experience of the ways it sucks.
June 18, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
RCP has Obama ahead in PA, OH and Florida. I would think Florida would be "worth" fighting for in November (contrary to David Plouffe's recent analysis). Another surprise from the RCP polling was Ohio - not exactly tailored made for Obama's bitter and clinging notations (it must be the union vote that are securing their bets with him.). Obama is doing well in PA too but as long as he doesn't select Gov Rendel as V.P. Rendell's got some skeletons in the closet. If you listen to Bush's speaking style very closely, you'll notice his words are short, concise, and simple to digest (for those demographic voters who are less educated and claim themselves as Reagan Democrats). When Obama speaks, the words tend to be elongated and wordy but holds more substance and is less cynical about the world.
June 18, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like short words. They are good. Long words are bad. Some are, I mean. Not all. But they make my head hurt, even if they are good. Know what I mean?
June 18, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
For once, I agree with Rosenberg.
June 18, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
An agreeable offensive to you administers The Kiss of Death. Obama's doomed.
June 18, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
@ellen
The New York Times has run a very fine article on Michelle Obama on today's front page. If it's true Barack is a sure winner. If it isn't, and the infamous tape surfaces, then he'll certainly lose.
June 18, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree with the general proposition that McCain is a weak candidate, I think the GOP made the best choice among a set of lousy choices.
Rudy, aside from the one-note 9/11 script, was pretty much a disaster from every angle (Abortion, Kerick, scandals, temper, big city ethnic in a redneck party). Grandpa Fred looked barely alive. Huckabee was appealing, but as a fundie preacher would never have sold outside the GOP base. Mitt wasn't so bad, but his mormonism wouldn't have sold INSIDE the GOP base. Ron Paul was more Libertarian than Republican, and was repudiating the war (impossible for the deeply implicated GOP leadership to swallow).
So they ended with McCain by default. None of the others would have been any better.
This is a horrific long term problem for the GOP, by the way. It's hard to see where they are going to find credible presidential candidates in the years to come. Since the party was taken over by far-right yahoos, there won't be any gray eminences to look to, and the younger ones are all tainted from the party itself, or from the fiasco of the Dubya presidency. (No way Jeb runs after what his brother did to the family reputation.)
June 18, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dear American Voters, reporters and political professionals,
Hon. Senator McCain and Obama, besides each having many attributes and characteristics. The critical differences between the two of these presidential presumptive nominees are as under:
1. Presidential "Temperament and Composer".
2. Little Washington "insider Versus outsider" experience.
3. "Vision and mission" for our nation future rather than past.
4. American policies, " first U.S.A Centric" than any other country [ ies ] centric.
In my professional opinion Senator Obama leads in all above qualities.
The need of our next movement and generation is a change. The Change in " past Washington and its Leadership". A change we can believe in and not the seductive, deceptive, and confusing slogan of "leader we can believe in" [? Effexor ?".
Our Greatgrand Nation has to address many present and future challenges and start with new clean "Slate and Senator".
God Bless America. its diverse people, and our Greatgrand Nation.
Our Greatgrand Nation is needs the CHANGE at every level and for long time.
I am sure Senator Obama with the help of Senator Clinton and her supporters, can deliver that CHANGE.
Please stay involved, stay engaged, and stay informed. Please do not allow any seduction, deception, and or confusion by some partisan media and leaders effect your vote [ Psychological Terrorism ]..
Yours truly,
COL. [retd] A.M.Khajawall
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas
PS: Please talk about the " Presidential Temperament And Caliber " of our presumptive presidential Nominees. Thanks.
June 18, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain has more appeal than you give him credit for, but I agree it's not likely to be enough to win. I, like jweb 271, worry about racial attitudes, but I don't think it's going to be fatal. That would require a lot of people to clearly vote on racial grounds, and I think there's going to be a reluctance to go on the record that way. PC sometimes gets on my nerves but this will be one case I'll be all for it.
I think Obama will end up with a definite but not overwhelming margin of victory. I also think that it's in the Congressional races that the GOP is going to get killed.
June 18, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, MJ, but I think you are contributing to an already disturbing level of overconfidence evident in left-lib/Dem circles these days. If McCain is so unappealing, how did he get to be the darling of the media? Are reporters that different from ordinary people? McCain has plenty of appeal: he's your plain-speaking gruff uncle, and a war hero to boot. And prudence requires a deduction of 5-8% from Obama poll numbers as an adjustment for covert racism. Please let's not kid ourselves: this is a tight contest.
June 18, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree.
June 18, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain is so unappealing, how did he get to be the darling of the media?
Barbecue.
Are reporters that different from ordinary people?
June 18, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
There should be a "yes" at the end of the above comment.
June 18, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
In defense of the GOP primary voters they didn't have too many options. Romney is pure salesman with no authenticity. Huckabee had lot of charisma but had a bad tendency to have those "I can't believe what he just said" moments. Fred couldn't get out of bed. Giuliani had more skeletons than an archeologist.
I personally thought Mike H would have been the best candidate for them since he was charismatic, a great speaker and appealed to the base but the GOP powers that be have long since convinced themselves that the Governor of AR couldn't possibly make a good president.
Mike may not have been a good candidate but at least the GOP would be more excited about him than they are about McCain now.
June 18, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I completely agree with Steve.
Huckabee would have been a scary prospect -- likeable, folksy, completely authentic to the Evangelical base, and an underdog to Obama, if that's possible.
June 18, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
@jaymay
The interesting thing is that conservatives (as typified by those who post regularly to Free Republic) rejected Huckabee for exactly those characteristics - his unpretentiousness, decency, humanity, flexibility, humor - which you (and I) find so appealing.
Now that is truly scary.
June 18, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee had the gall to increase taxes to fund health care for Arkansas children - a wicked and unethical action for the freeper contingent.
June 19, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
A lot of McCain's crankiness and lack of charisma are due, I think, to the tough spot he's in. He's got a lousy product to sell, and in order to do that he has to deny many of the positions he took only eight years ago. That leads to a lot of embarrassing questions, and that leads to crankiness. Eight years ago he seemed refreshingly candid, but now, having been forced to cater to the base and try to woo independents at the same time he inevitably appears confused, irresolute and (when he's called on it) mean. When one's message is consistent and logical I think people will put up with and even enjoy a little starchiness (think of Schwarzkopf and Truman). But McCain is coming across as more of a crank.
June 18, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is more atractive than Mit Romy's slimey ass. In the same way that a plain girl is more atractive than an ugly one.
June 18, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be contentious, but Wendell Wilke was considered suave and debonair and sophisticated. Truman was the hick who was in way over his head - many democrats thought this. "To err is Truman."
June 18, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
But he didn't run against Wilkie, he ran against Dewey (the little man on the wedding cake). I don't think you're entirely disagreeing with me. My POINT was that Truman didn't have that sort of easy charm that people think you need to win. In his day I know Truman was unpopular, but history has been kind to him.
June 18, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
But he didn't run against Wilkie, he ran against Dewey (the little man on the wedding cake). I don't think you're entirely disagreeing with me. My POINT was that Truman didn't have that sort of easy charm that people think you need to win. In his day I know Truman was unpopular, but they trusted him enough to elect him in the only presidential race he ran in. By '52 "give 'em hell, Harry" wasn't an appeal to his suavity or nuance.
June 18, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
My sentiments exactly! O'bama's going to whip McSame like an old rented mule and I'll bet the mule's bridle on it....
On November 5th
June 18, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shhhh... We don't want the GOP to change horses in mid-stream. My friends, anyone is better than McCain for them. Fred Thompson has more energy, and Rudy has less flaws. They look like last nights Lakers. Barf-O-Rama.
June 18, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see McCain dropping out in a month or so, due to bad health, characterized by lack of sleep, lack of good temper, lack of memory, lack of......whatever.
Then the GOP professionals get to select a winner. And, that will be.......the envelope please.........(excuse me, the phone just rang - b rite back)
June 18, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink