there is no willingness on the part of the Iraqi's to engage in serious political reconciliation.

Quite true and quite obvious.

But it's "Iraqis" not "Iraqi's." Sorry. Pet peeve.

Brzezinski's comments helped me understand why there cannot be peace in Iraq until the US announces that it is leaving and leaving at a well defined date that is determined by no other factor than the logistical constraints of troop withdrawal.

There are multiple forces in Iraq.

There are the anti-occupation warriors. They will
fight as long as US troops are present. These are mostly Sunni but also important Shiite forces.

There are anti-American nationalists who are not warriors (probably the majority). But they will not collaborate with the puppet regime because of their nationalism. These people are powerless to do much during war.

There are criminal elements that are opportunistically profiting from the turmoil. These people can never be controlled until the wider war is stopped.

The so called Al-qaida groups. Non-Iraqi fundamentalists and adventurers. They will have no choice but to go home when the war ends. They will have no political support within Iraq during peace.

There are those that have decided to collaborate with the foreign occupier. These are basically the Shiites and Kurds. They are in a dilemma. The Americans promise political power but they will be hated by the vast majority for being traitors.

Sadr is playing his cards brilliantly. He is maintaining his reputation as a nationalist but he shares political power today. The Awakening groups will have credibility also because of their record of resistance, even though they are collaborating today. These are going to be tomorrow's winners.

Thinking about what all of these forces will do, once it is clear that the Americans are leaving actually does not leave much room for further fighting. The major militias and the other nationalist forces will quickly enter into negotiations to put together a governing coalition. I can't see the Sunni Shiite civil war continuing in that environment. Sciri and Sadr may have some border clashes but there territory is fairly well staked out and peace will allow them to consolidate what they have.

If this run down is even close to correct, it means that every day we stay in Iraq is another day of war that would stop when we withdrew.

Ryan Crocker says the future is up to Sadr and Iran:

"Sadr has a dilemma. He can't have it both ways," Crocker said, indicating the cleric can either lead his followers into mainstream political life in Iraq or move closer to the extremist militias."

Iran must decide whether "to support the state or the militias," and said Iraqis have a sense that Iran was involved in starting the Basra fighting. Crocker said Iran was not instrumental in bringing about the cease-fire agreement.
--
Who's in charge over there, anyhow? The US embassy in Baghdad isn't even safe any more because Iraqi freedom fighters have longer-range, more accurate rockets.

from US Embassy Baghdad, 27 Mar 08:
This is to notify all U.S. citizens in Iraq that the U.S. Embassy has announced that, until further notice, all personnel under the authority of the Chief of Mission are required to wear body armor, helmet and protective eyewear anytime they are outside of building structures in the International Zone. In addition, Chief of Mission personnel in the International Zone have been advised to remain inside of hardened structures at all times, except for mission essential movements. The Department of State continues to strongly warn U.S. citizens against travel to Iraq, which remains very dangerous.

Nuri Al-Maliki's Operation FUBAR in Basra will go down in history (if it hasn't already) as the monor-league equivalent of Nguyen Van Thieu's "Operation Lam Son 719" (see Wikipedia for details) in Laos. Iraqification (or, "Browning the Bodies") has recapitulated Vietnamization (i.e., "Yellowing the Corpses") as yet another American sacrifice of yet another hapless foreign American puppet on the altar of America's still-failing-and-flailing post-colonial colonialism.

In the American Age of Orwellian Doublethink and Duckspeak, domestic politics do not stop at the waters edge, they begin there. So the question -- as always regarding American-sponsored/provoked puppet Operations FUBAR and SNAFU -- remains: What political profit can the American regime du jour extract from the latest humiliating evidence that what America wants and/or doesn't want couldn't matter less to the local colonial victims of what H. L. Menken called "the strife of the parties at Washington"?

A key clue to this question's answer will emerge when General David "ass-kissing-little-chicken-shit" Petraeus indicates where he will reside during his upcoming "progress-of-the-progressing-progress" Congessional testimony. Will this dog-and-pony showman, like the last time, move into plush quarters supplied him in Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnel's offices? Or, will the tax-payer-supported Pentagram put up the political weasel for a few days and nights of "professional military" duty? In other words, who really wants to own this tap-dancing ticket-puncher and the bullshit baggage he carries with him?