On Foreign Policy, At Least Two Huckabees
Now that the Iowa caucuses have confirmed his position as a top tier candidate for the Republican nomination, Mike Huckabee's frighteningly slim knowledge of foreign policy actually matters. If they know anything about his views at all, most Americans have probably heard about his statement on the Don Imus radio show that "I may not know anyting about foreign policy, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night." It was a decent joke, and a good way to deflect attention from the real issue.
But the time for joking about Huckabee's lack of foreign policy expertise has passed. What does he actually think about Iraq, Pakistan, Iran and other hot button foreign policy issues? The answers are more complicated than you might expect.
First, what about the vast store of things Huckabee doesn't know about the world? After all, he's the one who claimed that the second largest flow of immigrants into the United States across the Mexican border is made up of Pakistanis. And, he was not aware of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran four hours after it was released, and long after other candidates had read and publicly commented on it. When confronted with his slow response, Huckabee said of President Bush "he hasn't read it in four years, why should I have to read it in four hours?" Of course, this only compounded the problem, since the NIE was of much more recent vintage -- this particular document didn't exist four years ago.
Compounding Huckabee's problem on this front is that, unlike George W. Bush, he has not assembled a team of experienced advisors to school him on key foreign policy matters. During his first run for office, Bush seemed to be joined at the hip with Colin Powell; Huckabee is joined at the hip with that well known foreign policy expert, Chuck Norris. Bush was also being tutored by Condoleezza Rice, and he had an inner circle of advisors that included Richard Armitage, Paul Wolfowitz and (of course) Dick Cheney. Whatever one thinks of their views (and I don't think much of them), there was no question that these were people with experience at crafting and implementing foreign and national security policies.
Who's advising Huckabee? The only known experts are J. French Hill, a former Treasury department official in the George H.W. Bush administration, and Frank Gaffney, a neo-conservative in good standing who runs the Center for Security Policy in Washington. Huckabee also tried to claim former UN Ambassador John Bolton as an informal advisor, but when contacted on the matter Bolton indicated that the two men had never spoken to each other. And to round out a rather sketchy picture, in a New York Times magazine profile Huckabee cited both Gaffney and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman as key influences on his foreign policy thinking.
So, he doesn't exactly have a deep reservoir of advice to draw upon (this could obviously change later, if he remains the frontrunner). But what has he said on the key issues? One would think that a guy with Frank Gaffney on his team and a desire to "learn" from John Bolton might have a straight neo-conservative line. But that's only half of the story.
In an attention-grabbing article in the new issue of Foreign Affairs, Huckabee has asserted that "the Bush administration's arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad." In the Foreign Affairs piece and a September 2007 speech at the Center for Strategic and International studies that served as the basis for the article, Huckabee takes a number of positions that would fit comfortably into the platform of a liberal Democrat.
In a call for nurturing "native moderate forces" in the Middle East, Huckabee has suggested that "we have existing repressive governments that stay in power by force and suppression of basic human rights -- many of which we support, either with our oil money, like the Saudis, or with our aid, like the Egyptians." While noting that "we can't export democracy as if it was Coca Cola or KFC," he argues that the U.S. can support the development of governments that are "better than either the dictatorships they have now or the theocracy they would have under the radical Islamists."
On Iran, Huckabee is far more open to wide ranging negotiations than are any of his Republican rivals, as noted in his CSIS speech: "We have valuable incentives to offer Iran in exchange for helping to stabilize Iraq; not supporting the Taliban, Hamas, and Hezbollah; and abandoning its nuclear ambitions -- trade and economic assistance, full diplomatic relations and security guarantees . . . we have substantive issues to negotiate with them."
Huckabee also takes a much more skeptical view of the Musharraf regime in Pakistan than many of his rivals do (a position he held well before the recent crisis spurred by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto). He essentially sees Musharraf as a man attached to his own power and privileges at the expense of U.S. interests in the region. In addition, Huckabee targets inequality as a major force in the destabilization of the country: "Both civilian and military governments have consistently favored the rich . . .Social progress has lagged dramatically behind economic progress, with per capita income in 2006 at $720 per year. Estimates of its literacy range from 30 to 50%. While the mililtary gets 25% of the budget, health, education, and social services get less than 3%."
This is the "liberal" Mike Huckabee, the man that his conservative critics have derided as "the Republican Jimmy Carter."
But Huckabee's surprising stands on the above-mentioned issues are counterbalanced with a much more standard menu of conservative stances. He wants to add 92,000 troops to the armed forces -- a hawkish position, but more or less in line with what Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have advocated. More startlingly, he wants to jack up the military budget from 3.9% of GDP to 6% of GDP, a huge increase at a time when U.S. military expenditures are already at their highest levels since World War II.
Then there is his promise to launch unilateral strikes into Pakistan if the government in Islamabad doesn't eliminate Taliban and Al Qaeda havens in the tribal areas. Huckabee has tried to package this aggressive proposal in a homey analogy, saying that it would not be akin to a military occupation but to a kid retrieving a baseball that went over the fence into his neighor's yard. Quick, short, then get out. Where have we heard that before?
And on Iraq, Huckabee is straight out of the Bush mold. He talks of a "path to victory" and pledges that "We will remain in Iraq into the next administration, and I am prepared to finish this war with honor and victory."
So, if elected (still a long shot), which Huckabee would it be? The liberal diplomat who's concerned about increasing education and reducing inequality in Pakistan and elsewhere, or the conservative hawk who wants to increase the military budget by 50%, launch unilateral strikes in Pakistan, and "stay the course" in Iraq? Or both?
Stay tuned -- if he stays near the front of the pack, he will hopefully be pressed to set out a more consistent foreign policy perspective.













Really only Richardson and Biden have any knowledge of the nuts and bolts of foreign policy, the rest are repeating stuff their advisers have primed them with. I imagine that Ed Rollins can find somebody in his legendary Rolodex to tutor Huckabee, who is smart and a quick study. The interesting thing would be to find out what his take is on the "last days" reading of the Middle East situation. That might put him in a corner. All in all, except for his sales tax, most of what he says makes sense.
There is another misconception that should be talked out, the idea that because Obama is brown skinned and named "Barack Hussein" that this is going to have some huge healing effect on the Islamic world... Nothing could be farther from the truth. If Barack Hussein Obama's father and grandfather were Muslims and he is a Christian, then that makes him an apostate, which is about the worst thing in the world for a Muslim, apostasy is generally punished by death. Some balsamic effect, no?
http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/
January 4, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apostasy? This is smoke blown by Daniel Pipes; there's no evidence that there's anything to it. Do you know who Daniel Pipes is? He's one of the core neocons. I would not base my understanding of the Muslim world on his comments.
January 4, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently, apostasy in Islam is well documented. And, it seems, death is the preferred punishment.
Just last week, an Iranian was sentenced to death for apostasy. This particular case may be politically motivated, but its still a judgment against apostasy.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym
January 4, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well if you believe that "understanding" the Muslim world is arguing that everything about them is wrong and evil, then you could use Pipes....
You see, this is what really sucks about the Emirates. They have this exploding GDP and are building really modern cities. It's getting harder and harder for Thomas Friedman and Pipe Man to write columns about how backward they are.
January 4, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, apostasy. But lately we've been thumbing their eyes with Unhooded strong female Secretaries of State, and we're adulterating their precious petrol with Ethanol.
I'm okay with that.
January 4, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, come on. This is a left wing blog. Who among us cares what Huckabee does or does not know.
Let's not waste our time examining the thoughts of Lonesome Rhodes.
January 4, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
January 4, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen,
Bill Clinton and Tony Blair made their careers triangulating conservatives and this proved that at that time the conservative Reagan/Thatcher message was the most popular. That Huckabee is making so many "liberal" noises should encourage Democrats to "be themselves" instead of hedging so much.Studying your adversary with respect is a sign of intelligence. Huckabee is by far the most talented of the Republican field and if they are not careful the Democrats may find the Republicans eating their lunch all over again.
http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/
January 4, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the most likely to successfully shift shapes. But can he reshape himself around the 50% of his Republican constituency that actually cares about the world we're in, and can that lose him the half focused completely on the world we're not in, assuming it exists...
The question appears to be, does he join the East-West fundamentalist contest with love or as an agent of the apocalypse?
Wheee,
January 4, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Studying your adversary (Huckabee) with respect is a sign of intelligence. David Seaton
But wasting one's time doing so before he becomes one ("your adversary") is a sign of . . . oh well, better leave that one alone.
January 4, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
David Seaton is correct, I think, that Richardson and Biden are the leading foreign policy hands among the Democrats, although Hillary Clinton knows her stuff as well. She visited Central Asia when I lived there, and if she was well-versed in that arcane region, which she was, I think she can handle the more front-burner issues.
I also agree that Huckabee is a quick study. I heard him speak in Dallas, and he can pick up what he needs to know. But the questions on how he navigates once he's briefed are, as William Hartung suggests, serious indeed. Some of his personal stances -- on science for example -- are worrying if he intends to extend ideological thinking into foreign policy as the current administration has done.
Steve LeVine, author
The Oil and the Glory
http://www.oilandglory.com
January 4, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Then there is his promise to launch unilateral strikes into Pakistan if the government in Islamabad doesn't eliminate Taliban and Al Qaeda havens in the tribal areas. ... Quick, short, then get out. Where have we heard that before?"
Actually, from Barack Obama.
"I understand that President Musharraf has his own challenges. But let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. ... If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf will not act, we will."
From a speech given at the Woodrow Wilson International Center on August 1, 2007. How soon we forget!
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-070801obama,1,3928789.story?coll=chi_tab01_layout
January 4, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael Tomasky in The New York Review of Books also notes that Huckabee is pretty party line on the Iraq war and supports Bush sanctions on Iran. He's also quoted as using alarmingly evangelical rhetoric in support of the position, reminiscent of Bush's "crusade." That is, he talks of America's "culture of life" against the culture of the jihad.
Good article on conservatives generally, in fact. It makes the case that the three factions of the GOP coalition (neocons, theo-cons, and radical tax cutters) has held together quite well (thank you), with little dissent, explaining why the candidates can cough up the party line on them all. And Huckabee's 30 percent sales tax proposal boggles the mind.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
January 4, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although foreign policy is important for me (full disclosure: I'm an expat), I think the campaign is going to be fought on domestic issues.
However the world is going to intrude and I don't think any of the candidates on either side have any really good ideas on foreign affairs. Some, like Biden and Richardson are better informed, but ideas? Not really. Funny enough the only original thinkers are marginal players like Kucinich and Paul.
As to Pakistan. Obviously atomic Pakistan cannot be allowed to turn into a "failed state”, but a military solution is impossible today: it would require a multinational force of hundreds of thousands of men to take, occupy and rebuild a collapsed state of many millions of citizens. Something like Britain's decades long military occupation of tiny Northern Ireland, multiplied by a thousand.
Such an effort would surely require a return to universal military service in both the USA and NATO in order to be successful and that is political science fiction; an effort of such magnitude is unthinkable. Now when they might be needed desperately, the political capital, the military power and the will to use them are no longer at hand.
After all the sophistries and bad faith, the wasted lives and treasure used to needlessly invade Iraq and to unjustifiably threaten war with Iran, the west is “running on empty.”
In common speech, "nightmarish" often means to clearly see what is tragic and dreaded coming and not be able to do anything stop it or to even soften its effects. If someday 9-11 becomes little more than a curious footnote to much greater tragedies, the men and women who gutted the language and credibility of power will be held responsible.
I really don't think any of the field have answers to this, things are that badly screwed up.
http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/
January 4, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee has been to Taiwan four (4) times and met with President Chen Shui-bian and Foreign Ministers. As Governor he's championed Taiwan recognition in international orgs. I can only assume he's part of the dated evangelical mission to Christianize China. Not sure if he believes the whole take back Jerusalem from the East business but there is a strong belief among some evangelicals that the 'end times' will begin either in China or in a war between US and China. Of course, he told TIME that he wasn't that concerned with China.
"Where the bulk of the population cannot read, true democracy is impossible." -- Bertrand Russell
January 4, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe how sill most of this article and comments are. Of course, if Huckabee were elected he'd be a Bush conservative Republican in office and his foreign policy would be a seamless transition with Bush's.
You can't look at what he says NOW as any indication what he would do when surrounded by his inevitable neo-con cabinet advisers.
But, of course, he will never be nominated. He's the Republican's Howard Dean. There was no reason for the media and Democratic elites to go all out to destroy Dean and there's really no reason why the current insiders like Rush Limbaugh are viciously attacking Huckabee now.
But Dean's insurgent campaign put the fear of God into the Dem establishment and the media -- just as Huckabee's insurgency terrifies the Republican elites now.
They can't stand populism of any kind. It totally doesn't matter what Huckabee says or does. It's the idea of those terrible OUTSIDERS actually deciding who the President should be that scares the bejesus out of them all.
So, you'll see the media storm and conservative pundits rally around Romney or McCain going absolutely all out to destroy Huckabee in the next few weeks. And they'll pull him down like the media and D.C. establishment did Howard Dean.
January 4, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh William. You mention the "experience" of idealogues like Condoleezza Rice, Richard Armitage, Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney. You opine: "Whatever one thinks of their views (and I don't think much of them), there was no question that these were people with experience at crafting and implementing foreign and national security policies."
You still miss the point. The real point. The only point. It doesn't matter how much experience you have if your messianic, corporate fueled ideology blinds you to the most basic understanding of tradition, culture and history in places like the mid-east. That's what we call a no-brainer, a deal-breaker, game set and match. And there you go ... nattering on about experience.
There's no doubt Huckabee isn't qualified to be a competent president. But the bar has been lowered mightily, hasn't it? There's no need to resort to window dressing. Bush had a closet of idealogues posing as policy wonks. Huckabee has God. Neither "source of experience" knows how to broker truces, promote peace or encourage increased involvement in self-governing.
January 5, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink