So how might McCain fare against HRC or Obama on what voters tell us is their #1 issue: the economy?

I think he's a got a problem...a big one.

What comes to mind when you think about McCain's economic program...how about health care...middle-class squeeze...housing meltdown? Nothing much, right?

In fact, he apparently has said a) he's not much on matters economic--more of a foreign policy guy (more on that below), and b) he's going to change that and get serious about economic policy in the next few weeks. That's not an enviable position to be in, but it gets worse.

My take on his record is that of a deficit hawk. He opposed the Bush tax cuts because they weren't offset by spending cuts. But he's waffled on that for the campaign and that's hurt his rep as a straight-talker.

Let's assume he stays with this new found love of the Bush tax cuts for the general election. It's a stark difference with either D candidate, both of whom are for letting them expire, at least among the wealthy. It's also a policy that explicitly ties McCain to Bushonomics, and unless there's a large and very unexpected turnaround in our economy by the late summer, this is not a recipe for success with voters outside of the top one or two percent of the income scale.

The other thing to recognize here is that McCain really does want to cut spending, and if he sticks with permanent Bush tax cuts, the need to cut entitlements becomes that much more urgent. Of late, he's been going around saying he's going to whack the hell out of earmarks and pork, but that's tiny potatoes compared to the fiscal challenges the next president will face. His target is the entitlement programs: Social Security and Medicare.

And you can bet John McCain--who said he'd stay the course in Iraq for 100 years if that's what it will take--wants to seriously pump up military spending.

In short, what you end up with is a platform of extended war, massive entitlement cuts, and not much else. You also have the tie-in to Bushonomics in what may well be a recession-election that would hurt any member of the president's party, even one who liked economic policy.

On the other side, both HRC and Obama have, for their whole campaigns, been speaking directly to the economic anxiety that appears to be ever more pervasive across the land. Their health care plans are precisely targeted to address a core concern of majorities, and they will continue to work hard to distance themselves from Bush-era policies. As noted, they want to reverse his high-end tax cuts, and claim to be committed to reconnected growth and broadly shared prosperity.

We can certainly quibble about their plans (mandates vs. no mandates), their commitment (is HRC really the populist), their budget numbers.

But on the economy, the way things look tonight, the D's appear to have a huge advantage in the general election.