The Super Delegate debate is very important for two reasons:

1) The delegate count in 2008 may be very close and even a small percentage of SD's going against the electorate could throw the convention.

2) The principles SDs represent need to be discussed openly by an informed public, not merely decided behind closed doors by part insiders. Let us remember this is The People's party, running on our contributions and taxes, only made real by our efforts. The overall question is whether the public is aware of the SD issue to begin with, and whether SDs should be allowed to throw conventions to insiders, and if so, what that says about rank and file Democratic ownership of their own party.

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Regarding the upcoming large states, Hillary needs to lead in them not just by narrow margins, but by big margins, to offset Obama's current 119 pledged delegate lead, likely to increase further on the 19th.

Wisconsin has 92 delegates, with Obama polling ahead by about 4 points, for a gain of about 11 points since December. If Obama wins there by 5 points that's about a 5 delegate gain, which would bring him to +124 in elected delegates. Hawaii I'm not sure about, but assume he takes it in a landslide putting him maybe +130 elected pledged delegates.

TX is the largest upcoming state with 228 delegates, and a hybrid primary/caucus on March 4th. Hillary was polling a 10 point lead prior to the Potomac primaries, though it's been declining as Obama gains. However, only 126 of TX delegates are pledged in the primary vote, the remaining 102 are decided by the caucus and later at the convention. Meaning that even if Hillary can hold a 10 point lead, that translates into perhaps a +12 gain in the primary part, with Obama's more politcal and motivated supporters typically doing better in the caucus part. Even if she gains a 10 point lead in delegates overall, primary and caucus, that's about +23 gain for her.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8UPL8G80.html

Ohio has 161 delegates, where Hillary is currently ahead by about 17 points. If that holds, it could translate into a +27 delegate gain for her, which is probably a best case scenario. However, the 17 point spread is down from a 25 point spread in Early January, and a 20 point lead in early February.

Pennsylvania has 188 delegates, and Hillary has about a ~16 point lead in her best case, which would translate into a 30 delegate gain. But again, her lead has been falling rapidly, 10 points since early January.

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So, if you take Hillary's best case scenario within a range of probable outcomes, she picks up maybe +80 delegates. Then Obama would still lead in elected delegates by about +50.

Which would keep the Super Delegates rather relevant as her lead with them is ~75, with many still not "leaning" and holding out.

Going forward from there, Obama probably does better with the remaining states. But again, it's going to be close. And the Super Delegates do matter quite a bit, especially those who have yet to pledge, and whether they follow the lead of the electorate or play establishment gate keeper.

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Josh speculates they would break for Obama and put him over the top if he is leading in all polls, beating McCain, winning the elected delegates, and the popular vote. However, as they say, power is corrupting, and I think he's under estimating the potential for patronage against democratic principles and rational choices.

It could go either way, which is why this issue should be taken seriously and pressure applied to the SDs, now. If the SDs throw the nomination it'll be an outrage. Better to prevent that now than divide the party and fix it later, the hard way, through a long and painful reform process during one or two terms of McCain.

Every single voter, every delegate, and every state matters going forward. This may not be decided till May.

This information is very useful! Thanks!
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