Why Another 9/11 Book?
My mother recently asked, “Honey, what exactly makes your book different than any other 9/11 book?” Nothing like a zinger from your own mother to get you thinking.
So here are my five most important findings.
Finding #1: Organizations, not individuals, were the root cause of failure
Most 9/11 books have focused on the personal drama of failure. It’s all about individuals, whose hair was one fire, who was sitting “at the center of the storm,” and the political battles they won and lost. But I’ve come to believe this emphasis is misplaced. And it’s dangerous because it suggests that a few pink slips can fix what’s broken in U.S. intelligence.
The real problem is worse. It’s called bureaucracy. Why were 19 terrorists able to kill 3,000 Americans? Because U.S. intelligence agencies never adapted to the end of the Cold War and the rise of a new enemy. In particular, the CIA and FBI were —and still are—hobbled by organizational structures, cultures, and professional incentive systems that didn’t give them a fighting chance against al Qaeda.
Consider this: Nineteen days before 9/11, the FBI began a manhunt for Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi, two of the hijackers who flew American Airlines 77 into the Pentagon. But the search was given to just one of the FBI’s 56 U.S. field offices, labeled “routine,” the lowest priority level, and handed to an agent who had just finished his rookie year. This wasn’t a screw-up. It was the natural product of the FBI’s longstanding organizational weaknesses.
The Bureau’s structure was so decentralized, insiders joked that the FBI consisted of “56 field offices with a headquarters attached.” In the FBI system, every case was assigned to one lead office for investigation. This made sense during the Cold War, when the dominant mission was responding to local criminal priorities. But it ensured that what should have been a nation-wide terrorist manhunt was instead the focus of a few people. What’s more, the investigation went to the bottom of the pile because FBI culture had always prized catching criminals and investigating past crimes more than finding potential terrorists and preventing future disasters. And it was assigned to a junior agent because of his inexperience, not despite it. In an organization where convictions made careers, finding potential terrorists went to one of the office's least seasoned investigators because it was one of the least desirable jobs.
Finding #2: There were more missed opportunities than previously known
Several of the agonizing missteps and missed clues before 9/11 have been well publicized. The 9/11 Commission lists ten on pp. 355-56. I found several more buried in declassified documents and testimony before Congress and the Commission, for a grand total of 23 (11 missed by the CIA, 12 by the FBI). The recently declassified summary of the CIA’s own 9/11 review suggests there may be even more.
A couple of my favorites:
The FBI’s July 2001 Phoenix memo, which warned that bin Laden might be sending terrorists to train in U.S. flight schools, listed a primary subject who turned out to be an associate of hijacker Hani Hanjour. But the subject was never successfully investigated by the FBI before 9/11. Why? Because as luck would have it, he was outside the U.S. when the FBI tried to find him—and FBI procedures strongly encouraged special agents to close investigations once subjects were determined to have left the country. Intelligence officials now believe the subject may have reconnected with Hanjour in the summer of 2001 as part of the 9/11 operation.
Twice in the summer of 2001, FBI Acting Director Tom Pickard called the heads of all FBI field offices to warn them about the heightened threat of terrorist attacks. This was a golden opportunity to pulse the system and put pieces together. But instead of asking field offices for information or analysis about potential plots, Pickard directed them to have their evidence teams ready to deploy. Steeped in Bureau culture, the nation’s top cop was focused on responding to an attack, not preventing one.
Finding #3: Hindsight ain’t so biased.
Intelligence officials often complain – with good reason—about the danger of hindsight bias. Warning signs often seem obvious only after disaster strikes.
In this case, however, the historical record shows that BEFORE 9/11, intelligence officials and policymakers understood the terrorist threat and the dire need for intelligence reform, but failed to get the changes they believed were needed. Terrorism, for example, made the CIA’s top threat list every year starting in 1994, when the assessments were first made public. Between 1991 and 2001, a dozen major unclassified reports issued 340 intelligence reform recommendations. I spent two years tracking what happened to them, and found that almost none were implemented before 9/11. The vast majority – 268 to be exact—produced no action at all. In retrospect, these recommendations were right on target. Eighty-four percent focused on the same four crucial deficiencies (information sharing, coordination, prioritizing missions, and human intelligence) that the 9/11 Commission and Congressional Intelligence Committees highlighted after the attacks.
Finding #4: Intelligence reform isn’t impossible, but it’s close
Intelligence reform is languishing now for the same reasons it failed before 9/11: no organization changes easily from within; reform is a political loser for the president because it requires battling his own defense department; and our fragmented federal government makes legislative reform even more difficult. As 9/11 Commission Executive Director Philip Zelikow said, “the most powerful interest group in Washington is the status quo.”
Finding #5: Conspiracy theories are alive, well, and baseless
9/11 conspiracy theory books sell. A lot. And I get conspiracy theory questions nearly every time I lecture about my book. So for the record: I found not a shred of evidence supporting any kind of Bush administration conspiracy. Apparently, however, that may make me part of the cover-up cabal.












The real problem is worse. It’s called bureaucracy. Why were 19 terrorists able to kill 3,000 Americans? Because U.S. intelligence agencies never adapted to the end of the Cold War and the rise of a new enemy.
Perhaps they still haven't. One could argue that the Bush Middle East foreign policy is dominated by the idea that US interests are best served by weak, divided, stressed and conflict-ridden Muslim states, even if those same conditions are a contributing factor in promoting terrorism.
November 5, 2007 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm... as far as my civil liberties go, the last thing I want is a streamlined intelligence community with no bureacracy to reign in its capabilities. Given the sweeping powers they've been given since 9/11, about the only thing that keeps the intelligence community off people's backs are the rules and procedures that create bureacratic entanglements.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
November 5, 2007 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is she right? Did the "intelligence community" "look at information about this"? I don't think so -- but am ready to be corrected.
And why not? We spend $40+ billion a year on intelligence, and nobody plays war games? Nobody uses his/her imagination? It's not only a problem of bureaucracy. The problem is institutional stupidity!
November 5, 2007 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
9/11 was traumatic, of course, but I do wonder about using the failures that led to the events of that day as a template for reform going forward. For instance, would the reforms proposed to avoid future 9/11s make it more or less likely to see the kind of intel gaps and failures we saw in terms of Iraq WMD assessments pre-2003?
We unfortunately don't have just one type of threat or adversary. It is not at all clear to me that the lessons learned from 9/11 would necessarily give us a better intelligence community overall, even if it might help lock this particular barn door.
Bernard Finel
www.bernardfinel.com
November 5, 2007 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lot of smart observations, and the point about hindsight as not being so pejorative is sharp. On the culpability of individuals, though, I sure wish the promised second half of the 9/11 investigations, focusing on the administration's use, misuse, or willful ignorance of intelligence had gone forward. True, there's a limit to what individuals can accomplish in an organization and a limit to individual blame in an organization, but there's also a limit to the bureaucracy's role in context of policy and policy makers. Or, as they say, something about rot from the top down.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
November 5, 2007 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know. I've got a bee in my bonnet on this issue, but by way of Nicholas D. Kristof just to remind everyone --
1. 1974 Sam Byck hijacks plane intending to fly it into White House to kill Nixon.
2. 1994 Algerians hijack plane so they can crash it into Eiffel Tower.
3. 1994 Tom Clancy publishes Debt of Honor.
4. 1995 Interrogated, Abdul Hakim Murad, a pilot trained in the United States, discloses plan for a suicide airplane attack against CIA headquarters.
5. 1996 Iranian terrorists reported to have planned to hijack airliner and to crash it into Tel Aviv.
6. 1996 Tom Clancy publishes Executive Orders.
7. 1990s Numerous al Qaeda members reported training as commercial airline pilots: Abdul Hakim Murad, L'Houssaine Kherchtou, Essam al-Ridi, Ihab Ali Nawawi.
And pretty much all it takes to prevent the hijacking is a secure flight deck door.
November 6, 2007 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Finding #5: Conspiracy theories are alive, well
Even the "accepted 9/11 story" relies on a set of conspiracy theories: the incompetence conspiracy; and the foreign extremists conspiracy. Each failure is probable but the collection of failures seems totally improbable.
and baseless
it took a lot of time and effort to prove the world was round and not flat. because 9/11, itself, isn't that important in our lives, the "official story" will probably stick but the government will lose people's trust-- just like what happened after Katrina.
Apparently, however, that may make me part of the cover-up cabal.
no, you simply don't have the curiosity to investigate what really happened on 9/11; i.e. many people won't spend a single moment of their lives thinking about 9/11 conspiracies including the ones penned by the 9/11 commission.
In my case, Iran/Contra is why I stopped believing the government since Nancy Regan was telling kids "say no to drugs" while her husband peddled drugs to them with the help of the CIA.
When I was listening to Bill Clinton today, he reminded me of WWII when people discussed the "final solution" but, this time around, "extreme muslims" took the place of "jews." Bill Clinton also talked about "resource depletion" and Germany, like the US, had that problem before WWII.
So, I think it's very reasonable to suspect that 9/11 "was an inside job" because motive existed. add to that the myth of a "just war" and you have another motive for 9/11-- it provided an apparent "moral basis" to clothe naked ambition.
November 6, 2007 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink