Question for John McCain
Is the economic "slowdown" (President Bush's term) in the United States related to the Iraq War?
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Is the economic "slowdown" (President Bush's term) in the United States related to the Iraq War?
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As with most good questions, it requires a reporter or journalist with minimum ability to ask it and we do not have many who are that talented.
February 29, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
No question is too stupid to be asked, but some are too stupid to be answered.
February 29, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Anne Coulter's face staring at me wherever I go on this site? My eyes are actually hurting!
February 29, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear that. It's kind of encouraging that she's so desperate for readers now, that she's been reduced to begging on known progressive sites.
Good riddance to bad garbage. Wear shades and always use protection.
:P
March 1, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now it's a Romney, (actually Pollingpointsurvey) ad. Later it will Obama, or Hillary, or Newt Gingrich, or Steve Sauerberg. This is where lots of ad money for internet venues goes---adservers that just chase keywords. Also responsible for slow page loading.
March 1, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I noticed after I typed my reply that I got three articles for Coulter on the page. [[[shudder]]]
March 1, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't have to physically print money when you can keep interest rates artificially low.
Think about it.
March 1, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course it is. Duh.
March 1, 2008 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, it isn't. There is a ton of garbage that we can legitimately throw at Bush without making up nonsense. The recession is due to the collapse of the housing bubble, which had its roots back in the stock bubble days. Bush shares blame for not reining in the bubble, but the war had nothing to do with it.
March 1, 2008 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Too conventional, Dean; too conventional.
'04 -- Americans are souring on the war; it'll be a hard fought Presidential campaign and George is gonna need a bundle of boodle. Gotta get those hedge fund managers and Wall Street bankers to open their wallets. But ---
The economy's recovering, the Chinese are buying up every dollar the USG can float, the long-short interest spread is narrowing, and the dollar is rising in value (so long "carry trade" -- borrow yen short, lend dollars long). 2004 looks like it might not be that good a year for the high rollers or GWB's campaign finances.
Greenspan's answer? Solve their problems by keeping interest rates ridiculously low, at least until after November 4.
So, you see? It really is all about the War in Iraq.
March 1, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I take it then, Mr. Baker, that you Dispute Prof. Stiglitz who The Australian reported as saying:
"Professor Stiglitz told the Chatham House think tank in London that the Bush White House was currently estimating the cost of the war at about $US500 billion, but that figure massively understated things such as the medical and welfare costs of US military servicemen.
The war was now the second-most expensive in US history after World War II and the second-longest after Vietnam, he said.
The spending on Iraq was a hidden cause of the current credit crunch because the US central bank responded to the massive financial drain of the war by flooding the American economy with cheap credit.
"The regulators were looking the other way and money was being lent to anybody this side of a life-support system," he said.
That led to a housing bubble and a consumption boom, and the fallout was plunging the US economy into recession and saddling the next US president with the biggest budget deficit in history, he said.
Professor Stiglitz, an academic at the Columbia Business School and a former economic adviser to president Bill Clinton, said a further $US500 billion was going to be spent on the fighting in the next two years and that could have been used more effectively to improve the security and quality of life of Americans and the rest of the world."
The full article is at:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23286149-2703,00.html
March 1, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
The war is expensive and an enormous waste of both lives and money, but that doesn't make it responsible for the housing bubble. The claim that the war led to the bubble fails every logical test. The bubble preceded the war. The war raises interest rates -- low interest rates fueled the bubble.
I just don't see the connection. I have always opposed the war (I was marching with the peace weenies before the war began) and I think Bush's economic policies have been awful, but this one just doesn't make sense.
March 2, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
For my part, it's not necessary for me to argue that the war 'created' the housing bubble. That's not the question that has been posed, and it seems to me that you're being evasive in making that the question you struggle to respond to.
On the other hand, the war doesn't have to create the bubble to have an impact on the bubble. War based public policies might have sent the bubble swelling to a greater degree than otherwise. It's not unsound to argue that the war drove policy choices that turned the bubble from one sort of situation to quite another less sustainable situation.
It's not unsound to argue that the war's consequences and policies might trigger an implosion or collapse of that bubble.
Exactly.
March 2, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think then that the policy of maintaining cheap credit wasn't at all related to the war and keeping the economy going despite the incredible amount of borrowing the government was doing? I just want to be clear because it seems to me that the obscene pace of borrowing to fund the war is related to all our economic woes presently simply because we are now hard pressed to find resources to borrow because of it. Is that not a logical way to view our present situation at least in part? The Grover Norquist/Republican policy of driving up the defiticit as high as possible in order to kill just about all government programs other than defense and social security has this effect by design does it not?
March 2, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Iraq war has not been a wise investment and it may exacerbate our current economic problems and diminish our future prosperity. The current economic slowdown, however, has clearly been caused primarily by the collapse in the housing market, not by the war. I think a far more interesting question for McCain and other Republicans would be "What was the more important driver of economic growth during the Bush administration: the tax cuts or the housing bubble?" The answer to that question has to be "the housing bubble," despite what Republicans like to claim. Tax cuts may have provided some stimulus, but the primary driver of the economy since Bush has been president has been the rise in home prices and the related availability of consumer credit (credit made even cheaper and therefore more attractive to borrowers by Fed monetary policy). That wasn't a sound basis for real economic growth and we're paying the price now. The real question for our politicians is what happens after the correction and how do we create a more durable source of economic growth for the future?
March 1, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
William Jefferson Clinton and George Walker Bush -- "The Fabulous Bubble Boys"!
March 1, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its obvious that Reed Hunt is a surrender monkey that doesn't support the troops.
March 1, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's a joke how Republicans keep talking about tax and spend Democrats. The Republican spend and spend record makes the Democrats look like Republicans. The Republicans are a fiscal trainwreck. If they were a household, they'd be on the verge of losing their house begging themselves for sub-prime relief!
Just look at their war of convenience in Iraq. The latest estimate is that the Iraq war alone will cost 3 to 5 trillion dollars, not to mention far more America lives than we lost in the 9/11 event which prompted the war. That's an abysmal rate of return on every count. That's orders of magnitude more than the $60 billion Republicans told us it would cost when they were selling the war. That's orders of magnitude higher than any number the Republicans are even trying to pin to the Democrats for anything. And the Republicans are ignoring the data, saying we can afford to be in Iraq for another hundred years.
Now Bush tells us we are not going into a recession. What a joke. And the Republican nominee for President, McCain, admits he also doesn't know squat about the economy.
It's beyond me why anyone would listen to the Republicans anymore. What's even more staggering is that after such a terrible record, the Republicans would be so arrogant as to harshly criticize anyone else on fiscal responsibility. The Republican electorate, their fast talking arrogant rude pundits like Rush and Coulter, and most of all their Republican leaders, need to be quiet and take a good long hard look at themselves.
In the meantime, let's bring in someone smart with a fresh approach. Let's bring in someone who is not going to spend all his energy fighting and tearing people down. Let's bring in someone who can bring us together to bring real change to the direction of America. That's what we need. That's our only hope for change. Otherwise it's status quo, and despite what the Republicans are telling us, status quo is looking pretty bad right now.
Obama '08. Yes we can!
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/29/content_7694954.htm
"WASHINGTON, Feb. 29 (Xinhua) -- The Iraq war will cost Americans between 3 trillion and 5 trillion U.S. dollars, including military spending, broader economic costs and decades of benefits and medical care for combat veterans, a Nobel prize-winning economist said.
In a testimony at the Congress Thursday, Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001 and a professor at Columbia University, gave his latest estimate of the war's economic impact, the Cox News service reported Friday.
The upper end of the estimate is nearly double what Stiglitz had projected just two years ago.
He attributed the dramatic increase to the continuing intensity of the war, which will be five years old by next month, and the likelihood that operations there would continue for at least another year.
The war's gravest toll has been paid in blood.
Fighting in Iraq has so far taken the lives of 3,973 U.S. troops and left nearly 29,300 wounded."
March 1, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Duck Soup's handle reminds me ---
Say the magic word (Obama) and the duck will come down!
March 1, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen is obviously Reed Hundt's George Fenniman.
March 1, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the 911 event did NOT prompt the war; it provided George Bush (with some aiding and abetting from the MSM, many liars in and out of Congress, oh--and did I mention Colin Powell?)
an EXCUSE for the illigal invasion and occupation.
War? It isn't a war. George likes to call it a war so he can be a war president.
March 1, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The $3 trillion war tab is just for Iraq; Tony Fratto, Bush shill, explained it all away last week by saying that it was a small price to pay for our security, in the wake of 9/11--unfortunately, nobody in the press gaggle told him that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11.
The $3 trillion is a dumbsh*t tax that we and our children are going to be paying off for a long, long time, on behalf of all the wannabe tough guys and mouth-breathing simpletons who *had* to go make war on *somebody* after 9/11. Feel better, a**holes? Ironic, isn't it, that *you* are the fools who have thrown the country in the crapper...
btw, I look forward to Dean's response to the Stiglietz interview.
March 1, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dave says,
"Tony Fratto, Bush shill, explained it all away last week by saying that it was a small price to pay for our security, in the wake of 9/11--"
One might ask Tony; What did Tony Fratto pay?
March 1, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops, I see Dean's response in the earlier thread--that'll teach me to comment from the top down.
March 1, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Economic Slowdown"? This really does speak to a fundamental misunderstanding of the American economy under Bush.
The truth is that Bush's administration began with an induced recession and the collapse of the tech boom. Inevitably the tech boom was unsustainable, but there was a question as to whether it could be brought into a soft landing. However, the Bush administration was strictly 'old economy' and had little or no interest in the knowledge or tech economy, except under the most utilitarian purposes. I'll leave it to the tech visionairies to lament lost opportunities.
Instead, Bush's policy emphasis focused on the old traditional corporate oligopolies, and in particular on deconstricting these oligopolies. Enron was a notable result. The inevitable economic shifts were large transfers of wealth away from working and middle classes, and consolidation of elites, who also evaded tax burdens.
What did this lead to? Exacerbation of existing trends mainly. Middle and working class families found themselves taking two or three jobs per household to make ends meet. Their savings declined to zero. Illusory wealth was manufactured by inflation of housing prices and a deregulated approach to lending. But as I said, that was illusory wealth from start to finish.
Where does the Iraq war fit into this? Easy.
Everyone misses the point so far. It's energy prices. Oil went from 12 dollars a barrel to 103 dollars a barrel in eight years. This is solely due to the Iraq War and no other causes. Even with substantial intervention to cushion the impact of deformation of energy prices, that fundamental linchpin could not be evaded.
With energy shock moving through the world economy, and into the United States economy, a relatively artificial 'housing boom' could not be sustained. More to the point, the middle and working classes - overtaxed, vulnerable, stressed and already at its physical, emotional and financial limits simply doesn't have the wherewithal to keep the economy going.
March 1, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. Not for nothing are energy costs excluded from "core inflation". Even being generous about current dollars we have something like a fourfold increase.
I'd say it feels like post-Vietnam stagflation combined with 1930 financial crises. Time for another, better, New Deal.
March 1, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oil went from 12 dollars a barrel to 103 dollars a barrel in eight years. This is solely due to the Iraq War and no other causes. Valdron
Ridiculous!
March 1, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Soaring medical costs made that a double whammy.
March 1, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's 3:00 am, and your children may be safe and asleep at home . . . but if you're smart you won't let 'em anywhere near the Whitehouse with bored ole Bill on the prowl . . .
March 1, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops . . . posted that in the wrong thread somehow and don't know how to delete it . . .
March 1, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
zzzzzzzzzzzzz
March 1, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here my comments to my question:
-- I said "related" and not "sole cause of"
-- How could such massive government spending not contribute to inflation, given the absence of any tax to fund the spending?
--How could such massive spending not represent a giant opportunity cost?
--If one of the strategic benefits of the invasion was to be a peaceful, capitalistic Iraq integrated with the West, then how could the failure to achieve that result not have an impact on (I didn't say "sole cause") oil prices, and thus inflation and reduced economic growth?
--Doesn't anyone think the Iraq situation negatively affects American ability to shape world trade and to open global markets for our exports?
--And how can another one or two or more billion dollars of spending on Iraq not exacerbate all of the above?
March 1, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's threads like this that make me despair of America and Americans. How did the the flagship of the enlightenment fall so far and so low?
If anyone seriously thinks that hundred dollar oil prices have nothing to do with the Iraq War and Bush's middle east bungling, let them step forward.
One might argue that other factors are involved in rising oil prices, but the ugly truth is that if you take Bush out of the equation, its a completely different marketplace.
Overall, the discussion is limited. People assume that the performance of the United States economy is unrelated to the Iraq war. That in a larger sense, its unrelated to the military industrial complex. These are dubious propositions to say the least.
March 1, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's not the adventures of George W. Bush, then why have oil prices crept up to a hundred dollars a barrel?
Magical elves?
And why aren't energy costs dragging down the American economy?
The same magical elves?
March 2, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought I have been about as clear and non-evasive as possible. War spending helps to boost the economy in the short-term especially when the economy is weak -- as it was in 2003 and 2004. That means that Alan Greenspan would have LESS, and in not as much, reason to try to boost the economy with low rates because we were spending money on the war in Iraq. That means that if anything, the war restrained the growth of the housing bubble.
If someone wants to claim that the war somehow led to the bursting of the bubble, I think that would be an extremely hard case, but if it is true, then it would be one very positive thing that came from the war. The earlier the bubble bursts the better. We would have been better off it burst in 2005 than 2007, and much better off if it burst in 2003 or 2002. The longer it persists, the bigger it grows and the more money people eventually lose.
I don't think you can tell a plausible story that has the war as the cause of the bubble bursting, but that would be an argument for it having a good effect on the economy, not a bad effect.
Look, the war sucks and it is bad for the economy over the long-term, but that doesn't mean that we can blame everything we don't like on the war. I was pissed that the White Sox didn't win the World Series this year, but I can't blame the war in Iraq for that. Similarly, the war is not responsible for the housing bubble. Let's focus on the real villains -- the Fed, the Wall Street clowns, and the economists who are too dumb to see an $8 trillion bubble in front of their face.
March 2, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now we are getting somewhere. Recall Reed's original question:
"Is the economic "slowdown" (President Bush's term) in the United States related to the Iraq War?"
An mention of the housing bubble in there? Not explicitly. Rather, I suppose one might argue that the housing bubble is a component of the economic slowdown, or the larger economic picture.
But Reed's question relates to the big picture.
Dean seems to have a penchant for not replying to actual questions, but rather he prefers to respond to his own versions of questions. Easier to get to the answers you want to give?
Dean works very hard to make the argument that the War and the Housing bubble are entirely unrelated. Or that if they're related its a good thing. But he's not actually dealing with Reed's questions, except in an indirect and evasive way.
But let's take a close look shall we.
Dean says: "War spending boosts the economy in the short term, especially when the economy is weak."
Dean then says: "The economy was weak in 2003 - 2004."
So, I guess my question is are we still in the 'short term' five years later, when the economy is being boosted?
Or are we entering that magical period when the 800 pound gorillas return to the henhouse to roost? (there's an art to mangling a metaphor, don't try this at home)
Dean then argues that the 'War restrained the housing bubble.' By providing an artificial boost to a weak economy??? I dunno...
Dean's thesis is that the war would have made Greenspan's 'low interest' policies unnecessary to stimulate the economy, because the war was already doing this.
On the other hand, Dean's previously said that the Housing bubble and by implication Greenspan's policies actually preceded the war.
So... what would the result of the war, as an artificial stimulus on a weak economy, have on the already forming housing bubble, which would be the most sensitive part of the economy to artificial stimulation, bouyed as it was by exuberant irrationalism?
Dean argues that it would have been better off if the bubble burst earlier than later. I agree.
I think we both agree that bubbles eventually burst sooner or later.
So, what stopped the bubble from bursting in 2003 and 2004... when the economy was weak?
What stopped the bubble from bursting in 2005 and 2006, when presumably the artificial short term stimulus of the war was pumping up the economy?
And supposing that the artificial stimulation of the war stopped working, after... say, oh, about five years... The chickens start coming home to roost...
I don't blame the war for everything. I think that we have to look at the much larger picture. But I do think that its a mistake to ignore the war as a meaningful part of that picture.
March 2, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: Do you think then that the policy of maintaining cheap credit wasn't at all related to the war and keeping the economy going despite the incredible amount of borrowing the government was doing?
The incredible amount of borrowing is mainly due to the Bush tax cuts, not Iraq. The federal budget went down the dumper even before 9-11 happened. Iraq may be frosting on the cake, but it doesn't come close to explaining the mess the economy is in.
What I see here is a desperate attempt by people who want the war to be the primary campaign issue to tie the war to what is fast becoming the overwhelming issue of this election year, the souring economy. Leave it alone. It is, and always has been, "the economy stupid". And while I don't wish for a bad economy (I live here too) if a bad economy helps elect lots of Democrats this year while the war fades to the back pages, that's a result I can easily live with.
Re: Oil went from 12 dollars a barrel to 103 dollars a barrel in eight years. This is solely due to the Iraq War and no other causes.
Iraq certainly plays a big part in that, but so does economic growth in China and India (and elsewhere), the shenanigans of Hugo Chavez and other oil-bearing dictators, and the entry of major-league speculators (Goldmann-Sachs etc.) into the oil futures market.
Re: but the ugly truth is that if you take Bush out of the equation, its a completely different marketplace.
Without the Iraq War oil would probably be about $70/bbl. Take the speculators out of the market and it might fall to around $50/bbl. That's still well over what it was eight years ago.
March 2, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: Oil went from 12 dollars a barrel to 103 dollars a barrel in eight years. This is solely due to the Iraq War and no other causes.
Iraq certainly plays a big part in that, but so does economic growth in China and India (and elsewhere), the shenanigans of Hugo Chavez and other oil-bearing dictators, and the entry of major-league speculators (Goldmann-Sachs etc.) into the oil futures market.
Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but Hugo Chavez is not actually a dictator. He's democratically elected and by all accounts enjoys the support of a clear majority of Venezualans... notwithstanding the occasionally illegal and murderous efforts of his opponents.
It's not clear to me that Venezuala's travails over the past eight years have had significant effects on world oil prices. Or, more importantly, that those effects would have ever been significant absent the effects of the Iraq war and Bush's bellicose foreign policy (the runaway militarization of the Persian Gulf, threats to Iran, meddling in Afghanistan and Central Asia).
As for other 'oil bearing dictators' Shenanigans, I know not of what you speak. The Persian gulf potentates shenanigans are all part of the Greater Bushco venture. Beyond that, Suharto and Indonesia had a smooth transfer of power, the central European meddling was ineffectual, nothing remarkable has happened in Nigeria and Chad, places like that... nothing pleasant has happened there either, but that's beside the point.
And as for Putin's use of energy supplies as a tool of political influence and coercion... well, he's not a dictator either. And at least in part, his aggressive policies are both a reaction to the Iraq war, and enabled by the situations created by the Iraq war.
On the subject of speculators, I don't think that speculators would have been all that significant a force, or would have even bothered entering the marketplace in numbers sufficient to be a force... except for the Iraq War.
So what's left... economic growth in China and India? Certainly that has a contribution. But the impact of China and India would not have been nearly as severe, but for the issues of instability created by the Iraq war.
March 2, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, it isn't. There is a ton of garbage that we can legitimately throw at Bush without making up nonsense. The recession is due to the collapse of the housing bubble, which had its roots back in the stock bubble days. Bush shares blame for not reining in the bubble, but the war had nothing to do with it.
I should rephrase what I meant. Of course the war is not the primary cause of the recession. The Federal Reserve printing out too much money is what caused it, through creating the bubble. (I believe in the gold standard).
What I meant to say by affirming that the recession is "related to the war" is that the war is having an impact, and is making the problem worse.
March 4, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink