Progressives and the Housing Bailout
I have written at length about why the proposed housing bailouts in their current form are bad housing policy. The basic point is that they would have the government guarantee new mortgages at prices that are still inflated by the housing bubble.
This is bad for three reasons. First, because the prices are still high, it leads to a situation in which homeowners will pay far more on their mortgage and other housing related costs than they would to rent a comparable unit. This takes away money needed for health care, child care and other necessary expenses. That is not a favor to moderate-income families.
Second, since the deflating bubble will cause house prices to fall, homeowners in the bubble areas will not accumulate any equity. The third point follows directly from the second point: because prices in bubble areas are likely to fall below the guarantee price, the government is likely to have to make good on the guarantees. Handing money to banks for their bad loans is not good policy.
But there is a more basic issue that should bother progressives. Progressives usually argue for policies that benefit low and middle income people at the expense of the wealthy. This one goes the other way.
If the main beneficiaries of these bailout programs in their current form are the banks, as I would argue, then we are using taxpayer dollars to shift income upward. We are giving money to the banks' shareholders and their managers, some of the most highly compensated people in the country.
In much of my work, I focus on how the government sets rules for the economy that have the effect of shifting income upward. This is the theme of my book, The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer (free download available here).
Many of the ways in which the rules are set to redistribute income upward are somewhat subtle. For example, our trade rules put non-college educated workers in direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world, while leaving highly paid professionals largely protected from such competition. This raises the pay of doctors, lawyers, and other highly educated professionals at the expense of other workers.
However, in this bank bailout, there is not much subtlety. The banks made bad loans. Businesses are supposed to suffer the consequences of their business decision, good or bad. That's capitalism. However, instead of letting the banks live with the market, we're chasing after them with buckets of taxpayer dollars.
This is truly painful. We must have big fights to get a few billion dollars to provide health care or childcare for kids. How can we suddenly produce billions for banks, no questions asked?
There are many good things that we can and should demand that the government do. Giving taxpayer dollars to bankers is not on the list.













Well, the point here isn't to protect banks who made bad loans. That's just a side-effect of the real intention -- to protect home owners who were in many cases sold bad loans. If the only way to punish the banks is to let them foreclose on innocent people, then I'd rather not punish the banks.
In your posts on this topic you've way too blithely assumed that renting is just as good an option as owning for these people. It isn't.
Keep people in their homes first, worry about whether or not the banks get their just desserts later.
May 15, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
he's also assuming that his prediction of a national housing bubble has been proven correct when it hasn't.
his biggest concern is that if anything is done that prevents housing values from plummeting he won't have any convincing evidence that there was a bubble in the first place.
but in this case the falling values of housing are not a correction, but a spreading infection from the mortgage crisis.
May 15, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Banks." "Banks." Demagoguery.
Let's start by saying that when Baker writes "banks," he doesn't mean banks; he means Wall Street financial establishments.
The vast majority of banks in the United States are regional and community based and have very little exposure to the MBS and CDO "crisis." They are exposed to a potential CRE and C&D loan disaster -- if it occurs.
The Wall Street firms which are being bailed out are those denominated "too big to fail." And as a conventionally educated economist Baker approves -- although he'd rather see a governmental take over qua Northern Rock. Where the government would find the numbers of bureaucrats sufficiently experienced to manage JPMorgan, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Lehman, etc. he doesn't say.
Currently, the "bailout" calls for a massive transfer of retirees' income (interest rates slashed from 5.25% to 2.0%) to the banks for the benefit of younger workers whose jobs are said to be at risk in the absence of adding this liquidity to bank balance sheets.
Retirees are doing their share; it's time for workers (taxpayers?) to do theirs as well.
May 15, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen,
when it comes to replacing the bozos at Citigroup, Bear Stearns and other such places that wrecked their banks and put the financial system in danger, we can replace them with high school kids at the minimum wage and do better.
Given the demonstrated incompetence of the current crew, we really don't have to worry about doing worse.
May 15, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Taking full advantage of the "Greenspan put" may bespeak a lack of ethics; it doesn't demonstrate incompetence.
We should all be so incompetent!
May 15, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good point -- the minimum wage high school kids won't be as competent at ripping off the public.
May 15, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great blog. There were two sides to this mortgage mess. The banks that made loans to people with no real income to support the mortgage, and the homeowner who very obviously lied on their application regarding their income.
May 15, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is there anything an individual homeowner who has an Interest Only mortgage for 6 or 7 years which then switches to an ARM can do to stave off disaster?
May 15, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it misleading to talk of "homeowners" who have an interest-only mortgage -- i.e. little or no equity?
Many of the new class of homeowners never had the down payment or income to qualify for purchase of a home in the first place. They have little or no equity invested in the home. They are essentially renters. Should the taxpayers at large be paying to maintain the "owner" status of such people, rather than letting them revert to being renters?
Should the taxpayers bail out those people who refinanced their homes in order to buy a toy, such as an SUV, or a vacation?
Perhaps some of this "populist" sympathy may be misplaced, and works to the advantage of the morons who created the loans to cut their losses.
Moreover, a bailout this large puts the taxpayer, and the general economy, at great risk. Fannie and Freddy are overextended as it is, and this bailout puts them under even greater stress. The current mess is the consequence of "over-leveraging". To bail out the housing sector is more hair of the dog that bit us.
May 15, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's obvious to me that we are missing a very important point in the whole "mortgage mess" discussion.
Protection rightly ought to be offered to primary residences only. Keeping people in their homes, even at some cost, is a social good. Bailing out speculators, at any cost at all, or even none, is definitely not.
May 15, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where do you get the idea that anyone is suggesting that speculators -- by which I assume you mean non-occupant owners of single-family residences -- be bailed out?
May 15, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
What I am suggesting is that there ought to be a clear differentiation between a well-defined primary residence and an "investment property" in any discussion of this. Preserve people's homes. Full stop.
May 15, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are so few people screaming about this:
1. It allegedly involves economics, which most people don't understand. In fact, it involves arithmetic, which is easily understandable. Calculators are available for those, like myself, who are "arithmetic-challenged."
Also threaten people with economic collapse and most people wouldn't be sufficiently secure in their knowledge of the ways of CDOs and SIVs to say "what bunk."
2. Homeowners make up the majority of the electorate and are fearful of declining prices. Many people have their retirement money entirely in their houses and a decline in those prices will insure a meager retirement income. Further there are a lot of homeowners who took equity out of their houses to pay down credit cards, pay medical expenses etc., and will be upside down (even if they can pay the bill) if prices slide much more.
3. Most local and state governments are heavily dependent on property tax and developer revenue, and cannot afford fewer housing starts and declining property tax revenue. (That many government entities may suffer for years of reduced sales tax revenue because people are paying inflated mortgages and can't purchase other goods.
4. Have you any idea how much money banks, real estate organizations and home builders give in campaign contributions every year?
May 15, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Baker,
Very good post: you have raised some excellent points. You have not mentioned, however, the giant risk to the economy and the financial health of the country if Fannie and Freddie go under because of over-leveraging.
May 15, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
DHS,
I have great confidence that Fannie and Freddie will need to be bailed out. There is a second round of defaults and foreclosures coming that will be far bigger than round I. This will be middle class people walking away from homes that are now worth 20-30 percent of the outstanding mortgage.
Some folks are insisting that this will not happen because it has not yet happened. That ain't a very good argument. House prices are now falling at annual rate of close to 20 percent. There are a lot of people who may underwater by $10k-$20k now who will be underwater by $100k to $120k a year from now. If anyone knows someone who will pay off a $400k mortgage on a home that is worth $300k, will you send me their phone number?
Anyhow, this second round will both involve many more people and much bigger mortgages than the initial subprime round. And, many of the loans will be in the Fannie and Freddie pools.
So, look for many more surprised economists in the months ahead. You'll see them in NYT, on NPR, and Lehrer News hour. After all, the public would be ill-informed if it didn't have economists, who were completely surprised by economic events, to tell them what is going on.
May 16, 2008 8:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
And now, for the most important question!
Will the price of Rumpelstiltskin's condo ever come back down to $445k?
May 16, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: This will be middle class people walking away from homes that are now worth 20-30 percent of the outstanding mortgage.
As long as they can afford the payments on houses where they live, this won't happen. Moving is a huge hassle, plus doing what you suggest trashes your credit needlessly. So what if you end up paying more than the house is worth-- many of us are doing that on cars and other credit purchases, in some cases even on student loans. Inertia and hope that things turn around over the long haul will keep people in their homes. Speculators of course may walk. And we do have more resets coming. Still, I will be surprised if the magnitude of the problem worsens beyond what it is-- and equally surprised if it turns around at all in the next five years.
Re: If anyone knows someone who will pay off a $400k mortgage on a home that is worth $300k, will you send me their phone number?
Ever hear of a short sale? They are becoming quite common. Most mortgagees are giving carte blanche to owner-occupants who need to move (or who can't afford their mortgages but who can find buyers) and the tax laws have also been changed to allow this without tax consequence. People will be short-selling their homes rather than simply dumping them via foreclosure. The banks will take a hit from that, much as you wish, and short sales will speed the necessary decline of housing prices to rational levels, so why complain?
Re: And, many of the loans will be in the Fannie and Freddie pools.
No doubt some will be, but Fannie and Freddie are still somewhat picky about what they buy. Most of the foreclosures are going to remain on the books of the institutions who bought them or of the securities in which they were bundled, or of the debt collection agencies to whom they were finally sold for five cents on a dollar. (Yep, that's where bad mortgages go in the end: collection companies who figure they can either shake down the mortgager for a little bit more, or else will end up with the property to be sold for at least a small profit while continuing to dun the former mortgager forever after)
May 18, 2008 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
My main concern is that any current ideas in a housing bailout don't distinguish between good actors and bad actors on the buyers side.
Some people bought houses as investments, to flip them. We wouldn't bail out their stock portfolio, would we? Ditto to a lesser extent on people who bought second, third or fourth homes as rentals.
Also, some buyers deliberately gamed the system on some types of loans. In my suburban area of Dallas, I overheard a gentleman about 2-3 years ago, who obviously had a 2/28 ARM. He said that as soon as he had to start paying principal and interest, and at the reset rate, he was going to walk away.
May 15, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
But if he walks away -- and braggarts aren't famous for carrying out their threats -- he won't qualify for any bailout anyone's talking about, currently.
May 15, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: The vast majority of banks in the United States are regional and community based and have very little exposure to the MBS and CDO "crisis."
Ellen,
Many regional and even some local banks have taken a huge hit from the housing meltdown. These banks had mortgage units which two years ago were churning out mortgages by the gross-load-- and selling them to Wall Street at a sizable profit. Then Wall Street quit buying last year, and the banks got stuck with a lot of loans on their books they hadn't planned on keeping at all. And some of those loans went belly up. Very few banks are laughing about this mess.
May 18, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink