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Obama's Economic Soul?

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Jason Furman, Director of the Brookings Institution Hamilton Project, has just announced that he is joining University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee as part of Barack Obama's (paid) economic policy team. This is really interesting news given the tug and pull over economic policy that has taken place already inside the Obama camp.

There are exceptions in their broad policy profiles and work, but essentially, both Goolsbee and Jason Furman are serious economists who generally subscribe to a neoliberal economic policy framework. They would be called "free traders" for the most part -- and because no free trade is really a free trade deal given the thousands of pages and negotiated side arrangements that comprise an FTA, it's fairly easy for each to say that they are on the side of working families and want to prevent the worst impacts from hitting the American middle class while in theory, they would prefer to see a genuine, frictionless free trade system in which efficiencies are created throughout the economic ecosystem.

Furman (a friendly acquaintance of mine and close associate of one of my New America Foundation colleagues) is also well known for his budget-hawkery. He has been part of the Democratic Party economic class that has successfully stolen from the Republicans the ethic of fiscal conservatism and advocates a Social Security entitlement reform process that begins to wrestle with America's long term entitlement obligations.

To some degree, Furman manifests the interests and perspective of perhaps the leading neoliberal force in politics today, Robert Rubin. Furman could make a good case that his views may differ here and there, but my sense is that he's an essential spear-carrier of Rubinomics.

Given the rhetoric of Obama on redoing trade deals, of giving China a tough time on trade, and focusing on the real needs of working class Americans -- the choice of Furman surprises me though I certainly don't oppose it.

But calling a spade a spade, it's clear that Furman is no Dean Baker or Robert Blecker or Jared Bernstein -- all important economists who have been far more right as of late than the Rubin crowd in anticipating the stress points in globalization, the housing bubble, trade, and the like.

Leo Hindery, the CEO who has been advocating a stakeholder vs. 'winner takes all' capitalism as well as a national "on-shoring strategy", is part of Obama's advisory team -- but it may be wise for Obama to explain why those hired for the econ jobs pretty much reflect neoliberal orthodoxy and those 'only advising' in political roles are struggling with strategies on how to rebalance the economic results and impacts of globalization. I do a lot of work with Hindery whose earnestness in trying to rejigger the global economy towards fairness and growth is inspiring -- and my recommendation to Obamaland is to make sure that Hindery and others working on this front that is more skeptical of classic neoliberalism are elevated as well.

It's useful to remember however that whereas Robert Reich and Derek Shearer wrote Bill Clinton's economic plan for the 1992 campaign, it was Rubin and his followers on the neoliberal wing of economics who contained and essentially exiled those with alternative views.

So, congrats to Jason Furman on his new post -- but I am scratching my head wondering which direction Obama is really going?

-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note


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Obama's a globalist. Always has been. He'll tweak some agreements in our favor but he's a globalist. Every serious Democratic candidate was a globalist, even John Edwards. Obama hopefully realizes that part of being a globalist is to provide a better social safety net for those at home.

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Two notes.

One 'entitlement' is a weasel word. It was designed by opponents of social spending to inject some sense that Medicare and Social Security are simple welfare rather than being what the are, Medicare being a government program no different in principle than the NIH and Social Security being a worker funded insurance program. True enough these programs are not subject to the normal budget and appropriations process as such and so fall into the same category as interest payments on the public debt but that doesn't make them some sort of leech on society as a whole. You could equally well say that the Chinese Central bank and every bond fund out there were 'entitled' to be repaid their principal and interest. Well so they are, but somehow they never get included in this particular formulation. Though the term is so ubiquitous and probably unavoidable in practice it really was just part of the Cato/Heritage/Concord Coalition framing, and progressives need to keep that fact in mind.

Two Social Security taken in isolation is not in any particular need of 'reform'. Under rather pessimistic Intermediate Cost assumptions it faces a moderate cutback in benefits starting in 2041 that would still result in a benefit 25% better in real terms than a similarly situated retiree receives today. Moreover many of the plans to 'fix' it actually don't and require transition costs well in excess of the current payroll gap. As an example the Social Security Trustees tell us we would need an additional 1.7% of payroll tax starting immediately to deliver full benefits (which BTW would be 60% better in real terms than today's retirees receive). The rival LMS (Liebman-MacGuineas-Samwick) plan proposes a combination of 5.2% of payroll equivalent in tax increases and benefit cuts to backfill that 1.7% gap and for most workers actually delivers less bang for three times the bucks. This is because LMS's goals are not particularly related to retirement security as such. So I would like to know exactly what Furman's concept of 'reform' actually entails. It is bad enough that Jeffrey Liebman (lead author of LMS) is already one of Obama's top three economic advisors (or perhaps as of now top four). This is particularly worrying because a cap increase of the type Obama has been talking about is actually detrimental to Social Security as currently constructed but integral to LMS.

So excuse me for worrying about a Trojan Horse slipping in under cover of 'reform'.

Bruce, i have seen your commentary on Social Security all over the web and I am truly puzzled by your insistence that the current long-range projections are too pessimistic and therefore we should avoid any policy discussion of what is a real, yet manageable gap between projected revenue and program costs.

You always point to the fact that recent economic performance has exceeded the short range (10 year) projections. I have never heard you comment on whether the projections of US fertility rates, life expectancy, and immigration for example are too optimistic or pessimistic over the long-run. If we wind up over the next 30-40 years with European levels of fertility (much lower than ours) and life expectancy (higher than ours) the financing gap gets much worse, even if we are in fact significantly more productive.

These are real issues, and serious ones. Because they are manageable, I like to think of this as a test of responsible, fact based policy making, rather than knee jerk ideological reaction. Your desire to do nothing seems to me too much the latter, I'm afraid.

A good economic team should be able to deal with them responsibly, not ideologically.

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what a shame. but thanks for the heads up, steve.

one question: how many more spots are there left to fill on the team? are you aware of any plans to balance things out more? I have a vague recollection of Obama saying something along the lines of "I want a Robert Reich and an Alan Blinder in my administration," implying that he'd pick from folks from left and center-left and achieve some sort of balance.

Frankly, some comments of Dean Baker can make one relieved he is not on Obama's economic team:

big budget deficits lead to a high value for the currency. I'm sorry, that's true no matter how much you might like Bill Clinton. link

As US budget deficits grow and Bernanke jawbones about his 'concern' for inflation, the dollar continues it's long decline with no 'high value for the currency' in sight, Dean looks like he fell off his economic rocker.

Mr. Baker also believes the war and the Bush administration have nothing to do with our recession. The Recession: It's the Housing Bubble, Not the War

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Thanks for promoting the truth in advertising thing on a topic that couldn't have more import, for like, the entire world.

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edit the above to add:
in such a responsible manner.

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To some degree, Furman manifests the interests and perspective of perhaps the leading neoliberal force in politics today, Robert Rubin. Furman could make a good case that his views may differ here and there, but my sense is that he's an essential spear-carrier of Rubinomics.

thank you for "sensing" certain "manifest" interests and perspectives apparently shared by furman-rubin. they were, otherwise, difficult to discern.

They would be called "free traders" for the most part -- and because no free trade is really a free trade deal given the thousands of [amends & bilats attached to typical FTAs] it's fairly easy for each to say that they are on the side of working families and want to prevent the worst impacts from hitting the American middle classwhile in theory, they would prefer to see a genuine, frictionless free trade system in which efficiencies are created throughout the economic ecosystem.

who knew? furman, rubin, econoecolubricologists, greasing slippery rails for brakeless offshoring and unbridled outsourcing in an econoeco enviroeco econoviro ride to nowhere .

less clemons, more furman:

We are in the global economy. We are there to stay. The question is, do we have the right set of rules that allow American workers, American farmers, and American businesses, to compete and survive and thrive in a global economy, and that is where I would say we have really let down all those groups, companies that are on American soil, American workers, and American farmers, that we have between currency issues, tax issues, worker rights, environmental standards, even food safety, we have disadvantaged our own domestic producers in the name of free trade, the rhetoric of free trade, the ideology around that. I think one of the other key issues that we see that driven this change in the global economy is corporate global strategy, that multinational corporations have very deliberately engaged in the policy debate in a way to speed and exacerbate the impact of globalization on American workers, between the offshore outsourcing of American jobs and the role of the financial sector, the business community that provides the funding for manufacturing and for production, has almost created a rush for the exits where you can think of a government having different attitude toward the pressures of globalization.

One is to say if your company is encountering trouble competing in the global economy, here is the way to hurry up and move your production offshore so you can produce somewhere else and then not worry about how to compete while still paying American wages, abiding by American health and safety standards, environmental standards, and food product standards, just leave, and that seems to be what our government and our corporations have come together to agree is the consensus.

There is another way of addressing this question which is to say, what do we need to do to make it possible for American companies to produce on American soil, to do so profitably, and to thrive in that global economy? We need to make those conditions fair.

Some of the issues around the level playing field are a little bit clichéd, but they are not totally without some basis, that if you had a [current] tax system for example that rewards companies that move jobs offshore, even through our corporate tax system and I think this is one key piece of what we need to talk about today, we [should] tax our corporations with a direct profits tax. Most of our industrial competitors in the world tax corporations through a value-added tax or something like that which has a border-adjustable piece to it which means that they are actually rebating the tax paid by corporations at the border on exports and they are actually imposing another tax on imports that come in, so our producers are double disadvantaged in competition with most of our major competitors, and we need our government to address that issue, to be able to take that seriously, as well as the currency issues.

But calling a spade a spade, it's clear that Furman is no Dean Baker or Robert Blecker or Jared Bernstein -- all important economists who have been far more right as of late than the Rubin crowd in anticipating the stress points in globalization, the housing bubble, trade, and the like.

calling jokers wild, bloomberg news

So, congrats to Jason Furman on his new post -- but I am scratching my head wondering which direction Obama is really going?

yokota must have a fine high school but a college degree could alleviate pointless scratching, unless that is the point.

more bloomberg

Furman said the Obama campaign's economic goal, like the Hamilton Project's, is based on ``broadly shared, bottom-up growth.'' "You need to empower people to make the economy work for them,'' he said.

shorter clemons, always & forever: obama can't, clinton can.

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corr.

calling, jokers wild, bloomberg news

Furman said his priority as Obama's economic policy director would be to expand the range of advice and proposals flowing to the Democratic nominee. ``My key mandate, which came directly from the senator, is to bring him a diverse set of voices and ideas, because that's the kind of debate he likes to hear to make up his mind about his economic agenda,'' Furman said. He named Rubin, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder as advisers the campaign would turn to. Furman also named Jared Bernstein of the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute and James Galbraith, a University of Texas economist and son of economist John Kenneth Galbraith, who was an adviser to President John F. Kennedy. [re galbraiths, see blecker et al., other post-keynesians]

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thanks for restoring the topic/comment steve. however, something was scrambled between then and now.

[note to Morsus Mihi -- I think post is all fixed now....if not, let me know].

Both Furman and Goolsbee are excellent, knowledgable economists who are much more likely to be governed by good economics than ideology.

The idea of trying to pigeon-hole their world-view is rather unfortunate, especially when it is clear that Obama is serious about gathering the opinions of a wide range of excellent thinkers. And why does Steve Clemons only address trade. There is a great deal to economic policy outside trade, I would argue the more important part as well.

Including all the names I have heard mentioned: Goolsbee, Furman, David Cutler, Jeff Liebman, and now Blinder, Summers, Rubin, Galbraith, and Jared Bernstein and you have a group of first rate thinkers and policy experts who at the very least are likely to avoid the brain-dead ideologically driven policies of the past 8 years. (I dare say there are several others whose important views will be solicited such as Stiglitz and Jim Heckman, who is very influential in policy toward early childhood investment.)

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Economides my iPhone wouldn't allow me to reply directly.

First I comment often on immigration where the numbers are ridiculous. A point hammered home by the release of the recent Report on Assumptions and Methods of the Technical Panel of the Social Security Advisory Board (released a couple days ago and linked from Andrew Biggs website). They conclude that immigration going forward was being under projected by about 100% (I.e the numbers are likely to double over current projections). And fertility is a lagging indicator by definition changing levels can not have real effects on labor markets for roughly 20 years until the differential rate hits the labor market. And the changes in mortality rate between the three alternatives are not big enough to explain the large changes in year over year outcomes we have been seeing over the last
ten years. I suggest the burden is on you here.

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Economides -- For the record, I think that the entire list is comprised of excellent economists, but they have different takes on the world. That was my primary point. Jamie Galbraith, a great friend, is someone I think is one of the nation's real visionaries in the economics arena -- and he is one of the most versatile. He's been working hard for Obama for some time and he's been a regular speaker and partner with much of my work. Goolsbee too is great -- but of the ilk I describe above I think. There is a great video of him with other of the campaign advisers that is worth watching as I think his comments were detail rich in a way that is quickly disappearing from the campaign staff -- particularly after he was burned on the Canada NAFTA flap.

Jared Bernstein is a great labor economist. When I wrote my piece, I did not see the note about Bernstein, but my essential point about how Barack Obama is building out his key paid staff still stands I think. Blinder and Summers have been key players in this "moment of introspection" in the economics profession, but I don't think that they have really abandoned a neoliberal orientation. But your point about diversity is fair and noted.

I should have addressed more than trade -- you are on target on that, and will try to do so in future posts.

Best,

Steve Clemons

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destor23 -- Of course Obama is a globalist. But there are different kinds of globalists. Some are manic globalists who still have in mind a network of higher and higher trust thoroughfares for the flow of money, people, capital and ideas -- and there is now a higher fear brand of globalization in which borders are thicker, people travel less frictionlessly through them, along with other changes. We are not going back to some nativist orientation -- but I do think that we are going to rethink globalization and how it works. Jamie Galbraith and Jared Bernstein have been creative and aggressive on that front. I think Summers has come to an 'introspective moment' as well but still carries the neoliberal flame. Blinder, in my view, has been the most important top tier economist in opening up this debate and moving many in his field. The group of economists listed are diverse -- I grant that, but that wasn't really the key focus of my piece regarding Jason's new job. In any case, thanks for the note.

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