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Dems Need to Copy Chuck Hagel

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The New York Times' Helene Cooper has a useful primer on which presidential contenders got a boost or got headwind from three major foreign policy issues last week.

She noted that President Bush hand signed a personal letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, a man Bush had called a "pygmy" and who John Bolton several times called "human scum." The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran also set back Iran hawks. Last, there was the news that the CIA videotaped the harsh interrogation (i.e. torture) of certain high value prisoners and then destroyed the tapes.

I mentioned that before even consider how the current campaigns were affected, one had to consider Chuck Hagel -- even though not in the campaign. He is the one person whose profile in national security and foreign policy issues would have anticipated all these bits of news and is well positioned in the country on them. He is pro-engagement, anti-torture, pro-transparency, and wants the government to prepare for things as they are not as ideological fabulists would have them be.

From Helen Cooper's article, "Winners and Losers of the Week in Foreign Policy":

So, who among the presidential hopefuls was helped and who was hurt by the Bush administration's foreign policy holiday presents?

Over all, political observers and foreign policy experts say the three developments hurt Republicans and helped Democrats.

"The Republicans as a whole lose because of these revelations," said Steve Clemons, senior fellow and director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington. "If Chuck Hagel were running, he would be the beneficiary, but there's no one like Hagel on the Republican side."

Mr. Hagel, a Republican senator from Nebraska , has strongly criticized the Bush administration, particularly on foreign policy. He has also advocated dialogue with America's adversaries, criticized some of the interrogations of detainees at Guantanamo, and called for less hawkish behavior against Iran.

The rest of the article is useful.

Cooper notes that McCain gets a slight boost because of anti-torture credentials, but that the Republicans as a whole were hurt by this past week's news.

On the Dem side, Obama gets the biggest boost as the most pro-engagement of the candidates. Hillary gets some headwind because of the assist she gave the administration in supporting the Kyl-Lieberman Resolution calling for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to be designated a terrorist organization.

Joe Biden gets a boost as one of the most experience foreign policy hands who has been opposed to over-hyping the Iran threat and has been offering a fount of serious tactical and strategic proposals for America's engagement in the Middle East and globally.

Finally, John Edwards remains relatively unaffected despite the claim that his first action as President would be to fly around the world to work on reconstituting key alliances. Most see him as focused on middle class economic issues -- and not the broad national security portfolio.

As I have written before, it would be wise for one of the candidates -- now that Hagel is out of the presidential race -- to copy Senator Hagel's template for thinking about national security and foreign policy issues. Whether it is Obama, Edward, Clinton, or others -- Hagel's views are out there to borrow and run with.

-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note


7 Comments

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More groundless opining from the daffy amateur pseudo-science of political punditry.

Personally, I'll be happy if it turned out Obama did indeed get a boost and if Clinton did indeed pick up some headwind. But how the candidates' chances were affected by the news of the week is an empirical question. The question can be answered only imperfectly by polling, to the extent it can be answered at all. Pundits have no special cognitive capacities that enable them to answer these questions through clairvoyant intuition. Unless Cooper has acquired some sort of magical Kreskin-like powers that allow her to measure aggregate psychological effects on millions of Americans from the vantage point of an armchair, these pronouncements are worthless.

Dan is dead right. This is not about who gets a boost in public opinion. It's about who's impressed people like Cooper and Steve. I don't deny that the Beltway has the power to help shape public opinion, but I'm none too thrilled about that. And what exactly is the logic giving Clinton's hardline vote a positive while giving Obama's diametrically opposing position a boost, too, other than that the insiders don't like Edwards? 

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

John, I don't think Cooper and Steve meant that it's a positive for Clinton. I'm no pilot, but I know a headwind is something that slows you down.

Dan K -- you are right. A headwind is resistance. A tailwind gives momentum.

best, Steve Clemons

Thanks for the help.

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

Um, no. We don't need Democrats to copy of the foreign policy views of the only apparently sane Republican. The only thing the Democrats need to copy from Chuck Hagel is his willingness to stand up for what he believes in, whether it is in fashion or not.

Focusing on political winners and losers of the week in foreign policy is idiotic. Torture is wrong, stupid, and weak. Pick your reason, but you have to be against it always, not when it makes you a "winner" for the week.

Let me give you a piece of advice. Go read the speech Sheldon Whitehouse gave on Friday.

http://whitehouse.senate.gov/record.cfm?id=288537&

Mr. Bush has subverted the entire edifice upon which the foreign policy apparatus of this country is based. He's been operating under a regime that says all executive orders are optional, he determines whether or not any of his actions are lawful, and the DOJ is bound by his interpretations of the law.

Let me know who you think comes out a winner in that.

The Whitehouse speech was fantastic.....and I mostly agree with your point.

best, Steve Clemons

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