Rethinking Historical Analogies

I want to address today's question, but first need to address a couple of Lawrence Kaplan's points.
Lawrence is on target when he hails Andrei's narrative. It is superb scholarship, thrilling story-telling and another example of why those academics (you know who you are) who like to belittle journalists trying their hand at writing history should chill. I'm not saying this is a problem among TPM readers, but it's a frequent complaint in the faculty clubs. These folks need to judge the work, not the credentials (or lack of them) of the author. The whole idea that only PhDs can get tenure at even the least prestigious university may be time-honored, but it makes no sense. It's the work, not the sheepskin, that should count. Even crazier is that if Andrei wanted to go teach history at a public high school, even one desperate for teachers, he would be turned down for lacking a teaching certificate. (Some states have alternative certification). I know this sounds like a tangent, but I had to get it off my chest.
Lawrence also argues against analogizing. This was a dilemma I faced in my book about Franklin Roosevelt (The Defining Moment: FDR's Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope). Andrei and I dealt with it in similar ways: Keep the present-day references to a minimum in the book (Andrei put them in his introduction; I made the comparisons mostly in footnotes), but use the analogies as a jumping-off point for debate, and, well, marketing. Lawrence seems to think there's something wrong with, in the words of the Harvard historians Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest May, "thinking in time." Why? That's what good history does--it stimulates debate. As the Dutch historian Peter Gyl puts it: "History is an argument without end."
The problem with analogizing is not that it's wrong, it's that the analogies are often misused. The all-time best example of misuse, of course, is the Munich analogy. As recently as last month, President Bush hauled out Munich when appearing before the Knesset. It was used repeatedly to justify the Vietnam War. When Bush and John McCain use Munich to defend not talking to Iran, they misuse history. Neville Chamberlain's mistake wasn't that he flew to Munch and met with Hitler; it's that he gave away half of Czechoslovakia when he got there.
But we're here to talk about a different German city--Berlin. My problem with the Iraq comparison is that it is culturally simplistic. Just because Germans liked Americans who occupied their country doesn't mean that Iraqis will, too. (Actually, the candy part is indeed universal, since kids are basically the same everywhere). Iraqis have a different attitude toward foreign occupation, a different history, a different religious heritage than the Germans. The willing suspension of that critical analysis on the part of the Bush Administration is part of what got us into the war in the first place.















Do you mean Lawrence Wright, because the link is to Lawrence Kaplan?
June 3, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fixed, thanks.
June 3, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not going to get into the weeds of what kind of lessons one can or should draw from historical analogy, but I'd just like to say that Mr. Kaplan gets it wrong when he expresses surprise that Andrei could write as well as he does, being a political operative. I went to high school with Andrei and knew him to be, first and foremost, a scholar and a gentleman. :)
June 3, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lifted (probably unintentionally) from Chris Matthew's hardball rant against some ignorant winger.
Video
Should give credit for phrasing where credit is due, unless the phrase itself (in that form) is older.
Thanks
June 3, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Academics should absolutely not belittle journalists trying their hand at writing history. Just look at Iris Chang's The Rape of Nanking: The Forgotten Holocaust of World War II as another example. I think journalists who write history pay so much more attention to the socio-cultural margins than many political historians do. And the margins is what makes the page.
June 3, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
But aren't the academics the ones who have actually spent years studying the subject?
June 3, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
sure, but that doesn't mean that only scholars are capable of reading deeply on a topic and fully comprehending it. In general, of course, I would trust a history scholar first and foremost, but it would be foolish to automatically disqualify anybody who isn't a scholar from having a worthy say on the topic.
Otherwise, for instance, none of us would be worthy of commenting on John Yoo's 'interesting' interpretations of the Constitution, because he's a legal scholar and you are not.
June 3, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
it makes perfect sense for Bush to compare talking to one's enemies, with appeasement; to a wingnut, holding your breath til you turn blue is how you display your strength. To the adults in the world, however, it looks like a childish tantrum and shows the very opposite of weakness.
Or maybe Bush equates talking to one's enemies with appeasement, because he is a really piss-poor negotiator and he WOULD give away the store. Look at North Korea (worse deal than Clinton had negotiated), Iran (greatly strengthened by the Iraq debacle) and Russia (Bush got punk'd by Putin).
June 3, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neville Chamberlain's mistake wasn't that he flew to Munch and met with Hitler; it's that he gave away half of Czechoslovakia when he got there. Jonathan Alter
A good example of why we need historians to write history rather than bright guys who learn their history from the editorial pages of the Washington Post.
Britain had no defense agreement with Czechoslovakia and no ability to assist it. France had an agreement but equally no ability. And, more to the point, Chamberlain gave nothing away.
Beneš could have fought if he had chosen to do so. He chose not to do so gambling that in a few years Germany and the western allies would tangle and Germany would lose the war, catastrophically (see, WWI). And he was right, though it didn't do him much good, personally.
P.S. Hitler never did understand prickly (arrogant) Albion. Had he, he would have started WWII in 1938 and not sent Chamberlain home to build bombers.
June 3, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought this piece was mediocre, disorganized, and trite.
In short, it was a pretty good argument against taking journalists seriously as historians.
Sorry, Jon, but you're a hack.
June 3, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neville Chamberlain was a Tory. He was brought down when Labour refused to join the government. And he continued as an MP and minister under Churchill.
Yes, he was an appeaser, but he was a Tory appeaser.
June 3, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've alway enjoyed history. I've studied it. I've read a lot of it. I even enjoy historiography--the history of history. I think articulate and observant journalists contribute enormously to our understanding of the past. (An outstanding current example is "The Great War for Civilisation" by the legendary British war correspondent Robert Fisk.)
For all my love of history, I think some academics take themselves far too seriously. In the interest of humility, I offer two of my favorite iconoclastic quotations:
"History tells who slept with whom and with what results. It tells who fought and who won and who lived to lie about it afterwards."
-- Ralph Ellison, in Invisible Man
"History, n. An account mostly false, of events mostly unimportant, which are brought about by rules mostly knaves, and soldiers mostly fools."
-- Ambrose Bierce, in The Devil's Dictionary.
June 3, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Self-disclosure: I'm an academic historian (though since I work on the crusades rather than stuff anyone can remember, I've got a bit of a break) who teaches philosophy of history courses.
The academics always and unfairly pile on anyone who writes a successful trade book, and it helps if the author isn't an academic historian. Yet the flip side is that most successful trade histories are narrative histories--that is, they describe a series of events. (Personally, I find this type of history much less interesting than what the events MEAN. But if you scratch most non-academic history buffs, narrative history is their favorite type.) The sorts of questions academics ask lead to publications usually described as "boring." And this means most academics usually only talk to one another in their writing, and so their books don't reach the general public. It's a horrible catch-22. The academics only talk to each other, then wonder why nobody wants to read their stuff, then chastise any non-academic who writes a good book because it's not really "history."
For anyone who's interested in an example, I offer my own work. I've been exploring the connection between crusading and gender constructions--NOT what actually happened on any given crusade. And I see a lot of parallels between masculinity, crusading, and the Bushies' drum-beating. So if you're interested in a non-narrative analysis of preaching the First Crusade, and you think you can handle an article that was intended for other specialists, knock yourself out: http://www.middlebury.edu/NR/rdonlyres/7B14E2C0-838A-4DB0-A6BF-9B1AAC98A318/0/GerishPaper.pdf
And if you've got comments, just google me. I'm at Emporia State University in Kansas.
June 3, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
ice nine: I think that is 'rulers mostly knaves'
June 3, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd have loved to become an academic historian, but my foreign-language skills weren't good enough, and when I graduated in 1974, my # 1 choice grad school sent back a letter instead of an application form, saying how only 10% of applicants were admitted, less than half their graduates could find jobs in the field, and their budget was being cut -- are you sure want an application?
After falling into a research-for-hire gig, I wrote an attempt at popular historiography in 1980 that cries out for a second edition. In it I firmly embraced giving EVERY PERSON THROUGHOUT TIME the right to their story and our attention in the study of history -- even even the infants dying young, and especially the 99.9999 % of humans who have no effective way of communicating their story to us, who must depend on our sympathetic research and reconstruction of their situation.
Further, all us billions of humans DO have an equal right to our own evidence and analysis, History becomes scientific as we compare and contrast and begin to make judgments on the various versions of History in an organized manner.
The system of re-definition of the social sciences I also introduced (the first version of) in that book, which helps one understand the multiple influences simultaneously guiding the behavior of any given person or persons to be studied, has continued to evolve and I'm dying to teach it to interested students. It's a scientific thesis/ideology that has helped me greatly in forging successful business, political and personal relationships.
Narrative History, done well, is intoxicating and enjoyable. There is absolutely nothing wrong with it, whoever does it. Unfortunately, to actually judge the particular narrative's success as a Historian, one must already know all of the major alternative explanations of all the persons and situations described.
Journalists, who are trained to write concisely and accessibly, may be even better suited for narrative History than academics who are allowed to express complicated thoughts in sentences of 150 or more words. I've been lucky to be able to work in both types of writing situations; my book also gave Historians the challenge/responsibility of proving to their students that History can be entertaining and profitable.
Analogies are always tempting to the popularizer, always to be avoided by the scientist. According to the understanding of the redefined social sciences, each situation is always unique, you can never step into the same river twice, even in a small business unit of distinct (fixed/stuck) personalities, facing the apparently similar challenges as they faced the day before, the changed circumstances of the new day may bring a different analysis/conclusion of the situation.
Thus any analogy is practically fated for misunderstanding/misleading/error.
And to end on a tangential note, among those who've been trained to speak concisely, it is entirely possible for Chris Matthews and Jonathan Alter to happen upon very similar wording trying to explain the same point, this is not plagiarism and no apology is required.
June 4, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The one point in Andrei's original post about his Berlin airlift book that caught my attention, was his statement that the Airlift was relatively uncelebrated in American writing.
Maybe I was re-reading all the books in the house several times, as a child in the late 50's I did feel that I knew a lot about the Airlift, probably from an 8-10 page description in a Reader's Digest publication of some sort.
June 4, 2008 1:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd also love to hear more from Andrei about how the occupation was (paraphrase) failing before the Airlift.
How many Americans were killed by hostile action in Germany in all the years of the Truman Administration after May 9, 1945 ?? If there were more than a handful, those are certainly some stories that are ignored in the literature.
The occupation may not have been visibly progressing in early 1948, but it wasn't failing like the Iraqi occupation was failing in 2006.
June 4, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Treating historical analogies as if they spring fully formed from the head of Zeus is bound to lead us astray. After all, we don't use analogies (pace Cherny), we make analogies.
Analogies are not self-evident (interestingly, myths are self-evident). No, analogies are rhetorical devices we deploy before audiences whom we wish to influence in support of our desires. The advocate argues the similitude between the present set of facts and some prior set and seeks to show how past actions in those circumstances did (or didn't) accomplish the goal he now recommends.
Which, even if we successfully demonstrate the similarity in facts (close or distant), brings us to the problem of counterfactuals -- that is, what would the result have been if different actions had been taken, a result we can never know.
For example, whose fault was the Cold War? Truman, Marshall, and Kennan viewed the Soviet Union as an aggressive, expansionist state analogous to Nazi Germany and adopted policies which they imagined would have stopped Hitler. And yet, Stalin did exactly what any responsible Russian leader would have done and what we, acting rationally in our own interests, would have done in his circumstances.
Russia had been regularly invaded from the west -- by Napoleon, twice by the Germans in the 20th century, by the Poles in the 1920s, and by the English and Americans after WWI. Russian defense policy called for a buffer -- distance. With the Red Army already occupying middle Europe, Stalin would have been a traitor to his people had he given up that defensive zone. Unless --- unless we had traded the "agrification" and complete demilitarization of Germany (the Morgenthau Plan) for the same in middle Europe.
Of course we'll never know how events would have turned out had we recognized the Soviet Union's reasonable security concerns. Rather, Truman analogized (there's that word again) Stalin and Hitler -- they were both dictators -- 1948 Berlin became 1938 Munich -- and we suffered through the Cold War, lost 35,000 men in Korea, 58,000 in Vietnam, and trillions in wealth while turning ourselves into a secretive, militaristic fortress state.
So, was Truman right in viewing Stalin as a Hitler-analogy and in deploying the "never appease dictators" rule learned at Munich? Quien sabe -- which is the problem with analogies.
June 4, 2008 3:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can say that Chamberlain flying to Munich without being prepared was also the problem. Or that Chamberlain was simply the wrong person to fly to Munich. But let's just say that when you have a really clever and unscrupulous negotiator with a huge agenda and you have no big ambitions, it's better not to meet at all.
June 4, 2008 3:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no problem believing that journalists or other non-academic historians can produce excellent works of history. The methods of sound historical research can be learned and applied by people who never studied them in graduate school.
But when an author tells me right off that his purpose in writing the history is to "excavate a usable past for progressives", alarm bells go off in my head. This means that he went into the project with an propagandistic agenda that is bound to influence his choices about how to interpret what he finds, and his selections about what to relay to his intended readers.
My feeling is that human beings are story-telling animals who create narratives of the past with the ease of breathing, but that these narratives are generally filled with factual errors, fantasies, embellishments, moral oversimplifications and lies. I also believe that getting as close as we can to what actually happened, in a way that tends to undermine all the stories we would like to tell ourselves about what happened, is exciting and liberating. I don't want a past that I can "use" to bolster my sense of identity, or make me feel good about who I am or where I came from, or build into a motivational political speech that will inspire the political troops.
June 4, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder at this constant criticism of Chamberlain as the great appeaser. Chamberlain went to Munich with a clear and absolute mandate both from the people and the government to keep Great Britain out of war. Wars cost inordinate amounts of money, Britain had no money, its economy was still in shambles from the last war, the current depression, the fuel shortages and strikes that plagued them in the decades following WW I. If Chamberlain accomplished anything, it was buying Britain time because if they had gone to war the entire economy and social structure would have collapsed.
June 4, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It is superb scholarship, thrilling story-telling and another example of why those academics (you know who you are) who like to belittle journalists trying their hand at writing history should chill. I'm not saying this is a problem among TPM readers, but it's a frequent complaint in the faculty clubs. These folks need to judge the work, not the credentials (or lack of them) of the author. The whole idea that only PhDs can get tenure at even the least prestigious university may be time-honored, but it makes no sense."
Sorry, can't do the block thing.
In deep agreement with this statement, I would say that many academics entered the profession for its relative ease of thinking. It's no big deal to get a Phd. It's work, but it need not be original these days, but merely cater to the ideas of advisors.
This is not to say that there are many academics who are important writers, obviously.
But academics fear the real world, its rough and tumble nature and speed of making a living in it. That's why many a well known musician or artist-as well as a journalist - can't teach at a university other than as a visiting this or that.
History is no secret. Long before "theories" about how to write it came along people just wrote it.
Journalists are well suited to write history, their experience based in a reality other than a review from a faculty. Academics are often flat-out jealous of journalists. The journalists went to Vietnam, the academics got wavers and wrote a thesis about it.
This is also why many academics don't invite journalist or other "real world" people to talk to students. It's about territory. Unethical in my view, when students at a university are deprived of important contact with the direct participants in the events they study.
There are many important exceptions.
June 5, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you've been to grad school, you know that PhDs are NOT easy. Nor is academia for people who can't handle the real world. And how on earth can I invite a journalist or other real-world type to talk to students about events that occurred well before living memory?
It would be nice for you to actually talk to some academics before you smear us all with the same inaccurate brush.
It would also be nice to know what you think history "theories" are. Since I teach a course on the subject, I can say that there are as many different definitions and theories about history as there are people who recognize the concept.
June 6, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink