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Coming Months in Pakistan Crucial for Making a Course Correction in "GWOT"

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Pakistan is not the central front in the so-called “global war on terror,” or GWOT. As I argued in yesterday’s post, there is no “central front” in meeting this diffuse and decentralized threat. And what’s required to achieve progress and make more people around the world safer is marshalling a broad range of policy instruments that go beyond the almost singular focus on traditional warfare that we have seen in the last six years. The coming months in Pakistan will be a vital test case for whether the United States and other global powers can make a clean break from the past and shift towards a more pragmatic and effective set of policies. Though I don’t offer up a popular catch phrase or slogan here and don’t have the space to write a treatise, here are four suggestions on what the United States should do to make this global course correction, employing events in Pakistan in making the case for why these shifts are necessary.

1. STOP: Blindly supporting dictators and autocrats. For all of President Bush’s talk about a freedom agenda in which the forces of democracy would defeat the forces of terrorism, his policies haven’t matched his rhetoric, and the world sees the hypocrisy. When President Bush said last month that President Musharraf “truly is somebody who believes in democracy” after Musharraf imposed emergency rule, shut down free media outlets, sacked judges, and jailed thousands of lawyers and civil society activists, some people here in Pakistan wondered if Bush was talking about their President Musharraf. In the span of eight years, Bush went from not even knowing Musharraf’s name to not knowing who he is as a leader.

The problem here is not just Pakistan – in places like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the United States backs repressive regimes – looking to individual leaders to seal the deal and advance our interests. Better the devil we know is the myopic and self-limiting argument for a policy that offers a narrow false choice between authoritarianism and chaos.

Beyond the moral problems with unquestioned support for repressive governments, there are two practical reasons why the United States should move beyond its addiction to dictators. First, as Princeton Professor Alan Krueger argues in his latest book, countries that suppress civil liberties and political rights are more likely to be countries that produce international terrorists. Repression – not poverty or illiteracy – is a key factor behind breeding terror. Second, supporting unpopular autocrats does the United States no favors in gaining cooperation and support from people in other countries who suffer from this repression. In a late afternoon discussion in Karachi with the Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan, an Islamist political party that has participated in elections and the parliament in Pakistan, one top leader asked, “Why is the United States standing by silently while our judges are in jail and the police are being used to rig this election? This is turning more and more people against the United States.” This sentiment was echoed by secular human rights activists and lawyers during the past week – people fighting for fair elections and human rights thought we were with them now feel like we’re against them. That’s no way to win the allies necessary to squeeze the terror groups.

2. START: Helping people build credible and functioning institutions that make more people secure and prosperous. Of course, this is easier said than done, but the main point here is that holding elections is not nearly enough. Elections are just a means to an end, not an end in and of itself. To defend against the threats posed by non-state terror groups, states needs to have the resources and capacity to get the job done. In addition to holding elections and having a strong army, other ingredients are necessary – like effective police and intelligence agencies, as well as competent and clean judges and civil servants. All of these elements require sufficient public funding and resources to attract the skilled personnel to serve the public.

In thinking about the threats posed by terrorist groups in this crowded city of 18 million people, I’m reminded of a trip I took to the Middle East as part of a delegation to meet with counterterrorist officials in that part of the world. Part of the delegation included New Jersey state police officers. The police officers offered stories of how they graduated from dealing with gang warfare and organized crime earlier in their careers to defending against terrorist attacks – and how their previous experiences fighting gangs and organized crime were very much relevant in taking down terrorist cells and preventing attacks in their states. We need to have a full range of powers at our disposal – not just the military.

Yet much of the conservative narrative on terrorism is narrowly centered on conventional military action – perhaps typified by former Bush advisor Karl Rove’s statement that “Liberals saw the savagery of the 9/11 attacks and wanted to prepare indictments and offer therapy and understanding for our attackers,” and conservatives prepared for war. This bluster from Rove shows the emptiness of a conservative movement that has its head stuck up its empty talking points when it comes to terrorism.

The conservative line of argument that centers on conventional military action ignores two key fundamentals – first, non-state terror groups use asymmetrical warfare and media campaigns as a primary means to advance their agendas. The notion that the United States might launch conventional military strikes in this crowded city of 18 million to ferret out small groups of terrorist cells that operate here is preposterous. Yet, that’s what mainstream conservative rhetoric would have you believe is the most effective route. Second, some of the most important assets in the struggle against terrorist organizations are the intelligence operatives, police officers, judges and lawyers that help build a strong fabric to defend against terror groups. The latter two groups – judges and lawyers – are under siege from the Pakistani president, yet the U.S. president says little more than empty words about his counterpart being committed to democracy.

3. STOP: Ignoring the interests other countries have at stake and the leverage they can bring to bear. All too often, the debate in the United States focuses on our own actions and what assets the United States can bring to bear in meeting what is essentially a common global threat. In Pakistan, numerous other countries are playing a role in shaping internal dynamics here, particularly countries in the Middle East. As I argued in a piece for the Middle East Bulletin, several Middle East countries are working to assert their interests here in Pakistan, and this naturally has an impact on whether the environment is favorable or unfavorable to terrorist groups. To craft the most effective strategies for places like Pakistan experiencing internal turmoil and threats from terrorist groups, the United States needs to take stock of the actions other countries are undertaking to assert their interests. In other words, the U.S. debate over next steps in Pakistan and how it impacts efforts to address terrorism should not look at the situation in a vacuum or in isolation of what others are doing.

4. START: Investing resources to ensure that the United States has the capacity to implement a comprehensive and integrated counterterrorism strategy. Although the United States has done a better job at attracting the talent necessary to implement a robust strategy of engagement to meet the threat posed by terrorism, it has much work to do to rebalance resources and get qualified personnel in key positions – particularly intelligence agents, law enforcement personnel, economic development specialists, and diplomats who can speak foreign languages.

The United States must begin dedicating more resources to revive civilian agencies that can work with governments of other countries around the world to turn lawless zones of conflict into areas of stability and prosperity. This means a complete overhaul of agencies like the State Department to attract and retain the talent necessary to help other countries advance their self-interest in addressing the common threats posed by terror groups. It also means moving beyond personal relationships and building cooperative relationships between our government’s institutions and the institutions of other governments. Remaining locked in a short-term strategy of supporting individual leaders at the expense of strengthening institutions such as an independent judiciary will only come back to haunt us in places like Pakistan.


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I think your suggestions here are excellent. This sadly means of course they'll likely never happen. Yes, yes... I'm a sour grape.

One of the core problems is that in many ways we need to fix things here at home first. With our political system hijacked, debt & poverty growing and the gap in wealth growing, who then can we export the promise of hope and rational & fair governance? Firstly there would be little value given to our position if we ourselves didn't practice it. And even if we somehow successfully exported the kinds of approaches we say we want to, how long would it be before the absence of them here at home would destabalize our nation? It is always easier to take what you want than it is to compromise. And in some ways isn't that approach an almost Darwinian law of nature? We certainly seem to have embraced it as ironic as the Darwin connection may be. It appears America will tread heavily and act ham handedly until such a time that it can not. It is this historic principle of power that appears firmly entrenched in our nations politics & policy. And it could ultimately spell our fall (not destruction per say but a diminished role).

But I like what you say here and I thing it's the direction we need to take. I do so because as I see it this historic system of power that we (and others) now use is not sustainable. It's time is coming to an end. It is vulnerable to decay from within & without. And by it's very nature, it ensures that when the fall happens there will be no one there to lend a hand. It's burning all your bridges and I think we all know that's a bad idea. But there are bigger more tangible reasons we need to change.

The world is changing as it always has. Only now it happens faster and to a staggering larger number of people. With the growing connections in global economics, technology, food & fuel resources accompanied by this population explosion it all means that the systems of the past desperately need a re-evaluation. They will no long work. The hope for the future (for us and the rest of the nations on the planet) rests in rational thought & cooperation. We need to grow up as a nation (and as a planet). I think we need to act nimbly to position ourselves as a leader in moving in this direction. It appears to me to be one of the sure ways of maintaining the position of global leader, that we've grown comfortable with, into the future. We are uniquely suited for this role if we can just get our own act together. If not, I think that it will crumble and the world will find it's path without us...and in spite of us.

Super analysis. I add these comments uncritically.

1. Stop supporting dictators. The problem is that the US needs these dictators to support its unpopular policies in other countries, such as Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. Some wrong policies beget others, so it's a more holistic problem.

2. Start helping people. Until the US has domestic policies that help people it is not inclined to help others abroad. Yes, counter-terroriusm means police and intelligence work, not bombs and invasions.

3. Stop ignoring other countries. US policies seem to be America-centric, thinking that the US can always have its way because other countries don't matter. In Pakistan, China has more influence than the US has because China has been a truer friend and benefactor. Pakistan and China share a common enemy, India, which has been a recipient of US favors recently. China is investing in the economy of Pakistan, whereas the US is investing in its military, a common world pattern. Pakistan is destined, with Chinese aid, to become a major economic entry into central Asia and western China from the Arabian Sea using a new port being developed at Gwadar which will connect with improved transportation facilities in Pakistan.

4. Start investing resources. The US is woefully short of people who, with regard to Pakistan for example, speak Urdu and understand South Asia. This is true both in the State Department and in the US embassy in Islamabad.

Pakistan will be the first face-off between the US and the new China. Both countries have inherent advantages. Katulis is suggesting that the US capitalize on its inherent capabilities for democracy and innovation, which will require a course correction. Does the US have the sense to realize it, and take the necessary action? Not if it continues to wallow in military adventures and Islamo-fascist rhetoric.

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It took the Congressional Research Service 21 pages to basically say what is so neatly summed up in 4 great, easy to understand points.

As another cynical grape, mcboo style, I hold no hope that this administration will consider their implementation. In the GWOT, they measure their effectiveness by how many times they can kill the #3 guy in A-Q, and if the guy they just water boarded gave them directions to Starbucks or Bin Laden. Not that we would be able to find either one of them, even with maps.

Speaking of our full range of power and the State Dep't, Point #4 is almost DOA already. At least 150 jobs in Washington and overseas missions scheduled to be filled next year will have to be deferred as the department struggles with "severe staffing shortfalls" due to a lack of resources, Foreign Service Director General Harry Thomas said in a worldwide cable early Wednesday.



...the delusional is no longer marginal. It has come in from the fringe, to sit in the seat of power in the Oval Office and in Congress. Bill Moyers

These recommendations seem to me overly abstract, fantastically idealized and quite ideological. There is no attempt to draw any precise causal connections between possible means and ends, or to evaluate the consequences of specific alternative courses of action given the actual concrete challenges, threats and perplexities the world faces in Pakistan.

We don't just confront a generic world with generic problems that require some generic approach, policy or "grand strategy" of messianic Americanism. Pakistan is a particular place with particular concrete circumstances at a particular time in history. It's right at the crossroads of some incredibly important violent conflicts coupled with nuclear security risks. It's not some sort laboratory for clueless American civil society engineers to use for yet another attempted makeover of a thoroughly foreign society in the American image. I haven't read a single thing yet in this thread that moves beyond banal generalizations and think tanky, ivory tower liberal pablum, or that makes anything close to a persuasive case for the efficacy of the very broad prescriptions that are being put forward.

Frankly, I'm a bit more concerned about making sure that Pakistan doesn't become the spark that ignites a nuclear chain reaction where the world starts to blow itself up than I am about the plans of a few west-leaning lawyers and political activists. We've had to go through seven years of a highly ideological and bumbling Bush administration. I am not at all eager to trade them in for a new class of eager, blue-eyed democracy promoters, who are no less ideological, simple-minded and bumbling. Do you honestly think these lawyers and human rights activists are going to "squeeze the terror groups", as you say? I'll believe it when I see it.

Now here is a passage that took my breath away:

The police officers offered stories of how they graduated from dealing with gang warfare and organized crime earlier in their careers to defending against terrorist attacks – and how their previous experiences fighting gangs and organized crime were very much relevant in taking down terrorist cells and preventing attacks in their states. We need to have a full range of powers at our disposal – not just the military.

This is an absolutely absurd anecdote. We are talking on the one hand about Pakistan, a very dangerous and violent country racked by frequent attacks by a variety of militant groups, representing an assortment of ideological characters for which there are few counterparts in the American experience, and conditions close to civil war in weakly governed or ungoverned regions of the country. And this is being compared to New Jersey - New Jersey!!!!. Exactly how many really serious terrorist attacks have New Jersey state police foiled? Have the New Jersey state police mounted military raids into tri-state corner to attempt to regain control over an armed breakaway county? Does New Jersey have a secret arsenal of nuclear weapons wrangled over by dysfunctional state government and an autonomous army? Is New Jersey in a permanent state of tension, with flare-ups of actual fighting, with a nuclear-armed Pennsylvania over control of the Delaware River?

This projection of American circumstances onto a radically different country is beyond belief. There is simply no end to Quiet American arrogance and ideological fanaticism. New Jersey has nothing to teach Pakistan about how to deal with terrorism or any of the other complex domestic problems in that country - nothing. I shudder to think about what it would mean to place the security of the US and the globe in the hands of people who think Pakistan could really make some progress on the terrorism front if only they listened more to the New Jersey State Police!

There are lot of foreign policy buzz words here: "course correction", "robust strategy of engagement", "integrated strategy", "rebalance resources", etc. But I don't see much realism. There is no clear prioritization of goals regarding Pakistan, nor any sign of hard-headed thinking about concrete, non-generic measures for achieving them.

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