1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Hillary

or

1. Edwards
2. Hillary
3. Obama

All three still neck-to-neck in both cases, with only very few percentage points apart from each other.

D: Obama | Clinton | Edwards | (

R: Romney | Huckabee | McCain | (

I think if the new post at EC is true, and Biden is throwing his supporters behind Obama we're going to see some separation, especially if Richardson follows which is the popular rumor. My guess:

Obama 38%
Edwards 33%
Clinton 27%
R.O.F. 2%

Obama 40%
Edwards 31%
Clinton 29%

I posted my predictions on my blog yesterday.

Then I was thinking Huckabee, Romney, Paul, McCain in Iowa. Looks like McCain might be surging and do better. If Romney gets kicked to third we can consider him done.

The more interesting question though is not what happens at the irrelevant caucus itself but the aftermath. Like the Politico I expect Thompson to be out after NH. We should also see the end of some of the other fringe candidates. Gravel, Dodd and Hunter should know that their goose is cooked. Keyes and Kucinich will do as baddly or worse but they make it clear that they are going to be in the race right up to the convention. So I expect that the next round of debates will have rather fewer faces.

I don't expect any front-runner to drop out after Iowa. Rudy will finish behind Paul and more importantly behind Thompson. If he finishes behind Paul in New Hampshire there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to quit.

If all the front runners are able to hang on to super-Tuesday its going to be really hard for any of them to win 51% of the delegates before the convention. If Romney and Giuliani both fold the race will be down to Huckabee vs McCain which McCain should quickly win.

All i know for sure is the voters(*)from Iowa
are very thoughtful and insightful: heard an
interview on NPR this morning of a person
getting ready to vote for Huckabee, primarily
because Huck plays bass in a "rock" (i can only
imagine) band.

(*)--republican

Hey, maybe someone can help me out with this. Can someone please tell me by what time tonight we should have results? By what time are official results available? By what time can we expect national news organizations to announce results based on exit polls (or do caucuses not have exit polls?) Thanks!

The Cranky Historian

D: Obama, Edwards, Clinton
R: Huckabee, Romney, McCain

Dem Analysis:

I don't think who wins Iowa is going to have much of an effect on anything, unless it's a >10 pt blowout. (That is only going to happen if Obama gets a massive turnout.) Winning by a few points isn't going to settle anything.

But can this still be a three-person race after Iowa? As a practical matter, I don't think it can. Neither Edwards, Clinton or Obama can afford to finish third.

Ignore who wins for a moment and just look at what happens for each if they come in last among the top-tier. If Edwards finishes third, his campaign is done. He's ten points behind in NH and a third place finish would cause him to bleed support to Obama, which would make him the clear favorite with only five days before the primary.

If Clinton or Obama finish third in Iowa, it will make it very tough for them to beat the other in NH just five days later. (Especially if the other wins Iowa.) If Obama finishes third he'll bleed support to Edwards, giving Clinton a comfortable victory. If Clinton finishes third, it's going to give Obama a lot of momentum in NH and probably a win, which will roll over into Nevada and then South Carolina.

I don't see how any of them can not win a primary before Super Tuesday and then come back to be viable on that day. The winner of Iowa probably won't decide anything, but who finishes third is going to set the stage for either Obama or Clinton to sweep NH, Nevada and SC. If that happens, it's game over. The Super Tuesday races on the fifth will be a formality because neither Clinton or Obama is going to come back from three losses and be a serious contender in 20 states on one day.

If one fades early and it becomes a race against Edwards, I can't see Edwards being able to win the national primary on the fifth, unless he runs the table in Iowa, NH, Nevada and SC - and either Hillary or Obama do something that destroys their own campaigns. Any takers?

Republican Analysis:

Man, what a train wreck. What do you want to compare the 2008 Republicans against, the 1972 Democrats? The 1932 Republicans? Regardless of the benchmark, the GOP is clearly in the middle of a collapse that will take a generation to repair.

I think Huckabee is going to win tonight, and I think he'll win the nomination. Republicans don't like or trust Romney, and they never will. The villagers, as Atrios calls the beltway pundit society, are cheering madly for McCain but he has no money, organization or hope beyond New Hampshire. (I'm not even sure he'll win NH because I can't see independents voting for him given the anti-war sentiment there.) Rudy bet his entire campaign on dominating the South. Even a really weak native son candidate has crushed that plan, and Rudy's hopes.

The only major roadblock I see between Huckabee and the nomination is if the Republican establishment can get support to rally around Romney as the anti-Huck (Hick?) choice. But that brings its own set of problems, notably a full-blown civil war in the GOP between the establishment and the fundamentalists. If the conservative establishment spends six months wailing on Huckabee, can you imagine what that is going to do to the GOP? Minneapolis might well be like Miami in 1972.

As a practical matter, I don't think it can. Neither Edwards, Clinton or Obama can afford to finish third.

I think it's strikingly wrong to think that bad performances in any of the early primaries will kill Hillary. She's got tons of money and organization. She has the example of her husband, who lost five or six primaries and caucuses before winning one, and don't think she won't play that up. She's going to be a lot harder to take out than that, especially if it's really fucking close in Iowa, as it looks likely to be.

dorman4

I think independents will carry Senator Obama to victory and the impact of nonvialbility and "2nd choice" will work against Sen Clinton as Richardson, Biden, and Dodd supporters are more likey to support Senator Obama or former Senator Edwards. There's a strong possibility that Hillary could come in third which will have repercussions in New Hampshire. The Iowa victory would propel Obama to a win in New Hampshire where he is already close and the question would then be whether Hilary Clinton can rebound. She would have the money but how will the media react?

I have long thought that former Governor Huckabee would emerge as a viable candidate for the Republican nomination because I could not see the GOP as presently constituted selecting Guiliani, Romney or McCain. I thought Iowa would be Huckabee territory based on what Pat Roberston did there in 1988. The evangelicals are stronger now and Huckabee's genial personality and likeability gives him the opportunity to broaden his support beyond just the Religious Right. As far as foreign policy issues go, how much did W's ignorance hurt him with the Republican electorate? I think the interesting question in Iowa for Republicans more so than Democrats (Democrats are motivated to turn out and will attract the majority of independents and even some Republicans) is whether Huckabee's supporters will attend the caucuses without a strong Huckabee organization, and whether Romney's stong organization, money and negative advertising will be enough. When I think of Romney supporters the phrase "You can fool some of the people all of the time" comes to mind.

dorman4

I wouldn't be surprised if Ron Paul finishes third tonight based on the committment of his hard core supporters and the liklihood of a relatively small Republican turnout. While this will be an interesting storyline, it obviously won't propel Paul to anything more than a nuisance candidate but it would severly cripple anyone (except perhaps McCain who has the media swooning) who come behind Paul. Paul could continue indefinitely mucking up Republican debates ala Alan Keyes, Reverand Al and Dennis the Menance.

D: Edwards, Clinton, Obama
R: Romney, Huckabee, McCain

It's obviously all going to depend on the second choices, but I have trouble seeing the lower tier Dems breaking for Clinton or Obama. Edwards seems to be the second choice for most of them, and along with his reportedly excellent groundwork campaign techniques, he'll pull it off. The difference between Clinton and Obama will be negligible (and might well be reversed from my predicted order), but the media will expound upon it breathlessly.

The Republicans... I just don't know. The lower tiers being Paul, Thompson, and Guiliani, I don't see Huckabee soaking up enough of them. Romney I think will take it in a squeaker, more or less by default, and McCain will have a solid third showing. It'll depend a lot on what Ron Paul's people do (I'm betting sit in a corner holding their breath until they get more supporters or pass out). Then again, never underestimate the ability of evangelicals to turn out. I wouldn't be shocked if Huckabee took it, but I think Romney holds on by a hair. But I think Romney will be flattened in NH and NV and SC.

Sometimes patriotism means you take it up the ass, apparently. --Goats

I like to game this out a bit.
First scenario, the one that I would LIKE to see is this:

Edwards
Obama
Clinton

Why? Because the media will finally have to acknowledge that Edwards is for real and it will boost him in NH. Edwards needs a close second there no matter what. Clinton will fade and possibly lose NH if this happens in IA. Swapping second and third between Clinton and Obama doesn't really do anything but make it harder to beat Clinton in NH.

Second scenario:

Clinton
Edwards
Obama

This seals the nomination for Hillary. 2nd and 3rd don't matter.

Third scenario:

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

Clinton fades and Obama gains in NH. Edwards is likely toast in any scenario that he doesn't win. Swapping Edwards and Clinton in 2nd and 3rd here makes Edwards fade even faster and makes NH a tossup because it really won't hurt Hillary very much to get second in IA.

Finally, on the Republican side, I can only say that Ron Paul is going to do better than expected in third.

The Orange Bowl with Kansas and Virginia Tech will be in the second half, siphoning off lots of football fans who aren't that committed to politics (first-timers, students and independents?). Also, I don't think too many voters will make their second choices based on what various campaigns tell them to do. Iowans seem more independent than that, so:

Edwards
Clinton
Obama

Huckabee
Romney
McCain

"Senator Larry Craig Goes Down to Iowa"
www.ilovepoetry.com/viewpoem.asp?id=94289
Eyes on the BIG prize?

I predict that no matter what happens, Joe Klein will find some way of criticizing John Edwards for being "angry."

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

My hope is that Edwards will get the nod. I think he can do it. He has the experience of caucusing in Iowa. He did damn well in 2004. I was there for Dean (as a volunteer working on the ground for weeks prior to and on the big night). The Edwards' supporters came out of the woodwork the last couple of days prior to the caucus. They were determined and relentless. How Kerry won Iowa, I don't know. I thought it would be Dean. Then the last couple of days, my thought was that it would be Edwards and then Dean. So, needless to say, my track record is lousy with picking the winner in Iowa. But, for what it's worth, I do think Edwards can do it. Then Obama. Then Hillary.

Leave no trace upon the Earth but the footprints of your compassion and the echoes of your laughter.

Obama, Edwards, Clinton. (34, 27, 27)
Huckster, Romney, McCain (32,31,30)

Actually going to a caucus and standing up in front of your neighbors and declaring a political preference is not comfortable for many Iowans who do not like to wear their politics or religion on their sleeve. That is why so many candidates have failed to significantly expand the base of caucus voters in the past. Responding to polling questions on the phone, responding to canvassers at your door and even going to campaign events and filling out support cards does not consistently translate to actual caucus participation.

Edwards – 30% Obama – 27% Clinton – 23% Dodd – 10%

Clinton wins, Edwards second. Because it is generally the hardcore Democrats who actually show up at caucuses, and they support Clinton. Who cares what the GOP results are?

Hoppy in Sacramento

Edwards will be first, unless hoppy is right about the hardcores/Clinton supporters... in any case should Clinton will it will strenghten the potential anti-Clinton backlash in NH. Edwards will win in NH. Obama will be just behind Edwards.

On the R side, McCain will surprise everyone in both IA and NH and finish second or a very close 3rd.

Oh hell, I think I'll go watch No Country for Old Men. Sounds like it must be good.

DEMOCRATS
Biden 2%
Clinton 31%
Dodd 1.7%
Edwards 34%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich .8%
Obama 28%
Richardson 2.5%

REPUBLICANS
Giuliani 5%
Huckabee 36%
Hunter 2%
McCain 18%
Paul 5%
Romney 29%
Thompson 5%

Henry

BobFred is right, leaning towards a candidate and answering a poll does not make a person a caucus attendee. I think there are a lot of Reagan Democrat-types out there who not be caucusing. It will be interesting to see who really shows up.

Dems:
Obama-Edwards-Clinton

All the news of second tier candidates shifting to Obama suggests a likely comfortable margin for Obama. The weather is nice, and favorable for a record turnout to match the record Iowa expenditures. The DMR/Selzer poll was first to spot the likelihood of an unprecedented turnout, including record numbers of Independents in the Dem caucus, and the trend seems more convincing today. I guess we'll see tonight. If Obama does win, and the results show he did mobilize a considerable volume of independent, it seems hard to imagine him losing NH. From there, South Carolina will fall for Obama as well. Beyond SC, I couldn't possibly predict. I do think Clinton will still be very well positioned for the nomination, even after losing IA-NH-SC. Her campaign will experience a revival in time for Tsunami Tuesday, leading to a close, pitched battle for delegates beyond Feb 5th. Edwards will be long gone at this point, after thirds in NH and SC.

Repubs:
Romney, Huckabee, McCain

McCain wins NH? Seems likely, but I'm less confident of my insight into this field.

edit: upping the ante with some actual values

Obama 36%
Edwards 25.5%
Clinton 24.5%
Biden 8%
Richardson 5%
Dodd 1%
Other

I think Biden will leave Iowa with the top three, vying for that silver medal on the Obama or Edwards ticket.

Everywhere I look I see polls, predictions, experts, TV, newspapers, blogs; its like the Death of a Thousand Cuts! ARGH!!!!!

'I predict' that I'll be taken to the looney bin before all this is over.

One word: Gravel.

Just kidding.

Whatever happens, I do hope that Hillary's "inevitability" theme gets shattered, if only to hear the teevee punditricians have to grasp for another narrative for a while.

Edwards: 41%
Obama: 34%
Clinton: 25%

Obama and Edwards are surging at the end, but I think Edwards' experienced caucus goers and strength in rural areas will give him the edge. This cycle, I don't think the deal making for 2nd choice have as much impact as in 2004. There's a much greater understanding of the policy differences and most of all for the need for clarity of message. Obama's verbal constructions are quite elegant--too much so for most people. This is a campaign for the hearts and minds of middle America, not a law school lecture. Too, Democrats have tried the mushy middle route and lost before.

Noticed on TPM front page today:

"Zogby Poll: Hillary Drops to Third in Iowa

ARG Poll: Hillary Still Ahead in Iowa"

Yep, its like mass dementia.

It is just possible that Iowans will chose an Alaskan instead of a woman or an African American to be the party's "first" this time around. Now that would inject a lot of much needed energy to the Democratic Primaries.

Hoppy in Sacramento

Might as well make this fun.

Obama = 44
Edwards = 35
Clinton = 20
other = 1

Final Results for the Dems with 1781 of 1781 precincts reporting:

Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%
Senator John Edwards : 29.75%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%