Picking the VP: Choose The Best Debater
I have decided that there are only two criteria Barack Obama should consider when he chooses a running mate. The first is: would this person a credible successor? The Vice President cannot be someone who, should he or she become President, would reverse the course the President started on.
Other than that, I say pick the best debater.
Historians say that the only VP choice who carried his home state and thereby won it for the ticket was LBJ. That is probably true. But one VP candidate out of a few dozen hardly establishes a precedent worth following.
Nowadays the only time a VP candidate matters is when he debates his or her counterpart. In 2000, Joe Lieberman's poor performance totally humanized Dick Cheney and contributed to the Bush "victory." John Edwards was also disappointing in his debate with Cheney which hurt Kerry's chances.
We need a VP candidate who will not only destroy his opponent in the debate but also serve as Obama's surrogate in hitting McCain hard. That is how Ike used Nixon, Johnson used Humphrey, Clinton used Gore, and Bush used Cheney. A good VP is the best deputy a Presidential candidate can have,
Obama needs to figure out who that person is and go for it.
I think you're absolutely right. It's what sold me on the idea of an Obama/Clinton ticket.
May 22, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Surely you jest. Hillary is everything Obama has been running against, and therefore would not fulfill the first requirement, of being a credible successor.
I haven't been at all impressed with her debating style; she just spins spins spins. Then she whines a little bit. Then she throws out a bunch of wonky facts that have nothing to do with the question that was asked. Then she interrupts. Then she spins some more. It actuall is painful to watch.
And nevermind how she would energize the repub base to come out for McCain. How could Obama pick her after the things she has said about him? Remember this one? "Shame on you, Barack Obama!" and --paraphrasing -- "McCain & I bring a lifetime of experience to the CIC position, Obama has a speech he gave, etc." Hillary screwed herself with her own venom. She will be lucky if she holds on to her senate seat.
May 22, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol. Why Hillary? Why not just go for Lieberman again? May as well.
May 23, 2008 2:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton cannot save Obama.
My thoughts on this "dream" ticket are here:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/clinton-cant-save-obama.php#comments
May 23, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Besides, Hillary doesn't actually want the VP slot. Then she couldn't try to sabotage Obama in the hope of 2012.
To anyone who doubts it, my bet is Hillary will try and sabotage Obama because she's a DINO plutocrat at heart and wants Obama's "change" about as much as her base, corporate America, does.
When she tries it and shows her colors, NY needs to pull her plug. If she gives anything less than a stellar campaign for the Dem nominee, the net roots need to run against her in NY and kick her out.
No more DINOs, no more RINOs. No more neo-liberals, no more neo-cons. No more Clintons and no more Bushs. No more sell outs and Plutocrats.
May 23, 2008 2:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good debater, funny/witty (not too earnest), and southern. Is there someone like Ann Richards out there? I miss her and Molly.
May 22, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been thinking about that senate seat. I imagine there are a few New York Dems (real ones, not carpetbaggers with the now obvious intent of using it as a launching pad) eyeing it--and not because HRC will be president.
May 22, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Launching pad? It is a good thing that Obama has a long history of sticking in his position and not spending his time running for higher office. Well, not more than half his time running for higher office. Well, not much more. Seriously, he has been a senator for less than 4 years and been running for president for 3 of those.
May 22, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, but you have got it wrong.Senator Lloyd Bentsen destroyed Dan Quayle in a debate, and the Democratic ticket still lost to a fairly weak ticket.
I will settle for a popular governor that can put a large state, such as Ohio in play. No VP candidate is going to add votes to the ticket, outside of their own state.
May 22, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Debating skills count but a VP really has to embody the same values and principles as the President he/she serves. A VP also has to be seen as a person who genuinely and unambiguously respects the President he/she serves.
This disqualifies Hillary instantly.
One of the foundations of Obama's candidacy is that he doesn't accept any money from Washington lobbyists and special interests.
How he can justify choosing as his VP someone who accepts more money from lobbyists and special interests than anyone else running, is beyond me.
I don't believe Hillary has earned her way onto the Democratic ticket.
Unless you consider "coercion" a way of earning anything.
And it's not through coercion.
May 22, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's best pick for VP - Mark Warner of West Virginia...chime in, please...
Is it true some of the Clinton supporters are FINALLY seeing the light with Hillary Clinton. It came to light a long time ago for me to see that Hillary Clinton is really an opportunist, not a statesman or statesperson. Hillary is power hunger out of self-interest, not out of the desire to better lives for ALL Americans. Hillary revealed her true feelings when she announced her candidacy by stating "...I'm in it to win". Had you noticed, Hillary never mentioned about the nobler good of helping others by lifting people up instead of down by pandering to their fears. Her 'kitchen sink strategy' is really an euphuisms for race baiting, pandering to corporate interests, and willingness to tear the Democratic party for her own SELFISH reasons (by her willingness to take the MI and FL votes all the way to the Democratic Convention)..
May 22, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Warner is from Virginia, not West Virginia. And he's winning a Senate seat in a walk right now.
Your Virginia boys to look at are Jim Webb and Tim Kaine. (I'll quit my job and campaign full time for either one of them on an Obama ticket)
May 22, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for stopping by!
May 23, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
People are too hooked on the primary. Nationally with all voters her current unfavourability rating is 53%
Stop a moment and envisage what the Republicans would do with their ads if both these candidates were on the ticket.
Hillary: John McCain has the experience.. I have the experience... Barack Obama just has a speech.
Bosniagate.
Think what they'll do with the idea of Hillary and Bill back in the White House: Bill STILL on the
`f*ckjet`.
Just the tip of the iceberg and you add all that to Wright & Ayers: it really doesn't bear thinking about.
Anyway the whole thing's academic. Barack does not yet have the nomination. We have no idea what the undeclared superdelegates are making of the general polls showing Hillary creaming McCain while McCain beats Obama and the sense *they* have of women voters' backlash.
May 22, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would be interested in who MJ Rosenberg considers the better and worse debaters among many of the most talked of candidates. (I think it goes without saying that any candidate with, however fairly or not, has high negatives and baggage that will pull the ticket down is no good, and that means even if you consider Hillary Clinton the greatest debater since Clarence Darrow, fuggedabout it!
(I strongly think the nominee should be (a) a woman who (b) never supported the Iraq War Resolution (IWR) back when ...)
But how do the following debate?:
Gov Sebelius
Sen Stabenow
Gov Napolitano
Sen Webb
Gov Kaine
ex-Gov Warner
Wes Clark (I still don't want him ...)
Sam Nunn (same as above)
Strickland (ditto)
Gov Schweitzer
does anyone have familiarity with how these people debate one-on-one? We know Edwards is not too hot, and Richardson is pretty good. What about the others. Anyone know WHERE this sort of thing (on the web) has been evaluated?
May 22, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops -- I forgot my first choice: Sen Barbara Boxer.
She has LOTS of charisma, is VERY unifying and enthusiasm generating, voted NO on IWR, strong on Greenhouse (for a pol), very knowledgeable and capable, would help carry FL (I know Obama doesn't need any help carrying CA), and little by the way of negatives or baggage that I know of ...
May 22, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed! Boxer is a great Senator and my pick for first woman President. I don't know if she's politically viable (or if she wouldn't better serve the country in her current position), but I like her a lot and she should get a least a spot on a few pundits' lists if not the actual short list.
May 22, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
posting question--how do you blockquote or turn a long link into one word or even do bold?
May 22, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You write the word "blockquote" inside these >. When you're done, you repeat it and do a "/" after the first's and follow with the same / at the end. I'll try it and see if I can fool the system:
May 23, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, you just can't show the commands because they get put into the formatting invisibly except in blog posts.
May 23, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well then, Jim Webb?
I was skeptical of him until being convinced in one of MJ's threads and... seems like the ornery veteran with a populist streak that will apeal in Appachia where Obama is weak would be a good idea.
May 22, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've got to agree, destor23, as far as the debating goes. The succession thing is something that I'm not sure about though. I'm not saying that I think he's unfit, just that I haven't really decided whether he's appropriate in this capacity.
May 22, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes I think Webb is a decent "debater." But did you see his recent Meet The Press appearance? I subtracted like 7 oratory points.
May 22, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with MJ. Perhaps the most important quality of a VP is for them to continue the work began by the President, in all sincerity.
I'm dubious about Webb. He's a main street Republican at heart. Which is good, I respect that, but I don't see him as a passionate reformer.
It would be a little too JFK/LBJ. And we know how that worked out. LBJ was always at odds with RFK + JFK over civil rights and slow walked them once in office. He also wouldn't get us out of Vietnam.
To be blunt, it would be too tempting for a some redneck to try and kill Obama if Webb was next in line. And Republicans would want very much to impeach if Webb was next.
Webb in office wouldn't really fight for reform I don't think. I doubt he'd carry out Obama's multi-step Healthcare reform or various other plans.
May 23, 2008 3:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
May 23, 2008 3:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a Virginian, I don't want Webb to be VEEP. I like him right where he is. But did you hear his rebuttle to the State of the Union? You must not have or you wouldn't think as you do about him. He spoke eloquently about the need for universal health care. He spoke about the huge divide between the super-rich and those in poverty.
I prefer he stay here, but I humbly suggest you educate yourself before you call him ANY kind of a secret republican. He IS for financial responsibility, which is what republicans USED to be for, but he believes in the common good, which is NOT a republican way of thinking.
May 23, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look folks; this debating skills criteria is nonsense.
As I pointed out before, Lloyd Bentsen trounced
Dan Quayle and it gained us not a single state.
John Edwards was supposed to be the skilled trial lawyer that was going to wipe the floor with plodding Dick Cheney.
How did that turn out for us.
This is politics folks, not a debating society. We need
a skilled experienced political winner who can put a
large state in play.
May 22, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we need someone who can neutralize McCain's persona, which is why I like William Fallon (more experience with the problems at hand and a true maverick), or can help with a desired electorate, which is why I would be hysterical if Obama somehow scored Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe.
May 22, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fallon would certainly give the ticket military cred (and he is out of work right now) but does anyone even know if he's a Democrat?
Not wanting a war with Iran is a good start, but does he have any non-warfare-related opinions?
Jim Webb is a bit of a loose cannon, and won't necessarily put his state in play. Wes Clark would be a sop to the Clintonites, but I doubt he brings much else to the ticket.
I think Obama needs a woman (Gov. Sebelius of Kansas or Gov. Napolitano of Arizona).
Sebelius, with her midestern accent and homey speaking style, would be a real asset on the campaign trail. Hillary-like, without the baggage.
She'd probably do well in debates, but -- more important -- she complements Obama's message.
Plus, I've got money riding on her.
Obama-Sebelius '08!
May 22, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snowe and Collins are women. They're also officially McCain supporters, but I never said it was likely.
On the other hand, he could frame it as some sort of runner-up plan, except a supporter of the runner up rather than the runner up himself.
May 22, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd just like to again voice my disapproval of the Fallon suggestion. Unless he's hiding an M.A. in social work and a subscription to the Daily Worker.
May 22, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
That actually raises a good point: where is he. It's almost as if Bush had him disappeared.
May 23, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Events" are what Obama has to worry about most - looking forward. Not debating skills, or capturing 1 particular state. He's already changing the old electoral math, by mobilizing new constituencies, etc. And the Rep.'s already have an (unpopular) 8 year track record which McCain will have to maneuver, hourly, to get away from. Gas prices, Iraq, New Orleans, health care, CO2, deficits, etc.
But events could still defeat Obama. Most particularly in the Gulf obviously. e.g. An Iranian event. Any sudden Middle East military action could leave him reacting to an environment where the initial media reports are dominated by the "official" story. And Mssrs Bush & Cheney and co. control the type, timing, face and initial public appearance of any such event.
That's the BIG wild card. And McCain would be hard to beat if his storyline matched up with the initial news reports. And yes, sadly, such "machinations" are quite possible. The "October Surprise" could easily have a sequel.
So, for VP..... A General, or strong military experience, would be the best insurance. PLUS, adding such an image, (for a nation which IS at war), would also give him a strong means of neutralizing some of the military-gun-lower income-white male-issues Hillary has raised, and the Republicans will hone.
Webb? Nunn? Wes Clark?
May 22, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
My big fear, too, quinn.
Maybe even earlier than October.
I would hope Obama starts now to speak out against war with Iran as a partisan political tactic.
Inoculate the voting public against the CW that, well, we're at war now; better go with the candidate with military experience.
The Republicans are desperate already; rolling the dice may start to look better and better.
May 22, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
unfortunate scenario, but entirely consistent with Bush, Cheney McCain & Partners.
With so many considerations for VP, experience, military, female,
southern states, maybe Obama can propose a sec. of state and sec. of defense. at the same time he chooses his VP.
Less a dream ticket. More a dream team.
May 22, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
“As President, I will do everything that I can to help Israel protect itself from these and other threats...We will make sure that Israel can defend itself from any attack, whether it comes from as close as Gaza or as far as Tehran. The defense cooperation between the United States and Israel has been a model of success, and I believe that it can be deepened and strengthened."
Sen. Barack Obama May 22, 2008
Tell us, Mr. Rosenberg, is he lying?
May 22, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The continued, obsessive interest in the Obama's VP choice puzzles me. The Vice Presidency is not a terribly important position. The VP has no official jobs inside a presidential administration, and except for presiding over the Senate has no official jobs period. The VP is not some sort of presidential partner, or co-president or even top assistant. He or she is just an understudy, someone who sits around and keeps up with the briefings in case something happens to the President. Despite quadrennial hopes to the contrary, the VP candidate rarely has any discernible impact on the race. The ideal VP is someone who has unimpeachable qualifications to serve as president, is unquestionably loyal to the president, and is willing to stand in the wings, out of sight and out of mind, and not make any trouble.
May 22, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The VP is considered the heir apparent, a position formerly held by the Secretary of State (of course, back then there was a Vice Presidential election). As McCain will tell you, those were the days (hey-o!)
May 22, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the folks here can imagine Obama staying alive until 2013, but a lot of us have vivid memories of the 1960's. Reagan and Ford both survived attempts on their lives, and remember, this is one of the most violent countries on earth. If you don't believe me, look it up.
Obama will win this election. Donald Duck could win this election. What many of us want in a VP candidate is someone who thinks like Barack; someone who can carry on.
I don't know who that person is. Bill Bradley is the only one who immediately comes to mind, but I am hoping that Barack has a short list of people who think like him. Integrity. Honesty. Civility.
May 23, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink