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With about 40% of precincts reporting, McCain has won and the Dems are too close to call.
As Josh PERMALINK | RECOMMEND THIS
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With about 40% of precincts reporting, McCain has won and the Dems are too close to call.
As Josh PERMALINK | RECOMMEND THIS
Comments (139)
I'm not sure but I think Triangle Man beats Particle Man. And the average Person man doesn't vote.
Obama's going to win the Democratic nomination. Hillary's self-immolated and the emotional approach is too late, too contrived and unlikely to convince people she really does empathize other than to win and obtain control. When you have to convince everyone you really, really do care about the country, it sounds like you've already lost.
If I were a Democrat, I'd vote for Obama.
If I were a Republican, I'd vote for Huckabee.
Since I'm neither, I don't really have a candidate. A large number of the most qualified people are qualified in part because they do not want power and aren't geared toward clawing for it.
January 8, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really see how Obama wins the nomination. His main demographic is the under 40 crowd particularly college age or recent grads. And while I'm very excited to see he has gotten record numbers of them active, and this bodes very well to the longterm social direction of the country, I don't see that group as whole coming out even with portions very hot and bothered in the number of the over 40's and particular the very reliable over 65s.
If you look at the CNN Iowa and NH exit and entrance polls you see they pulled the same demographics each primary, but Clinton pulled more of hers in NH, which matches the traditional patterns nationally.
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
"His main demographic is the under 40 crowd particularly college age or recent grads. "
Not true. He does especially well among them, and with educated Democratic professionals, but does well with all demographics and breaks about even with Hillary across the spectrum. The exception is elderly women who break overwhelmingly for Hillary.
Also, Edwards does well with blue collar, and splits the "change" voting bloc. But Obama is their second choice. And the "change" bloc is almost 2/3 of the total.
In a two way race between Obama and Hillary, it's a blowout, with Obama getting blue collar, professionals, across the income/age spectrum.
The only real questions at this point is: how long will Edwards stay in? And considering he's not competitive anywhere, why is he staying in?
January 8, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
"In a two way race between Obama and Hillary, it's a blowout, with Obama getting blue collar, professionals, across the income/age spectrum."
The exit polls do not show this. Look at the CNN exit polls.
While Obama's distibution of incomes for his dominant demographic, the under 40 voter, is certainly across the lines. But the dominant by numbers group are under 40 and of that dominantly under 30.
The best indicator seems to me to be who actually voted and the results of IA and NH are almost exactly the same in terms of age and income based demographics. Hillary not only gets the groups who most reliably vote, she gets the most reliably democratic voters.
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, Edwards is getting a lot of the labor vote, which skews Obama's numbers.
But, Edwards supporters are overwhelmingly for Obama as second choice. Edwards himself is for Obama, after himself. As Edwards put it, they're the change candidates.
If Edwards drops out, Hillary is a goner, and Obama wins the primary across the board. In the GE, he'd also win across the board.
For example, tonight Edwards presently has 17%. If he dropped out and endorsed Obama, almost all of that would go to Obama. Which would be a huge blowout, not just from his votes, but also psychologically as people abandoned the Clinton/inevitability camp.
January 8, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't take that for granted at this point.
Edwards is going all the way and knows exactly the value of his constituency, whichever ways he goes it will be to their advantage.
If you look at the CNN NH exit poll she won the union vote pretty convincingly.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pal, your rating abuse of everyone you disagree with is really obnoxious. It just reflects poorly on you. I also think your credibility is highly dubious as your posting history shows you've been slagging Obama since your first posts in TPMC.
**
And on the facts no, she won the vote in a 3 way split.
In a two way between Hillary and Obama, Obama wins.
In a two way between Hillary and Edwards, Hillary wins.
Edwards is doing even worse this year than he did in 2004. He consistently polls about half of Obama's support nationwide and in many key states.
January 8, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Pal, your rating abuse of everyone you disagree with is really obnoxious."
Don't you think your projecting is obnoxious.
I don't slag on anybody. I am arguing entirely from the numbers. The reality is in NH Clinton won the Labor vote. That's what the exit polls show, and frankly I'll take this current set over any of the other polls that were released these last 5 days. I think based on these NH numbers you are wildly optimistic to think that 100% of Edwards will go to Obama.
Worse for Obama his key demographic, the under forties neither historically or currently have the numbers of actual voters to beat her key demographic of the over forties. NH has just demonstrated this.
I am guessing you are a big Obama advocate. That's great. But the reality is that minus the press delusion as demonstrated so clearly this last 5 days, even with a big enthusiastic youth turnout, he simply doesn't have the numbers to win.
The trends are good for him. 8 years from now when the older generation has died off more, and the younger ones have added to the ranks he will have more of a shot.
I'm very very pleased about the very positive future changes he and his young constituency are signaling for the longer term future of this country. But that future is not today.
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Baloney.
1) I don't abuse the rating system, as you do continually, even right through this thread and a bunch of others.
2) Your posting history shows you popped up here right as Obama was going to run, and have a scant posting history, much of which is dedicated to slagging Obama, and has been from your first posts.
January 8, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is actually a question about the comment quoted by Josh on the front page from MS about how she'd vote for Hillary just to spite Tweety et al.:
Isn't that just doing the same thing as voting however they tell you to? Isn't voting a certain way to spite the talking heads just as bad as voting in accordance with their wishes? In both cases, aren't you still letting them get you to vote for a candidate based on ephemeral bullshit, instead of your honest opinion on who the best candidate is?
(and yes, this was posted in one of the EC threads, but since this is the open discussion thread...)
January 8, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if we can take the MS comment as representative. Although there's been much said about how the tears were the reason for Hillary's win last night, we have absolutely no hard data that says that was the case. BUT still,
See a pattern here? These aren't the sorts of things that should determine elections, true, but the media has used them to the detriment of good Democratic candidates. Some spiting of the talking heads is long overdue, imho.
I'm not a Hillary supporter, but I don't like seeing her vilified, any more than I liked seeing Gore or Dean vilified. I'm glad the media-created meme of the Democratic candidate being emotionally unsuited to the Presidency didn't work this time.
Further, Hillary's win may have been the best thing that could happen to the Democratic party at this juncture. With Edwards staying in, it continues to be a race, rather than a coronation. A competitive race will keep voters interested and paying attention. What more could we Dems want? The more opportunity we have to look at real differences between the candidates, the stronger our eventual nominee choice will be.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
January 9, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Dean Scream was almost entirely a work of fiction. The people present didn't hear it that way. Instead, it was distorted sound rendered through a directional mike and then broadcast without any explanation as such literally several hundred times within a few days. It really doesn't amount to much more than a manipulated hatchet job.
Hillary's "tears" were nonexistent. Basically, it amounted to a catch in her voice for a microsecond, followed by speaking softly, quickly, but thoroughly rationally. We're not talking gushing waterworks. Again, its entirely a fictionalized manipulated reportage.
This is manufactured coverage.
January 9, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
deleted
January 9, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely!
The longer Edwards stays in the more progressive the whole lot campaign, everybody wins. Edwards is the push where Kucinich is only a nudge. Obama is learning, borrowing and polishing populist rhetoric, even the Mittster is talking like he can figure out some kind of change non Mormons will embrace. I heard this from Clinton's celebratory speech "...I want to especially thank New Hampshire, over the last week I listened to you and in the process I found John Edwards' voice I found my own voice." It's contagious, I love it, I hope they all get a serious case.
I find the time crunch of Super Tuesday to be the biggest obstacle to refining our candidates and getting them to promise campaign pledges, or at least bouncing the people's input off one another and getting it on record. I would much prefer a more stretched out primary, maybe drawn from the hat a couple of states a week. An elongated regional airing would help distill particular differences, finding more common ground, forcing candidates to listen while honing the message to a solid platform.
January 9, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You noticed too! :)
Agreed. I've often thought some sort of lottery system to establish primary dates would be a good idea, but regional contests make sense too. In the meantime, the best thing we've got is Edwards.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
January 9, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is it that when the exit polls SHARPLY diverge from the actual voting tallies in OTHER countries, the MSM and commentariat assume election hanky panky, but such thinking is considered "paranoid" in the US?
In the Ukraine, the evidence of a stolen election in 04 was palpable, but not as strong as in the US.
It's all about s^*(&ing down the blame......
(that's the name of the game, so to speak...)
January 8, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know what exit poll you are referring to but the CNN one seems to be very very accurate.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because endemic corruption at every level of politics is admitted by Ukrainians and Russians who know their own countries. That's a pretty good indicator. You have to pay bribes to get standard of care medicine in Russia today also, unless you're rich or siloviki.
January 8, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whereas American politics are paragons of integrity. ROTFL
January 9, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did I say that? See my blogs of late on party.
Are you a party member in Canada? What are the parties that most people belong to and which do you belong to if any?
Are you politically involved there?
I have read / studied very little about Canadian politics.
January 10, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I'm afraid I'm not a member of a political party.
As to what parties there are, there are several.
First and foremost there is the Liberal Party, which is probably the oldest uninterrupted party in the country. The Liberal Party dates back to Confederation when they were a decentralist, anglophone party. This lasted until approximately 1915 when Wilfred Laurier came along and the french vote became a part of it. Thereafter, in part because of the French vote, in part because of the Conservatives handling of the Depression, and in part because of the Liberals successful handling of the War and of the post war era, they have been the dominant political party occupying the political centre.
On the left, there has been the New Democratic Party, previously known as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. They're loosely analogous to the social democratic parties of Europe. Although never in power federally, they were instrumental in pushing Canada's adoption of various socialist or social safety net systems, including medicare, employment insurance, etc.
There is also, on the left, the Green Party, which has not broken through on every level but is making substantial strides.
In the past, as late as the 1960's, the communist party was a viable force in certain places and successfully elected persons, usually to municipal offices.
Also on the left are the Quebec Social Democrats - the Parti Quebecois and the Bloc Quebecois, which may or may not be the same thing, depending on whose asking and what day of the week it is. The Parti is provincial, the Bloc is federal. They are strongly left wing social democrats along the lines of the NDP. But where the NDP are federalists, the Parti/Bloc are separatists. Despite being separatist, they don't actually seem to have any intention of leaving, but rather, seek a revised federalism.
The Parti Quebecois was an indigenous political party movement which replaced Maurice Duplessis Quebec Nationalist 'Union National' which had dominated provincial politics for a generation.
Meanwhile, the Bloc is a splinter group from Brian Mulroney's center-right Progressive Conservatives (now defunct). Don't ask how a center-right federal political party factionned off a provincialist secessionist left wing group.
On the right, there is the endlessly mutable succession of parties.
Originally, there was the Conservative Party, which was instrumental in founding confederation and dominated Canadian politics up until WWI. Then around the twenties it fell on hard times.
Brieflly it was supplanted by the Progressive Party, which was a sort of left wing/right wing farmer's populist party. But the Progressives didn't believe in party politics, were ineffectual and eventually fell apart.
Their remnants merged with the moribund Conservative party and they became the Progressive Conservatives.
The Progressive Conservatives were a long running political party. After Brian Mulroney in the eighties, they broke apart into three parties. One faction became the right wing Reform Party, the other became the Bloc Quebecois of the left, and the centrist part remained Progressive Conservatives.
The Reform Party quickly determined that it had no real constituency outside of Western Canada and thereafter began to recast itself, trying to better its position.
In short order, it became the United Alternative Party, and then became the Canadian Alliance a decidedly fascistic moniker whose full name produced the acronym CRAP.
But they still didn't get anywhere, and the Progressive Conservative party wasn't going anywhere, so eventually these two parties united.
The new party was then called the Conservative Party.
And there you have it.
I've glossed over the Social Credit Party, the Creditistes, the Confederation of Regions Party, the Rhinoceros Party, etc., but that's a basic summary.
January 12, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Though inactive since the 1990's, during the 30 years the Rhinoceros Party participated in Canadian politics, it was known for sticking to its basic motto, which was "a promise to keep none of our promises."
This party's basic credo lives on in US politics and government today. A good example is the Dep't of Justice's Civil Rights division.
"To save your world you asked this man to die; Would this man, could he see you now, ask why?" W.H. Auden
January 12, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
If parties are allowed but forced into lesser stature / power via serious anti-trust and campaign finance laws, then they become participants, not dictators. That would open the door to greater populist fluidity and hopefully more I & R, with parties becoming public interest educational / or issue education groups.
January 13, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! Don't be a party-pooper and make my day!
"To save your world you asked this man to die; Would this man, could he see you now, ask why?" W.H. Auden
January 11, 2008 5:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the Media:
The author was Josh Marshall.January 8, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh needs to re-write and flip the names.
January 8, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most dreadful thing about a Hillary victory at this late stage will be all the bloviating pundits speculating on what her crying had to do with it. If you thought the discourse was stupid before now, they're just now getting started.
January 8, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If anything I think the press has to admit that instead of a beauty pageant what the voters really want is the return of the wonk.
I don't know how may press reports I read, an I'm thinking of the Dickerson Slate video as a prime offender, tried to say that policy is boring to voters.
Hillary is the wonk of the crew and her talking about the details of her policies was very effective. I saw her on Friday in S. NH and I have to say I was really impressed. I never realized how genuinely smart she is until I had the opportunity to see her in person.
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.politicalconsultantmisconduct.blogspot.com/
Political consultants and dirty tricks
January 8, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
On a night the biggest loser was the Media they can't stop themselves from analysing what they obvious know nothing abut to an inch of its life.
How many months ago was McCain finished. Hillary was too angry, no wait she was too teary, no wait it is Bill who is too angry.
When does not Media both admit error or at least show some humility. Perhaps Guantanamo has some use afterall.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
January 8, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps Guantanamo has some use afterall.
Not even in jest.
January 8, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
On a night the biggest loser was the Media
We go to the polls with the media we have. Not the media we want...
January 8, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Defining "change"....
I'm a woman, a progressive and a feminist and despite my being closer to Edwards' positions, I was thrilled at Obama's win in Iowa, think Hillary would be able to handle the presidency deftly (despite having lukewarm feelings for her) and I though Bill Clinton was a great President.
But, the MSM's pathological myopia lasered on defining "change" as being about the Dem Iowa caucus voters choosing Obama because they wanted a "change" from the Clintons and not because Dems wanted a "change" from 7 hellish years of BUSH's disastrous foreign and domestic policies.
January 8, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm an Obama supporter, but you know what? Gloria Steinem's column in today's NYT was right on. So I'm proud of my sisters in NH.
January 8, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not. Gender politics is just as divisive as red states and blue states. The Clintons are polarizing and do not know how to bring this country together all they excell at is pitting folks against one another whether it is GOP and Dems or their new fight...men vs. women. Their continuity brawling and partisan bickering underscored now with sexist tones would be the worse thing to happen to this country. Hillary will beleive she can do anything as President as long as she can justify it on a sexist basis.
This stinks. And it smells like machine politics specifically the Clinton machine.
January 8, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see a conspiracy here at all.
Obama and Hillary pulled in NH exactly the same demographics they pulled in IA. Hillary got more voters from her key demographics to the polls than Obama did. And I think this speaks to the limitations of Obama's key demographic.
Obama's strength in the under 40s and particularly the under 25s is awesome, but these groups just don't vote in the same numbers as the over 40s.
It's all immediately visible in the CNN exit polls of the two events.
Click here for CNN NH poll
Click here for CNN IA poll
smacfarl
http://reddit.com/user/smacfarl/
January 8, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not so. The demographics out of IA were that Obama pulled the women vote, not Hillary. The demographics out of NH are that Hillary is pulling the women vote. Sounds very much like a machine politics to me. All of a sudden Penn's polling demographic 'the woman vote' is coming in strong for Hillary after her 'weeping lapse'.
I don't think it's a conspiracy. Just dirty politics and the political machine at work for the status quo candidate, we have seen it over and over and over for the past 4 decades in America, every since RFK was shot. The masses do not get to select the candidate as the special interests come in and derail the process, just as they bused all those folks into NH to make it appear that Hillary was bringing in crowds. Those people were from NY, Boston, Maryland...Scarborough said he saw the plates and asked the folks. Only the status quo candidate wins. Reall easy to see the pattern.
January 8, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The big difference between the Iowa and NH results is that one was a caucus and the other an election. In the caucus the big losers told their supporters to go for Obama, and most apparently did just that. In NH those "loser supporters" voted for their candidates and not for Obama. It is so simple the pundits are very unlikely to ever figure it out.
The NH poll mistakes are partly the natural NH tendency to lie to pollsters, and partly the effect of the 20% undecided voting block deciding to support Clinton more than Obama.
Hoppy in Sacramento
January 8, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw your reddit site. You're a campaign volunteer, pure and simple. I don't expect to hear anything but yesmanship for your team. Go team!
Hillary's speech was one cardboard platitude after another. Every year I heard a student council president-elect give a speech, it sounded like that. I'll bet she's had the same speech since she ran for hall monitor in kindergarten. "We will face the challenges. We will seize the opportunities.." It's enough to give you sleep apnea.
I don't expect anyone to come out with technical plans for how they're going to fulfill their visions during the propaganda phase (the whole campaign). But at least they can say something that sounds better than that. Obama did.
Worse, Hillary said she just found her voice. Because she lost Iowa. Had she won Iowa, the implication is, she'd have continued speaking with someone elses?
January 8, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
whiterosebuddy, I don't agree with your opinions about the Clintons, but it really doesn't matter - as I said, I'm an Obama supporter, in part because he's got that rock star quality that has the potential to produce very long coatails that will result in Dem gains in congressional and statewide elections. Nonetheless, I'm enjoying today - its a very unladylike middle finger to the neanderthals.
January 8, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is, by giving that knee-jerk reaction, by voting to spite the smug voices instead of voting for the candidate you feel is the best one, what's created isn't any kind of 'lesson' for the talking heads. They'll ignore it and congratulate themselves for being so amazingly right, just like they always do when they're wrong. What it does have the possibility to create is momentum and the impression of greater support for a given candidate than is accurate, and from there, the 'bump' that the victory-bandwagoneers provide. Enough of a push from that, and congratulations, knee-jerk spite voting has the chance to alter the results of the election, giving the Presidency to a candidate getting votes for their party's nomination from people who felt that someone else would do a better job.
Vote your honest preference, don't let the talking heads influence you with their talking-headedness.
January 8, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill, imagine a lifetime of being told you are inferior because of your gender. Then imagine a week of watching concentrated attacks on someone because they share that gender. Then imagine seeing a bunch of people you don't know rise up and defend that person, in effect shouting "BACK OFF!" to the attack brigade. It would cheer you up, trust me.
January 9, 2008 7:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would indeed. However, no matter how much it might cheer me up, one thing remains true:
You should vote for the candidate you feel is the best for the job. Period. If you vote to spite someone, you are still giving that someone power over your vote.
The election process, and maintaining the integrity of that process, is our highest duty as citizens. That includes superceding making one another feel warm and fuzzy about making a statement to the talking heads who will ignore that statement and learn nothing.
January 9, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
What percentage of print journalists and commentators are Jewish Americans? Are they representive in the field comparable to their respective American population?
I ask the question because it seems, anectdotally, that a disproportionate number of columnist, commentator and journalist names are Jewish surnames. Why is that?
And why am I being punished for asking the question? Ethnic percentages are measured in every institution, profession, school, and other bottleneck of societal participation these days. And the census asks many more invasive questions. I ask this question and I get downrated for asking a simple question that goes to the issue of election coverage bias that has been floated quite a bit.
I'm not saying there's collusion or conspiracy, however, there is a signficant issue in representativeness. Am I less an American and my speech less important because I'm not Jewish, but a "gentile?" I challenged someone's use of the word "gentile" as a classification term used about someone ... i.e. he's a "righteous gentile" as if it had to be said to approve of a non-Jewish person or else by default they weren't a righteous gentile.
Why this glaring pile-on for using my free speech rights to question something that I think is fair to ask? I've advocated for Jewish Americans, Jewish immigrants and have written strong articles against holocaust deniers / denial in columns on the matter. I've friends and family of Jewish ethnicity. But still, I ask the question.
Can anyone answer it, or am I going to get little ratings cuts to try to silence me on the matter? Representativeness is a fairness and bias-control issue.
January 8, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mike, you may be the Jewish peoples best friend, but in the context of Gloria Steinem's column, your question struck me as bizarre. And to be honest, your expanded version has not helped.
Gloria Steinem's father was Jewish-American, but what in the world does that have to do with what she wrote in her column or with your question?
"To save your world you asked this man to die; Would this man, could he see you now, ask why?" W.H. Auden
January 8, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a good question. To be honest, the election bores the tears out of me, Seashell. It's all the generalities and platitudes and the cyclic promises that are almost always broken. It's so formulaic, it seems pavlovian.
One thing that was running through my head when I asked it was whether there was distrust for Obama among the Jewish American electorate because of his childhood ties to Islam in Indonesia, and whether that reflected itself in the urban vote in New Hampshire? Does Hillary enjoy more support from segments of the Jewish American electorate? I wonder. I don't know. I'm not a Dem or a Republican.
And I've read with interest some of MJ Rosenberg's posts about the hubbub over neocon Kristol at NYT, and one of the posters in that thread referred to someone as a "righteous gentile." That implied to me that unless otherwise conferred, all other gentiles must be un-righteous. It bothered me.
Now I am over here on this thread about the election, and it seems that nearly every pundit referenced lately has had a Jewish surname, then you mention Steinem. I am noticing what seems like a disproportionate number of Jewish Americans in the commentator and journalist positions in American media companies. I have heard the tin-foil crazies who allege conspiracies etc., and recognize that for what it is, but I still have to ask about the representation question versus occurrence in the population. It seems a fairness issue in a diverse country in which proportionality is valued and in which the candidates seem to be talking about opportunity, fairness, fair shakes and the like.
IF, a big IF, there is an unfair skewing of ethnic representation on behalf of one group or another in the messaging industry, I am wondering how this could be considered a matter of diversity. I'd ask the same question if it seemed to me that most of the high profile commentators and journalists I'd been seeing anecdotally were Maldivian surnames, or Surinamian surnames, and those populations were over-represented in the messaging / analysis / news industry.
I have read Alan Dershowitz in Chutzpah discussing certain industries that Jews tended to go into because of then-availability following WWII and the Holocaust as a way of flourishing but also self-protecting. Who could blame anyone for that? And Jewish Americans surely wouldn't be setting precedent in that. Irish, Italian, Greek and you-name-it Americans have historically set out cooperative goals for establishing, self-protecting and progressing as groups as they moved from new to elder immigrant status. Is that bad? No. It seems the norm. Except for one thing: the Holocaust zeroed in on the Jews of all nations. I understand how that might cause self-protective inter-cultural favoritism against the world in which anti-Semitism has emerged and re-emerged again and again. I grew up loving the book and movie "The Chosen" and one of my favorite books of all time is Pete Hammil's "Snow in August."
Personally, I wasn't in that world growing up. I heard about it, and occasionally heard kids cast aspersions at others on the basis of race or culture or tell ill-jokes, but it seemed that most races and cultures were covered, and so it was equal opportunity bad.
However, if over time, in a diverse society, there emerges favoritism for one's own ethnic group within an industry or sector of the economy or even in a government bureaucracy in a locality or region, no matter the ethnicity, is that a good thing or a bad thing in 2007? Is it unifying or divisive? Is it safer for the favored group or not? I can ask this regarding anglos also.
It wasn't long ago I watched the movie directed by Robet DeNiro, "The Good Shepherd," about the beginnings of US spy services in which Matt Damon was supposed to reflect a mixture of a number of past CIA men, mainly James Jesus Angleton the famed CIA counter-intelligence chief. In it, Joe Pesci's character, being interviewed by Damon's character, asks Damon this:
You know this is a statement on ethnicity and power in America, and it is conspiracy-based. Do you believe it about anglos? It is clearly aimed at the anglo-American ID of Damon's character, and consistent with the movie's biases, it is answered to confirm the conspiracy theorems. Does Robert de Niro distrust anglos because this was kept in the film? Or the writer? Or are they offering an idea, popular perception or what have you?
I have watched an Indian-cast comedy / love story that portrayed the Indian-American family expectation that sons or daughters should be doctors or marry doctors. It was exaggerated, but it illustrates how cultural observations are considered differently from different sources.
You may want to note the following counterexamples to the gentleman's representations about me:
Mike7Woodson's BlogPutin and Moscow Prosecutor's Usual Suspects: Ukrainians, Chechens and JewsBy Mike7Woodson | bio2 of 2 people recommend this blog entry.andhttp://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/aug/01/what_israel_means_to_me#comment-149948January 9, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Something wrong if you're bored by this election. The circumstances of this election are potentially transformational. And if you ever get a chance to be within shouting distance of Obama you will no longer be bored.
How can this race be boring? Experience vs charisma? Continuing policy vs. major change? Minority or distaff side vs. old white male? Secular against religious? And what remains to be discovered in WH records that will further disgrace the GOP for having backed the wrong horse?
Things must not be going your way, to be frustrated by this fantastically fun and fraught political season.
January 9, 2008 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
It has been fun in the past, too. And then the fun ends when the promises are broken. We've seen it before and here we are. The movers of the political system who remain in Washington year in and year out did not avert the path to where we are, even though some predicted it.
There is something deeper than a problem with this candidate or that. This president or that. There is something more disturbing in the culture of politics in this country that is depressing to the people and making them literally sick.
The entire government, not just the president, needs a country that is united and whose groups, associations and organizations, ethnic and otherwise, are able to cross part lines and solve pressing problems together, lending their weight to a unified, cooperative health care solution. That is the hope of Obama's politics.
Regarding the fear uncovered by my question above, I'm asking a real question. What is the truth? I don't care about names, I care about reality. Is there a fair, merit-based multi-ethnic Fourth Estate?
Daniel Schorr's "In the lion's dens" recounts how he was once turned away from the NY Times because they'd put a freeze on hiring folks with Jewish surnames. Was that warranted then? Was that a form of discrimination against Schorr for being Jewish, or was it to please some other power in the city which was anti-Semitic? Was it merit based? Or were Jewish named candidates the most qualified?
If we don't have transparency and truth we can't join together with mutual and poly-mutual trust. We have to work for that no matter our ethnicity or race, our party or our geographic/economic interests.
January 9, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steinem's column was well written and thought provoking. Some points I agree with and some seem too focused on victim-status in the sense that part of that status is permitted by the victim and should not be. More said about that fact would improve the column.
Having said that, that in no way detracts from those forces that have been trying not only to subjugate women, but also deride them should they speak freely. They are derided in the media, for example, through the Brittany's; bribed with money without regard to their capacity to handle and fully understand what's going on (forget legal capacity, I'm talking actual and evident capacity rooted in life experience or inexperience). And this is what is "celebrated."
This is what thousands of young people are trying to get or emulate on You-Tube. To become "performers" for others, like a court jester. If that doesn't show the impact of "celebrity" what does? To make someone else more money as a rising star, escape if you've got good advice, or see self-destruction if not. The fall is gleefully celebrated with false shock by the same industry / companies that bring these "examples" to the precipice. It's the same way industrial machine parts are treated. Used, shined for inspection, then recycled in a heap of to-be-destroyed items.
Look at Yahoo! alone, participating in making Brittany's humiliation a bandwitdth and mass attention hog of a puffed product, the disintegrating young woman. Before that, it was Jessica Simpson. But you know what's really strange: the dumb bimbo is almost always a white anglo saxon girl, and her undoing is an implied point. Not that any other race of person (without exception) should ever, ever act as a replacement, or arent' also portrayed awefully.
The teaching of the male-dominated PR, TV, entertainment and News industry is well exemplified by FOX News. It uses lots and lots of blonde anchor women, some who know what they're talking about, but more who do not, and instead peddle a form of propaganda for a partisan cause. They say it is in the name of balance. Of fairness. But it is not. It is part of the alignments of division within our country.
It is done via fictional characters played. Too often, whether positive or negative, the woman's role model is as a follower, nurturer of a bad man, bad-girl or what have you. The so-called heroic roles for women frequently have them imitating male heroes of past programming, and posing for fashion to cool music rather than acting well. Lower-wage workers tend to be portrayed as comedic instead of real people. They are too often clowns or outrageous people. Serving to entertain the rich folks.
On occasion you have a hero, a pioneer, a brilliant girl, a Reese Witherspoon character, or a the lady character in the movie with Harrison Ford where the secretary becomes the boss. Boy do we need more exceptions with more bandwidth. Yet even these are shown to be exceptions and tend to emphasize the looks anyway.
The message to young women is: here is what you are for, to serve then self-destruct when you are of no more use (can't be used as an ornament).
So you bet I recognize the sexism, but note that it exists shamefully in the halls of traditional democratic contributors, with potential racial and socioeconomic undertones too. Well, if this were done to anyone else than predominantly majority race, religion or culture characters, it would be charged as covert or even overt racism or bigotry. Done to a majority member of the gender, NBD, right? Well yes it is. Because to get out of the pickle this country is in now, we need all hands to be inspired to excel, to be educated, and not to be dumbed down. Am I incorrect? We can't have a drug-like media dumbing anymore kids down. This hits poor kids the most because their folks are less able to be at home; two jobs or one parent. Boom the TV or cable is on with the babysitter or worse, they're stuck at a daycare. You ever use familywatchdog.com search around day care businesses in the lower socioeconomic locations in cities? Pretty scary.
Everyone's at stake. Now tell me that there are not business executives carefully handling this celebrity propaganda you can't get away from even while checking out from buying your food. And they don't seem to give a damn about the effects it has on the young. I'm with Steve Allen on this, 100%. I'm with Michael Medved on this issue. Culture is a highly significant topic. Why is it on the Discussion Table over there if it were not? What is healthy culture? Isn't that worth a discussion more often? Action?
What is it these firms are expecting us not to think about as they push celebrity distraction and tabloid journalism in broadcast and internet media-tainment?
January 10, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
You took an awful long post just to say that you don't trust Jews. In that respect, no matter how long your post it, you are a bigot, not the reasonable questioner you suggest you are.
As far as the term Gentiles is concerned, take a peek at the New Testament. You'll find it hundreds of times there, properly spelled with a capital G.
January 8, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the link to the use of "righteous gentile" I brought up earlier:
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2008/jan/07/kristols_first_times_oped_neoconservatism_for_idiots#comment-326466
You've said that you do not trust non-Jews who ask questions about ethnic representation within institutions that involve Jewish Americans. You have assumed the high and mighty power to condemn me as a bigot because I asked the question. By condemning my motives you show your distrust of a "gentile" in a clear case of pre-judgment of my motives. Yet I am supposed to take that because I'm a "gentile," right?
Just answer the question, if you can. It is straightforward, and meant to be straightforward, not an aspersion or as a perjorative reference. One thing that was running through my head when I asked it was whether there was distrust for Obama among the Jewish American electorate because of his childhood ties to Islam in Indonesia, and whether that reflected itself in the urban vote in New Hampshire? Does Hillary enjoy more support from segments of the Jewish American electorate? I wonder. I don't know. I'm not a Dem or a Republican.
There isn't an ounce of anti-Jewish personality in me. You can scour my writings and interview everyone I know. I have to admit I don't like your accusatory tone and the air of assumed entitlement to smear me with the label of bigot. It comes across as threatening or intimidating. You've called me a bigot on this public forum. You're making legally actionable statements about me. I'm asking you to withdraw your libel.
The question I raised about the use of the world "Gentile" or "gentile" was the use "righteous Gentile". Does it connote a default going the other way for those not so identified? Help me understand that modern usage. I take it that the usage in antiquity (NT times) was different from that used today.
I have family who have risked life in WWII and who thought it worthwhile considering the crimes against humanity Hitler perpetrated against many, many populations, but chiefly the Jews. My dad was never anti-Semitic and probably had to have someone tell him what it meant at some point. None of my siblings has ever been so. I just totally reject your statements as false, libelous and damaging and can't understand why you'd jump the gun like that after a direct, honest question.
January 8, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your not going to answer me, are you. You are going to raise the accusatory finger, judge and disappear without confronting the reality of the person you falsely judged?
January 9, 2008 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Arrogance is ugly on anyone's face, and every group needs freedom from it. No exceptions.
The fact that Hillary got emotional after she lost Iowa raises questions. Does she do what she needs to do not to lose power instead of do what she needs to do to do the right thing?
January 9, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
deleted
January 9, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you're PO'd at the comment, go ahead and tell. I'll listen.
January 10, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The McCain blowout here is big but it's just more fragmentation.
Iowa was less than a week ago - no matter who wins, NH is close enough so both Hillary and Obama can claim victory. Short term, it keeps Obama supporters from getting cocky. It will probably raise more money for Obama than Clinton.
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January 8, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Follow-up to my previous post - I'd also like to thank the morons from the Boston radio station that staged the "Iron my shirt!" stunt. I sure it delivered more votes to Clinton than Steinem's editorial!!!
January 8, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right now I've got a bit of egg on my face for my personal predictions, but I'm actually pretty thrilled that this is obviously not "over." (Yes, I know the night isn't even over)
I'm very anxious to see how the the Gentleman from Illinois handles tonights results. If he's as good as they say, this won't hurt him a bit.
January 8, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's the surprise? I always thought this was going to be a close race. I'd be happily surprised if Obama won by a blowout, but expect it? No way. I said in the ARG/Zogby poll threads, they're totally unreliable and should be discarded.
Some things to remember:
After Iowa, Hillary needed to create the narrative she was the comeback kid. Her supporters would need to have her over-perform expectations. Lowering expectations was in her advantage.
The reality is Obama was behind by double digits not long ago and has come back several points. Hillary has dropped several points over the last few weeks.
McCain is competitive in NH, which means independents who lean Republican can vote for a Republican winner, in the primary, though it's less likely in the GE.
The polls that predicted a huge Obama win in NH, also predicted a huge Hillary win in Iowa. They're just lousy polls, and people shouldn't follow them.
Edwards is still splitting the "Change" vote, which is the majority, allowing Hillary to remain competitive with a minority.
January 8, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kozmik,
We might disagree about a bunch of things but I'm totally behind the message of this post
Folks, the polls and the media give you a sense of direction but they're not telling us what we have to do. These are the early fights in the election. Your favorite candidate is not going to be knocked out right here.
Then only 2 candidates who are out (Biden and Dodd) have taken themselves out of the race. If they're still on your ballot when your primary rolls around, and if you like them you should even feel free to vote for them.
Fact is, it's the media that decided right after Iowa to wrap things up and find a new narrative for our nominating process. It's not real. I'm not an Obama supporter but if he wins, we can debate the merits of supporting him. We're not there yet.
Same way, if he loses NH, it is not a disaster for him. Among the big three candidates for sure, and probably even beyond, everybody has a shot until after Feb 5.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
January 8, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be clear, there are consistently accurate polls, often the local polls. In the NH race, and the Iowa race, it was the local polls with a good track record who called the races most accurately.
The big polling houses like ARG and Zogby can be all over the place.
I didn't see anybody smart calling it over. What I did see are some astute observations that Hillary has been dropping nationally, and that Obama has been picking up large gains. Which is a fact.
Another fact is that Edwards supporters will overwhelmingly break for Obama in a two way. Look at the numbers, and consider Edwards' votes goignt to Obama, and that is a blow out.
Otherwise, it's going to be close. Hillary can stay competitive with even 1/3 the vote, in a three way. In a two way, she's toast.
January 8, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also think Josh has lost his wits by calling this a huge upset. Talk about drinking the MSM cool-aid.
Here's the facts I was looking at:
Obama was behind by double digits all year in NH. He was rising as Hillary was falling, for several weeks, but it was trending towards a close race.
Any loss Hillary suffers on account of her own record, or loss of inevitability, is split between Obama and Edwards. So whatever Hillary loses is only half as bad for her competitiveness.
Obama did get a bump in Iowa, of a few to several points, but he was still about tied and within the MOE in the more reliable polls.
ARG & Zogby have been especially bad, all over the place.
When Hillary is the perceived winner, such as in Iowa, she needs to maintain that image. But the perceived loser benefits by low expectations if they can win or even tie, to exceed expectations, and claim victory against expectations.
The last minute polls all showed a huge jump for Obama. But, these are polls of a very brief window. Any large changes over such a short period are by nature hugely volatile, and might not be real.
There was a large bloc of undecideds until fairly late in NH. And those voters are often less informed and prone to snap decisions, as we also saw in 2000 and 2004, which makes them especially volatile and hard to predict or poll.
***
It's really disappointing to me that politcal pundits, here on a blog seeking to improve on the MSM, didn't show more intelligence about these things. And actually wound up buying into exactly the MSM spin one can get anywhere.
As I said in the threads here about the last moment ARG and ZOGBY polls, it was foolish to consider this anything but a close race.
That people allowed themselves to buy into the nonsense, and are now calling Hillary's squeaked 2% victory a "huge upset" for a plurality in a three way race, while she was trending down for the last several weeks...
Come on. Bloggers are supposed to do better than the MSM.
January 8, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
AS DK notes, “Hillary ran well among voters who decided their preference late in the campaign”
After she lost in Iowa, the press was quick to report about the demise of HRC. The Times even ran a story about how she might withdraw from the race following a NH loss (ridiculous!).
I think NH voters were watching this, watching the polls creep up for Obama, and maybe felt very uncomfortable with an early, unexpected demise of the leading Dem candidate. Voters who were on the fence, and who may have even told pollsters they were veering towards Obama may have switched at the last minute.
Honestly, they may have felt sorry for HC. I admit I kinda did. Not much of a Hillary fan, but I was strangely uncomfortable with the idea of her early demise. Someone who’s been such a huge public figure – to see that go up in smoke so quickly, I don’t care who it is, it’s sad. You feel for them. Maybe seeing Hillary get all teary and quiet and sad made people forget how uninspiring she is.
January 9, 2008 7:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have liked Hillary from the start, but I have nothing against Obama--in fact, I think he may be the strongest candidate in a general election. The guy does have that magic JFK grace and self-confidence (and I'm old enough to remember that well.)
The attitude of the MSM these last few days, in particular (ignoring their attitude for a long time) is that whatever Hillary does, it's wrong. First she was the cold, calculating witch (because they don't dare say the b-word), then she "cackled" (sounded like a hearty laugh to me), then she--Omigod--cried. And all of it was wrong, to hear them tell it.
If she wins tonight, it's not a vote against Obama, it's a vote against the media. And I am not generally a media basher. But this has just been ridiculous.
Who "cackles"? Witches. I would bet most of the reporters and anchors would blanch if you told them they were just another incarnation of Barbara Bush (re Geraldine Ferraro, remember?), but that's the way they've acted.
They should grow up and quit patronizing women.
Good for Hillary, if she pulls this out.
As the saying goes, "You go, girl."
January 8, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I think the media's treatment of Hillary created a backlash for her. I am in Florida and leaning toward Obama but I would voted for her today.
January 8, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is more like it, rather than a "sympathy" vote that Chris Matthews has been talking about this evening. I'm not a supporter of Clinton, and it wouldn't affect my vote, but I've felt more empathy toward her given the full-press nastiness that's been directed toward her lately.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
January 8, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
this may not be an original observation, but absent some earthshaking event I see Obama getting the nomination. The people supporting non-Obama, non-Hillary Dem candidates, I can see them switching to Obama if/when it becomes a two-person race. I can't see them switching to Hillary. It's the Iowa caucus 2nd-choice voters writ large.
January 8, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm... you might be right, but don't push your luck with me. My issue right now is not whether I should vote for Obama in the primary but whether or not I'll support him in the general if he beats Edwards and Hillary. Voting for Obama in the primary is something I might do, but only in the ense that I might do anything. If Obama's nominated it becomes, for me anyway, Obama vs. a third party candidate. Honestly, when my favored candidated (Edwards) has been so mistrated by the media, the party can't just expect me to get on board with whoever wins the nomination. No way I'm voting Obama just because I'm supposed to.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
January 8, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
if it was a two person race between obama and clinton, i'd stay home. but in the general i will be voting against the republi