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McCain on "Nuclear Security"

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Yesterday in Denver, John McCain gave a speech setting out his latest views on nuclear weapons. Citing Ronald Reagan, he stated that it was his "dream" to "see the day when nuclear weapoons will be banished from the face of the earth." But can McCain's proposed policies get us there?

McCain's current patchwork position doesn't look like a recipe for nuclear disarmament. But we should remember that it was Ronald Reagan who started out denouncing the Soviet Union as the "evil empire" and ended up negotiating deep nuclear cuts with Mikhail Gorbachev, including the historic 1986 meeting at Reykjavik where he almost agreed to eliminate nuclear weapons (before some of his hard-line aides reeled him back in). Of course, Reagan was pushed by a mass movement, including the Nuclear Freeze campaign in the United States and the European Nuclear Disarmament movement across the Atlantic. Today's most visible push for eliminating nuclear weapons comes from the foreign policy elite, including former Secretaries of State George Shultz and Henry Kissinger, former Defense Secretary William Perry, and former Senate Armed Services Committee chair Sam Nunn.

We should also remember that it was George W. Bush, campaigning in 2000, who called nuclear weapons (or at least those that were in excess of requirements, whatever that means) a "relic of the Cold War."

All of which is a roundabout way of saying that rhetoric is just part of the equation; politics is the other. Even so, it is worth looking at what McCain actually said in Denver.

For starters, it is clear that McCain's "dream" of a nuclear free world is a distant one. Before embracing Reagan's vision, he spoke in much more limited terms, of "a world in which there are far fewer such weapons than there are today."

McCain stuck with his tough talk about North Korea and Iran -- including the suggestion that "the use of force may be necessary," if only as a last resort -- in ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.

McCain endorsed a new arms treaty with Russia, but failed to explain how his plans to exclude Moscow from attending meetings of the G-8 group of industrialized nations and to deploy missile defense components in Poland and the Czech Republic would set the groundwork for such discussions, rather than just antagonizing Russia to the point that its leadership won't want to negotiate any major deals with Washington.

McCain seemed to soften his opposition to a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty, a measure he voted against in the Senate in 1999; but he clung to the opponent's rhetoric about its "shortcomings."

McCain also endorsed the U.S.-India nuclear deal, a civilian technology sharing arrangement that could free up energy and resources for India to expand its nuclear weapons program, even as it undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and gives countries like Iran the ability to talk about Washington's double standards when it comes to nuclear development.

Positive elements of the McCain plan include seeking a cutoff on the production of new fissile materials (plutonium or enriched uranium that can be used to make nuclear weapons), and for some sort of verification regime to monitor U.S. and Russian nuclear forces akin to that established under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which runs out in 2009.

So, McCain's nuclear posture is a decidely mixed bag. It's not a neo-con concoction (it talks about new treaties, after all), but it's not in step with growing anti-nuclear opinion, either. The fact that all three remaining presidential candidates have spoken of the need to eliminate nuclear weapons is testimony to a culture shift that may finally achieve that long sought goal. But McCain would have to resolve the contradictions in his current stance if he wants to project a plausible vision of how to achieve significant reductions in nuclear weapons, much less their elimination.

In a later post I will examine the proposed nuclear weapons policies of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and talk about some of the concrete measures that have been proposed to achieve a nuclear free world.


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So if a mixed bag includes ignoring (violating) one the Non-Proliferation Treaty and refusing to sign the Test Ban Treaty (while developing a new warhead requiring testing), and even developing a missile defense system in violation of treaty, what is the point?

These positions reverse decades of negotiations with the Soviets and Russians and open the door for rogue nations to also violate international agreements.

Maybe mixed bag of sh*t would be more accurate.

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...and open the door for rogue nations to also violate international agreements.

That door is always open no matter what we do or anyone else does.

Somebody famous once said:

Bomb bomb bomb
bomb bomb Iran

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If there is justice, McCain's position is moot.

Forgetting idiocies like Reagan's dream, which essentially none of his advisers took seriously, (and hardly anyone else for that matter) common sense will advise that nukes are the ultimate status symbol and will always be sought by the ambitious nations. It is also a non-trivial issue that they are in fact a true deterrent. Even if they lack utility as an offensive weapon, they are believable as a last-ditch defense against invasion or other form of annihilation. And let us also note that their very inutility seems to prevent direct conflict between nuclear states.

So expecting any nation to abjure them completely is not sensible. One or two may do so for economic or political reasons, but the only public example, South Africa, is not likely to be invaded simply for its diamonds.

A reasonable hope is for those in the club to allow others in if they also commit to command, communication and control standards, such as permissive action links, that make the rest of us feel secure regarding accidental use. Another reasonable hope is to reduce the total deployed number, which is truly insane beyond 20 or 30. The most likely reason to have so many is simply that it's an easy argument in one direction, more weapons, and a difficult one in the other, fewer. With the jingoists loudly denouncing even cautious communication between states, reducing any weapons stocks is easily prevented.

Only equivalently loud ridicule can counter that bristling defensiveness. Attempting to carefully answer the irrational assertions of the loud crowd is a fool's game.


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I caught a radio segment yesterday with Jonathan Martin of Politico (hardly a publication unfriendly to the conservative point of view.) He described how McCain rejected just talking (his usual straw man for Obama's calls for diplomacy) and that military action alone could have dangerous consequences. The host asked whether McCain proposed a new way other than the two extremes he rejected, and Martin replied "not really."

With a little help from Obama, McCain seems to have painted himself into quite a corner. Surely even he must realize the the solutions to most of these problems are diplomatic, but by clumsily constructing straw men out of Obama's statements, he appears to have largely ceded the field on "responsible diplomacy," leaving him with little choice but to look like a flip-flopper or a warmonger.

...growing anti-nuclear opinion...

Er.. What? While there's plenty of people working on and supporting the anti-profilteration and disarmament movements, I don't think the movements are "growing." In fact, I'd suggest that they're doing the opposite (sadly).

'...Reagan was pushed by a mass movement...'

Yes and these movements still exist and today are a political presence and a factor in the new democracies of countries like the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.

Once again, like so many other places around the globe the US position is 'pro-democracy' but not when those democracies interfere with US goals (aka Empire).

For many here in eastern europe it is little more than 'Meet the new boss, same as the old boss' - sadly.

I wonder how many Americans are even vaguely aware that right now (May 29 2008) two men still are on hungary strike protesting the Star Wars Radar systems the US wishes to place in the Czech Republic?

Jan Tamas and Jan Bednar have been on this hunger strike for about 18 days now and their health is at risk.

More info can be found at http://www.nonviolence.cz and in english at http://www.nenasili.cz/en/

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Highly recommended:
Hilzoy [guest for Kevin Drum] at May 29 Washington Monthly critiques the enormous gaffe by McCain missed by the Wah Post - in which McCain displays an unbelievable lack of knowledge of US history. And before listing that URL, I note that the 2006 interview cited therein is itself worth a read. The [non-partisan] Natl Council on Foreign Relations interviewed [NSA/State/CIA]policy wonk Flyntt Leverett - who gives a brilliant summation of the Bush failures. Together, Hilzoy's critique of McCain's ignorance and continued sabre-rattling, and the still-vital '06 interview of Leverett on Bush's failed [non-]policy tells us exactly what we must know about the need for the transformative foreign policy in the Leverett mode that Mr. Obama will offer.
Hilzoy, "HAVE WE LOST OUR COLLECTIVE MARBLES?":
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/

Interview with Leverett: "Bush Admin 'Not Serious' about Dealing with Iran"
http://www.cfr.org/publication/10326/

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Is it possible that somebody is swallowing the peacenik crap from Mr. "Ill never surrender in Iraq, my friends. Never."
I am convinced that McCain's grasp of this deadly business is about as detached as his comprehension of the banking industry deregulation failures. (THIS is illustrated by his embrace of Gramm as his "guru" of all matters financial.) He can't see through the fog yet, even though millions are now being ousted from their homes.
With regard to his confusion about nuclear materials, he is certainly not alone. We'll all be in the know after a couple of nuclear disasters, however.

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