We're Living in Scarily Peaceful Times

I wrote this book for many reasons and it has many themes. But one of them - that I'd like to start with today - is about nature of the world out there. What is the international system in which the United States currently exists? How dangerous is it? Why? Those questions are in some ways fundamental to our understanding of American foreign policy. In my book, I take the unconventional view that we're living in a remarkably benign international environment.
We have done a great job of scaring the hell out of people, telling them that they are living in frightening times. You know the list: terrorism, rogue states, Iran, North Korea, a revanchist Russian, an expansionist China. Throw into this mix suspicions of Indian outsourcing and Mexican immigration and it seems as if the world is ganging up on the United States. In fact, the data overwhelmingly shows that we're living in more peaceful times than at any point since the early 1950s, and perhaps in several centuries. (Harvard's Steven Pinker says, "the most peaceful times in the species' existence.") Wars, civil wars, deaths are all down, down, down over the last twenty years. And economic growth is up across the globe.
The fear of terrorism and the rise of the "Homeland Security State" has been much remarked upon by now. But even as evidence piles on that the terror groups we huddle in fear of are actually quite small, dysfunctional and unpopular - it doesn't change out basic policies. And while this whole phenomenon is largely a product of the right - that have decided to scare us all because that helps elect "tough guys" -- the left sometimes beats a similar drum for different reasons. To argue that the Bush administration has been incompetent, it argues that we're all much less safe than before. (Of course, the right is far more guilty of fear-mongering- remember Rudy Giuliani on the campaign trail?)
The new and most dangerous twist to all this is that our great looming danger is Russia, China, and the rising oil dictatorships. McCain's rhetoric, which almost invites a new Cold War, and some of his most absurd proposals buy this dyspeptic view - expel Russia from the G-8 and permanently exclude China. This is a worldview bereft of any historical perspective. Compared with any previous era, there is more economic integration and even comity among the world's major powers. The imbalance between the West and the rest is large, not complete but large and in most areas increasing. The newly emerging states want to grow within the existing world order, which John Ikenberry has nicely described as "easy to join and hard to overturn." The world is going our way, slowly and fitfully, with some detours. No great power has an alternative model of modern life that has any real attraction?
The result: we magnify small differences. We define deviancy down, so that any expression of national pride or interest by Russia or China becomes evidence of inevitable great power conflict. (Note: I fully accept that we may have to disagree and contest some of these definitions of national interest but isn't this normal international politics? Don't we have to do this with the French every month?) Are we expecting that countries will accept every definition of order, interest, and values that we propose - and if not, it is aggression that must be combated? My fear is that the United States continues to have a maximalist view of international security - which sees any deviation from what we want - as evidence of evil. Rising powers will almost by definition not be willing to accept all our terms. Our reaction to them then contributes to international tension and great power hostility. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The world does become more dangerous.














I like it. It is an excellent exposition of the world today.
I manage to travel a lot, and it is such a pleasure to go to another country where people are concentrating on living their own lives and not trying to control others' lives. I went to Belfast a year ago, a city now at peace with the pubs full of happy people, and next week I'm going to Croatia where I expect to see a similar transformation and some more friendly people.
The terrorism scare in the US has truly been mega-hyped. On the freeways in the Southwest one has to go through Border Patrol checkpoints manned by rude, poorly trained guys in brown uniforms with a large sign overhead proclaiming "Threat Level -- Elevated" which is baloney. The terrorism statistical threat to Americans is way lower than real threats from cancer, heart disease, auto accidents, bee stings and bath-tub slips. The US is now under fourteen, fourteen, national emergencies annually renewed by George W. Bush. There is not a peep from Congress on any of this hoqwash because it means more money for aircraft carriers and troop bases in their districts to counter the "elevated threat."
The story is that "they hate us for our values," when polls show that no, other people in the world hate Americans for their behavior.
Currently there is growing anti-Chinese movement, with the Dem presidential candidates particularly sounding off on a boycott while the Pentagon gets ready for the next "big one" against the Chinese people. Imagine, a country that is currently brutally occupying two other counties and bombarding a third picking on another country for repressing internal dissension, as is their sovereign right. But there has been anti-Chinese racism in the US for a long time, going back to the Chinese Exclusion Act and before.
There are signs hope that current problems will ease and the general peace will continue as the declining fortunes of Americans contribute to some national humility and a more realistic outlook on the world. Fareed Zakaria's book should be helpful in this regard, from the looks.
May 5, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
@don bacon
I'm going to Croatia where I expect to see a similar transformation and some more friendly people.
If you were any dimmer you'd be an inanimate object.
May 5, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I understand that it's your "schtik," but don't be rude. This is a platform for conversation, not a place for you to run around calling people names for fun.
May 5, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
@Andrew Golis
Talk about double standards, Andrew. Review the threads. How many times do "progressives" call their opponents names - and I don't mean just public figures, I mean opposing posters? Multiple times. And how many times do you reprimand them?
I've already spoken about the impossibility of policing (censoring) political discourse. I'm hardly alone - the framers of the Constitution were on my side.
Face it. You have difficulty tolerating opposing points of view...as do most people. I can appreciate your attitude. It's primitive but entirely natural.
I also have to ask whether someone who thinks Croatia might be an island of peace and stability compared to the United States can be referred to in any way other than the one I chose.
May 5, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, since you didn't actually make an argument and just called him stupid, I think it's safe to say this has nothing to do with censoring people's beliefs.
This isn't an optional request. Shape up or have your posting privileges removed. It's pretty simple.
May 5, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
OTY,
I never said nor implied that Croatia is more peaceful than the US. I was referring to the transformation in Croatia from war to peace, similar to my Belfast example, and "more friendly people" again reflected back on Belfast -- more as in additional. My intent was to back up the author's point that the world is more peaceful now than in past times, and I simply gave two examples. It's a pity that you were unable to understand that simple point, especially when I did not mention the United States in that context. Or perhaps you did understand, who knows.
May 5, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
OTY,
It just occurred to me--you probably don't have a clue about what Belfast and Croatia have been through, do you? Or where they are? And the importance of the fact that they are experiencing peaceful times now?
Here's some facts to get you started: Belfast is in Northern Ireland and Croatia is a part of the former Yugoslavia. The rest is up to you.
May 5, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most historians agree that throughout recorded history there have only been four nations that have experienced world-wide unprecedented economic prosperity - Spain, the Netherlands, Great Britain and the United States.
Once any nation, or nations, was in a position to challenge the economic supremacy of the European nation, she went into economic decline. The Netherlands and Great Britain survived relatively in tact but certainly far less prosperous. Spain didn't. The question is, will the United States recognize, accept and adjust to the end of her unprecedented economic prosperity, or will she go the way of Spain.
May 5, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You make some really good points, but I have to disagree with you on China. Maybe some anti-China anger has a tinge of racism to it, but I think more of it is based on misplaced anger about outsourcing, or moral outrage about their position on Tibet and Taiwan. "Repressing internal dissension" violently is hardly a "sovereign right." America's hands aren't totally clean either, but we've at least tried to make amends when it comes to the repression of minority groups and the taking away of their land. The question is more whether or not we have the standing to criticize Chinese abuses than whether or not they're being abusive.
May 6, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The big thing that's not mentioned is the increase in problems within borders such as genocide. While interstate conflicts are on the decrease, genocides and other such inter-ethnic conflicts seem to be on the increase. These also seem to be more difficult to handle because there is less of a school on how to handle inter-ethnic conflicts than interstate conflicts (Just as a tiny example of how relatively new the idea is, my spell check will not accept inter-ethnic as a word without the hyphen, but will accept interstate. -.-) So should we get involved there, and if so, is there a school of thought to rely on in trying to fix the problem?
May 5, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
@Zakaria
I think it is you who lack historical perspective. The most dangerous times are those which occur when major wealth and power shifts are under way...and the most peaceful times normally precede them.
May 5, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great book. Fareed Zakaria has the kind of smart mind America sorely needs today at the highest levels of the State Department and government.
Ignore the ignoble OTY commenter.
May 5, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would be totally ignirant to have this view, " My fear is that the United States continues to have a maximalist view of international security - which sees any deviation from what we want - as evidence of evil." Obviuosly you feel the same but nonetheless it would be naive and ignorant to think that every countries solution to their problems lies in being more American. We do not live in a world that supports one type of solution in fact as nature points out endlessly their are nurmerous ways to solve unique problems. To even entertain the idea that there is one way and not many ways to solve any problems facing us as individuals much less as a nation is to beleive that there is an end to proble solving. We live in a world which is complex to begin with, and the revelation of new information via science, sociology, anthropology, etc. reveals the dynamic and constantly evolving environment which demands flexible and dynamic fixes that aid in creating solutions. Different cultures might have different types of democracies which suite their environment much more successfully. Of course this demands that we listen to all aspects which affect the stability of a natin and a culture even if those perspective run counter to the solutions we have developed for our culture. This does ot run counter to American thinking rather this is the essence of Americanism. E pluribus unum, the important part being both the many and the one. You can not have one without the other therefore we can not and should not entertain dialogue which limits the voices of the many simply because it rubs us the wrong, rather we should listen to all the voices to truly understand the differences we have so that our solutions relate to all apsects of the issues.
May 5, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Insofar as Steven Pinker is a psychologist and cognitive scientist, I don't see any reason to respect his views on the peacefulness of the world.
May 5, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know who you mean by "we". Are you referring to the press or to Americans in general? In poll after poll, Americans say that the worst problems we face are the economy, the war in Iraq and the cost of health care. Unless prompted few Americans name security or the threat of terrorist attacks to be major problems for the nation.
If the media is concerned with security both national and international, and see all other countries as threats, it is because their source of information comes from other news pundits and the media. It is not the American people who are so concerned, so worried about national security and see every other country as a threat, it is the media who constantly enforce and re-enforce each others' superficial concept of the world.
The major reason for this is the inflated egos and conceited belief that their opinion actually matters, that they really are writing the first draft of history (which of course they are not) and that they should have an influence on outcomes and decisions made by the people and the government. They no longer feel it necessary to inform readers and viewers of what happened, they now think it their duty to speculate as why something happened and what might happen in the future because of it. This fulfills the need of the media to be "players" in events, instead of observers and avoid reporting on the much more difficult to understand issues such as the economy and health care. It is also far more glamorous to offer opinion and speculation on worldly events than to write articles that require slogging through government reports and textbooks explaining the workings of, say, health care or free trade agreements.
I wonder at your claim that the left's argument that Bush is incompetent creates more fear in Americans - why do suppose people think that? Bush is not incompetent, Bush is doing exactly what Bush said he was going to do, from the invasion of Iraq to the withholding of federal help to areas destroyed by Katrina - anyone who had paid attention to the 2000 debates would have been able to predict this outcome. Instead, we had a press fixated on candidate Gore's wardrobe, or recycling reports of other journalists on the "lies" told by Gore, or complaints of journalists who were "bored" during the debates because to them, Gore was boring, too cerebral, not beer buddy material and too ambitious.
You now argue that McCain is using those fear tactics of the right and the left to scare Americans and yet Americans aren't scared of China and Russia, it isn't even on the radar screen and instead of informing Americans that despite what McCain says, no other country is going to support McCain's policy and the chance that he might enact such a policy is zero, you choose to re-enforce his fear tactics. McCain is brazenly lying to the American people and instead of informing the public that this policy will be impossible to enact, you yourself frighten Americans with the specter of an alienated America, bereft of friends and a surfeit of enemies.
Frankly, there is no "we" or "ours" here - there is a you and your cohort who endlessly speculate in the echo chambers of book launchings and cocktail parties and foundation seminars and lectures, who have no idea as to what really worries Americans because you no longer have to worry about them. You have jobs, you have health care, you have pension plans - what you don't have is the fear that you won't have a job, you won't be able to make a living, you won't be able to afford health care and you will never be able to retire. It would seem that instead of speculating on which side is striking the most fear in Americans' hearts over foreign policy, you might want to know what it is they really fear and why they rightfully fear it. You needn't fear that "we" Americans have a "maximalist view of international security" because "we Americans" don't have this view, we're too busy worrying about making mortgage payments and filling the gas tank and feeding our children to form "maximalist views".
May 5, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said, BevD!
May 6, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
@Andrew Golis
"Ignore the ignoble OTY commenter."
Hello, Andrew. Where are you? Don't tell me you've fallen asleep so quickly?
This comment is particularly rude since - it turns out - I like Fareed Zakaria most of the time. I just disagree with him here because I think he is being particularly obtuse and partisan.
The idea I mentioned is one advanced by Niall Ferguson in "The War of the World" and Paul Kennedy in "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers". The authors are mainstream figures of great stature and I'm sure Zakaria is well-aware of their ideas. No need to mention them to him. Nor is it necessary to tell him that in the last 40 or 50 years the United States has passed from oil independence to absolute dependence, from the world's greatest creditor to the world's greatest debtor, that the dollar's position as reserve currency is steadily eroding (most recently noted yesterday in a Bloomberg article), that manufacuring is largely done elsewhere, and that the process seems to be accelerating.
Is it my fault that NobleCommentDecider is both ill-mannered AND ignorant?
May 5, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to make an argument, make an argument. Say you think people are wrong. Lose the name-calling and the name-checking of me. That's called being a troll.
May 5, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
@Andrew Golis
I'm waiting to hear you give the same advice to NobleCommentDecider and, after that, to all those partisans who I can easily find on this and other threads.
For example
Don Bacon use "baloney, hogwash, racism, brutally" is his "reasoned" argument that we - the United States - have no right to criticize anybody for anything.
Once Again here's NobleCommentDecider
Ignore the ignoble OTY commenter
Well, since you didn't actually make an argument and just called him stupid, I think it's safe to say this has nothing to do with censoring people's beliefs.
Really? No argument? On the contrary, it's called argument by literary device, argument by ridicule, by satire. It is often considered appropriate and is very, very common as I've already explained.
Here's Don Bacon using a version of it
Imagine, a country that is currently brutally occupying two other counties and bombarding a third picking on another country for repressing internal dissension, as is their sovereign right.
Since I've posted to other threads I'll return with more from them at my convenience.
May 5, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is your last warning. This is not about other people, it's about you. I'll take a look at their work and decide for myself it it warrants a warning. So please don't bombard me with quotes.
For right now, I need you to stop changing the subject and acknowledge to me that you recognize that you're being warned and will stop being disruptive.
May 5, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
@Andrew Golis
Sorry Andrew, I am not a child and you are not my father. Your critique is unreasonable and self-serving and I prefer not to post rather than continue under your strictures.
I hope you will have the courage and decency to post this.
May 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure how it serves me, but ok. Feel free to come back if you can lay off personal insults.
May 5, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I gotta say, you seem to be unfairly singling out offensivetoyou for his comments. I know it is a Cafe, but is it a tea party also?
I appreciate your policing of the discourse, but this borders on censorship. If you don't like a guy because you think he is a jerk, say so, and point out the issues you have with his tactics. You've done that, and good job. By why would you ever censor him for doing exactly what is done thousands of times a day here and elsewhere. I usually am just a reader at the Cafe, and used to the rough and tumble over at Election Central. But this is a proccedural issue, and I feel I should say something. I value contrary opinions, wit, biting sarcasm, even the occasional insult as a way of getting a point across. Have you ever listened to "Prime Minister's questions"? Much worse has been said there, and more and less artfully, about the opposition. In any event, this is the internet, hardly the bastion of propriety the British Parliament is. You are being a bit holier than thou if you think you can decide what is and isn't over the line here. I know you are the King of this thread, and bully for you.
Back to my reading, but I hope offensivetoyou doesn't leave here for good, he is insightful and intelligent, if sometimes "offensive to you".
As for the substance of the debate, I am thinking about it....and will get back to you.
May 5, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I went over to TPM Cafe, and an Election Central broke out!
May 5, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
"To argue that the Bush administration has been incompetent, it argues that we're all much less safe than before. "
I wouldn't put it quite like this, although that may well be true.
I would argue that Bush's incompetence - diplomatic, military, economic, among other things - has made it increasingly difficult for the US to provide quality leadership by example and to assert a positive influence on the course of global events.
I think Bush and his ideological surrogates have squandered away much of what the world used to admire about us.
May 5, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
BevD: simply stated--Bravo!
The sobering reality of our times is the sight of our media, first a few at a time and then en masse, deserting their presumptive role of speaking truth to power. Instead, they simply pass them the hors d'oeuvres.
May 5, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. How do these people get so much wrong so much of the time and still remain employed?
Here is what Zakaria said about the Gore/Bush debate the next day, after the pundits all agreed that Bush won, even though the public thought differently - "[Bush won] because his answers were simple, direct, tough and straightfoward." And this comment - "George Bush seems to believe that the Clinton administration...has been trumpeting American military might...there is a sense in the Bush camp that this has become counterproductive and produced a backlash...I think this derives from the elder Bush." Of course, by the next night the "conventional wisdomers" had all convinced themselves that Bush was "direct and straightfoward" and Gore "wishywashy" and veered into "historical asides." Obviously, a knowledge of history by a candidate is considered a drawback - they like them "direct, tough" and and a full explanation is boring.
May 5, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - I would not have published that last OTY post. You are a more patient man than I. One would think that more people would understand that it is not an easy role to play - moderator - and at least put on that hat themselves, even if just metaphorically.
Onto Mr. Zakaria: this might be an interesting tome. What we do not have - even almost eight years after we were attacked - are real metrics on just whom we are fighting and how many of them are there?
My consulting days taught me that "what gets measured, gets done". If we have no metrics for this "war on terrorism", how can we ever hope to win it?
We do not know how many members al Qaida had in 2001 or how many it has today; we do not know what the delta in their membership is from year to year - or even if that time period is too broad or too narrow and that we should be tracking their growth (decrease) from quarter to quarter or month to month. I could fill several pages of metrics that I might think we need - but I am not a terrorism "expert" (should any actually exist); how is it we are closing in on a decade into this war and we are so far away from progress on "the known unknowns"?
Condition orange? Spare me.
May 5, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
there were no terrorists on 11/09/01
there are no terrorists now.
other than the two ultimate terrorist states: the usa and israel.
May 6, 2008 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
What happened on Nov. 9, 2001?
May 6, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink