Why Hillary Lost
Doing my job on Capitol Hill, I bumped into Barack Obama at the beginning of 2007 in the Russell building and proceeded to bend his ear with my idea that he just had to run for President.
He was very polite (the man is a great listener). I said that timing is everything in politics and told him that the reason there is no former President named Mario Cuomo is because he should have run in 1984 or 1988, when he was fresh, new, and hot.
Then I said, "Besides someone is going to run against Hillary because of her vote for the war. It might as well be you."
He then said, "that is what everybody tells me. But I'm not running."
He changed his mind and now he's going to be the Democratic nominee.
But were it not for Hillary's vote for the war, he would not have run because there was no opening. She gave him the opening by voting for the war.
So spare me the stories about her being defeated by sexism or whatever. Democrats are dying to vote for a qualified liberal woman for President (just as some of us are dying to vote for a qualified liberal African American. And this year we will).
But the war vote made it impossible for her to go unchallenged in the primaries which gave the immensely appealing and talented Obama his chance.
Hillary people have every right to be angry about how their best laid plans turned out. And I can understand the need to blame somebody.
Here's my vote for scapegoat. Whoever persuaded Hillary to vote for the war cost her the Presidency. It is that simple.
I NOTE in the Times that Ferraro now says that she may not vote for Obama. For those not told enough to remember Ferraro when she served in the House from New York, she was the one Reagan Democrat in the New York delegation (I worked for a New York Congressman) and was generally considered a conservative Dem and no liberal. Her big issue was opposing "busing." So her opposition to Obama is no surprise.


Comments (142)
Totally agree.
I wonder if there's also something else happening with the Democratic electorate: voters don't want another John Kerry. He was evicerated in the 2004 campaign for having voted for the war and then wanted to complain about the result. This flip flopping label stuck and he appeared as another Democratic candidate who just said what he thought people wanted to hear. I'm convinced that had he voted against the war, John Kerry would be running for his second term right now.
May 19, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
So why did Obama lose?
May 19, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Obama is winning. What do you mean, mister middle finger?
May 19, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you use the Firefox browser, an add-on called "AdBlock" can selectively and permanently block any pictures, ads or TPM posters pics(often irritating). You just install AdBlock, right click on the image and select block and you never have to see it again. I don't know if Internet Explorer has this option.
May 19, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're Obama supporters, and you can't stand
looking at his picture?
Something you don't like about what he is doing,
maybe?
Something you are in denial about?
Yes, Barry is losing.
She has the popular vote. Yes, FL and MI are
states too. Yes, he illegally aired commercials
in FL. No, he didn't have to take his name off
the MI ballot, but he was doing what John Edwards
was doing. Just the kinda guy he is. Follow the
group.
One candidate did not remove her name, and one
candidate won MI.
May 19, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take your meds.
May 19, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
talk about denial...
May 20, 2008 2:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is my official pledge to not respond to these types of nonsense posts anymore from any TPM troll. If we can't get an "ignore" button for certain posters, I guess I have to go manual on the effort.
May 20, 2008 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Don't feed the trolls or those who write the absurd.
However, here's a good link about the popular vote totals for anyone who wants to engage in this pointless back and forth:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008/05/counting-the-vo.html
May 20, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh boy, you are going all the way to the Convention. Alone.
May 20, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hahaha! I thought I was the only one who used AdBlock on peoples' awful avatars here!
I also use it on Facebook to block some horrifyingly poor profile images.
May 20, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your avatar is gorgeous.
May 21, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The vote on the certainly is something that is a conundrum for Hillary, but you haven't really heard much about it in the campaign for a long time.
I think the AUMF was more endemic of the true problem for Hillary:
She guided her Senate terms as building a record solely for running for POTUS. I'm not sure she ever had a real policy direction or a core set of beliefs. This is the do-anything-say-anything to get elected part of her being that seems fundamental.
Is anyone sure of what Hillary stands for? The only issue where she has ever been clear has been Universal Health Care. The rest? It's like the driver license question at the debate. She gives whatever answer she needs to as a way of getting through the question.
I think Hillary's biggest mistake was not running in 2004. She has a real chance of winning against the Dem background and might have energized the female vote to defeat GWB.
But the Clintons have always been too clever by half.
I'm glad she made the miscalculation. We need to break out of our dynasty-mentality for the White House. (Historically, dynasty-mentality is a sign of a country whose power is on the wane.) This election will certainly put the kibosh on that.
May 19, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I concur. I was mildly biased against Hillary for that reason. The prospect of a Bush or Clinton as president for three straight decades didn't sit well with me.
But I would still vote for her ahead of McCain, and back in January I still expected her to be the nominee, despite her war vote.
Obama was the only major candidate who didn't vote for the war. It's been a close, tough contest, so any one of a number of things could have swung it the other way: in addition to the war vote, had Clinton done better managing her finances she wouldn't have been essentially broke when Obama won 11 contests in a row in February. Had her team studied the delegate selection process as thoroughly as the Obama camp did, he probably wouldn't have racked up such large margins in caucus states, and she would have more viability than coup-by-superdelegate. And I think her decision to go so sharply negative against Obama when she fell behind was at best a Pyrrhic victory: perhaps she got a few more votes, especially in Appalachia, but those tactics likely made her job of convincing superdelegates to back her much harder.
May 19, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
"dynasty mentality"
I was heavily opposed to her for that reason. I always liked her just fine, and sure, she knows policy, but the dynasty issue was a big deal to me. I had a hard time getting past it. And then the war vote (combined with the flag bill) just clinched it.
May 19, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That, and she and Bill Clinton are total whores for the corporate kleptocracy. It's truly amazing how clueless some people are about Bill Clinton's record, both Dems and Reps. Shows how easy some people are manipulated over cultural wedge issues.
Clinton passed NAFTA against the prescient objections of many.
Clinton deregulated energy markets which made ENRON possible just as the Bushs' would have.
Clinton deregulated media consolidation.
Clinton drank the Republican cool aid and kept Greenspan who inflated both bubbles with absolutely horrible monetary policy.
Clinton pardoned a bunch of cronies and crooks.
Clinton was for line item veto, same as GW Bush, which was struck down as unconstitutional.
Clinton launched the Iraq Liberation Act and maintained sanctions on Iraq for 8 years while doing nothing else, which killed tens of thousands of Iraqi children from dysentery, and by kicking the can down the road made war virtually inevitable in the next Republican admin.
Clinton increased the death penalty.
Clinton did next to nothing for the Environment.
Clinton bungled healthcare reform with Hillary Care and killed it for 16 years.
Clinton didn't "balance the budget" he just happened to be in office when revenue were up due to the IT boom.
Clinton had no coat tails and helped usher in a Republican congress.
Screw Bill Clinton and his Wal*Mart wife. Both of them are whores and did virtually no different than Republicans on economic issues.
The Clinton and the Bush's re no different except they pander to different sides on social wedges. No wonder Bill and HW Bush are such buddies.
May 19, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah and those pant suits. That did it for me hehehe
May 20, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not funny. Not intelligent. :(
May 20, 2008 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would only amend this to say that it wasn't just the war vote, but the broader foreign policy orientation of which that vote was an expression. If that vote had been an anomalous blemish on what was otherwise a foreign policy that a majority of Democrats eagerly supported, she would have been forgiven along with any number of others who voted for the war. But that vote was part of a pattern on Middle East policy that included hawkish stances on Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Sunni-Shia relations and other issues that clearly place her in the Democratic auxiliary of the "clean break" crew.
That's why she was never able to successfully maneuver away from this vote. Even while she attempted to feign a pandering leftward tilt for the benefit of Democratic primary voters, she continued to work to maintain her hawkish street cred with Aipac-lovers. She has along the way misrepresented her 2002 and 2003 stance, trying to make it look less belligerent than it in fact was, but few people who were paying attention were buying it. Up to this day she still doesn't get it. She still thinks it is necessary to out-hawk John McCain, and puts her supposed toughness vis-a-vis McCain as her chief electability claim. While claiming to regret her Iraq vote on moment, she goes off on the prospect of "obliterating" Iran in the next. She severely misread the electorate and their mood about the utter disaster that is the Bush foreign policy, a policy that McCain has foolishly saddled himself with.
Perhaps her fate was sealed back at the end of the Clinton administration. She decided then that the path to the White House was to be found in taking up residence in New York - where she had no real roots - and turning herself into Hillarijaz, Warrior Queen of Israel. It no doubt looked like a no-brainer at the time, but it looks like a bad move now.
May 19, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The six or so books I've read on the Clintons reveal that Hillary - who had more control over Bill and therefore his advisors than anyone else - consistently made bad calls on how to deal with crises (in a presidency that was one crisis after another, the totality of her decisions eventually led to the impeachment proceedings.)
The Paula Jones soap opera would never have happened had Bill listened to himself and his advisors rather than Hillary whose advice was to admit nothing, stall, stonewall anything other than admit to asking her up to his hotel room, via a state trooper. If that had happened at the outset the case would have boiled down to what happened in the hotel run - a classic case of he said she said.
What was so really peculiar about her decision was the existence of evidence, via the people involved in the incident, which was readily available to confute her it-never-happened schtick. (Hillary's 'story' of her Kosovo landing is an example of her seeming inability or whatever to realize or understand that her 'story' is instantly refutable.)
May 19, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Hillary's strength lacks subtlety, reason, or restraint and is also her greatest weakness.
It reminds me of someone in my family who actually looks a lot like her, talks like her, and has much of the same cultural background. They even have the same facial expressions like the same big eyed exclamation.
Tenacious? Pioneering? Tough? Sure. Absolutely convinced of infallibility and incapable of learning from mistakes? All of the above. Often to a point of self delusion and self destruction.
May 19, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've argued that this has more to do with her success in appalachia than either candidate's race. I grew up there, and willingness to use one's temper, to shout down your opponents, and to fight, are often respected qualities in a leader. that's not Obama's style, and in a lot of appalachia that makes him look soft. I don't agree, but hey, I don't live there anymore...
May 19, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of the books you've read, which are the top two you would recommend?
May 20, 2008 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Uncovering Clinton" by Michael Isikoff and the book on the Clintons, the name of which escapes me but it's by Carl Bernstein and came out fairly recently.
If you want to read a scathing book on Hillary, there's always "The Case Against Hillary Clinton" by Peggy Noonan, a self-described Hillary hater and a former speech writer for Reagan.
May 20, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fair criticism of HRC's campaign.
I liked Hillary until just before South Carolina. I thought experience was worth a lot and she had more (perhaps not 35 years,) but certainly more than Obama. I do think she has been eyeing the White House for years and voting accordingly, but so has Obama. He just is more subtle about it than she is. Had the war gone well, his vote against it would have hurt him. Even his criticism of it was hedged, "I'm not opposed to all wars, just dumb wars."
What lost me was Bill's claims about Jesse Jackson's '88 primary win, followed by the Sudan outfit picture, the "he might be a Christian." She behaved like a Republican when it was unnecessary.
What sealed the divorce was Tuzla and her campaign implosion. If you run on experience, you need to have a solid campaign organization. At the end of the day he came with a better team and a better game plan. He had some moments (Wright, "bittergate"), but his fundamentals were more solid. Simple as that.
May 19, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see this as hedging:
What he was saying is that he is not a pacifist, but that war should not be waged for the wrong reasons. What is "hedging" about that? What leader could be against all wars? Why is wrong with being against wars fought for bogus (or wrong) reasons, which describes the invasion of Iraq to a "T?" What would you have him say to make his point that this war was wrong, but another might be justified?
Agree with all your other points.
May 19, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's this sort of lack of political sophistication which explains why Rosenberg never accomplishes anything "on Capitol Hill."
Hillary lost because the Democratic Party's primary rules favored Obama.
He won Idaho? Mississippi? South Carolina? Whoopee! And the Michigan and Florida Democratic parties were too cheap to pay for their own primaries.
That's all ye need know.
May 19, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's campaign did indeed show deficient mastery of the rules.
May 19, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, we must ALWAYS bow down to "the rules"!!!.....errr what rules exactly are you talking about?
May 21, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
May 19, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only rule Hillary needed to know was the one that said Iowa comes first. That's why MJ is correct. There are no military bases in Iowa and no defense plants. Iowans Democrats are particularly anti-war. Hillary's strategy was focused on a Tuesday sweep of the big states and a general election campaign bypassing the activist base. She ignored the one activist base that mattered, the one in Iowa. Had Obama lost Iowa, he would have been stopped there.
May 19, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah that whole proportional delegates thing is really tough when you don't get the popular vote.
May 19, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pure bullshit! You don't know any of that.
Look MJ if this is your attempt at being graceful I can tell you that it is a miserable failure. And to bring up Ferraro and "busing" puts the icing on the cake.
If you are trying to be divisive at this late hour, you are doing a heck-of-a-job Rosy.
It is laughable that you say that the only reason Hillary had any opposition at all was because she voted for authorization. Most of those other candidates that ran against her voted for authorization too. But leaving that aside, you know very well why she was handicapped in her quest for the nomination because you were a card carrying member of the gang that orchestrated her defeat.
If you had an ounce of honesty in you, you would fess up that you and the rest of your media cronies had it in for her from the start. Pew research and other reputable media watch organizations have it documented . The TPM organization was a major part in the anti Hillary pro Obama campaign.
Apparently now you want to cover your tracks.
To think that Obama is some sort of prescient deity is bullshit. He has been voting for funding authorization all along so his so called “peace creds “ are pure myth.
You are a great bullshitter you know.
Now you are probably trying to throw cold water at a unity ticket.
That's the thing with you, we never know what your true agenda is. The propaganda style of your writing is obvious. One thing is certain you are hardly ever on the level.
If Hillary deigns to help Obama to avert a sure loss in November by getting on the ticket, it would be a sacrifice she would make for the good of the country, being that a McCain administration would most likely be a disaster for progressive goals.
Apparently that's probably what you are hoping for: a McCain administration, which I have suspected all along.
May 19, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is at stake here?
Is there any reasons for Clinton-supporters to do any of:
What difference will it make?
Does it at all matter who gets elected?
To whom?
To you as a voter, or to you as a political activist?
May 19, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is at stake? good question.
Probably minor differences within the ruling elite.
Maybe I'm simply fulminating like Dostoyevsky's Underground Man. Give me a cup of tea and some pleasant music and I might calm down.
May 19, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andrew Strat said:,
"Apparently that's probably what you (MJ) are hoping for: a McCain administration, which I have suspected all along."
yep, MJ is a closet Republican....probably a neo-con.
May 19, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lol. That would be pretty shocking.
But, speaking of closet Republicans and Machiavellian rats generally, Ferraro certainly comes to mind. Ferraro is a perfect example of someone who loudly pandered to token social liberalism to distract people and turn out rubes voting identity politics, while quietly running an economic agenda that's just plain crooked and sleazy.
Ferraro's platform was equal oppurtunity for rich white women to be racists, own and operate sweatshops, and generally be as crooked and immoral as any man.
It was a shameful and ill advised pander by Mondale to put her on the ticket when her personal morality and economic views were so lacking.
No more DINOs, no more RINOs. No more crooks. No more games and distractions. No more corporate oligarchs, war mongers, and other cons pandering to cultural wedge issues, for either side.
Irreconcilable cultural wedge issues out of politics.
May 19, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kozmik
I have a beef with you. You stole and perverted my old username: kosmotropic. Why would you do something like that?
May 19, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary is on the ticket in November, it will be doomed. Why? Because 1. Obama is running against politics as usual, therefore he would turn off the millions of new voters he has attracted. and 2. ALL republicans hate the Clintons. They will stay home if she's not running. If she is, they will come out to vote against her, regardless of the fact that they are being screwed 6 ways to Sunday by the McBush party.
May 19, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andrew Stat,
You need to take a cold shower and a long walk in the park. Really, you are too full of rage and projection to see reality. Calm the heck down for your own sake as well as ours.
Firrero is a selfish ass for saying what she did and encouraging others to imitate her example.
Just like Joe Lieberman, she puts her own idiosyncratic world view ahead of the interests of the Democratic Party. That's not a team player, that's a son of bitch you can do without. Ain't no other way to slice it.
May 19, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
HilLIARy was handicapped by her own inability to speak the truth, something you should remember to do when the cameras are rolling. She has no real idea of who she is, what she represents, other than a lot of bitter people clinging to an idea that she is entitled to a position of power and prestige because her husband, who she feels is dumber than she is, once occupied that position. Two wrongs don't make a right, and a Wright doesn't equal two wrongs. The old white man is in his glory while the supporters of the young,black man and the slightly more mature, in years anyway, white lady continue to fight a war that should be in peace negotiations.
May 20, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andy, I don't argue with bigots. Sorry, bub.
May 19, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could you tell me, M.J., what exactly Andy said that was bigoted?
May 19, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
My reply from another thread which seems exceptionally applicable here vis a vis "busing" and related issues involving Ferraro and racism
The battle for the heartoand soul of liberalism may be characterized (as one poster did)as the claims that we are talking past each other.
Let me start out by saying that some things are simply fundamental differences of moral instinct. So you are not going to convince a homophobe that homosexuals should have equal rights. But in a large number of cases this is not what is going on.
The white parent who did not want to see her child bused into a predominantly black school is generally accused of being a racist.
Rosenberg makes a big issue of Ferraro's alleged "racism" because she was against busing in New York.
Notice first, that the latte drinking set is always generous and magnanimous with other people's children. They themselves would never dream of having their children bused into a ghetto school. That's the Rosenberg "Smear Tactic" which is quick to label other people as racist and bigots but while they themselves live in the finest neighborhoods and send their kids to the best of schools. Beware of these!
The blue collar white person is not necessarily a racist. She knows what life in the ghetto is like. She knows under what conditions kids grow up in those environments and she does NOT WANT HER KID TO BE EXPOSED TO THAT. That's not racism. That's common sense. This is a basic point
At this point she is not a racist, she is someone concerned with the welfare of her kids as a parent should be.
True racism often comes about when having been unjustly smeared by the label "racist" by the latte set the woman begins to resent black people in general. That is, admittedly, a weakness. However, she also begins to resent the Latte Liberal who has his own kids going to the Bronx High School of Science while demanding that the working class mom have her kids bused into a ghetto high school. She begins voting against her own economic best interest and becomes a Republican.
That is what the problem is in a nutshell. There is no honesty in these kinds of liberals and their knee jerk followers. They are phony and insincere. They perpetuate racism amongst the people at the altar of a formulaic liberalism that demands other people make irrational choices for some greater good. Choices they don't have to make themselves
May 19, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, All your points are taken. So why does she say that Obama would not be where is is if he were not BLACK? Why does she say she will not vote for him?
I know you can't read her mind, and I realize she is probably just being petty and small-minded rather than racist, but if you really say you won't vote for Obama in November, I have to ask: Geraldine F --> Are you just a spoiled bitch who has to get your way, or are you a racist? I can't think of another choice.
Do you have another choice?
May 19, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is probably as racist or not as racist as you are. Don't like the "I'm less racist than thou" tone.
Don't know much about Ferraro. Thought she was a lightwight actually.
The comment she made about Obama being lucky to be black in these times rings true to me. I can't read her mind but I take it that what she means is that Americas are extremely willing to achieve some kind of racial reconciliation, and that that starts Obama off with a lot of extra credits just because he is a black man looks like he is very likely to advance that goal.
Biden put it in a lot more in-artful and inaccurate way I might add.
Obama is not Sharpton or Jackson. Obama truly seems to wants reconciliation. Obama is NOT a race hustler. Obama is a good man.
So I don't see what your problem is with Ferraro's comment. Do you disagree? You think he was UNlucky to be black so far in this campaign? I don't get your point unless you are implying that all those people who voted for Obama in the primaries ( black and white) did so despite the fact that he is black.
May 19, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The comment she made about Obama being lucky to be black in these times rings true to me.
Hmmmmmm. I can't imagine why people think of Andy as a bigot.
May 20, 2008 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Saying that Obama got to where he is because he is black sounds like the kind of thing an ethnic, northern Reagan Democrat who made her bones opposing busing would say.
Yes, there's plenty to find wrong with that statement, and if you're talented enough to make your way to a membership at TPM, then you know exactly what the problem is.
May 20, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to ask: Geraldine F --> Are you just a spoiled bitch who has to get your way, or are you a racist? I can't think of another choice.
I vote for spoiled b---- myself.
May 19, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm on your side, Andy. I don't like government social engineering or the people who are always eager to experiment with other people's children.
May 19, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Gawd, enough with the "latte drinking" bullshit. I was reading with interest until you employed the weakest cliche in modern process politics.
I was a barista at Seattle's Best Coffee in, you guessed it, Seattle (Northgate branch) at the height of SBC's rivalry with Starbucks. Lots of construction workers, cops, and service industry workers who worked at Northgate Mall. In other words, lots of Republicans and non-voters.
Liking good coffee (I hate coffee, BTW), and a willingness to overspend on it to your financial detriment, is America to a "T." Not blue America or red America, all of America. Just like maxing out your credit card with no plan how to pay it back, or driving a Saudi-supporting SUV you can't afford (to say nothing of the gas) is supremely American these days too.
May 20, 2008 2:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Same here, there are certain idiotic phrases employed in this race that just make me check out when I hear 'em.
May 20, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
What ghetto environment would that be? A school is a school is a school. Children are children. And what message do you suppose white children receive when it's apparent that your parents don't want you at that school with those kids?
There are white parents all over the country who hate the idea of busing. And it's because they don't want their kids going to a school with a bunch of black children. It has nothing to do with the "environment" the kids group up in. It's called racism. Am I supposed to assume that NYC's any different?
And to assume that all black neighborhoods are "ghettos," and by that I guess you mean drug-infested and violent, is racist as well.
There's more to racism than hate or resentment. Racism is the idea that another group of people are inferior and any bad thing is their fault. Conversely, because you believe in the inherent inferiority of the other group, any gains are explained as some sort of undeserved gift.
May 20, 2008 5:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think your slam of Geraldine Ferraro is absolutely wrong, but it's history, so why bother,
Obama won the small, early and what I would call the inconsequential for Democrats states such as Idaho, Wyoming, Mississippi etc. (as was posted earlier) because he captured the white, liberal anti-war vote and built momentum. But his 90% capture of the black vote since then could not possibly be because of Hillary's vote on the war and that 90% did not bring him much success since mid-February and in the big Democratic states.
But the point of your post - that you are a Kingmaker - did not go unnoticed.
May 19, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, quite a kingmaker. Hang around the Russell building sometime and you can give Obama, McCain and Hillary all kinds of unsolicited advice. Obama wouldn't know me from Adam.
May 19, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Google Ferraro and busing and see what you find. She has a record. It stinks.
May 19, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Ferraro's a perfect example of someone using social wedge issues to perfume their stench.
May 19, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, are you one of the last 3 people on the planet who think busing worked?
You're familiar with the history of busing in Boston, right?
May 20, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
African Americans are among the most, if not the most, anti-war bloc in the country.
Granted, some of the 90% had to do with Bill and other surrogates' racially insensitive comments. Otherwise, Obama wouldn't be getting 90%+.
May 20, 2008 5:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ, I think you're right that sexism isn't the cause of Hillary's loss. But it is something that both Hillary and Obama supporters do need to call attention to. It really is deplorable that so many sexist observations emanated from such educated cricles. There is a problem there.
Still, it's not to blame for Hillary's loss. Not even sure her war vote was entirely to blame, though it would have insulated her from competition, as you pointed out.
She ran a horrible campaign, that's what killed her. And when it didn't go her way, she chased some ugly parts of the American politic in order to attempt a comeback.
May 19, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to find numbers that suggest that Hillary lost votes because she's a woman.
But the numbers attesting to the fact that being black cost Obama Ohio, WVA and KY tomorrow are pretty convincing.
I don't think the race vote will matter that much in the general. Racists tend to vote for the Republican in November, regardless of who they vote for in the primaries.
For the Appalachia-Reagan Dem voter, it doesn''t matter so much that Obama is black as that the national Dem party is pro-civil rights. They have not liked the Dems since LBJ signed Voters Rights and the Civil Right Acts. We never carry the white vote and we surely won't with Obama. But it's not his race that is the issue but the Democratic party's stand on race. These antebellum Dems are not voting Democratic, no how, no way.
May 19, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point of correction: Obama didn't vote against the Iraq war. He wasn't in the senate at the time, and so he didn't have a vote. He did give a speech opposing the war at that time, though, so it's fair to say he would have voted against it had he been in the senate in 2002.
Clinton pointedly raised this, trying to portray Obama as all talk and no action.
I think her war vote hurt, because it provided Obama with an opening. But I've also been strongly turned off by Clinton turning negative when she fell behind. She's spent too much time saying that Obama isn't up to the job, or that he would lose in November, rather than better explaining why she would be good, and what vision she has for the country.
May 19, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Maybe I clicked Reply for the wrong person. My comment was in reply to eamseneca above.
May 19, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Strangely enough, Jesse Jackson Sr.'s speech against the war that day was well-noted, while Obama's went unnoticed and he had to pull out his copy later. No video of it either. I wonder if he whispered it just in case.
May 20, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ: This is wishful thinking. I hope you're right. It's not the racist vote we should be worried about, but rather the unconscious associations so many have on the issue. For example, a black candidate is likely to be seen as more liberal than a white candidate with the same positions. John Judis recently did an interesting piece on this in TNR. All I can say for certain is that it's hard to predict how, but race will play a factor in the election
May 19, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think there are numbers that show people not voting for Hillary because of her gender. But there are people like Chris Matthews and Andrew Sullivan, people who felt comfortable making sexist comments in the mainstream media.
Though, as I write this I realize that Matthews also couldn't shut up about Obama and basketball so maybe he's just a jerk.
May 19, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Destor's point is well taken. I've been solidly against Clinton since the beginning of this primary, and I agree with MJ that I doubt sexism was a big issue in terms of costing her votes. But the misogyny flying around in critiques of her has been really disturbing to me, as has the occasional attempt to dismiss it on the part of some media sage or other. I know that Clinton lost because she played the game badly, and that she's disliked mostly for her many unlikeable characteristics. But that doesn't change the fact that many of the expressions of opposition and hostility that I heard toward her, in the media and beyond, were beyond the pale in their insistence on gendering her negative traits and implicitly generalizing them to women as a group.
If anything, I think the backlash may have won Clinton votes. I know my few moments of fellow-feeling with her came when I was feeling feminist indignation on her behalf, and while that wouldn't have occurred to me as a sole reason to vote for her, I can't help but think that similar feelings must have solidified a sense of righteous anger and common cause among women supporters who might otherwise have reconsidered as her campaign went south.
So I'm chiming in not because I feel sorry for Clinton's treatment in the press; her campaign wouldn't have stayed alive without their acquiescence to her account of her own inevitability. But I hope that the coded misogyny in a lot of the language about her hasn't been declared fair game from here on out (I hope the same about racist code in Obama's case). The next viable woman candidate for president could really suffer if it has, so for her sake I hope we think about it.
May 19, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Besides someone is going to run against Hillary because of her vote for the war."
"Here's my vote for scapegoat. Whoever persuaded Hillary to vote for the war cost her the Presidency. It is that simple."
I disagree with Mr. Rosenberg strongly. In my case and in the case of many antiwar activists this was NOT a determining factor. In fact, I and many other opponents of the Bush Iraq war/occupation supported John Edwards despite his similar vote for the authorization to use military force. I forgave him and supported him just as I would have Clinton if her post-2002 activities in this regard showed a spirited intense opposition to Bush policies. They did not. Too often she was an apologist for the Bush disaster, most recently with Kyl-Lieberman, her comment that we were "safer" because of the Bush aggression, her attacks on Obama for daring to suggest no preconditions for talks with presumed "enemies", her reliance on the likes of O'Hanlon and Pollack as national security advisers. That is a formidable list. I have my reservations about Obama; but one thing particularly bothers me about Hillary. She says she is tough enough to fight back against the
right and to fight for the poor and middle class. But my question is why she has been so quiet for eight years, when the Bush assault was largely unopposed in Congress...she was a recognized leader...her opposition would have been amplified...it might have actually helped turn back the right wing earlier. If she is such a fighter, why hasn't she been FIGHTING?
May 19, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was originally a Hillary supporter, grudgingly discounting her 'political cover you ass vote to go to war.' But she also voted against the Levin Amendment and for the Kyl/Lieberman Amendment.
These actions alone by Hillary caused me to stop supporting her.
When she later accepted a fundraiser from Rupert Murdoch, then met with Richard Mellon Scaife, I wondered to myself; "who the hell is this woman?"
I knew then that my withdrawing support earlier was right.
Hopefully, Obama will be our next President.
May 19, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again John W shows how the Greatest Generation got its name. D-Day too!
May 19, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
M.J. -- Great essay. The war vote is what cemented my preference for Obama over Clinton in the primary. Obama, for opposing the war then and opposing it now. Clinton, for voting for the war then, and refusing, like Edwards did, to admit in hindsight that her pro-war war vote was wrong. HRC made the same mistake that killed John Kerry's candidacy (remember Kerry's Sept. 2004 comment that he supported invading Iraq even if there weren't any WMDs there?). My congressman, Tom Allen (D-Maine), had no problem in 2002 seeing that the Iraq invasion was not supportable, so he voted against it. I do not understand how HRC was incapable of examining the exact same intelligence material as Rep. Tom Allen and reaching the exact opposite conclusion in 2002 as Allen did.
May 19, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a test comment.
May 19, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a test response to your test comment.
May 19, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now this is a test subthread.
May 19, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto test
May 19, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Insurance extra test.
May 19, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ: There is some truth in your post. Hillary's vote on the war definitely was a huge factor in motivating the "netroots," former Dean supporters, to find another candidate to support. After nominating the "safe" choice in 2004, the liberal wing of the party was motivated to make sure the same thing wouldn't happen again.
More important, though, than HRC's vote itself was her unwillingness to acknowledge that it proved to be a mistake. Perhaps the campaign was looking to the general election, perhaps it was an admirable refusal to pander on her part, perhaps it's just not in her character to back down on anything, but whatever the reason, this cost her dearly. While Edwards was able to put his vote behind him by admitting his mistake, HRC's refusal to do so kept the issue alive and solidified opposition to her candidacy. In the early stages of the race, Obama's stance against the war was, in my view, one of the central arguments that gave his candidacy momentum.
You also pay short shrift to the effect of sexism. Polls consistently show that the number of voters who would not vote for a woman far exceeds the number who would not do so based on race. Sexism also played a part in the consistently negative coverage she received in the press. That, along with Clinton fatigue and the simple fact that reporters don't like Hillary, made her run an uphill battle, all talk of inevitability notwithstanding.
The other mistakes of her campaign have been well documented and picked over on this site. But I agree that the hostility engendered by her authorization vote gave Obama the opening and the momentum he needed. The rest is history.
May 19, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ: There is some truth in your post. Hillary's vote on the war definitely was a huge factor in motivating the "netroots," former Dean supporters, to find another candidate to support. After nominating the "safe" choice in 2004, the liberal wing of the party was motivated to make sure the same thing wouldn't happen again.
More important, though, than HRC's vote itself was her unwillingness to acknowledge that it proved to be a mistake. Perhaps the campaign was looking to the general election, perhaps it was an admirable refusal to pander on her part, perhaps it's just not in her character to back down on anything, but whatever the reason, this cost her dearly. While Edwards was able to put his vote behind him by admitting his mistake, HRC's refusal to do so kept the issue alive and solidified opposition to her candidacy. In the early stages of the race, Obama's stance against the war was, in my view, one of the central arguments that gave his candidacy momentum.
You also pay short shrift to the effect of sexism. Polls consistently show that the number of voters who would not vote for a woman far exceeds the number who would not do so based on race. Sexism also played a part in the consistently negative coverage she received in the press. That, along with Clinton fatigue and the simple fact that reporters don't like Hillary, made her run an uphill battle, all talk of inevitability notwithstanding.
The other mistakes of her campaign have been well documented and picked over on this site. But I agree that the hostility engendered by her authorization vote gave Obama the opening and the momentum he needed. The rest is history.
May 19, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry for the re-comment, my first was rejected with the curious but false tag that I had submitted too many comments recently. I haven't commented in a few days and even then, I am far less prolific than most.
May 19, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Way, way too simplistic to say Hillary's "vote for the war" cost her the election. The fact that Obama is black and got the support of 90% of blacks could have had a teeny weeny bit to do with it. Unless you are saying that if blacks had been split 50/50 Obama would still be the one who is slightly ahead. I hope you would never say anything like that.
Besides, Hillary never exactly voted for the war, and Obama only gave one speech against it. Once he was in the Senate he voted exactly the same as Hillary on all war issues. So again, you're being way too simplistic.
May 19, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
um...she cast her vote "with conviction".
how can you say she never really voted for the war, you brain-dead troll?
May 19, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
She voted for the war. 23 Senators voted "no." Had she voted no, she would have been nominated.
As for the black vote, had not the Clintons decided to use race against Obama, the black vote would have remained pretty much evenly split.
May 19, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama was not in the senate at the time of the vote.
How do you know how he