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Searching for the Causes of Terrorism

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The cover article in the New York Times’ Sunday Magazine on November 25th was a long, meandering and sometimes insightful piece by Andrea Elliott that probes the causes of terrorism. (The article is available here) Elliott explored the sources of terrorism by closely examining the lives of several terrorists who grew up in a neighborhood of the Moroccan city of Tetouan known as Jamaa Mezuak. She laboriously chronicles the key players’ descent into terrorism and tries to draw some general lessons from their life histories.

Elliott’s theme is that experts – although she only cites two – are increasingly turning to peer pressure and group dynamics as a cause of terrorism. The article raises some deep issues about the meaning of “causality” and provides some tantalizing facts about the origins of the Madrid.

Elliott argues that, “in the study of contemporary terrorism, there has never been a laboratory quite like Jamaa Mezuak.” This is an odd claim. There are 14,000 terrorist incidents a year, according to the National Counterterrorism Center. Five inhabitants of Jamaa Mezuak were involved in the Madrid train bombings in March 2004 and a handful of men from the same neighborhood have allegedly tried to join the insurgency in Iraq, although their whereabouts and actions are mostly unknown.

I would call Jamaa Mezuak more of a case study than a laboratory. A laboratory implies some type of an experiment; usually, one variable or process is manipulated to determine the effect on the outcome of interest. Jamaa Mezuak provides a single case, one observation. There are no comparisons to other cities. No variables are manipulated. Instead, a jumble of possible factors – family networks, friend networks, outrage at American aggression in Iraq, etc. – are tossed together and inferences are drawn about causes of terrorism.

It is useful to back up and ask how causality should be defined in the field of terrorism. Ordinarily, if we say X causes Y to occur, we mean that if X did not happen Y would not happen either. That is, causality requires a comparison of counterfactual situations. Randomized laboratory experiments solve this problem by arbitrarily assigning the treatment of X and examining what happens to Y. Nothing like this is done in the case study of Jamaa Mezuak, and I would venture to add that nothing like this is done in studies of peer pressure and group dynamics on participation in terrorism.

The issue is important because it is possible that some other factor that is related to X causes Y to happen. X may just be masking the underlying causal factor. Moreover, X may not cause Y, but something about the outcome Y may cause it to occur together with X. That is, we could have reverse causality.

Notice also that some phenomenon have multiple causes. Y may be caused by the combination of both X and Z. Suppose John Doe is killed in a head-on car crash in which the other driver veered into his lane. One could conclude the reckless driving of the other driver caused Mr. Doe’s death. But suppose that Mr. Doe was not wearing his seat belt at the time. Had he worn his seatbelt, he would have escaped with minor injuries. The absence of the seat belt also caused Mr. Doe’s death. In this case, there are multiple causes of Mr. Doe’s demise.

Back to Ms. Elliott’s article. Elliott cites the father of one of those linked to the Madrid bombings as saying: “It’s the problem of friends. If you’re friends with a good person, you’re good. If your friend is a pickpocket, you become a pickpocket.”

Leaving aside the issue that this explanation exonerates the son of responsibility because his friends made him do it, this simple theory may be, well, too simple. People do not randomly choose their friends. They seek friends who are like minded and like intended. Also, friends are selective about whom they admit to their group. A “good person” may not want to befriend a pickpocket. A group of “good people” many not allow a “bad person” to join them.

Now, it is not surprising that terrorists are parts of groups. There are many explanations for this phenomenon, not least of which is the fact that the State Department definition of terrorism requires that terrorists be part of “subnational group”. Hesham Mohamed Hadayet, the Egyptian immigrant who opened fire at the El Al Airlines counter in Los Angeles in 2002, was not labeled a terrorist because he acted alone. How did his actions differ from those of a group that dispatches one of its members to shoot passengers on an Israeli airline? How do group dynamics explain his behavior?

Importantly, terrorist groups actively recruit people to their cause, as Elliott mentions in her piece. And terrorist groups deploy their members when they think it is in their interest to do so. Merely pointing out that terrorists tend to run in terrorist circles, or that terrorists become radicalized together, does not mean that the group dynamics or peer effects caused the individuals to carry out terrorist attacks. This exercise, which may be becoming increasingly popular among some terrorism experts, is more a description of a phenomenon than a causal analysis of it. What is the counterfactual situation? How do we know that absent contact with some individuals the terrorists would not have committed an act of terrorism? Studies that show how terrorists are linked to each other do little to uncover the underlying factors that cause some to become terrorists.

A more interesting causal factor to study, in my view, is the set of issues that bring would-be terrorists into the orbit of terrorist groups in the first place. For example, the residents of Jamaa Mezuak commonly cited American occupation of Iraq as a reason for their support of Jihad and as the explanation of why some men left for Iraq. If the U.S. had not invaded Iraq, does anyone think that these young men would be joining terrorist groups and embarking for Iraq? A major lesson that I draw from Elliott’s reporting is that geopolitical developments have caused an increase in the supply of terrorists. At a minimum, one would have to say there are multiple causes.

Elliott’s piece is chock full of interesting facts and stories. An interesting fact that I learned is that Sarhane Fakhet, the former economics graduate student who planned the Madrid attacks, read a document on the internet that suggested making the “utmost use” of the approaching Spanish elections. The causes of terrorism, however, are unlikely to be uncovered from Jammaa Mezuak in isolation.


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I pieced together the following narrative from interviews with his mother, six of his siblings and his Moroccan lawyer, as well as neighbors and friends. A number of them had never spoken with a reporter. Andrea Elliot NYT 11/26/2007

An interesting fact that I learned is that Sarhane Fakhet, the former economics graduate student who planned the Madrid attacks, read a document on the internet that suggested making the “utmost use” of the approaching Spanish elections. Alan Krueger

Are you sure it's a "fact," Perfessur? Don't want you drinking the Kool-Aid, now.

The problem with the group dynamics accounts is that people everywhere are influenced by peer pressure and other group dynamical factors. I have little doubt that it is true that dispositions to engage in terrorism are spread or heightened within social groups and networks. But recognizing this phenomenon is relatively unhelpful. Dispositions to engage in just about any kind of behavior are spread and heightened by social groups and networks.

What would be the alternative to the view that group dynamics and peer pressure play a contributing causal role in spreading the disposition to engage in terrorism? That terrorism is caused entirely by genetic predispositions? Or that the disposition to engage in terrorism is born entirely from ambient environmental and gross social-environmental factors that are entirely independent of the specific peer groups or social networks and organizations to which one belongs? Neither seems at all plausible.

Now obviously, everyone recognizes that we find terrorists belonging to smallish groups, cliques, gangs etc. consisting in part of other terrorists. But one might hold that the reason for this is that the disposition to engage in terrorism comes first, prior in some way to group membership, and people with that disposition are then drawn together to form groups to pursue their common interest in engaging in terrorism. This must be part of the story, but one strongly doubts it is all of the story.

So suppose we accept the hypothesis that the disposition to engage in terrorism is spread, in part at least, in the manner of a communicable disease, from one member of a group to the next, so that these dispositions do not pre-exist group membership, but are created or heightened after one falls in with a group where they are common. Well, what follows from this?

Not much. The specific group dynamics and peer pressure at play might be no different than those at play within groups of young men everywhere, or at least everywhere within that broader society. So how would our knowledge of the role of groups help to prevent terrorism? The means are limited. Do we push for laws that young men can not hang around in groups of other young men? That they cannot assemble? That they cannot chat on the internet or participate in blogging networks? That they cannot join community centers, clubs or mosques?

So much of the discussion of terrorism seems bent on "psychologizing" terrorism, and treating it as a highly abnormal or pathological phenomenon that can in principle be combated with the right kind of psychological hygiene. Or they find the sources of terrorism in the psychological pathologies that accompany conditions of extreme economic or social deprivation: not enough money, not enough dignity, not enough status, not enough ass. These discussions depict the disposition to engage in terrorism as some kind of weird mania, depression or radically distorted belief system. But I'm not convinced that there is anything fundamentally at work here that is not at work in the all-too-human propensity to engage in violence found everywhere - in wars, uprisings and revolutions throughout history.

People develop, in a variety of ways, social and political attitudes and aims. They sometimes become convinced that they cannot achieve their aims without employing violence of some kind. Given the asymmetry in standard forms of military power between themselves and their opponents, they might become convinced that the desired effect will require the kinds of violent means available to the weaker party in a dispute - not armies, but bombs, Molotov cocktails, rocks and brickbats, etc. They may also become convinced that their only hope of success is to employ these techniques not only against the police and military combatants of their enemies, who are strong and not very vulnerable, but against non-combatants as well. These calculations might all be entirely rational.

At this point, the question becomes this: are the political aims so vital and important, and the costs of failing to achieve them so dreadful, that one will violate one's usual moral norms against killing innocents and non-combatants?

We know people will kill innocents if they believe that the stakes are sufficiently great. If I simply want to pass a law establishing socialized health care, or election finance reform, and find myself in a situation where my opponents are so powerful and numerous that I have no chance of success without engaging in violence against innocents, I may decide simply to accept my bitter fate rather than violate my most important moral taboos and start kllling people.

But if the political stakes in play are victory or loss in a great war against a dreadful and vile enemy, for example, many perfectly normal people will contemplate approaches that call for firebombing cities and killing many innocents. People are certainly prepared to inflict these casualties relatively frequently as a matter of collateral damage. But if the stakes are great enough, they will even contemplate killing non-combatants intentionally so as to intimidate and terrorize the population that quarters, supplies and supports one's combatant enemies.

Terrorists in the jihadist movement regard themselves as soldiers of a kind in a very important war. There are some in their broader communities who roughly share the same political aims, but do not judge those aims important enough to justify violating the common moral proscriptions against killing innocents. But jihadists who employ terrorism are people who judge those aims, and the historical and political stakes, so important that they are willing to kill you and me to accomplish them. Why is that so hard to understand?

Some people believe that the survival of their own community, in its traditional cultural, territorial or religious form, is so vital that assuring that community's survival justifies almost any measures taken on its behalf, if there are no other less drastic measures that hold the same promise of success. This is actually an extremely common outlook. If it is pathological, it is just the run of the mill pathology of wretched humanity.

“…we need to finally recognize that their fanatical, immoral desperation is fueled by a 100% legitimate cause, their pursuit of justice. They are not 'purely evil' as many would like to suggest…”

 

I agree with what you have written but wish to add that the Islamic terrorists that we are [mostly] talking about who have a morally justifiable reason to fight do not have the choice of joining a military and carrying that fight to their enemies. If they are justified in fighting and they only have one way to fight [terrorism] that has any chance of being effective, then that fact must enter into our judgment of their methods.

I would like to suggest, Alan, that the only way it is possible for American analysts to understand the phenomenon of terrorism is if they first acknowledge that the fire bombing of innocent civilians by American bomber pilots during WWII was just as outrageous and immoral as the suicide bombings that have occurred in Israeli restaurants.

Indeed, what we now refer to as 'strategic bombing' RAF strategists one time bluntly called Terror Bombing. Just ask yourself what inspired those men to slaughter hundreds of thousands of women and children and you will get a clue as to the kind of rationalization that occurs within the minds of Islamic terrorists.

Our bomber crews and their commanding officers felt their actions were justified for a number of reasons. Because our political and military leaders had so thoroughly demonized and de-humanized the Japanese people, the bomber crews found it easy to imagine the women and children they were roasting to death as an evil threat to the American people. Besides, even if the women and children we were slaughtering were innocent, they had their own evil leaders to blame for 'making us do this to them.' The Saudis who carried out the 911 attacks saw things precisely the same way.

We now insist that any and all attacks on innocent civilians are evil because no cause or injustice can justify such heinous behavior. But when our own country's terrorist acts have been condemned for precisely the same reasons, we argue that the end we were pursuing justified the means we used. Unleashing unimaginable brutality on Japan's civilian population (with firebombings, atomic bombs, etc.) was meant to save American lives by terrorizing them into surrendering. Islamic insurgents are today choosing terrorists actions for the same practical reasons.

What this lesson from history should teach us is that it is possible for an individual or a group (or a people) to use immoral means to pursue ends that are unquestionably moral. Americans know that, while the slaughter of innocent Japanese civilians may not have been morally justified, our participation in the war was justified because we were attacked. But just because your participation in a war is justified does not mean that any means you use to win the war is justified.

That is what we have been telling the Islamic militants, isn't it?

America's leaders are right to condemn suicide bombings as morally reprehensible, but they are hypocrites for trying to suggest that anyone who would commit such acts cannot possibly be acting in the pursuit of moral ends. We know from our own history that this is not true. The question we need to focus on is whether or not the Islamic militants are acting in pursuit of ends that are moral.

The reality we are dealing with today is that Islamic suicide bombers are pursuing ends that are actually morally justified, but are using means that are morally detestable. They are no more deserving of honor than America's bomber crews were in WWII, for the same reasons. For this reason alone we should continue to condemn their evil actions, but at the same time, we need to finally recognize that their fanatical, immoral desperation is fueled by a 100% legitimate cause, their pursuit of justice. They are not 'purely evil' as many would like to suggest...

Israel: Time For Soul Searching

Of course, on the other hand, as Elliott points out, the economic future for these men is so bleak and crime so rampant as a livelihood, that jihadism may seem to these men as the only legitimate way out of their predicament. If your only avenue of employment lies in stealing, smuggling, blackmarketing and drug dealing a religious cause might be seen as an act of redemption.

Elliott also remarks in her article that the brother of one of the jihadists said they were interested in jihadism before they were recruited.

You may well be right, Ellen, about poverty as a factor in terrorism.

In looking at the research and statistics in studies about terrorists and terrorism, while the majority were educated and had paying jobs, none of them had well paying jobs comeasurate with their level of education and training. The unemployment rate in Gaza is a whopping 75% and in East Jerusalem it is 68% for males aged 18 - 35, 63% of the population lives below the poverty line, the unemployment rate for Gaza and the West Bank is 20.3% with the per capita income at $1500.00.

So perhaps these terrorists did have jobs, but there doesn't seem to be many good paying jobs or jobs with the prospect of future advancement, so addressing poverty in these areas might well be the most productive avenue of reform.

Just thought you'd like to know.

I agree that suicide bombers, who emphatically are not all Islamic, are not necessarily acting immorally within their value system. It concerns me, however, that some of your analysis seems to be directed on a morality, and that certain aspects are not quite historically accurate.

Morality is not universal, so it does not lend itself to describing all terrorist behaviors. Let me deal with the process of suicide attack, with several example. Different moral systems easily could find certain of these acts moral or immoral.

Start with the pilot of a single-seat fighter or fighter-bomber. In the first example, he is dogfighting another fighter, and is hit with a burst of gunfire. He knows he is fast losing consciousness, but as his last act, he turns his aircraft to crash into the other, killing himself (perhaps minutes or seconds early), but also the other pilot.

A slightly more complex case would be where the mortally wounded pilot chose to dive his aircraft into the most valuable target he could see, not necessarily the one he was sent to hit. Assume it is a factory of some sort, and it actually makes civilian goods, but it looked, to the dying pilot, as if it was important to the enemy economy.

Moral complexity gets much deeper when one deals with Japanese kamikaze pilots, who started on their mission in perfect health. They might be wounded and crash into a target of opportunity, or into the sea. Nevertheless, they share with certain other individuals the quality that they are knowingly setting onto a suicide attack. The kamikaze method was selected as the only means available to the Japanese of the time to have a reasonable chance of damaging an aircraft carrier. If there were no carrier, any warship would do. Clearly military against military.

In the defense plans for an invasion of Japan, the orders changed. Troop transports, not warships, were the priority targets. These, however, carry soldiers. The orders, however, also said that a hospital ship was a valid target.

Now, thing of the LTTE suicide bombers in Sri Lanka, who are not necessarily of any religion, but are most likely to be Hindu. There is evidence that suicide bombing is seen by the LTTE leadership rather like the Japanese: it is a way to hit a specific and valuable target, an official that the LTTE wants to assassinate. Assume they do not believe they have any other way to kill that official. The moral complexity comes because the bomber could not reach the official in a well-guarded office, but only in a crowded public place. Innocents will be killed, but they are "collateral damage". LTTE, we think, isn't specifically trying to terrorize through civilian deaths, but knows it will produce them. Support for their targeting is they also use suicide techniques against warships.

Now, we come to the Palestinian bomber in the pizza parlor. There is absolutely no strategic significance to the target. The purpose of the attack is to spread fear and to make Israeli citizens less trustful that their government can protect them.



This has gotten long enough, and it does, I believe, raise questions of "what is moral", with such ethical questions of whether it is moral to kill soldiers who will eventually attack you, wounded soldiers who may attack you if they recover, innocent bystanders near an assassination target, and deliberately targeted innocent civilians who are the target.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Searching for the Causes of Terrorism

It is useful to back up and ask how causality should be defined in the field of terrorism. Ordinarily, if we say X causes Y to occur, we mean that if X did not happen Y would not happen either.

from the 2006 NCTC Report:
Of the 14,000 terrorist attacks in 2006, 6,600 occurred in Iraq and 750 (approximately) occurred in Afghanistan.
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:3bO4PcRHIl8J:wits.nctc.gov/reports/crot2006nctcannexfinal.pdf+NCTC+Report+on+Incidents+of+Terrorism+2006&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

That means that over half the terrorist attacks in 2006 occurred in countries which were invaded and occupied by the US, and (remembering the definition of causality) we can therefore conclude that the US is the primary cause of terrorism in the world, without even considering the terrorist attacks occurring elsewhere as a result of US imperialism.

This conclusion jibes with news reports of a year ago: "A classified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) contends that the war in Iraq has increased Islamic radicalism, and has made the terror threat around the world worse."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0925/dailyUpdate.html

This follows on to the arming and training of Islamic radicals under the Carter administration, a subject of this 1998 interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's National Security Adviser:

Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Islamic fundamentalism, having given arms and advice to future terrorists?

B: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?

Q: Some stirred-up Moslems? But it has been said and repeated Islamic fundamentalism represents a world menace today.

B: Nonsense! It is said that the West had a global policy in regard to Islam. That is stupid. There isn't a global Islam. . .
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/BRZ110A.html


ecotourism
WeGoEco.com

Now, I want to address the WWII bombing, which I believe is not a binary case of right-versus-wrong, if terror was the intent, and who was to be terrorized if so. I am reluctant to use "morality" in this context, because there were significantly different moral systems in use. Nevertheless, it is perhaps worth considering things such as Aquinas' Principle of Double Effect, in which it may be licit to harm some in pursuit of a greater goal. The usual example is that the only way to stop someone setting an orphanage (or some other clearly innocent target) on fire is to shoot him, with the intention of killing.

On December 7-8, 1941, Japanese aircraft attacked a number of military bases, Pearl Harbor being one of them. In all of those attacks, there were civilian casualties. Most were probably incidental, although their might have been some cases of strafing crowds.

In this discussion, it must be remembered that virtually all WWII bombing was extremely inaccurate by modern standards. A short-range dive bomber in close air support of troops was "danger close" within 1000-2000 yards. An American longer-range bomber could hit a factory and sometimes a large building, in daylight. A British or German night bomber could, at best, hit a target the size of part of a city.

The first retaliatory strike by the US was the Doolittle raid in April 1942. It was symbolic, but generally aimed at industrial target, if they could be identified, which was not a given. Doolittle told his crew that if he or the plane were critically damaged, he would offer the crew the chance to bail out, but he would then dive the aircraft into the best target (best not well defined) he could see.

Area bombing became common in the Battle of Britain. Significant numbers of civilians were killed from German bombs generally aimed at docks or factories, but that were only crudely aimed.

Arthur Harris, commander of the British Bomber Command, did establish a targeting strategy of "dehousing", or attacking the residential areas, at night, where factory workers were believed to live. Unquestionably, an intent was to demoralize, which the postwar Strategic Bombing Survey showed did not work. The bombing, however, was also intended to diable German industry by killing its workers. Harris' aircraft carried a fairly heavy bombload, but had relatively poor bombsights and defensive armament. Those three technical factors suited them only for area attack at night.

American long-range bombers attacking Europe carried much smaller bombloads, but more defensive armament and more accurate bombsights. Within certain limits, their targets were factory-sized and attacked in daylight. Civilian workers were clearly killed in the factories, and the inaccuracy was such that I'm sure bombs fell on civilian areas.

Technical problems, as well as the nature of the target, were different in the US bombing of Japan. High-altitude winds not present over Europe made high-level, relatively precise bombing impossible. Japanese industry was also much more scattered, and often mixed with residential areas. Fire bombing was one way of attacking those areas, but I am not at all convinced the attempt was to terrorize. I believe the primary intent was to destroy industry and its workers.

The nuclear bombings had both direct and indirect goals. The direct goal, especially in Hiroshima, was to destroy specific military targets. It was fully understood that large numbers of civilians would be killed, and the cities targeted deliberately had been only lightly bombed before, so the effects of the attack would be more distinct.

It is unclear how much we actually knew about the Japanese internal decisionmaking of the time, but the reality was that the leadership was not enormously concerned about civilian casualties, except to the extent they affected the military. Remember, the hard-liners were preparing a defense in which untrained civilians might be thrown into battle, although the stories about arming every civilian with a bamboo spear were probably legend. It is fairly clear that the culture was such that it would accept the death of every Japanese before being "dishonored", with the worst possible dishonor being the destruction of the spiritual significance of the monarchy. Look at the civilian suicides urged on Saipan, and it becomes hard to say the Japanese cared about civilian lives.

After WWII, we can talk about Mutual Assured Destruction, and the extent to which the population was, or was not, targeted.

I have no question that a terrorist may use suicide bombing as perceived as a means of attack. Not all "terrorist" or military attacks are suicidal, and they vary in the extent to which they avoid civilian casualties. LTTE suicide bombers probably regard civilian casualties as a side effect. Massive Israeli fire onto the sites of rocket launchers were intended to kill Hizbollah fighters, but the nature of the weapons were such that civilian casualties were to be expected, immediately and from unexploded bomblets that would act as land mines.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Actually, my bit of a snark was directed to Krueger's somewhat naive willingness to accept the word of a Columbia Journalism School NYT features writer. Andrea Elliot is the New York Times' "Muslim" reporter. She interviews the common man (and woman) and weaves a pleasing tale the truth of which is unascertainable.

In this case, last Sunday's feature, Ms. Elliot was straightforward concerning the source of her information (see, quoted language above). She admitted to relying on the hearsay of unsophisticated informants -- but we shouldn't.

I was referring to your post on the other thread.

just because your participation in a war is justified does not mean that any means you use to win the war is justified.
What if it is a question of avoiding the loss of the war?

Howard Blum in his book "The Eve of Destrustion" makes the point that at the darkest part of the Yom Kippur War, when I looked like Israel was about to be destroyed, the Israelis had Jets with nuclear weapons loaded sitting on the runway waiting for someone to simply pull the trigger. We know now that they didn't pull the trigger, but what if it had gotten just a little worse and they had nuked Egypt.

A real, believable threat to one's survival makes all talk of morality into just that. Talk.

If there were a superpower whose leaders talked serious about a Crusade against Christianity, then backed it up by invading two Christian nations and threatening to attack others, would you fight or just let them come?

Remember, they are a superpower. But fellow Christians had recently successfully uses asymmetric warfare and defeated another superpower. Are young Christians then justified in taking up arms and practicing Guerrilla/Partisan/Terrorist war to defend their nations and cultures?

I find using the tactics of asymmetric warfare (terrorism including suicide bombings) in those cases fully justified. The idea that someone can take a position of moral superiority to those fighters is simply foolish and ignorant. Those fighters may be wrong in what they believe for many reasons, but given what they believe, they are not immoral. Some things and some people are worth defending.

I think the distinctions you're making are rather superficial. Maybe that was the point, to show shades of gray. But I think it fails to define meaningful issues.

For example, I don't see any meaningful difference between a kamikaze pilot, and any other combat pilot. Any combat pilot is balancing a risk of loss of life, vs. a perceived value of objective. Many US pilots flew mission with high casualty rates, where the gain was perceived to be greater than the loss. Even if the casualty rate reaches 1, so long as the perceived gain is greater, it's still the same dilemma of war. Besides, the greatest harm done by kamikaze pilots was to the Japanese military, as the over emphasis on ritualistic sacrifice and honor resulted in terrible losses of trained combat pilots and hardware. The Japanese sustained high casualties throughout the war due to poor design for pilot survivability, which over-valued honor and sacrifice and under-valued living to fight another day. Which again isn't so much a moral dilemma as a logistical one, unless one concedes in the end they're much the same.

In regards to a different moral dilemma, take the use of the atomic bomb in Japan. Which is really three separate issues. There is the traditional dilemma of war which is basically accounting, where it can be argued a military should use what force it has to prevent it's own losses, and that an invasion of Japan would have been tremendously bloody on all sides. Secondly, there is the humanistic dilemma of whether a larger total loss of life, including Japanese lives, was prevented by using the bomb. Lastly there is the philosophical dilemma of the bomb itself, whether it's simply too powerful and the dangers of its misuse exceed human judiciousness and nature.

Which is more akin to the ancient rules of chivalry even in medieval times: that warring powers didn't want to completely annihilate each other, but simply wanted to supplant each other at the top of the food chain.

Similarly, warring countries typically protect things like art museums and cultural artifacts, to preserve those things which are common human heritage and irreplaceable. With some notable recent exceptions such as the Taliban dynamiting ancient buddahs, and Rumsfeld notoriously declaring that war and democracy are "messy" as Iraq was looted in the post invasion.

***

In regards to an attack on a pizza parlor, I think we should have the intellectual honesty to admit that it does have strategic value. Justifiability is another question entirely that can and should be addressed on its own terms. But pretending the pizza parlor has no strategic value is a rather flimsy argument.

AS war planners make the connection to between civilian lives and factories producing arms and decide on fire bombing a city, so too do asymmetric war planners correlate a pizza parlor to a civilian quality of life that allows technocrats to build economic and technology infrastructure, which eventually produces aircraft carries and such.

Denying that essential parity is just faux-morality and demagoguery, which may reassure people somewhat, isn't really helping solve problems.

Also, I tend to doubt that any sufficiently complex and intelligent organization can exist, that is both smart enough to pose a significant threat, and also stupid enough to fail to account for basic principals of common humanity and self preservation. While it's temping to portray AQ or such terrorist organizations as complete nutcases who would stop at nothing to achieve their ends, including their own annihilation or that of an entire region, their actions say otherwise.

I don't really think they're all a bunch of complete nutcases who simply "hate America" and "hate freedom" and such. I think they're fundamentalists, much like our own religious fundamentalists, who through a mixture of megalomania and zealousness seek a totalitarian theocratic rule without foreign influence.

As long as they perceive us to be interfering in their region, and coercively effecting their quality of life, through bolstering the Saudis for example, they're going to continue waging asymmetrical war. Just as any people instinctually would do so, and just as Americans have against our perceived oppressors in the past.

My view is that as much as those claims are truly deranged and irrational, we should be prepared to sacrifice for our values. However, we should also look closely at our actions and values, and where they're in conflict, stop taking actions that are only hurting our long-term interests by inflaming enemies and placing ourselves in morally ambiguous gray areas.

Good post, Kosmik.

The problem with the group dynamics accounts is that people everywhere are influenced by peer pressure and other group dynamical factors. I have little doubt that it is true that dispositions to engage in terrorism are spread or heightened within social groups and networks. But recognizing this phenomenon is relatively unhelpful. Dispositions to engage in just about any kind of behavior are spread and heightened by social groups and networks.
You seem to think that it is an individual decision what tactics to use. It's not.

Yes, it is group dynamics and a propensity for people to engage in certain kinds of behavior, but the tactics are decided by the leadership of the group. They then use the propensity of people to do what the leader says to do.

The leaders got there because they know how to use the group dynamics, and they select individuals who are likely to be ready to do what they are directed to do - in this case, violence.

Young men are easily led to war. That is a characteristic that is true around the world. It is as true in gangs as it is in terrorist groups or armies. It is now known that the human brain does not fully develop until around age twenty-five. Guys younger than that have a desire to act to solve problems, but lack the wisdom to know what actions are needed, and thus are easily led. Such people become the tools used by the group leaders.

Your last two paragraphs are dead on.

War, asymmetric or symmetric, is most often amoral. jus in bello, and the whole idea of proportional response and other aspects of just war theory tends to be dismissed when one side believes it is in immediate jeopardy, or has limited weaponry. This is one of the reasons I've been hard on Israel's use of M26 cluster submunition rockets against light artillery rocket firing sites, because Israel has options. Faced with the same threat (I'll assume 122mm GRAD), US doctrine will be to suppress fire with airburst 155mm howitzers, which, I believe,have a faster time of flight and a better chance of hitting the crew, but a lower chance of collateral damage -- no scattered unexploded bomblets. Even though the US M30 rockets are guided and can have more precise use, there are contracts issued to convert them to XM31 unitary warheads, and to convert most ATACMS missiles to unitary warheads. It may, indeed, be possible to make a fail-safe antipersonnel or dual-purpose bomblet; I can think of ways to do it, but the current generation don't use that technology.

In other words, if there are moral positions to be taken, the greater the set of options available to any belligerent, the more I am willing to speak of restraint being relevant under just war theory and the customary laws of land warfare. Asymmetric or not, however, I do not consider collective punishment ever to be viable, and falls under the doctrine that has traditionally been applied to piracy and slave trade: hostis humani generis, enemies of humanity who are fair game for any state.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Young men are easily led to war.

Deacon Jones . . . Jack Lambert . . . Lawrence Taylor . . . Ray Lewis . . . .

I would like to suggest, Alan, that the only way it is possible for American analysts to understand the phenomenon of terrorism is if they first acknowledge that the fire bombing of innocent civilians by American bomber pilots during WWII was just as outrageous and immoral as the suicide bombings that have occurred in Israeli restaurants.

Hi James,
Can you explain why this is only one way.
I want to understand why that particular British doctor, who was born in a Muslim county, decided to commit a terrorist act in London. Do I really need to understand what’s was the Truman’s reasons for ordering that Hiroshima bombing? Even if I do understand Truman’s reasons, how this would help to understand mmotivations of that British Muslim doctor?

So, didn't we figured out what's terrorism and what's insurgency?

You say that you respect my opinions? I will explain my rating. I cannot tell if you intend to do so or not, but this reads to me as an unconstructive challenge, adding nothing to the discussion, but implicitly criticizing those that have the integrity to put out hypotheses for criticism.

One of my greatest reason for finding your constant questioning irritating and actively counterproductive is that you never seem to have the courage to put out a position that might be criticized. Instead, you criticize others, and say their work is irrelevant, but cannot seem to take what you willingly give out.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

There is nothing wrong with criticizing others,
without putting out own position.

It's also a huge mistake to simply look at the individual's wealth and ignore the overall poverty levels and quality of life, especially in regards to coercive foreign influence.

Empathy and justice are very powerful instincts. They're shared traits observable in our higher primate ancestors, and certainly predate humanity as fundamental primate emotions and motivators. Much of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic faiths are based on empathy for one's own people, and martyrdom in the name of justice for those people.

From what I've read, the predominant theme among terrorists seems to be the notion of communal humiliation resulting from widespread poverty and coercive foreign influence, producing a sort of guerrilla vigilantism combined with a sort of noblesse oblige, or as I like to jokingly call it: Raging Batmanism.

But it's not going away as it seems to be fundamentally wired into the human sense of justice and meaning of life. I'll bet most people would rise to violence in defense of their communities if they perceived them to be under attack. While people may fail to call 911 if they see an isolated stabbing or such random violence, if was a systematic violence perceived to be of foreign origins... well we had a revolution, civil war, and two world wars for that.

It seems we should carefully look at which principles and national interests we're truly willing to sacrifice for, and do so, and take a second look at where we've wandered into morally gray areas, where we're failing our own long term interests, and adjust accordingly.

That's very interesting to me.  My guess is that in times of great social stress, the ressurection of paradigms from the past - "the good old days" - is likely to ocur. There are several historial examples:  The "wild man" mythologies of the early modern era in Northern Europe, maybe even the hippy movement from the 60s.  I'm thinking that jihadism may be just that - a very romanticized memory of the good old days of, say, Harun al Rashid (Aaron the just).  While the jihadists yearn for the golden age of black and white politics, they forget that old Aaron was only "just" in a limited fashion - those who were forced to surrender their tongues to Aaron couldn't speak out.  

My Rx is to let those who yearn for the caliphate have it.  That would leave them to blow up each other, and leave the rest of the world alone.  After all, the hippy movement failed because individual brainiacs really couldn't reinvent culture. 

Neoboho

"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; because there is not effort without error and shortcomings; but who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly. So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat."

[Theodore Roosevelt]

"He either fears his fate too much,
Or his desserts are small,
Who dares not put it to the touch,
To win or lose it all!"

[James Graham, 5th Earl of Montrose]

Rated 5 for eloquence in the definition of cowardice.

--
Howard

Yeah, but I think Dan is hovering around something important, without actually stating it.  Four or five years back, the first Palestine female suicide bomber, did her deed in Israel with tragic consequences.  Her familly was quite forthcoming with details on her motivations.  She wasn't particulary political or religious.  The conclusion, at least from what I read, was that her motivation was from style and fashion.  Killing innocent Isralis was a fashion statement.  How absurb!  But we really need to know if this is true.

Neoboho

I would tend to agree with many of your points. Every time there is a paradigm shift you have upheaval and distress in societies. I haven't really explored this but think back to the leap from the agricultural to industrial shift (just as an example) and the terrorism that occurred then - Sacco and Vancetti (among others) come to mind. Another would be Russia's leap from serfdom to freemen - that was a free-for-all of terrorism. You're on to something with this line of thought - look at the ascendancy of the conservative movement in this country coupled with a resurgence in fundamentalist religion - we're certainly undergoing a paradigm shift from industrial to techno/information society and along with that an uptick in rightwing terrorist groups in this country.
Something's going on, isn't it?

I agree with Hume - you cannot prove causation, you can only perceive correlation.

So, if I find errors in an RFC, the anwser will be "It is not the critic who counts" ?
It's a new concept.

Young men aren't easily led to war, that is why there are drafts, penalties and rewards in coercing them to join.

The average "terrorist group" is 5 - 8 people and the model is "leaderless resistance" which is why terrorism today is so confounding - there seems to be no hierarchy of command which is why it is so ridiculous that states make demands on groups like Hamas to stop the violence before they will negotiate or remove sanctions. There isn't one "group" of terrorists, there are thousands of groups, each with its own group dynamics and in the group dynamics are the individual psychodynamics of the persons in the group.
This is an interesting subject to discuss, but it is essentially bullshit because we can never know what causes terrorists to act - it is simply unknowable.

As usual, you twist terms and lie. For those unfamiliar with how Internet technical standards ar developed, a publication is known by the term "Request For Comment" or RFC.

Originally, an RFC was literally that: a draft for comment. As the process developed, an RFC (with certain exceptions clearly marked as individual contributions) had gone through a number of Internet Drafts, usually starting in a Working Group of specialists, then going through Area Director review, and then through review by a group of elected "elders", the Steering Group.

The last RFC I published, IIRC, went through 6 drafts before Steering Group approvals. I've never seen one go through the first time. One very critical specification (BGP) reached consensus after, IIRC, 26 drafts.

Now, how is this different from Davai's snide remark? First, people systematically put their work out for peer review, which is quite different from "criticism". Simply speaking, no one will be taken seriously, as a peer reviewer, if they haven't done their own original work, both as documents that have gone through the same process, and, usually, have demonstrated their ability to build demonstrably working implementations in accordance with the document.

If TPMcafe worked like the IETF, posts would be much lengthier, with both theoretical and experimental data, and get line-by-line review by peer reviewers who have earned professional respect for actual contributions, not just criticism.

In other words, Davai, you understand the IETF process about as well as you understand reasonable discussion at TPMcafe. In my estimation, you remain an intellectual coward, afraid to put out your work because others might find fault with it, but eager to criticize anyone else with the gonads to take a stand and defend it.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"It is much easier to be critical than to be correct." [Benjamin Disraeli]

In the abstract sense, there is never any justification for war. But war is a general overall situation in which individuals have to act, and individual actions are not abstractions.

Were the leaders of Israel justified in conducting a preemptive attack against the gathering Egyptian troops that started the combat phase of the Six-day War? Many of those leaders had fought the Arabs when the British pulled out and failed to take any action at all to prevent violence in the 1948 War for Independence and they knew what they were facing.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is a rational response to the repression of poor Egyptians by the government of Egypt, and the repression of the Egyptian Brotherhood (who assassinated Anwar Sadat) is a rational response to the threat faced by the government of Mubarak. Neither set of responses are the only possible response, but it is really difficult to convince teenagers that Ghandi's and King's non-violence is likely to be effective.

I had a Tunisian college roommate for a while who hated the French. He on several occasions spoke of the time a French Foreign Legionnaire kicked in their door, then kicked in his father's face. Salah blamed the French. I rather doubt that I would have been any more charitable had it happened to my father.

Personally, I think the use of cluster submunitions by the Israelis was intended to punish the Lebanese for permitting Hezbollah to operate from their territory.

Sure it's counterproductive in the long run, but so is hitting your child to make him mind. Both are very satisfying at the time they are done, conservatives tend to act from fear and demand immediate results, and a lot of people have no trust at all in the good will of other people, especially their enemies. Unfortunately, Ghandis and Kings are quite rare. (I think I'd include Mandela in that group.)

But my point is that a lot of people feel they have good reasons to fight rather than consider the morality of fighting. Do you prevent terrorists from killing people today in Kashmir, or do you approach it with the idea that the deaths that they commit today are necessary to reach a long-term just and moral solution to the conflicts?

How often can you extend trust to someone who abuses that trust? I currently have that problem with movement conservatives and evangelical Republicans. I not only don't think they negotiate conflicts in good faith, I don't think they every will. [That's not unique to Republican politicians, but they seem to have a culture that encourages duplicity as practiced by Nixon's plumbers, Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, and they seem frankly proud of it.]

I can understand why some kids think the most moral thing to go is go fight. You don't reach those kids by lecturing them from a position of moral superiority and telling them their actions are immoral. That kind of argument is most likely to become effective after they become older and become parents. You have to show them there are other, better ways to deal with the problems they feel impel them to fight.

If you aren't also trying to provide education, health care, housing and jobs to them and those around them, I don't think you can be credible about suggesting alternate ways to deal with conflict besides fighting.

I prefer to use the term asymmetric warfare to terrorism because the term 'terrorism' is nothing more than a pejorative used to label evil people and to 'explain' why they are enemies.

The pejorative 'terrorism' is used to conceal the fact that those people most likely think they are coming from the moral high ground themselves. The use of the term 'terrorism' to describe what your enemies are doing has the effect of limiting solutions to little more than killing or imprisoning them.

If you want to stop or prevent a fight, then driving your opponents into a corner where their choice is to fight or die is highly counterproductive. Calling your opponents 'terrorists' has that effect. Looking at what they do as a rational form 'asymmetric warfare' opens a lot of routes to somehow stopping or preventing the fight.

But as I pointed out in another comment, the tactics used are decided by the leaders of the group of insurgents/guerrillas/Partisans/Whatever. The individual terrorists themselves are just tools being used to conduct the war. Each of them is replaceable. The war can only be stopped by dealing with the leaders.

The only factor I can find that they all seem to have in common is a personal, humiliating affront to their dignity and a personal rejection by those more powerful. Whether it is Hitler, Stalin, Lenin or the Columbine school shooters they all have this in common.

Another common factor is their willingness to kill members of their own group in order to make the "grand gesture". That has to mean something, I just am not sure what...

Would you agree that a certain subset of tactics in asymmetric warfare may be grouped as terrorism? Other than it would be a tonguetwister, I'd even prefer "asymmetric conflict resolution" to asymmetric warfare.

For example, in some cultures that practice the custom of potlatch, the greatest status accrues to those who give the most to others. In these cultures, this is not seen as bribery, but as a free choice.

While I don't regard Thomas Barnett as always right, I think that he has a good point in his concept of the "connected core" of nations, and that the dysfunctional societies are ones that do not, in a very broad sense of the word, have the ability to interact, productively, with the connected core. "Productively" here is a key, as maximal globalization, with no concern for individual rights, preservation of human capital, and infrastructure development is not productive.

Cornering an opponent is usually a very bad idea, unless you are adept in forms of combat that work best when close in. The opponents in South Vietnam used to speak of "hugging" the Americans, because if they were in close contact, overwhelming air and artillery power -- a different sort of asymmetry could not be used against them. There are also martial arts techniques that can be used only when at very close range, such as being inside the distance at which one can box.

A rabbit is optimized to run away, but there have been some fearfully mauled predators that cornered a rabbit and did not kill it quickly.

There are so many forms of asymmetric warfare. Now, I'm a pretty good shot, but I have a running argument with a friend who maintains the right to keep and bear arms is the most fundamental civil right, and the guarantor of the First Amendment. At one time, that might have been true, but not against competent militaries. OTOH, if I ever had to resist a tyranny or occupier, I'd be far more of a threat with a computer, or perhaps improvised electronic warfare equipment, scrambling their command, control and communications.

There is a set of techniques that I could call terror, or perhaps a specialized class of psychological operations (or information operations in the latest buzzphrase). They can be chosen, or not chosen.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Not yet, davai, what would be your opinion?

I don't think I said anything that contradicts what you said Rick. Rather than argue that the decision to engage in terrorism is mainly just an individual choice, I agreed that it is heavily influenced by group dynamics. I just don't think that this is a particularly important or helpful observation.

My central point could be summed up this way: Figuring out what causes people to engage in terrorism is pretty much the same thing as figuring what causes people to engage is conventional warfare that targets civilian populations. And people have been doing the latter forever. What I repudiate is the notion that terrorism is predominantly some sort of social disease or psychological pathology, that should be addressed by being diagnosed and cured. It should be addressed, I would argue, in the same way in which one responds to military assaults of any kind. If one does not mind too much relinquishing what the attacker wants, you give it to them. If you do mind, then you have to defend yourself against the attacks, to the best extent possible, until such time as the attackers are gone or have lost the will to fight and attack.

As far as our current preoccupation with jihadist terrorism, I don't think there is much of a mystery about what the jihadists want. They believe that there is an authentic Muslim community which ought to be in control of lands historically identified as Muslim lands. They believe Western and Western-backed non-Muslim countries and peoples presently play far too large a political, military and cultural role in those territories, and they want to give those countries and peoples the boot and restore said territories to authentic Muslim control.

So we have too choices: we can either intentionally reduce our activity in Muslim territories to a level that the jihadists would find acceptable - the role of occasional and not very influential guests - or we can choose not to reduce our activity in those territories in any very substantial way, and to fight and defend ourselves against jihadist terrorism forever, or until the jihadists give up and lose the spirit for the fight.

The good news is that the actual level of terrorist threat is not nearly so large as it is sometimes portrayed as being. Defending ourselves against terrorism consists mainly in using a combination of intelligence, covert activity and ordinary policing techniques to identify and thwart terrorist plots and networks, with the understanding that occasionally we will fail, but hopefully succeed much more often.

If the American people in their wisdom decide it is important to remain in the business of bankrolling and supporting West-friendly Middle East governments and clients, maintaining Middle East military bases, influencing Middle East political decisions, funding and supporting Middle East political movements, and sending over religious and secular missionaries and NGOs to convert the natives to some form of Western value system, then we have to understand that there are going to remain a number of people in the region who feel compelled to resist some or all of these activities, and are going to be willing to use violence against us as part of that resistance. Terrorism, then, is just part of the cost of doing business in the Middle East.

Davai,

So, didn't we figured out what's terrorism and what's insurgency?

Terrorism (NCTC):
Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.

Insurgency (dictionary): An organized rebellion aimed at overthrowing a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict

Terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan is at the level noted in my post, which (1) is over half the world total and (2) was caused by US military aggression (according to Krueger's definition of causality).

There is little or no "insurgency" in either country. Mostly there is a resistance to occupation forces as well as the terrorism (violence against noncombatants) which has been noted. While the media commonly calls the resistance to US military occupation an "insurgency" this is a corruption of terms.

If I can point to an error, I don’t need to be a designated peer reviewer and an author would be a welcome such input. It’s obvious.

The question remains is how much to trust the opinion of someone who never quite trust his own opinions well enough to subject them to criticism. I am really impressed how intensely you are reacting to the challenge to your only being a critic; perhaps it goes to some of your fears.

It is said "Those who can -- do. Those who can't -- criticize." I find that a bit unfair, because there can be superb teachers and coaches that may not be able to do what their proteges do, but, through constructive criticism, help people do their best. It's more the exception than the rule that Hall of Fame coaches were stars on the playing field.

When I lead a team, I will look best if I help those working with me to look their best. Very few endeavors are improved by constant negativity.

It is instructive to look at a tray of live crabs, from which it would appear they can escape. This does not happen, because when one starts to get out, another pulls it down, for daring to be better than the norm.

Davai constantly reassures me that Diana Moon Glampers is his shining star.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

The question remains is how much to trust the OPINION of someone who never quite trust his own opinions well enough to subject them to criticism. I
Your sentence makes no sense. You meant to say:
The question remains is how much to trust the CRITICISM of someone who never quite trust his own opinions well enough to subject them to criticism. I
Now the answer is obvious.

Other than I should have typed "trusts" rather than the second "trust", I meant exactly what I said. If the second answer is obvious to you, that is merely because you changed my words to fit your preconceptions of what you would have liked me to have meant.

Hint: Criticism is a subset of opinion.


--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Never mind

Don't confuse the lack of a rigid hierarchy as meaning 'leaderless.' Leadership research has shown that in every group of three or more people with a task to perform a leader emerges. Primates are pack animals, and someone always takes a leadership position.

They do not act in close coordination with each other as armies routinely do. That is why the statement that they are 'leaderless' arises. The most effective way for one army to render another army combat ineffective is to remove its leadership or disrupt its chain of command. Suddenly the troops are undirected and unsupported and can be picked off by larger coordinated forces relatively easily. The so-called leaderless terrorist cells (like the French Resistance) protects itself from this tactic by eliminating the direct chain of command and making each cell as self-sufficient as possible.

The so-called leaderless terrorist cells have internal leadership, and they are provided with material and financial support as well as training from outside agencies. Food and shelter is obtained from the civilian economy rather than from formal supply organizations. They are also provided with Intelligence from outside agencies, but they also obtain a lot of Intelligence from the civilians they live among. Part of their training is to identify and choose targets. They can generally acquire some weapons on their own, but the more sophisticate weapons like current EIDs are either supplied from th outside agency, purchased from criminal organizations, stolen from police or local military, or even made on site by specialists with specialized training.

Such groups are not under direct, immediate control of some central headquarters, but they have a common culture, common goals, common forms of support and indirect forms of coordination such as the Internet. The umbrella organization that formed and supports them can - with time - also restrain them.

Such groups are not immediately responsive to orders from some higher headquarters, but they can be separated from their very close association with the civilians who support them. Their umbrella agency can cut them off, and the opponents can take actions to break the connections between the insurgents and the local population. This latter action not generally a part of military capability. In the case of the U.S. it is generally directed out of the State Department with extensive use of civilian NGO's.

That is why civilians working in NGO's have been targeted by the Iraqi and Afghanistan insurgents. When the NGO functions are effective, the terrorist groups lose their support among the populace and become a lot more vulnerable.

Hamas is not powerless to control the amount of violence. Groups like Hamas can be induced to protect those NGO's as one action if they want to stop the violence. They can also stop the flow of ammunition to the groups, and cut off the funds they use to pay for support from the civilian economy.

The terrorist groups are then either forced to stop the violence (after running out of ammunition and food) or they are reduced to being simply bandits feeding off the population they previously claimed to be fighting for. Someone will sooner or later tire of this and give them up to the counter insurgents. [This doesn't always work in the modern world. FARC and AUM in Colombia allied with the drug cartels, providing them protection from the government as the rebels continued fighting. The warlords in Afghanistan are similarly supporting their fighting with the drug trade. Fatah under Arafat had huge international investments that kept them operating before they took the government of Palestine.] But the point is, the so-called 'leaderless groups' while quite independent of direct command, are not beyond control by those who sent them out.

As to the motivations of individual terrorists - the problem is not that they are unknowable. The reason they appear unknowable is that our propaganda demonizes them and assumes that they act from some unknowable 'Evil' personal characteristics.

Who cares what motivates a Orc? They are simply evil. But do parent Orcs love baby Orcs? (Is there a novel in that?)

Why individual terrorists act as they do is quite knowable if you just ask them, and develop a situation of trust. That's not a job for the inherently impatient, however. It's a question for a profiler.

Generally it is not to the advantage of a politician who got his position by promising to deal with 'terrorists' be observed 'wasting his time speaking with such evil people.' That's probably one basis for Bush's refusal to negotiate with Iranians and Syrians until after they have agreed to give up the behavior that causes the conflict. It's much easier just to shoot or nuke he enemy, as Dick Cheny wants to do. Problem solved - until their children grow up angry, unfed and uneducated, perfect cannon-fodder for some intelligent insurgents.

Learning what causes terrorists to act is not unknowable. The information is available. There are just a lot of real barriers to trying to find out.

Find out why the Jewish militias (the Haganah, Etzel and Lehi) decided to form a unified Jewish resistance movement against the British prior to 1948. That information is available, and directly addresses the question.

Terrorism is violence against noncombatants by subnational groups. So the following is not terrorism, by definition.

"That road outside of Nasiriyah—when we drove through there on March 25th or so, I saw all these women and children shot on the road by Americans. . . .They were shot by helicopters and LAVs, light armored vehicles. They were shot in vehicles and they were shot in buses, because it’s true that it was justified in the sense that there were some civilian buses that had Fedayeen fighters in them. Instances like that. You hear those explanations but when you see a little girl in pretty clothes that someone dressed her in, and she’s smushed on the road with her legs cut off, you don’t think, well you know there were Fedayeen near by and this is collateral damage."
http://www.godspy.com/reviews/Into-Iraq-With-Generation-Kill-An-Interview-with-Evan-Wright-by-Angelo-Matera.cfm

It would have been terrorism if these women and children had been shot by people in subnational groups but since these noncombatants were killed by people in a national group it is not terrorism, it is collateral damage in the "war on terrorism".

We are looking for the causes of terrorism and we are NOT looking for the causes of collateral damage because there is no war on collateral damage. If we WERE looking for the causes of collateral damage we would have to look at factors like recruitment techniques, indoctrination about how Iraq is revenge for 9/11, training in killing 'ragheads' and stuff like that. But we don't care about the causes of collateral damage or its effects, not only on the victims but on many of the perpetrators who face a lifetime of horrible nightmares over what the US government has coerced them to do. Hey, stuff happens.

Except that I think that group dynamics are at least as important in what causes terrorism as individual predispositions, I think you and I are saying much the same thing.

I wish that people would be more careful about what is called terrorism, though. The bush administration appears to have staked its existence and legacy on fighting some existential war against someone they call 'terrorists.' So they take every possible violent action anywhere and call it terrorism. Then they try to pass this off as being caused by a combination of Islam and some nihilistic form of inherent personal 'Evilness' that pervades all the dead bodies labeled terrorists.

I don't consider the insurgency in Iraq to be a form of terrorism, at least not at first. Anyone familiar with Soviet History is aware that the Soviet people generally did not like Stalin and wanted him gone. His brutal response of purging most of the officers of the military in the late 30's was a preemptive attack to avoid a well-deserved coup. But when Hitler attacked the USSR, the Soviet people rose up together to expel the invader. Hitler was not attacking Stalin, he was attacking the Soviet people. Anyone who expected a different reaction when American invaded Iraq was a fool.

And Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld were fools of the highest order. They attacked Iraq for no good reason, creating the ideal conditions to motivate an insurgent reaction, then they demobilized the Army, police and civil service at the time those organizations could have maintained stability and prevented the growth of the insurgency. So the requirement for providing social stability was thrown onto the U.S. military who, if they had sent everyone wearing a uniform or who had previously worn a uniform all at once would never have had enough people on the ground to prevent the growth of an insurgency.

What do you call someone who creates an enemy, motivates them to fight you, then does nothing to stop them from organizing, training and preparing to conduct an insurgency?

They are not just fools. They were and remain blind, stupid, self-destructive fools. [I know, I know, we all know this - but this was such an absolutely stupid enterprise that people are going to be repeating what I just wrote in wonder for a century or more. Sometimes I think that the conservative movement is an organization designed purposely to create deranged fools.]

Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld created the perfect cockpit for an insurgency with the inadequately planned and supplied invasion and occupation of Iraq, and out of it grew a cancer of insurgency. That cancer has now spread into Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Individual cancer cells are not a problem the body can't deal with. It is when they group together and replicate that they become a problem.

The individual terrorists are, separately, no worse then bandits always have been since time immemorial. These individuals, however, carry the meme for creating terrorist organizations that replicate more terrorists. There are specific techniques, attitudes, forms of organization, and ways of dealing with the local populations which are unique to terrorists and are a result of terrorist training and experience. The spread of these terrorism memes is a problem in group dynamics rather than individual psychology.

Groups learn, just like individuals. These terrorist groups have developed over time into very efficient carriers and transmitters for the terrorism meme. Unfortunately, once such groups have developed, preventing their spread is a lot more difficult than keeping them from learning how to be efficient terrorists would have been.

One thing that groups of cancer cells do to exist and grow is to tap into the blood system and attract blood vessels to feed themselves. Disrupting that process is expected to be a way to kill cancer. If an analogous way of disrupting the support of terrorists groups can be found, that may be useful. [Data mining might produce some insights.]

But I do suggest that many possible solutions to terrorism will come out of group dynamics. That runs counter to the American idealization of the lone individual, I know, but it still is something to consider. Every individual is the product of at least one group, and usually many groups.

I hope you are not mistaking Sacco and Vanzetti for terrorists. They were lynched by the state as Italians and Anarchists who were accused of having robbed and murdered two payroll clerks.

Even if they had been guilty, and the trial transcript does not show that they were, a payroll robbery gone bad is not usually terrorism.

One thing that I suspect is that the rise of the right wing and the fundamentalist Churches is associated with the long-term decline of America from its high point immediately after WW II. Let me explain.

The stalemate in Korea was the beginning. Then the long, fruitless war in Vietnam which we lost followed, and accompanied sexual freedom (the pill), the Civil Rights movement, Rock-and-roll replaced 'good' music, and the rejection of American values that the Hippies represented. I was sent to Germany in 1967, and when I returned in 1970 I literally had culture shock. At the same time, foreign cars began to be sold in America, and after about twenty or so years, Japanese cars dominated many categories of auto sales. Nixon's resignation didn't help bolster American pride, nor did Carter's abandonment of the Panama Canal. Then OPEC took control of international oil supplies and really twisted America's tail. So did the Iranian students when the took the Embassy in Tehran and held the hostages until Carter was defeated and replaced.

American wages have not significantly increased since 1970. Stagflation blighted both Ford and Carter's terms, followed by the bad recession caused by the fed chief Paul Volker who Carter appointed in 1979 to stop inflation. (it worked. Reagan got the credit.)

Somewhere in that time the U.S. dropped from being a creditor nation to a debtor nation, but at least the dollar was still the international reserve currency. (That's what the OPEC leaders were questioning a week or so ago. How much longer will they permit the dollar to be the international reserve currency?)

Of all the positions of superiority the U.S. had coming out of WW II, economic, social and military, the only one remaining today is still having the only military force in the world capable of fighting anywhere in the world, and Bush/Rumsfeld have done their best to destroy that.

A lot of the decline has been only a comparative decline, as our trading partners recovered from WW II and developing nations like South Korea and Singapore caught up. But it sure looks like a decline of America.

The last thirty years of this decline has also seen the growth of the conservative movement and evangelical Christianity as it moved into media, mega-churches, and politics. Somehow I can't help but think the two trends are related.

I agree with Alan:

I would avoid using the word terrorism because it is vague and means different things to different people.

Would you agree that a certain subset of tactics in asymmetric warfare may be grouped as terrorism?
Given my position that the term 'terrorism' is a pejoriative that is used primarily to foreclose any options for dealing with someone labeled a terrorist other than death or imprisonment, I don't think I would consider the term useful for anything except propaganda.

A group of tactics within the realm of asymmetric warfare that might be labeled 'terrorism' would be analogous to the tactics and weapons considered war crimes under the laws of war.

What is the appropriate action to the use of either term? Call the tactics 'terrorism' and you demonize your enemy so that you don't have to deal with him or the reasons he has adopted those tactics.

Call them 'war crimes', and you are setting up a situation that if someone uses those tactics, they become criminals, not combatants. Criminals are subject to known punishments. There is still the option to deal with them in other ways and try to stop the combat.

I don't see any value in the term 'asymmetric conflict resolution.' Asymmetric warfare is a set of techniques and tactics used between by combatant forces of hugely different capability and organization. A weaker force can use insurgent tactics to drive the population into rejecting a much more powerful conventional armed force. But I don't see it as any form of conflict ~resolution~ technique. Instead it is a set of techniques for carrying out the conflict.

Barnett's book "The Pentagon's New Map" has some interesting insights, of which you are correct that the 'Connected Core nations' is quite interesting. As I recall, he argument was that those nations not part of the connected core would have to be policed, and that America as the Superpower was the nation to do the policing. I'm not sure if Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld have left us enough military force outside the Navy to do that now, even if we wanted to.

Between the excessive international debt, the falling dollar, the lack of American industrial production capacity and the destruction of all American ground forces, I really think that if the nations not part of the connected core need policing then there better be some kind of international police force established to do it.

I'd like to see those undeveloped nations become better developed, but the track record of those who claim to understand how to develop underdeveloped nations is far from reassuring. Or to put it more bluntly, ~the so-called experts at the World Bank don't know shit, and neither does anyone else.~

What can be done with Mugabe, for example? What he has done to Zimbabwe only American conservatives could approach in terms of disaster. Zimbabwe, Eastern Congo, Darfur, Somalia (again) and so on, does Barnett have any solution other than American troops? But I guess all those except Darfur are sufficiently far from the 'Connected Core nations' to not be considered a problem, right?

Would you agree that a certain subset of tactics in asymmetric warfare may be grouped as terrorism?
...
Given my position that the term 'terrorism' is a pejoriative that is used primarily to foreclose any options for dealing with someone labeled a terrorist other than death or imprisonment, I don't think I would consider the term useful for anything except propaganda.

I think you're both getting too far into semantics. You're both talking about psychological warfare via collective punishment and collateral civilian deaths and maiming.

Terminology aside, the methods and purpose are equivalent, whether it's a guy wearing a bomb into a pizza parlor, or firing cluster munitions into civilian areas, the end result is much the same: killed and maimed civilians including children.

Call them 'war crimes', and you are setting up a situation that if someone uses those tactics, they become criminals, not combatants.

The concept of "war crimes" is important to limit the use of force to proportional responses and for an outside community to hopefully prevent escalation of localized warfare to be either excessively violent, long, or widespread.

And that concept of policing isn't so much altruism as it's in the global communities self interest to prevent any region from reverting to utter barbarism, as that sinkhole tends to spread and suck in neighbors and then regions and then the globe, both materiality and spiritually.

The mistake hawks make is the presumption that only a Superpower's top-down projection of order through the use of force can solve or mediate these crisis. Sometimes that can work, but other times it's the worst option and may even inflame hostilities.

Making matters worse, the superpower frequently has interests in the region which it exploits in the process, which then sets the stage for future strife. Which is why the use of force should in fact be as multilateral as possible, and avoid any impropriety or short term exploitation of the troubled region.

For example, it's worth noting the genocide in Rwanda was along tribal lines that were established in large part as privileged and less privileged tribes under Belgian colonial rule and the Roman Catholic Church. Belgium's exploitation of Rwanda (and Germany before them) in large part set the stage for the genocide, which makes their inaction and the inaction of others all the more damnable.

Other examples include Saddam Hussein was our Iraq proxy in war against Iran, as was the Shah of Iran our proxy in the region. Supporting Pinochet and others in Latin America has done far more to hurt our influence in the long run.

The more we muck with regional development, with our interests conflicted between resource extraction and spreading democracy, the worse it gets. The more we prop up illegitimate leaders the harder their eventual fall is, and the greater hostility we're ultimately left with in the region.

Which worked swell for Rome, for the most part, because of its complete military supremacy in the era of horse calvary. But as we approach the era of nuclear proliferation, where even a two-bit dictator like Kim Jong Il gets nukes, a world of nuclear armed and incensed Hatfields and McCoys is about the worst possible idea there is.

But recognizing this phenomenon is relatively unhelpful. Dispositions to engage in just about any kind of behavior are spread and heightened by social groups and networks. ...

Well, what follows from this?

Not much.

Exactly. It's about as meaningful as citing oxygen as a contributing factor. Social networking is universal. It's the essence of humanity. The outcome of social networking varies greatly by other environmental conditions, determining whether they're networking Tupperware, or pipe bombs.

Obviously we have to try and disrupt networks of hardened terrorists planning attacks. But the idea we could ever short circuit the general networking of emerging resentment, in literally millions of people incensed at US policies, through TIA, radio broadcasts, leaflets, or such, while continuing to invade Islamic countries and prop up dictators... well it seems incredibly naive and bungled notion of Orwellian thought control. Yosemite Sam as Big Brother.

If I can point to an error

You're just a troll. And like all trolls are just some pathetic dork.

The only factor I can find that they all seem to have in common is a personal, humiliating affront to their dignity and a personal rejection by those more powerful

It's also what the American Revolutionaries had in common in the continued offensiveness of the British Monarchy. Or for that matter what the British Monarchy had in common with the offense they took at the continued influence of the Roman Catholic Church. And so on.

Such righteous indignation, rational or otherwise, is also observable in our primate ancestors when social rules for fairness are deemed to have been breached. There is a famous study of chimps which shows that chimps trained to work for rewards will stop working if they observe a peer receiving higher pay for equal work. A sense of fairness is innate in higher social species. It could be no other way.

Every social structure must have commonly accepted rules of what is acceptable fair exchange. And when those rules are perceived to be breached, and unjust, civilization breaks down and often resorts to violence.

Another common factor is their willingness to kill members of their own group in order to make the "grand gesture". That has to mean something, I just am not sure what...

It's not a "grand gesture" so much as it's naturally emergent behavior. As extreme circumstances crystallize a tribal identity devoted violence, then those who don't fit in are of course likely to be purged by violence, as their chosen means.

For example, it was common for combat units in Vietnam to purge their own of anyone who didn't fit the group or endangered it. And these were mostly drafted city and farm kids, not some strangely unique group of people known for "grand gestures" or violence. Just ordinary people in extreme circumstances.

The Jewish Sicarii Zealots crystallized into one of the earliest examples of organized terrorism under the depraved circumstances of Roman oppression, and were also known for ruthlessness, terror tactics, and purging their own.

Thank you for your deep thoughts.

We are looking for the causes of terrorism and we are NOT looking for the causes of collateral damage because there is no war on collateral damage.
There is nothing to prevent you from looking for the causes of collateral damage.

"The grand gesture" is that of sacrificing everything, including yourself to give proof to a profoundly held belief. It doesn't mean the gesture is good or great, it means it is out of the ordinary sphere of human response.

Mohammad Atta flying a plane into the WTC tower was a "grand gesture", Bogart sending Bergman with her husband in "Casablanca" is a "grand gesture".

I don't think Brosnan's study ever claimed there was an "innate sense of fairness" in capuchin monkeys or chimps. Her study suggests that other primates have an inequity response. There were quite a few instances when the chimps refused to return the tokens and forego any reward. With the capuchin monkeys only the females showed a consistent inequity response. The study also did not include the social context of the inequity response nor did it study the equity response.

I don't believe that suicide bombing or a violent inequity response is a naturally emergent behavior.

I'm not confusing the lack of a rigid hierarchy with leaderless resistance. You're confusing leaderless resistance with a rigid hierarchy. Leaderless resistance by its nature is the small group acting without direction or permission from a hierarchy. We're still addressing terrorism with the same metrics that we used in the 60s and 70s when terrorist groups did use the Marighelli model of a military hierarchy structure. Cutting off the head of that terrorist structure resulted in a dismantling of the terrorist group - now when we attack the leadership the result is more terrorist groups. This is a NEW kind of terrorism, it is not based on the military structure of command levels and control.

There are more than 25 known independent terrorist groups operating in the West Bank/Gaza strip alone,(in Iraq there are more than 100) many of them are self-funded or funded by single wealthy donors. These aren't groups "sent out" by Hamas or the PLO, they are separate entities. They don't "obtain food and shelter" from the civilians, they ARE the civilians - they're not "full time terrorists" and NO, they do not have common goals and common support structures and they have no "umbrella agency".

The Bush administration views this terrorism through the same prism of the 70s model and they think that states and organizations should be able to control these groups and cut off their funding or issue orders for them to cease and desist and it is not going to work that way. One basis for Bush not negotiating with the Iranians/Syrians/bad guys is that on some level this has to be known - whatever control these states have is a drop in the ocean and there is no way we can "win" the war on this kind of terrorism.

No, the cause of terrorism is unknowable, just as the cause of crime is unknowable - there are too many variables and factors to say with any certainty - THIS is the cause.

At least some of the Islamic groups operate by a model that has both similarities and differences from traditional cell systems. I have a sourced summary of cell systems in my article on Clandestine HUMINT operational techniques. This is not meant to address the motivations, but the techniques. If you can point me to some references on the structure of an even less hierarchical class, I'd appreciate it.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Davai, you are truly an intellectual giant, and you contribute so much to this effort to find the truth that I hardly know how to express my everlasting gratitude for your intelligent and wise counsel so I won't.

The FBI definition of terrorism seems to be more encompassing - "the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population or any segment thereof in furtherance of a political or social objective."

S and V was an example, and whether they were guilty of terrorism or not I do not know. I've read two books on the subject and one maintained that they were guilty and one maintained that they were not. Payroll and bank robberies were often a means to acquiring funds for revolutionaries and terrorists.

I don't know if America is in a decline or not - there are as many reasons to think it is, as to think it isn't. Whether it is good or bad to be a creditor nation or a debtor nation depends on the kind of credit, kinds of expansion and kinds of investments made with the credit.

Your wiki entry is about operational techniques of clandestine intelligence gatherers, terrorist groups are not the same thing.

Excellent post. But now permit me to quibble a few points.

I don't think that you can simply dismiss what Howard and I are discussing as just semantics. I think we are discussing the political and administrative use of words as tools to drive both thoughts and the resulting actions. Is it really just semantics to recognize that using an emotionally loaded negative term for certain behavior or to characterize those who practice that behavior limits the response to that behavior to only the extremes? Except to professionals (which our political leaders clearly are not) terrorism is such an emotionally laden negative term.

If you are going to deal with terrorism effectively, then you have to remove emotionally-drive responses from the repetoire of actions.

It appears to me that you are distinguishing terrorism from war as being a case of "psychological warfare via collective punishment and collateral civilian deaths and maiming." Twentieth century warfare, actually starting with the American Civil War, has been a period of total war that did not distinguish between military and civilians. The wars have lasted until both the civilians and the military quit, so destroying the civilian motivation and ability to support the war has been critical in ending it. Terrorism is merely total war between asymmetrically capable combatants who both apply the practices of total war to the combat.

Once such a total war starts, I find little reason to distinguish the tactics of the more powerful using standing armies to do thing like invade refugee camps and kill everyone there or firebombing a city - both attempts to terrorize the population into quitting the fight - and the use of strap-on bombs against students in a school bus which has a similar purpose. Other than the scope of the tragedies, how do you really distinguish between the tactics? "Terrorism" is a natural and anticipated tactical outgrowth of total war, particularly (but not exclusively) between two enemies of greatly mismatched capabilities. I'm with Churchill when he supposedly said "Jaw-Jaw, is better than War-War." It's not terrorism that is the culprit, it is war itself.

I think American political leaders other then Reagan and Bush (both brain damaged) have understood that. Of course, talking is effective only when done from a base of military capability, but that is still not total war.

Totally off topic, but as far as what made Rome successful for as long as it was, I find it interesting that the Empire consisted essentially the beaches of the Mediterranean and the areas that the Romans could build roads to. I'd say that seapower was probably more significant in the creation and maintenance of the Empire than was their use of cavalry. They learned it from the Carthaginians. Rome was supplied with its primary source of food, grain, from the Eastern end of Lake Med, and the Legions generally had access to food and weapons shipped in from the main centers. The Roman road network was designed to supplement the shipping that maintained the Empire. Shipping (with associated roads), literacy among the soldiers, and the training of the Legions (standing armies permit training that levy's never can equal - I don't think BevD recognizes the importance of training to combat effectiveness - nor, I would guess, does she care too much. I certainly respect her views.) were what unified and maintained the Empire. The ability to concentrate large military forces quickly through shipping and the roads, and the shipping in of grain, etc. from outside the battle area permitted concentrating larger armies than their enemies had. The external supplies would permit those larger armies to stay longer and remain effective on the battlefield, long after their enemies had eaten everything within two or three days' ride. That's the REMF in me. War is logistics first and foremost.

Oh for crying out loud. Of course I recognize the importance and effectiveness of training - you don't recognize the importance of human motivation, in fact, you don't even acknowledge it. Of course the Roman legions were well trained, but what motivated them was the promise of some reward and the fear of some punishment - otherwise they would have all walked away, they weren't robots they were human beings. (See Fussell and Marshall)

Terrorism isn't "war" and we are not in a "war against terrorism". It is as silly and nebulous a claim as a "war on drugs" or a "war on poverty". This is exactly why we're in the predicament we are in - this insistence on viewing terrorism and terroristic violence as some kind of cosmic war, a metaphysical struggle between good and evil when what it really is, is a response by groups threatened with modernity and globalism - any senseless act of violence is then seen by both sides as a transcendent symbol of that struggle which in turn elevates and escalates it.

This reminds me of a project in the 60s to regularize knowledge of social revolution, supported by SORO at American U and other groups. I admire attempts to find science in the messiness of politics, but I think we're a millenium or so away from useful formal theory. I think we're not even close to anything beyond anecdotal evidence about terrorism. It hasn't been around in its current from long enough to generalize.

Better to resist the wholly human urge to find patterns, except for graduate-study purposes, and simply learn the stories various political groups tell themselves. How could we find generalities encompassing "I have but one life to give" and Mohammed Atta, and including the Weathermen, Red Brigades, IRA, Basques, Nihilists, anarchists, survivalists, Tamils, Viet Cong, Chechens, Irgun, Hezbollah, SOE, OSS, CIA, KGB, and so on?

I am afraid that, like the proposed Commission to study homegrown terrorism, the results will simply be Rorschach blots suitable for demonizing the outcasts du jour.

There is a specific section about the operational use of cell-based organization, which have been used for both intelligence collection and for unconventional/guerrilla warfare. In that section, see the "non-Western" organization of what many believe to be the way in which al-Qaeda and other groups handle their operational cells, which, at a certain point, cut their connection to support and command organization. That increases security for the final operation.

While the article is called "HUMINT", that is a term of art for covert and clandestine organizations; "counterintelligence" is often a term of art for detecting and defeating covert and clandestine organization for any purpose, be it direct action, unconventional warfare, special reconnaissance, or espionage.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

I also don't know if S and V were guilty of robbery and murder. They were essentially convicted of murder by a biased judge who did not permit a trial. The transcript shows that. They were convicted before the trial started because they were Italian, working class and avowed Anarchists. I have never seen anything but speculation (not based on convincing evidence that was not apparently planted by police) that they were either guilty or connected to terrorism in any way.

Like you, I do not know if America is in decline. I frankly doubt it. What is clear is that it is rapidly changing, and if you are predisposed to look at only the negative sides of the change, then the picture of decline is obvious. That's what I was trying to present.

I will say that to the extent that conditions in America do represent decline, it is primarily because of conservative political policies that prevent government tracking and amelioration of social problems caused by the changes, together with in the increase in population density.

But of course, it is obvious to right-minded folk that all bad things are caused either by criminals, conservatives or the Devil, and since Bush 43 was appointed, I no longer feel I can distinguish between the three. :-}

But of course, it is obvious to right-minded folk that all bad things are caused either by criminals, conservatives or the Devil, and since Bush 43 was appointed, I no longer feel I can distinguish between the three. :-}'
Only lefties, however, are in their right brains.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

While I'm a bred-in-the-bone skeptic (too?), I do think there may be some benefit in going with what we do have -- as incomplete as our understanding may be. Is Krueger doing a service in trying to tease out the conditions which lead the individual terrorist to be willing to sacrifice himself for the group's cause?

For example, if we can agree (if we conclude) that terrorists act almost only when members of and supported by small cultic/clique-ish groups, might we then decide to put greater restrictions on the freedom of assembly -- a balancing of security against civil rights which would be dependent upon Krueger's and other's findings in respect to group dynamics?

As a grad student in management I tried hard to study motivation, but it is unmeasurable directly. You can measure the input to the individual, and you can measure what they do, but motive? That's inferred, never directly measured. I got disgusted at the levels of individual psychology and moved on to organization theory. This was before PET scans. Who knows what can be measured today, but I'll be that motive, like a persons will to accomplish something, remains unmeasurable directly.

That's probably why you feel that I don't recognize motivation. I do, but as far as I can tell it is a combination of the factors that go into character (both nature and nurture), the specific situation the individual is in, and the various forms of manipulation of the individual that the managers of organizations orchestrate. I still see no way to manage motivation. I want something that will somewhat reliably change behavior.

I don't consider war to be an individual pastime. It is primarily something done by organizations of people, done between organizations, and the causes are primarily organizational. If the same actions were conducted by purely self-motivated individuals they would be merely criminal or insane. Then they become problems for police, profilers and psychiatrists.

So, yeah. I discount individual motivation. What counts is the way organizations locate and select appropriately motivated individuals and then how they train and socialize them. The manageable behavior is what the organization does, and that's where changes will occur.

While I enjoy the show "Criminal Minds," it has been my experience that when such individually motivated persons are attracted to the military they are rejected. They are too unreliable to be useful. Zarkawi and Mafia Don Gotti may have been individually motivated killers, but they both were leaders of organizations and selected individuals for reliability before they considered an individual motivation to kill or maim. The limitation in selection is someone who cannot be motivated to kill or maim if directed by the organization. Such people are unfortunately rare, especially when young.

Reliability in achieving organization goals is more important than the individual motivation to be terrorists or soldier. You can socialize almost anyone to be a soldier or terrorist, but that socialization is a group project.

So it's not that I don't acknowledge individual motivation - it's just that I don't see it as especially relevant to fighting wars or terrorists - or more important, stopping such activities. Perhaps I'm biased, but I see the organizational factors as the key to both the problems and to their solution. I really don't see how a focus on individual motivation without consideration of the group selection and socialization provides any effective handle for changing the situation.

If that frustrates you, I'm sorry. Your (in my opinion) useless focus on individual motivation by itself frustrates me also. I can see using individual motivation as a selection tool in determining who joins the organization and what they do, but I don't see how a focus on that motivation resolves what to me is clearly a problem of organizations.

I very much agree with you that the war on terrorism and the war on drugs are stupid rhetorical devices used by politicians to gin up support, primarily for doing mostly counterproductive stuff that our nation shouldn't be doing in the first place. The alleged targets are not real and cannot be turned into objectives to be achieved by planned actions. Bush and crew are trying to define a so-called "war" for people who do not understand what is involved in a war, so that those people will elect and reelect Republicans. The GWOT is not a real war. It is a rhetorical war designed to drive elections here in the U.S., just as the war on drugs was and is.

But I am certain that the Jihadists see what they are doing as a war against America and the West. Their targets are real live people in body armor carrying weapons and driving machine-gun mounter HumVees, and the organizations that placed them there and support them. The Jihadists' goal to drive those people out of the Middle East, much as the Mujahedin drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan. Their war is not a rhetorical device designed to sway elections. It has specific, achievable objectives.

I hope you recognize that what I have seen you write makes me think well of you as a person. I just disagree with you as to what I think is likely to lead to a solution to the combat in the Middle East. As we used to say when trying to plan research - our unit of focus is different. Yours is the individual and mine is the group. Groups don't have motives. They have leaders with goals. The only individual motives that matter within the group are those of the leaders.

I can live with "war crime", but there are war crimes that don't necessarily fall into the category of The Pejorative That Must Not Be Said. The whole area of war crimes is legally messy, given the Nuremberg (all 14, not just the most familiar trial of the Major War Criminals) and Tokyo tribunals were not established by treaty, and we have a patchwork of war conduct treaties with very mixed patterns of ratification. Ironically, "planning to wage aggressive war" had been outlawed before WWII, in the Kellogg-Briand accord no one remembers.

Part of the problem is that the existing treaties are very much oriented to nation-states. To cover some of the non-national actors, we may have to look at the piracy and law of the sea treaty, with their concepts of jus cogens and hostis humani generis. The former creates a standard of conduct for nations generally -- I wonder if the ICC treaty refers to it? The latter refers to "enemies of mankind", but the usage is for pirates and slavers in international waters.

Barnett-style experience

Barnett, you will remember, has two forces: Leviathan, which is the first-world "hyperwar" force for taking down conventional militaries, which is likely to be single nation or at least alliance such as NATO, for the practical reasons of interoperability and common doctrine. His second component, System administrator, is the peace enforcement and nation building force, which is expected to be multinational.

Without reference to the appropriateness of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the conventional forces did the Leviathan mission fairly well. The problem is that they were then asked to be System Administrator, which requires a different mindset, organization, and staffing. Historically, the Iraq fiasco lacked the occupation contingency planning and peace enforcers such as the WWII organizations to which I link.

The best example of a Barnett-style operation so far, I believe, was in Sierra Leone, where a British marine commando unit, from an amphibious group, took down the worst of the gangs as Leviathan, and then started backing out as the ECOMOG security and nation-building group from ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, moved in. Once ECOMOG (mostly Nigerians, but truly multinational, the British sailed away).

Where has development worked?

I'm not trying to be exhaustive, but there are a few turnaround states in Africa after debt relief. Uganda is the one with which I'm most familiar, and, while it's no paradise, it's improved drastically in a wide range of metrics from inflation rate to the incidence of new HIV cases. I suspect the first step is not to look so much at the failures and seemingly overwhelming challenges, but to look at the successes both to understand what is possible, and how it was done. Even with the civil/Eritrean war, Ethiopia has done some very smart infrastructure development, which also can easily connect into the quasi-autonomous South Sudan. The Ethiopians expanded their power grid, but simultaneously used new Wireless Local Loop technology on the power pylons to provide easy hookup to a decent communications network. There is, incidentally, at least one entepreneur in South Sudan who has done an amazing job in putting together what loosely could be called "business centers", using old cellular gear that had been scrapped, and not trying more than was economical.

The African problems

I've posted extensively and specifically on Darfur, but could reopen it again. The first problem in dealing with Darfur starts with looking seriously at a transportation map, and coming up with a way to get the POL needed for any serious intervention into it. Right now, they have one airport that takes C-130s that have to carry round-trip fuel, and a World Food Programme convoy about every 2 weeks.

I'm less familiar with the current situation in the other countries, but I've been impressed with (I will have to find his name) the South Sudan development. The degree of autonomy of the South, which has a referendum about staying part of Sudan in 2011, is not well realized in most of the world. What appears to be key is to work on an "oil spot" sort of approach to economic development, and bootstrap.

Do remember that the confirmed oil is in South Sudan, but, at present, the only pipeline and export terminal are in the North. There is a real possibility of railroads from the South into Kenya, where there are pipelines and refineries, although in need of improvement. Still, Kenya muddles along and could become a much more viable state. With Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, and even Ethiopia, there is, if you will, the start of a connected "subcore" in East Africa. Djibouti is also positioning itself as a telecommunications and transportation hub.

No, I don't have an answer to Mugabe, but I'm not sure, tugs on the heartstrings being ignored, that he and Darfur are the right questions. With Africa, it may be much more of a question of strengthening some of the better-developing nations with many problems, with a goal of a takeoff like the "Tigers" of southeast Asia, and using them as a base for improving their failed-state neighbors.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Yike!

You're a REAL expert. I only play one on the Internet. I hope that if I post a real howler you will be gentle in your corrections! :-}

I wondered why I seemed to be learning so much from what you posted.

As I said, I admire the scholarly intent, but worry about the political use. In your example, perhaps we should prohibit meetings of smaller than a certain number.

No, it's a waste of time at the policy level, if one takes an economic view, because the cost to economy is mainly the inhibiting effects of security clampdown. It's a waste of time at the strict saving-lives level, since terror-related deaths are almost below noise level statistically. It's a waste of time regarding national security, since the threat to nation is our own government becoming a security state.

The SORO (Special Operations Research Office) project achieved nada. The CIA reversed a few social revolutions by buying opposition and installing a dictatorship. So much for science of revolution. A science of terrorism is even more vague. But history is inherently just stories, and I think we should collect as many stories as possible. We should know the truth, but we should not imagine we can predict human behavior beyond the obvious, which we have ignored.

Call 'em as I see 'em.

Your one liner trolls don't merit "deep thoughts" any more than a turd on the sidewalk.

All you're discussing is martyrdom, which isn't exactly a new concept. It's even a pre-human act which is selected for by evolution for the survival of the group. Situations continually arise where an individual sacrifice will yield greater results for the group. Situations where one life sacrificed may save many. and the group which embodies that characteristic, will then be more fit to survive, and it will be selected for. The basis of all morality is evolved empathy and fairness in our ancestors.

In our own military, many of the top medals are awarded posthumously. In chimps and other social animals frequently members of the group will die for the defense of the group against predators and other threats. This behavior is common in nature. It's basically the defense of one's shared DNA with the group.

Martyrdom is just an extreme example of empathy and individual sacrifice for the good of the group, and it is most certainly a naturally emergent behavior which has been selected for through evolution.

The trait is further modulated by the utility of the sacrifice. If for example a group is benefitted due to sacrifice greater than the loss of the individual, those traits will be selected for. If on the other hand a sacrifice is meaningless, such as blood sacrifices to non-existent gods to improve the weather or such, then those groups will be selected against.

[not an] "innate sense of fairness" [but instead] inequity response.

You're just playing semantic games now. I never claimed it was 100% consistent. No animal or human behavior is. But it is still a naturally emerging behavior which is selected for because it has value to the survival of the group.

For one example, food sharing, and particularly meat sharing, is common among social animals, to allow them to more efficiently distribute food than if each individual merely took what it could grab. By establishing a mechanism for distribution, which also takes into account status and effort exerted for the prize, is a basic sense of accounting, of fairness, while also allowing for group cooperation to maximize the potential positive outcomes for the group over time. It makes possible collective action with collective rewards, such as coordinated hunting, higher intelligence, language, etc.

Then there is the idea of empathy and community welfare at the direct expense of the individual. For example, many experiments have shown that chimps will share food with other chimps, and respond to begging, even when physically separated and direct coercion is prevented. There are many other examples of chimps demonstrating a deep sense of empathy and communal welfare and willingness to sacrifice personal gain for the good of the group.

That may seem irrational if one presumes an individual should only consider it's own personal welfare. That's terribly simplistic however. If for example a chimp acts out an instinct to sacrifice for the group, and dies, it is personally disadvantaging it's DNA. However, if all members of the group share that potential, as plasticity of behavior is high while mutation of genes are fairly low, and if the sacrifice does in fact increase the fitness of the group, then DNA very similar to the sacrificial member will be passed to the next generation and favored, so that the next time a sacrificial situation arises, the group will continue to have the plasticity of behavior to select some number of sacrifices. Even better, it's self regulating, i.e. the individual with the highest sense of self sacrifice, perhaps even excessive, is less likely to pass on genes directly, so what's effectively optimized in the group potential for a plasticity of behavior, not necessarily the individual mutation.


****

If you take the idea of martyrdom, i.e. individual sacrifice for the greater good, which is prevalent in all human societies, and plenty of other social species, and especially in military context; and then you add empathy for one's own group and their suffering, and add to that a sense of injustice or combativenesses against a perceived evil, what you have is a soldier, or firefighter, or whatever, willing to personally sacrifice for the greater good to achieve some goal against an evil.

It can be as complex and intellectual as a calculated risk for a specific result such as a firefighter risking death to save children in the hope others would do the same for his children, as emotional and poetic as Bogey making the "grand gesture" in Casablanca, or as instinctual as the guard dog that willingly fights to the death to protect it's charge as it's training has exploited its pack instinct.

It's a totally naturally emergent behavior which natural evolution has selected for in many ways. And given predictable circumstances, it will emerge in a larger percentage of the populace.

I agree with you. Thank you again for your deep thoughts.

Don, you can express your everlasting gratitude by stopping to whine about somebody preventing to discuss important for you issues.

This makes no sense, kosmik. The "grand gesture" is a descriptive phrase and you are confusing it with martyrdom and martyrdom isn't "sacrifice for the greater good." There is no evidence whatsoever for the notion that self-sacrifice is "pre -human."

The paragraph on dna, well, I don't know what to say to that.

Chimps and monkeys do not have "an innate sense of fairness" that is a human moral judgement on equity and nonequity responses in primate species. That is anthropomorphic, we don't know if animals make moral, ethical or emotional judgements so to claim that they have an innate sense of fairness is to assign them the ability to make decisions based on the same values systems as humans have.

"Sacrifice for the greater good" is not a "naturally emergent behavior" if it was, we'd all be dead. Co-operation and interdependence are naturally emergent behaviors as a result of naturally emergent structures.

Despite what you think, this isn't about "semantics" - it's about using the correct terminology in order to describe something as complicated as human behavior.

You see no way to manage motivation? What do you suppose a paycheck does? It manages motivation.

As to war as an "individual pastime" I never claimed any such thing nor would I - war is a collective enterprise. That is why individuals have to be motivated to act as a group and the way the army does that is to break down the individual by removing him from his customary support group and transferring that allegiance to another group. By making the individual soldier responsible for the safety and survival of the group, the army is motivating him through guilt. Training is a tool, it is not a motivating factor. I can train you to drive a cab, but without intrinsic and extrinsic rewards I cannot make him get up in the morning and drive the cab.

What do you think organizations and corporations do? They offer intrinsic rewards such as promotions and titles, and extrinsic rewards such as paychecks and bonuses. GM doesn't train rivetheads and turn them loose, they pay them, offer them perks such as a choice in shifts and medical benefits and so forth to motivate them.

The jails in Britain were bursting with soldiers on the eve of D-Day - obviously for some people NO reward, and NO training was enough for them to risk dying, but for most of the soldiers their loyalty to their battle buddies and their unit was the motivating factor and that was because the army was able to induce enough guilt in them to overcome their fear of dying just enough to get them out of the landing craft.

Of course the army tries to screen out the sociopaths, lone wolves, and the narcissists - they are unable to motivate them to act in concert with the unit. That is exactly my point.

Groups certainly do have motives both individually and collectively. No matter how charismatic a leader is, without motivation the group will not cohere as a unit. If the only goals and motivation that mattered was the leader, he wouldn't be a leader for very long - as a group the relationship must be reciprocal (even if it is just praise and a sharing of credit) - that's what separates a good boss from a great boss and a good general from a great general.

Yes, our focus is different - I am acknowledging the fact that terrorism is no longer a hierarchy of command operating under a militant structure of highly organized persons in pursuit of a common goal. It is those individuals or those acting in small independent groups that are the terrorists now.

These are not your father's terrorists.

Security, not the "cost to the economy" is the issue. We'll spend what we have to.

But if we were to conclude that membership in a "gang" is a necessary condition in making a terrorist, would the money be better spent surveilling and infiltrating those fundamentalist mosques in European Islamistan which have the apparent propensity of nurturing incipient terrorist gangs and providing them a safe harbor in which to organize?

If Islamic terrorism should ever become homegrown in America, should we adopt the methods used against the Panthers?

Howard, while groups like Al Qaeda have structure, there are over a known 100 groups acting in Iraq alone which can consist or 2 or 5 or 8 people without a structure or organized command. There are at least 23 known groups in the West Bank/Gaza area which act as collectives rather than organizations with a command structure.

You and Rick seem unable to grasp that this kind of terrorism has new metrics and parameters. (No offense, but you do.) The old methods of infiltration, intelligence gathering and attacking the command structure from the top down will no longer work. Killing the leader and expecting the terrorism to stop is an exercise in futility - it is like the Pillsbury Doughboy, if you push him one place, he's going to pop out somewhere else.

Let's see. I don't recall being motivated by 'guilt', and I really can't figure out where you get that.

Beyond that, you said somewhere else that determining each individual's motivation was something that was impossible to know. Then in this latest comment you describe pretty much the same organization that I was describing - though you seem to be working hard to make it sound like a negative experience, though I might be reading that into what you said.

The military does have one distinct difference from working on the assembly line or driving a cab. The military is what sociologists call a 'total organization.' You are part of the organization 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. It has a culture to which you adapt, willingly or not. Within that culture there are expectations for what you will do and what you won't do.

The hierarchy is there, but it is primarily for a few commands that have to be given in order to respond to unexpected changes.Mostly the motivation is to succeed and to fit in with the culture. This is true both within terror cells and in regular military organizations. But the people in those organization are like everyone else. EVERYONE acts to do things that get approval and to avoid things that get you dressed down, and the peer group is more important than the leaders.

But is seems to me that since no one can figure out how each separate person is motivated, the way to prevent terrorist actions and warlike conflict has to be by using organizational methods of control and motivation. That's how you deal with people inside an organization.

Aren't we saying about the same thing?

Now to address 'group' motivation. If a group has a group motivation, where does it reside? The top managers in every group have a personal motivation for what they want the group to do, and it is translated into goals and objectives that are communicated to others lower in the organization.

Goals can be shared, but motivations are personal. The shared organization goals, together with the resources needed to accomplish each worker's contribution to the goals, are what we call a strategy. There is a chain of strategies as you move down into the organization. The Company may have a goal to sell a product, or to accomplish certain goals. In a company the sales division has a sales strategy designed to work with the production strategy, and the personnel strategy in order to accomplish the overall corporate strategy. Military and covert organizations have a similar distribution of strategies from the overall one, down to that of each department. Individuals at each level are personally motivated to trade their efforts for whatever they are getting back from the organization.

Individuals each have their own personal motivations to belong to the group, and for most groups their personal motivations have to permit them to do what the top leaders direct them to do, but mostly individuals in a group work for some form of side-payment rather than to achieve the goals of the overall organization. It's nice if the organization's overall goals match those of the workers, but that is unnecessary.

Individuals can work for shared goals, but the motivators for each person is as individual has he is.

eh, well think it over for a while. Maybe it'll click for you.

"Sacrifice for the greater good" is not a "naturally emergent behavior" if it was, we'd all be dead.

Of course it is. But people are variable. Some are more or less violent, more or less intellectual, more or less empathetic, etc. All are naturally emergent behaviors for which evolution has selected. That doesn't mean they're equal in all people. How silly.

Different people have different environmental thresholds to become violent, empathetic, or whatever. The triggers are fairly predictable, as are the levels at which you'll start seeing behaviors trigger, on an aggregate basis given a large enough group.

Sure, the FBI does undercover and so do city police depts.

But homegrown jihadism is less likely here than in Europe, simply because we do include Muslims in American society. A deft touch would be preferable to the heavy hand of Hoover.

Right - people are variable. That's why your claim doesn't hold up. I think you've got it.

You probably don't remember guilt as a motivation. You weren't in combat.

Yes, the motivation is to fit in with the organization - that is my point.

Right, everyone does things to get approval or avoid being dressed down and the group is more important than the leader. That is motivation. That is what I said.

Right, the company has a goal. The company isn't a person, the company is an entity - a group. Correct, individuals are motivated in different ways. Again, that is my point. We can't know how and why individuals are motivated, which is what I said - it is unknowable.

The company's goal is to make money. Unfortunately, in company's where the goal isn't shared, you have sales depts promising product that manufacturing doesn't have, or the marketing dept. isn't listening to the sales dept. or sales isn't co-operating with operations - those are bad companies with bad leadership - top management has failed to motivate the group as a whole and it is every man for himself. Yes, it is necessary to match the company's goal with the worker's goal. That's the difference between successful companies and unsuccessful companies.

As I have pointed out before, this is a new kind of terrorism, which isn't structured as a military organization, they don't have common goals or similar structures of command and we can't know what motivates them - that is exactly why the old paradigm no longer works.

Are you very sure Rick has not been in combat? Why? He's made a number of references, from time to time, suggesting that he spent a good deal of time in uniform. They may have been subtle things, such as references to particular military schools, or certain phrasings and terminology.

Also, I would hesitate to say we cannot understand anything about the motivation or command structures of "new kinds of terrorists". You made me wonder when you dismissed, as intelligence gathering, an article of mine that had very specific descriptions of a reasonable understanding of the way in which al-Qaeda exerts, or does not exert, positive control over operational cells. In the organization charts I drew, there were cells whose links had curving dotted lines across their connection. It appears that at some point in the operation, which is a quite different paradigm than has been used by other groups, that the operational cells are released to decide the final details of their mission without headquarters approval.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Thanks for the discussion. I have appreciated your patience with me. There seems to be no where else to take it. I doubt that we will ever agree, but I think I have a better understanding of what you are saying, and frankly I know I have a better understanding of what I am saying.

She's correct. I have never been in combat. I wanted to, but my now ex-wife threatened to divorce me if I didn't request out of the Army when I got my orders for 'Nam. The Personnel warrant assured me that I could submit the request and that they were all being turned down, so I stupidly did so. I delayed the inevitable divorce by nine years.

Neither the warrant officer nor I realized that Nixon had already started the draw-down by early '70. My request to get out was one of the first they approved. I remained in the Reserves another 17 years, conducting field training exercises and map exercises for units (battalion, division,Corps, Corps Support Command and Field Army levels anywhere west of the Mississippi. My last six months was on active duty assisting the 7th Infantry Division (Light) write the exercises in which their new light infantry status was being certified. By then I was older than anyone in the Division except the Colonels, Generals and Command Sergeant Majors, and I began to realize that I wasn't going to be running over the hills carrying a rifle like the kids did anymore. Besides, I was a logistics officer, mostly supporting armor units.

It's amazing how much the combat guys will tell you as we all sat around playing poker and drinking beer. But BevD's right, I haven't seen combat myself. People I've trained have, but I haven't.

Saying "people are variable" without any constraints, is an infinitive statement, chaos basically, more a matter of faith than science, and useless in this discussion. It sounds more like theology than science.

People are largely variable within some predictable brackets of aggregated emergent behavior. Which is a rather basic concept of evolutionary biology, game theory, and every other predictive theory of human nature. The whole point of this discussion is to try and isolate predictable causations of emergent behaviors, a point you seem to have missed.

You seem to have elevated free will to religious levels and resist all encroachment on it, or the idea of emergent evolved behaviors generally. You're not Christian and a believer in holy spirit and individual judgment/redemption by any chance? Or perhaps a great believer in the sanctity of individuality from a kind of 60s-70s New Agey perspective?

Your difficulty in seeing complex systems and your rather slow intuition.... Well, you're a good sport, it's been fun. But I'm probably not the person to explain these things to you.

You get part of the way there anyways, even if you tend to come up short and fall back on infinitives like "people are variable" to fill in the blanks.

The FBI definition of terrorism seems to be more encompassing - "the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce (a government,)the civilian population or any segment thereof in furtherance of a political or social objective."

If you would remove government in the above definition would not the Administration’s actions against the objecting citizens fit the definition of terrorism!

That is the problem, the techniques of control and direction by a government when it abandons the rule of law then produces an increase in resistance to its objective outside the country, and itself becomes an agent of terrorism to its own citizens!


-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking

For example, if we can agree that terrorists act almost only when members of and supported by small cultic/clique-ish groups, might we then decide to put greater restrictions on the freedom of assembly -- a balancing of security against civil rights

This rings in my ear like the subtext of the NRA talking about the right to own arms to defend the country. If gun ownership was outlawed, how would a small cultic/clique-ish subset of the group react and what would we call its actions?

As important for our discussions here, how would they describe their own actions?

-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking

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