Without History We Have No Guide

Word is that something is going on in politics that is distracting America's top political journalists from weighing in today. (I had to laugh this morning when cable news briefly tuned into a Capitol Hill news conference unveiling the Climate Change Act but then went away once the producers realized the senators were only talking about a threat to the planet and not superdelegates). We'll welcome Mike Tomasky, Jon Alter, and Michael Barone when they're available and, in the meantime, press on.
I very much appreciate Lawrence Kaplan's kind words about The Candy Bombers but must admit to being as confused by his post as he was disappointed in mine. If I read him correctly, he seems to, on one hand, denigrate the idea that we can learn from history in his disappointment with my call for searching for a "usable past" at the same as he admits that those who believed we should go to war with Iraq in 2003 relied on historical analogies to come to their conclusions.
The first part is easily dealt with. Without history we are left without a guide in the world. Every expectation we have about the future - every truth we build our lives around from "the sun will rise tomorrow" to "don't eat shellfish in Nebraska" - comes from our knowledge of history.
I have not - in either the book or my original post - come anywhere close to positing that the World War II bombing of Berlin was wrong while the candy bombing during the Airlift was right as Lawrence seems to imply. To draw that conclusion, he seems to take my criticism of Abu Ghraib as some sort of criticism of the use of military force - a conflating of torture and strength that seems to sum up much of what has gone wrong with American foreign policy over the past few years. (This being said, I also think it is a bit of a stretch to term aerial bombing attacks that killed hundreds of thousands of civilians - no matter how just and worthy and important and necessary they were - "humanitarian aid.")
Of course, historical analogies are dangerous, but the danger lies in their being used in the most ham-handed ways. I have a little internal groan every time I'm asked on the book tour whether we should just drop candy on Baghdad or how we can arrange for an airlift today. The point of the lessons of history is not to use them as a roadmap, but as a compass. Lawrence is right that we should "steer clear from the mischief of obvious analogies," but history does teach us - and I believe this story teaches us that it is important to both win the war and win the peace, to conquer our foes as well as to win them over, to always marry our military and our moral power. Those aren't obvious analogies but they are rules we have not lived by as a country in recent years.
The past, like the present, is complicated. This is why it is troubling to read Lawrence admit that even thinkers of his caliber believed that - based on their own reading of history - we would be greeted as liberators in Iraq. Those of us who opposed the war in 2002 worried about just this sort of fuzziness. There doesn't seem to be any fair reading of history that would support such a conclusion. We were not greeted in such a way in Germany (as The Candy Bombers recounts) - and we certainly weren't going to be in Iraq.
I also appreciated Jim Traub's post. He is right in pointing to the mixture of wise restraint and ambitious imagination that characterized Truman's foreign policy. I a moment that - perhaps surprising to some today - almost every one of his top military advisors repeatedly pressed him to pursue a course of retreat and abandon Berlin even while others wanted to risk World War III over the issue, his instincts guided him toward a policy of preserving his options and eventually Americans blundered their way into a solution. It was a "third way" reminiscent of what Kennedy did in the Cuban Missile Crisis and it is interesting to note that these two crises - the two times we came close to World War III, the two sterling triumphs of postwar foreign policy - were each solved by finding a way avoid both appeasement and Armageddon. As opposed to the choice that President Bush seemed to lay out in his recent speech to the Knesset, there are more than these two options and we used to have leaders who understood that.
On the other hand, it took a sense of confidence to put in place an Airlift that no one in the world thought would work and believe it could feed one of the largest cities on earth almost completely by air, to authorize the Marshall Plan, to begin NATO and the UN. These were not people who tinkered. They lived in a "can do" country that believed that all problems could bend to our will and our work. What a far cry from the America of Katrina and an invasion of Iraq that failed in large part because it was done on the cheap.
Before I move on, I also want to pick up on a point that Bruce Hall (brucejuice2000) made in the comments section. As he alludes to, one of the lessons I do believe we can learn from this book is that in recent years we have been dealt a false choice between democracy imposed by gun and democracy that is fostered through economic opportunity in Marshall Plan like efforts. The history of the American occupation before the Airlift was that efforts to impose democracy or to win over Germans with economic development failed. A faith in democracy came to Germany, and especially Berlin, when their material and security situation was at a low point, not on the rise.
We can certainly keep these discussions going but I also wanted to introduce a new aspect of this story. I found, as I worked on this book, that I couldn't capture what was going on by only focusing on foreign policy. Though I have worked in government and presidential campaigns, I was not looking to write about that here. Yet, perhaps because of that background, I realized it was impossible to write about the Berlin Airlift without discussing what was happening at exactly the same time: the 1948 presidential campaign.
Maybe its just me, though I suspect its not, but it seemed clear going into the work on this book that Harry Truman's fight for his political life might have affected his decisions on national security during that period - and the fact that a war crisis dominated the front pages for the months before the election might affect voter's choices. Yet, most previous assessments of the Berlin crisis only glanced over the 1948 election. And just about every previous work on the 1948 election had argued that Truman won because of a "Give 'Em Hell" campaign of populist, New Deal economic - some even going to so far as to say that foreign policy was not in dispute.
In fact, Truman's decisions were greatly affected by the upcoming election and he would not have won reelection were it not for the success of the Airlift. The Airlift made Truman appear, as he had not previously, as a strong, successful leader. Truman and Dewey engaged in an often vicious back-and-forth over foreign policy. But, most importantly, the Airlift was critical to Truman's defeat of Henry Wallace - a necessary predicate to his reelection.
Theirs was a battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. Wallace, the man many Democrats thought was FDR's rightful heir, was, in 1947, attracting crowds in the thousands all over America - a phenomenon we wouldn't see again in a pre-election year until perhaps Dean in 2003 or Obama in 2007. Spring 1948 polls showed him with double digit support in key states, thereby splitting the Democratic vote. This was the main reason most pundits believed Truman couldn't win.
Last week in a discussion with David Frum, I argued against his contention that the Wallaceites in the Democratic Party are back. And though there are some in the party, and some readers of this site, who would be predisposed to agree with much of what Wallace said (that America should not leading crusades around the world, that we have no business speaking out for democracy around the world while repressing dissent at home, that our military efforts overseas are being conducted to gild the profits of large corporations), Truman decisively beat back what had been an attractive siren song to many Democrats. We are lucky today as Democrats and as a country that Truman succeeded.















By sending & keeping troops in Korea without a Congressional Declaration of War, Truman also started what has essentially become the implicit repeal of Congress's Constitutional Power to Declare War.
June 3, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh.
You don't believe that it's wrong to push democracy abroad while our government oppresses dissenters at home?
I think what I resent most about the premise of your book is your attempt to turn build Truman's legacy around the Berlin airlift.
Truman's legacy is far more clearly seen in what presidents after him have done. His is the legacy of the unitary executive, of fighting wars without public consent and of the president who answers to no one.
It's time for the emerging Truman worship in the Democratic party to stop.
June 3, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truman and Dewey engaged in an often vicious back-and-forth over foreign policy. Andrei Cherny
My impression has always been that Dewey did his best to run a cautious, non-confrontational campaign relying on platitudes rather than policy. In fact the strongest criticism of his campaign was that it was aloof, rarefied, and conducted above politics.
Have you got any examples of this "vicious" debate?
June 3, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what is really troubling? That anyone would think Kaplan is anything but a second rate intellect incapable of drawing any analogy other than the wrong one. What thinking person would think that Americans would be greeted as "liberators" in Iraq? What country has ever greeted any invading army as a great liberator? If people weren't dying every day, it would be amusing to think that Kaplan now believes that analogies are worthless - of course they are if you draw the wrong one. Did Poland believe that the Nazis were there to liberate them? Why would Iraq think we were there to liberate them? Because we said so? That, of course, is what the Nazis told the Poles and every other country they chose to invade - "we're here to liberate you". (The unsaid part of course was to liberate you from your natural resources and right to self determination, but then that is always understood by the invaded and really doesn't need to be said.) Any sentient person with even a trace of empathy would draw the analogy that countries that are invaded by powerful outside armies do not like it and will fight back.
June 3, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cutting as ever, BevD.
June 3, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
...democracy that is fostered through economic opportunity in Marshall Plan like efforts. The history of the American occupation before the Airlift was that efforts to impose democracy or to win over Germans with economic development failed. A faith in democracy came to Germany, and especially Berlin, when their material and security situation was at a low point, not on the rise.
separating germany's economic recovery from german "faith" in adenauer's chancellor democracy is an unwise proposition.
re the former and more substantive assessments of marhall plan economic impact presumably absent in "the candy bombers", cherny either overlooked or misunderstood: kaplan and schleiminger, The European Payments Union: Financial Diplomacy in the 1950s, oup, 1989; berger, helge and ritschl, Germany and the Political Economy of the Marshall Plan, 1947-1952: A Re-Revisionist View, cup, 1995, among many, many others.
June 3, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
err.
kaplan and schleiminger, The European Payments Union: Financial Diplomacy in the 1950s, oup, 1989;
berger, helge and ritschl, Germany and the Political Economy of the Marshall Plan, 1947-1952: A Re-Revisionist View, cup, 1995.
June 3, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
the Berlin crisis that the author chronicles started in the months immediately proceeding implementation of the Marshall Plan. Actually, the crisis, and our response to it, helped shift the political sands and make something like the Marshall Plan possible.
June 4, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The United States got lucky in that its main opponent was Joseph Stalin. West Berliners flocked to the Americans, not because they loved them, but out of fear of the Russians. Many West Berliners witnessed the atrocities committed by the Red Army during the Battle of Berlin in 1945, and therefore accepted the American presence in West half of the city.
June 4, 2008 2:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Andre,
While you, Peter Beinart and other Truman Democrats are still doing furious battle with the ghosts of Henry Wallace and the other vanquished lefty dead, a rising generation of the living, spread across the globe, are eager to address a growing assortment of pressing global problems to which the Truman-Wallace contest, and the dead early Cold War era to which it pertains, appear to have very little relevance. As much as you and other nostalgists for the old American Century attempt to hammer contemporary events into the mold of the post-WWII Age of Heroes, the new world just doesn't fit that mold. And whether you prefer to think of the airlift as a "road map" or a "compass", you are trying to draw some kind of important lesson from a single event that belongs to an era is long gone, and that is radically different from the one in which we live.
The most important challenges we face now are not primarily challenges to the United States or its allies. They are challenges to a wider world of which the United States is one regional part among many. Nor, I would submit, are the challenges primarily those related to the struggles of the "enemies of liberty" vs. "the free world", although I gather some of the writers at your journal and Mr. Kaplan's journal might choose to disagree.
Our challenges are less ideological than the challenges of the 20th century, and more closely related to the material conditions of life - a damaged and threatened global environment under the strain of rising populations; a dying and dysfunctional global energy system and the extremely dangerous geopolitical competition and mercantilism to which it has given rise; spectacular levels of economic squalor marked by slum-ridden mega-cities populated by dissatisfied millions, or even billions; and the persistent threat of violence caused by the insane proliferation of lethal weapons of every kind around the world.
There is a new internationalism growing. Frankly, in this new world the United States has much to contribute, but needs to be a student as much as a teacher. Forward-looking people are now eager to see themselves as part of an emerging global community capable of concerted action on practical issues of common concern. They are less interested in wrangling and battling over the differences among domestic political systems than were people in the generation you appear to admire most. It's not that those internal political issues are not important, but the other problems are too great, and priorities have to be set. What is happening to the world's environment and energy economy right now is just as much a threat to the world as was fascism in the early 20th century, even though it is a threat rooted more is ordinary human economic behavior than ideological tracts and charismatic leaders. If we could cooperate with the Soviets in the 40's on defeating fascism, surely we can cooperate with the much less odious Chinese on the global environment and energy issues we face? But instead, reactionary liberal nationalists want to drag us down into more sticky, backward-looking, patriotic goo.
Nor is the Islamo-whatever-ism threat anywhere near the same level of global threat as was the industry-fueled military totalitarianism of the 20th century. The obsession with Islamism is an unbalanced special cause for people whose global perspective is fixated on the Middle East. When I assess the threats to my son's future over the next few decades, the possibility that he will be blown up by a terrorist ranks relatively low. I am much more concerned over the possibility that he and his generation will be dragged into a hideous, annihilating war with China, or Russia, or both, as a result of the intensifying struggle for geopolitical control of vital and increasingly scarce resources. Again, I suspect Mr. Kaplan and the other writers at his magazine will differ, since Muslims behaving badly appears to be their prime concern.
American Century nostalgia, and the reactionary nationalism it reflects, both in its liberal and conservative varieties, is a rusting anchor tangled on one sea floor. Let's cut the chain. I have heard enough about Truman, Kennedy and Wilson. They're dead. Could we please stop dancing around the totem pole, now, and take a break from worshiping the glorious ancestors? Enough already!
If you want to United States to be the best country it can be, start by thinking of the morally best people you know. Do those people constantly obsess about how good and amazing they are, or were, or about how grand their lineages and personal histories are? Do they pause frequently to examine and extol their many "exceptional" qualities? Do they stop you in the hallways and on the street and say "Remember the time I did that great thing? Wasn't I awesome?!" No, the best people I know tend to face the issues in front of them, let go of the past, and just try to to the right thing without being so damn self-conscious about it.
June 4, 2008 3:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
indeed. but why stop there?
cherny: Without History We Have No Guide
except absent historicity, we, including cherny, are blind. and condemned to ...
start with cherny's cherry picked plurality --"60 percent of the Berliners who cast their ballots" vs. 78% of eligible berliners who voted no or didn't vote at all re tempelhoff airport -- to illustrate airlift nostalgia.
continue through, according to cherny, "the wise restraint and ambitious imagination that characterized Truman's foreign policy" in europe contrast the sad absence of such restraint and imagination elsewhere given truman's calculated immoderation, polldriven ambition, escalating brinksmanship & contrived imperatives (walker 1995) to drop the bomb(s).
which leads to cherny's conclusion: "We are lucky today as Democrats and as a country that Truman succeeded."
yes, we the candy bombers should all thank our lucky stars for the literally radioactive, proliferating legacy of truman's "success."
June 4, 2008 4:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with several points made by Dan K. Especially calling out this revisionist need to make the Wallace issue so central in Truman's actions. Truman was one of the most reactionary Democrats in recent history. There were important steps to consider about opposing Soviet expansionism, but catering to the worst in the American political scene and allowing the persecution of a generation of people on the left was terrible and unconstitutional.
Just as some scholars trying to revise the history of McCarthy will fail, it won't work with Truman either. I welcome the effort, however, if it causes people to revisit this history.
Truman did what Bush does today. Stamp out the rights of people to "protect" the country from danger. And that is what Barrack Obama would never do, not in a thousand years.
June 5, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink