The campaign for next month’s parliamentary elections in Pakistan is underway, with leaders rallying their campaign workers and posters popping up around the country. In the city of Lahore in eastern Pakistan, big green banners with the symbol of a bicycle to represent the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Q) began appearing last week on the main thoroughfare (Because about half of Pakistanis are illiterate, the election commission allots each party a symbol so that people know which party to vote for in the election). Few observers have high hopes that the coming elections will be free and fair, and some worry that terrorist groups might seize the opportunity to conduct major attacks in the four weeks. Pakistan is in for a bumpy month as the January 8th election draws nearer, and it is not clear that these elections will resolve the struggles for power playing out in the different corners of the country.

This weekend President Pervez Musharraf will lift emergency rule and change the constitution in an effort to protect himself from legal prosecution for his actions when he introduced emergency rule six weeks ago. It remains to be seen what differences lifting emergency rule will actually bring to the country. This past week, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority, a government regulatory body, warned the heads of television channels that they could be fined, jailed and their channels taken off the air if they air live debates and forums. Opposition parties are complaining that the vote is already being rigged, a claim supported by a UN human rights envoy and prominent Pakistani attorney in testimony before the U.S. Congress yesterday.

Several lawyers, human rights activists, and political party leaders boycotting the elections here in Pakistan paint a grim scenario – widespread protests leading to violence in the streets, prompting the Pakistani Army to intervene. This might lead to Musharraf’s replacement by the Army, which remains the true center of power in Pakistan, these activists argue.

Other analysts here disagree. The fact that the mainstream political parties have all decided to throw their hat into the ring for these elections and participate on terms set by Musharraf and his backers in the Pakistani military shows that they have too much at stake in participating in the process and keeping the struggles over power peaceful to upset the whole system, as flawed as it is. Yes, there will be many complaints about the process and the debate over election results will be contentious, but it will remain peaceful. In his London office at King’s College last week, Anatol Lieven reiterated a point he made in an opinion piece earlier this fall – that Pakistan’s elites are so closely interrelated and share a common set of basic assumptions and interests, including not allowing their rivalry to reach the point where they would start killing each other.

Furthermore, the lawyers and civil society activists protesting in the streets for restoration of the judiciary are still a small group and may not capture the imagination of Pakistan’s broader public, many of whom are disengaging from formal politics. Voter turnout, which has steadily declined in recent elections, may reach new lows, and the disconnection between Pakistan’s elite and masses may grow.

The real wildcard in all of this, as always, is what the Islamist extremists might do in the coming weeks. Suicide bombing attacks have increased since the Pakistani government stormed the Red Mosque in central Islamabad after a week-long siege by extremists in an incident that ended up killing more than 100 people last July. In September, Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden declared war on President Musharraf and encouraged his followers to mount attacks against the Pakistani government. Intelligence agencies are warning of a new series of attacks as the elections near, and some worry that yesterday’s suicide attack on a military checkpoint in the southeastern Pakistan may be a sign of things to come.

As Pakistani political parties head out on the campaign trail, they are caught between an authoritarian government that has moved to consolidate its grip on power and a violent jihadist movement that seeks to further destabilize an already fragile country. This complicated environment will require the United States and other outside actors to make some difficult decisions – decisions that strike the right balance between all of the competing interests at play. As Americans head into the Christmas holiday debating the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, the next steps in Iraq, and who will win the early presidential primaries, it should maintain a watchful eye on what transpires in Pakistan.