Hayek's Marvel
Thus far we've been exploring some risks associated with certain uses of the Internet. Let's turn to another, happier side. The central ideas come from Friedrich Hayek, the great twentieth century critic of socialism and defender of market arrangements. Hayek's ideas bear directly on open source software, wikis, prediction markets, and perhaps much more.
Hayek’s most important contribution to social thought is captured in his short 1945 paper, “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” Hayek claims that the real advantage of prices is that they aggregate both the information and the tastes of numerous people, incorporating far more material than could possibly be assembled by any central planner or board, however expert and well-motivated. Hayek emphasizes above all the unshared nature of information -- the “dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.”
Hayek's claim is that in a system in which knowledge of relevant facts is dispersed among many people, prices act as an astonishingly concise and accurate coordinating and signaling device. They incorporate that dispersed knowledge and in a sense also publicize it, because the price itself operates as a signal to all.
Hence Hayek argues that it “is more than a metaphor to describe the price system as a kind of machinery for registering changes, or a system of telecommunications which enables individual produces to watch merely the movement of a few pointers.” Hayek describes this process as a "marvel," and adds that he has chosen that word on purpose so as “to shock the reader out of the complacency with which we often take the working of the mechanism for granted.”
On the Internet, prediction markets are an obvious illustration of Hayek's point. They can be found on many sites, and they tend to do exceedingly well, because they incorporate dispersed information so as to generate a price. That price often works as a probability, that is, the price of the "bets" accurately captures the probability that the event will occur. For elections, Oscar winners, and economic events, prediction markets have been uncannily accurate.
Wikis do not establish prices, but they have a strong Hayekian feature insofar as they aggregate highly dispersed knowledge, generating a product that goes well beyond what the most expert and hard-working board could possibly create. (Wikipedia is the most obvious example; of course it's imperfect, and in some cases really bad, but still.) Open source software works in large part because of the fact that it incorporates the knowledge, insights, and creativity of lots of people. Other open source products are generating a great deal of interest for the same reason.
Judge Richard Posner has gone so far as to invoke Hayek's argument about the price system on behalf of blogs. In Judge Posner's words:
"Blogging is . . . a fresh and striking exemplification of Friedrich Hayek's thesis that knowledge is widely distributed among people and that the challenge to society is to create mechanisms for pooling that knowledge. The powerful mechanism that was the focus of Hayek's work, as of economists generally, is the price system (the market). The newest mechanism is the 'blogosphere.' . . . The Internet enables the instantaneous pooling (and hence correction, refinement, and amplification) of the ideas and opinions, facts and images, reportage and scholarship, generated by bloggers."
I think that Posner greatly overstates things, in part for reasons sketched in the previous post. But the great promise of the Internet, for politics and consumer products alike, is that it collects dispersed knowledge, and exposes it to public view. It is important to distinguish between those domains in which the Internet produces a "crippled epistemology," and those in which it is being used so as to help in the aggregation and revelation of widely dispersed knowledge.















Getting everyone on the Internet together to put up a basic biography of an author, movie director, political figure or even a fiction character seems to work really well. I love using Wikipedia as a starting point for that kind of thing. It's fun and informative.
But before we get to high on the merits of the masses -- I'd point out that when it comes to matters of taste, this group dynamic is not very helpful. Getting the facts out there is something groups can do very well. Interpreting to taste seems a better job for the individual.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
November 15, 2007 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree. Sites like Pitchforkmedia and various TV fanboy sites have allowed the kind of informed fandom which used to be the province of the psychotic few to become the stomping grounds of the many. I think this has led television criticism, previously a rather arid and trailer-parkish affair, to develop some of the mad richness of the opera aficionado-ism of yore. In general, tha kidz today are versed and skeptical to a degree unimagined in my already ironic and postmodern youth, and I think they owe a lot of that to the ease of forming critical communities and disseminating recherche insider trivia via internet.
"All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." - I.F. Stone
November 15, 2007 7:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just let it happen. Self-initiated Mix!
November 15, 2007 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very good point. The fact that The Shawshank Redemption is usually rated as one of the top ten movies of all time on the IMDB is a reflection on the IMDB (and its voting methodology), not on the art of cinema. (Sorry if you're one of those who love it.) A "market" of a sort has established its value, but I don't particularly value that market.
In fact, most of us have already learned to balance quantitative and qualitative online opinions pretty well. If I were looking for a restaurant in a strange city, I'd skim the overall ratings, get a sense of which ones seem widely admired and to have sent a high percentage of patrons home happy, but as soon as I wanted specifics about the cuisine, I'd look to reviews by reasonably learned or reliable individual critics-- which could be newspaper reviewers, or could be people on a site like Chowhound who seem literate, thoughtful and similar in taste to myself. The value of online sources of information comes precisely from the individual's own ability to zero in on total strangers who offer the level of insight you're looking for. For that reason I believe the real wiki is the one in my head sorting it out, more than anything structural online.
November 15, 2007 7:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel like I've been a bit hard on you. Mostly since a lot of my fear comes more from what David Brooks will do with your book than the actual merits of your book, that's no reason to take it all out on you.
There have been three major leaps in evolution. The first was the formation of the first cell. The second was when cells started to collect together and specialize, so that organisms were possible. The third is human consciousness, which allowed individual organisms to specialize and work together to create a social organism called culture or society.
I see the Internet as the jump from jellyfish to first neural system. What you see forming is a collective mind, where many individual neurons direct messages back and forth until somehow, a consensus forms -- the equivalent in the brain sorting through experiences, predictions, wants, needs, etc. to eventually coalesce around a particular action or idea -- to trust someone, to give a homeless man money.
So, I don't want to completely chase you away from your warnings now that I've stated my concerns. What I'd like to see next would be concrete examples of this happening. Would a Drudge rumor count? I think not, since that is top down, rather than from Daily Mes. I've seen several possible scandals evaporate -- say, the collective effort to track down whether a photo of Bush showed him wearing medals he could not have earned. People coalesced around the idea, started hunting down documents, National Guard regs., and then, poof! It fell apart. (Very different from, say, discrediting Sgt. Beauchamp for writing about the realities of war for a pro-war publication -- there, you have people wanting to shut down disloyal sources rather than any particular concern for truth.)
I also think of Sy Hersh's pronouncements of war with Iran. I have greatly admired his work, and took his predictions very seriously, but the specific dates for a war with Iran never materialized. I have never heard an explanation for this. Every now and then, the Internet is abuzz with talk of us gearing up for a war with Iran -- the reasonable folks like Marshall, to their credit, always state when these things are not known, or hazy, and with caveats, but concluding that from past experience, we definitely know these guys are capable of doing something this stupid, and ought not assume, as we did last time, that a "vote for peace" is anything but a way for Bush to start a war before he admits he's after one, so we debate the merits after the decision has been made, when it would be unpatriotic to do anything but support us in this time of trial. If a war never materializes, it will be left to history to figure out how serious Cheney was about expanding this war, and how much was our imaginations.
One day, despite our track record, there is going to come a time when we are faced with facts that fundamentally contradict our worldview, and it will be interesting to see how it is handled. I can only hope I still cling onto some small piece of that open mind and objectivity that so often undermines us to do what Josh and Kevin Drum did. When the universe didn't operate according to their beliefs, they modified their beliefs to fit the universe.
The country suffers because so many mold the universe to fit their beliefs -- without any help from the Internet.
November 15, 2007 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
(Very different from, say, discrediting Sgt. Beauchamp for writing about the realities of war for a pro-war publication -- there, you have people wanting to shut down disloyal sources rather than any particular concern for truth.)
I'm sorry, but that's just incorrect, and an example of what Sunstein describes, groupthink believing what it wants to believe despite the facts it would encounter if it left its cocoon. The Beauchamp affair in fact demonstrates the precise strength of the Internet in bringing varied expertise to verifying journalism. Entirely legitimate questions were raised about Beauchamp's account-- can a Bradley be driven like that? Did the "melted face" person exist? Was a cemetery like that one found?
The questions were mostly answered accurately (a Bradley can just barely be driven like that, but doing so would expose the crew to greatly increased danger and almost certainly earn a severe reprimand not to mention intervention by the troops being put at risk; no trace of the "melted face" person can be found, and Beauchamp has subsequently moved the location of the event to Kuwait, invalidating its point about the dehumanizing effects of war, which he would not have experienced yet in Kuwait; cemeteries have been excavated, and guidelines call for respect and proper care, but hey, out in the field, something else could have happened). In short, the stories mostly didn't check out, and insisting they did and that the scrutiny was illegitimate just because it was undeniably partisan is the act that shows "no particular concern for truth."
November 15, 2007 8:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cass, I wrote much of my college thesis, which is how I ended up interning at TPM, on your book Republic.com's analysis of blogs. When I first read it, I thought there was a strong logic, on paper, that this Daily Me would polarize the country to extreme ends. But we're now several years out and blogs, along with all the other cultural isolators like mp3s and youtube, have yet to manifest themselves in the way you predicted.
Look at the left wing blogs, for example. It would be a tremendous stretch to say that they have polarized to the extremes. If anything, sites like Daily Kos were a reaction to the extremists on their side, the narrow causes of protests and academia. They formed as a haven for the left-of-center crowd who had been ignored and they're actions have shown, if anything, a move towards the center not further leftwards. Look at the most popular candidates on these blogs in 2006 - Jim Webb, Jon Tester - these are almost absurdly centrist figures compared to who blogs, by your thesis, would support if they truly were moving further towards extremes.
As for the right wing blogs, they have decidedly moved to the extremes, but this has nothing to do with their internal conversation and isolation and everything to do with a rightward move at the very top. There would be no relevant pro-torture movement among bloggers if the President had not authorized torture. Ditto with warrantless wiretapping and extraordinary rendition. They're following their leaders' lurch rightwards, not the other way around.
November 15, 2007 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just catching up to this week's discussion, but, overall, it seems that Prof. Sunstein's ideas are rooted in a modernistic, normative, industrial-age point of view. Things like pricing systems, deliberative democracy, informed citizenries, and a working news media, these are all outdated, overtaken in an age of corporate media, privatized armies, global surveillance and an endless war on terrorism.
Sunstein, in a previous post, mentioned the citizen and the consumer -- well, what's the difference? When terror strikes, good citizens go shopping.
I agree that Hayek can be applied to the little things, good wiki pages and bloggers disseminating information about the political events of the day, but if by the phrase "the promise of the Internet" we're talking about political power and political resistance, I doubt there's any applicability for pricing systems.
The whole thesis is based on the idea that more and better information will create an optimal democracy, but more and better information is impossible, because that's the way the system works. We went to war in Iraq with 70 percent of the country thinking Saddam had a role in 9/11. It's easy to look back at that, and say, gee, if we only had better information, we could have avoided that mistake.
But I think we have to examine how easy it was to fool the country, how, systematically, everything just fell into place. It was easy to tweak the system -- give a speech or two, plant some controversy here, leak some bad intel there, etc.
We can either conclude that if we only had more and better information, we could have avoided the war. Or, we can conclude that the system was designed to work the way it did.
It was a feature, not a bug.
In other words, there is no "free market" of knowledge upon which to apply pricing systems when the government operates in secrecy, when policies are implemented by the private, above-the-law armies of Blackwater, and when everything you discuss is being monitored in an out-of-the-way switching room at AT&T's corporate offices.
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
November 15, 2007 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
None of what you said invalidates meme's point -- that the motivation behind the questions around Beauchamp was a desire to shut down disloyal sources.
Not for some honest quest for the Truth, which you seem to believe, or seem to be implying.
November 15, 2007 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
What I am describing is searching for facts that fit your thesis, the thesis being Sgt. Beauchamp must be a fraud because those stories didn't fit some fantasy flag-waving version of war.
Nothing about Beauchamp's stories undermined the war. They were written for a pro-war publication. Anyone who says these things don't happen in war either has no knowledge of war, or does, but wants to lie about it to keep the wool over people's eyes. Even Andrew Sullivan went ballistic on these guys. I know there's still back and forth about the accuracy -- the army won't release a report that says Beauchamp made this stuff up, Beauchamp tells the magazine he stands by his story and that he's been pressured to say certain things or such and such happens, blah, blah, blah.
But lets pull back for a moment and look at the big picture: A soldier writes, in a sensitive way, about how the daily realities of war desensitizes a soldier, for a publication that supports the war, but wants to present a soldier's view. The purpose of the Bradley, etc. is the same purpose of challenging Aron Braussard's breakdown on Meet the Press over a guy's mother after Katrina. They focus on some inconsistency to claim he's a charlatan so they can shut down the empathy one might feel after seeing him bawling over some guy's mother who calls every day, wondering when they're coming to save her, and drowns.
I admit, I'm not immersed in the details of Beauchamp as I am in others, so I sure would like to see this stuff you're talking about that discredits those stories.
If it does, this seems to be an example of how blogs DON'T reinforce one another around a false idea the pushes our politics.
November 15, 2007 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm 'free riding' on your excellent post to add that while open source software does capture the knowledge of many creative people, it's pricing system and labor costs largely turn Hayek and his pricing mechanism upside down and inside out.
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 15, 2007 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Quite surprised to check in on the TPM website and see an article approving of Hayek!
November 15, 2007 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
In fact, if you would read my post, I acknowledged that it such questions were largely partisan.
I don't believe for a second that that makes them illegitimate, however, any more than partisanship makes, say, David Corn's reporting on Bush illegitimate. Do you think that kind of partisanship is automatically discrediting? Does meme? How would you decide which publications or bloggers are automatically discredited? And how do you reconcile that with Meme's own comments about wanting to be open to facts, not beliefs?
November 15, 2007 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're following their leaders' lurch rightwards, not the other way around.
This is probably why Rep. John Linder (R-GA) made his infamous comment that had redstate.org seeing red. Under your theory, it makes perfect sense.
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 15, 2007 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
An act can either be motivated by partisanship, or by Truth. Not both.
A partisan act may have Truth to it, a side effect of sorts, which is exactly what you're arguing. But there is self-interest in partisanship, while a quest for Truth is altruistic.
It's one or the other. You're trying to have it both ways.
November 15, 2007 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
First off, the New Republic no longer supports the war. It's a good little liberal now.
Second, I feel like you're missing the point of the "marketplace of ideas" by getting hung up on the motives of this or that participant. The motives don't matter-- what matters is how the marketplace reacts to new information brought to it. If the new info is unverifiable, wacky, phony, a smear job with no solid basis to it, its bubble will pop very quickly. The marketplace itself is the method by which something either gains or loses legitimacy. It will often happen that somebody on one side will have the reason to start a story making the rounds. That's not a bug, it's a feature, the self-correcting mechanism of the marketplace by which each faction keeps an eye on the others.
In this case, yes, rightwing sites started with a feeling that Beauchamp's stories didn't pass the smell test and that a liberal mag was being fed what it wanted to hear by an ambitious writer who might not have even been a soldier (though of course it turned out he was). I think you'd be surprised to read the tentative and probing way this started, far from the rah-rah talk radio ranting you probably imagine:
That's from the Weekly Standard and while partisan, it is entirely responsible, it seems to me, about raising fair questions about the veracity of an account, and avoiding dismissing the account outright on blustery patriotic grounds. I could find a summing-up account about the ways in which Beauchamp's story proved suspect, but I think that's missing the point-- even if it had checked out 100%, there was nothing bad about subjecting it to scrutiny and verification, any more than there is about any subject of any example of investigative reporting in any newspaper, magazine or blog.
November 15, 2007 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I don't think believing things automatically discredits you, if you earnestly attempt to arrive at beliefs through an empirical process of inquiry.
Is the surge working? If I am concerned only with the rhetorical advantage the answer gives me, then I'll just say what helps my cause, or seek out data that backs me up -- something we are all capable of, that Cass warns us against. I want a media that can tell me what they observe on the ground, and I want to know I can trust them when they tell me these things, and I want bloggers who aren't so blinded with partisanship they can't accept casualties might be going down, or simply find an alternative set of facts to contradict this, or run a slime campaign to sift through the underwear drawer of whoever is collecting or presenting this information because I don't like the data. I want an intelligence community that looks to see if Iraq has WMD, and presents reports based on our best, though flawed, ability to determine what they have.
So I am always gratified when Kevin Drum concedes there may be some decrease in violence, and I am gratified that he puts it in context, and looks at whether things are better, bottoming out, we're running out of people to "cleanse", will end when the surge does, or actually, honest to God, means we're winning -- which the media won't do. I don't want someone to say there is no decrease because that means Bush's failure is no longer tailspinning, and I don't want someone to declare victory, as this surge was meant to do, so Bush can bug out of town, leaving the army broke and his successor to blame when the number inevitably come down.
Atrios, as partisan as he is, probably has a better track record of calling this stuff than any body. So does Krugman. And I love them for it. Kevin Drum and Josh Marshall, in my experience, are very open to altering their views to fit the evidence, if they let their objective tendencies to lead them astray from time to time. Sy Hersh was doing great work, then the things he reported stopped materializing. I'm willing to hear why, but I'm a little more wary than I used to be. Michele Malkin and Bill Kristol have less than zero credibility. They are in negative numbers; they are not only not to be believed, but are a force for purposely misleading and distorting the world as it is. Drudge's track-record on the whirling siren should tell any legitimate journalists how reliable he is.
Don't misunderstand me. I'm not saying I have some corner on truth. I'm saying, neither does David Broder. I'm saying, especially David Broder. I'm saying he's dangerous because he thinks his superior intellect is not capable of ever getting led astray because he believes in his ideology of centrism is as immaculate as any cultist.
I'm saying, yes, truth is illusive, we are all susceptible to our biases, humans have an ingrained need to conform, and a remarkable ability to lie to themselves. Which is why I find these rightwing loonies who attack the credibility of anyone who's not a true-believer and selling the Kool-Aid because they can't accept that you could both, say, fight for your country AND not be a Republican.
It's hard enough figuring out what's really going on when everyone's earnestly doing their best to suss it out. What is unforgivable and remarkable is how few even care to. The ones who drive me insane are those who don't need to search because they already know everything, who have their knowledge revealed to them, and only need things like intelligence and facts if that's what other people need to see the rightness of their ways, and if the facts say otherwise, then we've got the wrong facts. If the intelligence doesn't show WMD, then you're not doing it right. That we can't come up with a plan for handling the insurgency because it implies the war might not go as perfect as we intend.
Malkin doesn't care if Kerry got shot at in Vietnam. He's a Democrat, and must be destroyed, whether we find something, distort something, or make it up, it doesn't matter. What matters is what we make the facts say.
November 15, 2007 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's utterly simpleminded.
Which were Woodward and Bernstein, motivated by partisanship or by Truth with a capital T?
Which was Mary Mapes?
And did it matter-- or did the facts they found (in the former case) or failed to find (in the latter) matter most?
November 15, 2007 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Second, I feel like you're missing the point of the "marketplace of ideas" by getting hung up on the motives of this or that participant. ...The marketplace itself is the method by which something either gains or loses legitimacy....the self-correcting mechanism of the marketplace by which each faction keeps an eye on the others.
By not examining motivations you're actually talking yourself into thinking there's a marketplace of ideas.
Then again, you call the Weekly Standard "responsible." A magazine that continues to publish stories about how Saddam had WMD and how Saddam was tied to al Qaeda.
All you have to do is look at the ties between the Weekly Standard (which is owned by Murdoch's News Corp.), the Bush Administration, and the push for war in Iraq to understand there is no "marketplace of ideas."
November 15, 2007 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you make the common mistake of assuming that Darwin says it is the act of winning that makes one superior. Just because a meme spreads does not make it correct. VCRs didn't outsell Betamax because they were better. The fact that more people read Harlequins does not make them the superior works of literature.
Let's say, you belong to a cult that believes that if you all commit suicide when the Hale-Bop comet arrives, you'll get carried away by aliens. This could be an unsuccessful idea, but if one in every million people who watch the news report buy into your religion, you've expanded membership. For a time, anyway.
Drudge works precisely BECAUSE the accuracy of an idea is not necessarily what allows a meme to survive and thrive. It could be many other things: marketing, or by appealing to our biases, telling us what we want to hear, or by achieving some political ends.
I don't care if they're partisan. What I care about is if their approach is empirical, or propagandist. Do they look to science to figure out what's going on, or to manipulate until you're right?
Figures don't lie, but liars can figure. Do you make facts, or find them? That's what I want to know. Do you try to form opinions, whatever your passions, based on what you see, or do you try to see what feeds your passions?
November 15, 2007 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you teach at the University of Chicago, when all else fails, you cite someone else who teaches or taught at the University of Chicago, preferably an economist. Hayek, Friedman, but if an economist doesn't work cite Posner, a man who apparently wanted to be an economist but made the mistake of going to law school. What's with the insularity of that institution?
Ahh, but I've slipped back into my disrespectful sniping.
November 15, 2007 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shawshank would have been an example I'd have used. I don't happen to like it. But it is a kind of solid, mainstream movie. It's really well done according to all the conventions of what a Hollywood movie should be. For that reason it shouldn't be rated among the top movies of all time because it isn't innovative. But, it is. Because in a popularity poll, things with mass appeal are going to win out.
The consensus of taste can really distort measures of quality.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
November 15, 2007 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because, of course, there are never really two sides to any question. There's your side, which is always empirical and fair, and the other side, which is partisan and propagandist.
Which one of us had the open mind and which one was a true believer again?
Oh, and much as it pains me to say it, VHS was better in the way that mattered-- it could record two hours when Beta could record only one.
November 15, 2007 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh, you're so smart and I'm just a sheeple. You read Chomsky and I watch Fox News*, so you see how things REALLY are in the land of monolithic media.
So why are you posting here?
* Actually, I don't.
November 15, 2007 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree, past the obvious (i.e., I agree that knowledge, but more importantly, feedback is useful). Modern examples of non-financial "markets" are more refutation than support of Hayek's notion of a price system. To go from "feedback is useful (in a network)" to "a price system beats central planning" simply doesn't follow, either logically or empirically.
There is information feedback in open source software, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with a price system, and its mechanisms and modes of feedback support "central planning" on a per-case basis if not more generally (open source software is replete with dependencies that are effectively tracked in different ways). Open source software works amazingly well without a price system - and one could indeed say that it's a "marvel."
I'm not a die-hard fan of central planning, but I am a (Ph.D.) computer scientist who has not only been involve with open source software since the origin of Linux, but my dissertation was an application of principals of social psychology (conversations in particular) to computer-mediated communication. And I am a socialist, and have been for longer than I've been involved with open source software.
Computer operating systems are by and large systems of "central planning," albeit of a very dynamic sort (their planning is more about policy than predetermined action), and distributed operations are a much harder special case, normally not tackled at the level of operation system at all, but as a matter of communication protocols. To a computer scientist, then "central planning" and "markets" (viz, communication networks) are different things, both useful but used differently (i.e., apples and oranges).
On either level, though, there's a problem in computer science, maybe the worst of all conceptually identified problems, that befalls systems without such central-planning policies: it's called deadlock. Semantically, it's a situation of mutually unresolvable demand for resources. I would hope that at some point, economists start to consider this sort of problem and their implications; to a computer scientist, though, it's long been avoided like the plague that it can be.
So frankly, sir, it offends me a bit to read your assertion. You should instead be pointing out how Hayek and Mises missed larger points, and how relevant modern counterexamples should be towards refuting their reasoning, not giving them credit they don't deserve.
Mises railed about the "economic calculation" problem. My understanding (I'm a computer scientist, not an economist) is that Hayek wrote the paper in question to support Mises' argument. Never mind that every major global corporation relies on effective economic calculation via central planning aided by technology - it's called supply chain management these days - but that those corporations are economically destroying their more local competition - think WalMart for a specific example. The example of WalMart doesn't support Mises and Hayek, it refutes them.
Seems to me that Mises once made the point that he believed in a priorism, and had no use for a posteriorism. Anyone who considers themselves a scientist, or even a soundly capable mathematician, should understand what that says about him, if indeed he made such a point.
Capitalists make the huge mistake of conflating markets with capitalism, when what they more likely mean to do is equate unregulated financially-based markets with capitalism, i.e., networks for exchange devoid of policies for exchange (from a CS perspective, such is ridiculous; of course, some may add "we want laws" - particularly contract law - but such law is nothing if not central planning). I put the distinction differently. Markets are mechanism, and yes, they are widely and generally useful, since one might in fact term any communications network a "market"; but the distinction between capitalism and socialism is not about mechanism at all (e.g., markets vs. central planning) - it's about motivation: profit vs. social benefit, or finances vs. public welfare, or however else the idea of motivation for economic activity might be stated.
The term "economics" is not just about finances; it's from a Greek word meaning "household management." It's more general, far more general, than just an understanding of capitalism.
Open source software is a "market," in the sense that it's an effective communications network for purposes of exchange of ideas and product, which is in fact a community of markets, each of which is typically centrally planned based on feedback from various communities (users, developers, distributors, etc.). But there's one huge thing it's not - it's not capitalism, at least in isolation, and it doesn't involve a price system.
Technology has in the past few decades, and especially since the advent of the web, enabled feedback-based central planning, and that mode has proven hugely successful. So, at some nominal level, Hayek was right at some initial level of observation but wrong in his conclusions (Mises, on the other hand, was dead wrong), so if you think giving him credit for some fundamentally insightful reasoning about open source software, you're not being honest, or you're just not a very good analyst, with all due respect.
November 15, 2007 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the search for Truth altruistic?
Are most scientists searching for the Truth or are they looking for evidence to support their theory and other scientists are trying to find evidence to falsify their theory?
Is our judicial system altruistic, or is it comprised by advocates for and against the accused?
Are journalists altruistic, or are they predisposed to find fault with those they report on?
I am hard pressed to think of any altruistic search for truth in our society. I think most of us understand that most acts are acts of advocacy, but that take as a whole they will converge one the Truth.
November 15, 2007 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps "altruistic" isn't the correct word. I like Memekiller's word choice below better -- empirical versus propagandistic.
The judicial system and journalists are both empirical. They are not advocating, as a starting point, one position or the other. If anything, advocacy is used as a method to gain the truth.
Although I do think there's something altruistic in an empirical endeavor, and would argue that way in all the examples you provided above, that the overall motivation for science, for a legal system, and for a free press is for the common good. I would add the teaching profession to that list, too.
November 15, 2007 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't read Chomsky.
I don't think you're a sheeple. Just someone who gets his kicks by trying to prove how liberals are all assholes. It's a tired genre, though.
Thanks for saying I'm smart. I'm way too modest to say so myself.
(PS, I'm surprised at you, Max, resorting to whining so quickly into the argument. Usually you're a much more formidable debate opponent. But I guess that line about the Weekly Standard being "responsible" was waaaay too much of a softball. I'm almost embarrassed to have taken a swing at it. But not that much.) :-)
November 15, 2007 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
You didn't read my post if you think I'm saying my side is always empirical and fair because they're on my side. I'm saying I seek out people who are empirical and fair because I'm on their side. I'm saying, it's a mistake to say just because Josh's search led him to TPM that Malkin is just as earnest or employing the same mode of inquiry, you say round Earth, I say flat Earth, let's call the whole thing off. It is a mistake to say Malkin cares, or that Josh doesn't just because she doesn't.
Yes, we all have biases. Yes, we all lie to ourselves. Yes, we all have a tendency to see what we want to see. No, not everyone wants to be free of bias. No, not everyone is searching because they think they were born with truth downloaded into their brains, and such liberal pursuits as research, journalism, intelligence gathering or science are useful only insofar as they can educate the unenlightened who know not what they do. Even more shockingly, some people, regardless of their biases, actually really do want to know whether the world is actually round, regardless of how it benefits me personally.
Andrew Sullivan doesn't think he has all the answers. He thinks he can be wrong, he thinks he has been wrong, he still often is wrong. Such a thought has never crossed Cheney's mind -- he's been right from the beginning, he can never fail but is only failed, one day, you'll see, Saddam was behind 9/11, and a week away from obtaining nukes from Al Qaeda, which he stashed in Syria. He didn't need no stinkin CIA to tell him that, and when they didn't, it showed a flaw in the system he fixed with the Office of Special Plans that provided the right intel. The fact that what we found in Iraq happens to be closer to what the CIA found that of the OSP by a factor of ten should not in any way imply Cheney's intelligence was in any way inferior because that would require bringing empirical evidence into the equation. That's not how you determine these things.
I don't know what you believe, or how you approach it. I've made no judgment as to you. If your approach is in any way like Cheney's, then I'd say, get used to many, many more years of having to rationalize why things never seem to go they way you know they do.
November 15, 2007 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey... my wife went to the University of Chicago Law school. Obama taught there. A lot of smart people. A lot of wrong people, but shhhh, don't tell them.
November 15, 2007 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chomsky was wrong.
November 15, 2007 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The participants in judicial system are most certainly advocating at a starting point one position. A defense attorney is going to selectively use empirical evidence to place his client in the best light in front of a jury and the prosecutor is going to do the opposite.
As for motivation, I think it is naïve to assume that all scientists, lawyers, journalists, and teachers(?) are interested in the “common good”. Most of us assume that the participants in the various institutions are self interested or partisan to some degree, but that the market place of ideas will converge on the “common good”.
November 15, 2007 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hayek's essay says EXACTLY the opposite of what it is your claiming - he states that it is not necessary for every person to have every bit of information to make good decisions and in fact it can hamper and complicate decision making.
Geesh.
November 15, 2007 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure. But I think it's cynical to assume all people are only motivated by their own selfish interests.
Some people actually give a sh!t in some form or other. In fact, I'd say most people do.
November 15, 2007 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure. But I think it's cynical to assume all people are only motivated by their own selfish interests.
Some people actually give a sh!t in some form or other. In fact, I'd say most people do.
November 15, 2007 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
(This has been a very large and somewhat intellectual discussion. Any respectful response would have to be of considerable length and detail not appropriate to this format. So without any inference of dismissiveness I would like to submit the following observation.)
When we think of modern day Afghanistan we think of two things – unconquerable and anarchistic. Throughout history the most advanced and organized societies have tried and failed to control that region in the way that was so successful in other parts of the world. It seems that it proved easier to dominate a Pharoac Egypt or a modern, industrial Japan than it is to do so in this “backwater” of mankind. The explanation seems to lie in the other thing we think about Afghanistan – its anarchy. Every family is an authority unto itself. Every tribe has its hierarchies. Every valley has its long tradition of alliances. Apparently following the principle that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” they come together to eject any interloper and then quickly dissemble back into their fundamental atomism.
We like to think of this as primitive, almost pre-civilizational behavior. But is it? How else do we rationalize our support for Musharref? How else do we rationalize the tactics of Obama and Edwards vis a vis the Clinton candidacy? How different would our policies and our politics be without these alliances of convenience? And intrinsic to these alliances are the two attributes that they are strong and temporary.
Rather than seeing a weakness in the anarchy of the internet’s discourse, why not see strength? Groups, “group think” and such are just the strong and temporary alliances that never last and never prevail. The thousand year Reich lasted twelve years and was defeated by an alliance of capitalists, socialists, communists and ordinary men and women, an alliance that dissolved as quickly as it formed.
“Radical” is just an epithet. Four score months ago I would have been a radical to pronounce that Habeas Corpus is not a seminal legal principle of U.S. Constitutional law. Today I am a radical for proposing that it is. The strength of any idea is not found in a count of its supporters but in the discrete quality of its content. In thought or on the internet, this is the only measurement that matters. Only as an individual can one make this measurement and so it is the individual who needs to be nurtured, not some collective experience.
November 15, 2007 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It’s the “in some form of other” that is in question. Many people really give a passionate hemorrhoid inducing sh!t about some really bad ideas. Most of us rely on the market place of ideas to squash those steaming piles.
November 15, 2007 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now this is interesting, Larry, and though I disagree with you, I've had this disagreement - intelligently on both sides, I would like to think, with friends who are anarchists (I'm anything but).
The internet is not anarchy.
Don't confuse "capable of fully interconnected nearly simultaneous communication" with anarchy. In fact, that capability is a result of very well planned and very well implemented infrastructure.
Second, I would point out that "planing" doesn't only imply long-term pre-decision of courses of action that can't be adjusted for situation and circumstance. "Planning" can also mean identification of policy that is preconceived, but applicable to the most dynamic of situations and circumstances.
In a computer operating system, we write what are called "interrupt handlers" and "device drivers", and at higher levels, these map to event management policies and mechanisms, and to full and complete applications (like web browsers and word processes, which are entirely based on this model). The software that is so comprised is the result of planning.
In the early days of user-oriented programming, before GUIs and window systems, people like me racked their brains trying to figure out how to write interactive software at all, because the obvious model was to build it as sequences of steps that the user would have to follow, and of course, so constraining user behaviour was obviously a bad idea. It just doesn't work, so it was never a viable practical or conceptual approach. All such software now is effectively collections of bits of policy, organized so as to be applicable to events.
But that's planning. It's in fact "central planning."
On the subject of intelligence, I would commend to anyone Albert Einstein's essay "Why Socialism?" It really is time we get past this worship not just of the individual, but of the presumed efficiency of the Reptilian complex, and start taking advantage of our collective capacities for thought and action. There's more to life, and to the "meaning of life," than just the individual, and that seems to me the substance of Einstein's essay.
Einstein's essay was written about the same time (within a decade, anyway), as Hayek's essay on knowledge (in 1949).
November 15, 2007 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have to disagree there, and point out a problem with Hayek in general.
The problem with predictive markets is their "H-bar" stipulates the observation/predictive utility inversely correlates with the importance/relevance of subject to the observer. It's very difficult to get a utility of greater than zero on a meaningful topic.
Stephen Colbert predicted the Oscars without seeming to like many of them. I predicted almost every Oscar without seeing most of the films, by simply reading the "buzz" and using a little common sense and objectivity. Not seeing many of them even helped.
Beyond that, predictive markets are pretty useless. The futures market on presidential candidates is nothing more than a second order opinion poll. A second order poll measuring the buzz on democracy, as interpreted by a sub-set of that democracy, without any controls. Way too incestuous.
And the danger of predictive markets is they're inherently self contradictory. The more well known a market becomes, the more it distorts what it seeks to measure, and the less useful it becomes. It's success is inherently its failure.
November 15, 2007 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the exogenous factors that determine how the data on the Internet is accumulated and summarized? Who and what social, political and economic forces set the priorities? I think that is the direction this discussion is going.
I would like to free-ride on both of your posts, and agree that markets really do perform an excellent job of simplifying and reacting to massive amounts of data in such a way that the data can be acted on by large groups of people. But the process of simplifying all that data to provide a simple, clear result like the price is normally done within a power structure of some sort that limits access to the market. No money, no access. This is essential to achieve an efficient price mechanism, but it also excludes large amounts of data that do not bear on the immediate price. Those data are what the Econ 101 textbook on supply and demand call exogenous factors.
Then, there is the fact that markets are very expensive to maintain. Oliver Williamson's superb discussions of transaction costs points out that for markets to react to the latest data the market-makers have to always be collecting new data and busily transmitting the market results to every other potential market-maker. All this data collection and transmission is very expensive. It is also unnecessary for people who make essentially the same transaction over and over, like a steel mill that buys coal and iron ore from the same sources.
By the judicious application of power (that is, the steel mill buys its suppliers) the expense of data collection and remaking the same decisions over and over is replaced by an administrative decision on where to allocate the iron ore and coal. Administrative decisions are based on power - usually but not always modified by placing it in a bureaucratic social setting - rather than on market allocation. The elimination of the high costs of market transaction normally result in cheaper steel - along with bureaucracy and rigid, pre-made decisions. This is both the advantage and curse of large, efficient production runs. It' cheaper, and it works as long as market conditions for the product or service don't change.
About half way between buying your suppliers and conducting a market transaction for each purchase is a rigid contract system, usually between a much larger and thus more powerful entity and smaller ones. This is the Sears and Wal-Mart model. The purchaser retains flexibility to discard a supplier, but loses the administrative flexibility to easily and cheaply direct how they operate. Because of the power differential, the supplier is still effectively owned, without the security of that being on the larger companies' balance sheet normally provides. This is also the current position of another factor of production, non-unionized labor. The issue is power, not economics, and the discipline of economics focuses on markets while ignoring power relationships.
While I agree with Hayek on how much information is built into prices using the market mechanism (and I will agree that it is a marvel), all that information is built into the price by markets in which the surrounding power structure is simply assumed as a "given," or as the economists call it, an exogenous factor.
Economists measure prices. Power is not something that can be reliably measured, so economists ignore it. For economists doing regression equations, the effects of power are one of those factors that end up in their error factor. (Old social scientist joke - but true.)
People given both quantitative data (prices) and qualitative data of equal importance (power relationships) almost invariably make decisions based on the quantitative data alone. [That explains the entire philosophy of economic Libertarianism, by the way. Some Libertarians will explain it away by claiming that the use of power to cause someone else to do something is simply illegitimate and immoral.]But back to markets.
Markets optimize that massive collection of data that is incorporated in price, but the basis of optimization is exogenous to the market. Families have, raise and educate children, but that is an essentially non-economic function. People in a market economy do that on the side, as a personal goal and a personal reason for entering the market economy. It is not the business of having a family and raising and educating children that is accounted for by the fantastic data accumulation tool of prices. It is the motivation of individuals who participate in the economy that is reflected in those prices.
That goal and similar noneconomic goals are better reflected in the economy of power - the arena we call politics. The factory system which is the social basis of the Industrial Revolution is an amazing tool for productivity, and the financial markets which are a major part of it do a generally good job of allocating goods and services to support the society and its families. But it is an imperfect tool, imperfectly understood and often improperly used.
The same can be said for the markets of power, that is legislatures or parliaments, some of which are governmental and some of which are built into businesses (board of directors) and churches.
My point is that using the Internet to accumulate and summarize large amounts of data is a new tool which both resembles and differs from economic markets and democratic power mechanisms. It has the clear capability to accumulate and summarize massive amounts of important data. It also differs sharply in many ways from markets, from business organizations and governance and from democratic from methods of political governance. What is really important is to determine what factors are used to prioritize the data which is discarded and which is incorporated in the summaries, as well as what factors are endogenous to the system and what factors are exogenous.
At the moment, it appears that almost everything is endogenous, but that's not true. Anything which cannot be adequately described in written language is already excluded. That is only obvious when you become aware of it. What else is excluded? What else is used to prioritize summaries? A group of racists will set different priorities than will people who are members of an inclusive society, so generally accepted social attitudes are exogenous. How about the limitations on people who even have access to the Internet? What else is exogenous?
We've got a long way to go before we begin to understand what we have here. I think this discussion is moving us forward.
November 15, 2007 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It wasn't a softball, it was a misreading. I said the tone of that paragraph was responsible, as anyone reading it can see. You took that as an endorsement of the entire magazine and everything ever published in it. I chose not to embarass you by pointing this out, but you force my hand.
November 15, 2007 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points, but I think you're leaving out how predictions may change outcomes.
For example, Hersh predicted a rush to war with Iran and motivations for it, and the media generally covered the possibility, which brought a lot of debate to the subject and invalidated many of those arguments, and pressured the admin to issue reassurances. And the concern is that as the media moves on, the pro-war forces will be freer to again agitate behind the scenes.
Can't wait till this admin is history!
November 15, 2007 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I've always thought the idea of a "daily-me" polarizing the internet, is a bit kooky and out of touch with how things actually work.
I've always felt the greatest threat to the internet is in fact the traditional powers-that-be. such as state censorship, corporate branding and monopoly, and basically those concentrated power centers who would seek to leverage thier agenda on the internet.
It's only because our culture, and global culture, has become increasingly similar that the relatively smaller local deviations in culture seem magnified.
November 15, 2007 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
btw, I think the dilemma in my above post is a general problem I have with Sunstein's posts.
When he's talking about the dangers of polarization in the internet, I think he's stating an obvious truth but which is only half the story, and probably the lesser half. The more we focus on the possibility of polarization, and ignore the self moderating aspects of the internet, the more tempting some sort of paternalism becomes, which as this discussion has shown tends to be intuitively unpopular among the most liberal and open minded, and probably going to be most popular with the most narrow minded. Which is rather self defeating. Call it the paradox of fascism and authoritarianism, which always begin with the intention of moderation and unification.
On the other hand, to overly focus on and praise the wisdom of crowds, generalists as opposed to specialists, is to elevate a lack of expertise to expert status, perhaps best illustrated by the Cultural Revolution's lynching of intellectuals. Many of the contributors to Wiki on factual matters are actually experts in their fields. Wiki isn't really the wisdom of the crowds in the populist sense (which is how many interpret it) on matters of specialization and facts, so much as it's a tool for aggregating crowds of experts. And increasingly Wiki is moving towards a peer reviewed model such as science journals and traditional encyclopedia use, i.e. it's gaining controls. Though it will always be far larger than any physical encyclopedia, and able to cover a far wider range of subjective topics.
So, it has something of a Zen-like paradox to it all. (pardon the cheese) The more we glorify the novelty of the net, the more we'll run into old problems. The more we attempt to define problems narrowly and fix them, the more we're likely to harm the whole and break it. To glorify markets and crowds and forget controls is foolish. To glorify experts and authority and forget the value of crowds and democracy is equally foolish.
And the internet is, so far, the best example and furthest effort towards some optimum balance, in no small part due to the open and chaotic way in which it grew which allowed for rapid emergence of functional, and frankly rational, outcomes.
I think people should stop the hand-wringing and just leave it be; with the most basic exceptions of preserving net neutrality to prevent monopoly, policing obvious crime such as pedophilia, and standardizing technology for interoperability where it's clearly beneficial to market growth. (Bill Joy has some excellent thoughts on serial standards as inherently more efficient than parallel standards is lieu of Moore's law.)
As someone said, Sunstein has solutions in search of a problems.
November 15, 2007 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reminds me of the Star Trek episode where Kirk questions his objectivity, and Bones says, "I think the fact you even ask that question says your not" or something to that affect.
Back to insularity: did you know I've spoken with black people? Swear to God. And I live in the suburbs. I can probably count the number of black friends I've made through actual face-to-face social interaction on one finger. Okay, two, but lord knows, not many.
And Jews! There's a very high likelihood I've spoken to Jews! The odds are I have, which means from now on, I'll forever be able to utilize the prized white-male qualifier, "I can say this because I have a lot of Jewish friends... probably."
Bev is probably a woman. Let's be honest: what are the odds she would have spoken to me if she saw me in person?
I have argued with many, many Red Staters I never would have come in contact with if it weren't for the glories of technology. All hail the all powerful Internet!
You know how long I was reading Digby before I found out she was a woman? All this time I was enjoying her take-no-prisoners style, I had pictured some blue-collar macho man, or savvy, multi-millionaire movie studio producers. Then it turns out, all this time, she was just being whiny. Ha!
Maybe that's why woman don't talk to me in person.
November 15, 2007 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
JohnOneOne, both of your posts have been terrific. Regarding this one, since the Internet is the result of a well planned infrastructure, what causes so many problems when people like Prof. Sunstein try to fit it's activities into neatly labeled boxes and, as has happened here, it refuses to go into any box, labeled or not? It seems intuitive to me that the Internet's blogosphere won't neatly sort itself out as he's trying do, but I couldn't tell you why.
On the subject of individuals and collectives, another part of our problem lies with our worship of economic freedom, specifically individual economic freedom. It seems like we, as a nation, put the protection of that freedom ahead of all other freedoms, instead of at least treating them equally. If it could be proved beyond any doubt that collectively we all do better economically, I'm not sure that the champions of individual economic freedoms would change their tunes. It's disheartening.
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 15, 2007 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's an old story about a teacher walking down a path and observing two students stopped to argue about the objectivity or subjectivity of a large boulder beside the path. Seeing their teacher they called out to him to settle the debate. To which he responded they had rocks in their heads, and kept on walking.
Younger people tend to take to the internet, and find uses for it immediately, like fish to water. Others less so. Some do, some critique.
November 15, 2007 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not anarchy but it's the closest we'll ever get to a functional anarchy in the dissemination of information and news.
November 15, 2007 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, seashell, for throwing me a big softball... 8^)
I think you are hitting a nail on its head. When I post to blogs like this, I often comment that I'm a socialist because I'm a Christian, and note that Jesus was a socialist, and the early Christian church were socialists if not communists.
Turns out Mises agreed with me. Part IV Chapter III of his "Socialism," basically made 2 points by my reading: any objective evaluation of Christianity must conclude that it was socialism and antithetical to capitalism (I totally agree with that), but he also suggested that Jesus didn't care at all about society, since he expected the end of time very shortly (I disagree with that regarding completeness; Jesus secondarily talked about the end of time, but in the meantime, he was advocating concern for the poor and needy).
I think it's safe to say that Mises was not sympathetic to Christianity.
I think "worship" is exactly the right characterization, and yes, "economic freedom" is very close to what is being worshiped.
The apostle Paul said: "those who desire to be rich fall into temptation, into a snare, into many senseless and harmful desires that plunge people into destruction. For capitalism is a root of all kinds of evil. ... As for the rich in this present age, charge them not to be haughty, not to set their hopes in the uncertainty of riches..." (1 Timothy 6)
I apologize if this is repetitive and you've seen it before, but what is usually translated in English in that passage as "the love of money" is a single Greek word: philarguria, which literally means something like "preference for silver." Arguria was idiom for what we call "capital." Philos, as specifically opposed to pathos, was a weak word. Modern readers take the phrase in this context to mean "obsession with money," i.e., "avarice." But a more correct modern translation, it seems to me, is simply "capital-ism."
We could understand these two loaded words, capitalism and socialism, by reducing them to their simplest etymological interpretations: capital-ism and social-ism. That's what they
really mean. And I think more people know that than would admit to it. Instead, we get these endless, pointless arguments about relative efficiencies of markets vs. government and the like, none of which address the real underlying issue: motivation for human activity. Does one want to see money as individual private property, or does one believe that any private wealth, of any sort, has social context?
Bill Gates wouldn't be a billionaire, I dare suggest, if he was born and raised in Ethiopia or Bangladesh, or somewhere else where the society does not afford the kinds of opportunity he has enjoyed. It's really not that hard, but our interests and the culture (as Einstein noted) allow us to play deaf, dumb, and blind, as we pursue selfish but destructive interests.
In his essay, Einstein identified and I think spoke well to the same notion, i.e., of "evil." But more importantly, I think his intent was to raise the debate above the question of the mechanical efficiency of human desire, to one of the moral and ethical, if not simply rational, considerations of what we call "economics." I'd like to do the same.
November 15, 2007 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't confuse "capable of fully interconnected nearly simultaneous communication" with anarchy. In fact, that capability is a result of very well planned and very well implemented infrastructure.
The Internet, and it's true of any network in general, is actually much closer to anarchy than anything you can define as well planned.
The essence of a network is its instability. A network is never fixed, and diagrammatic attempts at defining it are simply point-in-time snapshots, always one step behind the actual. The network is always in a state of flux.
If anything was well-planned in the creation of the Internet, it was in its fail-safe-ness, it's ability to have one or more nodes taken out, and yet keep on ticking.
November 15, 2007 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't at all think we're as close as we'll get (the extent to which it's anarchy is a different issue, which I'll address as well), and that's not entirely to disagree with the sentiment, Bev, which I would suspect is borne of frustration, anxiety, or the like.
Einstein in his essay alluded to the "socialist society of the future." To quote him (I think the context is very important):
When one doesn't know how to analyze what one sees, it may look like chaos. But there may be supreme order behind the perception of chaos or near-chaos (I don't mean "supreme" in a religious sense at all, either.)
There is a social context here (and I mean here, in this comment thread, on this blog site). Try posting obscenities, for example. This blog is very clearly owned. And that's true of every blog. Some owners may exercise less control than others, but any of them could cut off commentary entirely if they wanted, not just limit it in various ways.
Some owners are moreover subject to the control of their service providers. Some of those SPs exercise more control than do others.
The perception of internet anarchy is an illusion, and I'm not talking about the technology, I'm talking about the social context.
"Context" is one of my favorite words, by the way. Control doesn't often have to be direct, I would suggest. Indirect control through control of context is just as effective, if not more effective, because it can avoid the perception that it's control at all. Any societally sanctioned system of law (i.e., "the rule of law") is of this sort.
There's plenty of structure to the internet, from all perspectives and at all levels. And most of it can, and I think will, be improved over time.
Predominantly, it can become not just more or less "interactive", but more "optimally" interactive, by which I mean that each participants' interactions or attempts at interaction can be more effective, and more effectively managed, for both "speakers" and "listeners." In a political context, that means more effective politics, and, I would suggest, "safer" politics as well (I think the founding fathers rightly imagined ineffectiveness in politics contributed to its safety - full-on democracy can be very oppressive - but they also thought there might ways to compromise in this regard).
On that note, I don't think Hayek's main contribution was this stuff about price systems. I think the main one was the idea that non-market economies would lead to enslavement (i.e., "The Road to Serfdom"), i.e., that non-market economies could not be "safe." And that's why I bring up the notion of feedback. Monopolized markets are markets without effective feedback, and they are enslaving - they're "unsafe." Planning economies with extensive and effective feedback (which technology already allows) can be quite liberating, possibly not enslaving at all (open source is a good current example) - i.e, "safe." So the central characteristic of a system is not at all whether there is planning, but whether there is feedback, employed toward some notion of "safety." Ideally, a system is planned for the most effective kinds of feedback imaginable and achievable, but that's still planning. Don't plan at all, because you think planning is a bad thing, and you may get enslaved by its omission, and you might certainly find yourself participating in a system that's "unsafe" by (lack of) design.
In a country like the US, where our "plan" is "government of, by, and for the people," we should be doing what we can to faithfully and diligently working to make that plan a reality, instead of arguing that it just can't work because "planning" of a central nature is involved. To believe that no planning is better than some effective planning is nothing if not a religious belief; it's certainly not a rational position.
I think the truth is that American capitalists don't believe in America, and too many America Christians don't believe in Christianity. And that's just from taking them at their word. And that's a recipe for anarchy if there ever was one. We should then be careful what we believe in, or we might make it true.
November 15, 2007 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your opinion about the Internet simply doesn't fit with what I know of it's technical underpinnings, and I've contributed to them directly.
Dynamic doesn't mean "unplanned." In practice, we don't use fixed diagrams to manage networks. We use protocols.
DNS has always had as its intent to separate the human-accessible "names" of nodes on the Internet from the "numbers" the network itself uses for its fundamental node-to-node communications (i.e., the basic network-layer "Internet Protocol" - "IP," as in IP address, the number to which I'm implicitly referring). DNS was unfortunately rather static for a long while, but it can be very dynamic now. DNS is a plan, and in fact, a plan for how to control the Internet's dynamism.
DHCP is a similar plan, a formal and effective one. And it also achieves dynamism in network structure, at a lower level than DNS. So like DNS, it is only one of many such protocols.
TCP assumes an unreliable transport, but plans for it, and thus manages in most cases to achieve sustained reliable communication between endpoints.
The underlying point of the redundancy inherent in the Internet was a plan, to make it survivable in the face of widespread failure, e.g., as a result of attacks on the physical infrastructure. In that respect, it was modelled after (i.e., planned) the Interstate Highway system, which was imagined both as a redundant network of lanes of commerce, but also as a redundant network for military command and control.
The telephone networks, which have been digital (using PCM) since the '50's, have planned even more for "stability." SS7, the signalling protocol suite long used (until the recent advent of packetized telephony over the Internet, i.e., "VOIP") provides for live failover of network components even in the absence of traffic, something IP-based networks still can't provide, with the target of what's called "5 9's" (99.999%) or better reliability and availability. I've implemented some of this protocol suite for particular situations, so I know what is it, and why it is. Cell phone "roaming," among other things, is implemented using this signaling protocol suite and its descendents.
Ever heard of a "FISU"? When you know what a FISU is and what purpose it serves, you will know something about "network instability" in practical terms. But to describe it as anarchy is to not understand what it actually is, in real, technical fact.
It may be true from some perspective that the essence of a network is its instability; I would put it differently, that the essence of an effective network is is ability to accomodate instability and remain (or become) effectively stable. And I hope you would agree that stability and dynamism are different things (I would use the term "robust" instead of "stable", to capture what I mean, since I know that a network can be both robust and ever-changing, i.e., "dynamic").
November 15, 2007 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dynamic, ever-changing, not stable or fixed. That sounds like anarchy and chaos to me.
I'm not suggesting the protocols that make up the Internet are unplanned. They are. The technical underpinnings are planned, the protocols are fixed.
I am suggesting that the network, the "thing" that is created from these communication protocols, is much closer to anarchy. The network as a whole is much greater than the sum of its parts. Reeds Law.
It's like a swarm of ants.
November 15, 2007 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's why I said it's as close to anarchy in information dissemination as we'll get - at least until some new technology comes along. Of course there is control and planning of the internet - I can't think of a single method of information dissemination that doesn't have some level of control, what I object to is Sunstein's theory that more control of information dissemination on the internet is necessary for our democracy to survive.
Information is power and the more a government controls information the more power it has over its citizens. We now have more access to better information than we have had in the past without leaving our homes with a modicum of interference by our government and institutions. Will it in the future be subject to more government control? Probably, I can't think of any information dissemination method that hasn't sooner or later fallen to the powers that be. In my own personal opinion, it is the patriotic duty of every citizen to find means to circumvent these controls as quickly as possible - that Sunstein wants to add another layer of control, no matter how benign he thinks it is, is dangerously misguided and foolish.
As to Sunstein's use of Hayek to bolster his opinion, well, I want to be fair here, but taking a quote out of context and claiming that it supports his position is disengenuous at best - Hayek actually says in that essay the exact opposite of what Sunstein claims he is saying, and he is saying it in reference to business decisions, not political decisions.
I have nothing against good planning - I do however, have something against government or institutional control of information. I believe that the closer we get to functional anarchy in distribution of information the better we can plan and organize our affairs as individuals and as a nation. Governments that control and hide information from citizens are always up to no good and this administration is an excellent example of how dangerous this is when taken to an extreme.
November 15, 2007 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
JohnOneOne, after thinking about it, I'm pretty sure that I've never heard Jesus called a socialist or have ever met a socialist Christian. Just the opposite probably, as represented by Michael Novak, who likes to 'root' himself in capitalism, democracy, and moral purpose because, A person in business works in a form of human community which at its best exemplifies a relation between person and association that Christian teaching has always tried to inspire. In this instance, his test case is on Xanadu and is so convoluted that I've yet to make it all the way through. If you read it, I'd be interested in knowing what you think.
The separation of the economic from the social has always been my main gripe with neo-classical economics, but it was another of my intuitive things. (I didn't know I was in such good company as you and Einstein until tonight.) So, if I've got this halfway right, the way capitalism seems to explain human motivations in the social vs individual sense is based on a person either 'sacrifices' himself for the good of the group (man is not an end to himself), or each person may live his life for his own happiness as an end to himself (wealth as private property).
The latter is the formal law of the land even though we have become totally dependent on society and it's production of goods for survival in our urban and suburban landscapes. So instead of being a protective asset, society is what then also threatens our individual and economic rights and eventually the destructive forces between them cripple our social consciousness.
This was a lot to take in, but are we on the same page so far?
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 16, 2007 2:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect that the marriage between Christianity and the Right may be something specifically American. Many so-called Christian parties exist in European countries and they are rarely associated with the extreme right.
I don't know if Jesus was a socialist but today he would certainly be seen as extreme leftist radical. I believe The The's lyrics "If the real Jesus Christ were to stand up today / He'd be gunned down cold by the C.I.A." got it exactly right.
Throughout the history of Christianity, especially the first one and a half millennium, there were several very radical leftist popular movements which used Jesus and his teachings as an argument against church and state establishment (which in turn called them heretics of course). For instance the Cathars completely rejected the Old Testament, and later 'heretics' and reformation forerunners like Wyclif and Hus also emphasized Christ's teaching as part of their "leftist" social critique.
What all that means to me... is that the Bible is so self-contradictory and open to interpretation that it is next to meaningless. Anyone can find justification in it for just about anything.
November 16, 2007 4:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Capitalism is and economic system and I don’t think is has anything to say about establishing social relationships.
Capitalists reject your either/or conjecture in that they believe that an individual who sacrifices himself for his own success also sacrifices himself for the good of the group since he must provide the group with goods and services that they want and need in order to be successful.
While socialism might produce a better society, capitalists do not think that individuals are motivated to sacrifice themselves for strangers that they will never meet in a large society. So, until the social fabric can be knit together by some bond other than economic needs, socialism will not result in economic prosperity.
November 16, 2007 7:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Capitalism is and economic system and I don’t think is has anything to say about establishing social relationships.
Someone here hasn't read his Marx...
November 16, 2007 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I am not a student of Marx, what am I missing
November 16, 2007 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
RB, straight from capitalism.org
Capitalists reject your either/or conjecture ...
From the same site -
Edited to add: And here is Einstein's On Socialism essay that refutes capitalism in favor of socialism.
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 16, 2007 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
That social being has everything to do with capitalism:
Even without Marx, look at the way consumerism is completely intertwined in our culture and our politics. It seems to me that capitalism is everything and everywhere, not just banished to the economic corner.
For example, what is Blackwater doing in Iraq? If that's not the triumph of capitalism over the polity, I don't know what is...
November 16, 2007 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know that the site you cited is the athorative word on capitalism.
I am not enamored by celebrity. Einstein made great contributions to physics, that does not make him an athority on economic systems.
Can you be specific about what you disagree about in my comment?
November 16, 2007 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe we are just talking about a “chicken or egg” issue here.
Your seem to imply that capitalism transformed an otherwise altruistic society into greedy, self interested consumers. Capitalists claim to have adapted an economic system to fit existing human nature. Would people in society not desire consumer goods if the means of production were owned by the state, or would consumer goods simply be made unavailable?
Is capitalism everywhere or is the human desire for a better more comfortable material life everywhere, regardless of the economic system that delivers it?
November 16, 2007 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
“For example, what is Blackwater doing in Iraq? If that's not the triumph of capitalism over the polity, I don't know what is…”
This has nothing to do with the economic system, Problems with Blackwater have to do with oversight and rules. We out source production of military aircraft to privately held companies. Is that “the triumph of capitalism over the polity”?
November 16, 2007 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I was just letting you know the sources of the information I had used that you disagreed with. :-)
If you read Einstein's essay, he talks about his authority. (It's not that long, and if nothing else, gives you an idea of capitalism's competition.)
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 16, 2007 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I find interesting is that JohnOneOne was able to make his case for a socialist Jesus easily. Novak, on the other hand, goes through these excruciating exercises that end up making no sense to explain Christianity and Capitalism.
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 16, 2007 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not suggesting society was altruistic beforehand, but capitalism certainly transformed society into one based on consumption, more than anything else.
It's certainly not "human nature" to purchase goods. That's a completely learned and artificial system, an abstraction from human nature.
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
November 16, 2007 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The significance in Blackwater isn't simply one of rules, or outsourcing parts production.
Here we have a private army, running lawless in Iraq. A privatized army, paid for by the citizenry, with no accountability, shrouded in secrecy (would people really know Blackwater without the recent incident killing Iraqi citizens?), one that also works domestically, patrolling the streets of New Orleans, armed and ready.
Outsourcing the military, accountable not to the Commander-in-Chief, but to the CEO. Yes, this is capitalism triumphant.
November 16, 2007 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say again, it is an oversight problem, not a problem with the economic system. Is there any reason to believe that if everyone worked for the government in a socialist system that there would be no errors in a military action.
November 16, 2007 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are socialist systems not “based on consumption”? It seems that the planners in such systems are constantly trying to determine the needs of the population and planning for its production by state owned means of production. Now there may not be as much consumption since there is a shortage of goods to consume, but it is not clear to me that socialist societies do not hava a desire for material goods.
It may not be human nature to “purchase” goods, but it is has certainly been human nature to aquire material goods by some meand to make ones life more comfortable ever since we were hunter/gatherers.
November 16, 2007 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be nice if you could articulate your own arguments.
November 16, 2007 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you assuming FISU over dual physical SSCOP links? I usually think of network instability as at least the network level, rather than things of link-local scope. BGP, and the associated support mechanism, deals with an unstable environment, where the tables never truly converge.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
November 16, 2007 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Consumption here has a very specific meaning. Hunter/gatherers consumed, but they were not "consumers."
And material goods in our society aren't really a product of some kind of determination of needs. The market, fueled by a need for profits, lubricated by advertising, actually creates needs. You can't really be arguing that we're only looking to make life comfortable with our consumer choices -- we're beyond comfort.
November 16, 2007 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are naive if you think that people in our soceity do not really want the goods and services they consume.
If you are making the argument that the central planners in a socialist economic system can restrict access to good and services that they deem excessive, you are correct. I am not sure that would make a better society.
November 16, 2007 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Socialist systems do not necessarily infer state ownership. There can be worker owned, community owned, or different types of mixes of the above owned, for just 3 examples.
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 16, 2007 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Blackwater would be a Socialist organization if the ex-military employees own the company (maybe they do)?
I don't think that most people would agree with your definitions. If a group of private citizens can profit by the ovwhership of the means of production it's not socialism.
November 17, 2007 7:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
You slay me, Robert. Earlier, you rudely wished that I would articulate my own arguments, instead of showing my sources for them. The problem here is that the two times I have articulated my arguments, you have told me I am wrong both times.
Let me take a wild ass guess, Robert. You are a capitalist conservative/Republican that prefers uninformed opinions, but only when they agree with your own.
Good luck with that approach in TPM Cafe. You'll need it.
Socialism:
What you need is sustained outrage...there's far too much unthinking respect given to authority. Molly Ivins
November 17, 2007 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, what it might also demonstrate is that socialism is way out of date, and capitalism is a modern improvement long postdating a Jewish carpenter of the Roman Empire period.
November 17, 2007 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't find it intellectually stimulating to correspond with those who agree with me.
Rest assured, I will call you out if you say something that I disagree with whether it offends you or not.
Your definition of socialism corresponds with mine, private ownership of the means of production (capital) is illegal.
Yes, I think capitalism is a superior enonomic system to socialism for large diverse societies.
November 17, 2007 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have little doubt Novak would be among the individuals that Jesus threw out of the temple :-)
November 19, 2007 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
And as he's throwing, he's muttering to himself that the lepers were easier. :-)
“Some say we need a third party. I wish we had a second one.” Jim Hightower
November 19, 2007 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
We wander from our topic, but that's the way of these discussions.
(Memekiller): "I'm saying, yes, truth is illusive, we are all susceptible to our biases, humans have an ingrained need to conform, and a remarkable ability to lie to themselves. Which is why I find these rightwing loonies who attack the credibility of anyone who's not a true-believer and selling the Kool-Aid because they can't accept that you could both, say, fight for your country AND not be a Republican."
And vice versa: socialist loonies who attack the credibility of anyone who's not a true-believer, because they can't accept (for example) that you could be both compassionate AND skeptical of arguments for your local violence dealer (the State) as the supplier of charity (welfare), pre-college education services, or pensions.
A decent point. We all accept larger gaps in the evidence and logic of an argument which seems to be moving toward a conclusion with which we agree than in an argument which goes against our preconceptions. ALL of us.
(Memekiller): "Malkin doesn't care if Kerry got shot at in Vietnam. He's a Democrat, and must be destroyed, whether we find something, distort something, or make it up, it doesn't matter. What matters is what we make the facts say."
I don't read Michelle Malkin often, but that's unfair. Dunno 'bout her war blogging, but she's not a reflexive partisan on other issues. Malkin complained when John Lott promoted his defense of concealed carry laws through sockpuppets.
Did John Kerry get shot? I understand he put himself in for a purple heart or three, but I understand that none of his injuries required hospitalization. Then again, I wasn't there.
November 20, 2007 5:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why does this self-congratulation get a "5" from anyone?
November 20, 2007 5:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
(JohnOneOne): "Capitalists make the huge mistake of conflating markets with capitalism..."
Who, then, are "capitalists"? Does this mean that advocates for the system of private property, title, freedom of contract, and State enforcement, through courts, of contract are NOT "capitalists"?
(JohnOneOne): "...when what they more likely mean to do is equate unregulated financially-based markets with capitalism, i.e., networks for exchange devoid of policies for exchange (from a CS perspective, such is ridiculous; of course, some may add "we want laws" - particularly contract law - but such law is nothing if not central planning)."
If --that's-- all that's intended by "central planning", most Chicago School economists would have no objection to central planning.
(JonnOneOne): "...I put the distinction differently. Markets are mechanism, and yes, they are widely and generally useful, since one might in fact term any communications network a "market"; but the distinction between capitalism and socialism is not about mechanism at all (e.g., markets vs. central planning) - it's about motivation: profit vs. social benefit, or finances vs. public welfare, or however else the idea of motivation for economic activity might be stated."
Then the distinction evaporates. Motives are invisible. "Profit" is a bookkeeping term: the difference between total revenues and total costs. In an organization which has no line in it's balance sheet for "profit", all revenues must be attributed to "costs". This says nothing about the motives of employees of an organization.
(JohnOneOne): "Hayek was right at some initial level of observation but wrong in his conclusions."
At one time, Paul Samuelson considered Hayek's paper "small beer", but he changed his mind.
November 20, 2007 6:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
You will find that almost no one on this site rates based on the merits of the comments being rated.
November 20, 2007 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
(Robert Brown): "You will find that almost no one on this site rates based on the merits of the comments being rated."
So it seems. It occurs to me that we have in this evidence which relates to Mr. Sunstein's thesis. Hayek's article describes the price system as a feedback mechanism which incorporates a broad array of information about resource requirements and preferences. Political markets, insurance rates, and betting pools do something similar.
When people form political alliances (e.g., within a corporate bureaucracy in support of one or another rising star) are they not "betting" on their chosen horse, the candidate to whom they can attach their careers? Political activists do something similar. Political parties are marketing organizations for candidfates. Ideology is the special sauce which keeps the customers coming back. Party activists function analogously to cooks and counter help at MacDonalds, but their stake is greater. The MacDonalds cook can always quit and work at Wendys.
Anyway, market bubbles indicate that the price system isn't perfect (nobody ever said it was). Persistent bad political policy (e.g., the US State-operated school system, in my opinion) is the political equivalent of a market bubble, in that feedback failed to correct it.
The ratings applied to comments often amount to "high fives" to people who agree with the person giving the rating. This differs from prices in that money spent on X is not available to spend on Y, while evaluators of comments can dispense as many "1"s and "5"s as they please.
Dunno where I'm going with this, so I'll stop here.
November 21, 2007 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you have it about right.
The commenters on this site are primarily interested in having the ideological narrative they have signed on with verified, not challenged and they rate each others comments accordingly.
November 21, 2007 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, there remain some that will rate a comment on its eloquence and creativity, even if there is an ideological disagreement. When I think of William F. Buckley Jr., my first image is of his unique raising of a single eyebrow, and then the way he might choose to express that nonverbal communication in his prose. Buckley sometimes is far too fond of the polysyllabic response, and violates Churchill's advice that the most effective commentary is from the gut, not the intestines.
If, for example, one was to disagree with me, and even with an ad hominem, I still would rate highly an insult with the style of Churchill, never forgetting John Randolph of Roanoke: "He shines and stinks, like a rotten mackerel by moonlight", or Vinegar Joe Cannon responding to a declamation of "I'd rather be right than President" with "You, Sir, are in no danger of ever being either."
There are people here that will question and explore their own assumptions and conclusions drawn from them, and appreciate the same courtesy from others. There are others whose rhetoric rises not far from "you doo-doo head", or play any number of cliche cards rather than address the substance of an issue.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
Nancy, Lady Astor: "Winston, if I were married to you, I'd put poison in your tea!"
Winston S. Churchill: "Madam, if I were married to you, I'd drink it!"
November 21, 2007 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, of course there are a few commenters on the site who are open to challenges to their world view, you among them, but I think that vast majority are looking for affirmation of the world view that they are already vested in. That is just fine as long as one understands how the rating system is being used.
November 21, 2007 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I gave it a 5. You'd have to be a part of the larger conversation here to understand why it gets a 5. You would have to understand what sorts of things we typically get from Mgmax and what we typically get from cscs. I don't feel bad about it. In any case, the ratings are not and cannot be objective.
November 23, 2007 7:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
They could be a who lot more objective if you did not decide who you like and who you don't like and rate accordingly regardless of the content of the comment. sounds like a high school clique instead of supposed adults.
November 23, 2007 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like you earned yourself a 1. I guess that's just how things go. And no, they wouldn't be more objective.
November 23, 2007 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I really have no issue with the "unproducitive" ratings for discussing the rating system on this thread as it is wildly off topic.
That is an objective use of the rating system...much different than rating someone based on whether or not they are in your clique.
November 23, 2007 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're hung up on the motives, cscs. Truth is where you find it, and that's sometimes in some pretty strange places.
November 26, 2007 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink