Agonizing Over the Candidates and Who They Really Are
Will Hillary Clinton really keep stroking the most anti-Castro crazed elder generation of Miami's Cuban-American community? Or will she look at the demographic and polling data that show that most Cuban-Americans want a new course in US-Cuba relations, particularly with regard to travel to and from Cuba for Cuban-American families?
Some near Hillary Clinton tell me that given Fidel Castro's recent hint that he is moving from the front line of Cuba's political machine to a row further back (or up) in order to make way for a new generation of leaders, she is considering a full-scale policy review of her stated US-Cuba policy (i.e., potentially changing her position away from embracing the Bush administration's direction in US-Cuba relations).
This would be good -- but the bottom line is that we are forced to guess about what she might do and don't have certainty about what she will do.
Will Barack Obama tilt more towards campaign advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's vision of tough-minded calculation of how to re-sculpt America's place in the world or will he tilt more towards the priorities of his other campaign advisor Anthony Lake?
Lake is actively promulgating a "Concert of Democracies" initiative that seems to ignore the fundamental reality that American power has deteriorated and that most of the challenging problems ahead are with areas of the world where democrats and democracies are practically non-existent. This isn't to say that a Concert of Democracies doesn't have some appeal as a sideshow at some point -- but it does little to re-establish a stable global equilibrium and to get America's national security portfolio on a positive rather than destructive course.
Obama was brave and visionary in suggesting an alternative course for US-Cuba relations. One could think that his willingness to think out of the box and to escape the incrementalism of the current strategic class and the vested interests of today's national security circumstances would be worth embracing and supporting.
But then what happened when the next opportunity came to show the same sort of boldness Obama did on Cuba? Obama, Clinton, Edwards, and nearly all of the candidates -- except perhaps Biden and Christopher Dodd and the non-candidate Chuck Hagel -- went silent during the Annapolis Peace Summit which drew together most of the Arab world, the P-5 nations, Israel, and many European and Southeast Asian nations in an effort to restart negotiations between Israel and Palestine over their long-term standoff. They all went silent as best I could tell.
I agree completely with Zbigniew Brzezinski that America's "defining challenge" in this era is its challenge in the Middle East -- and that not to get America back in a situation where it can help birth a cascading set of positive trends will ultimately turn America into a 'hegemonic has-been' (although the trend may be irreversible). The fact that the leading Democrat contenders had nothing to say about the Annapolis Summit raises legitimate questions about whether they have the commitment and wherewithal to tackle the complexity of America's defining challenge in this era.
John McCain and all of the leading Democrats are all clearly anti-torture while Mitt Romney has been working hard embracing George Bush's tough brinksmanship on Iran and recommended doubling Guantanamo. At the same time, Romney's national security adviser has written articles suggesting that America must engage Syria. In fact, Romney's national security team is about as pro-engagement with some of the world's trouble-making regimes as Obama said he would be during the debates.
But this begs the question of who is the real Mitt Romney and what would the real Mitt Romney do in the Middle East or anywhere else? It's hard to say with confidence.
Ron Paul is the less cluttered and complex version of Jack Murtha -- completely anti-war and wants America's military engagement in Iraq to end now.
Paul is attracting anti-war Republicans and Democrats far beyond the libertarian base that he would normally draw from. He is attracting a lot of progressives who believe in global justice, want the war over, and want to return to a benign American model rather than a view where America is the dangerous destabilizer of the international system.
But then Ron Paul shocks this crowd by running an advertisement that is as hostile to immigration that I have ever seen. He actually has a shocking, Jesse Helmsian line, that outdoes anything that Rudy Giuliani has said: "No more visas for students from terrorist nations." This kind of position would appeal to those buying John Bolton's new book as a Christmas present and who are reverential to the kind of pugnacious hyper-nationalism that Dick Cheney manifests.
Who then is the real Ron Paul?
I could go on in a similar way about Edwards, about Giuliani, even about Huckabee -- who flip-flopped and was pro-economic engagement with Cuba when Arkansas' Governor and now is harsher than George W. Bush when running for President.
One can do this with all of the candidates.
The fact is that no matter who emerges at the top in the coming set of primaries and caucuses, we aren't going to know the real candidate. . .perhaps ever. All of these candidates are vessels for the interests and perspectives that surround them.
I remember sitting in the kitchen of a very close friend who is one of John McCain's closest personal advisers. This friend was deeply disturbed by McCain's speech at Liberty University and his triangulation on the the war and the Bush administration, designed to try to court the Republican "establishment" that Bush and Cheney presided over.
But this person who knows McCain better than most made the point that sometimes the "person" that the candidate is just doesn't matter all that much -- at some point, the candidate becomes a franchise of so many interests and perspectives, sometimes in internal conflict with one another, that what the candidate really thinks or feels becomes less important.
That is why I spend a lot of time looking at advisers, funders, and other interests that surround these candidates. Each is somewhat of a free trade zone unto himself or herself for political interests vying to steer him or her this way or that.
It's lousy that this is the case -- but it is, and we need to be engaged as American citizens in trying to compel the candidates one direction or another -- and to punish or reward based on the positions that they are occasionally brave enough to articulate.
I'm personally sick of platitudes from the candidates.
I want to see pragmatism and steely-eyed commitment to solutions-oriented efforts on both America's domestic and international fronts. I want to see some evidence of sensible judgment. I want to see someone who has an understanding of where incremental trends are taking the nation and some Acheson-like wizardry in re-imagining a different set of global and domestic arrangements (with detail) that can help the country leapfrog out of the morass it is in into a better, sustainable position.
It is really easy to understand why most of the candidates have not captured a decisive edge in the competitions ahead. Few of them want to sculpt in fine detail their political and policy personas and want to remain blurry.
They want us to guess what they might do -- and some of us who turn our guesses into votes for an ultimate winner will still find ourselves disappointed that the reasons we supported this or that candidate got shelved in the end.
Despite all of the drama of this campaign process, when I think this through, I can very easily constrain my enthusiasm for any of the candidates.
-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note















Thanks a lot. You know, I've never been as critical of Gore for the image he got in 2000 as many are, but even he caved to the Miami community just before the election on the child who'd washed ashore. I could argue for either side on something like that, but the pandering was obvious. Single-issue minorities are hard to shake, and one reason I'd love better relations with Cuba is that this one would quickly become irrelevant.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
December 30, 2007 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've spent about a month in Iowa over the last year including a week spent with family over the holidays and I'd say you've captured the spirit of the Iowans I know from the far right to far left and everywhere in between.
What I sense more than anything from everyone is a desire for change and doubt that any of the candidates are up to the task. I find no enthusiasm at all for Hillary. A few are invested in her machine but no one really seems invested in her. Many are attracted to Obama but doubt he has the experience. Some are in harmony with Edwards' message but don't believe he can go the distance. The Republicans are disillusioned with every candidate and I sense are disillusioned by their message. Even the most far right family values cousin of all seemed more impressed with the odd-ball sincerity of Kucinich than with all the Elmer Gantrys the Republicans are trying out.
I sense populism out there folks and a populace looking for a message and a messenger and not finding one. What I don't sense is any interest in American greatness or its place in the world. I see people looking inward trying to figure out who they are and who we are as a country.
When will someone turn up to focus that sense of unease?
December 30, 2007 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. I'm shocked! shocked! that a wonderful populist like you would refer to Kucinich as having "odd-ball sincerity". He makes a lot of sense to me. But, hey, that's not much of a referral.
2. Isn't it a shame that "don't believe he can go the distance" becomes a factor in voting.
December 30, 2007 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beware of Brzezinski. He is the one who started the idea that we needed to support the mujahadeen in Afghanistan.
December 30, 2007 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. He said right out that then, the Afghan Russian war, was America's chance to give Russia its Viet Nam.
Short-sidedness is an affliction which seems to plague politicians, policy wonks and the likes of Bill Kristol. I'm convinced that mature, reasoning people avoid politics with a vengeance because politicians are not by nature mature or capable of reasoning and thus are painful to be around. (But they are good at buying elections.)
December 30, 2007 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't he also earlier dismiss fears over the rise of Islamic extremism?
December 30, 2007 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe if we started facing up to the lies that we've been telling ourselves and the rest of the world for decades our politicians could do the same.
Posing as the champions of democracy, foreinstance, when we're really champions of capitalism would be a start. How many cruel dictators, hardly into democracy, have we supported and continue to support if they promise not to go socialist - as we continue to advertise our devotion to the democratization of the world.
And then there's health care which the rest of the western world has figured out how to make work under a single payer system but we can't figure it out? Bull.
Delusion or illusion, it boils down to politicians will only tell the truth when we all quit lying to ourselves.
December 30, 2007 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zbigniew Brzezinski is a clown! Speaking earnestly with a foreign accent doesn't a Kissinger make.
The Middle East story is old and worn; it's raised whenever one has nothing to say. There are at least five more important issues and climate control and the international implications of it are way more important.
Can we, at this late hour, start and deal with details instead of Zbigniew Brzezinski type sound bytes?
December 30, 2007 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Kissinger is also a clown.
December 30, 2007 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't Jerry Bremer one of Kissinger's boys? Bremer was the guy who fired the entire Iraqi Army after just 24 hours on the ground as Head Clown for Bush/Cheney.
December 30, 2007 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kissinger may be evil, but wise and knowledgeable enough. Bush and Cheney are evil, but Cheney is quite intelligent. Zbig is not!
December 31, 2007 4:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
we are forced to guess about what she might do and don't have certainty about what she will do.
Will Barack Obama tilt more towards campaign advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's vision
They want us to guess what they might do
So we're stuck worrying about what the next Decider will decide. We really haven't gotten anywhere, have we. All that democracy that was supposedly temporarily sidetracked by Bush has been permanently derailed, according to the musing of Steve Clemons.
There is a belief in some quarters that seems to be spreading, and that is that the Congress is merely responsible for domestic affairs and the Commander-in-Chief, the Decider, the Dictator, the reincarnation of King George III, or whatever you might call The Supreme Leader is responsible for determining foreign policy. (An off-shoot of this is that politics stops at the water's edge.) Reinforcing this myth are people like Steve Clemons who are helping to destroy American democracy.
Concert of Democracies, indeed. Would the US qualify? Apparently not.
ecotourism
WeGoEco.com
December 30, 2007 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don,
I was watching a doc on ancient Rome today, and your post hits the nail on the head.
When one man controls the military, bad things always happen. This is precisely why the founders implemented a policy to prevent just that.
One must ask the question: has the US already crossed the Rubicon, or are we merely at "the water's edge?"
December 30, 2007 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Those who are to conduct a war cannot in the nature of things, be proper or safe judges, whether a war ought to be commenced, continued, or concluded. They are barred from the latter functions by a great principle in free government, analogous to that which separates the sword from the purse, or the power of executing from the power of enacting laws".--James Madison
December 30, 2007 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's inflammatory rhetoric on Pakistan this August, threatening to attack Pakistan--pre-emptively--sealed it for me. He stated that he would not only deploy US troops to Pakistan, a Muslim, nuclear powder keg ("The first step must be getting off the wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan"), but also that he would violate its national sovereignty if Musharraf failed to root out terrorists ("If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will").
Check out his rhetoric: http://www.barackobama.com/2007/08/01/the_war_we_need_to_win.php
Obviously, Pakistani civilians were livid and terrified of such a policy. And yet this rhetoric goes without even a mention, let alone scrutiny in the press or on blogs. Just today Obama was on Meet the Press and Russert allowed him to boast of his foreign policy "judgment," especially in light of the Bhutto assassination!
I was leaning towards Edwards before, but now I'm certain.
December 30, 2007 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely! The Pakistani war by Obama suddenly clarified to me that Obama is simply a fraud! Despite Edwards, he isn't nice. He invented the empty phrase change, which means absolutely nothing. He even said, 2 days ago, that he'll bring change the way he alway has. What? This guy got to be in forties without leaving a mark. His only claim to fame is the invention of the present vote. Does it remind you of another fraud named Bush?
So many people tend in his direction with a tin ear to everything he says. I, too, am an avid Edwards supporter, but Obama wins a lot of vote from Hillary hatred among the left-wing (conspiracy); those people hated Bill almost as much as the right wing except that the left hated his compromises.
I hope, for the good of the progressive movement, that Iowa buries Obama; I don't hold my breath though. After all, Iowa chose Kerry.
December 31, 2007 4:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what Steve Clemons says about Brzezenski: "Brzezinski is one of the greatest strategic minds alive today and does understand the need to make changes in policy today to generate different outcomes tomorrow."
Here's "one of the greatest strategic minds" in a 1998 interview: "What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?"
Steve Clemons asks: "Will Barack Obama tilt more towards campaign advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's vision . . .or will he tilt more towards the priorities of his other campaign advisor Anthony Lake . . .[who] is actively promulgating a "Concert of Democracies" initiative"?
There is no evidence of a "Brzezinski vision" in the links provided by Steve Clemons, unless you include his idea that the US should negotiate with Syria and Iran a la Baker/Hamilton. I wouldn't call that a "vision", myself.
The "Concert of Democracies" originated in a paper written by G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter and published by Princeton University in 2006. The paper includes the following comment: "Candid conversations with Zbigniew Brzezinski and Madeleine Albright were critical to shaping the final report", and Brzezinski is listed as an individual who "participated in project conferences, working groups or meetings, or contributed project papers."
Anthony Lake was one of the honorary co-chairs of the Princeton Project and was also listed as a contributor.
Forging A World Of Liberty Under Law
U.S. National Security In The 21st Century
September 27, 2006
http://www.wws.princeton.edu/ppns/report/FinalReport.pdf.
So where's the difference? Anybody see what the options are for an Obama tilting? Where's the Brzezenski/Lake divide?
December 30, 2007 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anthony Lake seems to be the focus of some bloggers' "comcerns" about Obama's FP advisors. Larry Johnson was briefed by a Clinton person that Lake was the "bonehead" who suggested Jim Woolsey as head of the CIA and one of Col Pat Lang's anti-Obama posts centered around the notion that Obama might be a closet "interventionist". Johnson had also included Lang as one of those briefed.
Lake has stated that he has no interest in a future Obama administration so one wonders where all this alarm about his influence is coming from. Could it be due to the bad blood between Lake and Richard Holbrooke or the fact that he was a long-time Clinton insider who has defected?
I would be more concerned that Obama advisor Dennis Ross would have influence on I/P issues and push the pardon of Jonathan Pollard if Bush doesn't produce. Bruce Reidel is another advisor who is worrisome in that he is ready to believe all evils attributed to Iran and considers the release of the recent NIE an "embarrassment" to our British and Israeli friends. Reidel was also on the defense subpeona list in the upcoming AIPAC trial.
and I say the above as an Obama supporter.
Frankly, in the large scheme of things, Hillary's position on Cuba pales in importance to the questions of our relationships to countries in the ME. Her FP advisors are no improvement if one wants to see radical policy changes. There's a damn good reason why Shmuel Rosner's team of Israeli experts have consistantly rated Clinton as the best Dem candidate (Obama is near the bottom) when it comes to how she would relate to Israeli interests. The majority of those polled favor the no US pressure position on I/P issues and hawkish attitudes to Iran.
No thanks. With Hillary, I'm afraid we would get more of the SOS when it comes to the ME.
December 31, 2007 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
My agony over the candidates has led me to decide to give my vote to the candidate who is doing something useful Now and taking risks that show Leadership during the campaign. McCain and Obama made the first cut, but it really seems Ron Paul and John Edwards are the only two who aren’t delivering the status quo message on a different platter or hedging much. I lean more towards Edwards’ views, so that leaves Edwards.
Edwards is using the campaign to educate the electorate about how and why special interest control is the main cause of our broken government. Some candidates will touch on this a little, then back off . Edwards isn’t backing off. It’s his central message, he’s not afraid and he acknowledges that none of his –or anybody else’s--ideas will amount to anything if we allow special interests to continue their rule on the hill.
Although voters don’t need Edwards or any other candidate’s permission to get together and stop voting for candidates who take special interest money, at least he’s telling the most important truth.
I thought Edwards started out weaker, but his speeches now sound like they are coming from a person fighting for something he believes in. He might have tripped over this cause on that road that has led so many to suffer as slaves to special interests. However, he sounds like he’s after the power and benefits that come with leadership and lifting people up.
Edwards is hammering on the only door to positive change—though I will always remember that John McCain was the first to have the courage to do this. So unless Edwards backs down, I may just vote for a candidate I did not take too seriously when the campaign began.
December 31, 2007 6:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree completely with Zbigniew Brzezinski that America's "defining challenge" in this era is its challenge in the Middle East -- and that not to get America back in a situation where it can help birth a cascading set of positive trends will ultimately turn America into a 'hegemonic has-been' (although the trend may be irreversible).
American hegemony was a by-product of the convulsive global changes brought about by the Second World War, during which the US was able to use its relative geographical security in the western hemisphere to build a powerful military-industrial state. In the aftermath of the war this state machinery, built for war-fighting, was transitioned to Cold War purposes, and the extensive national security and intelligence apparatus created to meet emergency wartime needs was cemented in place, and even extended. The devastation wrought by the war throughout Europe made it easy for the US to establish leadership of the western coalition, build a consensus around that leadership and expand its power. And the new national security state generated powerful corporate and governmental interests, combining into a peculiar economic interest of enormous, and seemingly unstoppable, influence. It also created a class of intellectuals and technocrats whose education is organized around the service and maintenance of this state.
But with each passing day the old postwar order disintegrates further, and along with it many of the external and internal motives supporting the coherence and dynamism of the postwar national security state. There is no common unifying purpose or obvious common enemy of sufficiently imposing size and importance, despite efforts of the ruling class and partisans of the old order to manufacture one: “Islamofascism”, “democratic enlargement” etc. If this loss of coherence and fragmentation of purpose means an end to the era of American hegemony, then perhaps it’s about time.
But what can come next? What is needed is a new internationalism to combat political, social and economic challenges on a global scale, and prevent the disintegration of what currently exists of a global community into a nationalistic, mercantilist order with states acting on behalf of narrow, local interest. And by “new internationalism” I don’t mean quite the same thing as the "liberal internationalism" beloved by parts of the American ruling class. The latter is just a name for hegemony-by-alliance, an America-centered western liberal order which relies on a multilateral network of vassals and lesser nobility – or capos and lieutenants if you prefer – to support that order. It is organized behind a program of perpetual expansion of the liberal world-system, the support for private capital’s restless pattern of greed, exploitation and accumulation by dispossession, and aggressive confrontation of both weak and powerful states that lie outside that order.
What we need is American participation in a global social movement to build a new framework of international political and economic institutions, geared toward the challenges of 2008, not those of 1945, and truly reflecting the interests of all of the world’s people, not just the interests of citizens of the affluent liberal states. Americans need to turn more of their political attentions to the global crucible, and begin to think more about organizing and participating in transnational parties and movements; calling global parliaments; establishing multinational regulatory mechanisms and a new, more egalitarian economic order; and creating security and policing structures that consist of more than just a few troops and helicopters on loan from the national armed forces that retain all of the sovereign control, and which are at the same time using those assets to project and apply muscle in the competitive global gang war for power, wealth and territory.
Participation in national politics is obviously a vital activity, but should be increasingly regarded as analogous to participation in local and state politics. Americans have to begin to think about political organization and mobilization in broader global terms, and develop a stronger sense of identity as members of globally extended, extra-national communities. They need to seek out and demand new transnational media that do not cover all events from the standpoint of parochial American interests. They need to strengthen affective, sentimental attachments to communities and movements that extend beyond the United States, and not limit their political affections to the totems, anthems and myths of American political culture. They need to see to it that their children learn several languages, and encourage extensive social networking with people abroad. Perhaps they might think about flying a UN flag alongside their US flag.
I think most of us have a pretty fair notion already about what are the most pressing global needs and challenges. But here is my own top ten list:
1. Environmental protection and restoration.
2. Promoting and preserving the global peace, including peace among nations and civil peace within nations.
3. Enhancing energy security, and promoting and managing the global transition to a more efficient, clean and sustainable energy system.
4. Reform of the global financial system.
5. Reform of the global media order.
6. The promotion of sustainable global development, and general prosperity under economic systems founded on principles of equality, and conducive to the preservation of equality.
7. Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, as well as disarmament and demilitarization in conventional areas.
8. Combating the trafficking in weapons, harmful drugs and human beings.
9. The promotion of artistic, intellectual and cultural exchange; and promotion of social conditions conducive to the widespread flourishing of human potential, and broad and equal access to the experiences of artistic beauty, natural beauty and spiritual refinement.
10. Defense of fundamental human rights of fair and equal justice, speech, conscience, assembly and political participation.
December 31, 2007 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dan, the "new internationalism" you call for is a noble cause, and may I add to your excellent appeal by directing the attention of those who want to follow this call to a thinker and writer whom I admire greatly, one who thinks similar thoughts. Helena Cobban, a Quaker, may be found at 'Just World News'. "Info, analysis, discussion-- to build a more just world".
Ms. Cobban, a prolific author, has just written a wonderful piece on her blog: "2008: The year of 'Human Security'?" Check it out. Military power (an obsession with US presidential candidates) neglects human security, and "looking at security as something that militaries can bring about is to fundamentally misunderstand the age we live in", according to Cobban.
"An end to the era of American hegemony", the world hegemony which actually started in 1898 with war against the Spanish and was initiated in order to take Americans' concerns off domestic matters while building power and profit. It has been useful ever since in those regards. The government that was established to protect out rights, our 'human security' if you will, has instead used Americans for 'national security', an entirely different interest and one antithetical to American human rights. National security is mainly involved in power and profit, whereas human security is mainly involved in the historic rights of "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness", a solemn promise of the document that birthed our nation.
Irregardless of who is nominated this new year, we should all concentrate in taking our country back, the country full of promise for its people that the Founders gave so much for, a country which (we hope) no longer seeks power and treasure abroad but which will provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.
Happy New Year everyone! May you get all your wishes but one, so you always have something to strive for. (Irish proverb)
January 1, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
tlees2 said:
The actual quote [ from How Jimmy Carter and I Started the Mujahideen: Interview of Zbigniew Brzezinski Le Nouvel Observateur (France),
Jan 15-21, 1998, p. 76*
Q: The former director of the CIA,Robert Gates, stated in his memoirs ["From the Shadows"], that American intelligence services began to aid the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan 6 months before the Soviet intervention. In this period you were the national security adviser to President Carter. You therefore played a role in this affair. Is that correct?
Brzezinski: Yes. According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise: Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention.
Q: Despite this risk, you were an advocate of this covert action. But perhaps you yourself desired this Soviet entry into war and looked to provoke it?
Brzezinski: It isn't quite that. We didn't push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would.
Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn't believe them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don't regret anything today?
Brzezinski: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter: We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.
Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Islamic [integrisme], having given arms and advice to future terrorists?
Brzezinski: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?
Q: Some stirred-up Moslems? But it has been said and repeated: Islamic fundamentalism represents a world menace today.
Brzezinski: Nonsense! It is said that the West had a global policy in regard to Islam. That is stupid. There isn't a global Islam. Look at Islam in a rational manner and without demagoguery or emotion. It is the leading religion of the world with 1.5 billion followers. But what is there in common among Saudi Arabian fundamentalism, moderate Morocco, Pakistan militarism, Egyptian pro-Western or Central Asian secularism? Nothing more than what unites the Christian countries.
December 31, 2007 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Back in 1956 I decided not to vote for Stevenson because I thought something he said in the campaign was unjustified and unfair. Since then my position has been that a campaign is a campaign: every candidate is going to say something that won't be up to my standards, no candidate is going to be perfect, my responsibility is to make an overall judgment with respect to which candidate is overall preferable, and it's likely that there will be plenty of evidence in advance of the campaign as to which it is.
At a very low level, people talk about the campaign being a test of character: nonsense, if the voters were any judge of character, Bush wouldn't have been elected even once, let alone twice. (Even I didn't know how bad his character was back in 2000, I merely voted against him because I'm an issues-oriented liberal; but he got re-elected by a real majority when everyone should have known what kind of person he is.)
At a (slightly) higher level, I find two kinds of positions both foolishness:
Some people think both the Republican candidates and the Democratic candidates are too partisan, too extreme; and
Some people think there isn't enough difference between the Dems and the Repubs to matter.
Both of these are silly. There is an issue of judgment here; and judgments are based on huge amounts of information which if one goes to the trouble of laying them out still can be responded to by someone with very bad judgment laying out another long piece with selected pieces of info which lead to a wrong conclusion. (The fool is married to his dogma.) I'm too lazy to argue for my judgments, I just deliver them.
My own finding is that the Republican candidates are a lot of really awful people with a varied lot of really awful policy positions. Giuliani is the worst of the lot, on character and foreign policy advisor choice grounds, while McCain is in my view the slightly least evil of the lot -- at least he would be preferable with respect to torture. (If I lived in NH instead of MA, I would consider crossing over to vote for him, just to hedge my bets, especially if Giuliani seemed to be running well.) On the other hand, I consider any of the Democratic candidates acceptable. It appears to me that reasonable evaluations of any of them would be in the range of mediocre to decent -- I will in 2008 vote for the Democrat, regardless of who or she is, without a moment's hesitation, and I will have contributed monies after the nomination which I am largely holding back for now.
I try to tune out campaigns, because they contribute more noise than enlightenment. However, I must say that a number of the Democratic candidates have advanced policy proposals which I consider quite constructive. Assessing the policy advisors is the right thing to do -- but I get the impression that comparing the advisor choices of the Republicans versus the Democrats gives a pretty clearcut overall answer. For the present, I've made quite minor contributions to Edwards. I may later make a decision on electability grounds, but I don't think I'm terribly good at assessing that.
December 31, 2007 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I apologize for this long quote, but I tried to pick out sections and I couldn't. From Gary Hart at Huffington Post:
> Gary Hart: I can never understand why he gave it up for a bimbo. He is a brilliant man!Jan
December 31, 2007 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hart seemed a lot more brilliant to me before he signed on with a billionaire in an attempt to ram the establishment status quo down our throats and foreclose what tiny chance there is for genunine progressive reform. If any of those "bipartisan" types believed in one word of their message they would have been out there advocating a bipartisan override of the S-CHIP veto. They are a bunch of frauds.
January 1, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dan K wrote:
Excellent summary of where America is today, although I feel compelled to add two points neglected here, that Dan K. does cover later in his ten challenges. But it is important to develop some sense of importance in his very good list.
1. It was the development of the atomic bomb and the decision to use it to establish hegemony and World Empire that is at the heart of the problem. For those not familiar with the development of the bomb, and under the illusion that it was used to "save American lives", please educate yourself.
As phelicity said:
The US not only went ahead with both the development and deployment of the bomb despite objections at LANL (it would not even share info with the UK), seeing an opportunity to use what the CFR now calls nuclear primacy to "rule the world". Despite UN Resolution Number One, addressing the nuclear problem the US chose instead to mislead the public and the world on the nature of the problem, attempting to monopolize the weapon for itself, believing it could maintain its nuclear primacy indefinitely, or at least as Andrew Marshall advocated, until Russia fell and before China rises to wage a winnable nuclear war. The record of all this. through the "Committee on the Present Danger", DOD Sect/ Charles Wilson (different from the Tx Rep on Charlie Wilson's War) "New Look Policy" to the "Delicate Balance of Power" of Albert Wohlstetter (Mentor of Pearle, Wolfowitz, Abrams, Pipes, et al) has been clearly exposed, if one looks.. During the Agnew resignation and impending impeachment of Nixon, Haig's deal giving us the Ford (aka as the Princeton or Rumsfeld/Cheney/Bush sr Presidency) and the precedent that "if the executive office does it, it is not illegal”) set the stage for Team B [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_B ], and the falsification of NIE's and the manufactured "cold war".
For those familiar with intelligence and NIE's from that period (mid 70's), the record is irrefutable that the US was the "bad guy/ axis of evil" fomenting war and killing worldwide, although that had been the policy since 1945.
2. The second lack of emphasis is what Naomi Klein calls the "Shock Doctrine ”, or the attempt to market monopoly and deception as “free markets”. Using the threat of nuclear military might as the muscle behind the extortion shakedown, USA foreign policy has attempted to keep slavery and predation alive. Until we find some way to regain the countervailing power of citizens and workers to share in economic goods in a more just and fair process domestically, we are not in a position to offer leadership to the rest of the world. And as Steve Clemons has sensed, it may well be too late for all that, "having crossed the Rubicon" by the fascization of our judicial and voting systems. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking that we are more able than the Germans to stop the inertia of a system run this far amok.
To Steve, my apologies for taking this thread into what you may see as a "side issue". But, as Woodrow Wilson said:
So in this environment, elections are perhaps best seen as a placebo, a hat trick scam, to misdirect and attempt to appease the public and offer some legitimacy to what many (most) see as an illegitimate regime, put in place by fraud. While many recognize that the Iranian and Russian power structures severely impinge on fair elections, what is the consensus here? Is there really any meaningful connection between what people want and what they get?
December 31, 2007 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zbigniew Brzezinski's right: the Soviets were a bigger threat than the Islamists in 1979. So obviously the Carter Administration made a cost/benefit, ends/means calculation, did what they did and ZB stands by it.
But today is a different world. The USSR is no more, and the strategy of propping up whichever corrupt, regional thug we think will hassle the Soviets, no longer makes sense. In fact, today's Islamist threat, such as it is, should be viewed as a consequence of Cold-War thug propping.
I think a progressive foreign policy vision needs much more than a critique of Bush's incompetence. And it's certainly a valid critique; he chooses his thugs poorly and haphazardly bounces from one faction to the next. But Star Trek writers called it the Prime Directive, and the United States needs something similar. The first step in repairing the damage caused by meddling in other countries' internal affairs, is to stop meddling.
December 31, 2007 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
jalmari said:
Only from the perspective of someone from Poland.
Otherwise the threat of the Soviets was grossly exaggerated. Read some of the Team B stuff, that Dr. Anne Cahn (Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1977-1980), forced into daylight by a FOI inquiry in 1991, many of the links are posted in the Wikipedia article on Team B. As she says ""I would say that all of it was fantasy."
December 31, 2007 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
As if anyone needs to be told, politics in the coming will have near total irrelevance in the face of the shitstorm heading this way--economic depression, energy scarcity, weather changes affecting food production. Brace yourselves.
And if you haven't noticed, politics is a totally rigged game. The only way out is to go local and get out of the global marketplace. In other words, it's time to secede from corporate totalitarianism and start living as human beings again.
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- We do not act rightly because we have virture, we have virtue because we act rightly.
January 1, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
And get closer to nature. Feed the birds. Smell the flowers. Watch the sunset and gaze at the stars.
January 1, 2008 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink