TPMCafe
« Skid Row Part 5: Afterword | Home | Comcast's Legacy Grows -- Throttling, Packing and now 9/11 »

Sub Prime Crisis Hits the Bush Family

user-pic

Yesterday, George H.W. Bush's partners at the Carlyle Group were unable to make a margin call on a bunch of Mortgage-backed Securities. They've decided to walk away from a house that's "underwater" saying the security prices "are not representative of the underlying recoverable value of these securities."

Nothing like setting a good example for a nation experiencing a "jingle mail" epidemic of homeowners mailing the keys back to the bank when their mortgage is higher than their home value.


30 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

If one's mortgage is higher than the value of the home and "underwater" then walking away is the only smart thing to do.

Many people can save $100K to $400K+ depending on the market they're in, by walking away from ridiculously inflated houses bought during the bubble's peak. Then purchase a new home (maybe even the same home) at greatly reduced prices. the bubble was >40% in some markets. Accounting for interest and a 20year mortgage, that translates to an extra 10 years for some buyers!

10 years extra working to pay for a bubble! It's legal slavery and usury. Disgusting.

Those who got loans and are considering foreclosing shouldn't worry about their credit score. Credit scores are relative to the nation as a whole, and the housing collapse is universal. As soon as the housing bubble deflates and prices correct, somewhere about 40% down from the peak in many markets, the lenders will again be clamoring to make housing loans because they're still a very safe and profitable business overall. Additionally the housing collapse is prompting determined political pressure from tens of millions for relief and the creation of better lending practices to promote home ownership without bubbles.

People who got jumbo loans once already are still the safest investment and will continue to get loans. So don't fall for banks scare tactics to keep people in untenable loans and bad investments.

user-pic

But they shouldn't just walk away ("jingle mail" is a metaphor not a plan).

They should try and stay in the home without paying anything on the mortgage,taxes, etc. for as long as legally possible (until post-foreclosure the sheriff drives them out). Use all that "free rent" to pay down other debt (auto and credit cards) and to build up savings for the down payment on the next home purchase.

user-pic

An emerging story, which has not yet received the media's spotlight is the decision of the Board of Director's of Washington Mutual to revise their compensation package in such a manner that they will still get their bonuses.

This speaks to the failure of our corporate leaders to: first, accept responsibility for their failures and second, to act in an ethical manner. The Board of WAMU should be offering their resignations and publicly stating that they will forgo any compensation.

It was their failure to provide adequate oversight for the current sub prime crisis.

Please see Wall Street Journal

user-pic

My last sentence was badly worded. WAMU is not the cause of the sub prime crisis. WAMU is simply one of many companies that contributed to the creation of this problem.

10 years extra working to pay for a bubble! It's legal slavery and usury. Disgusting.
You're full of shit. That's what's disgusting.

Carlyle bought on margin and lost their equity when they walked away. The lenders took back the securities and tried to sell them again. Those are the risks.

Ditto the homeowners. You and others want to portray them as innocents fleeced by evil companies. Bullshit. Those who got in with no down lose only their payments...if any, unless they have significant assets - in which case they were very greedy and got what they deserve.

Ellen even recommends staying on rent free for as long as possible. Why not steal the stove and water heater when you leave...and trash what's left for good measure. Good populist advice.

user-pic

You're right. We must do whatever banks say to do. We must worship the banks!

user-pic

I just can't countenance “Taking the inside of the house with you.” Why that's really immoral!

user-pic

Brother Offensive apparently is unaware that you cannot "steal" that which you already own. There is no obligtion to return the premises to the foreclosing entity fully equipped with appliances.

That which can move, may legally be moved.

B.O. throws around meretricious nuggets like American G.I.'s distributing sweets and flowers (oh wait, they were supposed to be GETTING sweets. nevermind.)

user-pic

What total bullshit. Re-read your mortgage.

user-pic

Reading JollyRoger's post more closely, yes, you can remove non-fixtures; I was responding to the story about ripping out outlets and such.

user-pic

outlets would be wrong.

refrigerators are always right.

likewise electric stoves.

washing machines, dryers, ok.

I'm always a little queasy about the water heater though, and I think that betrays a certain inner weakness of will, because it is really not distinguishable from, say, a gas range or a washing machine.

user-pic

It would be truly frightening economic news if Carlyle were really unable to make a margin call. Unwilling is a different story.

Please use accurate language so as not to frighten readers who are still on their first cup of coffe.

Thank you.

Most houses are bought and sold by ordinary people for any number of legitimate reasons. None of that would have been possible without lenders - banks and investors. In fact, modern society would be impossible without them.

Nor are lenders all super rich. Most of them are quite ordinary folks trying to send their kids to college, move to a better neighborhood, plan for retirement. But even if they were they deserve the protection of the law, the right to demand that contracts be honored, and their property respected.

As for appliances, brother jolly, that was just a metaphor. If they own them - meaning they are fully paid for - they can do with them as they choose.

user-pic

If they own them - meaning they are fully paid for - they can do with them as they choose.

Well, that is right christian of you, Brother O.

Since I seem to be in the free legal advice business today, let me expand a trifle upon your flawed formula:

They can take with them anything not permanently affixed, whether they owe Sears for the stove or not. The mortgagees security interest does not extend to the appliances. Ownership, in this context, of personal (not real) property is independent of any amounts owing on the item, regardless of the potential securitization of the upaid balance, which is a matter for the owner and appliance seller only.

Thus, your rather gratuitious condition "fully paid for" is merely a snotty afterthought.

user-pic

Ho, ho, ho and a bottle of rum; jollyroger's having fun.

DIP for Dummies. I love it.

user-pic
user-pic

Did I mention treble damages? Punitives? Discovery guaranteed to put some folks in jail?

user-pic

And a Saville Row tailor for the prevailing attorney?

user-pic

Well, what did you wear for your driver's llicense pic?

user-pic

Aaargh!

user-pic

Step right this way, ladies and gents, children of all ages, and whatever pets you choose to bring, gape in horror at the crooked appraiser, see the bloated commissioned mortgage broker, he walks, he talks, he crawls on his belly like an animal...

Welcome to the R.I.C.O. arcade.

user-pic

Don't forget the homeowners: the greedy, the financially ignorant, and the whiny "but how is it possible I can *lose* money?" types.

Casting this as just a matter of financial fraud misses a large part of the cause of the shitpile. Assuming that all homeowners are innocent victims is just naive, just as assuming that all mortgage lenders are rapacious and fraudulent is.

But simple solutions for simple minds, I guess.

user-pic

just as assuming that all mortgage lenders are rapacious and fraudulent is.

Who said anything about assumptions?

I'm talking about allegations.

user-pic

You certainly seem to be expanding the (likely true) allegations against some lenders to cover all lenders.

For each lender who deserves to be financially (and criminally) punished, you can also find a homeowner who deserves to spend those 10 years paying off their bad bet on the home market.

If there isn't a sufficiently large stick along with the carrot of appreciating home prices then we're just going to be repeating this fiasco in another 20 years. I still remember the 1984-85 collapse well. Seems like I bought around then...

user-pic

You certainly seem to be expanding the (likely true) allegations against some lenders to cover all lenders

I like to think of it as preconditioning the universe of discourse in which the new terms of the encumbrance will be negotiated so as to facilitate an expeditious and satisfactory resolution.

user-pic

I'm a little nervous writing in a roomful of smarties, but I was interested in the Fed Reserve Chair's call for mortgage writedowns. The accompanying article said that banks would have a problem with this, which seems obvious.

I have one question--how is it that banks seem particularly reluctant to write down loans that are Fannie Mae guaranteed? Is it because they can get all the cash from Fannie Mae if the customer defaults? I would think Fannie Mae would be happy to take 60% in this market and would be encouraging banks to take the deal.

I would also like to run a thought by you all. Rather than write down the actual mortgage total, what if the lender were to lower the interest rate to something crazy like 2%, in return for the homeowner's promise to pay some amount--$200, $300, $500, whatever, per month, ON THE PRINCIPAL? They could work it out so that the total payment per month would be 60-75% of the current payment, which would give the homeowner a bit of a break, and the bank would be getting cash flow one way or another, which is what they need.

This would lower the total cost of the property by a lot, without changing the "value" which in today's market is anybody's guess anyway.

I think it would also have the effect of shoring up consumer confidence about themselves and their home purchases. Right now one of the reasons people are walking away is that they are upside down on value and feel their purchase was a huge mistake. In other words, there may be a bit of a shame spiral fueling this thing.

The combination low-interest/principal payment plan could be seen not as a handout or bailout, just a legitimate renegotiation by which banks could give honest people a chance to legitimately hack away at the principal on their loan. (And it could happen without banks ever having to actually say they are sorry.) People would love to watch the loan amount drop each month, and if their statement also included information about how much lower the total cost of their property would be than with a conventional 7% loan, it would cheer them up as well.

Best of all, when (if?) all the fuss dies down and the market turns around, the people who lined up in the early years of the century to buy homes they secretly knew they couldn't afford but desperately wanted anyway may actually find themselves with some equity. A lot of discussion on this issue has centered on poor people and people of color who used these subprime mortgages and will be worse off than ever after foreclosure. Maybe this plan could actually effect a teeny little wealth transfer to a group of people who need it.

I know that the whole economy thing is kind of a shared hallucination anyway--maybe this is just a way of making the trip seem better, but maybe it would actually work. You could call it the "Pride in America" payment plan, or the "Pride of Ownership" plan, or something.

Thoughts from the group?

user-pic

If they restructure the loan they may be able to maintain the fiction of not having to write down the asset. If they reduce the principal it hits the balance sheet immediately.

user-pic

"I know that the whole economy thing is kind of a shared hallucination anyway..."

I wish I could still share the hallucination.:) After experiencing an unwilling unsuspension of disbelief several years ago it really difficult to discuss economics with people who still believe.

----------------------------------------------

Thought you might be interested in another suggested way out of this mess.

From the New Deal, a way out of a mess

"During the Depression, President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Congress dealt with huge impending foreclosures by creating the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation. Now, a small but growing group of academics and public figures ... is calling for the federal government to bring back something like the HOLC. Count me in.

"The HOLC was established in June 1933 to help distressed families avert foreclosures by replacing mortgages that were in or near default with new ones that homeowners could afford. It did so by buying old mortgages from banks ... and then issuing new loans to homeowners. The HOLC financed itself by borrowing from capital markets and the Treasury.

"The scale of the operation was impressive. Within two years, the HOLC received about 1.9 million applications ... and granted just over a million new mortgages. (Adjusting only for population growth, the corresponding mortgage figure today would be almost 2.5 million.) Nearly one of every five mortgages in America became owned by the HOLC. Its total lending over its lifetime amounted to $3.5 billion — a colossal sum equal to 5 percent of a year’s gross domestic product at the time. (The corresponding figure today would be about $750 billion.)

"As a public corporation chartered for a public purpose, the HOLC was a patient and even lenient lender. It tried to keep delinquent borrowers on track with debt counseling... But times were tough in the 1930s, and nearly 20 percent of the HOLC’s borrowers defaulted anyway. So the corporation eventually acquired ownership of about 200,000 houses, nearly all of which were sold by 1944. The HOLC closed its books in 1951, or 15 years after its last 1936 mortgage was paid off, with a small profit. It was a heavy lift, but the incredible HOLC lifted it.

"Today’s lift would be far lighter. And a good thing, too, because our government is far more timid and divided than Roosevelt’s. ..."

user-pic

loans that are Fannie Mae guaranteed

I think part of the problem arises from the inflation of house values pushing most (many?) loans past the old guarantee ceiling (so called "jumbo" loans)

Maybe this plan could actually effect a teeny little wealth transfer to a group of people who need it.

I'd settle for as much compassion as we squeeze out of divorcing parents:Let the kids stay in the house till hey finish school...

Dean Baker has elsewhere proposed his "own to rent" plan which has some of the elements of creatively re-jiggering the equities of ownership and occupancy along the lines you suggest, but almost any plan runs afoul (it seems) of the astronomical nature of the over-valuation of real estate that has occurred, essentially slashing what used to be the the implied income accruing from occupying a particular space vs the cost of renting comparable space.

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »





Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Kyle Krahel-Frolander



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address