Dems Need to Go For Nash Equilibrium
Various delegate count analysts are showing that Obama made some gains in diminishing the gap between himself and delegate leader Hillary Clinton.
Matt Stoller writes that on a net basis, Obama may have added 45 net delegates more than Hillary Clinton did yesterday. Real Clear Politics has Hillary Clinton ahead overall now by just 15 delegates at 1121 over Obama's 1106.
In the upcoming near term races -- Maine (which takes place today), Virgninia, DC, and Maryland -- there are 272 delegates up for grabs.
Ben Smith has published an interesting roster showing the Obama campaign's own predictions on delegate distribution in these upcoming races -- and if the facts on the ground remain similar to the Obama campaign's expectations -- Hillary Clinton will pick up 93 delegates. Obama's crowd expects harvesting 99 in these races, leaving her still a smidgen ahead.
The two teams need to get their head around the fact that both candidates are exciting to huge swaths of the American public. Neither of them is perfect. They both have serious deficits in their portfolios that Republicans could exploit.
Nothing can stop the efforts of both campaigns at this point to try and win it all outright -- but reasonable analysis leads one to see that neither will win. And if one or the other wins via a seduction of super delegates, the fissure inside the party will be too big to ignore. They both need to be on the Democratic ticket. As much as neither wants to admit that, that is increasingly the reality of the current political situation.
Dems need to think about a Nash equilibrium solution -- and stop going for one or the other exclusively because it will harm the overall chances of surviving in the November general race. The Nash equilibrium in this case is putting both Clinton and Obama on the same ticket -- and getting both to stop denigrating the supporters of the other.
What super delegates may do is to tilt towards Clinton or Obama at the head of the ticket -- but the price they give for their support needs to be that one or the other will get the VP slot. And both of them should stop pretending that they wouldn't take it, including Hillary as VP.
A ticket with either Hillary or Barack Obama at the head of the ticket gets a check point in history. A ticket with both of them on it will probably be a record holder for a very long time.
-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note














I can see the value of having Obama on the ticket for Clinton, but it seems to me that Clinton's value to Obama is much less. If she is the VP, Obama suddenly has to deal with Clinton's shockingly high negatives and unfair treatment by the press.
Also, completely from my anecdotal experience in my social group, there is a large section of voters who would order their voting preferences Obama-McCain-Clinton, but very few who would preference Clinton but would choose McCain as their second choice.
You may be right Steve that this is the best option but it would be nice to see some hard data on this to prove it one way or another.
February 10, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
This comment sums up the rift.
Mr. Clemons' post presents a good solution for healing the rift in the Democratic party; a solution that would win the presidency, regardless of who was at the top of the ticket. And, this may in fact be, what ends up happening. The chances of it, better, if Barack Obama is the good Democrat I think he is.
The trouble: many of Obama's supporters, especially many of his internet savvy comment-meisters, would reject a ticket that looked too Democratic, any ticket that had Hillary on it, even if it was as Veep.
I think that Barack Obama would be an excellent president, I think I'll vote for him in the primary, what makes me worried is that the only permanent majority that Obama will build will be a majority of himself, not new and convinced Democrats. I think that a strong Democratic Party is a stalwart against tyranny. It is represented in the work of men and women like Russ Feingold and Tammy Baldwin, and Democrats across the country, people who march in rallies, volunteer in churches, arts groups and municipal issues.
I agree with Senator Obama that the things that unite us are bigger than a party, but I disagree with many of his supporters who think that the party is without value.
February 10, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
February 10, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I must respectfully disagree. Indeed, I have a blog on why Obama should be President, and Hillary should be the equivalent of "Prime Minister."
Here's the gist:
I think Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton need each other. For each to reach their greatest potential, they would do well to combine talents. I do not mean as "ticket." Because honestly I do not see either of these fine individuals doing well as Vice President. No, that would be demeaning to either of them. And somehow I do not think the chemistry would work... not because they would be unable to work together, but because each of them really does need and deserve a unique role and vantage point. Where each can excel. And where each can benefit the other.
In my view Hillary Clinton's mastery of knowledge, her legislative expertise and ability to speak the language of policy would equip her to be a superlative "Prime Minister." What if we elevate her to Senate Majority Leader and have her lead the fight for all the good legislation that will be needed for change to come? Why not recognize what half the Dems have already agreed by casting a vote for her? Yes, I understand they voted for her as a presidential candidate. But her debating skills have surely equipped her best for the Senate. Her rhetoric is surely the type that is needed in the Senate. And her long experience in government will surely help her pass the legislation we all want so much.
While Hillary Clinton would make the better "Prime Minister," I believe Barak Obama would make the better President. Less polarizing than Hillary and by far the more gifted and inspiring speaker, Obama would, in my view, be better able to unify the country and mobilize popular support for the legislation Hillary could most ably shepherd through the Congress. I'm viewing the Presidency as a means of gaining power/influence and making use of that. The president has the bully pulpit. But needs a legislative ally. The bully pulpit works to reach and inspire the citizens. Obama can do that. But as Hillary herself has made clear, inspiration is one thing and translation into legislation is another. Let him inspire. Let her legislate. To me it would make a perfect combination.
For the whole blog, click my name and look for:
Obama for President. Hillary for "Prime Minister"
or use this url:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/obama-for-president-hillary-fo.php
February 10, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
While A Beautiful Mind made the term "Nash Equilibrium" trendy, you could at least use it correctly, instead of using the complete opposite definition of it.
You're own link to Wikipedia makes this clear to anyone reading the first paragraph in that definition.
By everyone agreeing to a single solution (e.g. the dream ticket) that is the OPPOSITE to a Nash Equilibrium.
February 10, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely right. The Nash equilibrium is for both Clinton and Obama to go full steam ahead. Indeed, the concept helps us understand why this is exactly what they will both do.
Political note: if warmonger Clinton is on the ticket, even with Obama at the top, I'm voting Green.
February 10, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This kind of spinning thing makes me feel queasy. It will definitely cause me to pass by any comments you make.
It may have been a fine comment... but I didn't read it.
February 11, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. It ain't called NON-cooperative game theory for nothing.
A Nash equilibrium is an equilibrium of strategies within a game. It's not an agreement that ends the game.
One may as well say that the Heisenberg principle shows that there is a lot of uncertainty in politics.
This sort of faux intellectual sophistication is really quite disappointing to see on a site like this.
February 12, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary would never accept a VP spot. She's spent too long as VP already. Obama should reflect on how much the Clintons helped Al Gore. Bill would be Cheney. Who would Obama be in a Clinton adminstration? The Clintons would never allow themselves to be upstaged.
February 10, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign's leak of the delegate count spreadsheet was both a deft move to manage expectations, and a way of boosting his support among voters and superdelegates by showing that, even given the best case Clinton scenario, Obama has a strategy for victory. The whole point of the leak, in other words, was to shred the last remnants of the Clinton inevitability argument, and to attract supporters whose only psychological barrier to switching to Obama has been their desire to stay with the person they had up to now believed to be the eventual nominee.
But here's what the Obama people are too coy to mention in those official projections: The Clinton path to the nomination increasingly appears to require something like a version of the "Giuliani strategy". A Clinton victory requires her to sweep the late big state primaries following a string of Obama victories in February, and then rake in a substantial majority of the superdelegates. For that to happen, one must imagine that even after a month of losing and bad news, her current supporters in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania - which includes many people who have barely begun to think about their votes - will all stay on board.
Recall that Giuliani led in Florida polling for many months. But what happened to that support after a few weeks of failure in early primaries and caucuses? It evaporated. Now Obama already has a significant lead in pledged delegates. If Obama does indeed mount the string of February victories that began last night, the bandwagoning effect is going to be too strong for the Clinton campaign, and their big state electoral levee is going to break. Large numbers of voters in those late states will switch to the person who will increasingly appear to be the party's nominee. These voters are also going to be exposed to a month of media reports that Obama shapes up much better than Clinton in head-to-head matchups with McCain. And finally, pressure is going to begin to mount soon inside the party leadership to settle on a nominee to begin to fight back against a McCain campaign that has already begun, to make sure the nomination is not deferred absurdly until the convention in August, and especially to make sure that superdelegates don't controversially give the nomination to a candidate who trails in pledged delegates.
I see little value in the so-called "dream ticket" of Obama and Clinton or Clinton and Obama. Someone is going to win this nomination and someone is going to lose this nomination. If Obama is the nominee, I see no electoral benefit to putting Clinton on the ticket. It might satisfy some Democrats, but does absolutely nothing to help the ticket attract Independents or Republicans. Rather, Clinton's baggage, high negatives and established polling ceiling among the general public would weaken the nominee, be an anchor that the Democratic ticket has to drag around, and not help in securing the electoral votes of even a single state that the Democrats are not already poised to win.
February 10, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now this is good old common sense. But as Mark Twain said there is nothing less common than common sense and that has been generally the case with so much commentary on this contest.
February 10, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said, both.
February 10, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Nice reading of the Obama strategy, too. I was wondering why they weren't trying to position themselves as underdogs. Now I know.
February 11, 2008 2:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure dragging out the nomination hurts Democrats at all. The press loves it and it gets hours of air time for Democratic positions on the issues. For example, having two candidates debate the best way of achieving universal health care affirms the end goal.
February 10, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope everyone who reads Mr. Clemmons post will click through to the Ben Smith commentary and, when there, will open the Obama campaign's Excel spreadsheet, upon which Mr. Smith reports.
It seems that the Obama campaign has been prudently conservative in its projections.
While I don't suggest that after all is said and done one or the other of the candidates will have wrapped up the nomination, I think it quite possible for Obama to have more delegates than his campaign has projected. The campaign has projected a 2% victory in VA and 7% in MD and 4% to 7% losses in OH, TX, and PA.
Like everyone else, I'll just have to wait and see.
February 10, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve,
I appreciate you taking a big-picture view of the campaigns considering the drivel we get from our press and the stakes in this election. You’re right of course that they need to combine forces to ensure a Dem victory in November and both campaigns have been making nice lately towards that end. Until a nominee is decided though, the campaigns will fight for their own. I think some of the most vocal supporters on blogs and in the media will continue to attack the candidate they have decided is anathema to the country.
Do the media lead this subtle denigration of the candidates? Do the campaigns encourage supporters to attack the other? Absolutely, on the first and maybe at times on the second, but I think the electorate has once again fallen into the paradigm that the media promotes for our elections (horse-race, tempest in a teapot scandals, distorted quotes and sound-bite cardboard characterizations).
TPM is part of this game-playing; generally sustaining the caricature of HRC created by the MSM while at the same time criticizing the worst offenders like Tweety, Limbaugh, Fox News, etc. Look at the typical TPM front page today (2/10). Images lead in every media and here we have a great picture of a beaming, victorious Obama with the big banner- “Sweep…” Below that is a picture of a “calculating” Hillary next to a pleasant-looking Shuster who is now the victim because “Hillary [demands] Shuster Must Be Fired” (while, in fact, it is not clear as Josh claims that Hillary asked that he be fired).
There are positive stories of HRC to be found, too, but they are usually dominated by this kind of swipe. Edwards was treated worse when he got any press at all (ditto Kucinich, et al). For the most part, Obama is given a pass by the media. Criticisms are framed as strictly political or racist or sour grapes and brushed aside. I think the subtle demonization of a candidate over a long period does set in, in voters’ minds and will make it difficult for Clinton to either take a second spot to Obama or will lessen any mandate if she wins.
February 10, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I see it that way too. Even grimmer in fact.
The fix is in against Clinton everywhere you look. Including here at the TPM Cafe.
Hillary will NOT take the VP spot and in my opinion Should NOT offer Obama the VP spot if she gets the nomination.
If Obama gets the nomination he will surely lose to McCain in the general and that's what the plan was all along as far as the MSM at least is concerned.
It is ironic that for all the accusations against Hillary (She will do anything to win, she is mean, she is a bitch, she is a racist...etc) nobody has been able to show a shred of evidence to substantiate any of it.
Obama gets a pass on everything (for now).
As I said, the fix is in.
Only hope now is that she sweeps the big states and gets sufficient superdelegates to get her over the top.
I would not offer Obama the VP spot in that eventuality. He has not acted honorably in this campaign. He even boasts of his Chicago politics, while hinting at some mysterious reason why Hillary is not allowed to hit back.
sick really.
February 10, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that is the case please explain why Obama repeatedly does better against McCain in the polls.
February 10, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems it's far more often Hillary Supporters who are happy to denigrate Obama supporters.
They're rich.
They're young.
They have too much time on their hands.
They don't have a family.
I think HRC would make a very good VP, but I don't think she'd ever accept it.
February 10, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess if it comes to that, fine. But I don't feel any urgency to end this primary.
I think Democrats annointed John Kerry way too early, seeking unity for its own sake. Front loading the 2004 primaries on purpose was a huge mistake.
Without the buzz and favorable press that accrues to the winner of a real contest, Kerry got hardly any favorable press at all, from Super Tuesday through August. People got bored and quit paying attention.
And the sooner people quit paying attention, the better for Republicans. So I say cut a deal at the convention, if that's what it takes. Otherwise, just let the contest play itself out.
February 10, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
People have already dealt with Clinton's negatives. She actually overcame much of those within New York as well.
Odama's negatives were often hidden with facing canddiates such as Alan Keyes(R-looneybin).
The fact he had 37% negatives witrh almost name recognition in early evaluations indicates there's something beneath the hype that will shadow his political days for want of being addressed.
Thus, the more people find out Obama the more doubt they'll have. It's been a case of the opposite for Hillary.
February 11, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/02/10/virginia/
It seems there are many people who are not ready to vote for Obama and there are many people who are not ready to vote for Clinton. How many people are not going to vote for Clinton+Obama?
February 11, 2008 3:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
clinton would never position obama as VP in my opinion. I dont know about you but she was VP when her husband was in charge, there were too many stories about the power play between hillary and al gore after bill's presidency. she's not bush, she does not need cheney. her vp would be someone who would be willing to be a assistance to vp bill clinton.
February 11, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink