Paying $2,355 for the Chance to Lend to You!

If you ever wondered just how profitable credit card lending can be, take a look at what a savvy business will pay for the chance to lend money to people already in financial trouble.

According to Nilson Reports, HSBC just sold its subprime credit card operations (338,000 accounts) in the UK to SAV Credit for $796,000,000. SAV paid an average of $2,355 per account.

After the customer has repaid the loan in full, SAV needs to make enough money on each account to cover the cost of funds, the cost of mailings and advertising, the cost to answer the call center queries and stay after the late payers, and the cost of the executives and overhead--and they still need to make another $2,355 per account just to break even.

Of course, if a few people default or die, then their share of the $2,355 needs to be made up by someone else in the pool--pushing the minimum needed return on the other accounts toward a handsome $3000 or so. And with high turnover rates in the credit card industry generally and high default rates in the subprime market in particular, SAV can't count on having all 338,000 customers for a year or longer. SAV must be counting on even higher returns from the smaller number of families who stay on as paying customers.

What can we infer about SAV's business model? They must look at each subprime family as another goose that will lay golden eggs for years to come.


Comments (32)

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This may seem far fetched. Copyright/patents are in the news. Cmpanies, today, routinely claim that the consumer must pay again, again, and again when they use a companies so-called intellectual property. Consumers are also routinely bombarded with spam and telemarketers invading our "privacy", wasting our time, and "stealing" our resources (computer hardware, phone bill, shredders, etc,) Since our personal information has value, everytime a company buys/sells/leases, whatever our personal data they should pay us a royalty.

All kidding aside, Steve, that's a great idea.  I'll bet it could be done.  I wish I was smart enough to figure out how to do it, but I'm not.  At the very least a class action would be required, I would think.

But yes, how much more private could personal info be?  If someone is using personal info as property, then of course the we own that property.  (oh, I think I need to read the fine print on my credit card agreements). 

Neoboho

It would be nice were Prof. Warren to provide a rather critical piece of information -- namely, what was the value (book or market) of the assets HSBC presumably assigned to SAV Credit. How much do the credit card holders owe? How much of those balances does SAV Credit expect to collect? More or less than the $796 million it paid?

In the absence of those figures -- among others -- her analysis appears highly suspect.

 

In the absence of your explaining why, I don't think so.

Elizabeth Warren for Nobel Peace Prize in socio-legal economy. Keep up the fire counselor...

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Perhaps. But does it matter? Clearly putting aside the assets SAV is getting , if any, it's paying something for these accounts. And  doing that because it knows it will get that back from the profit it will make on them. And the sun rises in the east. I don't see that it makes much difference to Elizabeth's point whether that figure is $2300 per account or only half that (which would surprise me).

My hunch is that HSBC will collect the outstanding balances so what SAV will be getting is some data processing equipment and programs. Whatever the book cost (who cares?) I doubt whether its market value is more than a fraction of the purchase price.

We already know  credit card companies spend generously to attempt to capture new customers. Every day's mail shows that.. And clearly they lose money on the on-time payers(OTPs) so it's the slow payers who not only  cover the costs of those uncooperative OTPs  but  in addition generate the profits .

So , no surprise that SAV is paying a lot to get a customer list uncontaminated by OTPs .  Just those desperate , deep-in-debt sub primers who are the object of every cc company's affection. What else is new? Did I mention that the sun rises in the east?

 

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What tax benefits will accrue to SAV Credit for this purchase?

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"her analysis appears highly suspect"

Its worse than that. For me her post falls under the category of "are you that stupid or do you think I'm that stupid?".

SAV Credit was not buying individual accounts. They were buying credit card brands and the supporting operations.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKL3033574420071030

These were the British operations of the US based Household Finance, that HSBC had bought in 2003(?) Obviously, for SAV Credit, the asset is worth more than just the current number of card holders.

Jack

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It really shouldn't be hard to pay us a royalty. The technology to contact us already exists. Radio stations, for example, pay royalties for songs they play. What amazes me, they can afford to send us junk mail and spam, but when it comes to potential laws that would restrict this abusive practice - all of a sudden it magically becomes to "difficult" to implement.

I just love love the credit card agreements concerning our privacy. Citigroup just sent me the following: "The security of personal information about you is our priority. We protect this information ...." Further down "Our ability to share information with our affiliates helps us to more easily provide you with quality products and services to meet your financial needs and goals." Basically the affiliates are anyone who will pay and disclosing information to anyone who pays is not "protection".

What I also find humerus from the misleading "we value you" perspective. When I get a solicitation from Citigroup or any other credit card company it comes with a pre-paid pre-addressed envelope. My privacy notice came with NO pre-addressed envelope and I have to pay postage to send it back!!!! Clearly they are trying to make it difficult for me to opt-out of sharing my personal information for their financial benefit.

My hunch is that HSBC will collect the outstanding balances   .   .   .   .

 But then again, were Prof. Warren to say as much -- which she didn't -- we wouldn't be left to guess, now, would we. 

SAV Credit was not buying individual accounts.

What makes you think so?  Surely, not anything reported in the Reuters squib you linked to.

Clearly putting aside the assets SAV is getting , if any, it's paying something for these accounts.

Yes, but there's a big difference between paying $2300 per account and $100 per account, the latter hardly justifying the posting.

Presumably, HSBC wanted to clean up its balance sheet by removing some risky, difficult-to-value assets. And too, SAV Credit had access to funding -- the Royal Bank of Scotland and its own private equity partners -- which HSBC may not have had.

For all we know SAV Credit may have paid substantially less than book value for the HSBC assets it acquired. In the end we don't know how much SAV Credit did pay.

Well, at least you didn't recommend her for the Sveriges riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne.

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I don't know:-P, maybe the head line?

"HSBC sells Marbles credit card brand"

They were selling the brand get it?

Jack

Bubble or Bail-out?

Her analysis suggests that this is the present value of expected future rip-offs. But, who knows really either what SAV paid or got?

Maybe this is really just MORAL HAZARD MARCHING ON or Son of Northern Rock.

I suspect a third party in this is the Governor of the Bank of England who, like the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has carte blanche to print money in order to indemnify improvident lenders or "stabilize" exchanges and manage "sytemic risk" from unregulated or actually fraudulant practices on a scale considered "too big to fail".

The Bank of England would not discriminate for or against any British financial institutions except, probably whatever functions as "Barings Bank" today. So, likely tranches of something were advanced and all sorts of things were "offset" here and there to keep something from visibly "going under".

I don't think the premium paid for these accounts reflects a "bubble" in loan sharking, more likely the on-going monetization of improvident lending and rank speculation with funds "entrusted" to ... crooks who will never see the inside of Old Bailey.

::JRBehrman

Thought that might be your problem.

New rule!  Gotta read what the reporter wrote, not what the internet headline writer got out of it.

I don't think the premium paid for these accounts   .   .   .   .

What makes you think SAV Credit paid a "premium"? 

Elizabeth,

I hope you can answer this question for me because it's something I've never understood...

Obviously, HSBC sold its loan portfolios at a discount to the face value of the loans. Let's say they sold them at 80 cents on the dollar.

If I'm a borrower from HSBC, why am I not given the right or opportunity to settle the loan with a lump sum payment at the market discount price?

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

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no problem here ,
I did ,
they did.

Edit: removed snarkyness, my apology.
Upon rereading my original post I realised I did not directly mention the most valueable asset the loans themselves. That may have caused some confusion.

Jack

Because the parties considered that a 20% discount applied to the face amount of the entire portfolio represented that asset's true value.

But destor23 has to pay the full amount, because his above average financial responsibility -- the likelihood, that is, that he'd repay his credit card balance in full -- was taken into account in setting the 20% discount.

Had destor23 and his well-known probity not to mention his innate honesty not been in the mix, the discount would likely have been -- oh, say 20.001%, maybe even 20.002%.

"If I'm a borrower from HSBC, why am I not given the right or opportunity to settle the loan with a lump sum payment at the market discount price?"

because "80%" is the expected (statistical) value of the portfolio.

if more people than expected paid less, like you want to do, then the debt would have to be priced lower.

mathematical example:

(payback in full)*80%
+ (no payment)*20% = 80% expected return

versus

(payback in full)*50%
+ (payback 80 percent)*30%
+ (payback 0 percent)*20% = 74% expected return

i.e. the 80% return is only achieved if the predicted colleciton rate is achieved.

To boldly go...

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Here are some URLs that will help answer some of the questions being ask.

http://tinyurl.com/ytfajr

http://tinyurl.com/22zjvt


http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/article3087716.ece

Jack

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It's a tough business. My daughter's worked in it for years, thinks the revision of the bankruptcy laws was great.( I remain silent for the sake of family relationships) I'll ask her what she thinks of the SAV deal.

If I'm a borrower from HSBC, why am I not given the right or opportunity to settle the loan with a lump sum payment at the market discount price?

BTW: I think this option is available; In real-estate, if you send in a hardship letter, the bank might agree to a short sale if you provide credible evidence that it's either a short-sale or foreclosure and credit card companies, through consumer credit counselors, can reduce outstanding interest and late penalties. Based on my sense of people, if you're proactive enough to seek relief, you're probably proactive enough to manage your money well in the first place.

To boldly go...

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Credit card companies are able to continue their onerous practices only because the average american has been divided and nearly conquered. The rich and powerful are now controlling, at least greatly influencing, our lawmakers. I have been told that most of the english speaking world does not let individual lawyers write such onerous "contracts". Instead, there are standard, government approved agreements for credit cards, bank loans, apartment leases, car rentals, etc. That sounds to me like a far better system. Have you ever read the backs of such agreements? They are not even close to a fair or mutually agreed upon contract. Why have we let one third of one percent of our people (the lawyers) have so much controll over our lives?

They are not even close to a fair or mutually agreed upon contract.

It's fair because you're not forced to use it. There's so many alternatives. Perhaps you can start a non-profit which helps people switch to better financial products.

As Gandhi noted: "be the change you seek" and because the world is so corrupt, it's easy to find people who need help and if, since you're launching a grassroots movement, it can't be corrupted by the government and you can indeed tell people "straight up" and "without fear of being filtered" that corporate america is screwing them!

I used to have a BMI of 34; now it's down to less than 24 because I smartened up! Additionally, I just ordered some electronic components that I'll use to build a new device that I'll market to folks who need motivation.

To boldly go...

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Let's do a really naive analysis. Suppose that the average balance on these accounts is $5000. Now, suppose that the average interest rate is 16%. I don't think either of these is unreasonable, but what do I know? Putting these figures together, this means that the accounts generate on average something like $800 a year. Plus, you're collecting a few percent from the merchants for everything charged on these accounts. Paying $2300 an account for each of these seems pretty reasonable, even if you expect a substantial (but not huge) default rate.

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Hey CMS, you stated that your BMI has shrunk from 34 to 24. That is not good. A human's brain mass index will shrink as one gets older, but your decrease sounds serious. I would see a different Shrink, if I were you.

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oh and here I thought he was talking about his bowel movement index.

Jack

A human's brain mass index will shrink as one gets older, but your decrease sounds serious.

well, when people have a lot of crap on their minds, it does get heavy.

I would see a different Shrink, if I were you.

when one sees the light, they become the Shrink because everyone else wants a peaceful mind, not one filled with past crap.

To boldly go...

I've measured my weight before and after bowel movements and it rarely changes by more than a pound unless the intestine is full of water and the ambient temperatures are falling-- usually beween summer and fall, and my body realizes that it doesn't need to be a swamp cooler.

As you get older, it's really the "Brawny Mass Index" since the eldery lose muscle mass and it's not a funny thing. i.e. My 90 year old grandmother has a hard time lifting a gallon of milk!

some interesting links:

Age Vesus Weight - I'm in the 25% to 50% quartile-- so there's much less crap in me than most americans;

Age Versus BMI - Same comment as above, not much crap in me since I'm ligther than most.

To boldly go...

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I'm really confused by the point of this post. Yes, SAV was founded to lend to the less credit worthy segment of the market (these people need credit, too, but lending to them is more risky - a different business model) Yes, HSBC sold off a part of its credit card business - presumably a part focused on the same market.

The introduction talks of how this sale demonstrates the profitability of lending to the less credit worthy, but there's never any further discussion of profit. The purchase price is stated, in total and on an average per account basis, but there is never any disclosure of the assets gained in the purchase. There is no factual basis in the post from which to discuss or imply profitability.

So, what's the point?

The news in this news is that HSBC, the largest bank in Europe is making moves to lower its portfolio risk and to minimize its exposure to downward asset evaluation. The present value of these assets is a function of, among other things, the expected default rate. That seems likely to go up for a number of reasons, lowering the value. But, the money to make these loans (credit card balances are loans) has, in recent years, come from selling certain types of securities. The balances owed and the income from interest (and fees) is considered an asset. Asset-backed securities are sold to fund more loans. These asset-backed securities are rated based on risk and return. While things were looking up in the world, investors were willing to buy the more risky ABS's because the return was high. As we entered the current 'correction', investors were no longer willing to take the risk and the market for the risker (and really all) ABS's dried up (no investors = no demand = oversupply = lower and lower prices for the securities: econ101). If you can't sell more of these securities, you can't raise more money to loan. It's no longer a good business for HSBC to be in. We don't know from the details released, but this was likely a fire sale to improve HSBC's overall financial picture.

The SAV deal was funded by RBS and "by its existing private equity partners". Someone obviously thought that, at a discounted price (and thusly discounted value on the books) that this now makes financial sense. SAV, RBS, and the partners likely have a different business model that doesn't depend on the sale of asset-backed securities to fund credit to the higher risk market. That would make this acquisition more of a core business for SAV than it was for HSBC. That should be good for everyone involved (it's more financially 'efficient').

Is there money to be made in the credit card business? Absolutely. Is that a bad thing? Not if you like using credit cards. Should companies make a higher percentage profit from lending to the less credit worthy segment of the market? Yes. If the risk is higher, the reward must also be. The alternative is that credit in the higher risk markets dries up and that isn't good for anyone.

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