Sunshine on the Housing Debate
I agree with Dana Chasin that the time in act to stop the decline in the housing market is upon us, but I disagree with his weather report on the New York Times editorial. The Times has the central point right: As a practical matter, the proposed housing bill and the bankruptcy bill are alternative--not complementary--approaches. If the housing industry believes it can get millions of bad mortgages off its books by selling them to the FHA (and making taxpayers guarantors), then the industry will continue to fight to the death a bankruptcy bill that will force the industry--not the taxpayer--to eat substantial losses on the worst loans. In other words, they will take the best deal on the table and block any other deal.
So far, the industry has been getting exactly what it wants: useless voluntary non-plans. Next up is a Congressional plan to put the taxpayer in the line of fire. The one plan the industry has lobbied ferociously against has been a bankruptcy bill that would cost taxpayers nothing, would leave hundreds of thousands in their homes with refinanced mortgages, and would cause the mortgage investors to bear the full costs of their underwater mortgages.
I think that Dana agrees that the bankruptcy bill is a good idea, but he argues that a bankruptcy amendment just can't get the votes. After all, all the Republicans and a lot of Democrats just voted to make bankruptcy harder for families in trouble. All true, and all shameful, but the 2005 vote was not taken in the middle of a housing crisis. Moreover, bill was written by the credit card industry, with huge concessions to the car lenders. There was nothing in the 2005 amendments about home mortgages, so this bill reverses nothing from the 2005 amendments.
Dana is exactly right that there is a political judgment call in the middle of this housing mess: What can Congress actually get done? I think the idea that housing investors should still be calling the shots in Washington is plain wrong. Housing investors made billions exploiting the fact that there were no decent safety regulations on home mortgages. Now that the whole Ponzi scheme has collapsed, they want to write the rules on who will take the losses. I understand that negotiation is necessary and I want to keep an open mind about the Frank bill, but I think it is time for Congress to step up and decide what is best for the public, not what the industry will let them pass.













Comments (14)
i agree that there may be more support for a bankruptcy reform bill specifically addressed to the foreclosure crisis.
one of the biggest fears that the industry would have is the permanence of the provisions long after the housing crisis has passed.
a bankruptcy reform measure, without a sunset clause or careful drafting, could become a permanent feature. this i think the industry will go to the mat on to prevent.
it may be best to wait until after the november elections... but, bankruptcy reform clearly makes sense as a way of regulating foreclosures and apportioning losses.
April 23, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
and yet, it strikes me as a somewhat novel intervention.
have there been analogous reforms to the code in the past?
April 23, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . the housing industry . . . the industry will . . . So far, the industry has . . . the industry has . . . would cause the mortgage investors . . . the idea that housing investors should . . . what the industry will . . . .
Bad industry; bad, bad industry.
April 23, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't be so petty and trollish.
It is an industry, with a lobby, trade associations and the works; and it does collectively have problems.
April 23, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm.
Lots of "trade associations" but only one "lobby."
Odd industry.
April 23, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
As i posted to Dana Chasin here:
Could you guys make a habit of linking to a more comprehensive thesis in white paper format? Simply link to it in every article you post on the subject, so readers have that hyper-context at hand at all times. Something like:
"for more information on the subject... this white paper is endorsed by... "
Not to criticize Warren, she's one of the best TPM contributors and I have the greatest admiration for her sticking with these wonky, but ever so vital, issues that affect us all.
It's just an overall complaint and pet peeve I have of bloggers, that they too often become myopic and focus on minutia while neglecting their overall message. I understand that's also a strength of bloggers. But they should make an effort to exploit the web and efficiently do both. Address issues comprehensively in white paper format, and link to it continually, while also tackling the day to day issues in blog format. They're complimentary.
April 23, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to criticize . . . one of the best . . . I have the greatest admiration . . . .
Yes, Osric?
April 23, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep on trollin Ellen. You apparently have nothing better to do.
April 23, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why not? You're such a perfect fish, kozmik.
April 23, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
If our government is consistent, the taxpayers will foot the bill after the Federal Reserve bails out the lenders. We'll just print more money like they did for Morgan Stanley, justifying it with the argument that we want to avoid an economic crisis caused by a bank failure. That is why they took so much risk, they know they won't have to pay for it. Historically, the Federal Reserve comes to the rescue and bails them out, what is to stop them in the future?
Jim
http://www.thetruthaboutcredit.com
April 23, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
A bailout will not fix the problem, only delay the eventual day of reckoning (and by, probably, not that long). The problem is not the FHA, the banks, or the homebuilders. The problem will not be fixed until homebuyers are taught that homes are LIABILITIES, not assets. Land itself can be an investment given certain factors, but not the structures that rest on it. Current homebuyers are doing everything they can to minimize the land and maximize the (ever more flimsy) house. Look at all these vertical lots with just enough room to run two riding mowers between the houses. Replace the vinyl siding with tarpaper and a tin roof, and you'll have an old-fashioned shotgun shack. Let me hear Clinton or Obama say they'll put an end to all that propaganda that FHA puts out (It's the "American Dream," don't you know?), and I'll start believing we intend to "fix" this problem.
April 25, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're absolutely right. Bailouts don't fix the problem, it only delays the inevitable. But our Central Banking System sees it as sound economic policy. They try to hold inflation at bay, but their track record is pretty bad when you look at the value of the dollar in 1913 compared to today.
I think the author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" would take issue with you on homes being liabilities. I agree with you though, I think "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" has been misleading people. His accounting methods are questionable, though he does know how to make money in an inflationary economy. Too many people think a mortgage is a good thing.
I think the original "American Dream" was to reach financial independence and not be enslaved to work for a living at a job we hate. However, that has changed with the successful marketing of banking products. Now the "American Dream" is to be able to conveniently buy everything in sight and die with the most toys and the most debt. Working is now all about making money, and has nothing to do with contributing something to society. What Americans are learning is that this is really the path to economic slavery.
Jim
http://www.thejimanderson.com
April 25, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
'print more money like they did for Morgan Stanley'
Did I miss something? When did the fed print money for Morgan Stanley?
May 1, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops, I meant Bear Stearns.
May 9, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink