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The Speech Obama Can't Give

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Last week in The New Yorker, Rick Hertzberg wrote about Hillary's aggressive style and Barack's response.

She has been relatively unrestrained in her battle with Obama, but he has had one hand tied behind him in his battle with her. He cannot mention many of her biggest general-election vulnerabilities, most of which involve her husband's Administration, the awkward role that he might play in her own, and the potential conflicts of interest posed by the funding of his charitable and commercial activities. Bill Clinton remains popular among Democrats, if not as popular as he used to be. Anyway, all-out attack would undermine the unifying theme of Obama's campaign.

Recognizing that Obama cannot take on the legacy of the first Clinton Administration head on, I've written the speech Obama can't give.

* * * *

I want to speak tonight to the citizens of Indiana and North Carolina. You have it within your power to finally decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. If on May 6th, you decide to entrust the democratic nomination for the Presidency to me, then it will be mathematically impossible for my opponent to win a majority of the delegates. For the party insiders, the establishment built by the Clintons in the 90's, to overturn the will of the majority, would be a mockery of our party's heritage.

But on that day that you choose me, then I believe Mrs. Clinton would step aside seeing no route to the nomination. And I believe our party will be quickly unified to end the 8 disastrous years of Republican rule in the White House. John McCain offers the country four more years of George Bush's endless war. Four more years of pouring $12 billion a month into Iraq and Afghanistan instead of Americas crumbling infrastructure and schools. And four more years of financial crisis with the White House controlled by special interests and lobbyists. It's no secret that John McCain and his new found backers like Rush Limbaugh want to run against Hillary, not me. They don't want things to change.

Mrs Clinton promises she "will fight for you." But in the eight years of the first Clinton Presidency that she claims so much credit for--whose side did she take? Did the Clintons take the side of Big Media/Telecom in the 1996 Telecom act or did they take the side of the people? You know the answer. Did the Clintons take the side of the Big Drug companies so they could advertise prescription drugs or did they do the sensible thing and leave it up to doctors to decide what to prescribe? You know the answer. Did the Clintons take the side of Sandy Weil, when he merged his investment Bank/Insurance conglomerate Travellers/ SmithBarney with Citibank--against the rules of the Glass Steagall Act--or the side of the public, who now can't get credit to buy a house because of the oversecuritization of American finance that has crashed. You know the answer. I could go on about the Clintons and the big business wing (the DLC) of the Democratic Party. I could tell you that Hillary did her part to sell NAFTA and its only since she started running for President that she has pretended to be against the treaty. Now those of you who have heard me talk before, know that I believe in an America that embraces the green movement we can create new jobs that pay like the good jobs at the Suburu Plant in Lafayette Indiana or the good jobs in the research labs of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. But we've been losing those jobs since the late 1980's.

But to get to that place of real reform we will have to change the culture of Washington--and first place to make that change is within our own party. I have no doubt that we can unite the country because I sense this great desire for change everywhere I go. The question for you is do you really want to change America. And if you do, where would we start? I would start at the source of our current troubles--The War in Iraq.

Two of the people who held the power to take us into the War in Iraq are running against me....And you know what they did with that power. My opponent John McCain still believes he did the right thing and one of our clear differences will be over that vote. Mrs. Clinton, on the other hand says "she wishes she had the vote back", but refuses to take responsibility for her actions. It is time for a change because they both were wrong in that fateful decision to spill our blood and treasure on the sands of Iraq. It is time for a change.

North Carolina and Indiana--you both excel at my sport, Basketball. Lets make this our version of the Finals. If we finish strong, we can get on with the real work of this campaign which is ending the eight year nightmare of George Bush's rule. Thank you.


28 Comments

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I feel like one of the Professor's students who hasn't heeded his lectures on Barack's virtues and the need to play fair,,and I also think that Barack is brilliant, a great speaker etc. However, Hillary has won the big states like NY, CA, PA, OH, FL etc that are essential to winning the big election, and her appeal to a broad cross-section of voters is pretty compelling. In all fairness to Democratic delegates from Wyoming or Mississippi or South Carolina, they can't deliver their states in November and they are going to the convention mainly to have a good time. Hillary has the momentum and wins the most populous states and those who play a strict numbers game without nuance are making a huge mistake.

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Those states you mention, minus Florida, add up to 137 electoral votes. I subtract Florida because I don't think either Dem can beat McCain there, and I haven't seen one EC scenario by which Clinton can get to 270. Even with a slim lead in FL, she loses to McCain by current projections.

Obama is not going to lose CA or NY to McCain. Clinton is not going to take my state, Iowa, or Wisconsin, maybe Minnesota, Oregon and Washington will go McCain too against her.

The "big state" strategy wasn't enough to win the primary, it won't be enough to win the GE

NICE SPEECH...NOW GET IN CHARACTER

Convince me. Wiggle into the skirt and try again. You nailed the menstruation now go the distance. Hissy fit would get you there. Or you could just have spared us the jabbering word salad and screamed the "C" word at your female co-workers. Works for me.

Sincerly
Rev Wright

Sir can you spare some "Change We Can Belive In"?

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Your trolling is as obnoxious as your avatar. Name calling and hyperventilating.

Please see the article on the front page of TPM, Getting Real, about the fallacy of this argument. It is, in fact, a non-argument. A falsehood. As in, not true. Phony. Fake. Doesn't hold water.

I like the speech and thanks for taking the time to write it.

I disagree entirely about Bill Clinton being the major source of her GE vulnerabilities.

In the last six months alone, Hillary has built a stockpile of weapons for the Republicans to attack her with.

I've posted about this before:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/superdelegates-maybe-hillary-c.php

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YEah, there's a good strategy -- take all of the problems we have now with media consolidation, the banking crisis and pricy pharmaceutical problems and blame them not on George W. Bush but on the last Democratic president.

I think John McCain is spoofing Jonathan Taplin's account.

Obama isn't not giving this speech because he's a nice guy. He's not giving this speech because it's bad for our side and he's smart enough to know it.

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Ugh, here's a non-typo version:

Yeah, there's a good strategy -- take all of the problems we have now like media consolidation, the banking crisis and pricey pharmaceuticals and blame them not on George W. Bush but on the last Democratic president.

I think John McCain is spoofing Jonathan Taplin's account.

Obama isn't not giving this speech because he's a nice guy. He's not giving this speech because it's bad for our side and he's smart enough to know it.

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Destor,

We can't keep electing DINOs and hoping things actually change.

Many prominent Democrats have been DINOs since the 80s, selling out the middle class along with Republicans. The epitome of that movement has been the DLC, New Dems, neo-liberals which the Clintons represent more than anybody else save perhaps Joe Lieberman.

All the issues Taplin mentioned, he's right about. They were all sell outs. The Clinton's major policy planks sold out the middle class for some naive laissez faire notion of trickle down that never happened.

Hillary's HCI plan is great, if you disregard that it will never happen. NAFTA was a great idea, if you disregard that the job retraining and investment never happened. Etc.

DLC economic policies are Republican laissez faire with wondow dressing. In the end we just get the laissez faire part. They don't work.

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I like the speech except for conflating Afghanistan and Iraq. The majority of American people rightly see stabilizing Afghanistan as a valid mission. So does Obama. It's not an easy task but it'll be doable with a better president, better diplomacy, and withdrawing from Iraq.

Destor please go read some history from the 1990s.

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I lived through the 1990s. And like a lot of lefties, I thought Clinton wasn't progressive enough. That's not my objection here.

My objection is that it's a bad idea to have our nominee head into the race against McCain by running against Bill Clinton's record. There's one record we need to concentrate on and that's George Bush's. Which is why I think Obama is pretty brilliant for calling McCain's campaign an attempt at a "third Bush term."


Obama and Edwards did NOT even campaign in FL and...do you really believe Obama will NOT win CA, OH, NY, NJ or PA...really...?

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I don't "really believe Obama will not win" those states against McCain as 1question wrote - I'm not a strategist - all I know is that he didn't beat Clinton. The Democratic front runner and nominee should have been able to win the Democratic states. A win in Wyoming doesn't mean much, unless Dick Cheney and his friends and family switch parties.

I still don't see how she took Florida. I live in Florida and the majority of people I speak with all voted for either Obama or Edwards.

How could they have voted for Edwards or Obama? They weren't even on the ticket! I don't know why people include FL on the list of "big states he didn't win" when he wasn't even on the ballot there. Because he followed the rules and she didn't.

All names were on theThe Florida ballot

Obama was on the ballot for FLORIDA.

How presumptuous of you. The majority of people you "speak with" does not represent the majority of Floridians.

The real trouble for you is that she signed a pledge saying she would not campaign in Florida, and that the results wouldn't count, and she honored that pledge... Right up until Obama won a bunch of states he wasn't supposed to, after which she started wondering out loud why we weren't counting Florida.

There will be some solution to Florida and Michigan's problem, but counting the votes that were not campaigned for, or which people cast without an expectation of them counting for real is unfair to all those who did not want Clinton as their nominee, but who stayed home because of what they had heard.

And I believe our party will be quickly unified...

JT...you must be joking.

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In discussing the Democratic Party primary, I think we need to keep ever foremost in mind one key fact: namely, that the system of proportional delegate selection in that party deliberately makes individual state "wins" or "losses" important but not determinative in themselves. It takes many states to cumulatively determine the the Democratic Party's ultimate nominee -- by design. The candidate who understands this and who focuses on gaining the highest delegate total will -- as with the electoral college in the general election -- win all the marbles, not just some of them.

After the recent Pennsylvania primary, as predicted, Senator You-Know-Her's 10% margin of victory in this "big state" netted her campaign somewhere between 14 and 16 delegates at the expense of Senator Obama's 140-some-odd delegate lead. Again, and by design of the Democratic Party primary rules that all candidates accepted at the outset of this long process, that individual movement, one way or another, cannot by itself determine much. The same goes for the few other state primaries and caucuses remaining in this primary campaign season.

From every rational projection of electoral reality that I've read, Barack Obama's significant lead in North Carolina, just to take a single state example, will probably net him somewhere around 20 delegates at the expense of You-Know-Her's campaign -- which puts her Quixotic quest right back where it languished before the "big state" primary windmill in Pennsylvania. Ever fewer and smaller state primaries remain after May 6 (Indiana and North Carolina) with ever fewer numbers of delegates at stake for either of the two Democratic Party presidential candidates. At the end of the day, so to speak, Senator Obama will win the Democratic Party nomination because he will have won the greatest number of delegates chosen by the American voters in all the states that held primaries and/or caucuses according to agreed-upon party rules. Just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.

As for the so-called "superdelegates" who supposedly have the best long-term interests of the party at stake, the party-building-and-expanding strategy of Senator Obama will probably weigh large in their considerations. Frankly -- and I say this as a sixty-year-old white man myself -- the young and other newly-registered Democrats of today will form the party of tomorrow. We declining geezers still matter, but many of us will not live to see President Obama's Democratic Party successor take up the torch that he will pass along eight years from now. And again, frankly, if America ever hopes to regain its status as a modern, first-rate country, the more technically skilled and better educated among the secular population (hopefully a higher number tomorrow than today) had better have a lot more to say about what happens next than those huddled masses of animists praying fervently for an apocalyptic Rupture to just "take them away" from it all. That always-promised trick hasn't worked through millennia of human history.

The Democrcats need to leave appealing to sub-educated fear and loathing to the fascist Republicans. They have nothing else but Fear Itself to offer. To the great extent that Senator You-Know-Her has chosen to emulate, if not personify, the "vast right wing conspiracy" that she has apparently joined herself, then she will have perhaps another insignificant "win" or two ahead of her in the next month, but the smaller and smaller number of delegates that she may add to her column simply don't -- and can't -- add up to enough. And what she will have paid only to lose as much as she has given away, will make all her calculations anything but a bargain: to herself, her party, and the country.

The problem for Obama is that HE must mention Clinton's negatives. He or his surrogates. And as that happens, there goes another of the pillars of his campaign, i.e., that he is above negative "politics as usual". He's worked so hard to frame his negative attacks against her thus far as simply responses to her negativity. But the line becomes less and less distinct the more it is trod upon. Pennsylvania has certainly demonstrated that.

What we are seeing is the disintegration of Obama's carefully crafted facade. He was the uniter, but then came the Donny McClurkin flap. He was above playing the race card, but then came the MLK comment flap. He was the man to bridge America's racial divide, but then came the Jeremiah Wright flap. He had unstoppable momentum, but then came Texas and Ohio. He was a man of humble origins who understood the common man, but then came the "bittergate" flap. He was the intellectual whose rhetoric could disarm his critics, but then came the ABC debate. He was "a new kind of politician" who was above the old style of negative politics, but then came Pennsylvania.

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...and yet he still leads in pledged delegates, and after North Carolina Hillary Clinton won't even be able to make an asterisked claim to the popular vote. It's over. She lost.

And a good thing, too. Because John McCain and all the Republicans, who are not now saying anything about those negatives of Clinton's you allude to, would suddenly stop being so polite if she had won the nomination

Oh, this proves that, or that proves this...
There's always this emphasis on the little incidents that prove so much.

That is the Kitchen Sink Strategy. And it won't work for much longer. Clinton had big advantages in the states she's won. Obama needed nothing such, and will need nothing such as that to win Indiana and North Carolina. He will start out with advantages there, and if there's one thing we know about his advantages, it's that unlike Hillary, he doesn't lose them.

Why? Because even when he does go negative, it's often after people are practically begging him to hit back. He doesn't make the negative tactics a backbone of his campaign, he makes his organizational efforts that backbone. That, in the end, will last longer than her gruelling slimefest.

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It's a good speech, but Obama doesn't need to give it. He has already secured the nomination. Now it's just a matter of waiting her out and watching as her campaign slowly gives way to reality. The superdelegates will continue to come out for Obama in ones and twos so as to not look like they're ganging up on Hillary. But the end result will be the same. She has lost. He has won. He doesn't need to attack.

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Jonathan Taplin,
FYI, 1980-2000 was the best period in the history of US, best period in the history of humankind. People were never were more prosperous, more free that in that time.
Even if I extent that to from 1980 to 2008, this statement still will be tru.
So, why do you cling to your bitterness, your hate of Clinton, your dogmatic leftist ideology?

Why can't Obama close the deal? Well WHY CAN'T BILLARY? They only have a 15-year headstart, 8 in the White House, another 6 in the Senate and near total control over the power levers in the DNC????

Why can't SHE close the deal????

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Senator Obama has already "closed the deal" with enough people. He doesn't have to close the deal with everyone. No political candidate ever does that. Still, it never pays to claim victory too early (see infamous, childish aircraft-carrier "mission accomplished" stunts for edifying examples). Real victory will come when it comes in another month or so. It therefore pays for Senator Obama to remain cool, avoid You-Know-Her-type raving, lunatic threats to "obliterate" entire nations of people for not attacking America, and just have a little more patient confidence in a sound long-term strategy well executed and managed.

Almost no states with Pennsylvania-like demographics remain on the campaign schedule, so the most-disadvantageous period -- from Senator Obama's point of view -- remains behind now and not ahead. Unfortunately for You-Know-Her, the complete opposite has become true for her. And whatever claims she makes that what he has won doesn't make Senator Obama the winner, the same and worse holds for her since she has won even less. The Democratic Party nominating "deal" will close after the last primary or caucus in another six weeks or so. Senator Obama can then claim that he has closed the deal once and for all when that happens.

Senator You-Know-Her, of course, will just look for another goalpost to move or agreed-upon rule to renege on, shouting "deal? what deal? We haven't even begun to talk about making deals yet!" And so on and so forth up until -- and throughout -- President Obama's swearing in and first inaugural address.

Again, Senator Obama has already won, but doesn't want to come out and prematurely claim so himself. Legions of others, including Slate.com with their "Hillary Death Watch" feature and widget "delegate counter" have done all the mathematical projections for him. Senator Obama can turn the "close the deal" meme to his advantage, though, by just repeating that when all the primaries and caucuses have taken place, that he fully intends to have the largest number of delegates and that fact will demonstrate conclusively -- since all good things must come to an end -- that the contest has concluded and he has won.

As for all the "damage" that a long campaign supposedly does to the Democrats, the public has a notoriously short memory and the Democrats have more than enough time to highlight John McCain's humiliating Bush-butt-kissing, endless-war-agitating and goofy "Voodoo Economics." Et cetera, et cetera. The summer vacation months typically result in national political narcolepsy and the actual general election campaign really begins in September. The Democrats, led by nominee Barack Obama, have more than all the time they need to dispense with an aging human malaprop like John "senior moment" McBomb and his thoroughly discredited Brand "R," for recrudescent reactionary repulsiveness.

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