The State of The Stimulus: A Modest Proposal
Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a $146 billion economic stimulus package worked out by House and administration negotiators. At the heart of the package is a tax rebate that would provide checks of up to $600 for individuals and $1,200 for families. The rebate would be available to taxpayers earning over $3,000 in wages and would be phased out for individuals earning over $75,000 and families earning over $150,000. The price tag for the tax rebate would be just under $100 billion.
But the Senate has different ideas. The Senate Finance Committee will meet today to debate and vote on a plan that provides a somewhat smaller tax rebate – $500 and $1,000 to individuals and families, respectively, who earn at least $3,000 but treats Social Security retirement benefits as taxable wages, meaning that no- or low-income seniors would also qualify. The Senate tax rebate plan removes the cap found in the House-administration plan and costs roughly $120 billion.
There are many other differences between the two proposals, but the key differences in terms of equity and efficacy of the stimulus package relate to the plans' divergent provisions regarding the $3,000 wage floor and the $75,000/$150,000 ceiling. A compromise between these plans, one that would eliminate the floor and restore the ceiling, would provide more cash to those who need the rebate most, provide greater stimulus to the economy, and would save money in the process.
As President George W. Bush said in his State of the Union speech on Monday, "At kitchen tables across our country, there is a concern about our economic future … we can all see that that growth is slowing." Whether we are headed for an economic recession or a severe slowdown, consumer confidence in the U.S. has collapsed in the last six months, as the Conference Board reported today.
Consumer purchases contribute enormously to the economy. According to government figures, they are responsible for about two-thirds of total gross domestic product (GDP)
Experience shows that a stimulus plan works, if it works at all, to the extent that it quickly gets cash into the hands of those who are most likely to spend it immediately. There are many ways to do this. A study by Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com shows that while certain spending increases (increasing unemployment benefits or food stamp assistance, for example) are the most effective stimulus tools, a lump-sum tax rebate is reasonably effective; tax cuts for individuals and tax breaks for business are the least effective.
But not all lump-sum tax rebates are equal. On Jan. 17, Federal Reserve Bank Chair Ben Bernanke told Congress:
If you're somebody who has lots of financial assets and you receive an extra dollar, you may not change your spending much because you can simply either put the dollar in your bank account or take out a dollar as you need it …. If you're somebody who lives paycheck to paycheck, you're more likely to spend that extra dollar.
So there is more "bang for the buck" for stimulus purposes from cash infusions going to low- and moderate-income individuals than from wealthy ones. The bigger the rebate and the higher up the income scale its recipients, the weaker the stimulative effect on the economy. For better or worse, rebates saved or invested do practically nothing to stimulate consumer spending in the short-run.
This is where the proposal to eliminate the floor and restore the ceiling in the stimulus package tax rebates comes in. This proposal would improve the House and Senate versions in three ways:
* Efficiency: it would move more cash quickly into the hands of those who would spend it quickly: the $3,000 floor serves only to limit consumer spending in an arbitrary way; similarly, providing rebates to the well-off does little to stimulate spending
* Equity: it would make the package more equitable, providing additional resources to those in greatest need while reducing benefits to those of abundant means
* Responsibility: such a stimulus package – with a ceiling but without a floor – would add less to the deficit than the reverse, a package without a ceiling but with a floor. How? Because the cost of eliminating the $3,000 floor – about $5.5 billion – is roughly $1 billion less than the cost a rebate for individuals earning over $75,000 and families earning over $150,000 – about $6.5 billion.
The proposal has strong support in key quarters. Today, deficit hawk Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) called the idea of removing the ceiling “absurd … That’s as if common sense has left the building.” And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has already promised to add income caps to the bill if it reaches the Senate floor without them. “[It] causes me to want to gag … I don’t think Warren Buffett should have a rebate,” Reid said. No one defends the notion of depriving those earning under $3,000 of a rebate.
Most importantly, making these changes would be easy. They are simple to understand and to implement. "Time is of the essence," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce last week. The Senate can and should act quickly to make these changes, Congress should enact them, and the president should sign them without delay so the stimulus package can have optimal effect: efficient, equitable, responsible, and timely.













I'll tell you this: $300 means nothing to me. Not because it isn't a good chunk of money compared to my salary, it is, but it's not going to do anything to improve my financial situation in the long run. Not if I save it, not if I pay down debt with it, not if I spend it on an HDTV. It will not make a difference. And I'm so annoyed that the government can get all riled up about trying to trick me into going out to dinner a few times but that it doesn't care at all about people's personal balance sheets which are overburdened with debt. And that debt did not come from lavish living for most. It came from years of stagnant wages and rising consumer goods prices. It is the government's fault, basically.
This $300 hand out is an insult. Maybe we should all spend the money. Overseas, via the internet. But $300 of some foreign good, directly from a foreign country.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
January 30, 2008 7:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
How nice for you thinking of yourself.
For many in this country, $300.00 will buy medication or food or help pay inflated rent.
Sometimes, when I read posts like yours, I secretly pray for a severe recession or even a depression. This would make selfish people much more appreciative of what they have rather than being discussed about an economy they helped to create.
January 30, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
How nice for you thinking of yourself.
A retired widow owns a modest 2-bedroom ranch house; her only other assets are $160k invested in a money market account. Her income last year was about $13,000 in Social Security and $8,000 in interest.
This year with interest rates being forced down, she'll get a couple percentage points more in SS but $3200 less in interest. And since she doesn't earn wages, she won't get the windfall.
And who is benefiting from her sacrifice? First, the banks -- borrow short at cheap rates and lend long at high rates. And second, all those speculators and raving optimists who signed up for ARMs they couldn't ever expect to pay for. With low interest rates the indexes that the ARMs reset against will be a couple of points lower and the reset rate just that much lower.
She's upset about her 15% reduction in income. What a selfish . . . . !
January 30, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
It appears the IRS is not geared up to get these rebates out in the next 60-90 days. I guess everyone forgot that every January through May their resources are tied up with handling tax returns.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/washington/25irs.html?scp=7&sq=rebate&st=nyt
January 30, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's that important the government can just push back the filing date to the extension date in June.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
January 30, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink