One thing to look for in the results tonight is which Democrat carries the Ground Zero belt. By that, I don’t mean the southern Manhattan district where the Twin Towers once stood, but the congressional districts in the outer boroughs and suburban New Jersey and Connecticut that were most directly affected by the attacks of September 11.

These districts – especially in New Jersey and Connecticut – contain huge pockets of Democratic voters and could determine who wins these important states. And they’re important not just in delegate count (New Jersey has the third-highest total), but also in symbolism: if Hillary Clinton can’t carry her state’s largest media market, then big questions about her viability will be asked.

But these CD’s are particularly interesting because it’s these districts that could give us a clue as to how the terrorism issue will cut, and security voters will vote, come November.

These are some of the districts that saw the largest jumps in Republican presidential performance between 2000 and 2004. In Congressman Anthony Weiner's district in Brooklyn and Queens, a 37-point Gore win became just a 12-point Kerry victory, and Kerry lost 10 points from Gore's vote share even in Congressman Jerry Nadler's ultra-liberal Manhattan district. Overall, Kerry lost more than 250,000 votes from Gore's total in Kings (Brooklyn), Queens, Nassau, and Suffolk counties. These counties comprise four of the five counties with the biggest Republican gains in terms of raw votes, and they were the counties most affected by the attacks of September 11. To add to that, as Robert Sullivan pointed out in his analysis over at Commonwealth magazine, Staten Island flipped from 57 percent for Gore to a 50 percent win for Bush.

What moved these voters wasn’t Bush’s embrace of the evangelical agenda, but his perceived toughness on the war on terror and fitness to be a Commander-in-Chief during perilous times. We know from the polling that the mood of the country has changed significantly from 2004, especially on security matters. But what about with these voters? Arguably, they are the Democrats and independents who will be most open to a McCain candidacy. So, if they vote for Clinton, who is making the toughness, resolute leader argument, then we can assume – and it’s a bit of a stretch, I admit – that they are poachable in the fall. If not and these districts go for Obama, then perhaps it’s a sign that 9/11 has faded as a salient issue where it is felt the most, and that all the talk about McCain playing on Democratic turf is just that – talk.