I'm hoping Obama's "surge" continues. I'm not predicting. But I"m hoping.

And if you did not get to read Deanie Mills's eloquent post yesterday about Obama's "Brief Shining Moment," I urge you to click on "all reader's posts" just below Recent Readers Posts. It's a long read. But it gives a sense of one person's travels from youthful activism to embracing renewal and hope with Obama. Deanie's Post is truly a "must read." It fell off the list yesterday at a time when it was nearly impossible for the recommend button to work or to post to the thread.

I'm impressed by how many posters yesterday used the word "Moment" to describe what is happening for Dems just now... particularly if you're an Obama supporter. Reminds me of a line from TS Eliot: "And every moment is a new and shocking Valuation of all we have been."

It's "The Moment." And it's beautiful! ♪♪♪

My prediction:

Obama wins: Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Deleware, Dems Abroad, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota

Clinton wins: Arkansas, Kansas, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah

Giving the winner a 55/45 split * of the available delegates would produce the following delegate split for Tuesday:

Obama 764

Clinton 709

(* which is not the actual system, but I'm not going to try make predictions at the Congressional District level)

The Audacity of My Commute

I woke early, in hopes of getting to the polls before work. A progression of household delays will force me to do so after work today. Still, I was in position to get to the office early enough to enjoy a cup of coffee before the rest of the organization gets in, and that seemed like a solid goal for me.

When I arrived to the subway station, a college student was at the top of the escalators handing out Obama literature and encouraging people to vote. I passed on the literature, stating that Barack already had my vote. The young man thanked me and I took the stairs down to the train stop.

That’s when I noticed something far out of the ordinary for my morning routine. My fellow commuters, who I see every morning and afternoon, were engaged in conversation with each other. Usually, this crowd of mixed age, race, gender and preference casually ignores each other. They stand or sit quietly. They bury their faces in books or newspapers. They close their eyes. Rarely do they interact. Today, they were discussing politics with their fellow strangers.

All of this was inspired by the young man at the top of the station encouraging votes for Obama. It appeared to me that a majority of my fellow commuters were receptive to that encouragement. People were shouting, “Yes We Can!” Others asked each other if they’d voted yet and if they knew where to do so.

I decided to interact as well, and try to get a feel for people’s thoughts and ideas. As I was considering who I would survey, a couple of young black men shouted over their iPod earphone volume at me. “Democrat?” I smiled and nodded. They both responded with a hearty Kool-Aid man impression.

As I took my seat on the train, I was stunned by how everyone was still interacting. They were folding up their Obama literature and saving it. I asked an elderly gentleman nearby what he thought of this phenomenon. He smiled a Cheshire grin and told me that it gave him hope.

Two well dressed white girls, likely students, sat near me, and didn’t seem interested in the political conversations occurring around them. I decided to ask them why. “We’re Hillary girls,” one responded to me. I had to ask why.

“Because she’s a woman,” the other said enthusiastically.

The two black men I’d encountered outside the train chimed in from several rows away, saying that they were voting for Obama, but not because he’s black. They wanted to know what issues the girls were choosing Clinton over Obama for. The girls responded they were choosing Clinton because they liked her husband.

This made me pause. At first the ladies made me think they were choosing Hillary because of strong feelings for the need for a woman, but ultimately their reason was anti-feminist, and because they liked her husband.

My new friends that I’d met outside the train weren’t done interjecting. “No more Clintons. We can’t have more of the same.”

I felt bad for the girls, as they sunk down sheepishly, in an obviously mostly Obama crowd. I decided to push the Obama crowd on the issues to see how they made their choice.

Interestingly enough, the people I may have incorrectly stereotyped by appearance for not being politically minded, seemed to be the most astute on the issues. One told me about a pledge to honor the constitution as President that Obama signed and Hillary refused. (I researched this when I got to the office, it’s true.) Several spoke about the war. A nice couple spoke about Obama’s work as a community organizer and how they believed it would benefit the nation to have a leader who worked on the streets like that. Everyone agreed that Barack’s warm personality made him extremely likable and gave them hope.

A stylish older black man with a cane, the sort of character you see on the train and wish you’d brought a sketch pad, grabbed me by the arm and smiled. “You see this? That man, (Obama) has inspired all these people to get active in politics. I haven’t seen anything like this since the civil rights movement. You say you’re a writer. You write about this today.”

And so I did.

I can’t wait to cast my vote for Obama today. He at one point was my third choice, behind Kucinich and Paul. Now I’m excited to support him. THAT is the audacity of hope.

Andrew, you wrote "Since elections don't have anything to do with how many votes or delegates you win and everything to do with whether or not you under or over-perform expectations..."

Minor quibble. I hear you, Andrew. But on this day, with this many delegates at stake, these elections have a lot to do with how many delegates the candidates win. Exceeding or falling short of expectations can be crucial--if you're still in the race. And based on what we've been hearing that seems likely once they've counted the delegates chosen today. As I say, minor quibble.

Thanks for all the hard work you're doing. I hope that while noting the problems, which Andrew and company need to know obviously, a few of our fellow denizens will try harder to be polite about it and remember to show appreciation. Many are being polite, gracious, and patient now.

I tried to blog it, but it wouldn't let me. My apologies to Andrew for adding it to his thread, I was just eager to share with my fellow TPM junkies.

I voted this morning on line in the Democrats Abroad primary election.

Apparently a number of delegates have been apportioned to those of us who live abroad.

chautauquan

That was brilliant, I just put it on facebook.

Oh, ok, humor...arg, arg, arg (for those not yet antique as I am, reference is to old Robin Williams TV series "Mork and Mindy"). :

What channel is Super Tuesday on?

Andrew, for those of us not in Super Tuesday states (May 20th for Oregon), you're absolutely correct, even if you were being sarcastic. Elections have nothing whatsoever to do with voters, positions, or likability. It has everything to do with fulfilling expectations.

If Obama is the runaway, then what's the point for those of us in later states to even bother voting for a different candidate, or even showing up at all ? (Although, Oregonians don't need to show up to polls, we're 100% vote-by-mail). Who wants to pick a loser, anyway? It's just not American, unless one wants to be that "I still voted for Mr Obscure" person.

And if there isn't a clear favorite / winner? Well, wouldn't the Obama camp just claim that they smashed Ms Clinton's inevitability mantle?

It's all about perception, all about expectations for those of us outside of today's voting bloc.

WE LET THE MEDIA STEER US INTO THE BUSH PRESIDENCY........WE LET THE MEDIA GET US INTO A WAR WE SHOULDNT HAVE EVEN THOUGHT OF BEING IN.........NOW THE MEDIA IS TRYING TO SHOVE A CANDITATE DOWN OUR THROATS WHO IS A SENATOR FOR 3 YEARS ........WHO IS A CON ARTIST WHOS TALKS BEAUTIFUL BUT SAYS NOTHING.......ARE WE ALL IDIOTS ????????

Zumper, I don't think we're idiots. But I also think some people don't work very hard at this election business. Obama is the current rock star of politics and he has attracted a very good following of groupies. People like being on the bandwagon and I suspect a lot of people have decided it is better to go along for a fun ride rather than stand up and fight for Mrs. Clinton.

The curious thing to me is how Obama has managed to get every single media person on his side. (Or, at least, not criticize him.) In the end, that may have been his biggest accomplishment.

No matter. tnathan is right. We need to relax. I have accepted that Mrs. Clinton is going to get hammered badly today and that the media is going to have a wonderful time kicking her all over the lot. Champagne and party favors for everybody!

Meanwhile, we have soldiers dying daily in Iraq, housing is spiraling out of control and unemployment is creeping up again. Hopefully, Obama (or perhaps Oprah) will have some answers for those issues.