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Alexandra makes what I think is perhaps the most valuable point of the whole discussion: namely, 1) that “Ninety-five percent of all felony cases are resolved through plea, not trial. As a result, judges and public adversarial procedures such as trials are decreasingly relevant; much of what goes on remains informal and undocumented.” So, I have a question for Alexandra—and perhaps Douglas, too.

Given the recent SCOTUS decisions in Gall and Kimbrough in which the court said that federal judges “may not presume that the guideline range is reasonable” do you think we will see an increase in defendants choosing to go to trial rather than taking a plea beforehand? Now that a trial judge is free to impose a lower sentence than the guideline range it seems reasonable to conclude that defendants might want to face trial. Or will the staggering conviction rate in the federal system deter defendants from going to trial? Finally, will the 5K motion become much less valuable now that a trial judge is free to depart from the guidelines? Is “The 5K Game”—in which cooperation is so essential to a defendant receiving a downward departure from the sentencing guidelines—over?


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IMHO the group of people that are hurt the most by the 5K game definitely don't follow Supreme Court cases and most likely can't afford a lawyer who does either.

Perhaps when our grand-children attend high school history they will learn about these cases as the start of a judicial innovation that greatly improved the drug problem and welfare of this country in general, but something makes me doubt that. Legislatures broke the system, they need to be the ones that fix it.

(cross-posted at Natapoff)

NB. Still shifting, almost 10 yrs later, PBS Frontline: Snitch - How informants became a key part of prosecutorial strategy in the drug war. Lede: "Snitch investigates how a fundamental shift in the country's anti-drug laws -- including federal mandatory minimum sentencing and conspiracy provisions--has bred a culture of snitching that is in many cases rewarding the guiltiest and punishing the less guilty." See also An Empirical Yardstick by Linda Drazga Maxfield and John H Krame (both then members of the U.S. Sentencing Commission) on sentencing reform, 5K1 et al.

The whole innocent-until-proven-guilty thing is a sham and most people know it. I doubt people will go to trial more often. People want to stay out of jail regardless. Unless you just keep being sent to jail or prison, most people are going to avoid it no matter how low sentences are.

I was just looking at the baseball steroid report that came out today, and from what I can see (I know little about it), this entire list of implicated players came from one guy:

Much of the information in this report comes from the guy who filled this role for many of the Mets, Kirk Radomski. Before telling all to Mitchell, Radomski rolled over for the feds.

I figured this was a good place to bring it up.

Glad you brought it up. Scott@the great criminal justice blog Grits for Breakfast just sent this my way:

gritsforbreakfast.blogspot.com/2007/12/baseballs-mitchell-report-relies-on.html

Found the link

I'm glad you mentioned the jury-trial conviction rate. Many people think that a trial-by-jury is like 50/50 for the defendant.

However, while I do not have the numbers in front of me, if I recall only about 10-20% of those who go to jury are acquitted.

This means that once you are in the criminal justice system, you automatically have an 80% chance of being convicted.

Russian roulette has much better odds.

Therefore, the answers to your questions are no, yes, no, and no.

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