Always Wrong
The White House's belated effort to join the stimulus debate reveals again that on every issue this Administration buries itself in the past, attends to its favorite special interests, and misses the chance to build a more productive economy.
And the media obscure the key political issues by treating the economy as some tricky machine that experts need to fix. What's tricky is how this Administration wants to direct much of the stimulus away from the most needy people and most necessary projects for the whole country.
We need an immediate jolt of spending in America, and we also need to use the downturn to galvanize a commitment to long-term and continual investment in non-carbon energy and the public goods of communication, transportation, and parkland.
The first necessity of an economic stimulus is of course to get money into the hands of those who will immediately spend it.
One way is to wire money to state and local authorities on the condition that they let contracts to build roads, bridges, and public facilities within 90 days. Just letting the contracts will help stimulate the economy, in particular in the construction trades that are suffering. The Administration doesn't believe in bolstering the crumbling infrastructure with federal funds, so they disfavor this approach.
Another way to get money spent is to send checks to income tax payers. However, the bottom 40% of people on the income ladder aren't by any means all tax payers, so this technique won't get them any money. They need relief on wage taxes. The Administration doesn't favor this approach, because those on the bottom don't get attention from this White House -- even when they are the most likely to spend money sent their way.
A poor idea is to give generally to all businesses greater investment tax breaks -- at least if the goal is immediate spending. Firms that aren't making profits don't need tax breaks. Firms that have too much capacity won't invest more until demand conditions firm up, which would happen if consumers spent more, so that they would actually benefit from the measures above. Not surprisingly, this Administration favors this approach. Every moment of suffering for millions is an opportunity to benefit a few thousands!
What's sad and not surprising is that the immediate reaction of the media is not to say of the White House, there they go again.
And then there's the question of amount. What should happen is not just an immediate injection of spending of about one percent of GDP, or, say, $150 billion. Also, the government should spend over the next 24 months about two to four percent of GDP on the American infrastructure. Among other things, cable and telephone companies should be given a subsidy of $100 for each household they add as a broadband subscriber for the next two years. This is the sort of program the FCC should ask for the authority to implement.
Indeed, there also should be investment credits, but they should be all directed at new green energy projects -- and they should be binding, ten year credits that would stimulate commitments of money and time for the long term. Short term investment credits are an oxymoron: investment should be for the long run. Of course the Administration doesn't think this way either.
Moreover, electric utilities ought to be assured $200 billion in subsidies for providing electricity from non-carbon sources. The stimulus for a conversion from carbon ought to be both for new projects and also directed to the key electricity producers that now exist, the regulated utilities of America. This is what FERC should do, instead of its ineffective efforts to introduce competition in a half-hearted way.
The downturn threatens to be severe and long-lasting. It is an opportunity to take actions long overdue across a broad range of topics that generally describe the shabby, degraded American infrastructure, where such public goods as energy, transportation, and communication all need to be provided anew on very different technological bases. That's what candidates should insist on, Congress should legislate and the President should be forced by public opinion to execute. Right now the topics aren't even being discussed broadly or wisely.











Comments (31)
For something that sounds like a no-brainer, our brainless administration hasn't figured it out. Why do they do EVERYTHING wrong? Why is their every motivation based on greed rather than the good of our country? How did they get away with all this?
Can you imagine if they win in 2008? I am sick!
Jan
January 19, 2008 5:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why do they do EVERYTHING wrong?
I thought we had agreed on this.
In their "I"s they do everything right: "It is their plan"-jmm
-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking
January 19, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remind me, do we still have a Congress?
January 19, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, but only if you consider Reed and Pelosi fine examples of courageous, visionary leadership.
January 20, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bull. 'The government' can't well account for probably half of its' spending, and it's been that way for years. Start with a spending STOPPAGE, and drastically improved federal book keeping practices, to include healthscare and defense, two of the biggest scams that ever were.
Stop selling us down the river, here, and fix the fiscal incompetence that allows deficit spending to stand to begin with. That's the one and only 'contract' you should be concerned about, the one that gets some gods-honest-truth reform started in that whole ugly fiscal mess.
Anything else, give it a thumbs-down and stop trying to pan-handle the public to cover over for systemic dysfunction. 10 dollars take away 52 dollars equals NO SALE.
January 19, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
That idea fits right into the Bush plans. Follow that reasoning and the recession can soon become a depression - but with a Democrat in office to blame it on.
Hoppy in Sacramento
January 19, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right, Hoppy. Rove's life's work, according to him, is to destroy the Democratic party. What better way than to hand it an economic depression and another Vietnam.
January 19, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any money allocated to "projects" will get stalled, diverted or otherwise misdirected. Letting contracts won't get it flowing either. At best there will be a portion allocated up front with the rest paid as goals are reached. This is years not months.
Rescinding the payroll tax for awhile will put money into the pocket of anybody who works on the books. There will be no need to send out checks, no playing with the timing of the checks to influence the elections, and no included letters about how the GOP is helping the poor working folks.
Another immediate step would be to allocate money to states in proportion to the loss in revenue from a decline in sales tax receipts. There could be a proviso that money had to be used for the same purposes as the missing tax revenue. This would keep vital services from being cut as well as keeping many civil servants on the job. The payment could be restricted to the total over 2008 so budgets could be calculated properly.
The way to fight poverty is by giving the poor more money. This is true of individuals and local government.
These payments may not "solve" the recession, but it will ease the pain of those who are suffering while things get resolved. Once the banks have written down their speculations and the economy has readjusted to higher commodity prices (either through improved efficiency or reduced consumption) things will right themselves. The recovery may not be at the level of before, but that's what happens when you eat your seed corn.
--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape
January 19, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's face it. The Bush Ad. has consistently acted in direct opposition to what is best for the American people, for this country and for the world.
Is it power gone berserk? Is it some sort of retaliation to satisfy imagined injustices, slights, denegrations? An opportunity to 'get even?' (The brutality inflicted at Gitmo and elsewhere, in their name, would certainly indicate a need to inflict pain on others.)
Seems far-fetched but I have read that Hitler's hatred of the Jews stemmed from when he was a rising politician the intelligensia and the very rich publically ridiculed him, called him a sorry little loser spouting drivel. Unfortunately for them, their ranks included many Jews.
People don't cease being people whether they're sitting on a throne or in an Oval Office.
January 19, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
re: However, the bottom 40% of people on the income ladder aren't by any means all tax payers, so this technique won't get them any money.
Huh? It's my understanding that they are talking about sending out $800 to every person who filed an income tax return last year, regardless of whether they had to send a check with it or got a refund. Assuming we are talking about adults, that's a lot more than 60% of the population! To be sure there are other worthwhile things that could be done, but if you want very quick shot in the arm that sounsds like the most effective thing to do: send money directly to the people, rather than filtering it through state government, contractors etc.
January 19, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wavering about what to do with my $800--buy some Euros, stock up on cheap stuff made in China, or give it to a friend to stash away in an account in the Carribean.
###
This piece of stimulus will help people out, but even Americans who are completely uninterested in monetary policy will know that it's a callus attempt to buy their vote, cheap.
January 20, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Spending more money we don't have will only accelerate the dollar's decline. Has anyone noticed we don't have a candidate in this race with a plan to pay down the $9 trillion debt we have and the $ 50 trillion future obligations of the federal government. America may be headed for an inevitable conclusion we continue to ignore every election season.
January 19, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Must agree on the quesion of Yet More Debt being helpful...
What about techniques that could build actual wealth by encouraging us all (workers, and management and capitalists alike) to build what we need instead of always buying it?
Imagine the idea of a "stimulus" that offsets the differential between work done here vs work done elsewhere. A temporary boost to restore our productivity and competitiveness...
I must emphasize temporary, though. We must learn to compete with the whole market, even where the competition is "vigorous". Creativity and hard work should be valued as the contributions to the economy that they are.
January 19, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone noticed we don't have a candidate in this race with a plan to pay down the $9 trillion debt we have and the $ 50 trillion future obligations of the federal government.
Ron Paul wants us to dramatically cut our overseas spending and to use the money to keep Medicare and Social Security running for those already in the system while encouraging people to get out of the system. He also wants to dramatically reduce federal regulation, cut out several useless federal departments, and stop spending so much money on the drug war. He doesn't have a magic bullet to pay everything off at once, but he's the one candidate who wants to put us in the right direction.
"You say I'm a dreamer. We're two of a kind. Looking for some perfect world that we both know that we'll never find." - Thompson Twins, "Hold Me Now"
January 19, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The first necessity of an economic stimulus is of course to get money into the hands of those who will immediately spend it.
Translation: the economy is bad, so we need to consume more. Bullshit. This is like trying to solve pollution by burning MORE fossil fuels. What we need is to save more money and to allow a recession, as painful as it may be, to wipe out the malinvestment in the economy. When you lose your job, the way to improve your financial situation is not to consume more. We need to consume less and invest more.
A poor idea is to give generally to all businesses greater investment tax breaks -- at least if the goal is immediate spending. Firms that aren't making profits don't need tax breaks. Firms that have too much capacity won't invest more until demand conditions firm up, which would happen if consumers spent more, so that they would actually benefit from the measures above.
On some level you are correct. Increasing investment without increasing savings will create an unsustainable boom. On the other hand. your argument is specious. Investment gives people jobs, which will increase consumer demand. Plus, the idea that companies won't invest until they are profitable suggests that they are very short-term thinkers. Obviously, you make investments that are not profitable now with the hope that they will be profitable later.
My preferred economic stimulus package would be for us to get out of Iraq, and then to use that money to pay down our debts, freeing up investment capital for the private sector to use.
"You say I'm a dreamer. We're two of a kind. Looking for some perfect world that we both know that we'll never find." - Thompson Twins, "Hold Me Now"
January 19, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The first thing out of my mouth when I heard about giving this money to taxpayers was is this going to be a repeat of his last giveaway which turned out to be nothing more than an advance on the next tax filing's refund. After that, my selfish gene kicked in and I thought of the fact that I have no taxable income this year and would likely not even file a return, therefore I wouldn't be eligible for anything. As far as I know, I, like many other responsible non taxpayers, spend money, and spend it on food, clothes, and other necessities. In fact, the low level of the funds we have available to us make it more likely that we quickly spend the money than someone with more income. Carrying that a little further, what incentive is it to the high income earner to get a rebate or check of $800 from the government? Perhaps there should be an upper limit to the income where the additional government check is cut off. Failing to allow for us to get some of this cash is cutting out a significant part of the population from the effort to stimulate the economy away from this impending recession.
January 19, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, politicians are always better at the illusion of action than real action that gets results. (The Kyoto Treaty anyone?) What's so surprising is we, the voting public, continue to buy these slick snake oil remedies over and over.
January 20, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, this should be the starting point. The problem is not that sound economic options are hard to find or even debatable (though I think infrastructure and other projects are more long term and invite abuse if rushed into). If anything, seven years of this administration is proof negative of what policies do not work. The problem is that the administration is not interested in them. The real problem is that this administration has been running the country and that is what must be changed to deliver reform. The philosophy guiding conservatives is antithetical to New Dealist government intervention into the sacred marketplace. There is no debating or compromising with them on stimulus packages because they can only see government expenditures in terms of giving back to the elite what is theirs (handouts to corporations and the rich- you know, real Americans).
This is where I would expect Congress to stand up. Seriously, if ever Congress needed to show they aren’t completely whipped, preventing the country from sliding into a severe recession is it. This is where they should be telling the President, who is more of a dead duck politically than a lame duck, that it is his policies that have created this mess and he’ll have no say in furthering the disaster. If he wants to pull out of this looming recession, he needs to sign the measures the congress enacts (an immediate stimulus to lower income and middle class who’ll immediately spend it, bury the tax cuts for the rich, close corporate loopholes, reorganize financial regulations, or whatever). I just don't think it is a problem of economic strategies as much as fundamental philosophy.
Congress has failed to stand up to Bush on everything from the war to torture to illegal spying and all the other FP national security issues. It failed to stand up to a seizing of power for the executive, packing agencies with industry hacks, and packing of the courts with activist ideologues. It failed to control the compassionate conservatives from rolling over them on everything from bankruptcy for the working poor to drugs for seniors to health care for kids. Bush has absolutely no authority anymore. To stand up, all Congress need do is stand up.
January 19, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This recession is almost exclusively brought on by sustained high energy prices that have pushed up the price of everything we buy, especially food.
Congress did stand up to Bush on this issue -- against the middle class, by shutting down any drilling in ANWR and a lot of other places. It is absolutely crazy for this nation to have over 100 billion barrels of known reserves and not drill for any of it. We've got even more natural gas. Democrats are going to get hammered this spring when gas goes to $ 4 a gallon. Their energy policy is the most unbalanced non-sensical mess I've ever seen, and I blame Reed and Pelosi for this. I have no confidence in either of them to lead this nation. I wasn't that big of a Daschle fan, but he was a lot better Senate leader than Reed. We don't just need a change in the White House -- we need one in the Senate too. Reed has failed to lead, and he needs to be defrocked.
January 20, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's Harry Reid, not Reed. We're desperate, I guess, since we're looking to Congress to lead. Usually the executive's job, but you know how that is working out.
Could spending the better part of a trillion dollars for nothing in Iraq have any bearing on the recession?
Sure, it's crazy not to use up the last of our national oil. Let's hurry up and spend the last of our natural-resource capital. When we're out of oil we'll be back to buying it for the resins needed to make our wind turbine blades.
And while we chase the diminishing resource others will have moved on to owning the means of energy production, sun, and we'll be doing the equivalent of shoveling coal into our boilers. We could have been seven years farther down the road to independence, but the oil-centric policy of Cheney et al has us in dire straits.
Sorry about the snarky tone, but I just can't take oil talk seriously anymore. It assumes the world will conveniently cooperate and keep pace with us while we rush toward the cliff of depletion. Of course, it will not, and the longer we delay getting a jump on escaping from oil dependence the worse the turnaround pain will be.
1,000 times the entire world's energy demand. That is the solar flux. Free for the taking. Then there is that nasty stuff you have to shoot your way to accessing, and which leaves behind nasty messes, and which is getting harder to find.
January 20, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think we touched on this before, and I contend alternatives are going to take more time to develop. The entire corn harvest last year would only produce a fraction of ethanol vs. our annual oil consumption. China has invested heavily in wind and solar, but they keep going back to coal, because those aren't going to produce enough to meet demand.
Like it or not, increasing domestic oil production for the next decade should be a part of the plan, as well as building a few more state-of-the art refineries that can process other types of fuel as well. No one really wants to drill in certain protected places, but harsh reality intrudes in all of our personal lives, and we are forced to make practical decisions. The same applies as a nation. Prudhoe Bay has insulated the US from price shocks since the 70's, but it's not enough anymore.
January 20, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Alternatives will take time if it is left to chance. Corn is a stopgap, a transition, of course, but your numbers aren't right. Read last month's Scientific American. An article in it details a plan for the switch to solar. The solar input-to-demand ration is put this way---40 minutes of sunlight equals one year of humanity's energy use.
China is using coal for the same reason we do--it's convenient and easy. But is it wise? Of course not.
All you are offering is domestic mining of a diminishing resource way too valuable to burn as your best answer. Keep trying, I won't settle for that.
But I don't want to shoulder the burden of stimulating the new markets alone. If I set up my own production system (sun/wind/battery) at new-product costs, and you come along later and buy the cheaper mature version, I'm a chump. That is why we need national programs.
You seem unlikely to be interested in that approach. I am not interested in yours. We'll see whose gets developed after November.
January 20, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
no, we actually agree here -- we need a national plan, but i'm saying increased production (especially of nat gas) is going to have to be included, and aggressive clean coal technology. A mix of these with newer renewable should be a good balance, until you get a viable alternative to gasoline like hydrogen (which also has drawbacks). That alternative is most likely at least 10 years off, so we've got to stop wringing our hands right now and make some tough decisions.
January 20, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
DRILL, DRILL, DRILL.
How about;
Conserve, conserve, conserve?
We cannot drill ourselves to oil independence, there isn't enough oil
in the ground we control.
January 20, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's crazy is our nation fighting two useless wars and pissing away all the oil a modern war machine devours. Not to mention the chaos our endless aggression in the middle east has on oil production and market jitters. Did any of that enter into your thinking or do you think high oil & gas prices are simply and entirely the result of Eco-friendly Democrats? Spare me the "drill" argument, it's as hallow as the "tax cuts to save the economy" argument. You can't have it both ways I'm sorry to say. You want cheaper oil, stop F-ing around with the middle east and wasting it in idiotic wars. Stop letting the automotive industry dictate fuel economy for cars & trucks. Promote more public transportation in our large & growing urban areas. You see there are many ways to approach dealing with our oil problem other than drill drill drill. Unless of course you don't want to deal with the problem at all, you just want a few rich people to get richer and let the problem get even bigger before you hand it over to the Democrats to try & fix once it far too late to do anything about.
I for one will not fall for that age old tradition of Republicans trashing this nation for their own personal gain and then blaming it on the Democrats when they hand them the smoldering wreckage left in the aftermath of greed. I've heard it before and it doesn't wash. So take that misplaced scorn you have for Reid and try putting it where it belongs - on the Republicans & neocons that have been screwing things up in such historically epic ways for years now.
Oh & if you think this recession is "almost exclusively" because of high energy prices you are being overly simplistic. There are many variables involved, not the least of which has been deregulation madness which allowed people who should have known better to play fast & loose for far too long. And in some cases to play illegally. It's not just high energy prices.
January 20, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton/Gore presided over the SUV revolution, in case you forgot, Boo. They also pushed natural gas without increasing production to meet the demand, which is why your heating bills are higher this winter. There is plenty of blame to go around here. Both parties have failed to lead since the 70's embargo, and I am tired of the Reid's in Congress blaming the other side. If he can't get a good energy bill (not the one they just passed), he needs to let someone else have a shot.
January 20, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's certainly a major factor but exclusively? War spending, deficit spending and unproductive tax cuts, shaky financial markets and collapse of the housing bubble, exporting of jobs and general malfunctioning of government oversight may be factors, too. I wouldn’t disagree that regime change on the Hill is warranted, but not because of high oil prices. I mean, telecom immunity, spying on Americans, failure to pass progressive programs are all good reasons to regret Pelosi and Reid but not allowing Big Oil to tear up more national reserves?
That is absolutely crazy. Other than in the Alaskan Nt. Wildlife Refuge, which is still being pursued, congress hasn’t blocked Bush/Cheney energy programs. They’re still drilling like crazy down here off the South Texas Coast, but they may succeed in killing a massive wind farm. If you want to see what known oil reserves are being protected look at a map of off-shore wells in the Gulf of Mexico. It seems Florida doesn’t want those dirty oil platforms along their beautiful coast and they have had more than a little clout in the WH (not that I’m advocating more drilling there).
It’s also not in the financial interest of Big Oil to seek new sources that will bring prices down. I don’t see Exxon doing too poorly, and I believe I read that they invest less than 5% in new production. Anyway, what has changed in the last five years or so to drive up gas prices?
The thing that drives up oil prices in the near term are instability and worry in the markets brought on by little things like endless war in the M.E., especially crippling one of the largest oil producing countries. And then there is an administration that abets energy companies in price-gouging like that of Enron holding Cali. hostage in summer 2001 or the oil cos. after Katrina. You can blame many things on this neutered congress but I don't think they (or protecting ANWR) are responsible for this recession.
January 20, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a retired businessman who turned the comany over to my three sons in 1990. My wife is a retired school teacher. We both collect pensions and Social Security.
While we're not in the Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Bush family members or Dick Cheney class, we do have financial security.
What would I do with a tax cut that I'm not doing already?
One of the most difficult things my wife and I have to do is trying to find something to buy for each other at Christmas, because during the year when we need or want something, we buy it.
We have direct deposit for our SS and pension checks and we often get overloaded in that account so we shift some to the market.
We don't need a tax cut so we can "spend" or "invest", which, as I said, we're already doing.
So, give my share of the tax cut to someone who "needs" it, one who is struggling to get by.
January 20, 2008 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
John, if you're looking for volunteers for a handout, there will be plenty of hands raised. Just say the word.
January 20, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Needy" only apply.
January 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's my ex-wife's motto.
January 20, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink