Even as Hillary Clinton exits the U.S. race for president, the leadership race is in full swing in Israel. The woman to watch: Tzipi Livni.
As Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in freefall after one too many corruption scandals, the men are circling the wagons to prevent Foreign Minister Livni from gaining the top post. She's one of the most popular politicians in Israel and practically the only potential candidate without the stain of previous scandal, but for her to win, she'll have to get past her own party primary first. How she does will gravely impact the peace process and the future of the U.S. role in the region, too.

Yesterday's Israeli papers reported that deals are being cut between Israeli Labor Party leader Ehud Barak and a much weaker (and more right wing) Kadima Party leader, against Livni, Shaul Mofaz, to try to deny Livni the top post from her own Kadima Party. Mofaz, like Barak, a former IDF Chief of Staff, is a weak candidate in the national arena in Israel, a conservative who doesn't appear to have any real vision for the country or the vision--and Barak, well, it's difficult to know what Ehud Barak, the Labor Party leader (and Israel's most decorated former IDF Chief of Staff) believes these days.

The hope is that if Livni's support builds, Barak will move toward Livni if he can't defeat her and together, they could build a center-left block that could be in place to move finally toward an agreement with the Palestinians and be in shape for a major U.S. role to be played if Obama wins.

Rather than those who truly seek peace in the region --a just, two-state solution--to continue to parse what Obama said to AIPAC or what he will say every day up to Election Day and beyond, I would suggest that the action is more in Israel right now than in the U.S. U.S. pronouncements about a united Jerusalem (and the ridiculous statement about moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem that Senator McCain resurrected end of this past week), mean little in real time, quite frankly. Today, Haaretz newspaper is reporting that Livni and top Palestinian negotiation Ahmed Queria, are writing up a declaration of principles for settlement. This is Livni's election platform. I can guarantee you that moving the U.S. Embassy is nowhere in her plan. That plot of land still sits in southern Jerusalem unplowed as it will remain.

Without a strong Israeli government that is committed to move peace forward, no matter who the U.S. president is, things will continue to falter. Bibi Netanyahu is ahead in the polls now, as he usually is whenever he is a candidate and the outlook for peace appears a distant glimmer, but it's not unlikely once the campaign over there begins for real--and voters are reminded of Bibi's own personal failings not simply his retrograde politics, Livni's numbers will surpass him, if she can get past the boys in the Knesset.