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NeoCons Go Ballistic on Iran NIE

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(Hat tip to Bill Hartung for beating this dog first, but it is a ripe and juicy target.)

“How can you trust the intelligence community to get it right on Iran? They got Iraq wrong in 2002 and now this?” The “this” is the NIE on Iran and its search for nukes.


That in a nutshell is one of the prevalent reactions of neocons and Bush true believers. But wait, there is more. John Bolton told Wolf Blitzer that the NIE was the handiwork of exiled State Department officials hell bent on undermining Bush and this country.


Well, I think it’s potentially wrong. But I would also say many of the people who wrote this are former State Department employees who, during their career at the State Department, never gave much attention to the threat of the Iranian program. Now they are writing as members of the intelligence community, the same opinions that they have had four and five years ago.

This is one of the neocon talking points. Check out the ravings of Norman Podhoretz, a senior statesman of the neocons. The Pod Man wrote:

I must confess to suspecting that the intelligence community, having been excoriated for supporting the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, is now bending over backward to counter what has up to now been a similarly universal view (including as is evident from the 2005 NIE, within the intelligence community itself) that Iran is hell-bent on developing nuclear weapons. I also suspect that, having been excoriated as well for minimizing the time it would take Saddam to add nuclear weapons to his arsenal, the intelligence community is now bending over backward to maximize the time it will take Iran to reach the same goal.

But I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again. This time the purpose is to head off the possibility that the President may order air strikes on the Iranian nuclear installations. As the intelligence community must know, if he were to do so, it would be as a last resort, only after it had become undeniable that neither negotiations nor sanctions could prevent Iran from getting the bomb, and only after being convinced that it was very close to succeeding. How better, then, to stop Bush in his tracks than by telling him and the world that such pressures have already been effective and that keeping them up could well bring about “a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program”—especially if the negotiations and sanctions were combined with a goodly dose of appeasement or, in the NIE’s own euphemistic formulation, “with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways.”

This blog was one of the first to report that the NIE was being delayed for political reasons. George Bush tried his moron act again today (i.e., “I didn’t find out about this until last week.”) but this time the turd ain’t floating. The news that Iran ended its nuclear program in 2003 was briefed to George Bush in the Presidential Daily Brief. He has known about this, I am told, for at least one year. George Bush is lying when he insists he had no inkling, until last week, that the intelligence community believed Iran halted its nuke program in 2003.

This is the kind of earthshaking intel that analysts rarely get to see. What is remarkable about the NIE is the consensus in the intelligence community about the validity of this info. Compare this to the execrable 2002 NIE on Iraq. There was no consensus in the intelligence community about Iraq’s efforts to acquire nukes. The”true believers” held the day and their position was prominently featured in the final draft. Dissenters–State’s Intelligence and Research Bureau and the Department of Energy–were relegated to footnotes and comments separated from the claim.

When you do an NIE it is incumbent on the writers to clearly state whether there is consensus or dissent. And if there is disagreement then that should be reflected in the text. In the case of the October 2002 abortion, the NIC editors should have noted that there was disagreement in the intelligence community about Iraq’s efforts to rebuild its nuclear program. They should have written something like, “analysts at the CIA and DIA believe Saddam is trying but analysts at INR and DOE believe the evidence points to non-nuclear activity”. Instead, the NIC editors let stand the misleading notion that Iraq was rebuilding a nuclear weapons program even though all agreed that Iraq was not trying to acquire yellowcake uranium from Niger. The senior NIC officials failed to do their duty in 2002.

Not the case today. The NIC stepped up and refused to budge despite repeated efforts by Dick Cheney and his minions to gut the effort. This happened thanks to the convergence of several factors. First, most of the Bush neocon ideologues are gone–Wolfowitz, Feith, Bolton, Wurmser, Libby, etc. Second, the Democrats control the House and Senate Intelligence committee and were receiving reports from analysts about the bullying by Cheney and others who were trying to sandbag the conclusions. Third, senior intelligence officers learned the lesson of 2002 and returned to the tradition of telling the President the truth, no matter how unpopular or unpalatable. And finally, this Administration’s days are numbered and the analysts can read the tea leaves. They know there is no percentage in pandering to power by serving up half-truths and wishful thinking.

But let’s not celebrate too strongly. It is clear from the Bush presser today that he is not backing off an inch from his delusion about the Iranians and his commitment to do something about them. Fortunately, the release of this NIE hems him in a bit and limits his options for using military force. It also reminds the American people that serious threats can be resolved with diplomacy rather than rely on testosterone laden military fantasies. If political pressure can keep Iran from building nukes then that is the course we should pursue above all others. Eat that one Mr. Podhoretz.


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I do not believe it will hem in GW Bush one iota. I think he has already made the decision to bomb Iran, and has the law behind him to do it. In fact, I believe this NIE is part of a cover to put the Iranians at ease before the bombing begins.

The Congress should have impeached him after he quid pro quo'd the Scooter Libby pardon. Now Bush has no respect for anyone else in DC, and will proceed with his plans to bomb, and possibly nuke, Iran.

The sane establishment types know that if Bush attacks Iran, gas prices could go to $10 a gallon. If that happens, with the sub-prime loan melt down going on, that means people defaulting on their home loans en masse. 40 mile commutes to work become untenable at those prices, and all those housing developments in the ex-urbs become ghost towns. Virtually overnight.

An attack on Iran could very easily lead to a new Depression. We may be headed that way anyway, in slow-motion - but $10 a gallon gas is like stomping on the accelerator when the car is perched on the edge of a cliff.

Only psychopaths like Cheney and Podhoretz could advocate such rash behaviour.

Well, they've got quite a freerolling (or win-win) scenario there. If Iraq had turned out great, it would prove the case for preemptive war. But because it was a disaster, it "proves" the intel community can't be trusted, which obviously means we need more preemptive war. I'm a total outsider to this world of intel, but I'd imagine there will be many more damaging leaks now that they've made official their policy of throwing the experts under the bus for their own rush to war.

"Now Bush has no respect for anyone else in DC..."

I don't understand the meaning of now in that sentence. It sounds as though you're implying that GWB once had respect for someone else in DC, but lost it after the Scooter Libby pardon. But that notion, that GWB had respect for any institution or anyone else, is so risible that I know it can't be what you meant.

So we now have public confirmation of what many of us who have been paying attention were confident about all along: Bush and his stooges have been fabricating a pretense to attack Iran. Hooray! Maybe.

Thus far the brain dead corporate media is able only to express surprise and wonder about how this could be. "how is it that the President didn't know this?" they ask. They never tell their viewers that it is plain as day that he did know for a long time and he's simply lying about it now. They seem committed to covering up the simple truth which is that Bush, et al have been lying through their teeth for a long time about Iran and the threat it represents to the US, etc... Clearly, Bush and his gang of criminals have no shame about lying just as they have no shame about any of their nefarious and/or illegal acts.

So, given this set of circumstances, what I'm wondering is whether this really means anything at all. What is to stop this irresponsible asshole Bush from launching an attack on Iran just because he feels like it? Certainly not the Congressional Wimpocrats who cannot even manage to cite Presidential Aides who refuse to comply with subpoenas for being in contempt of Congress. What is to stop him from waiting until just prior or just after next November's election, after having cooked up some other "plausible" threat from Iran--or at least one that the press can promote as real and scary? I think these people, as we approach the end of the tyrant's term, are extraordinarily dangerous. I hope the military leaders will stubbornly refuse to cooperate with any plans to attack Iran which would be illegal, unjustifiable, immoral, and without question in oposition to the American national interest.

Kucinich was the only one at the NPR sponsored debate today whose record of judgement has been accurate on these issues,Iraq WMDs,Irans capabilities, vote over Repub.Guard etc.. Of course he was asked the fewest questions.(maybe Gravel was tied) He is also the only one calling for impeachment of an administration which has so obviously lied about such important issues.

So, I am not a great writer. Sorry. My point was that, judging from his reaction at his news conference today, he is going ahead with his plans. Cheney has convinced him Congress will not stop him, and so far, they have not.

I think you can predict people's future behavior based on their past actions. I think Bush wants history to judge him, because he actually believes in Armageddon and that we live in biblical times. It really should not be hard to decipher after all he has done and said in the past. Frankly, the man is a few McNuggets short of a Happy Meal.

The only way to stop him is impeachment, and Congress did not when he showed that he had participated in a conspiracy to out a NOC agent for political purposes by pardoning Scooter Libby. That is why Scooter never snitched. Remember the parable Scooter wrote about the Aspen trees? The man knows his political horticulture. Anyone other than the POTUS would be in jail for similar behavior. So the edge of the envelope widened for him, in his mind, and he is going to push it further with Iran. It really is the "broken windows" theory of crime prevention, in reverse, on a grand geo-political scale.

It was amusing and annoying to watch the president smirk and squirm as the question was asked, then he showed his usual contempt for the media by talking to them as though they were simple-minded children (projection there) and chuckling through the words (w-heh-orld W-W-heh-ar 3), then dismissing any more questions about it.

Not. A. Word. anywhere at Foxnews.com about the NIE. Plenty of celebrity BS, freak-show stories, GOP praise and smearing of Dems, though.

I think Bush wants history to judge him, because he actually believes in Armageddon and that we live in biblical times.

And if he believes these are biblical times, then by your account, what role does he believe that he plays? He must consider that he is the beast that was predicted in the book of revelations and Daniel. Unfortunately, in many ways, he maps to too many of these characterizations already. Most specifically that of the wolf wearing the sheep's clothes and fooling the faithful and all that carbon fiber. I think its interesting to compare how the current times maps to those predicted in the bible, they got the geography right, they got the timing right, and they got a madman inside the white house, who, as predicted, is charismatic enough that he happens to have 'fooled the faithful'. Its entertaining because of the similarities, but only as entertainment, not as reality.

However, if this were possibly biblical end times, well, then his role could never be as one of the good guys, only bad - the beastly kind.

I think Bush is insane, but I don't think he's that kind of insane. I don't think he sees himself as the bad guy or in a biblical context. Instead, I think he feels more like a gambler that keeps putting money on the table at greater and greater risks because he needs a bigger and bigger payoff just to get back to being even. Maybe he's thinking, if I keep starting wars, maybe I will eventually win one, or get one right.

Of course it's just a guess. He's insane. No doubt about that. How he's insane is anybody's guess. There's books out there about all that too. And yes, they are entertaining, but frustratingly not definitive.

He that hath a trade, hath an estate - from Poor Richards Almanac - Benjamin Franklin

As I mentioned earlier tonight in this post, directed to Larry Johnson:

“… the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction…”

I just love that line!

As I am sure you recall, Larry, the unclassified National Intelligence Estimate—released many months prior to the launch of the attack on Iraq—said nothing of the sort. Instead, the consensus conclusions included that claim that Iraq did not have a robust and sophisticated program for the production of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, that it had no long-range missile delivery system, that its efforts to develop more effective short and long range missiles was ineffective, and that it posed no near-term term threat to the United States and our European allies, and only a limited threat to its neighbors. Even the discussion regarding ’suitcase’ nuclear delivery systems and any possible alliance with rogue states or stateless terrorist organization was largely dismissive.

I wish I could find myself more polite in discussing both Podhoretz and Bolton, but I rather find myself unable to resist the temptation to classify both as they can plainly and reasonably be seen: complete whack-jobs! Then, and now. (At least they are consistent in that respect.) For either to make the claims they do is ridiculous on its face.

I thought that Ambassador Bolton came essentially unhinged during the War Room interview. Strangely, I imagine that being on CNN’s poorly named War Room broadcast is actually the closest that Bolton has every come to war. And, that’s apparently closer than most of his associates and co-conspirators have ever come…

Bush is going to have a real big problem getting around the military if he still plans to go to war, no matter what the scenario. Admiral Fallon is on record as saying that there will be no war on his watch. The Air Force might be all fired up to shock & awe another non-threatening country but the US Navy is a different story. For one thing they are incredibly vulnerable to anti-ship cruise missiles while in the Persian Gulf, because Iran has a whole lot of mobile launched Mach 3 ship killers that the navy has zero defense against if forced to fight inside the Gulf. Google "millenium challenge 2002" and read up on how the Navy could lose 3/4 of the Fifth Fleet to ship-killer missiles. It ain't pretty. And there are many other problems such as Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and watch what happens to oil prices and the economy.

“… the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction…”

I still remember Scott Ritter on the PBS Newshour insisting most vehemently that there were no WMDs.

I still remember Hans Blix in country not finding any, and George Bush telling him to shut down his operation and bug out quickly or risk being bombed himself. Bush stopped Blix before he could definitively prove that there were no valid pretext to going to war.

I am incline to believe that at that point Saddam would have cut him a deal that would have given Bush the country - with infrastructure fully intact - without a war, for only a $1 billion and some nice coastal property somewhere where he could sit out his retirement. But Bush wanted war.

Heck, I don't subscribe to that biblical blather, or want to understand it. I know Woodward said Bush has spoken to Jesus in the Oval office.

I just think he believes in enough of it to believe that he has been put in a special place, by God, for the purpose of doing God's bidding. Like Freud said, sometimes a cigar really is just a cigar.

The Pod may be correct.

But I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again. This time the purpose is to head off the possibility that the President may order air strikes on the Iranian nuclear installations.

Another way of putting it: The career professionals are finally exercising their professional responsibilities and defying the whackjob in the White House.

Too bad Congress won't exercise their responsibility to impeach, convict, and then indict the architects of the criminal invasion of Iraq. Too bad the national media careerists won't exercise their responsibility to tell the fucking truth of things.

MW

The idiot son is a P-S-Y-C-O-P-A-T-H.

Let's see now...
Impeachable... yes or no

Withholding information from Congress/public concerning Iraq threat...
no

Lying to Congress/public concerning firing officials who leaked information about Valorie Plame...
no

Lying to Congress/public concerning threat of Iran...
no

Apparently, nobody in Congress or the Senate has bothered to read the Federalist papers concerning withholding and swaying information by the president concerning military threats as justification for impeachment...

Our leaders have all abandoned "We the People" and are instead vying for position as our democracy falls....

I gave you a 5 for content, but could you avoid the "F" word in the future.  I don't think it helps.

Bush isn't insane, and he isn't the Beast either, (whose followers must wear the mark of the Beast and who unites the world in 7 years of harmony and 7 years of discord leading to Armageddon) nor could he think himself to be. I honestly don't believe he's even a Christian. I've never known a committed Christian who cursed and didn't go to church.

Bush is a deeply neurotic, egotistic, and insecure man. He's not delusional, in the clinical sense, but he is deluding himself constantly. He's a horrible prick who is utterly self-centered, sadistic, and incapable of empathy. I'll not let you enter an insanity plea for him!

"...he showed his usual contempt for the media by talking to them as though they were simple-minded children (projection there)..."

I'm not sure this is evidence of his contempt for the media (though he certainly has contempt for them). It strikes me more that he's parroting an explanation that's at about the limit of HIS understanding, provided to him by subordinates. In other words, he gets things explained to him in words of one syllable, then assumes everybody else is as ignorant as he was before he got the explanation. He then offers it up to reporters like it was philosopher's gold. Like when your kid comes home from school having learned a simplified version of a complex concept, like natutral selection, and gives you a lecture on it at a fourth grade level.

Plus, when he talks like that I always assume he's talking to the 24% who have undying faith in his delusions.

But isn't it annoying? Somebody described it like scratching your nails against a blackboard - and that fits for me.

bush... the man who failed upward.. to the detriment of a country and a world.

Correct use of the term!

You're right in one sense... but I disagree with your conclusion.

Yes, past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. (but not only)

However, in this case, in my view, bush is unable to pursue his agenda, because there is a huge wave of opposition to letting him have his way again. So, this report gives strength and comfort to all those who oppose war as a solution for this kind of thing. Not just at home. But abroad.

So we're not just talking bush's ability to go to war on his own here. The military is stretched and doesn't want another quagmire etc. There is a much stronger group of people now who will rise up and disagree with propaganda that beats a war drum... and this NIE is hugely helpful with that. And other countries simply won't get in line behind bush. There's going to be no coalition, no "willing partners."

So, while my field is not foreign relations, I'm pretty sure that despite bush's desire to be a war leader, he's not gonna get another war for Christmas, or Easter for that matter.

Just my two cents.

The Constitution? bush: "nobody ever told me about that!"

Isn't this the precise point in time when the neocon crazies get crowned with the tinfoil hat? (we should pause and remember other great moments in the record of a diseased political ideology. Of course there was William Safire and his campaign against the CIA hiding the transparent information (beamed to him presumably from more intelligent life on Halley's comet). Safire was given the full free use of the esteemed editorial pages of the NYTimes to sell Atta's connection with Saddam in Prague. How soon we forget how piss-poor our corporate media has been for so long.)
They are genuinely certifiably nuts and the fact that they take up so much of the oxygen in our national debate is a dangerous sign of a nation in serious distress. Other signs abound. Katrina, a national disgrace brought to us by morally deficient crazies, too busy pretending to be religious to care about their responsibilities and the need to do "no harm'. And the housing bubble and the current economic distress. Mr Greenspan, the maestro, another giant in the land of powerful men. Time to read more Ayn Rand...comic-book literature for our leaders.

I found this Atrios post from yesterday particularly profound, so think about it:

"It must be understood that since our intelligence agencies don't believe Iran has a nuclear weapons program, it also means that they don't know where such a program would be physically located if it did exist. This means that any desires of Dick Cheney and his people to bomb Iran simply involve... bombing the shit out of Iran."

I would love an enterprising film maker to do a remake of "Seven Days in May" but with the plot device changed so that General Scott is trying to stop a deranged president from starting WWIII by dropping tactical nukes on a ME country. Even better if they could use the original film, using CGI to replace Frederick March with GWB (or Dick Cheney).

How would the movie end? I'd have a Musharraf-like takeover (as Scott planned in the original film) and conclude with a closing speech from Scott excoriating Congress and the media for their serial failures to uphold their constitutional roles of oversight and informing the public. If they could use CGI to animate Burt Lancaster delivering the speech in that calm but relentless manner....

It would be a dark little movie, in tune with the times....

Rather than denigrate former State Department analysts who were wrong 4-5 years ago, he apparentl;y verifies their decisions. The State Department was one of the Agencies not convinced Saddam had or was capable of WMD. Whereas Bolton is wrong now as he has been all along. His position now is akin to someone exhorting a mob to riot. His 'influence' is diminishing, if he had that much to begin with, and he will be hiding in a cave with Cheney and the rest of the loonie neocons waiting for the opportunity to advertise the next apocalypse. He should go on trial with the rest of the war criminals who got us in this mess.

I particularly like this line from The Pod Man:

"[I]f [Bush] were to do so [attack Iran], it would be as a last resort, only after it had become undeniable that neither negotiations nor sanctions could prevent Iran from getting the bomb, and only after being convinced that it was very close to succeeding."

And where would he get this information, if the intelligence community can't be trusted to give real data? (Oh, I forgot - he'll get it from commentators who've never been to Iran, don't speak Farsi and have never been in the military!)

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself!" - Franklin Roosevelt

Kucinich is a wack. A genuine nutcase. Every SINGLE TIME he opens his mouth, it's "me me me me me me me I did that me me me I'm the only one". He is simply a monster of ego.

When Clinton or Obama or Edwards answered questions, they just answered the question. With Kucinich, it was always "me"

Fortunately, the release of this NIE hems him in a bit and limits his options for using military force

Hems him in a bit? It makes a complete fool of him.

It's only the compliant mainstream media that allows him to save face.

nope Atrios has this one wrong. That logic does not follow.

I don't have a million dollars, but if I did, I think it would be safe to assume that I'd be keeping it in the bank, not stuffed under the mattress or in the fireplace as kindling.

Likewise, we may know that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, but if they did I would think we'd have some idea where the facilities would be.

Curveball 2: Tehran Boogaloo!

Consider for a moment that this is good news. That Dick Cheney is losing his grip on the flow of information from the intelligence community to the public. If this had happened in 2002, the USA would not have gone to war in Iraq. It is good to see Cheney in a lame duck position. Let's hope he gets lamer as time goes on.

On Monday, forced to lead with the story, Lou Dobbs made his first question this: if they weren't right before, why should we think they got it right now? I was already scared and depressed enough to change channels.

Of course, the answer is that they're better at predicting the past than at predicting the future and that they wouldn't even be so bad at the latter if Bush/Cheney didn't suppress or lie about what they'd known all along. And that should be the news. But Larry's right to see the right swing into action, and we should be scared.

I don't mean we should be scared they'll invade Iran. Honestly, I thought all along that fear represented liberal paranoia. (Note that we got these warnings that it was happening any day now starting so long ago....) The fear should be that this is their political talking points, a way of sustaining the only hold they have on the public, fear and patriotism, long after Iraq no longer served that purpose.

Thus, while no power on earth could restrain Bush from doing what he pleases, the more the Democrats start talking back, the more they win in 2008.

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

"Fortunately, the release of this NIE hems him in a bit and limits his options for using military force."

Unless again, a Higher Force instructs him otherwise.

Show me the yellowcake

That's not mutually exclusive. He has been made a fool yet the strategic employment of the corporate media still allows him room to move. 

This was just one move. Cheney, Inc. may have suffered a set back but they are far from down and out. January '08 is not the end of the 4th quarter, the game continues.

you have to follow the neo-con obfuscation. "… the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction…" the key word is HAD, there was a universal belief that Saddam "had" WMD (at least chemical) at some point in the past, as there was documented (tragic) evidence that he had used them, and stockpiles had been found following the first Gulf War.

However, there was not a 'universal belief' that he currently possessed WMD in 2003. By neocon standards the statement: "the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction…" is truthful, if deceptive.

Part of the "duty" of neo-cons is to sow doubt and mistrust about intelligence, so that the minions who aren't independent enough to figure things out on their own can be told what to think: "this confuses me. . . what does (fill-in-the-blank) say about it?"

One way of doing this is the "attack the messenger" tactic they love so much-- they did it to Joe Wilson, now they're doing it to the entire intelligence community, "don't trust them, they have a hidden agenda-- trust US!" (as if they didn't have a hidden agenda themselves).

The whole neo-con ideal is to remake the world in this western utopia image, no matter what reality tells you, no matter what the consequences: "DAMMIT, if we don't bomb Iran the terrorists win and the USA will be turned into an Islamo-fascist theocracy!! Tell those stupid intelligence experts to shut up or they'll ruin everything!"

J. McCutchen

It's not only the NeoCons who deserve a bashing, it's our entire foreign policy establishment.

Many of you "old TPM Timers" will recall Bruce Jentleson's posts urging the viability of coercive diplomacy against Tehran back in 2005(?).

Well trouble is - there wasn't anything to sanction for!

Now how sad is that? Our entire US foreign policy elite - from one end of the political spectrum to the other - debating phantasms - AGAIN

But sadly, incorrect spelling.

All politicians are egotists, same as movie stars and pop musicians: they all want the spotlight on them as often as possible-- for pop stars it means more movie or cd revenue, for politicians it means more publicity and thus more campaign funds and then more votes, and the wheel keeps rolling.

I don't think Kucinich's IDEAS are all that bad, so I will forgive him the "me, me, me" aspect of his answers.

Yes indeed, but of course why would Cheney or Podhoretz ever consider the plight of the working classes, they themselves are wealthy enough that $10 gallons of gas won't effect them much.

Well written Larry except for this "serious threats can be resolved with diplomacy rather than rely on testosterone laden military fantasies"

It has nothing to do with testosterone or balls i.e. courage. Bush and Cheney jump headfirst into one fiasco after another out of fear of the previous failures catching up with them.

I've seen military men's explainations of what they would have to do to Iran. Essentially, to "make sure" or do our best to destroy any nuclear capable or enabling facilites we would, indeed, have to blast the shit out of Iran because we are talking about literally thousands upon thousands of targets all over their country.

By "F" word, do you mean "frustration"?

I try to avoid letting my frustration show. I'll continue trying.

MW

The cherry on top of the NIE sundae is that Valerie Plame was working on the Iran nukes question when her covert status was outed by the Bushco creeps.

Regarding Bolton and his troglodytic cronies; at this point, I simply want to see them tarred and feathered...and set free in Iraq.

Well.... it won't affect them adversely, it may well affect them favorably.

Nice to see that Kuncinich's socialist ideas as Mayor of Cleveland have helped land it as No. 10 on the most dangerous cities in America.

http://money.aol.com/mortgage/dangerous-cities

Why do people keep drifting to these far-left ideas when they have been proven over and over again to not work? Isn't doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results a definition of insanity?

Just a little clarification,Im certainly not campaigning for Kucinich.But just because he says "me, me me" clearly while the others do it obliquely doesn't suggest he would make any better or worse a "leader".I was simply pointing out where being"correct" gets you in a Spectacular Debate.

Isn't anyone on here concerned that Iran HAD a covert nuclear weapons program atleast until the fall of 2003?

What does that say about them?

There needs to be a better definition of what is meant by "covert nuclear weapons program". One of the difficult parts of WMD, especially where I've had the most experience, biological warfare, is that you have to understand the threat to be able to conceptualize several things. You have to have some concept how the weapons are made, in order to:


  1. Define intelligence systems to detect them and assess their potential -- and effect if used

  2. Understand their effects well enough to plan defenses and mitigation. BW is really tricky because a lot of this is perfectly relevant to public health.


As far as the Iranians and nuclear weapons -- and I can talk somewhat technically about nuclear weapons -- it's an open secret that the Israelis have gone far beyond research. The Iranians are in range of Israeli weapons.

An axiom of intelligence is that you make estimates principally on capability, rather than on what you believe the decisionmakers' intentions may be. After all, decisionmakers change but you still have the WMDs.

Now, the basic principles of making weapons-grade plutonium, as opposed to fuel-grade, are generally public. Where things get sensitive are in how efficient you can make a nuclear device, so you can translate a Pu-239 production capacity into number and yield of threats. I don't have a simple answer where the sort of research needed to understand that runs into the NPT. Do you?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Re:  Isn't doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results a definition of insanity? 

I don't know bobo.  Do you expect something different when you go down the thread and give everyone a "1?"  You deserve to be troll-rated, but since by your own definition you are insane, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Jan

The National Review editors are a riot as well.

From their latest offering:

"Of course, all this assumes that the NIE is accurate and impartial — and there is reason to doubt that. It’s no secret that careerists at the CIA and State have been less interested in implementing the president’s policies on Iran, Iraq, and North Korea than in sabotaging them at every opportunity. Sources close to the intelligence community question the objectivity of the NIE’s Iran conclusions, and tell us that three principal authors of the report are longtime critics of the administration’s policy who have axes to grind."

After that, NPod gave them each a biscuit.

bobespirit2112 said:

Isn't anyone on here concerned that Iran HAD a covert nuclear weapons program atleast until the fall of 2003?

And if they did, how does it concern me?

markg8 said:

It has nothing to do with testosterone or balls i.e. courage. Bush and Cheney jump headfirst into one fiasco after another out of fear of the previous failures catching up with them.


Mark, heh, truly.

Well, Bobo, what does it say about us that we are the only country to drop nukes on civilians (or anyone else for that matter)?  What does it say about us that we keep quiet about Israel having nukes; that we are in bed with the same Pakistani leader who rewarded his chief scientist for selling nukes to god-knows-who? 

Iraq DIDN't have a nuke program and look at what happened to them.  Who could blame Iran for wanting membership in the deadly club we started?  However, to your question...

Isn't anyone on here concerned that Iran HAD a covert nuclear weapons program atleast until the fall of 2003?

What does that say about them?

Well, the fact that they HAD one and abandoned it might say they are smarter than you think.  Libia had a nuke program and gave it up.  Now they are our trading partner again.  Maybe they are just on the right side of this fence.  Iranians aren't stupid.  They have gained mightily from the Iraq war fiasco; they may have decided that when you're winning, you might as well enjoy it instead of shooting themselves in the foot by making themselves a pariah (or one part of the axis of evil). 

Which county is winning in the world-opinion olympics?  It isn't the US, that's for sure.  Maybe the Iranians decided to declare their Mission Accomplished without going to the expense and danger of having a nuke program.

Jan

Does anyone believe that this new NIE will deter the Bush/Cheney gang from their appointed rounds?

Not unless Bush/Rice are getting concerned with their place in History. The Annapolis meeting, a new NIE that allows Bush to save face and not attack Iran. And, the Marines want to get out of Iraq and go to Afghanistan, hmmmm. I can see the headline now, "Bush orders new strategy, drawdown of troops in Iraq."

Condi gets to go to Iran, Bush to Israel, and all of a sudden they look like world leaders.

Jan,

just as in Iraq, it all depends on what the meaning of the word "had" is.

How right you are!

I agree. So many of the things that allowed him to bamboozle us into war are missing this time around. He cannot credibly claim that they are a "grave and gathering" danger; he cannot rely on ANY European support; and I don't see how the media can cheerlead the rush to war with this NIE out there (OK, this third one may be a bit of a stretch).

Without 60+% public support, I don't see him attacking Iran. His fellow Republicans won't allow it, and another phony war would put them out of power for a generation.

You willing to apply that line about doing the same thing over and over against and expecting different results being a definition of insanity to people who voted for George Bush twice?


Thank, you, leftAhead. I was reading down the thread, waiting to see whether anybody mentioned this fact.

HEY, LARRY!!

In your opinion, did the loss of Ms. Plame and her network of contacts have an impact on the "intelligence community's" ability to make the right call on Iran (say, a couple of years ago)? What I mean by that is, did the whitehouse know they couldn't push her around, so they found a way to get rid of her? Is it possible that the outing of Plame was an intentional "two-fer"?

What do you think, Larry?

Why aren't any of the pundits on TV talking about this aspect, when it comes to the current story? I have yet to hear anyone mention Plame's name when talking about the new NIE and the apparent about-face by the "intelligence community".

-- ARG

Actually most of us who voted for him twice got what we expected...you guys just don't like it.

Didn't we sell Saddam the chemical WMDs he used against Iran and the Kurds? Anyone know?

How is being #10 on AOL's list of "most dangerous cities" in 2007 the fault of the city's mayor in 1977-1979??

To me, *that* sounds insane.

As for his "socialist ideas", he was run out of town in 1979 after single-handedly saving the city from extortion by the banks over a public utility they wanted to privatize.

"If Muny Light had been swallowed by CEI, he believed, it would have cost Cleveland millions of dollars in higher rates and especially burdened working-class homeowners."

Imagine, a politician taking a principled stand, even if it might cost him an election. Would that we had more such politicians today.

Eventually, "Clevelanders [came] to believe Kucinich had been right about Muny Light, especially after members of a congressional staff concluded, in 1980, that the default had been politically motivated. History was ... rewritten by the loser."

"In 1993, then-Cleveland Mayor Michael White cited Kucinich's 'wisdom' in not selling the utility, and in 1998 the council honored the deposed mayor for having the 'courage and foresight' to stand up to the banks. The utility, now known as Cleveland Public Power, provides low-cost electricity that saved the city an estimated $195 million between 1985 and 1995. One of the new buildings in its expanded plant is named for Kucinich."

"'Two things about Dennis have never changed,' said Jack Schulman, a Harvard-educated lawyer who worked in the beleaguered Kucinich administration. 'One, he is absolutely honest and you never have to wonder whether he's taken a position because someone bought him off. Two, he's committed to working people.'"

We should have a little more of such "socialism". And then the crime rate would go down everywhere. Crime activity is strongly corelated to local economic conditions -- why do you think Detroit came in at #1 on that list?

Source:

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0123-04.htm

-- ARG

Unless the WMDs are being toted around in landscaping trucks by illegal South American immigrants, I don't think Lou Dobbs has a clue.

You expected the lying?

And the spying?

And the cronyism designed to infest every executive branch department with incompetent (but loyal) "Bushies"??

If you expected all that -- if that's what you actually wanted, and voted for -- then you must be pretty happy indeed.

But also insane.

-- ARG

We definitely did not sell him ready-to-use WMDs, or Schedule I, and IIRC, Schedule II chemicals under the CWC. He did get dual-use chemical precursors, and some production equipment, from several countries includng the US, France, and Russia. In the biological program, the key large-scale fermentors, refrigerated centrifuges, lyophilizers, and mills came from France and Russia.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

The fact that we dropped nukes on Japan, though sad, probably saved the life of my father and maybe the life of your uncle, father, grandfather, etc. who were practicing for the invasion of Japan on the island of Okinawa when the bombs were dropped.

Those bombings likely saved the lives of 200-300K US military men and another 500K-2000K Japanese military and civilians. Yes, to the 250k-500k killed, obviously, it was a horrible result. And that is why it is so important we work so hard to ensure it never happens again.

But, think about the simple fact that we had to drop a second one before they gave up. What does that tell you about how willing the Japanese leadership at the time was willing to decimate their own people in the defense of their "empire"?

I don't think Iran is winning in the world-opinion olympics over the U.S. I don't see the any nation running to backup Iran. In fact, the Euros seem to be holding in line with Bush.

Yeah, I see alot of foreign nationals wanting in line at the Iranian embassies all of the world waiting to get their Iranian entry visas like they are at the US embassies. How is it that despite the "horrible" things Bush has wrought on the world, America is still the country so many millions all over the world still want and work to come to?!

Hey, we can agree Iraq was a mistake, but the fact we were there is a big reason why the Iranians gave up the program. They truly were afraid they would be next. You might not like the method, but you can't argue with the results. We got them to give up their program (for now), that's a victory for us and a loss for the Iranian hard-liners who wanted the bomb.

So, you voted for Treason against the Constitution and for criminal conspiracy against the people of this country?

You are either a traitor or an idiot, or perhaps both.

We can agree, perhaps, that Iraq is a *mess*.

But I'm not sure it was a "mistake".

I'm not convinced that the outcome is all that much different from what the neocons wanted -- not what they *said* they wanted, or expected, but what they really wanted, which might have been: General chaos, a means to loot the treasury and funnel money to cronies and, perhaps, build a slush fund for other secret activities.

-- ARG

Your point is well taken. I *am* campaigning for Kucinich, precisely because he is "correct" so much of the time. Which does serve one well in a debate.

Radio is DK's best medium, too. ;-)

-- ARG

Fascinating!  You don't even believe your own BS!  I would cut & paste it, but I won't bother. 

Has it ever occurred to you that the other people/countries who are seeking nukes are hoping to prevent their "dads, or uncles, or _____ (subsitute personal reference to make it seem warm & fuzzy to drop a nuke on women, children and men going about their daily lives)from dying at the hands of an agressor?  Is it only American lives that count? 

By they way, I DON'T LIKE THE METHOD, AND I MOST CERTAINLY CAN ARGUE WITH THE RESULTS.  George Bush can't take the credit for Iran benching their nuke program any more than an arsonist can take credit for a home-owner cancelling his redecoration project.

Everything the Bush regime has done has been a fiasco, and speaking of EUROS, the dollar is in the worst place it has been in a generation. 

Jan

SFCWallace said:

Actually most of us who voted for him twice got what we expected...you guys just don't like it.

You mean you fully expected Bush to destroy our reputation around the world, destroy the federal surplus and run up a $400 billion deficit while adding $3 or 4 trillion to our national debt? You fully expected Bush to cause the taxpayer to pay $1 Billion per day in interest on Bush's deficit and National Debt?

You fully expected Bush to push a tax cut that benefitted the richest 3% the most?
You Expecetd an Imperial Presidency? An Administration obsessed with secrecy?

You fully expected Bush to invade a country that was no threat to us? You expected Bush to give away no bid contracts in Iraq that totalled 10s of billions?

You expected Bush to sign a record number of signing statements?

You expected an Administration to ignore legal subpoenas from Congress? You expected Bush to ignore Habeus Corpus?

You expected Bush to be honest? To learn from mistakes? And you expected him to use his office to punish people who spoke out against him? You expected him and his gang to out a secret CIA agent working on the proliferation of WMD?

And did you expect Bush to lie like he does when you voted for him? Lie to get us into the Iraq war, lie about the "progress" in Iraq, lie about the cronies he hired, lie about the economy, about job creation, lie about when he first learned about the newly released NIE?

So, you expected all of that and yet you still voted for him. Interesting.

What does that tell you about how willing the Japanese leadership at the time was willing to decimate their own people in the defense of their "empire"?
Out of sequence, why is "empire" in quotes? Empires rarely depend on morality. How did the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere not qualify as an empire, obviously in different states of waxing and waning?
As far as the Japanese leadership, you apparently haven't studied the period, including the leadership behavior at places such as Suicide Cliff on Saipan. Unless you show that you are actually interested in the history and actors, as well as some of the miscommunications both ways from approximately July 1944 to August 1945, I won't get into a huge amount of detail, other than to suggest you are projecting Western culture onto the Japanese system of the time. The key leadership of the time, before Hirohito's unprecedented intervention, was perfectly willing to have the entire population of Japan die if that would preserve the spiritual essence, bound significantly to the kami of the Throne.
Now, based on the information available at the time, I believe the right decision was made in using the bombs. I am completely puzzled, though, on any particular parallel between Japanese and Iranian culture. Would you care to explain, or would you prefer to emote? Would you advance some specific scenarios, with consequences, of what Iran would do with nuclear weapons and alternative delivery systems?

When you put lipstick on a pig does it look like a beautiful woman? That would have to be the case, with 100% probability and 100% confidence, before there would be a 1% probability that the B and C show would even remotely resemble world leaders.

Hoppy in Sacramento

hoppy,

heh, heh, truly.

world leaders in their minds only

:-) :-)

Oh come on, Johnny! Nothing you listed would rise to the occasion of impeachment. The current reps save time and money-sucking impeachments for high crimes and misdemeanors that threaten the welfare of the country. (say, for example, like Clinton's choice to kiss and not tell). ;)

As for our leaders abandoning we the people: The leaders can't abandon the people unless the people abandon themselves. A government of the people won't run itself and our collective inaction creates the vaccume that special interests fill right now.

I agree there are some reps and candidates who are hedging and vying for position. Just listen to some of the candidates gravel during the debates is such a turn-off. These are not strong, red-blooded-American leaders. They come across as expert brown nosers, devoid of all leadership qualities. I wish any traitor-trash luck with their positions when the American spirit catches up.

I'm thinking it is more important to give my children a better country than the latest lead-filled toys this year. We might all do better if we get out of the malls and shut off the tv propaganda long enough to better monitor our reps and participate more in government.

There are world leaders that come to mind......link

Great link!  But don't tease us!

Jan

Isn't this NIE release is an attempt to absolve the US of coming aerial attacks on Iran from another country in the neighborhood? The NIE release just changes the pretext of the war. Now it would be to save our friend from the counter attack by Iran.

The Bush admin went to war against Joe Wilson and his wife to save face about their lies about Iraq and now the same admin is putting out an estimate that contradicts the President and the admin in a major way. What giveth?

I don't think Iran is winning in the world-opinion Olympics over the U.S.

Let's see now. Among our traditional Western European allies, only Germany thinks Iran is a greater danger to Mid East peace than the US in Iraq. In the UK, 41% think the US in Iraq is more dangerous than Iran, while only 34% think Iran is the most worrisome. In France, the numbers are 36% for the US as dangerous and 31% for Iran. Spain comes in with 56% thinking the US is more dangerous and only 38% worried about Iran.

... America is still the country so many millions all over the world still want and work to come to?!

Let's see again. Perhaps you should leave out the "all over the world" part. In 2006, 30.7% of the 'lined up' were from Mexico, followed by the Philippines (4.4%), China (4.1%) and India (4%). Compare that to 1960 when no one country contributed to 15% or more of the total immigrant population.

As to why the Iranians gave up in 2003, the jury is still out, but hey, if you want to think it's because of the Iraq invasion, go right ahead.



...the delusional is no longer marginal. It has come in from the fringe, to sit in the seat of power in the Oval Office and in Congress. Bill Moyers

"And if they did, how does it concern me?"

Amen to that. Israel has had a covert nuclear weapons program since 1959.
Look what its done for them: The US lavishes tons of money, state of the art weapons systems and politcal backing on Israel. Hell, even the 2008 presidential candidates--most of them--try and outdo one another in proving how much they love Israel.

India developed her nukes outside of the NPT and look how much trade and soon, nuclear reactors we toss their way.

Ditto for Pakistan. We reward them by giving Musharraf billions and billions of dollars each year.... in CASH.

Iran is surrounded by the U.S. and our 10,000 or so nukes. We've got them in the Arabian Gulf on board our aircraft carriers; we've got the in the Indian Ocean on Diego Garci; we might even have them in our colonial project in the nation formerly known as Iraq.

And Israel is threatening to initiate a bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear energy program.

So why would one more nuke in the ME make any difference?

Maybe if the ME was made a nuke free zone, some sanity could return.

"But isn't it annoying?"

"Annoying" doesn't begin to describe it. I cannot watch him at all. It makes my skin crawl. I had an aged relative who lived in Hamburg during the '30s and '40s. The Nazis had loudspeakers on every other streetcorner, through which they played martial music and speeches by Hitler, Goebbels, and their pals, all day long. She said it was so disgusting that eventually she was able just to tune it out. She didn't have a choice about hearing it. I do.

"What giveth?"

 

 

Infighting? 

Stephen Hadley was on NPR, emphasizing that 1) Iran did (at one time) have a program, and 2) they still are enriching uranium, which is "the hardest part" of a weapons program.

Does Hadley really not know what he is talking about, or is it policy to mislead us about weapons design and production? Uranium enrichment might be slow and difficult, but it has not been central to weapons design since WW II. Plutonium from used reactor fuel is used for essentially all deliverable nuclear weapons, in my understanding.

It's a policy to keep us frightened so the can manipulate us through fear. Then they try to get us to follow any damn fool venture they want such as invading Iraq or bombing Iran.

You either have fissionable material, or you don't. Assuming you do not have the technology base for multistage weapons, there is a huge amount of technology involved in the (high explosive) compression system, pit geometry, neutron source, use of tampers and reflectors, etc.

As far as reprocessing, the chances are that a country, such as the US, might have a reasonable idea of how frequently the elements are changed, which, in turn, affects the Pu239:Pu240 ratio. Too much 240, no boom. Fizzle with local radiation release, probably.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

1983Merman said:


Maybe if the ME was made a nuke free zone, some sanity could return.

What an excellent idea.

Tim,

interesing, isn't it, that one guy who was right about Iraq, Scott Ritter, cannot be found on the Sunday Morning News shows, but its a haven for the always wrong on Iraq gang; McCain, Lieberman, Kristol, Brooks, Friedman, Perle, Kagen, various and sundry Republicans from Congress, etc.

They were smart enough to want to strengthen their country?

All of that is debatable. Too bad the pilot just died. You could have nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

<>Very close, notthere, but no cigar. Try this...

(yuk, yuk) 

<>Neoboho

<>

Excellent description, LongTom (diagnosis?) Remember when Bush flubbed that "Fool me once..." aphorism? Mark Crispin Miller offered up a pretty convincing explanation, in my view. It was Mom's fault - Barbara apparently raised her boys under the pressure of never failing at anything, and certainly never admitting to failure. If you messed-up, you had to spin it like it was actually a good thing. It's very Pavlovian...he just couldn't utter "shame on me" even though it was right in the script. Babs was at the electric switch.

Neoboho

Illlich, haven't you noticed that all the contenders say me, me, me when they get the floor?  Bill Richarson is particularly good at it.  Why the double standard?  Last time I checked me, me, me is a very standard campaign posture.

Kucinich rules! 

Neoboho

Bobesprit, seriously, Jan is correct.  Please read on this site the information concerning the purpose of our rating system. You are abusing it.  The rating system was never intended to be an argument or debate point.  If you disagree with a commentor, make your argumnent in a friendly and informed manner.  Rating it "1" is silly.

Neoboho

You may be right (wondering if it will make any difference).  I'm leaning toward the other direction, like others have written, I think the dynamics of election year will have a play in this, and the net effect will to be to restrain Bush/Cheney.  And the restraint will come from Republicans, especially those who seek office in the next election.  

If this isn't a classic re-enactment of The Boy Who Cried Wolf I don't what is. And like the fairy tale, when no one believes the President anymore then we are vulnerable to a real threat. 

Neoboho

bobespirit2112 said:

Why do people keep drifting to these far-left ideas when they have been proven over and over again to not work?

Social Security didn't work? Medicare didn't work? Medicaid? Unemployment compensation? 40 hour week didn't work?
Workplace safety?

Progressive taxation didn't work? Food stamps didn't work? Workmen's Comp didn't work? Minimum wage? Women's Suffrage?

Federal Deposit Insurance didn't work? Collective bargaining? Civil Rights?

Head Start didn't work? Student loans? The Voting Rights Act didn't work? Child Labor Laws? Consumer Product Safety Commission?
Public Broadcasting?

Americans with Disability Act? Family and Medical Leave Act?

None of that worked, heh, Wally?

Oh, by the way, the Republicans fought against just about every one of those acts.

You would do well to turn off Limbaugh and Hannity and open a book.

As I mentioned earlier tonight in this post, directed to Larry Johnson:

“… the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction…”

I just love that line!

The March, 2003 interview with French President Jacques Chirac by Christiane Amanpour, that was aired on 60 Minutes should also be remembered:

CBS News 60 Minutes - March 16, 2003
Chirac Makes His Case On Iraq

Amanpour: Do you believe that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction; for instance, chemical or biological weapons?

Chirac: Well, I don’t know. I have no evidence to support that… It seems that there are no nuclear weapons - no nuclear weapons program. That is something that the inspectors seem to be sure of.

As for weapons of mass destruction, bacteriological, biological, chemical, we don’t know. And that is precisely what the inspectors’ mandate is all about. But rushing into war, rushing into battle today is clearly a disproportionate response.

Amanpour: Here, many commentators, many newspapers have been hailing you as a hero. They have even said your position should make you qualify for a Nobel Peace Prize. Of course, in America, in Britain, they call you an appeaser, that you are appeasing this terrible dictator who may have weapons of mass destruction.

Chirac: I feel the same way about Saddam Hussein as George Bush or Tony Blair. There is a rather long list of countries where there are dictatorships, and if we were going to wage war to get rid of all of them without pursuing all other options, we are going to be very busy

Amanpour: You have said that inspections were working in great part because of the massive US and British force that is arrayed outside Saddam Hussein’s doorstep. Wouldn’t it be even more effective if France had sent troops also to double and triple the threat?

Chirac: I have said that it is indeed thanks to the pressure of British and American troops that the Iraqi authorities and Saddam Hussein have changed their position and have agreed to cooperate with the inspectors..

So I would say that the Americans have already won, and they haven’t fired a single bullet.

 

So I would say that the Americans have already won, and they haven’t fired a single bullet.

Sigh.

Remember the argument that we had to actually attack because the soldiers were going to fry in summer heat if we waited?

Considering that on Okinawa the Japanese literally fought to almost the last man losing 100,000 troops, and that according to John Masters in his classic book, The Road Past Mandalay:

...there was our common single enemy, the Japanese. They are the bravest people I have ever met... they believed in something and were willing to die for it, for any smallest detail that would help achieve it... they pressed home their attacks when no other troops in the world would have done so....By 1944 (in SE Asia) scores of thousands of Allied soldiers had fallen unwounded into enemy hands as prisoners, because our philosophy and our history have taught us to accept surrender....By 1944, on the Burma front....the number of Japanese captured unwounded was about six. Frugal and bestial, barbarous and brave, artistic and brutal, they were the dushman (enemy-Hindi) and we now set about , in all seriousness, the task of killing every one of them.

A reading of Prisoners of The Japanese is also educational. Who can say how many would have died without 'the bomb', perhaps as Masters described, with an invasion of the homeland, it would have been necessary to 'kill every one of them'.

This crap about the GOP wanting to create a committee to investigate the National Intelligence Estimate about Iran's nuclear capabilities is just a ploy to get the media off the FACT the George W. Bush and Dick Cheney BOLD FACED LIED to the American people for the past 4 months. They knew all along that Iran had stopped their plans in 2003, yet chose to push WWIII.

Note this new committee will have 6 months to DECIDE if the NIE is valid. Giving Bush/Cheney past the time where American's where even remember these LIES.

If you felt that Bill Clinton's bold faced lie on live television about having sex with Monica and the fact that he lied to a court of law about having sex was valid enough to impeach Clinton - you have absolutely NO excuse to allow Bush and Cheney and EXCUSE for their lies. Their lies COULD have started a brand NEW WAR. And because of these previous lies, who's to say they won't continue to lie (since we allow them to) for the next year and force us into War with Iran before leaving office?

Senator Biden swears he'll start plans for impeachment if Bush attacks Iran. TOO LATE BY THEN BIDEN! They already attacked and Iran will surely retaliate.

Articles of impeachment should immediate be brought up for BOTH the President and the Vice President. Otherwise, even if Congress tries to investigate or ask questions, Bush will push his executive order in their faces. Articles wouldn't allow that priviledge.

Do it now before it's too late. Think of future generations. There will someday be another president, man/woman, Dem/Rep/Indp that will do harm to America and that Congress will try to impeach him/her - but they'll be able to use the Bush admin as an excuse why Congress can't touch them. You let Bush/Cheney get away with lies -


Coonsey's View

HTTP://WWW.FREEWEBS.COM/COONSEY/

I have one major argument with your post.  You said that Bush/Cheney have been lying to us for 4 months.  You are short by several years, and several of them qualify for impeachment.  High crimes?  Misdemeaners?  It is ridiculous that they have not been called to account!

You are right.  The only way is through impeachment because they can claim executive priviledge for everything else.

Jan

Yes indeed the US sold "insecticides" chemicals to Iraq which we knew full well without any doubt whatsoever were being used for (in fact we removed Saddam's Iraq from the list of terrorist nations to allow the trade to happen):

U.S. Had Key Role in Iraq Buildup Trade in Chemical Arms Allowed Despite Their Use on Iranians, Kurds

By Michael Dobbs
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 30, 2002; Page A01

The administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush authorized the sale to Iraq of numerous items that had both military and civilian applications, including poisonous chemicals and deadly biological viruses, such as anthrax and bubonic plague....
According to a sworn court affidavit prepared by Teicher in 1995, the United States "actively supported the Iraqi war effort by supplying the Iraqis with billions of dollars of credits, by providing military intelligence and advice to the Iraqis, and by closely monitoring third country arms sales to Iraq to make sure Iraq had the military weaponry required." Teicher said in the affidavit that former CIA director William Casey used a Chilean company, Cardoen, to supply Iraq with cluster bombs that could be used to disrupt the Iranian human wave attacks. Teicher refuses to discuss the affidavit.

At the same time the Reagan administration was facilitating the supply of weapons and military components to Baghdad, it was attempting to cut off supplies to Iran under "Operation Staunch." ..

When United Nations weapons inspectors were allowed into Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War, they compiled long lists of chemicals, missile components, and computers from American suppliers, including such household names as Union Carbide and Honeywell, which were being used for military purposes.

A 1994 investigation by the Senate Banking Committee turned up dozens of biological agents shipped to Iraq during the mid-'80s under license from the Commerce Department, including various strains of anthrax, subsequently identified by the Pentagon as a key component of the Iraqi biological warfare program. The Commerce Department also approved the export of insecticides to Iraq, despite widespread suspicions that they were being used for chemical warfare.

The fact that Iraq was using chemical weapons was hardly a secret. In February 1984, an Iraqi military spokesman effectively acknowledged their use by issuing a chilling warning to Iran. "The invaders should know that for every harmful insect, there is an insecticide capable of annihilating it . . . and Iraq possesses this annihilation insecticide." ...

In December 1988, Dow Chemical sold $1.5 million of pesticides to Iraq, despite U.S. government concerns that they could be used as chemical warfare agents. An Export-Import Bank official reported in a memorandum that he could find "no reason" to stop the sale, despite evidence that the pesticides were "highly toxic" to humans and would cause death "from asphyxiation."

The U.S. policy of cultivating Hussein as a moderate and reasonable Arab leader continued right up until he invaded Kuwait in August 1990, documents show. When the then-U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, April Glaspie, met with Hussein on July 25, 1990, a week before the Iraqi attack on Kuwait, she assured him that Bush "wanted better and deeper relations," according to an Iraqi transcript of the conversation. "President Bush is an intelligent man," the ambassador told Hussein, referring to the father of the current president. "He is not going to declare an economic war against Iraq."

Did you want to get into some specifics, or just rely on third-hand sources?


we knew full well without any doubt whatsoever were being used for...

Is that the editorial or the imperial we, and are you prepared to discuss the science involved?

In developing biological weapons, for example, obtaining the cultures themselves is the simplest part. Bacillus anthracis, the pathogen of anthrax, is quite widespread in nature. I'd have to count, but on the International Society for Infectious Diseases mailing list, I'd say there's at least one outbreak per week. Perhaps the most common synonym for anthrax is "woolsorter's disease". It's endemic in many parts of the world, particularly the Middle East but certainly including North America. On a worldwide basis, it is an important animal pathogen; it is often not realized that Louis Pasteur's first immunization was not the therapeutic vaccine for rabies, but a preventive vaccine for anthrax in sheep. Veterinary reference laboratories and veterinary vaccine production have legitimate needs, and yes, dual use is possible.

That Saddam did not actually use biological weapons indicates that it just might be harder to weaponize than many think. I still chuckle at one of the Senate Banking Committee lists about the horrible things being provided, and I'm sure good Muslims would agree. One of the Saccharomyces species, for example, is an excellent yeast for Belgian-style beer.

All data about Saddam's use of chemicals on his own people and the Iranians involved Chemical Weapons Convention Schedule I toxic chemicals with little or no nonmilitary use. If insecticides were so lethal, and parathion, especially, is no spring breeze, why was sarin (2-(fluoro-methyl-phosphoryl)oxypropane) used rather than an insecticide?

While I agree that a purer form of mustard gas can be prepared from thiodiglycol rather than using the Levinstein reaction, I would note that all of the intermediates involved have industrial uses.

Yes, it is useful to have known strains, but it is far more difficult to build the large-scale fermentation and processing equipment. Unfortunately, these are dual-use technologies. The key manufacturing equipment came from France and Russia.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Go tell it to the washington post

"Had industrial uses" - maybe they had, but we knew for an ABSOLUTE FACT that the chemcials we gave saddam were NOT being used in any industry and were instead being used to murder people.

WE ARE ABSOLUTELY, TOTALLY LIABLE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR SADDAM'S ATROCITIES>

Not only did we provide him with the chemical, we provided him with the intelligence, the targetting info, the money, and the political cover - AGAIN MAKING US TOTALLY RESPONSIBLE for his conduct.

Now, I know that you people in denial like to squirm and try to evade this by, for example, pointing out that the Europeans also provided material to saddam - this is the old "others did it too"excuse which in no way whatsoever relieves us of responsibility.

OUR OWN INTELLIGENCE PEOPLE HAVE SAID THAT OUR OWN CHEMICALS WERE USED IN SADDAM"S CHEMICAL PROGRAMS.

Now, I know that you people in denial
I shall infer, by that, and "tell it to the Washington Post", that you are either uninterested in discussing possible inaccuracies, are not sufficiently familiar with other than news reports to do so, or both.
You haven't identified "we" in assorted characteristics, or which intelligence people, or any other details. I have read the Senate Banking Committee report on biological agents, and am quite familiar with the technology. Are you?
So far, you have demonstrated that the technology with which you are most comfortable is the CAPS LOCK KEY. I am not going to defend all US conduct, but I see value in a less emotional discussion of what happened, what lessons were learned, and how things could be improved. The issue with thiodiglycol, for example, was not the chemical itself, but the quantity. Isopropanol, however, has so many uses (e.g., drugstore rubbing alcohol) that intention can't be inferred, unless the same order included methylphosphonyl difluoride (DF).
DF is a Schedule I chemical under the Chemical Weapons Convention, with no general uses other than chemical warfare. If this agent, or its precursors, were not being shipped, the US was not shipping Sarin (GB), which the Iraqis did use. Where did the DF come from, or is that something you want to wave your figurative arms about? I'd like to know the answer, but it will take some research.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

You can infer that I am uninteresting in debating the FACT that the US backed Saddam Hussein and was DIRECTLY AND KNOWINGLY FULLY COMPLICIT IN HIS CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM AND US and other atrocitis because there are a bunch of flat-earthers like you who just don't want to face up to the ugly facts and will instead pull this "I know more about it that you do because I'm such an expert and can throw around jargon a lot" as if that makes a tiny diffference.

The US provided Saddam with chemicals that WE KNEW FOR AN ABSOLUTE UNQUESTIONABLE FACT were being used to kill people.

We removed his regime from the State Department list of Terror Nations so as to ease the transfer of "dual use" technology which we knew PERFECTLY WELL was going to be used to murder people.

We sent him helicopters that we KNEW FOR AN ABSOLUTE FACT were being used to kill Kurds.

WE Covered up for his atrocities.

We FUNDED his military.

WE sent bio weapons material to his weapons labs

We provided him with cluster bombs and other munitions.

We provided him with "agricultural guarantees" that we knew were diverted to military use, and we knew that he couldn't pay back (Look up the BNL scandal)

When the Iranian showed that Saddam had used chemical weapons on the Kurds WE TRIED TO SHIFT THE BLAME ONTO THE IRANIANS.

Those are the facts.

FACTS.

Now go on telling me about Schedules I bullshit.
No one is interested.

I just wanted to commend you on your fluent ability to make clear, coherent, compelling points, precisely researched and with unimpeachable supporting data. Now, speaking of being interested, why should I pay any attention to you? Apparently, shouting "bullshit" is your idea of convincing people that you are informative. Personally, I found that technique fairly ineffective, when I was about nine.

I might even agree with some of your arguments, but it's fairly clear you prefer to yell than actually improve nonproliferation safeguards.


--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

With all due respect, Howard, and not to defend his particular style of argumentation, there is other evidence to back what abdul Hass is saying, which occurred on a much larger plane than the technical level you are questioning on.

Unsurprisingly, Rumsfeld was the key player, as Special Envoy to the ME in the early 80s. Here is a link to an article that outlines the timetable of Rumsfeld and the US gov's action vis a vis Iran and Iraq, along with some key grafs:

Published on Friday, August 2, 2002 by CommonDreams.org The Saddam in Rumsfeld’s Closet by Jeremy Scahill “Man and the turtle are very much alike. Neither makes any progress without sticking his neck out.” —Donald Rumsfeld

Five years before Saddam Hussein’s now infamous 1988 gassing of the Kurds, a key meeting took place in Baghdad that would play a significant role in forging close ties between Saddam Hussein and Washington. It happened at a time when Saddam was first alleged to have used chemical weapons. The meeting in late December 1983 paved the way for an official restoration of relations between Iraq and the US, which had been severed since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

With the Iran-Iraq war escalating, President Ronald Reagan dispatched his Middle East envoy, a former secretary of defense, to Baghdad with a hand-written letter to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and a message that Washington was willing at any moment to resume diplomatic relations.

That envoy was Donald Rumsfeld.

Rumsfeld’s December 19-20, 1983 visit to Baghdad made him the highest-ranking US official to visit Iraq in 6 years. He met Saddam and the two discussed “topics of mutual interest,” according to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry. “[Saddam] made it clear that Iraq was not interested in making mischief in the world,” Rumsfeld later told The New York Times. “It struck us as useful to have a relationship, given that we were interested in solving the Mideast problems.”

Just 12 days after the meeting, on January 1, 1984, The Washington Post reported that the United States “in a shift in policy, has informed friendly Persian Gulf nations that the defeat of Iraq in the 3-year-old war with Iran would be ‘contrary to U.S. interests’ and has made several moves to prevent that result.”

In March of 1984, with the Iran-Iraq war growing more brutal by the day, Rumsfeld was back in Baghdad for meetings with then-Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz. On the day of his visit, March 24th, UPI reported from the United Nations: “Mustard gas laced with a nerve agent has been used on Iranian soldiers in the 43-month Persian Gulf War between Iran and Iraq, a team of U.N. experts has concluded... Meanwhile, in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, U.S. presidential envoy Donald Rumsfeld held talks with Foreign Minister Tarek Aziz (sic) on the Gulf war before leaving for an unspecified destination.”

The day before, the Iranian news agency alleged that Iraq launched another chemical weapons assault on the southern battlefront, injuring 600 Iranian soldiers. “Chemical weapons in the form of aerial bombs have been used in the areas inspected in Iran by the specialists,” the U.N. report said. “The types of chemical agents used were bis-(2-chlorethyl)-sulfide, also known as mustard gas, and ethyl N, N-dimethylphosphoroamidocyanidate, a nerve agent known as Tabun.”

Prior to the release of the UN report, the US State Department on March 5th had issued a statement saying “available evidence indicates that Iraq has used lethal chemical weapons.”

Commenting on the UN report, US Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick was quoted by The New York Times as saying, “We think that the use of chemical weapons is a very serious matter. We've made that clear in general and particular.”

Compared with the rhetoric emanating from the current administration, based on speculations about what Saddam might have, Kirkpatrick’s reaction was hardly a call to action.

Most glaring is that Donald Rumsfeld was in Iraq as the 1984 UN report was issued and said nothing about the allegations of chemical weapons use, despite State Department “evidence.” On the contrary, The New York Times reported from Baghdad on March 29, 1984, “American diplomats pronounce themselves satisfied with relations between Iraq and the United States and suggest that normal diplomatic ties have been restored in all but name.”

A month and a half later, in May 1984, Donald Rumsfeld resigned. In November of that year, full diplomatic relations between Iraq and the US were fully restored. Two years later, in an article about Rumsfeld’s aspirations to run for the 1988 Republican Presidential nomination, the Chicago Tribune Magazine listed among Rumsfeld’s achievements helping to “reopen U.S. relations with Iraq.” The Tribune failed to mention that this help came at a time when, according to the US State Department, Iraq was actively using chemical weapons.

Throughout the period that Rumsfeld was Reagan’s Middle East envoy, Iraq was frantically purchasing hardware from American firms, empowered by the White House to sell. The buying frenzy began immediately after Iraq was removed from the list of alleged sponsors of terrorism in 1982. According to a February 13, 1991 Los Angeles Times article:

“First on Hussein's shopping list was helicopters -- he bought 60 Hughes helicopters and trainers with little notice. However, a second order of 10 twin-engine Bell "Huey" helicopters, like those used to carry combat troops in Vietnam, prompted congressional opposition in August, 1983... Nonetheless, the sale was approved.”

In 1984, according to The LA Times, the State Department—in the name of “increased American penetration of the extremely competitive civilian aircraft market”—pushed through the sale of 45 Bell 214ST helicopters to Iraq. The helicopters, worth some $200 million, were originally designed for military purposes. The New York Times later reported that Saddam “transferred many, if not all [of these helicopters] to his military.”

In 1988, Saddam’s forces attacked Kurdish civilians with poisonous gas from Iraqi helicopters and planes. U.S. intelligence sources told The LA Times in 1991, they “believe that the American-built helicopters were among those dropping the deadly bombs.”

http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0802-01.htm

The damnation in this scenario is not the particulars of poison gas production, but the eagerness to do business with Saddam, and sell him the weapons and machinery that allowed him to build his military machine, and commit atrocities along the way--and then 8 years later cry alligator tears about the danger of Saddam as if they had nothing to do with it.

The damnation in this scenario is not the particulars of poison gas production, but the eagerness to do business with Saddam, and sell him the weapons and machinery that allowed him to build his military machine, and commit atrocities along the way--and then 8 years later cry alligator tears about the danger of Saddam as if they had nothing to do with it.
I have no dispute with there being a terrible willingness to do business with Saddam, and other things such as abandoning the Kurds in the Iran-Iraq conflict.
My concern, however, is that with all the Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD, as beloved by computer salesdroids) about WMD, what we do not need is more inaccuracy. Bush 43 lied about the threat, and more hysteria about it is something as needed as an auxiliary anus.
Unless you want the technical details, some of the things being claimed, variously by the Iranians, news organizations, and posturing politicians, simply make no sense. For example, I make no argument that the Iraqis used chemical weapons. Claiming that mustard (H) was mixed with Tabun (GA) throws doubt on the report, as GA is quickly lethal but H has a delayed, often crippling but not always lethal, effect. If you use GA, the victims are dead before H has any effect.
I simply want to see the FUD turned down, so it is possible to talk about the realities of WMD without either Administration lies or dramatic rhetoric. US relations with Iraq are a related but separate issue.
Drama about WMD is being used to stir up "homeland security" fears, in a manner that draws attention away from more plausible threats.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Agreed on the WMD hype. I think that we are addressing different issues, with my point attacking the right-wing interventionists, war profiteers and their propaganda machine which cast Iraq as Orwell's 'Eurasia' in this scenario.

We are in agreement in always having been at war with Eurasia.

My concern is that the Ministry of Truth keeps coming up with more and more FUD about WMD. One of the reasons I tend to bring up technical issues is that FUD, for whatever reason, tends not to stand up to detailed evaluation.

When I read news reports, for example, that talk about using combinations of chemical agents that make no tactical sense, or that a relatively small uranium enrichment cascade is tantamount to having a bomb, I smell something. When I read the Senate Banking Committee's horrified list of microbial cultures, I wonder why the committee couldn't have had some expert (as in having had basic microbiology) review it first. Some of the WMD claims are worthy of a cross between Monty Python and E.E. (Doc) Smith.

I eagerly await some spinmeister explaining that what they actually found were calculators and protractors, which, obviously, are weapons of math destruction, tools of the sinister al-Gebra and its leader, Osama bin Ary.

Sadly, one of the main features/bugs of our society today is that it is moved by shallow fearmongering, while substantive analysis such as you provide to us here at TPM is too shaded with nuance and detail, and thus, is ignored at the media buffet by most consumers, in favor of a steady 'garbage diet' of '24.'

Regarding the plot by al Gebra, and bin Ary, if only the world would heed history, and realize that computing is an Arab conspiracy that has been unfolding for over a millennium!

Unfortunately, substantive analysis takes effort both to produce and to consume. It may be that fearmongering takes more practice than it seems; George Patton, according to his immediate staff, often would practice his most roaring speeches, standing before a mirror in his favorite robe and slippers.

I've just put up a major rewrite of my Wikipedia article on "clandestine HUMINT and covert action", and it's frustrating, in a way, that I have length limitations. In researching it, I read some fascinating things ranging from doctoral dissertations to the primary documents setting up the US intelligence and special operations communities. At some level, I'd be delighted to share some of the insights, and also some of the conflicts and questions they raise. As you point out, they don't go with the buffet, but they are tasty in their way.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Regarding your research and writing, don't forget that there is always good old fashioned 'dead tree' media (also a nice failsafe for your output if something like a localized EMP were to occur in your area;)

Also, while i've got you here, I know that you are probably full up on your protean writing output, however, I've always wanted to request your consideration of participating at Sic Semper Tyrannis--it's more mil oriented than TPM, and i've always thought that your level of analysis would be well appreciated there...plus, they have a nice troll filter in place, to help rectify the signal to noise ratio.

There's no reason to believe the NIE when it claims that Iran had a nuclear weapons program in 2003, just like there was no reason to believe the previous NIE which said that Iran had an active and on-going nuclear weapons program in 2005.

If the US has any actual evidence of a nuclear weapons program ever existing in Iran, why not turn it over to the people whose job is to make that determination - the IAEA.

Thus far, the IAEA has said that it has no such evidence. I would tend to belive them more.

Remember, back in 2005, a bipartisan Congressional inquiry said that the state of US intelligence on Iran's nuclear program was "inadequate to make firm judgments" and privately, the state of US intelligence was characterized as "scandalous"

Iran has been proposing turning the Mideast into a nuke free zone since 1974.

Guess who opposes it?

On Jeopardy, the question to the answer could be phrased thusly:

Which is the only rogue nuclear state in the Middle East?

I've been looking for a spot to drop this observation: the NIE finds that Iran uses normal cost-benefit analysis re weapons. I guess the fact the we did not exhibit such an attitude on Iraq, but rather went in on the basis of faith and passion, might skew our view of Iran.

I would prefer to think that we and other nations do act soberly concerning nukes, and I'd say that we, and they, do. It is at the conventional level that we act on beliefs instead of knowledge.

I should look for the post where I worked out the numbers in detail, but I made some calculations about what it would take for a full disarming nuclear strike against Israel. As a simplifying assumption, fallout against Israel's neighbors was not considered.

Now, one has to decide if there is a level of retaliation that would deter Iran. I suppose that if the leadership is willing to martyr the entire country, or at least its key components, this doesn't enter into the calculation, but I'm not sure the sort of religious leadership that rises to power in Iran is that eager to get to Paradise and the 72 Virginians...I mean, virgins.

Estimates of Israel's arsenal put it at 200-400 weapons. I'll take the low end. Assume 10 percent, at any given time, are in overhaul or testing. Assume another 10 percent are committed for tactical use as gravity bombs. Further, assume that each of the three submarines carries 10 Harpoon-derived cruise missiles.

That leaves 130 devices that I assume would be warheads for Jericho MRBM/IRBM delivery systems. I am somewhat puzzled by reports that these missiles are mostly in only lightly hardened storages at the Bet Zacharias base; I'd think putting them in superhardened silos would improve stability.

Let's assume the Israelis agree with me, or, perhaps as a benefit of coming into the NPT as a declared member (yes, many assumptions there), the US helps them build silos.

The rule of thumb in most US-fUSSR counterforce scenarios is that each silo and contol center needs to be "serviced" with at least two warheads. In the US case, these are MIRVs. All plausible US warheads are thermonuclear, with a much improved yield-to-throw weight ratio than early Iranian or even Israeli warheads, which are likely fission, much less likely tritium-boosted fission, and extremely unlikely to be multistage thermonuclear. Apparently, the Trident D5 is sufficiently more accurate than the Minuteman III reentry vehicle that Trident threatens silos with 50 KT warheads, while Minuteman is probably 170 or 340KT.

So, my hypothetical Israeli land-based IRBM fields have 130 silo targets. With US systems, there's a control center for every 10 ICBMs. That's 143 targets, plus national command. While there's probably always at least 1 sub at sea, you might as well target the Haifa sub docks. So, with some number of command targets, maybe Dimona, and key conventional targets, you probably need at least 320 accurate warheads to disarm Israel. Even so, you'll probably eat 10 cruise missiles.

Remember, I was using US estimates against Soviet missile fields, not protected by ABMs. Israel has a two-layered IRBM defense of Arrows and PAC-3, although perhaps not for every target.

Now, would someone remind me again of how many deliverable warheads the Iranians would need before committing national suicide?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Presumably an arms race between Israel and Iran would have Israel in the lead the whole way. both in delivery and defense systems.

You expected over 3800 of your fellow soldiers to be killed and an additional 28,000+ wounded - at least half of whom have been permanently maimed? Just so he can strut around pretending his cojones are big?

Turn in your stripes!

Of course the careerists at the CIA oppose Duhbya, they're part of the reality-based group.

Actually, what gets toted around in wheelbarrows by hispanic immigrants are Lou Dobbs ideas.

Hiding behind the skirt of "France and Russia" isn't going to hide the FACT that the United States of America was DIRECTLy, KNOWINGLY complicit in Saddam's atrocities, which including providing him with political cover, funding, arms, and the necessary items to make and launch chemical weapons.

There's no actual evidence that there ever was a nuclear weapons program in Iran - not now, not in 2003, not ever.

There's no more reason to believe this NIE than there was to believe the previous NIE. Who knows what the next NIE will say.

Finding secret nuclear weapons programs is the job of the IAEA, which has stated repeatedly that it has not found any such evidence. If the US has the evidence, let them present it to the IAEA. That's the bottom line.

The NIE is just some more spin by the Bush administration which wants to explain away the absence of evidence (by claiming that the once-existing weapons program was "halted" as a result of US policies) and yet still scaremonger about IRan's alleged "intent" or "capacity" to make nukes.

The real disinformation is not going to come from these primary sources. It is when the secondary sources start being cited in zines like WND and Newsmax, that the real NeoCon Circlejerk begins in earnest. I culled these citations from Laura Rozen's "War and Piece".

The Primaries:

Not many will be fooled by references to Commentary, or from Micahel Ledeen. A few more would be fooled by Kagan and May references, but not enough to make the circlejerk stick. It is the secondary source citations that need be watched for:

Actually I expected the President to stay committed to the war on terror in Afghanistan, Iraq and the rest of the world. I expected him to push for making permanent the tax cuts that started the economy rolling again after the down turn at the end of the Clinton administration that was exacerbated by 9/11. I expected the President to stay committed to find terrorists here as well. I also expected all of the name calling and outrageous claims like "treason against the Constitution" from the nuttiest of y'all. Thanks for not disappointing. Oh, and you can have my stripe when you think you can come take them.

When may expect the War on Meeting Engagements? The War on Bounding Overwatch? The War on Armed Reconnaissance? The War on Fighter Sweeps? The War on SEAD? Not to forget our squid friends, the War against Target Motion Analysis? For the Marines, the War against Hitting Things With Big Rocks. :-)

One cannot declare war on a tactic. One can deal with the causes of all offensive activity against the US, many of which are from rabid ideologues both foreign and domestic. Others come from nationalists. Others are from religious factors.

Now, if one wants to talk about disarming and decapitating non-national combatants, that makes a certain amount of sense, and that was a justification for going into Afghanistan -- but not into Iraq. JTF-Horn of Africa, as it becomes Africa Command, seems to be doing a lot of the things needed to prevent the formation of hostile groups.

There are very vulnerable parts of critical national infrastructure that present a much likelier threat than rogue ICBMs. When money is limited, there has to be prioritization, and with more justification then fearmongering. I will give the Administration credit for doing some reasonable things to reduce hazard in the chemical industry, although perhaps the fact that something is being done efficiently hasn't reached the highest levels. The national electrical grid, however, remains quite vulnerable, especially as a result of unforeseen consequences of deregulation.

I used to be a technical advisor to the National Communications System, and watched with dismay as it was emasculated in the transfer from DoD to Homeland Security, and how it didn't have the resources to carry out its mission during Katrina and Rita. The FCC helped out, but in a way outside its mission. Homeland Security has cut back on the resources allocated to FEMA, the National Incident Management System, and the National Response Plan. There appears to be plenty of resources, however, for security theater that can be trumpeted as Doing Something, but without realistic threat assessment or oversight.

I wouldn't say something as vague as "treason against the Constitution", since that isn't really an offense. The Constitutional definition of treason probably does not apply against Bush and Cheney, but there are specific violations of statutes, against which the Administration offers the doctrine of unitary authority, never fully accepted by the Supreme Court. ex parte Quirin was within the scope of international law, especially against personnel, sent on a combat mission, out of uniform, by a nation with which a declared state of war existed. ex parte Milligan became moot and was never fully tried.

Ironically, the Administration chooses not to make certain actions legal, when the option was available. Under the pen register provisions of the Communications Act of 1934, a very fair argument could be made that the Attorney General has the authority to certify collection of call records is legal, without going to the FISA Court. For whatever reason, the President preferred, instead, to generalize his claim to unitary authority.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

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