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The Morning After: Super Delegates, Do Your Job!

After Pennsylvania, what's next? The issue now is whether we Democrats can get our act together for the real election -- or, instead, continue to be picked apart by letting our internal struggle over marginally different candidates interact with -- and get magnified and used by -- the conservative attack machine and the media controversy machine. Even several more months of this toxic interaction may not keep us from winning the presidency, but it would reduce our margins for the next Congress, a very serious matter.

Looking back the morning after, this entire PA struggle over the past six weeks was a no-win situation. With all due respect to the idea that we are building networks to mobilize people in the falll, what all this did was merely get Clinton where she was almost bound to arrive in this one contest all along. Despite all the hysteria in the media and among analysts, this nomination contest is an intra-party exercise in marginal differentiation, and there is no surprise that many older voters and women voters chose Clinton -- or that Clinton obviously cannot "close the deal," in fact is doing worse and worse, among African Americans (who will ask her about that?) The sorting out of voters in a Democratic primary does not mean that most won't go with the party's Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees in November. Most older voters and women who support Clinton will go for Obama in the fall, and so will enough white working class men (a demographic that never goes entirely Demoocratic anyway), once the alternative is McCain and his temper and his pitiful pro-Bush and economics.

All this depends on Democrats setting on their nominee and getting on with defining the real alternatives. The exit poll reports of attitudes in primaries really do not predict much of anything about the very new context/alternatives of a general election.

Ironically, many Obama people have been arguing that Superdelegates should just follow the popular vote (in a district, state, overall?) But, actually, we should all call on Superdelegates to do their designated job: think about the previous primaries and the arguments by the campaigns, and just decide what each thinks is best for the party going forward from here. Do it now, within the next three weeks, so we can resolve the intra-party struggle by mid-May and move toward the general election. There is no perfect candidate, but either one will be weakened by a further protracted struggle over small differences -- because that is fodder for the Republican attack machine.

This need not be -- and should not be -- an organized affair. Superdelegates should just get on with it, one at a time, moving in an increasingly obvious wave or waves, so we Democrats can move on to fashioning a general election message, setting up an attack response system (which either HRC or Obama would need because both are vulnerable), defining McCain's negatives, and mobilizing resources for the real fight. No new information inside the party will become available beyond what is already obvious, so it is time for the Superdelegates to act like the Wise Women and Men they are supposed to be.

I wonder if the party elders will see this.


Comments (40)

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The Democratic Party is playing with imaginary rules that consistently morph into something else. With regards to Florida and Michigan, I here how every vote should be counted even if these states broke the rules! Well if every vote should be counted, then the Democratic Party should NOT have Super Delegates since they can "over-ride" the will of the people.

Last night, while hearing the reporting on the primary, the news media had various discussions about the "popular vote", the "electoral vote", and the "Super Delegate vote", all obfuscation of how the Democratic Party should select its presidential nominee.

Seems to me that the Democratic Party really has no defined rule for how the presidential nominee will be picked. Back to the smoke filled room for the selection process.

DEAR KARL, LOVE THE NEW LOOK

Hey thanks for endorsing the scheme. I think we pulled off this Superdelegate fake out nicely. Barry and Kerry are giddy, but I'm afraid Richardson isn't going to settle for Ambassador to the Phillipines. Can you guys use him for the next 4?

Ciao Dude
H. Dean

Hey Mister! You forgot your "Change We Can Believe In" yelled the cahsier.

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The rules seem pretty clear. Florida and Michigan don't count unless there is a proper revote, which is not going to happen, and superdelegates can can vote on any basis whatsoever. The current craziness underscores the need for a massive overhaul of how we select nout party's nominee. In that regard, how wrong is it that Republicans in many states can vote in the Dem primary and coneivably play a decisive role

Aside from getting our nominee elected president, Howard Dean's next job should be to reform the party and to get rid of the superdelgates.

I find Theda's call for the superdelegates to "do their jobs" seems rather scary since she's explicitly saying that their job is not absolutely to follow the will of the majority of Democrats. The Supers could break either way and she'd be satisfied. But a lot of us wouldn't be.

I didn't join this party to have a bunch of "party elders" tell me what to do and who to vote for. The party is supposed to respond to its members, not push its members around.

Absolutely Des,

The supers should follow the pledged delegate count. NBC's Chuck Todd called it for Obama last night using the same criteria they use to call the winner on election night:

Take a look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwd88C25J-0&eurl

All of those superdels who promised to follow the delegate count better do so now!

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Another two weeks and let's see where things are. I don't know whether the remaining superdelegates are from the Democratic party the Clintons once led, or whether they are independent.

Atually, let me restate that. I don't know if the Democratic party is independently run.

Maybe they're too afraid of being blackmailed by the Clinton big donors again.

It's one thing for the Clintons to break the agreement about FL and MI

But I'm not able to justify being a democrat if the DNC breaks that agreement too.

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DNC rules have not changed nor has any reason been shown that they should be changed in this primary season. Clinton has never lead in the pledged delegates or the popular votes. Due to early commitments she has held the lead in super delegates, and she has had some reversals; the gap between the candidates is under thirty.

The rules are far from perfect but they are not imaginary nor have they been altered, the problem is the narrative Clinton changes to fit the moment.

You cannot operate with rules that give advantage to the failures of a candidate; in short this is what Clinton has been pushing.

In response to those who think I would be happy if the Supers overturned the overall Obama majorities (in every measure), no I would not. I am a strong Obama supporter. But I don't think that will happen, and I think Superdelegates should just get on with doing what they will do in the end: break largely toward him. We all know pretty much how all the remaining primaries will turn out, and we know the demographic differentiations. They are what they are -- and delay has costs.

Like it or not, the Superdelegates' function IS part of the existing rules, just like the rules about caucuses and the rules used to exclude FL and MI. So they should do their job -- but do it sooner rather than later, for the good of the party.

Theda S.

But then we should get rid of them, right? Please say yes.

Super delegates are the only voters in the process who get to game the system for their personal advantage, because only they get to determine *when* they vote.

By waiting until the end of the process they set themselves up as the arbiters of the election. That also gives them personal leverage to get favors from the candidates.

I agree they should cote now and stop playing games.

A rule for the future if the party insists on keeping the SD's: make them declare their votes no later than the day the state in which they live votes.

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re 'demographics':

from "the bruising will go on..." (adam nagourney, today's nyt)
"sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered... and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election"
he's getting half the admitted racists. how much better does he have to do in this demographic?

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The Dem party is NOT a democracy...its a club. If you don't understand that then the school district you attended probably cut Civics & Government out of your life, under pressure from the budget blunders of the Far Right. The Club adopts SOME elements of democracy and some elements of rule by law. The rules say that despite how many delegates Obama or Clinton won, the super delegates get to vote any which way they choose. By insisting they vote for Obama, simply because he's ahead in the delegate count is NOT democratic, nor does it play by the rules.

Clinton's smarter than Obama and she understands that she needs only do one thing to have a good chance at getting the nomination: that's to stay close in the pledged delegate count and take the lead in the national polls come June 6. There's no way in hell that the super delegates are going to choose the candidate that's trailing in those polls. At that point Obama's delegate count will only prove that the early primaries & caucuses chose the wrong candidate.

If CLinton's ahead by more than 4 points in the nationals on June 6 she'll be the nominee.

The argument here is that the super-delegates should vote, and do it now so we can move to the next stage , thank you very much. No one said they should all vote for Obama just because he's in the lead. Several people *predicted* that the majority will vote for him for the same reasons he is leading the non-super delegates (some people hope that they will all vote for Obama, but that is a fantasy).

I can;t think of one reason for them to wait. If these are sophisticated observers and participants in the political process why can;t they discern their own preferences.

The only reason is that they are trying to figure out what is in it for them (or flip side, how not to get burned by so publicly voting for the losing candidate)

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"Clinton's smarter than Obama"

Only an idiot would say this.

I beg to differ. It's pretty clear that the elders of the Democratic party do not want Sen. Clinton as their candidate, you have to have blinders on not to read the signs of this. And, equally important, her lead in superdelegates is only residual. She has more because she started with more back when it seemed her candidacy was inevitable, but since Super Tueday, the movement has been overwhelmingly for Obama among the superdelegates. In order to stem this tide, Sen. Clinton would have to come from behind decisively, which she has not. Her win in PA will net her 10 -12 delegates, and this lead will be erased in North Carolina for sure, if not in North Carolina and Indiana both.

''I beg to differ. It's pretty clear that the elders of the Democratic party do not want Sen. Clinton as their candidate. . ."

Then why have more of the super delegates broken for Clinton?

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"Then why have more of the super delegates broken for Clinton?"

You mean why is she in the lead in superdelegates? As anna am explained, her lead is residual. She locked a whole bunch of superdelegates in place early on, based on past associations, political connections, name recognition etc. She did this to bolster the "inevitability" argument. Once the campaign started, movement among superdelegates has been consistently towards Obama.

Check out the trend at: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

The democratic elders don't want her, but more of them support her than him?

Speaking of trends, things certainly trended badly in the fourth quarter for the Giants in the Super Bowl. I'm glad they didn't pack up an go home because of any trend.

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Quote: "Clinton's smarter than Obama"

I totally disagree with this.

Clinton is smart, not brilliant; she is also not a visionary.

Her husband is brilliant but only occasionally (anymore) a visionary.

Obama is brilliant and a visionary.

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Ok! What's Obama's vision for the American people?
Asking them to join hands and Hope is no more visionary than a Hallmark greeting card. What does he want to do about Iraq? He's bounced around so many poorly thought out answers, including his proposal to give defense money to State and let them hire mercenaries to fight in Iraq...how inane is that! About health Care? He's proposed a universal program that doesn't include anyone who doesn't want to pay for health coverage...that will be everyone without jobs, everyone who feels they're healthy enough and every cash-strapped pensioner in the country. That's plain stupid, not visionary.

Obama talks a good talk but he's come from nowhere and brings no record of accomplishment. They only thing we know about him is that we know little about him.

America's voting for Obama because we all want to be part of celebrity history: helping to elect the first black man to the White House. We'd do a lot better by having American Idol run the election. At least then the candidates would have to show us something.

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"America's voting for Clinton because we all want to be part of celebrity history: helping to elect the first woman to the White House."

Oooh, look, I can play this game too!

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About health Care? He's proposed a universal program that doesn't include anyone who doesn't want to pay for health coverage...that will be everyone without jobs, everyone who feels they're healthy enough and every cash-strapped pensioner in the country. That's plain stupid, not visionary.

Hilary's health plan is the exact same except it punishes the people who don't want health care. How inane is that?

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So, YOU don't carry auto insurance? That's mandatory and if it wasn't how many people do you think would carry it? And if those who DIDN'T want auto insurance were able to opt out how much more would coverage cost for those who DO want it?

Besides...right now we're ALL paying the cost of medical care for everyone who isn't insured.

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yes, finally some reality breaks through the discussions here. Celebrity rules. POW vs. Black Celebrity. Poor Hillary is just a lowly woman, and one past menopause to boot. She's got no chance with us educated people.

(I'm not being facetious, by the way, it's based upon having met countless Obama supporters, young and old, and when asked why they support it, I inevitably get two answers - he's against the war, and he's inspirational. I can't get more than that, much as I'd like to hear more).

I'm afraid that in the end the POW gets it.

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Oh, "Poor Hillary", my ass. She started this campaign with eight years as first lady (talk about "celebrity"), eight years as a Senator from one of the most populous states in the union, and huge advantages in money and name recognition. If she's an underdog now, it's her own fault. Talk about not being able to "close the deal"...

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And here's an answer from an Obama supporter: I like him because of his experience as a community organizer; because our next president will need to mobilize a large majority to get a progressive agenda enacted, and I think he's better equipped to do that than the polarizing Clinton; yes, because he was right on the war from the start; and because he's much less entangled with big-money lobbyists than Clinton.

I'll take that candidate over somebody who voted for the Iraq War and served on the board of Wal-Mart. That's because I'm a progressive. There are your answers. Clear enough? But if you'd rather keep throwing around inanities about "celebrity rules", hey, it's a free country.

Let me try to give you more than that. As far as domestic policy goes, there isn't a lot of light between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton. We can dispute their healthcare plans, but suffice it to say there's good and bad in both plans, and either one of the would represent a step in the right direction.

Where I do see quite a bit of light between them is on foreign policy, and here is where I think we need a real break with the past, which Sen. Clinton does not represent -- witness her recent statements on the Middle East during the recent debate and afterwards. I am not alone in thinking this and far better political minds than mine are in agreement. In this regard, if you are truly interested in learning why Sen. Obama has a following among first class political thinkers, I refer you to Spencer Ackerman's excellent article in the American Prospect last month: http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_obama_doctrine

I also think that Sen. Obama will have more to offer this country in terms of the economic crisis we have on our hands, both in the near term and in far-reaching reform. I am not talking here simply about relief programs for those who are losing their homes or simply "stimulus packages." What is wrong with the economics of this country as it exists today will also take a new mindset, and Sen. Obama's Cooper Union address last month on this subject was (pace Paul Krugman) was exceptional and, again, I am not alone in thinking this. Once again, I'd like to refer you to the American Prospect, where Robert Kuttner has a commented at length on Sen. Obama's potential in this area of grave concern -- particularly to his piece which comments on the Cooper Union Address at length: http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=obama_v_krugman

In these times, with the level of discourse so pitiful in the mainstream media you have to do alittle digging to make yourself informed. Maybe you should tell your friends who can't give you any good reasons why they're supporting Obama that they should educate themselves as well.

We probably agree more than disagree, but I would argue with you about why Obama has done as well as he has. I think he has cast a timely message that plays to the people's frustrations with Washington and offers "hope" instead of more of the same bad old issues politics. For that I think he deserves kudos for identifying and exploiting a message that resonates. He's also proven himself a capable and steady campaigner; and a charasmatic leader (we would probably agree on personality cults in this regard).

That said, I agree that there is little substance to the hope theme, and even less track record. I don't think president Obama can change the culture of Washington, just as I don't think the culture of Washington has changed much in the last 150 years. One need only read Cokie Roberts' new book about first ladies, especially their letters back home, or Dr. McClulough's book on Truman. The body of historical evidence indicates that Washington has always been a bog; and if history can predict, will always be so.

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So far no one's been able to point to a single Obama accomplishment. That would suggest he's unable to break thru legislative gridlock, despite his suggestion he's been anointed do that. Clinton, on the other hand, worked across the aisle and alongside NY state conservatives to bring 80,000 jobs to employment-depressed upstate NY. Even the state's conservative wing praises her efforts. Clinton's health care plans have a good chance of working. Obama's is simply more bureaucratic smoke and mirrors...designed to make his supporters giggle with glee and nothing else.

As for bringing people together...that's pretty easy to do when you're willing to spend $20M a month and $12M in PA alone. And STILL he couldn't catch Clinton. What does that tell you about a willingness to fight?

I think you better check your facts. Since Sen. Clinton was elected, upstate New York has lost 40,000 jobs. I would also suggest you check the congressional record and compare her record (8 years worth) with Sen. Obama's (in only 3 years). I think you may be surprised, especially at the quality of the bills that Sen. Obama has either sponsored or co-sponsored. I am thinking specifically of bills like the nuclear non-proliferation bill that Sen. Obama and Sen Hagel introduced. And, by the way, Sen. Hagel is a Republican, speaking of reaching across the aisle.

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Why didn't you also state that those losses occurred in the past year...at a rate similar to job losses all over the country? (See Labor Dept, NYS, work force & industry data) I Obama's home state jobs were being lost at a much higher rate than in NY.

By the way, the Cooper Union address didn't offer any plans or suggestions, just more feel-good platitudes about the need to add more regulations, without any explanation. THAT notion will never fly through Congress...guaranteed.

Neither did Obama's foreign policy address fly straight. he spoke passionately about the need to do things differently, without offering any suggestions of WHAT to do differently except that we had to fight Fear> Prozac politics, maybe??? However, Obama DID get more clear later when he suggested we turn over part of the defense budget to State so that that department could hire mercenaries to fight for us in Iraq. That's plain insane!

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Your entire argument boils down to the desire to move on and select Obama as the nominee before Hillary has any more opportunities to demonstrate his very real weaknesses. One would expect an Obama supporter to have such a view. For the good of the Party I suggest we don't do that. I think the electorate is just getting to know Barack Obama as his facade crumbles. That's not a good thing for Obama, but it is very good for the Party.

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Absolutely!!

This is already happening. The superdelegates are already moving slowly in the direction of giving one candidate a majority. We'll have our nominee soon enough, and it will be long before the convention. We've gone this far. Another few weeks won't matter.

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I agree completely. If the SDs can do whatever they want, than why did we caucus and hold primaries? The SDs should be guided by the earned delegates. After all, this was set up as a delegate race. All states have delegates, but not all states have a popular vote, so that metric is not applicable to anything. The SDs are supposed to the wise leaders of the Party. It is time they started acting like it. There is no way for Hillary to overtake Obama among pledged delegates. Let's end this and get on to defeating McCain while we have a chance.

The entire blame for the Democrat snatching defeat from the jaws of victory lies with the Clintons and their powerful DNC clique. They are the "chosen ones" paid for and vetted by the real power brokers, the various lobbyists, the Bourbons, old hands like Henry Kissinger, the industrialists and financiers, the Big Media like Murdoch.

Sometimes, what you see is really what you get - if she walks and talks like a Republican, maybe she *is* a Republican in Democrat-clothing.

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Please correct me if I am wrong. Neither Obama or Clinton can secure the nomination at the convention if they vote as they are currently aligned. This means that both need the super delegates to secure a first round nomination. Once the first round is complete, I believe the delegates are released and can vote however they want. This goes for Supers and standard delegates. In days of yore some nominations went through many votes before deciding on a person to nominate. Sometimes neither of the two leaders were chosed, but a dark horse was a compromise choice.

Frankly I am getting tired of people saying Clinton cannot win but Obama can. Neither can without serious defection of superdelegates.

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You asked to be corrected if you are wrong. Well, here it comes. . . . you are wrong. This business about delegates being "released" after the first round of voting is pure nonsense. No delegate of any kind is bound by anything to vote for anyone, in the first round or any other. "Pledged" delegates are called 'pledged' because they have expressed the strength of their support to a candidate as a part of being selected to be a delegate in the first place. There is no binding contract. If a pledged delegate selected through a primary or caucus is powerfully affected by the revelation of some campaign scandal or blunder, they could change their mind and vote for a different candidate at the convention -- yes, in the first round.

This is exactly what Clinton is trying to accomplish by going after Obama. She is hoping not only to woo undecided superdelegates, but also to "flip" as many of the so called "pledged" delegates as possible. Is it a workable strategy? That depends on the level of commitment from each individual pledged delegate. We won't know until the convention, which is one reason why Clinton may never concede defeat, preferring to go into Denver hoping for a big surprise among the votes of the "pledged" delegates.

The irony is that the remaining superdelegates are more likely to stick with Obama than are pledged delegates who might be sensitive to the Wright issue or "bittergate". The superdelegates who are elected officials are probably reticent to back Clinton because they sense how much she is hated by so many, and it will hurt their own chances for reelection to be on the same ballot with her.

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If Obama's supporters in the Party ran MLB they'd end each game in the 7th inning...IF their favorite team was ahead by one run.

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I wonder what Obama supporters are going to say IF Obama starts a downward spiral in these next states?

What will be the excuse then if Obama begins to lose them by 20 or 30 points in the upcoming states and Hillary moves into the lead?

Will you once again BLAME the Clinton campaign? Will all these arguments you make about super delegates voting for the "popular" vote apply?

I have a very real sense that the Obama juggernaut is over. Too many of the chickens he's been hatching over many year have come to roost and that is due solely to his own poor choices and inability to articulate specifics (or exhibit real understanding of) on the issues.

chanting unity might make nice TV but it doesn't do much to solve the very real problems in this country

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