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Barack's Magic Number=57
According to NBC's Chuck Todd, 57 superdelegates could end the Clinton's delusional hope for the nomination in the next few days. The sad remarks about the Kennedy Assassination should give Supers like James Clyburne and others the opening to get off the fence and end this charade. The former President would have to stop his back room lobbying for the V.P. slot and we could all get on with the important work of creating a Democratic landslide in the fall.
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Comments (24)
it's beyond belief that corporate media and obama fanatics are making an issue over absolutely nothing.
May 24, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think all Obama supporters are delirious fanatics? Hillary feels more shame about this than you do. People that know her well observed how torn up she seemed issuing her apology.
She's intelligent enough to realize that while unintentional, what she blurted out unnecessarily exacerbates a painful reality of this election.
She's not devoid of empathy. You should give your candidate more credit.
May 24, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, she just said she's sticking around in case he is assassinated!
That is a huge deal. Especially with all the obvious comparisons between Obama, and Jack & Bobby Kennedy: youth, charisma, intelligence, our time in history, the war, the list goes on.
May 24, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Present, I don't think Hillary meant anything sinister by her comments yesterday... but I felt very hurt by them none the less. I cannot blame her for misspeaking, but I can note that she has not been as forgiving with others and that her apology did not take into account the emotional pain that her misstatement cased for me and others.
May 24, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was a dumb thing for her to say but, seriously... you feel emotional pain over it? Why?
May 24, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because she has raised this before, I cannot believe there is nothing calculated about it. I don't believe she meant it the way some people are taking it, but I do believe it was meant to remind people that Obama faces, perhaps, a greater threat against him. While that might be true, it is unforgivable of her to exploit that possibility for her own gain. It is callous and crass.
May 24, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you give her every benefit of doubt there is still this; being President requires speaking with tact and precision on a global stage about explosive and delicate situations. Nobody is perfect in this regard but what is her track record at this point?
May 24, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary will concede on June 3 or there abouts.
There should be more talk about the incredible STRESS of the office of the Presidency. One can be healthy and still keel over from some unexpected call at 3 a.m. (Medical and mental fitness should also applies to Obama).
In the meantime, Cindy McCains caves in (like she should) and releases a portion of her 2006 Tax Returns. We continue waiting for her to release ALL tax schedules, assets, and verifiable income, thank you.
May 24, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's reached Shakepearian proportions, or –
In Forms Elizabethan & Hilarious
1.
There are times I imagine the Clintons
later at night in the Master Bedroom
of one of their many private mansions,
her moaning . . . about that last heirloom,
carrying on because – it isn’t fair! –
& she’s got that green make-up removal
mask on her face & curlers in her hair,
& he keeps slurring uh-huh in a drawl
while he walks in boxers on the carpet,
long gorilla-toes curling to the plush . . .
2.
I think of monkeys – & she’s throwing s**t –
but all he can do is drawl like a lush
uh-huh, huh, & she’s back on what’s due her
& it’s not about 100 millions . . .
3.
She voted to cluster bomb civilians –
To ban flag burning with Republicans –
She sacrificed faith in free expression.
This candidate in green face & curlers
knows Political Capital means War.
4.
Monkey-toes finds his c**k & a re-run.
He’s channel surfing the television.
He has one monkey-hand in his boxers
& one on the more remote controller.
But it’s not about his inattention.
It’s about obliterating Iran.
It seems like we’ve seen both programs before.
5.
Now the Queen has to lose it to the Moor.
It will be a cold November for her . . .
J.T. Whitehead, Poet, Obama Supporter, Democrat
May 24, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't quit your day job, Whitehead.
May 26, 2008 1:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
In most inclusive count, Clinton has the numbers
By Jonathan Last
Philadelphia Inquirer Editorial Board
Lost in the excitement of Barack Obama's coronation this week was an inconvenient fact of Tuesday's results: Hillary Clinton netted approximately 150,000 votes and is now poised to finish the primary season as the popular-vote leader. In some quaint circles, presumably, these things still matter.
Real Clear Politics keeps track of six versions of the popular-vote total. They are, in ascending order of inclusivity: (1) the popular vote of sanctioned contests; (2) the total of sanctioned contests, plus estimated votes from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington caucuses; (3) the popular vote plus Florida; (4) popular vote plus Florida and the caucuses; (5) the popular vote plus Florida and Michigan; (6) popular vote plus Florida, Michigan, and the caucus estimates. After Tuesday, Clinton now leads in two of these six counts.
If you believe that the most important precept in democratic politics is to "count every vote," then the sixth category is the most inclusive, and here Clinton leads Obama by 71,301 votes. Of course, this includes the Michigan result, where Sen. Obama had removed his name from the ballot. So while it may be the most inclusive, it may not be the most fair.
The third and fourth counts - the ones which include Florida - seem more fair. Here, Obama is clinging to a slight lead of 146,786 votes (257,008, with the caucus estimates). However, with Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota remaining, he will almost certainly finish behind her in these counts, likely by a few hundred thousand votes.
But could Clinton take over the lead in all of the popular-vote tabulations? Quite possibly. In Puerto Rico's last major election, two million people voted. Let's assume that turnout for this historic vote - Puerto Rico has never had a presidential primary before - will be equal to or greater than that turnout.
If Clinton were to win Puerto Rico by 20 points she would pick up at least a 400,000-vote margin. This would allow her to swamp Obama in the popular-vote counts, which include Florida, making her the leader in four of the six permutations of the popular vote. At that point, Obama would be left clinging to the least-inclusive count, which he now leads by 441,558 votes (551,780, including caucuses).
To understand how razor-thin this majority is, consider that if the Puerto Rico turnout is slightly larger than we have imagined - or Clinton's margin is slightly greater - then Clinton would finish the primary process leading in every conceivable vote count. With two million voters, a 28 percent victory would put Clinton over the top even in the count, which excludes Florida and Michigan and includes estimates for Obama's caucus victories.
It is this looming prospect which explains the tremendous pressure Obama partisans and the media are putting on Clinton to drop out of the race. They want her gone now because they understand that she has an excellent chance of finishing as the undisputed people's choice.
Would it matter if Clinton were the undisputed (or even disputed) popular-vote winner? That's hard to say. The question is, matter to whom? The superdelegates will determine the nominee and there's no telling what will sway them. They have no objective criteria from which to make their decisions. But if they were to deny the popular-vote champ the nomination, there is a real question of whether Democratic voters would reconcile themselves to the decision. As it is, much of the talk about Democratic defections in November has been overstated.
Partisan voters almost always come home after their candidate loses. The problem arises when a candidate's supporters believe that their guy (or gal) didn't lose. Expect the chorus calling for Clinton's withdrawal to grow louder over the next week, with people insisting that she has no "path to victory."
Clinton's path is both obvious and simple: Win the popular vote and force Barack Obama and his cheerleaders to explain why that doesn't matter.
May 24, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It matters. She can live her life and do all (or most) of the things she has always wanted to do. She can tell her grandchildren she got the popular vote, and she doesn't even have to admit that she left out all the caucus states, and states that weren't supposed to count according to rules she agreed to, and that admitted racists put her over the top of the states that she deigned to count in order to give her the popular vote. It matters!!
But it doesn't matter where it counts, because that is not how our candidate is chosen. True, if the Supers decided that the tale Hillary will tell her grandchildren was the one that mattered, they could put her in as the winning candidate. Let's just sit back and see what matters to them.
May 24, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's not fair, it shouldn't be included. Why is that so hard for Hillary supporters to understand?
Oh yeah, I forgot - they support Hillary, and she is entitled by birthright to the nomination. How sillary of me to forget.
May 24, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democratic landslide in the Fall? A closer look at the electoral map should sober you up.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10585.html
“We have to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain wins one of those states, we are in trouble. They have to hold Florida and Ohio or they are trouble,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. “The truth about this race [is], this is the year that we shouldn’t lose, and we could lose.”
May 24, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you keep this up? You're not going to convince Obama supporters that it's okay for the super's to give Hillary the nomination because of bogus popular votes. Saying it over and over and every which way but sideways won't change it.
However, we only have a little over a week for this to be ended, so if it makes you happy, go ahead and keep spewing nonsense about popular votes.
May 24, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
For every poll you find and can find one that says just the opposite.
OHIO
SurveyUSA Obama by 9%
PA
SurveyUSA Obama by 8%
CA
PPIC Obama by 18%
CO
SurveyUSA Obama by 8%
VA
SurveyUSA Obama by 7%
MI
SurveyUSA Obama by 2%
NJ
Monmouth/Gannett by 24%
and on and on
So your point is?
May 24, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think we'll lose, but if we do it will be because of the polarising campaign that Hillary has run. Egad! Now I'm sounding like Hillary, blaming it all on someone else. But fact is, she HAS done that, and willingly. Did Obama ever say that only he and McCain were qualified? Did he ever belittle her in the way she has him? (as in his only claim to fame for foreign policy creds was a speech he gave 2 years ago, while she and McCain were racking up a lifetime of experience)
As much as Hillary would LIKE for him to lose, and as hard as she has worked to make it happen, I just don't think it will. Fortunately we have an old warmonger who hasn't had an original thought in 2 dacades to run against. I can't wait for those debates!
May 24, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
--Charlie Cook, National Journal, May 17, 2008 (For those that don't know him, he's a non-partisan pollster and horse race analyst with a pretty good reputation of many years standing.)
May 24, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right, and that the clintons do work very hard for Obama; it is the only way they can redeem themselves. What I am not convinced of is that they can swing racists to his side. Even if she were the VEEP, I can't see someone who truly is racist voting for a black man no matter what.
I do think, however, that Barack's appeal is broad enough to overcome that hurdle, and if the Clintons really step up to the plate it certainly will help with all those who truly love Hillary and also want to see their issues addressed in the next administration. Those who threaten to vote for McCain are not issue voters, that is for sure.
May 24, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You seem to be missing Cook's point that they will do so out of self-interest, so as not to be blamed if he fails and so as to get the benefits if he wins.
There's no reason to think this wouldn't be so, unless one is the type intereted in making up all kinds of things about the Clintons' yhaving self-destructive psychological dysfunction without any basis in fact. Sure, all kinds of other things could happen, but such predictions usually seem to me to be based upon practicing pyschology without a license. Cook sees them as savvy polticians, and that that's what a savvy politician would do.
May 24, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't miss the point, but self-interest or no, it would serve to redeem them after their behavior of late (by late, I mean quite a while). The fact is that they would garner respect if they did it the right way, and without any "As far as I know..." type comments.
I don't care if they come out smelling like roses (although I don't think they can totally erase all their bad karma), but if they manage to help the country, and Obama and the party by doing it, so much the better.
When Obama's term is over, Hillary will be too old to run, so I'm not worried about that.
May 24, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought you were referring to the 57 states Obama's visited ;-)
May 25, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
57 left. When it happens, it will happen quickly. In retrospect we will all know that Sen. Clinton has been the solid runner-up since North Carolina and Indiana.
May 26, 2008 8:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, he could use a lot more than that, if he is to head off a floor fight over MI and FL.
Ironically, Clinton's remarks last week will probably do more than anything else, to put Obama over the top.
What Super Del is going be willing to hang their reputation on Hillary's faux pas?
May 26, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink