The Gas Tax Holiday: A Rare Teaching Moment in American Politics
There is a double entendre embedded in the phrase "public education" when it comes to how political leaders and the public learn from one another. Rarely has this process been so visible -- and vital -- as it has been this past week, when all three presidential candidates took positions and then questions on the federal gas tax holiday proposed for this summer.
Days after presumptive GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain came out with a proposal to lift the 18.4 cents-a-gallon federal gas tax during the upcoming summer months, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton did likewise, adding that she'd pay for the lost tax revenue with a windfall profits tax on oil producers. In short order, her rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, came out in fierce opposition to the proposal.
On the eve of the crucial North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Clinton and Obama found themselves finally having a policy debate on an issue where they are diametrically opposed.
Economists, experts, editors, and everyday people weighed in immediately with opinions about the proposal. One might think it would be a no-brainer -- how could anyone oppose the notion of providing relief at the pump to Americans watching helplessly as more and more of their disposable income gets drained at the gas station? And wouldn't Americans, in ask-a-stupid-question mode, agree, of course, we want to pay less, not more money on gas?
But "elite" opinion was almost uniformly contemptuous about the proposal. Examples from left and right:
• Tom Friedman of The New York Times: "So ridiculous...it takes your breath away"
• Jonathan Alter of Newsweek: "Hillary Clinton has now joined John McCain in proposing the most irresponsible policy idea of the year"
• Jerry Taylor, a fellow for the Cato Institute: It's a "holiday from reality"
• Robert Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration: "Stated as clearly as I can, it's utterly misguided both environmentally and economically"
• Max Schulz, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute: "I think it is close to political pandering. It is bad policy and political gimmickry"
• Harvard Professor and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Bush, Greg Mankiw: "What you learn in Economics 101 is that if producers can't produce much more, when you cut the tax on that good the tax is kept ... by the suppliers and is not passed on to consumers"
So said the experts. But what about drivers, taxpayers, and voters? What did they think of the idea?
Last Sunday, watching ABC's This Week, Americans saw what might have been one of the most incisive teaching moments in the 2008 presidential campaign thus far. Kara Glennan, an Indiana voter, asked Sen. Clinton this question:
"I have -- Sen. Clinton, I actually make less than $25,000 a year, so talking about gas prices is not academic for me. I really do feel pain at the pump. However, I do feel pandered to when you talk about suspending the gas tax. I don't think that it's really a reasonable plan, and call me crazy, but I actually listen to economists, because I think that they know what they studied."
To which Sen. Clinton replied:
"Well, I'll tell you what, I'm not going to put my lot in with economists, because I know if we get it right, if we actually did it right, if we had a president who used all the tools of the presidency, we would design it in such a way that it would be implemented effectively."
It is not clear if anyone immediately appreciated the teaching moment that had just passed. The following day, The New York Times published a poll on the gas tax holiday proposal in which "an overwhelming majority of voters said candidates calling for the suspension of the federal gasoline tax this summer were acting to help themselves politically, rather than to help ordinary Americans."
On the gasoline tax, the survey underlined the risk Mrs. Clinton is taking in embracing a position that most Americans -- including a majority of her own supporters -- appear to view as political pandering. More than 60 percent of voters in the poll said that Mrs. Clinton said what people wanted to hear, rather than what she believed. Forty-three percent said that about Mr. Obama, and 41 percent about Mr. McCain.
Public education -- in both senses, educating the public and being educated by it -- is a subtle matter. Not that our politics should be any more poll-tested than it is already, but the debate we are witnessing, as well as engaging in, on the gas tax holiday is a striking textbook case study of this subtlety.
It will be instructive for all of us to examine the exit polls and see how the voters of Indiana and North Carolina graded the candidates on this score today.














Yes. This is definitely a teachable moment. The part about 60% thinking Clinton is just pandering is especially educational when McCain, who actually proposed the tax holiday and without the big oil paying for it, scores as trustworthy on it as Obama. Clinton is pandering but Obama with his tag-along windfall profits tax and call for another stimulus rebate and McCain who originated this are not. Could it be that the pundits and economists calling it the unreal, ridiculous, utterly misguided worst idea ever (and I doubt they said this when Harry Reid pushed the tax holiday a couple of years ago) may have influenced voters as to their opinions on this?
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's ridiculous!!!
Are you implying that the Media is manipulating public opinion? That TPM Cafe is not totally "objective"? Shame on you for such heterodoxy!!!
May 8, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Obama and his supporters got schooled in that insisting on being intellectually correct on what is really a trivial issue economically ain't the best politics.
It's been a lot of fun watching educated Obama supporters kneejerking. Josh here and Duncan Black over at Eschaton are wonderful examples of the intellectual vanity to the Obama support online. (And I say that as a person of similar education level as they are.)
May 6, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you implying that there are Hacks around here???
May 8, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure cynicism and media reports factored into the "pandering" poll. Personally, as I've stated in another post and in several comments: I'd prefer to think of it as a political proposal, but one definition probably isn't any more valid than the other.
As for the whole "economists" thing, I'm under the impression that there has never been an economist President and Wikipedia appears to bear me out. Offhand, the only economist that I can think of who has ran for the office in the modern era was Sen. Phil Gramm and I'm pretty sure most visitors to this website would've opposed his candidacy.
If any science could run our government without weighing the political result, we really wouldn't need people and I'm sure Google or Multivac could easily construct a computer that would efficiently rule the land.
May 6, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, why should economists have anything to do with tax policy, right? The tax code--designed by lawyers and politicians--how's that working out for you?
While it is conventional wisdom that offering to give the voters a temporary payoff for their votes is a winner, it may turn out that he electorate, or at least a majority actually want to hear the truth and the hard work that will allow them to "solve" their problem rath3r than just feel better. It's like the whole world turned upside down.
May 7, 2008 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why aren't the politicians, including Obama, talking about the fundamental problems regarding oil: supplies are declining and demand is growing. Nor are the talking heads addressing this issue. I am reading "Twilight in the Desert," a 2005 publication by an oil analyst Matthew R. Simmons, about the imminent peaking of oil production by Saudi Arabia and its effect on the global economy.
One striking thing early in the book is a review of the oil embargo of 1973. It was motivated in part by the declining dollar (the guns and butter approach to fighting the Viet Nam war), and by Nixon's support of Israel in the Yum Kipper war. But more fundamental factors were the peaking of U.S. oil production in 1970 and growing international demand.
The Nation is not facing reality regarding the future of oil supplies and demands; and no one, neither the politicians nor the "talking heads", are educating the American public about the facts.
Apparently things will have to get worse before they get better.
May 6, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The answer to your question is, of course, that the general public doesn't want to hear about that.
A recent blog shows what happened to a president who did try to talk honestly about energy:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/the-moral-equivalent-of-war.php
May 7, 2008 3:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Carter did not have global warming on his side. That changes the game.
May 7, 2008 7:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's a sure bet that most Americans as well as persons in other parts of the world feel the producers, refiners, and distributors of oil have made quite enough money. It is ridiculous to provide them an opportunity to make even more. The windfall profits tax that has supposedly been made part of the plan should have been done already without any consideration of this goofy idea. No industry or company is properly entitled to the stratospheric profits registered by oil companies in the last year or two. Every individual and every other industry has been harmed by these prices and at the very least this gross imbalance needs to be addressed via an appropriately levied tax. At a minimum it would at least marginally address the appearance if not the fact that the industry has actively sought to obtain this result in the interest of profits.
If it were my call I'd have probably frozen oil at $75 or something like that. There is a point at which it becomes obvious things are out of hand and somebody has to step in and correct it. If this president, as he has repeatedly proposed, has the authority to do the things he has done then he sure as hell has the authority to put a stop to something that is very clearly harming the nation. That assumes of course that he actually cares about this country. NOT!!
May 6, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is Clinton allowing the oil companies make more money by removing the federal sales tax this summer? That doesn't make any sense.
May 6, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure it does, and if you are honestly puzzled, you might try reading Krugman's article discussing the effect of removing an excise tax on the pricing of a taxed good.
May 6, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet the situation has changed since 2000, imagine that! Gasoline inventories are at unusually high levels which means an excess of supply relative to consumption. In fact, gasoline inventories are at the highest average 5 year range and this is after the switch from winter to summer grade (with a rather deep discount in the winter grade gasoline) and refineries undergoing the usual yearly maintenance. We have consumers driving .08% less, the increased use of ethanol and increased gasoline imports. So it isn't supply and demand driving the cost of a gallon of gasoline, it must be, oh, I don't know, crude oil prices skyrocketing?
May 6, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are you blaming us for your lack of understanding? You want Hillary to be right. That's fine, but it doesn't make her proposal any better.
May 7, 2008 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
It does if you realize that the oil companies are far less likely to pass the break along than Clinton wants Americans to believe. They'll most likely say "Thanks for the money!" and pocket the additional $0.18/gallon for the summer months. And the chances of getting a "windfall profits tax" signed by Bush are, at best, infinitesimal.
She's blowing smoke, pure and simple, and most of us know it. The woman who asked why she was pandering knew it. The economic analysts from every part of the political spectrum know it. And Clinton herself knows it as much as all of us.
That's why they call it pandering.
May 6, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The oil companies do not get the .184 cents per gallon, it is a federal tax levied on the consumer, collected at the pump and remitted to the various tax entities by the retailer. YOU pay the tax, not the oil company, the oil companies won't be "saving" .184 cents per gallon, they don't pay it in the first place.
YOU PAY THE TAX. Here's an example - if you buy a shirt at a department store and pay 50.00 for the shirt, that is the money that the retailer gets for the shirt - 50.00. The retailer charges you 53.00 for the shirt, because he is acting as the tax collector for the various tax entities - HE DOES NOT KEEP THE 3.00 it is a consumer tax, he may remit some of it to the city, some of it to the county and some of it to the state, but the cost of the shirt remains at 50.00. If the state relieves the taxpayer of say 1.00 of that tax burden, the department store is not going to charge you 53.00 for the shirt, he will charge you 52.00 for the shirt, he can't collect an extra dollar in taxes and then keep it, he has to account for that money to the IRS. What's he going to tell them? "Yeah, I have a little extra money here that didn't come from sales, to tell you the truth, when you guys lowered the sales tax burden I continued to collect it to keep for myself." That would go over big with them, wouldn't it?
May 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will concede that you have a fuller grasp on the workings of sales taxes.
That said, if you think the $0.184 is going to make it to the pockets of gas purchasers, you are delusional. Your shirt analogy is fatally flawed - no one needs to buy a dress shirt to drive to work. Try driving for a while with the tank empty and see how far you travel. And with many if not most stations now owned by oil companies (independents are fewer and fewer in number is most of the country) your assertion that it won't happen is even weaker, as they may simply decide to raise their prices - or in this case, not cut them commensurately. And Clinton's "windfall profits tax", which has less than a snowball's chance, would be a direct levy on the oil companies in any case. And one that they most certainly would, as corporations are set up to do, pass along to their customers downstream.
So the upshot is, while your mechanics may be right, your big picture is most certainly either mistaken or a deliberate misrepresentation. Knowing your posting history as I do, I suspect the latter.
May 6, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't know shit, do you? Almost 95% of gas stations in this country are independently owned and operated. Their profit margin on the sale of a gallon of gas is around .6 cents per gallon.
No, you jackass, you don't need a new shirt to drive to work, I didn't claim that you did. It's an example of how sales taxes are collected and why the .184 cents won't go to the oil companies. They can't raise prices .184 cents, there would be no reason to do so, they don't pay the tax, the consumer does. The gasoline stations can't continue to charge the consumer .184 cents in sales tax that would be unlawful. The oil companies aren't saving any money, the gas stations aren't saving any money, the consumers are in effect getting an .184 cents per gallon break.
And no, dipshit, the oil companies aren't going to pass along a windfall profits tax because a windfall profits tax is not a cost of doing business, the tax is on adjustable gross income, not inventory or gross sales. There is no "possible windfall profits tax" deduction in maufacturing.
May 6, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The point is that the market for shirts and for gasoline are extremely different. On the supply side for gasoline we have an oligopoly, pretty much the same as a monopoly. Oil companies can set the price at what works best for them without worrying about competition. And many buyers have no choice at least in the short term. They have to drive to work. They will pay whatever is the going price. So the oil companies can determine what price works best for them. There is no need for them to lower prices if taxes are lowered. They can keep the same price and increase their revenue. In practice probably some small fraction of the tax decrease will be passed on to consumers because demand varies a little bit with price changes. The shirt market is competitive. If taxes are lowered and some sellers but not all lower prices correspondingly they will increase their sales. A seller that doesn't lower prices will lose sales and will feel pressure to lower the price as well. So lowering taxes on shirts will probably be mostly passed on to the consumer. With gasoline most of the change will go to increased oil company revenues.
May 9, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You never studied economics right?
You need to understand the shape of supply and demand curves for one.
May 7, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
well a modern day Aristotle you are not. Bev knows what s/he's talking about.
May 8, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The real lesson here is that Senator Clinton has decided that the ordinary small town voters she loves so much are extraordinarily ignorant, able to be flummoxed by someone like her in a heartbeat. I'm not at all sure that she is wrong about that.
In Josh's last Veracifier episode he pointed out that every time Senator Clinton makes one of her harebrained comments she gains in the polls. Next, I expect her to start talking about the soon to come Rapture.
May 6, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
When this all started, she was simply responding to one of Sen. McCain's proposals on an issue which had been effectively used against Democrats in the past.
May 6, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt she's after the "ordinary small town voters" as much as she's after the undecideds and the swayables -- folks not known for spraining a toe kicking the tires or looking under the hood all that closely.
May 6, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
As far as I can tell, the real teaching moment in this whole fiasco is how utterly horrid the average American continues to be treated by the political machines operating behind the 3 presidental wannabes.
As near as I can tell, the basics are thus: from 2 of the candidates, we are being offered the overwhelming sum of saving about $50 +/- on average on our gas expenditures over the summer. The remaining candidate says it's a cheap political trick, and wise up, America.
And that is what has been the point of contention in this ever unfolding scenario. Should we see it for the cheap stunt it is, or should we get off our high horse & be grateful for even this modest gesture?
An attempt to crack that nut occupies many these past few days, the conversation unfolds, engaging everyone from the so-called pundits, or political commentators, and their expert guests we see on our TV every night, to John & Jane Q Citizen in attendence at many various assorted websites & water coolers across the land.
But...hold up, here--is this the debate we really want our presidental contenders to be having? I mean...am I the only one that's deeply insulted by this cheap scam? Good grief, people, we are relentlessly weighing the minutae of these few bucks, while just a few feet away from us sits an ginormus, obscenely obese, spirit crushing $40,000,000,000 elephant we called Exxon or British Petroleum or Mobil.
Why aren't our leaders having that debate instead of insulting our intelligence & cheapening our existence with this continuous barrage of empty distractions & nonsensical non-solutions to our very real problems?
I dunno..I realize I'm over-simplifying, and not being very realistic probably..there are nuances & sophisticated ideoligies being hammered out...but I think the real teaching moment in this is that our politicians would rather play us for chumps than grab the bull by the horns and do what it takes to represent us, the average citizen.
May 6, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The lack of vision, here, is astounding!
Mullah Omar wouldn't give up OBL so we took over Afghanistan. Saddam wouldn't depart for the Central African Republic so we took over Iraq. And what did we get for all that? Tsouris, that's what we got; nothing but tsouris.
Think about it! How many of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudis? And has Saudi Arabia paid any price, at all? Have those fat royals been punished, appropriately? To the contrary! They're selling oil at $123/barrel!
All we have to do is march our troops south to the Ghawar oil field and it's ours. Problem solved.
May 6, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Simplicity means the achievement of maximum effect with minimum means." A. Einstein
Ha! You've got my vote, Ellen. You put these think-small panderers to shame.
May 6, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with that however sometimes I wish Ellen would be MORE expansive in her comments. You can only squeeze so much meaning into a sentence and some issues require more elaboration than she is willing to offer.
May 8, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think very little of the American public has been educated on this issue. In fact, the debate may well have framed things to make it worse.
The fact is that only about 20% of the world's reserves are under control of the oil companies, the rest of the reserves are under nationalized companies -- most in the Middle East, Russia and China. These are nations that are definitely not long-term allies of the US.
Ever wonder why Venezuela, despite Chavez's bluster, is still our 4th largest oil trading partner? It's because the US has the refineries to process their oil which is heavy and sour. I imagine that China is systematically building up their refineries to deal with this oil -- and then the US will be out of luck.
Finally, the public doesn't understand that the Saudis can no longer play the "swing producer" role and pump more oil to stabilize prices. Until 1973, the US was able to play that role -- and then the US went through peak oil. The Saudis took over that role, but over the past 2 years have not been able to pump out more oil -- despite their promises to do otherwise.
As a result, the speculators are now controlling the price of oil. It's really out of the US's hands. Moreover, more and more oil isn't even making it to market: it's already directly sold to other nations. What's worse, oil is beginning to be sold in Euros and Yen which will further destabilize the Dollar and give reason for oil exporters to sell in other currencies even more.
This chart from the US Goverment should scare people:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec11_20.pdf
Bottom line: the idea that it's the oil companies causing our woes is going to confuse the public. In very short order, the oil companies will lose most influence over the world markets -- and then if you want to lower the price, we are going to have to militarily try to take it. Not a particularly good solution since war uses a lot of oil.
To really educate the public, you will want the government to tell people to start preparing now for how they will heat their homes this winter. And to recognize that $4/gal gas is going to look cheap within the next 12 months.
May 7, 2008 3:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry BevD, there's some mistaken assumptions in there.
1. The gas suppliers sure as hell CAN raise prices $.184 - that's one of the problems with the idea;
2. There certainly IS a reason to do so - consumers have already indicated they will pay the higher prices, AND they don't have a substitute for gas - they have to have it, and they will pay whatever is charged;
3. You are correct that they gas retailers cannot continue to charge the tax, but they also DON'T HAVE TO LOWER THE PRICE. Nor are the suppliers obligated to keep the price they charge retailers the same.
May 7, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
@BevD
You need to read the law regarding this. The federal excise tax on gasoline is a tax on the producer of gasoline, not the consumer. The oil companies have passed this tax on to the consumer in the form of a higher price at the pump. But the liability for the tax is NOT the consumers.
This is the crux of the problem. Passing a law that suspends the tax liability for 3 months means that the oil companies don't have to pay the tax. There is no guarantee that oil companies will pass any savings to consumers in the form of a lower pump price. There is ample historical evidence that in situations like this the reduced tax liability do NOT get reflected in the price to the consumer.
May 7, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama trusts common man"
was the newspaper's headline for my published Letter to Editor in the Berkshire Eagle. It was similar to all the discussions here, that his diverging from pandering pooh passing as policy was significant.
Obama showed that he respected the electorate's common sense, including blue collars.
My letter provoked thirty some responses. Many respondees certainly didn't like 'Barry Hussein' but when I asked them by blog name if they thought the 'gas tax rebate' idea was useful or gimmickry none of them argued its merits.
Although it's obvious there's some latte-black animosity toward Obama, the fact that he takes principled (correct) stands even in heated situations is being recognized and will turn some votes his way.
May 7, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
On May 1 Pelosi announced that Congress would not consider the proposal to suspend the gas tax over the summer.
Just exactly how did Rodham think that she, alone, could enact her proposal. Forget pandering to voters, think outright lying to voters - like tell them something you know perfectly well isn't going to happen.
May 7, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are at least 3 negative aspects to the gas tax pander (a) it won't work (see my comment or other comments above for explanation); (b) it is terrible environmental policy; (c) it ignores the fact that the revenues for the taxes have positive affects; i.e. rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure (though it would be much better if a sizable portion of it went to alternative transportation projects).
This 3rd factor ties into a right-wing meme that currently rules all mainstream political thought, namely that taxes are all bad and we should always cut taxes, never raise them. In California where I live this has led to the destruction of a school system that was once one of the best in the nation and now is one of the worst. It has led to continually cutting money for health care, all education levels including higher education, money to help people with disabilities, etc. Even fire and police services suffer. All of this because people are unwilling to raise taxes even on the rich to help pay for this, and think there is no alternative to cutting essential services.
So when Clinton panders on this issue she is not only undercutting good environmental policy, she is supporting the right-wing meme on taxes. And this is for a tax cut that will actually benefit the oil companies far more than ordinary people.
May 9, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
you must have read the statement wrong, "More than 60 percent of voters in the poll said that Mrs. Clinton said what people wanted to hear, rather than what she believed."
Maybe you got a lesson from it, and your educational level doesn't matter.
What is wrong with having an education? You seem to be on of those ignorant people that fear people with an education and always hold it against them, for what, why? Simple minded!
I only have a high school and technical education, no Harvard degree, and I support Obama in this race. So the lie you believed that the media has feed you for months now, can finally be dispelled, because the highly educated are not the only supporters of Obama.
Stop showing you jealously regarding the educated.
May 10, 2008 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink