The Attack Takes Shape
Yesterday’s primary results revealed two important things: Obama is the frontrunner, and we have a pretty good idea how McCain plans to attack him.
On the first point, it ain’t over for the D’s, as the primary moves to some big states where Clinton might have more of an edge. But it’s the second point on which I’d like to focus, because it’s important for progressives to get out in front of this one right away.
Early this AM, I debated Stephan Moore, the anti-tax activist and Wall St. Journal editorial writer. He’s explicitly scared by Obama’s momentum and his line of attack was something like: Sure, he’s inspirational, but “where’s the beef?”
And check out McCain from this morning’s Washington Post: “To encourage a country with only rhetoric, rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people, is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.”
It’s an obvious strategy: try to turn your opponent’s strength into his weakness. But it’s nuts. Both Obama and Clinton are incredibly beefy, with policy agendas that are more robust and carefully thought out than that any presidential bid in recent memory. On health care reform alone, they’re trailblazing.
And what are McCain’s “sound and proven ideas?” Stay the course in Iraq for 100 years, if that’s what it takes? Extend the Bush tax cuts? Cut Social Security and Medicare? If these are the sound and proven ideas that are supposed to expose the empty rhetoric of the other side, the man’s got a problem.
Reflect back on the debates for a moment, painful as that might be. Once they stopped bickering, Clinton and Obama had substantive arguments about the role of mandates in health care reform and the most effective way to address the bursting housing bubble. John Edwards’ policy agenda was the most ambitious and thoughtful I’ve seen in decades of wonkery.
Meanwhile, the R’s dueled to see who could say “Reagan” more than the next guy, who was the real tax cutter, and who could deport more undocumented workers. To McCain’s credit, he’s held fast to his opposing view on that last point.
Obama appears to be riding an inspirational wave that is resonating deeply, far more than policy minutiae would at this point in time. But it wouldn’t hurt him and the Democrats’ cause, especially as the primaries move into states buffeted by the economic downsides of globalization, like Wisconsin and Ohio, to emphasize his plans for addressing these challenges. He’s got deep beef and so does she. The other guy’s got nada.










Comments (36)
And check out McCain from this morning’s Washington Post: “To encourage a country with only rhetoric, rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people, is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.”
It seems that Obama has had plenty of practice countering this argument, which has been a mainstay of the Clinton campaign, and done pretty well with it so far.
February 13, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only question is not whether the GOP can fend off Obama (nope), but whether the superdelegates want to risk angering their constituents by voting for Clinton at the convention. They might succeed in guaranteeing an opposition Congress.
February 13, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
At the risk of heresy, I like the idea of an opposition Congress. Historically, our country has done better when the party in charge of the White House and the party in charge of Congress were different parties. I just don't want that opposition party to be the Republicans!
February 13, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
An opposition Congress is not a guarantee of wisdom. Hard to say what good came out of Gingrich's obstructionism. And what about the New Deal? Democratic Congress, I thought. Civil Rights was a Democratic Congress and President, also. Yes, so was Vietnam. And Iraq was a Republican WH and Congress.
But there is lots to do, and we don't have the luxury of hoping gridlock will prevent trouble.
February 13, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, this argument has been getting way too much play lately. It seems to go like this: because Obama is great at the poetry part of campaigning, that means he must not be good at the prose part. But it is demonstrably untrue. Obama has offered just as much policy detail as Clinton, and in several areas he has offered more detailed policy commitments while Clinton has taken the fifth, so to speak, and deferred to some bipartisan commission she claims she will appoint to decide the issue. Or she has said that she cannot provide details because she doesn't want to "tip her hand".
The Clinton campaign needs to stop reinforcing the McCain argument.
February 13, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign needs to stop reinforcing the right win arguments against Clinton
February 13, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't kid yourself about what the "plan of attack" is going to be. Sure it might be the "empty platitude" angle, but that will be a minor theme. As you say. McCains platform stinks and he will not try to harp on that general subject.
McCain will hit Obama with a) Racist innuendo, b) Was a former Muslim crap, and c) inexperience. The last will be in contrast to his own substantial experience in foreign policy. Obama simply does not have a lot of experience in that field. He was at one point suggesting he was going to bomb Pakistan if it had a chance to get OBL. Not a diplomatic thing to say about a country that is a) nominally our ally in the "war on terror" and b) has nuclear weapons.
It's not going to be pretty Jared so don't delude yourself. The gloves are going to come off pretty quickly if and when he clinches the nomination.
February 13, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama seems to make the wrong-kind-of-experience versus right-kind-of-judgment argument pretty well. Clinton isn't standing up to that very well, and I don't see why McCain would either, given that he's been spouting off completely insane remarks left and right lately.
Plus, it might be hard to argue that bombing Pakistan to get Al Qaeda top brass is a bad idea when Bush did just that a few weeks ago. If you didn't hear about it, the CIA recently dropped a missile from a predator drone and took out Al-Libi. With the tacit approval of the Pakistani gov't of course. The targeted removal of an actual terrorist strikes me as something to which a number of Americans would be sympathetic.
I don't see your (a) and (b) strategies doing anything to help McCain with independents who mostly know better. They might help galvanize the base, but those aren't voters that Obama would be gunning for anyway. The GE will be fought over independents, where Obama is doing better anyway in both polling and voting numbers.
February 13, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Call me a crazy person if you must jdmonaco, but I don't think that George W. Bush is the paragon of a sound foreign policy.
I also don't think its a good idea to be bombing a barely stable country which is America's ally, and which has nuclear weapons.
When Obama voiced his comments, the Pakistani's went nuts. Just about every time Bush bombs Pakistan, Mushareff gets riots, and gets a bit more precarious.
Would we talk about bombing Britain or Germany? Some things are just a little too nutsoid.
February 13, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Er, sorry I didn't mean to imply it would be hard to argue against or that it was good policy! I meant it is hard for McCain to realistically argue against it since he is basically running on Bush's foreign policy. I agree that that particular alignment for Obama was not one of his best moves. You're not crazy, and I was unclear and/or making a muddled point.
February 13, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's response to this line of attack...
"McCain is a great American hero, worthly and deserving of our respect and admiration. But he has joined the dwindling chorus of those who want to tell the American people what we can't do. We can't leave Iraq. We can't have peace. We can't fix healthcare. We can't change the way we think about America's role in the world.
I've spent a lot of time meeting with people all across this nation, and I can tell that the American people are tired of hearing about what we can't do. They want to hear about what we can do. That is the story of America. That is the spirit of determination and leadership that the rest of the world looks to us for."
Or something like that...
February 13, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, that's good! And quite Obama'esque.
February 13, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, reading Jared Bernstein is like watching a box of kittens wander around on a freeway. He's so wide eyed, innocent and fuzzy... and he has no clue about that semi-truck bearing down on him.
Okay, let's take a look:
Worked incredibly well on John Kerry, Al Gore, and a host of Democrats whose careers are marked by tombstones. So let's not go writing it off just yet...
They're also both pretty much the same. Obama's policy agenda is essentially right/centrist. That's very important. Keep this in mind, because Bernstein also writes:
There's the Republican's point of attack. Bernstein literally trips over it, and still doesn't recognize it.
Obama's 'inspirational wave' is not connected to his policy and program agenda. Indeed, I'd argue that it's somewhat antithetical to it. Obama's inspirational wave is about 'political transformation', about appealing to the powerful desire for a progressive or liberal fantasy figure. He's a vegan dream. Obama's beefy wonkery doesn't match up.
Progressive/left inspirational waves, and centrist/conservative policy platforms are horses going in two directions. The desire to be out of Iraq is met with a play to withdraw slowly over a year and a half, leave residual forces, and go back in any time. The desire for universal health care runs up against some goofball plan for another bastardized optional system to funnel money into corporations. The quest to rebuild America's reputation, gets transmuted into a bellicose threat to bomb Pakistan.
And there's the wedge that McCain will drive like a stake into Obama, and its the wedge that the Republicans will use to start taking apart a President Obama. By focusing on the gap between image and substance in Obama.
McCain, whatever you might think of him, lines up pretty much between policy and image. You might not think much of his continuing commitment to Iraq - but you're sure that he's going to do his damnedest to win, and he's not going to pussyfoot around. If he doesn't know much about economics, well, he's sure to try and do something.
"Deep beef" what an appalling metaphor. It's like Jared's channelling Friedman after a week strapped to a table in a gay bathhouse. Deep beef indeed.
It's clear that Bernstein doesn't understand the nature of Obama's appeal. He doesn't understand the disconnect between that appeal and Obama's policies. He doesn't grasp the effectiveness of a strategy to exploit that disconnect. And at the end of the day, his advice to Obama is to play up that disconnect for all he's worth and showcase his weakness.
Ach, its not Bernstein. Or not just Bernstein. He's par for the course. The entire 'moderate/centrist' American political class is just an endless multi-car wreck. What can you say about a world where Charles Friedman wins a Pulitzer, Christopher Hitchens is still sort of respected, David Frum publishes a book and Maureen Dowd gets a column. All I can say is it's Jared Bernstein's world.
February 13, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clearly, no sane political party will tie its hands by attacking opponents on the basis of facts. Facts are few, and not all convenient, while so many superb attacks can be launched if we disregard them!
Democrats are not sane, so they are usually hindered by facts. In fact, it is a straighjacket: how to simultaneously adhere to facts and to pe-conceptions that serve as "common wisdom" in the media.
February 13, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure the Republicans are dusting off that old picture of Willy Horton for use in the campaign against Obama, and of course there's Obama's middle name, Hussein. But then McCain and his gang will have to say our old ally King Hussein of Jordan was all the horrid things Hussein Obama supposedly is.
When McCain tries to excuse the horrible record of their 6 years control of the government, the scandals, the corruption, the hypocrisy on fiscal and gay issues by claiming; 'We lost our way, my friends", the comeback should be; "You didn't lose your way, what we got from you is what you are."
February 13, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I really don't think the current McCain argument that Obama is all inspiration and no "beef" is likely to last very long, not once Obama starts hammering away on economic policy and pointing out McCain's self-acknowledged ignorance on this topic. Then we'll see which candidate is vague and fuzzy. The fact is, all of the major Democratic candidates have offered far more beef than MCCain, who is running on a vague "I love this wonderful country" schtick. Early in the campaign, McCain is going to get embarrassed several times on economic policy, and will have to tuck the "beef" argument away.
The Republican default position on the economy is "let's keep the government out of the way, and let the entrepreneurial genius of the American people take care of our problems." Well that's never been a very effective message in a recession, when people are in the mood for more assertive action. McCain is in over his head on the economic debate, and that is going to undercut any claims to more realism and specificity.
Nor is the "Obama is a secret Muslim" argument likely to have legs. It's an easily rebutted argument that only works with far right nutbags who are going to vote Republican anyway. McCain is the one whose religious views, or lack of them, have been the object of winger suspicion for years. Obama is the more identifiably and demonstrably "Christian candidate" in this race, and a lot of those Christians are not going to take kindly to attacks on Obama's religion from the more dubious McCain.
Ultimately, McCain is just going to rely on the argument that Obama is too liberal. We're going to get a lot of stuff about immigration, about ACLU-style liberalism, about being soft on Gitmo, soft on Iran and soft on terrorists, about extravagant plans for government spending, etc. Some guy from the National Review was on the the tube last night trumpeting the National Journal's rating that put Obama as the most liberal Senator (Clinton was 16). That's where McCain is going.
McCain is apparently just going to try to counter the call for "change" with a conservative plea to stay the course with "sound and proven ideas."
February 13, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, look around and see the "sound and proven ideas" he's talking about.
As to "The Most Liberal" as judged by the National Journal; is it just coincidence that whoever the Democrats' Presidential nominee is
just happens to be the most liberal?
February 13, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually I think it's a very valid attack on Obama and one that Hillary herself would neglect at her peril.
We are moving into very dark and troubled waters and the rhythmic stroking of platitudes will not be enough to see the nation through them.
I think it says volumes about the present, desperate state of the American psyche that content-less speeches, well delivered by someone with such a tiny CV, could sweep all before them.
Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.
February 13, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steve Clemon's post offers beef.
February 13, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Textured soy protein, at best.
Possibly ground turkey.
February 13, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain will run a two level attack on Obama. The "official" campaign will be on a high policy level designed to attract independents: McCain was right (so far) on the surge, McCain stands for tax cuts (now), McCain has experience, etc. (There will, of course, be the usual surrogate pandering to the right wing - abortion, gay marriage, etc., but not directly from McCain.)
The "unofficial" campaign will have "unaffiliated grass root" attacks on race, religion (both Obama's church and his being a supposed crypto-Muslim), liberalism, etc.
But, there is a way to fight back, and Obama started last night. Everything will be the "Bush-McCain" policies (tax cuts, the war, etc.).
February 13, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Full disclosure: I worked for the Clinton Administration and supported John Edwards this primary cycle.
To me, all this talk of platitudes is beyond laughable. Recall the great political speeches of American history. How many of them were loaded with policy details?
Now go to Obama's website, or Clinton's, or McCain's for that matter, and you'll see plenty of policy ideas, which is the second layer after inspirational speeches. The website platforms show us what the candidates say they care about and how they would address those issues.
The third step, and the thing we can't know until we pick a winner, is what will those website platforms translate to in terms of actual action, and I guess the fourth step is, based on the effectiveness of negotiation, what the resulting policies look like.
To say that Obama is any less substantive than his rivals at this point is untrue.
February 13, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The question is still, who is Barack Obama?
What do we really know about him from direct observation and not what he chooses to tell us? Or that we choose to imagine about him
Both Hillary Clinton and John McCaine, warts and all, are people who have been in the public eye for a long time, they have had their successes and their failures in public. If we like them or dislike them it is because we actually know them. They are personalities that certainly do not encourage fantasizing.
Look, the USA is broke, losing two wars, entering a recession that might even turn into a depression. Getting starry eyed about Obama is like someone who has lost his job, taking his last savings and buying a lottery ticket... Hope.
February 13, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has written two books in which he has told people a tremendous amount about himself and his world view, and has been campaigning now for more than a full year since he announced. Since that time he has written articles in periodicals like Foreign Affairs, sat down for numerous extended interviews, released piles of position papers and participated in an unprecedented number of debates. This is in addition to all of the reams of journalism that have been produced.
Nobody should be starry-eyed. But is is more than a bit exasperating to hear from so many people who seem to have just started paying attention, and apparently limit their intake to the passive viewing of stump speeches on TV, that they don't know enough about Obama. At some point we all have to be responsible for educating ourselves. There are mountains of information out there. If someone needs to know more about Obama they get it and read it.
February 13, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trouble is that while Obama has substance behind him, its not the substance his starry eyed worshippers believe in.
Here's a politician who is consistently to the right of Hillary Clinton, who claims that there's a 'crisis' in Social Security, that Unions are a 'special interest', who opposes universal health care, has voted repeatedly to support George W. Bush's Iraq war, has claimed the right to make unilateral military strikes on the territory of allies like Pakistan, and whose idea of a moderate foreign policy is to announce a willingness to consider foregoing regime change provided that said regime surrenders. Much of the Bill of Lading that Dan K himself lays to condemn Hillary Clinton in the Senate applies big time to Obama.
In short, there's the 'fantasy Obama' and the 'real Obama.' Two different guys. In a primary or election campaign, we can have them both.
But at the end of the election, if he wins, we only get one.
February 13, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think whoever the Dem candidate is should start getting ready to dispute the "sound and proven ideas" McCains' going to keep mentioning. McCain will put forth the same old Republican uncontested bullshit we've been hearing since 1980; economic expansion, taxes, security, jobs, downsizing government, etc.
Republicans are masters at dissembling; One example is Reagan's tax cuts mentioned over and over, but never mentioned are the times he raised taxes...what was it 5 or 6 times? The Dem candidate should be ready to dispute or offer comparisons to McCain's shop worn bullshit.
And lets not forget the scandals in the Reagan years. HUD, EPA, leveraged buy outs with resultant closing of companies with loss of jobs, S&L, and Iran/Contra. Not much has changed under Bush/Cheney, has it?
February 13, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most of what any politician anywhere says has a high bullshit content. It's not entirely their fault, there are many traps waiting for the plain and incautious public speaker ... However when they have been around a long time, it is possible to use our experience of how what they say relates to what they actually end up doing, for us to evaluate correctly the distance between their words and their actions.
Lets look at the recent case of Mitt Romney... There were a lot of actions as a governor and a lot of words as a candidate. Republicans were able to measure the distance between the two and make a decision based on observable facts.
Being President of the United States of America is the country's top job, it is the crowning achievement of a lifetime of service, eight years is as long as you can hold the job, after that you are supposed to fade into the wallpaper. Look at all the shit Bill Clinton is taking for not fading into the wallpaper. The only ex-president that has done anything interesting is Jimmy Carter. Being president is the end of a career, not the beginning of one... Unless you envision a lifetime of after dinner speaking stretching out before you.
How does someone in his 40s with almost no CV have the nerve to present himself for such an important office? JFK was young you say?
John Fitzgerald Kennedy was a war hero, who had been something like fourteen years in the Congress the Senate and had won a Pulitzer Prize (not about his search for his "identity" BTW) before he put himself forward. And today he is not considered to have been a successful president, only a tragic and much loved one.
I am really worried by Barack Obama's chutzpah, I see a boundless ego, untested by reality, standing before 300,000,000 people in a time of crisis and saying. "I am the best person among you to lead you!" I don't know who is crazier, Obama or the people who cry at his speeches.
February 13, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I concurr. My reservation about Obama deals in part with his inexperience. But that's not necessarily fatal in any fashion. Alexander the Great, as is endlessly touted, conquered the world at a younger age.
Age and experience did not make Kerry a better candidate. Compare the young man testifying at Winter Soldiers Hearings, versus the empty suit trundling through the country 25 years later.
Still, boy kings are a risky proposition. The current boy king has done much to destroy the country, largely because no one will oppose him.
The new boy king will not have the opportunity to destroy the country. Rather, he will be at risk of being destroyed by the Republicans.
These are the usual fates of boy kings - to destroy all, or be destroyed by all.
February 13, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
His speeches are just really eloquent speeches. He rallies the troops (so to speak). McCain's speeches are not only empty of content but they're boring.
Get Obama and McCain in a head-to-head debate and see who is empty of content.
Obama's campaign has been so successful partly because they keep a close eye on what the voters are thinking then respond rapidly and effectively. The other candidates haven't demonstrated they can do that.
Have you noticed Obama using the litigator's technique of starting off with 'others have said such and such about me' and then countering the argument. When the opponent says such and such, it is not something new and listeners think 'but Obama shot that down already'.
February 13, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
What worries me is that Obama will outclass McCain so much that he'll make people feel sorry for McCain. I think that was a significant factor in Bush beating Gore. Gore owned Bush in every imaginable way. People who were insecure about their own intelligence resented it. *sigh*
Hopefully, that's just some evening pessimism talking…
February 13, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
“To encourage a country with only rhetoric, rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people, is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.”
mccain was talking about Obama ???
cuz it souds a LOT like mccain was describing the REPUGLITARDS
that's george bush's whole political routine in a single paragraph
February 13, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they seem like "platitudes" to John McCain because John McCain has been in office too long. I mean, everyone gets burnt out.
It's not a characteristic I'd be looking for in someone running for president but who am I to tell the Republicans who their candidate should be?
February 13, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama doesn't exist in a vacumn
there is a reason that people are looking for hope just now
people cry at Obama's speeches because of what george bush has done to our country
those "tried and true"ideas that mccain is selling ???
those ideas are the direct cause of the tear
does ANYBODY ELSE see the dynamic relationship that mccain just set against himself ???
mccain is selling the same old bullshit as a "new" idea
and we have an electorate that already feels betrayed by repuglitard policies
February 13, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
What ails this country is that the people have allowed self-interested parties to distract us from policies that are to our advantage and to the disadvantage of the parties doing the distracting. The policies that benefit us aren't mysterious. Getting from here to there is as simple as taking a step. What the problem has been all these years is that we have been distracted by fears and shiny objects dangled in front of us by large forces that don't want us to see that there is a simple step that we could take that would be very beneficial. That step is the progressive platform. All three of the major Democratic candidates, in some form or other, have presented that platform. What separates Obama from the pack is that he presents a cohesive and powerful vision strong enough to overwhelm the fears and shiny objects. That is what has been missing. Not policy details, but the power to persuade. He is the right wing's worst nightmare – a progressive who won't be marginalized.
February 13, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
See what I mean?
February 13, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the late and great Paul Wellstone ran for President the same argument could have been made against him, he has no experience for such an office. Does being Governor give you the experience needed to run a Country?
To me, Bush and Obama are equal in "experience", but to me its what their values are that count.
Now unless Obama is selling us snake oil, his values are the direct opposite of Bush's.
I was a Hillary supporter, willing to forgive her Iraq vote, but then she started equivocating, and this was followed by her vote against the Levin amendment and for the Kyl/Lieberman amendment.
Is this what experience gave us?
February 14, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink