Olmert and Abbas Go For It
Ehud Olmert can no longer be dismissed as “His Accidency,” a small-time politician who achieved the top job only because his larger-than-life predecessor was struck down. At Annapolis, Olmert looked every inch the prime minister of his country, successor to David Ben-Gurion and Yitzhak Rabin.
I think Olmert’s transformation began when he decided that his goal as prime minister was not merely to stay in office (in itself no easy task) but to actually try to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Like Rabin, he seems less interested in playing “gotcha” with the Palestinians than in reaching an accommodation with them.
Who can say how long this will last?
Already, some Israelis are saying that Israel need not fulfill its obligations under phase 1 of the Roadmap until the Palestinians have fulfilled theirs. If Israel sticks to that interpretation, the process will be stillborn. In fact, the genius of the Roadmap is that it requires Israel and the Palestinians to act simultaneously. It does not permit either side to duck its commitments by saying the other guy has to go first. The timing of the Roadmap is parallel, not sequential, and that is the only way it can succeed. Olmert surely knows that.
My guess is that Olmert is not going to evade his obligations, and not because the Bush administration won’t let him. In fact, President Bush is unlikely to make Olmert do anything Olmert doesn’t want to do, despite Rice’s determination to achieve an agreement within a year. (White House neo-cons, despite the Iraq debacle, still have enough juice to prevent Rice from playing the honest broker role she aspires to. On the Palestinian issue and the occupation, they are more Catholic than the Pope.)
The pressure on Olmert will have to come from within Olmert himself. It will.
On Wednesday, Olmert told Yedioth Achronoth journalists Nahum Barnea and Shimon Shiffer that the “status quo is a disaster.” Even “back in the interview I gave Yedioth Achronoth in December 2003, I said, if we don’t do something, we will lose the possibility of the existence of two states. We will be an apartheid state. Jewish organizations in America will be the first to come out against us because they will say they cannot support a state that does not support democracy and equal voting rights for all its residents.”
Who is going to apologize to Jimmy Carter for attacks against him for invoking apartheid, now that Olmert has also done so. And he does so in precisely the same context, not that Israel is an apartheid regime but that permanent occupation would create one.
More to the point is that neither the American people nor any imaginable American President would generously aid an Israel that keeps millions of people disenfranchised and under permanent occupation.
From Israel’s point of view it is very good news that the Palestinian people are demanding only the right to statehood in 22 percent of historic Palestine rather than simply demanding “one man, one vote.” Imagine if the Palestinians petitioned for Israeli citizenship rather than their own separate state. All that talk about Israel being recognized “as a Jewish state” would be moot as Israel became binational or, as Olmert suggests, another apartheid regime.
Olmert is determined not to allow that to happen. He is a right-wing pragmatist, not a left-wing idealist. He wants Israel to get rid of the territories because retention of them will undo the Jewish state’s Jewish identity. In their hearts plenty of leftists could live with a democratic binational Israel so long as it is secure. Not Olmert. He is an old Herut man, a Jabotinskyite, and his Israel has to be Jewish.
The fear he expresses in the interview is precisely what will impel him toward peace. To his credit, Olmert also seems to have developed a genuine empathy with Mahmoud Abbas and an understanding of Palestinian suffering. He is now a man on a mission. Like Rabin, and unlike Barak, he approaches the Palestinian leadership not as an emperor relates to the natives but with respect.
Nevertheless, the Annapolis process is not much more than the Roadmap plus. The plus is the all-important monitoring mechanism, by which Americans, Israelis, and Palestinians decide together if the two sides are living up to their commitments. In its original incarnation there was no such mechanism, leaving the two sides to point fingers at each other while the death toll mounted.
Will the enforcement mechanism (led by General James Jones) actually work? It should because it did once before.
Back in 1996-1997, the Oslo process was collapsing due, in large part, to the wave of terror launched by Hamas to undermine both the peace process and Yasir Arafat. The wave of terror had one singular success. It caused the surprise defeat of Shimon Peres, who had succeeded the assassinated Yitzhak Rabin. Hamas and its allies wanted Netanyahu to win because they hoped he would abandon Oslo; and a slight majority of Israeli voters chose Netanyahu because they thought he could end the terrorism.
But Netanyahu understood that he couldn’t do it alone or even in cooperation with the Palestinians. Netanyahu needed the United States to help.
Here is what the the CIA’s main official on the ground told me about U.S. involvement and how it evolved in 1997 and after.
“The Israelis turned to us and requested that we act as a go-between. . . . This was basically an admission that they could not do their job. . . . For a number of months, we became the go-between.
“We’d hear ‘Go tell those people such and such.’ Literally, they were having no conversations. Both sides were talking to us but they were not talking to each other.”
But Dennis Ross and other key policymakers wanted the Israelis and Palestinians to start dealing directly with each other. Neither side was comfortable with that because there was simply no trust.
“Somebody suggested that the Israelis and Palestinians talk to each other, but in the presence of the Americans. So we started these trilateral meetings in which I chaired meetings with the Shin Bet and the IDF, and all the Palestinians. These meetings were pretty rocky. They shouted at each other but they resumed the dialogue. They went off in corners and whispered to each other.”
Within a few months, the American presence was superfluous. Although the CIA was in the room, the two sides worked seamlessly together to produce a security plan that almost completely eradicated terrorism.
During the next three years—from the fall of 1997 until the autumn of 2000, after the failure of the Camp David summit—not a single Israeli civilian was killed in a suicide bombing (in contrast to the hundreds killed previously).
CIA-brokered security cooperation was so successful that, following action by Yasir Arafat to thwart a massive attack on Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Netanyahu personally called the Palestinian leader to thank him and commend the Palestinian forces for their repeated vigorous actions against Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
There is no reason to think that it can’t happen again. Contrary to all the propaganda, CIA-monitored Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation gave Israel the three safest years in its history. Ask any Israeli, or anyone who visited Israel, what 1999 felt like.
And then look at what the last seven years have been. If you don’t understand that ending the occupation and achieving peace with the Palestinians is better, you are no friend of Israel. No way.










Again, the only chance that real peace will be achieved is if the Israelis and Americans resort to Extreme Generosity. Can a right-winger like Olmert take the process in that direction?
November 30, 2007 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ: The Roadmap is backward. While a final deal will require the transformation of Hamas, the PFLP, and Islamic Jihad, among others, into pure political parties with no military arm, that can only happen when the Palestinians have something to protect, i.e, an agreement. If you look at Michael Collins's career, it is instructive. After the Free State Treaty was signed, Michael did put down an IRA rebellion and used force against his own people. He didn't do to help England. He did it to protect the Irish Free State. If the Palestinians end all resistence to the Occupation up front, then any agreement they enter into actually SUPPORTS the occupation by transferring security obligation to the Palestinians and lessoning the burden to Israel of its settlements in Palestine. That's why final status, borders, Jerusalem, refugees, etc., have to be negotated first.
November 30, 2007 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
November 30, 2007 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've replied to your proposal but you never responded.
November 30, 2007 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
See, we are in total agreement. It's exactly what I advocated here for a long time.
1. Final status.
2. Removing settlers.
3. Building Palestinian state.
4. Ending military control.
November 30, 2007 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, we do agree on the framework.
November 30, 2007 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
mj your optimism is almost infectious. I hope you are right but I remain cynical. It was very interesting that he almost used the word 'apartheid' to describe what Israel would become if the two state solution failed.
November 30, 2007 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not all settlers will be resettled, just those that are not close to old Israel.
There will be some issues that will linger no matter what is done. That's fine as long as these issues are not major issues. Gaza may be a huge obstacle since it is controlled by Hamas and is not part of the game.
Those that see a solution in terms of perfect or none will have to grow up and understand that an independent Palestinian state with huge money influx from the West and may be the East might be as far as it goes initially. And that is not a small fit; it removes Israelis from the newly established state, it helps the suffering Palestinians recover and start a normal life.
Let's keep our fingers crossed, enemies of even that are many and everywhere.
November 30, 2007 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
November 30, 2007 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was surprised by Olmert's acknowledgment of Palestinian suffering in his Annapolis speech - I thought it was an historic moment - and now this. I share some of syvanen's cynicism - hopes have been raised only to be dashed so many times now, and there are so many potential pitfalls - but I sincerely hope your optimism is warranted, MJ. And that Olmert can manage to bring the Israeli populace along.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
November 30, 2007 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Davai
November 30, 2007 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. He's such a great man
November 30, 2007 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This analysis has the same flaw that most discussions of the conflict have when they come from the left. That is, they implicitly assume that Israel is the only actor in this play and the Palestinians are just bystanders.
The title of this post is "Olmert and Abbas Go for It" Yet the entire piece is about Olmert. The whole analysis is about the effect of Olmert's decisions and whether Olmert has transformed and why Olmert is making this decision.
Nowhere is there anything about Abbas. And in fact there is never anything about Abbas or the Palestinians or the Arab states in MJ's posts. Leftists like him keep talking about "achieving peace with the Palestinians" but never say how negotiations and concessions will bring about the change of mindset in the Arab world that is the only guarantor of true peace. They don't talk about those things because they can't.
They think that Israel needs to press on with negotiations and concessions regardless of whether it leads to peace or not. Some think that the occupation is bad for Israel, period. Others think that the occupation is just evil. If removing the occupation results in peace, then so much the better, but removing the occupation is a good idea regardless of whether peace ensues or not.
Their problem is that they know that this position has virtually no appeal to most supporters of Israel. Most supporters of Israel will support concessions if they lead to peace but will not support them if they don't. So the left has to peddle the fantasy that negotiations are about "achieving peace" to maintain and build public support. But it's nothing but pure cynicism in the end.
Of course there are also many who are just naive and think the grand ceremony on the White House lawn with handshakes and smiles will be the end of the confict.
I can't decide whether MJ is naive or cynical. I guess in the end I'd lean towards cynical.
November 30, 2007 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Olmert also seems to have developed a genuine empathy with Mahmoud Abbas and an understanding of Palestinian suffering."
"An understanding of Palestinian suffering"? In what sense does Olmert understand Palestinian suffering? Does he think it works?
This is a huge pile of nonsense in view of the fact that the Israeli seige on Gazan civilians is an ongoing effort by various branches of Israel's government.
Good job, idiots. Your most formidable foe is more so and eliminating Hamas influence would allow the spread of the salifist ideology in the IDF-fertilized muck of Gaza. Fools.
Watching Gaza tends to make one have one's doubts about the values claimed by democratic regimes who are mum on this subject.
November 30, 2007 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ: I just finished watching the Moyers program on Christians United for Israel. Scary stuff. I hope you're right and they won't be able to influence the process negatively, but that letter to their conference from Bush is a cause for concern.
Thanks to Moyers for bringing the information to PBS and to you and Ron Sidel for appearing. I was so happy to hear Sidel say that most U.S. Christian Evangelicals aren't at all as extreme as CUFI, and about the letter he and many of the more moderate Evangelical leaders wrote in support of the two-state solution.
A mea culpa: I realize I haven't been careful enough in talking about Evangelicals and their relationship to Israel, and when I speak of their influence in the future, I'm going to try to make certain I don't paint all Evangelicals with the Hagee brush.
It was a great discussion, MJ - your passion for Israel is palpable.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
November 30, 2007 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given Olmert's political weakness in Israel, I doubt if he can bring anyone along.
December 1, 2007 5:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the creation of a Palestinian state may be becoming more important to the Israelis than to the Palestinians. As time goes by, the Palestinians have less and less incentive to agree to a minimal Palestinian state because the facts on the ground (the large Arab population combined with the dispersed Jewish settlements that make it difficult for Israel to disentangle itself from the Palestinian areas) may give the Palestinians rights to the whole state. Sharon realized this transition was taking place and believed the time was optimal to offer the Palestinians a minimal state. But Sharon may have been too late. The time for this solution may well be past. The one-state solution that Olmert so fears may be inevitable.
But really, what would be so bad about a state for both Arabs and Jews? Isn't that basically the American solution? A state for everyone, regardless of race, ethnicity, or religion. Isn't this what we as Americans stand for?
December 1, 2007 5:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wordie,
I saw the program too. Watching Hagee make that speech about pre emptive strikes against Iran I thought to myself;
"This man is dangerous."
Some tume back the History Channel showed real film of Goebbles addressing an auditorium of Germans, and they stood and applauded as if in a mania, this came back to me as I watched Hagee and his audience.
December 1, 2007 6:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
You did really well last night on Moyer's journal, R.J., very impressive.
December 1, 2007 6:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's remarkable isn't it, the similarity? And what Hagee's followers are applauding is the infliction of massive, unthinkable suffering on their fellow human beings.
December 1, 2007 6:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
We Americans stand for that, and I'd prefer US foreign policy to reward such approaches. Some societies have other systems that work either better or worse. For example, Singapore is fairly authoritarian, but it seems to be a comfortable sort for the people under it.
Israel is quite another matter. There has been, for a long time, a running argument here about "Jewish identity". I regard it as religious and an individual choice. Others, such as Zionista, have argued thoughtfully for a much broader definition, with which I disagree heartily but is internally consistent given certain assumptions.
For those who want to see a state with Jewish identity, which they often equate to Irish or German identity, a one-state model is rather frightening, because Arab birth rates are such that they will eventually predominate. Germany has its problems with immigration, but they are neither as rigorous as defining German identity or as threatened by a growing internal population. Germany has a limited right of return, which I believe is like Ireland's: you must be able to document at least one grandparent who was born in a territory that was German (Irish) at the time.
While I need to check the specific rules of Israel, my sense is that they are much more liberal for self-identified Jewish immigrants, and much more restrictive for people who identify as non-Jewish.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 7:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
lally: When I read your post last night I thought you were being too pessimistic, but the morning news is that yesterday, the U.S. withdrew from consideration at the U.N. the Mideast Peace Resolution, apparently at Israel's urging.
And, predictably, Hamas responded:
Stupid, stupid, stupid. This action has probably undone much of the goodwill that was projected at Annapolis, and the extremists can use it to sow doubts. It didn't even take the administration a week to screw up.
But there are also reports that the Israeli High Court has delayed the plans to stop electricity to Gaza, so at least that's a somewhat positive step.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
December 1, 2007 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wordie:
"Stupid, stupid, stupid. This action has probably undone much of the goodwill that was projected at Annapolis, and the extremists can use it to sow doubts. It didn't even take the administration a week to screw up."
I agree that the United States, in a diplomatic sense, acted with absolute and extraordinary imprudence by first offering and then withdrawing the Security Council Resolution. Clearly, as reflected in the piece you cite to concerning the reaction of Hamas, such a clumsy diplomatic maneuver gives fodder to those who claim that Annapolis is a farce.
It appears, however, from the first article you cite that both the Israelis and the Palestinians opposed the introduction of the Security Council resolution (although there is no direct Palestinian confirmation), and I have to tell you that from a negotiating perspective I believe that the introduction was, at best, extremely ill-timed, especially since it was done without first consulting with the two principal parties to the negotiations. Annapolis, if it was anything, gives a broad, albeit not entirely complete international imprimatur for negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians to proceed. Now, if it has any chance of working, you have to let the Israelis and Palestinians have a go at it.
The toothpaste is out of the tube and the bargaing table is set. . .again. There will be time later and it will be necessary for others, including in my view the voices now reflected in political Hamas, to chime in on what will be. As in this case, the continued missteps of the Bush Administration in the diplomatic realm has and will continue to make things that much more difficult. But it is what it is. The real measure of success or failure will emerge from the proverbial smoke-filled room.
Bruce
December 1, 2007 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 1, 2007 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
THANKS. I appreciate it.
December 1, 2007 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Bev. That Hagee is somethin else!!!
December 1, 2007 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, brad, everyone who knows me is taken by how cynical I am.
you aren't though. you are the opposite. utterly credulous. like a 1930's stalinist who gets the line from party hq and swallows it whole. i admire that.
December 1, 2007 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, what would be so bad about a state for both Czechs and Slovakian, Russian and Ukrainians, Serbs and Croatians, Pakistan and India, a bridge between New York and London? The answer is nothing wrong. So, what's your point?
December 1, 2007 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad TPM Cafe software doesn't offer a rating number for missing the point.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
December 1, 2007 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
I understand where MJ is coming from.
You can look at Palestinins as orphan child who had a very hard childhood. This child learned how to use tantrums (terrorism) to get an attention. You can’t expect this child to improve on his own, so there is no point ask him to do something. He is not really a responsible party. It only makes sense to talk to responsible adults how have custody of this child. MJ thinks that if this child get all the freedom, magically he’ll grow up to be a responsible adult. Obviously, MJ is wrong. On another hand, something has to change, because a status quo is hard for a child it’s hard for a guardian. It would be nice to find another guardian but nobody wants to take such responsibility.
Disclaimer, Any analogy including this is not exact.
December 1, 2007 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
So what's you point?
What should Israel do with terrorists/freedom fighters while negitiating with Abbas? Let them fight Israel and don't respond and don't try to prevent?
December 1, 2007 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The first point is that it isn't possible to give a rational answer to an emotionally loaded, detail-free comment such as asking if they should kill Israeli children. Are you speaking of a specific incident? If so, who appeared to be firing it? What were the casualties?
Second, yes, sometimes you do accept casualties without massive retaliation. If you are ever in Maryland, go to the National Cryptologic Museum, in a public area just outside NSA Headquarters. There is a memorial area with three airplanes, all shot down by Communist nations while collecting electronic and communications intelligence. Those three are representative of quite a few others.
Especially among military personnel, yes, you accept some casualties to avoid a larger war. Tell me, if it is rational to have a major military intervention because one side has captured a few soldiers, what should the US response have been to the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty?
The US Sixth Fleet would take casualties in doing it, but I would be confident that had they been ordered to retaliate, the relevant Israeli naval bases would be smoking ruins. IIRC, at least some of the attackers came from Haifa. Precision guided munitions were very rare at the time, and the Sixth Fleet may not have had any. An errant bomb, or an Israeli antiaircraft missile, could well have landed in a civilian area.
The US made some very bad tactical errors in sending an unescorted and essentially unarmed intelligence ship into a war zone. Three years or so earlier, electronic information gathering against North Vietnam was done by pairs of detroyers, with air support on immediate call. Their electronic capture gear was less extensive than on the Liberty, but if the US had needed that capability in the Gulf of Tonkin, that ship would have had a strong escort.
Nevertheless, Israel attacked a US Navy vessel, and the US did not retaliate. North Korea attacked and captured the USS Pueblo, and the US did not retaliate. What if the US followed Israeli doctrine in both cases?
What, Davai, would have happened next if the US destroyed the Haifa naval base as retaliation for the Liberty incident? That retaliation would have been more focused than the attacks by Israel in response to a much less serious incident. 34 Americans died and 173 were injured in that attack. Is that more of a justification to blast the base from which the attackers were known to have come, as opposed to the capture of fewer than 5 soldiers?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ I just watched the Moyers show online and I was very impressed by you and Mr. Sider. I was raised as a southern baptist so I guess technically I'm an evangelical but I'm not the nutjob wishing for end times type of evangelical. This nutjob Hagee is a scary person. Sadly my local NBC affiliate airs his "sermons" every Sunday,and I keep the tv on mute until it's over as I can't stand the guy or his rhetoric. I agree with you and several other posters that the only way Israel will see peace in the mideast is the two state solution. In the book Imperial Hubris the author stated that most of our problems in the mideast are due to the United States "Israel right or wrong" policy. I hope that we continue to see progress between Israel and Palestine toward peace.
December 1, 2007 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you read the comments by Abbas that I posted in the news article (apparently made before the withdrawal), it sure sounds as if as late as Friday, he had no objections, and was seeing the UN resolution as confirmation of the Bush administration's seriousness.
I see what you're saying about the process, but perception is everything and this sends, at minimum, a mixed message to the Arab world about the seriousness of the negotiations, thus potentially undermining needed support. Once the resolution was on the table, it was a very bad move to withdraw it.
The claim that the Palestinians opposed it too appears to be no more than a CYA move; even the Haaretz article on the topic says that the U.S. withdrew it due to Israeli objections. Maybe, as lally suspects, the Israelis aren't as serious about peace as they claim to be.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
December 1, 2007 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. If US had thought that Israel would continue to attack US ships, I'm sure US wouldn't wait for another attack.
2. Your another question is what would be US reaction if Mexico allowed Venezuela and Iran to create a Hezbollah style group in border areas with US and that group constantly harasses US border guards and one day capture five border guards and killed another five.
It’s hard to image, but there would be hell to pay.
3. What would be reaction of US to every day indiscriminate firing rockets on San Diego from Mexico? I don't know for sure, but again there would be hell to pay.
December 1, 2007 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry for not responding; I'm dealing with severe time constraints...
If it does not work, then Israel would find itself surrounded by enemies---just as it is today---but it will have gained a great deal more sympathy from the rest of the world. I have very little sympathy for the Israel of today, but if an extraordinarly generous offer like the one I've proposed were rejected by a significant number of Palestinian young men (like >10%), then I would be wondering if we weren't actually dealing with psychosis. But there really shouldn't be much doubt about the likelihood of success if the whole thing is approached in the right way.
It will be important to encourage the Palestinian people to view the extreme generosity settlement as a supreme victory for the Palestinian People, one that they can celebrate for days in the street. The key is to get the pride thing going for the young males. Let Hamas take ownership of the deal, and let them parade around as if their steadfastness made the wonderful outcome possible. This is where the Israelis need to be clever. You want that to happen because it magnifies the chances of success dramatically. Let them take ownership of it.
Israel wins anyway, because it finally gets the peace it wanted and it gets to keep its historical land and it finally has the whole world admiring the Israeli people for their incredible display of good will (and not just Amercan politicians and Christian Armageddonists).
If you just hand tons of cash over to the Palestinians, the result would not be very favorable. Rampant inflation would simply waste away their good fortune. Hand them a nice chunk of cash, perhaps available over a period of time, but give them real things whenever possible. Valuable infrastructure, goods, and services should be made available at reasonable prices. The Israeli economy would boom like never before.
The Israelis should try to flood the New Palestine with helpers and advisors and enablers. They should be visable in a helpful role. You see, the Palestinians won't be hating the Israelis anymore. They will not feel humiliated and ashamed. And behind their smiles, they'll also be feeling some sincere gratitude toward the Israelis for making a joyful peace possible. They may not actually want to say it at first, but it will be there. You guys don't know what you're missing.
Guess that's all I have time for now...
December 1, 2007 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Maybe, as lally suspects, the Israelis aren't as serious about peace as they claim to be."
Maybe you and lally are right that the Israelis might not be serious about negotiations. I'm not here to argue the contrary, or to question the bona fides of the Palestinians. My principal point was plainly and remains about the negotiations process. I guess I believed that was a critical point to make in this discussion frankly. But if you're right that this could be all about the Israelis having no interest in good faith negotiations then of course the process would not matter and what I thought was critical becomes irrelevant.
December 1, 2007 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
3. What would be reaction of US to every day indiscriminate firing rockets on San Diego from Mexico? I don't know for sure, but again there would be hell to pay.
Of course there's no reason for the Mexicans to fire rockets at us because we aren't occupying their country, building American settlements on their land, controlling their borders, assassinating their leaders, or withholding their tax money.
December 1, 2007 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. That wasn't my question, was it? Are you saying Israel never, ever retaliates unless it is convinced another attack will come from the same source?
I will ask it again: if Israel took a significant number of dead and wounded and had a ship almost sunk, by Syrian vessels operating out of Latakia, are you saying that Israel would hit that base only if it thought a second attack would come from there?
2. I think this is a hypothetical question, but it is so twisted that I'm not sure what you are asking.
3. Rockets from San Diego? First, tell me specifically what kind of rockets, and where they are landing. I can tell you quite specifically about the reaction to rocket fire in Iraq, which is one hell of a lot more precise and controlled than what Israel is doing.
Of course, if Israel hadn't stopped joint development of the Nautilus (former MTHEL) laser defense against rockets, and its own development based on the Swiss Oerlikon 35mm gun system, both countries might have better active defenses.
Passive defenses have their role as well. Most light artillery rockets fired as singles tend to be low trajectory. High chain-link fence, or a modern variation on WWII style barrage balloons, might be a fairly effective passive defense.
I could very well see the US demanding to put launch sensors in Mexico, perhaps in a joint center, and take counteraction if the Mexicans did not. The equivalent is something I have repeatedly suggested for Israel: get the settlers out of the settlements NOW, and put military observation posts, or at least unmanned launch sensors, in their place.
I would have to study the geography and patterns of rocket fire to make specific recommendations, but if there were a problem with rockets put on ramps and fired by timers, I'd consider a variety of sensors to try to spot them before launch, and engage them with fairly precise weapons, such as guns or missiles on a UCAV after spotting by a electro-optical surveillance UAV. I certainly wouldn't rule out, again if I had a good idea of where the groups firing were headquartered or have weapons dumps, using direct action by special operations forces. A couple of Raufoss rounds from a Barrett .50 rifle will do interesting things to a rocket in a truck.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
You didn'r really answer my questions:
First of all, it might sounds silly for you but there is a difference between being nine mile wide country and being 100 miles wide country.
Second, Israel is not going to gain sympathy from Iran, and I'm not sure how your sympathy will help Israel if Israel would find itself surrounded by enemies. that can fire all over the country from the short distance.
December 1, 2007 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
You must be kidding. What's San Diego if not American settlement on their land.
In any case, Israel doesn't build settlements on Lebanise land.
December 1, 2007 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
In any case, Israel doesn't build settlements on Lebanise land.
Don't overlook the refugee camps in Lebanon for the Palestinian Arabs Israel won't let return. In their own way, these too are Israeli settlements.
December 1, 2007 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 1, 2007 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's realy own way. Therefore the war will continue until 10 millions Arabs get permission to return to Israel.
I got your point. Israel will have to do whatever it have to do to protect itself.
December 1, 2007 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope nobody has any illusions that even a single Palestinian will be allowed to "return".
Indeed, what are they thinking--in Israel, this 'right' is for 'Jews only.'
December 1, 2007 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
With modern weapons, or even older ones, it may very well be that a nine-mile-wide strip cannot be defended. Dien Bien Phu was, IIRC, 3-5 miles wide at the narrowest, and the Viet Minh used light artillery brought in mostly by physical laborers.
You could, of course, create a 30 mile or so boundary zone, clear all life from it, mine it, and cover it with artillery. Within that zone, you could put radars and such to give you warning another 30 or so miles out.
Doing so would certainly take you out of unguided rocket, but not missile, range. That is a problem, isn't it? It may be that a declared Zionist state cannot exist in that area, or you can hold off until the Rapturists are right about Armageddon.
This is not a theoretical position, but one that might be all too real.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The point davai is that multiethnic states are the model and have been for most of the post-war era. One could even argue that for civilized people at least, they have always been the model. And you don't know much about the breakup of Czechoslovakia if you're using that to defend your point.
Perhaps it would be better if all the immigrants from Europe's former colonial territories went home. I don't think so. Perhaps we should bring back segregation and Marcus Garvey. And, davai, what's the Muslim population Of India?
I will not defend in the modern era the racial definition of a state, in theory or in practice. I will not defend it for the US and I will not defend it for Germany and I will not defend it for Israel, though Israel was founded on that logic. You will do so, and so will Josh Marshall, MJ Rosenberg and Ehud Olmert. Your claims that Palestinians and Egyptians and Syrians are all Arabs is based on the same racial logic; cultural difference mean noting. Try using that logic to resolve border disputes in South America.
For the rest of you read the interview and know what you're defending if you defend the morality of Olmert and his policies.
December 1, 2007 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Kathy.
It was very valuable to me to hear from Dr. Sider that the Hagee types are a minority of evangelicals.
Similarly, the Jewish zealots are a minority of our community.
Praise God for that!
MJ
December 1, 2007 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, actually no Davai. Ten million Arabs don't have to be allowed to return to Israel. For there to be a reasonable chance of peace, however, there may need to be an accomodation more generous to the Palestinians than what the Israelis are now offering and less generous than what the Palestinians are demanding. That's all. No reason to run to one extreme or the other. But starting the negotiations with the condition that the return of even a single Arab will not be allowed is really the same as ending the negotiations.
December 1, 2007 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stay that rigid, and you have a handbook of how to protect yourself. It's called "History of Masada".
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ, I understand you're up for an Emmy for that performance. :-)
December 1, 2007 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kathy,
The Hagee gang support the State of Israel because without it there can be no Rapture.
The Hagee loonies believe there must be a steady State of Isreal before they can be transported up to Heaven when End of Days arrives.
The item not publicized much about these good Christian folk is that on the Day of the Rapture if Jews haven't converted to Christianity and accepted Jesus Christ as their Lord and Savior then they will be condemned to eternal damnation, burning in hell for eternity.
The bottom line is, Hagee's support of Israel isn't altruistic, its self serving.
December 1, 2007 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
So how many Arabs should be allowed to move to Israel?
December 1, 2007 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know . . . that seems to be a topic for negotiation. I assume fewer the more alternative compensation is provided for them.
December 1, 2007 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know there are an awful lot of Jews who live in Israel, but what exactly is it, exactly, that makes Israel "Jewish"?
Or does anything Israel might do become "Jewish" by default?
Israel does whatever it does due to the exigencies of the position they have put themselves in, and the things they wish to accomplish.
If what Israel does is "Jewish", we Jews are in a lot of trouble.
So Judaism is a religion of colonial projects, opression, dispossesion and illegal occupation?
It is an afront to Jews everywhere, I hope, and an insult to every Jew who has suffered for their religion.
December 1, 2007 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The answer will be 0. Get over this. Accept the partition of British mandate into Jewish and Arab state and move on.
December 1, 2007 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's better for Israel if somebody support Israel for self serving reasons, than hate Israel for self serving reasons.
December 1, 2007 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
As you can see from my first comment in this post, I don't propose for Israel to be rigid.
December 1, 2007 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you don't think that "it would be better if all the immigrants from Europe's former colonial territories went home", what do you propose?
Also, don't forget about Jewish refugies from Arab countries.
December 1, 2007 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he gets the line from party hq, he is asking questions that you have no answers.
December 1, 2007 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard, as you probably understand every mile makes a diffrence. Demilitarized Sinai, Golans, West Bank under Israeli military control makes defending Israel possible.
December 1, 2007 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Depending on the altitude, it may be possible to deploy aerostats with nets on the border. That's not an overnight development, but it could be worked out.
Mexican forces, perhaps with some technical assistance, should be able to locate the firers. It would also depend on whether the rockets were fired manually or on timers. If the former, a jointly controlled UCAV that could engage with .50 caliber machine guns or Hellfire missiles. If the latter, a temporary approach might be to see if the M1097 Humvee Avenger will engage a rocket that small, and, if so, to deploy a line of them.
Ground patrols, either Mexican or joint, would probably get shoot-to-kill orders on sighting rocket teams, using a mixture of sniper rifles, with Barrett .50 against rockets and vehicles, and something lighter against personnel.
Single Qassams are just not enough of a threat to counter with artillery. I think people would be more worried about them starting brushfires than blowing anything up. There are probably more people killed by gang warfare in San Diego than a few Qassams would manage; they are rather light weapons.
Given it took me about 15 minutes to come up with a basic approach, which could be operational in a few weeks, is it any clearer why I don't think the IDF is serious about defense? RLS/UTAMS is, incidentally, operational for base defense in Afghanistan, where they are apt to return fire with medium mortars or artillery. The population is denser in Iraq, so they tend to go with infantry and helicopters to avoid collateral damage. The GRADs are actually preferable, as they are bigger and easier to hit than a Qassam. I need to get a better map of where the rocket attacks are hitting a 9 mile wide strip of Israel, or you are referring to two different places. A 9 mile wide strip is indefensible. If this is the situation with respect to Gaza, either Israel has to pull back or move in, with all the consequences of either option. Without specific analysis of the terrain, a rough estimate of a defensible buffer zone against Qassams is around 12 miles, and 25 miles against GRADs. -- Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
December 1, 2007 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FYI, Maybe Israel should be afront to Jews everywhere, but it's not the case. Most of the Jews around the world as well many non Jews support of Israel and are proud of Israel.
December 1, 2007 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was one of my better roles!!
December 1, 2007 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've brought this up multiple times and you've evaded the question every time without fail.
Answer the question: How will negotiations ending the occupation lead to peace? What is the evidence that Israeli concessions will lead to a change in the Arab mindset. Please note this is NOT an argument for maintaining the status quo. It is an argument about trying to be realistic about what strategy Israel should take to overturn the status quo.
If you really believe that getting land and signing a treaty will lead the Palestinians to give up their goal of destroying Israel, then say so. If you are not sure what the Palestinians will do, but think Israel needs to end its occupation regardless, then say so.
Just stop saying NOTHING about this crucial issue.
December 1, 2007 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, you are saying the Israeli government is as honest and rational as the Bush Administration. Tell me, what would you say if you wanted to show disapproval of the Israeli government?
Davai, you asked me questions about a specific tactical situation that you defined. I even asked you some specific questions about the rockets, and you gave answers. That they were fairly silly answers became apparent.
So, you tried to change the tactical picture, but I'm not playing that game. You apparently don't like the answers you got, which were very specific. OTOH, I did give a number of answers that did not require invading Mexico/Gaza, which specifically involved active countermeasures to the rockets themselves. Israel was in joint development, with the US, of a system even more effective than what I described, but it stopped that work, as well as the work on Skyguard.
Now, given that I could cite US equipment, some of which Israel has, that could give countermeasures, why do you think I am not very impressed with the performance of the IDF to date? While I'd be extremely hesitant to give more long-range offensive weapons to the little boys of the IDF, who haven't demonstrated they can use them responsibly, I doubt the US would object to providing RLS or Avenger to Israel. Israel already has either AN/TPQ-36, -37, or both. If Israel doesn't have the AN/MPQ-64, or the FAAD C3I system to link radars to Avengers, I don't see that as a problem.
Consider engaging brain before putting typing fingers into gear, or perhaps not trying to tell me the IDF is on top of things. -- Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 1, 2007 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
December 1, 2007 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't speak for MJ, but I have been saying that the two-state solution as presently conceived (which includes ending the occupation, giving the Palestinians some fraction of the West Bank and Gaza, etc., etc.) will not create peace because it will not be enough to satisfy the Palestinians and will therefore not end their resistance and therefore not provide security to Israel. The question then becomes: "What alternative will work?" Or maybe even more important prior to that question, "Does anyone have the will to find an alternative?"
I suspect that the new peace process will come down to a take-it-or-leave it proposition from Israel to the Palestinians. And, if it comes to that, I expect Abbas to do exactly what Arafat did last time around. Walk out.
No one knows what the alternative solution that would work is--or even if one exists. That will require substantial work. And even if the two sides can find a solution that seems as if it has potential to work, there will never be a guarantee in advance. The future is too hard to predict. So an end to the stalemate will require great willingness to find a solution, great work to create one, and great courage to proceed despite immeasurable risks.
Maybe it will happen.
In the meantime, a lot of meaningless drivel will be written over and over again (and I don't exclude this).
December 1, 2007 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Now, India is a democratic country with Muslim minority"
... and you're a supporter of the BJP.
"If you don't think that "it would be better if all the immigrants from Europe's former colonial territories went home", what do you propose?"
I propose that you're an asshole.
December 1, 2007 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Want to try some specifics, Davai? I think I know what you have in mind, and it may not fly.
However, "we" do not know the answer. You have yet to pose a coherent question, although you can certainly wallow in the emotive loaded question.
I suspect you are misremembering when four, not five, American contractors were killed, and their bodies exhibited, in March 2004. There was urban fighting after that, for about a month, which ended with an agreement that Iraqi forces would keep order in Fallujah.
I'm not defending the legitimacy of either the Iraqi government or the US presence, but what most people refer to as the major fighting in Fallujah was in November 2004.
Of course, if one were to listen to a Big Lie propagandist like you, Davai, one might assume that the US, immediately after the bodies were discovered, ordered large-scale bomhing and shelling of the city. If one were to listen to you, no American soldiers were at risk in either April or November, and no Iraqi troops were involved in the Second Battle of Fallujah.
Was that a wise battle? That's a hard question. It did achieve some of its tactical objectives, but there is the fundamental question of what the US was trying to accomplish.
Nevertheless, Davai, there was no cause and effect, and, as is often the case, you are caught lying when you argue something else and look silly. I notice you aren't commenting on my observation that the IDF is dealing foolishly with the rocket problem, that there would be ways to deal with it, but the geography created by Israel may not be defensible.
To what irrelevant topic would you like to try to divert the conversation at this time?
I have yet to tell you about a single American military manual, Davai. Why would I bother, since I can confidently expect you to misunderstand them? If I were in a room with you and you held a firearm, that would be a frightening experience, since I don't know whether I'd be safer if you aimed at me or not. Your level of military knowledge suggests that you may not definitively know the end of the weapon from which the bullet comes.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
It takes a village to make an idiot.
December 1, 2007 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't follow internal Indian policy closely.
Is this the best argument you have, Seth?
How old are you?
December 1, 2007 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brad,
It's not going to happen.
None.
Now, answer my question, what are the reasons for civilians to continue to live in the West Bank ooutside the fence, with exception to Hevron?
Now, let me try to answer your question about Arab mindset in a different way. Arabs will hate Israel for another 1000 years. However, the issue is how important and how easy for Arabs to destroy Israel. The trick is to make for Arabs less important to destroy Israel without making for them easier to destroy Israel. What MJ and other pro Israel lefties advocate might make for Arabs less important to destroy Israel (but I'm not sure) but will make for Arabs much much easier to destroy Israel.
Removing settlers behind the fence but keeping military control would make for Arabs less important to destroy Israel without making for them easier to destroy Israel and this is something that Israel can do unilaterally today.
December 1, 2007 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's still occupation according to international law and doesn't solve anything.
You also keep referring to withdrawing Israeli settlers to "behind the fence" as if that's the border. But it's not - that's one of the things that negotiation is supposed to resolve - and the route of the fence causes additional Palestinian suffering and economic deprivation because it cuts through their villages and separates them from their agricultural lands - all to try to seize as much land as possible for Israel. Your "solution" just perpetuates the 30-year-old problem, and would likely lead to an escalation of violence rather than the reduction you claim. All Palestinians - not just Hamas - would have nothing left to lose under your plan.
Before arguing with me about this, I suggest that you read the b'tselem articles that I posted several threads back, but which you either didn't bother to read, or simply ignored.
“The healthy man does not torture others — generally it is the tortured who turn into torturers.” ~~ C. G. Jung
December 1, 2007 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If you don't think that "it would be better if all the immigrants from Europe's former colonial territories went home", what do you propose?"
They're the new europeans.
idiot.
December 1, 2007 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
December 1, 2007 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I’ve figured out why we are talking past each other.
it’s something that you would consider in a computer game. This is an argument that any American president, not just Bush could not make. So, when you judge Israeli military actions, you don’t try to understand how would real countries act in SIMILAR circumstances, you try to understand how would YOU act if you play a computer game. It seems that you find a better more elegant solution for Israel. Therefore, you get extremely angry that Israel doesn’t use your solution.You are probably a geek and probably play computer games. So, when you suggest
December 1, 2007 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
December 1, 2007 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fence, maybe adjusted a little bit, is going to a border of Israel, even according to a Clinton plan. Yes, the fence did cause some additional hardship for hundreds or thousands Palestinians while preventing loss of hundreds or maybe thousands lives of Israelis and Palestinians. As you probably read, Howard considered justifiable to drop 2 nuclear bombs to prevent future losses of American soldiers and Japanese civilians. It’s totally unclear for me why removing Israelis from the 95% of West Bank would lead to escalation of violence or making things worse in any way shape of form and why would Palestinians not welcome such development.
December 1, 2007 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh golly, oh gee, does that mean you think there's no point in discussions here and you might go away?
You see, Davai, it's rather a running joke how you begin a discussion not with anything that might actually require you to defend a position, but, instead, you draw from the methods of the Organs of State Security and start asking question after question, of the general form "and when did you quit beating your wife." When the questions deal with anything that actually has real parameters and boundary conditions, such as actual weapons and military doctrine, you throw out ill-considered questions.
You appear to find it most annoying when your literal question is answered in detail and it doesn't give you the answer you were setting up, so you go off with a new set of questions. I suppose that if people would patiently answer you, show you the illogic of your questions, you might -- and I consider this not to be certain -- you might actually ask loaded questions which, if answered, would give you the answer you want the very first time! On the other paw, since the answers you want are transparently propagandistic and prejudiced, there isn't a great probability many will play with you.
So, in this case, since you didn't get to set the rules and keep changing them until reality fit your preconceptions, you now huffle off and say you won't play any more. Huffle huffle huffle.
--
Howard
Ernest was an elephant, a great big fellow,
Leonard was a lion with a six foot tail,
George was a goat, and his beard was yellow,
And James was a very small snail.
Leonard had a stall, and a great big strong one,
Earnest had a manger, and its walls were thick,
George found a pen, but I think it was the wrong one,
And James sat down on a brick
Earnest started trumpeting, and cracked his manger,
Leonard started roaring, and shivered his stall,
James gave a huffle of a snail in danger
And nobody heard him at all.
Earnest started trumpeting and raised such a rumpus,
Leonard started roaring and trying to kick,
James went on a journey with the goats new compass
And he reached the end of his brick.
Ernest was an elephant and very well intentioned,
Leonard was a lion with a brave new tail,
George was a goat, as I think I have mentioned,
but James was only a snail.
[A.A. Milne, "The Four Friends"]
December 1, 2007 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tend to doubt Bush plays computer games, unless "My Pet Goat" has been computerized.
I crave the audience's pardon, as my nose twitches as I try to hold back hysterical giggles at Davai's fantasies.
Real countries? Hmm. Well, I suppose Sun Tzu didn't deal with modern systems. Let's see what sorts of silly things I might use to judge Israel. Clausewitz's Vom Kriege? Mao On Protracted War? Lawrence's Seven Pillars of Wisdom? Warden's Planning the Air Campaign? Giap's Peoples' War, Peoples' Army? Fall's Hell in a Very Small Place [especially relevant for reasons you wouldn't grasp]?
Oh, but those are long books. Perhaps some of Brodie's and Schelling's papers on deterrence and compellance? A few things from the Strategic Studies Institute at Carlisle Barracks, or the McNair papers? The current Studies in Intelligence?
Things you probably haven't read, such as Sokolovsky's Soviet Military Strategy, or the IRONBARK papers from Military Thought?
Really really silly things, like the actual details of the boom-booms that you rave about but exhibit little understanding thereof? I suppose I shouldn't complain about you, since the IDF doesn't appear to read the doctrinal manuals on the equipment they get from the US. No, Davai, I am not suggesting you read the TTP on the M270. You wouldn't understand it.
But enough things you won't grasp anyway. Why do you think that I want to find an elegant solution for Israel? I'm simply pointing out Israel's brutalities, futilities, and probable war crimes, and suggest they get their act together. Yes, yes, I know, Hamas is the reincarnation of all the Einsatzgruppen that are going to roll over all the poor defenseless Israelis. Hamas and their invisible Panzergruppen.
Do you have any idea how laughable you are?
--
Howard
...with respect to real countries...
Dulce Et Decorum Est
Bent double, like old beggars under sacks,
Knock-kneed, coughing like hags, we cursed through sludge,
Till on the haunting flares we turned our backs
And towards our distant rest began to trudge.
Men marched asleep. Many had lost their boots
But limped on, blood-shod. All went lame; all blind;
Drunk with fatigue; deaf even to the hoots
Of disappointed shells that dropped behind.
GAS! Gas! Quick, boys!-- An ecstasy of fumbling,
Fitting the clumsy helmets just in time;
But someone still was yelling out and stumbling
And floundering like a man in fire or lime.--
Dim, through the misty panes and thick green light
As under a green sea, I saw him drowning.
In all my dreams, before my helpless sight,
He plunges at me, guttering, choking, drowning.
If in some smothering dreams you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil's sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,--
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.
December 1, 2007 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reply at the end
December 1, 2007 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard,
As wrote before, I have some respect for you, however when you lose argument you behave exactly the same way as our dearest friend Seth:
I propose that you're an asshole.
Notice how our all arguments end, when you about to lose argument, you start personal attacks.
I don't personaly attack you, I don't need to,
I can win argument, you can't.
Good night, dear Howard, try to be a good sport next time.
December 1, 2007 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be quite wrong of me to call you an asshole, and I did not. While you may be content to take command of the English language and lead it into suicidal charges, I have too much respect for the language to use it inappropriately. Calling you an asshole would be inappropriate, since the human anus has at least one useful purpose.
We don't have arguments, at least in the intellectual sense, which implies some level of equality. At some point, when I am patiently showing you the illogic of your ways, you consistently announce that you won't discuss any more, and then claim you have won the argument. Would a player simply getting up and leaving a chess game in play be consider a winner, or more likely a loser by forfeit.
Do not think that I have the slightest respect for you. I do not engage you for that reason. Rather, it is a situation where you appear to be mildly convincing about some of your absurdities, or that you have lied so blatantly that I cannot let it stand.
We have never had a meaningful argument, so it is moot to say you have won a thing. Actually, some of your inaccuracies do serve a value in presenting the facts in matters in which you flounder, so, perhaps, you have a minimal use and do qualify as an anus, after all. For that reason, I dedicate this song to you.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go" [Oscar Wilde]
December 2, 2007 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 2, 2007 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Get over this.
December 2, 2007 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 2, 2007 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that Jewish zealots on the right and on the left are a minority of our community.
Jewish zealots on the Right don't want to change anything, Jewish zealots on the Left blame Israel for everything.
December 2, 2007 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
That you call me a friend demonstrates you are either a liar or fool. I make no pretense that you are a waste of photons and a contemptible authoritarian who, I suppose, helps Israel by not being there.
Becoming an anus would imply you were moving up on the evolutionary scale. In human terms, I suggest a fecalith in the Circle of Willis, but a pseudopod, or perhaps a colony of myxomyceteae, might be more accurate.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 2, 2007 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not funny and rude. You can do better. Try again, my dearest friend Howard.
December 2, 2007 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Arafat didn't walk out. Negotiations continued at Taba until Israel walked out.
December 2, 2007 3:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Howard,
Rather than using the word "asshole", I personally prefer "posterior opening of the alimentary canal."
December 2, 2007 4:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bev,
lets not forget, the Hagee gang are 'good Christian folk.'
December 2, 2007 4:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Davai: The Man Who Makes Liberals Appreciate Tancredo, Dobbs and Buchanan
December 2, 2007 5:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only Buchanan. Buchanan is an antisemite and some on the Left as you seems to implied share his views On another hand, Tancredo, Dobb are not against legal immigration, they are against illegal immigration and they are not antisemites.
December 2, 2007 6:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds too long:
Howard, posterior opening of the alimentary canal.
Davai, not posterior opening of the alimentary canal.
December 2, 2007 6:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
BTW MJ, What're your views about the
"right of return" issue? Do you care to share your views?
December 2, 2007 6:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Del
December 2, 2007 6:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
REply at the end.
December 2, 2007 7:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Howard, this is real life and it has nothing to do with your understanding of the books you read.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_Fallujah
December 2, 2007 7:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dear MJ,
I saw your interview with Moyers and Ronald Sider and thought you (both) were terrific. Moyers really pressed the devil's advocate view, and you both came back well.
(BTW, both my wife and I could have sworn that Sider was Jewish, maybe a convert, but we see he is not.)
Anyway, one thing that hasn't been mentioned, but made Wapo's front page the next day, was Moscow's commitment to hold a follow-up to Annapolis next year (I think).
To be sure, they want to balance out Washington's role in all this, but I found it to be a good development. What do you make of it?
December 2, 2007 8:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
petermschwartz52,
If MJ can resist the temptation to play the troll game and actually start to take his blogging seriously, I would look forward to his assessment of the Moscow proposal too.
December 2, 2007 8:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
My argument was a statement of fact: the immigrants are the new Europe. My opinion is that considering European history, it's a good thing too.
my other opinions are that you're an asshole and an idiot.
clear enough?
December 2, 2007 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
What the fuck is wrong with you, MJ? Is this the level of discourse (for lack of a better word) that you really want to enable beneath your own byline? Please get a grip.
December 2, 2007 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 2, 2007 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce, It's your "teacher".
Would you like such a teacher for your children?
December 2, 2007 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wordie, don't be asshole, don't rate 0, stay out of asshole discussion that Howard and I are having, let's us have some asshole fun.
December 2, 2007 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zionista is bent out of shape because a racist idiot BUT A FELLOW JEW is being ridiculed.
Watch your language, too. Odd that someone who dubs herself ZIONISTA is the one person who uses the f-word around here. Yech.
December 2, 2007 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zionista,
I'm behind on my reading of this thread (I've got to do SOME work).
What do you mean here?
December 2, 2007 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce,
Here is an example of a student of your "teacher". You children can be exactly like Sean, if they follow your "teacher".
December 2, 2007 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's scary to me John is that some Israelis don't see this part of the equation. I think if more of them did they would run away from this nutjob faster than a car at a NASCAR race. I can only hope that more of them see through his smokescreen of support for Israel. As you said it's far from altruistic and is more self serving in the way that he will make tons of money for himself. Shades of Jim Bakker, Oral Roberts (and his now disgraced son) and all the rest of the so called "preachers" who make all the big bucks.
December 2, 2007 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
1-They are home.
2-If you paid attention you'd know that radicalism in British Muslim communities is fed by the disaffected adolescent children of fully assimilated parents.
3- Europe has not tried to assimilate its immigrants. Jus sanguinis is still the rule in society if not in law.
4- I live in Queens NY where 46% of the population is foreign born.
They're all becoming Americanized too, quickly and well. But they're changing the country too, which is good. Still, Jus sanguinis is more foreign to this country, even at its worst, than they are. "White" is a very broad category.
Your ignorance of the world feeds your blindness about the middle east, (and vice-versa).
There are more problems in Europe, but the Europeans are more to blame than anyone.
There are problems in the middle east, but along with all the corruption in the arab states, Israel is right at the center. And remember, MJR argued that Arab democracy will be bad for Israel. And hasn't that been the argument all along?
Paranoia, defended by racist arguments.
December 2, 2007 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's really as simple as this: if Israel makes an all-out effort to turn the New Palestine into the most economically advanced and prosperous of all Arab states, then it will succeed in obtaining a peaceful and happy future for itself. Nothing could be more certain. It's closest neighbor would then have more in common with it than all of the other Arab 'countries.' What will happen is New Palestine will become Israel's biggest defender, because every good thing that will be happening to the Palestinian people will depend on the continuing help of the Israelis, people whom they will no longer view with a feeling of humiliation.
Iran's 'problem' with Israel would automatically disappear if the Palestinians were happy with the price that they got for the land they sold to the Israelis. The only reason why Iran has any interest in Israel is because Israel's founders invaded and colonized some of the most holy lands of the Muslim religion. Iran's leaders want to be religious heroes; they don't want to be architects of mass destruction. If the Palestinians and the rest of the Sunni world are celebrating the great face-saving victory that Allah had finally given to his long-suffering people, I'm quite sure that the Iranians would be quite eager to hop on the bandwagon and declare they they were instrumental in bringing about the great victory for Islam.
You need to understand the great emotional impact that an extremely generous settlement would have on the whole Arab world. The Muslims are just as tired of the fighting as the Israelis are, but they cannot, they will not accept peace with humiliation. If an extremely generous offer were made that would enable them to end the struggle with their heads held high, they would jump at the opportunity to declare victory and concern themselves with writing their history books, instead. The Iranians would be no different in this regard.
That's all I have time for now...
December 2, 2007 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not going to play with Davai's twisting and lies. Even assuming Wikipedia is authoritative, I suggest that anyone who believes that Davai is being accurate, on such things as when the major damage occurred (See Second Battle of Fallujah), actually look at the three Battle of Fallujah articles there, perhaps at some links, and decide for yourself who is twisting history.
It should be obvious that whenever Davai is given a very specific response, he abruptly changes the subject to something quite different where he can regain, in his limited grasp, control. That often manifests itself as a barrage of loaded questions, a declaration he has won the argument, or much hand-waving.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
December 2, 2007 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm.
Davai is irritating.
Davai can be wrong-headed in what he says.
But can you really point to comments that are racist?
Has he made any slurs against Arabs?
It would seem that you are imputing racist motives to Zionista here. Also you seem to be suggesting, in an indirect way by reference to her screen name, that "Zionism" is somehow a racist ideology.
I think it's hard to argue rationally that the Palestinian people--a small group--deserve a country and that Jews--a small group--do not. At bottom, that's all that Zionism is: "an international political movement that supports a homeland for the Jewish People in the Land of Israel."
That from Wikipedia. Of course, some people accuse Wikipedia of being Zionist, but that's a discussion for another time...
We can also argue about whether the Jewish people are a people. And we can argue about whether the Palestinian people are a people. I tend to say, "yes," to both.
December 2, 2007 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Jews are a distinct historic people connected with a specific territory for 4000 years. The Palestinians are not. Although there is an Arab people that are called "Palestinians", such a thing did not exist before 1948, when the Arabs rejected the name "Palestinian". Then , the word "Palestinian" meant "Jew".
Time for a pop-quiz....Let's say you are a speechwriter for Abbas. You want to tie your current leader to great Palestinians of history. Give me some names of great Palestinians of the past (one condition--you can't do like Arafat and claim Jesus was a "Palestinian"....if you asked him who he was and where he lived he would say "A Jew from Galilee and Judea")
December 2, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Howard,
I'm not twisting anything. If you have problems with Wikipedia, correct their article.
We started with hypothetical scenario:
To answer this question I suggested that First_Battle_of_Fallujah is a good approximation.
Probably, US reaction would be much stronger in hypothetical scenario we've discussed. If you have a better real life example, please point to it, if you don't that's fine with me, but there is no need for personal insults.
December 2, 2007 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still don't understand what your point.
Do you support two state solution or not, do you advocate "the right of return" or not?
December 2, 2007 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
More of MJ's "terminological inexactitudes" (A Churchillian description of an untruth)..
The "Wave of terrorism in 1996 carried out by HAMAS was SPECIFICALLY approved by Arafat.
It was NOT done to "undermine Arafat" as MJ claims. This matter was discussed in the Knesset. MK Benny Begin asked about the open media reports that Arafat had given approval for a wave of suicide bombings, and Peres confirmed it was true. It was stopped because Clinton was ticked off at Arafat because he was afraid it would lead to Peres' defeat in the 1996 election.
Now a quote from MJ:
--------------------
The fear he expresses in the interview is precisely what will impel him toward peace. To his credit, Olmert also seems to have developed a genuine empathy with Mahmoud Abbas and an understanding of Palestinian suffering. He is now a man on a mission. Like Rabin, and unlike Barak, he approaches the Palestinian leadership not as an emperor relates to the natives but with respect.
-----------------------
Did Olmert call you on the phone and tell you about his newfound "empathy" with Holocaust-denier and master dissembler Abbas? Rabin told then-IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon shortly before he was murdered that Oslo was a disaster and Israel had to get out of it. How do you translate that into "respect for Arafat" (the "Palestinian leadership")?
You say Barak "did not have respect" for Arafat. He offered Arafat almost everything regarding his territorial demands including Judaism's holies site, in addition to billions of dollars plus there are reports he was willing to at least formally recognize the "Right of Return". Why do you say this wasn't "respect"?....because of those stories we heard about Camp David where Arafat was offended becaue Barak talked at dinner with Chelsea Clinton and not with the arch-terrorist himself?
December 2, 2007 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Peter, just saw your nice note. I enjoyed doing the show. Moyers is a great man and it was a privilege to be interviewed by him.
I think the Russian involvement might be a good thing. As Daniel Levy points out. Olmert wants to be pressured by the US (so he can tell his coalition partners that he has no choice but to dismantle settlements, etc) but Bush (Abrams) won't do it. So Russia and the EU both help Olmert by leaning on him. We'll see.
Never get too optimistic about the Middle East!
December 2, 2007 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think I've read anything more absurd than this. This is the kind of stuff David Duke would say.
December 2, 2007 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 2, 2007 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ,
Please keep this info secret.
If Israeli people find out that Olmert asked US,
Russia, and EU to presure Israel into making concessions, I doubt that Olmert will last as prime minister for a day.
December 2, 2007 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rose-colored glasses...
Putin is returning Russia to the status of an authoritarian state. Russia's economic improvement in recent years is largely due to the big increase in the price of oil. In order to maintain a high price for oil, it is in Putin's interest that there be ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. Do you seriously think that he wants Arab/Israeli peace under those conditions?
December 2, 2007 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Davai is one of the least racist of all the supporters of Israel on this site and also one of the most honest.
December 2, 2007 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please specify what I said that was "absurd".
December 2, 2007 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
It wasn't so much what you said but that you said it.
December 2, 2007 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Question for the non-negotiators---How's that occupation working out for you?
December 2, 2007 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am afraid I still don't understand what you mean. What did I say that is incorrect, if not "absurd"?
December 2, 2007 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Israel was a dictatorship like Syria or Iraq under Saddam, Jews could run a country being a small minority.
I don't think that it makes any difference whether the Palestinian people are a people or not.
December 2, 2007 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if you want, we can refer to them as "Arabs who lived in the region called Palestine for quite a few centuries."
Without trying to find great leaders--which may or may not be a good test of peoplehood--most people would agree that longevity in a region gives anyone a stake, a legitimacy in the region.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law? Possession for a long time should fill in the tenth tenth.
Let's put it this way, though the Arab people living there may not have been called Palestinians prior to 1948...there were still Arab people living there, whatever you want to call them. They have a claim on at least SOME of the land. How could they not?
"...such a thing did not exist before 1948,..." but the PEOPLE did. So whether you want to talk about "a people" or just "people," it doesn't much matter. Thoughts?
December 2, 2007 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that Arabs lived in Eretz Israel before 1948. This does not mean that they had a unique national identity. The only people who have lived in Eretz Israel since ancient times who have a unique national identity are the Jews. Now, the question is, since I oppose the "2-state solution" and "territories for peace" (which would never bring peace as more and more people, including Tony Blair are beginning to realize, at least under current conditions), the question then becomes what to do about the Arabs living in Judea/Samaria and Gaza. I have stated in the past, that Judea/Samaria should become a condominium under joint Israeli/Jewish-Arab rule with Israeli law applying to the Jews living there and Arab rule to the Arabs in conjuction with the Arab state east of the Jordan River currently called "The Kingdom of Jordan", although it may eventually come under the rule of someone else other than the current Hashemite monarchy. If and when the security situation improves, the Israeli military presence can be greatly reduced and the roadblocks opened and free passage can be granted to Arabs not just in Jude