TPMCafe
« The Kagan Subtext | Home | Mortgage Brokers Have Trouble... Paying Mortgage »

The Crunchian Take on Globalization

user-pic


Now that we’ve debated the principles of Crunch economics for a few days, I wanted to post one of the questions and answers that make up the core of the book. This one’s about globalization. It’s longer than most of the book’s Q&A discussions, but it’s not a simple topic and I try to add some nuance. See what you think.

Q: What’s so right and/or wrong about globalization? Am I really hurting American workers if I buy cheap imports? Should I feel lousy about this? Am I supposed to oppose trade deals? Isn’t our loss the gain of some poor person “over there” who probably needs the money even more than we do?

A: Settle in. Comfortable? This is going to take a few minutes.

First, allow me to share my latest encounter with the economics of globalization.

I’m a music lover and a critical listener, so when I finally got out of grad school, paid off some debts, and had a little real money, I bought, for many hundreds of dollars, a kickin’ stereo. The components were very high quality and lasted for decades. I had to buy a CD player at some point—that medium didn’t exist when I bought my system—but otherwise, I hadn’t bought any electronic music equipment in about 25 years.

Well, I guess I blasted “Purple Haze” one too many times, and the speakers finally died of old age (the big, clunky tuner is as healthy as ever and is living in my attic—I should give it to the Smithsonian). So I headed out to the big box electronics store to get a new high-quality system.

Not having been in the market for such an item for so many years, I wasn’t sure how much money I was going to need to spend, but I mentally put aside at least $500. That was already a few hundred less than I had spent on my old system in nominal dollars. In real dollars—adjusted for inflation since then—it was probably half as much.

Here’s the clincher: Barring the purchase of a personal recording studio, I couldn’t find a way to pay anywhere close to the amount I’d put aside. I found amazing systems, one of which now sits on my bookshelf, for the mid-hundreds of dollars. (The “I” in that last sentence is literal. The salesperson who helped me in this Best Buy store literally couldn’t figure out how to turn the thing on. I’m not just being snotty—I come back to this point later in the book in a discussion of the big box retailer Circuit City). Oh, by the way, the next day I saw the same system advertised on sale for $20 less, and Best Buy made up the difference. I think I ended up paying about $130 for the system.

So, you don’t have to look far to see the benefits of globalization. In economic terms, globalization—defined here as the increased flow across borders of goods, services, people, and ideas—by increasing the supply of stuff, lowers prices. There are other benefits, of course, accruing both to us and to our trading partners, but for all the lofty talk about expanded trade building bridges to the future and intertwining the fates of countries, most of us encounter and benefit from globalization in much the same way as I did that day.

And clearly, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with buying cheap imports. Yet, in these questions posed by a friend in San Francisco, my spiderlike senses pick up a murmur of guilt, mixed in with a lot of confusion.

That’s not surprising. The U.S. trade debate generates a whole lot more heat than light.

Economists, policymakers, and the punditry are forever going on about the benefits of trade and the horrible folly of protectionism. In large part, they’re motivated by two points, only the first of which is valid. That’s the principle of comparative advantage, a great and centuries-old insight showing that trading partners both end up better off when they specialize in what they do best, even if their best isn’t all that great.

The other motivation, the one that generates all kinds of undesirable yet avoidable outcomes, is the belief that more trade always makes everyone better off.

Journalist Eric Alterman, in a piece in The Nation titled “Dude! Where’s My Debate?” notes that the afore mentioned Thomas Friedman, a highly influential and breathless booster of “free trade” (the quotes are important, as you’ll see), was asked if there was any free-trade agreement he’d oppose.2 Friedman, a guy you would never think of as thoughtless, responded, “No, absolutely not,” adding, “You know what, sir? I wrote a column supporting the CAFTA, the Caribbean Free Trade initiative. I didn’t even know what was in it. I just knew two words: ‘free trade.’”

It’s worse. He didn’t even get the name right: It’s the Central American Free Trade agreement. This guy owns some of the most influential intellectual real estate in the world: He writes two op-ed essays a week for the New York Times. His books are everywhere. Yet because he’s so thoroughly convinced that free trade is always a big winner and that legislation like CAFTA promotes it, he brags that he doesn’t even have to look under the hood.

That’s a shame and a disservice to the debate. And, thankfully, as the untruths of the free-trade uber alles boosters have become clearer to more people, there is now a debate on these issues.

To join that debate, it’s helpful to consider the five myths of globalization:

1. You could stop it or even slow it down much.

The globalization horse is way far out of the barn, and trade agreements have much less to do with its pace than people like Friedman seem to think. Thirty-five years ago, trade volume amounted to 10 percent of our economy; now it’s 30 percent (that’s exports plus imports as a share of GDP). The fastest-growing exporter to the United States is China, and we don’t have any trade treaty with them (yes, they joined the WTO, but research has found little relationship between that and the penetration of our market, meaning much of it arguably would have occurred anyway). Like any other legal negotiation, these trade deals, like NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) and CAFTA, create a structure that generates winners and losers, with rules that protect some groups relative to others. NAFTA, for example, created lots of opportunities for investors but did little to ensure that workers in any of the three countries would reap the benefits of the agreement.

So trade deals have little to do with whether globalization goes forward. Regardless of these deals, countries will continue to expand trade relations. But that by no means suggests we should ignore trade deals. To the contrary, we need a new architecture, and by “we,” I mean workers the world round (see myth #5).

2. Globalization is wonderfully benign; or it’s all pain, no gain.

Like I said, for years the cheerleaders have derailed the debate, but you also need to be balanced here. You would be hard-pressed to find someone who has not saved some serious money thanks to expanded trade. Nor can anyone deny that there are lots of smart people in other countries who have great new opportunities thanks to globalization.

But you don’t have to look too far to see the pain either. Since 2000 alone, we’ve lost over three million jobs in manufacturing, in no small part due to our unbalanced trade—we import a ton more than we sell abroad. And now, with the offshoring (more on offshoring below) of white-collar jobs, the downward pressure on wage growth is hitting sectors that were previously inoculated. You know all those satellites and fiber-optic cables carrying ones and zeros all over the globe? Well, if your work can be represented by those ones and zeroes, it can be crammed into those nifty cables, and guess what? Don’t matter whether you’re a scholar or a fool, you’re now in competition with smart, cheap people in faraway places.

And all that stuff about low prices? It’s true, but remember, the story of stagnant American wages and incomes for so many workers in the middle and lower rungs of the scale is an inflation-adjusted story—that is, these wages are adjusted for the price-inducing benefits of trade, and they’re still falling. In the horserace of low prices versus low wages, wages still sometimes lose.

3. Its costs and benefits are broadly shared.

Would it were so. In fact, estimates are that U.S. trade with low-wage countries explains 20 to 30 percent of the increase in wage inequality over the past generation.4 That’s less than half, so you could say it’s not a smoking gun, but there are no single factors that explain more. Globalization, American style, is one reason why our economy has become more unequal.

4. Its downsides only affect displaced workers.

It is now de rigueur to acknowledge that—who knew?—a small group of losers are genuine victims of globalization. It’s just a few hard-hatted dinosaurs from the rust belt, but hey, I’m sensitive . . . I recognize that an egg or two had to get broken to make this global omelet.

Wrong. While folks whose jobs actually and visibly went overseas may be the most recognizable victims, tens of millions of incumbent workers—men and women still at work—have lower wages today than they would if trade were more balanced. My colleague Josh Bivens, an economist, estimates that increased trade has cost the typical household about $2,000 over the past generation. That’s not a huge dent, but it’s not trivial either (and remember, this is a net calculation—it accounts for the low-price effect).

5. Its outcomes cannot be shaped.

They must be accepted as is. Once you get that trade deals have little effect on globalization (barring, of course, crazy ideas that wouldn’t fly, like huge tariffs), you are free at last to get smart, creative, and compassionate. Maybe most important, given that their regimes want access to our markets, here’s where we might be able to help the downtrodden in poor countries.

Instead, as Bivens puts it, “Today, access to the U.S. market is contingent upon the developing world adopting a host of policies that map awfully conveniently to what the international corporate class wants.”

Why, exactly, is labor so cheap in what the trade literature calls “less developed countries”? The economist would answer that it’s because their workers are plentiful, with low value added; and, though Chinese productivity, for example, is growing faster than ours, there’s something to that. But lest we get too cozy with our cheap stuff, let us not forget that political repression is another reason. As long as they want access to our markets—and believe me, they do—we should use that leverage to insist on the granting of workers’ rights.

It would thus be a real advance if these trade deals devoted less ink to protecting “intellectual property rights” of first-world producers and more to the rights of workers in developing countries. One good reason to get behind globalization is that we’d like to see the world’s poor realize some of the prosperity that expanded trade is supposed to generate. When we play overly nicely with repressive governments—when we essentially make exclusive deals between their big investors and our big investors—we sacrifice this opportunity.8 Does all this mean we should smugly blast Jimi Hendrix on our cheap but awesome sound systems, slipping into a purple haze while we forget about globalization’s downsides?

Of course not. As I discuss in the book’s solution’s chapter, there’s lots we could do here to offset the downsides without sacrificing the upsides.

Crunchpoint: I know it took a while to get here, but the answer is, there’s lots that’s right and wrong about globalization. Cheap imports help us as consumers but hurt us as workers. Trade deals are not just about globalization, they’re also about power, and they should stop protecting investors at the expense of workers, here and abroad.


18 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

all of this seems emminently reasonable. however, unpleasant political realities exist.

to me this boils down to responsible regulation of corporations, which i think have far too much power over the process.

what types of regulation would you suggest is achievable under a democracticly controlled congress and wh?

user-pic

Your post reminded me of Robert Reich's "Don't Blame Wal-Mart" 2005 op-ed in the New York Times. It became memorable to me because of a couple of strong sentences in it, like these two: To claim that people shouldn't have access to Wal-Mart or to cut-rate airfares or services from India or to Internet shopping, because these somehow reduce their quality of life, is paternalistic tripe. No one is a better judge of what people want than they themselves.

The sociological and historical side of this topic has always interested me, from personal experience. I'm a boomer coming out of a very large extended family of Depression babies that I stay in touch with, I grew up in a working class neighborhood in a largely working class city. My totally unscientific summary from those and related experiences: people, especially those penny pinchers who grew up during the Depression, like, really like, the situation of having cheap imported goods as it has been the last couple of decades. It allows them to live well in retirement. They also wish they had the same situation when they were raising their families. They also had always wished that their children would not have to work in factory assembly lines making goods like they did, or work like a dog on a family farm, they wanted their kids to go to college and get white collar jobs. They are happy that the Chinese are making all the stuff now, and they can buy stuff cheap that when they were younger would have been too expensive for their income, they like the situation, it's what they wanted to happen. You really won't hear a lot of them screaming about Americans making stuff in factories with union wages again. Some of them raised families on those union wages, but under that system they couldn't afford many luxuries or even basics at all, as everything union-made was high-priced relative to salary, and they see life as better for most Americans now.

You and a lot of similar folks make the assumption that people are only consumers, not workers. Yes, in a consumer-only, advanced economy, globalization is just fabulous.
.
But, alas, most of us have to work for a living. And we have to consider FIRST what's best for American workers. Once you do that, ONLY THEN do you have reliable consumers, particularly if you're looking toward the future.
.
What we're going through right now is a brief period of basically looting America's post WWII built-up wealth, when we can deceive ourselves into thinking that globalization is a fine, long-term and in fact irreversible trend. But look at the evidence? We're in debt up to our necks to a third-world, totalitarian country and we have a negative savings rate. The only thing that sustains this economy is hot air, otherwise known as bubbles--a phenomenon that used to happen about once a century but that now seems to be cropping up in quick succession to itself.
.
When we run out of bubbles, one hopes that Americans will wake up and see the connection between actually having good, lifelong, well-compensated work and living well through mass consumption by actually living within our means rather than "borrowing" from totalitarian states.
.
By the way, globalization is cyclical, not evolutionary. Virtually all the world's great economic powers have arisen while well-protected behind trade barriers. Globalization has come and gone throughout history (by any measure, the world was more "globalized" in the years just before World War I--and then it all fell apart), and we should be seeing the end of this current cycle pretty soon.

user-pic

Congratulations, Jared! That's one of the few writings on globalization and free trade that I've read that posits the issues in a cogent realistic manner.

The challenge moving forward is to recalibrate economics in a manner that limits pain. For example, median incomes have stagnated or even gone down, replaced to some degree by cheap imports, and to a big degree by cheap credit. How do we insist in our trade deals on an equitable distribution of wealth (which represents additional cost, eg healthcare, livable wages, etc) while maintaining the buying power of the displaced worker here in the States? If we woke up tomorrow with a just amendment to NAFTA we'd have a lot of pissed off consumers--the jobs would take time to come home, or may never even come home, while the prices at Walmart would go up (I'm seeing an un-happy face as the new mascot). To do it right will extend beyond just renegotiating the agreements.

user-pic

"Friedman, a guy you would never think of as thoughtless ..."

well, not quite! and when I saw him demonstrating his 'iron fist' he would bring down to 'break and crush the bones' of Palestinians, I pretty much realized he was just another maniac ...

user-pic

You picked a bad example, because it blends together the effects of technology and improved (and cheaper) gadgetry of all kinds with the lower labor cost of 3rd manufactures.

A better example would be, say, a t-shirt.

If it would save American jobs, would you buy a $20 t-shirt from a local shop, or an $8 dollar version, from China, at Wal-Mart?

The difference here is really the difference in labor cost. Not so in your example.

I also have to say I'm very skeptical of arguments in favor of free trade. Too much water under the bridge, by now. I don't believe that this country knows how to do sophisticated, effective social policies. We're not Denmark. After we have a good nationalized health care system, my view may change. But we are nowhere near a strong position to implement effective trade assistance. On the other hand, we industrialized under a tariff regime and we could do so again.

A main characteristic that all liberal pro trade economists seem to share is an underestimation of the importance of the job market is providing social progress and stability in this country. To the cheerleading of you and your fellows, this job market has been demolished by globalization. Now you have 'ideas' as to how to patch up the mess. Where's your proposal to extend the EITC? (Most of us would rather have a job.) Sorry to say, I'm skeptical.

Jared: Thoughtful post. Two quick questions. First, do you have any data on insourcing of jobs vs. outsourcing? It is my understanding that globalization still leads to more insourcing of jobs in the United States than it does outsourcing. Can you recommend any place for good data on this? Rarely does one hear anyone talk about globalization leading to the insourcing of jobs in the U.S., but, if it does, one obviously has to consider the total balance on this to give a verdict (clearly, though, we would still need to think through a better safety net for those impacted by outsourcing). Second, any thoughts on Martin Wolf's book Why Globalization Works? I find it very impressive, but I am an armchair economist, at best.

Finally, regarding dissent's comment on T-Shirts, I highly recommend Pietra Rivoli's The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy: An Economist Examines the Markets, Power, and Politics of World Trade. What Prof. Rivoli finds is that most often it is particular political arrangementsin countries that produce the worst consequences from globalization, not the economic policies. I would add to this that I think that the bias in favor of shareholders and short term economic gains is more of a political/legal reality than one required by global markets.

user-pic

Joe,

Rob Scott at EPI has done some work on insourcing...search the site. I think he finds that there's less there than meets the eye.

On outsourcing, we've got a new'ish analysis you might find interesting.
http://www.epi.org/datazone/characteristics_of_offshorable_jobs.pdf

I'll check out Wolf's book--I've not read it.

Thanks.

user-pic

I think I ended up paying about $130 for the system. Jared Bernstein

I'll admit I can't imagine what a $130 stereo system would sound like. I'm writing this listening to the Chicago Symphony on KAMU-FM on a pair of the cheapest acceptable desktop speakers I could find a few years ago ($450 and that's with plastic veneer).

So, anyhoo, Jared ---

How much would your $130 system have cost had it been manufactured in the U.S. $136.95? More? How much more, exactly?

user-pic

Somehow I doubt Jareds current system will last even a decade. If he has to spend $130 dollars every couple of years when his system "blinks out" and is more expensive to repair than to replace, how will that bargain look after 25 years?

There is an argument for American-made quality as well. The chinese-made t-shirt falls apart after several washings, not so with the American-made item.

My old Apple CI still boots up and runs. American-made was made to endure. There's a financial benefit to that as well.

user-pic

"Estimates are that U.S. trade with low-wage countries explains 20 to 30 percent of the increase in wage inequality over the past generation."

Is this right? What's the source? It does not accord with my understanding.

I thought that up until the 90s, the studies showed that the effect of trade on inequality is modest, as imports from cheap labor developing countries did not represent a large percentage of the overall economy. But Krugman and others are looking to see whether the dramatic increase in manufacturing imports from China with its dramatically lower wages alters that conclusion. So far, while theoretically it should (at least to some extent), it has been difficult to substantiate.

Link to Krugman's draft article on the issue.

http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/pk-bpea-draft.pdf

user-pic

Good link, Chunche; thanks.

Krugman: "How can we quantify the actual effect of rising trade on wages? The answer, given the current state of the data, is that we can’t."

I wonder, though, about his emphasis on computer assembly (probably a marker for "skill-intensive production") in analyzing wage effects. Isn't it pretty much an automated process?*

Here's Gigabyte's workers' drink cups -- not a lot of workers for a plant that builds the amount of motherboards Gigabyte builds, no matter what they're being paid.

* Maybe we should be looking at the cost to build robots and automated plants in developing countries -- that is, looking more at capital transfers and not as much at trade.

Computer assembly is hardly automated at all. Production of the components is "mostly automated": individual boards are produced en masse, and smaller components (resistors, capacitors, etc) are loaded by machine. Larger components (wide connectors and FPGA sockets) are inserted by hand, then the board runs through a wave solder machine. Once the boards are finished, assembly is all by-hand.

(Motherboards count as an "individual board" in this process.)

user-pic

So ---

What portion of the price of the assembled computer can be ascribed to the cost of Chinese assemblers? My guess -- and that's all it is -- is less than 2%.

I'm guessing it's the lower cost of building the plant in China rather than in El Paso (initial capital costs) that induces Apple and Intel to go to China for their production.

Good question, don't know the answer, but will add that it's cheaper to ship the components to China (since they are mostly made in Taiwan, Japan, and Maylasia) than to the US. Given that the final product is eventually shipped to the US, it seems like this should not matter; but perhaps as many final assembled components are shipped to places also sufficiently local to China that this holds prices down.

It's also worth noting that the margins on non-Apple computer products tend to be pretty thin. Apple products have much higher margins, so they could absorb greater logistical inefficiencies (not saying they do, just that they could).

Agh. "Malaysia", and "final assembled products" not "final assembled components". I ken two type rite!

Inexpensive goods are great! But too many imports are cheap in every sense.

If I could buy toys not painted with lead, Heparin injection not be contaminated with allergens, wood screws that withstand the torque of a hand screwdriver, T-shirts that last until I get too fat for them, and Air Jordan sneakers for $25, I'd be a huge fan of globalization.

Instead, I see a vast combination of price gouging and corner cutting, with all proceeds going to these corporate shareholders.

user-pic

Great post Jared - I've been a fan for a while.

Best point made here is that 'globalization' occurs with or without trade deals - that was an eye opener for me.

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Book Club Calendar

Coming Soon



Nov. 30-Dec. 4



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »





Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address