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For Successful Mideast Conference: Freeze Settlements, Dismantle Checkpoints

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It’s still looking like the international Middle East conference will take place in November at the Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. It’s a good venue, providing Camp David-like security and easy and fast access to Washington, DC. Should peace break out, Mahmoud Abbas and Ehud Olmert will be able to get to the White House within an hour to announce it with the President at their side.

You shouldn’t hold your breath.

Nonetheless, it is beginning to appear that if the conference actually does take place, progress will be made. The reason is that neither Israelis nor Palestinians will attend a conference without a guarantee that each will be able to claim success afterwards. Similarly, the last thing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice -- and the Bush administration at large -- needs is failure.

There is ample good reason for not convening a conference unless success is a near certainty.

Back in 2000, PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat warned the Americans and Israelis that he was not ready for a summer summit. He needed more time to decide what he wanted, to confer with the other Arabs, and, in general, to get his house in order.

President Clinton tended to agree. But at Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s insistence, the Camp David conference went ahead anyway. Its failure led to the replacement of a relatively stable situation (virtually no terrorism) to four years of violence and thousands of deaths. The consequences of the failed Camp David summit are still being felt seven years later.

In other words, it is safer to pass on a conference than to raise expectations that will not be met. That is why, right now, Israelis and Palestinians are striving to agree on an accord over final status peace talks that could be endorsed during the conference.

The problem is that the Palestinians want an explicit framework agreement that addresses the key final status issues (borders, Jerusalem, refugees, etc) -- with a timetable for implementation -- while the Israelis want a more ambiguous broad brush joint statement.

Prime Minister Olmert’s reluctance to go for a more detailed agreement is not indicative of a lack of trust in President Abbas. Rather it is an outgrowth of his shaky political situation. Even if he did promise Abbas everything Abbas wants, Olmert would not necessarily be able to deliver and the Palestinians know it. Nevertheless, Olmert is determined that Abbas not go home empty-handed because he wants to strengthen Abbas not undercut him.

Speaking before the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee last week, Olmert said that the current West Bank Palestinian leadership wants “to make peace with us, advocate a two-state solution and support the fact that Israel is a state with a Jewish character. If we do not make peace with them, we will not make peace with anyone. I identify an opportunity here that will not recur. If we do not succeed this time, we will kill and be killed for a great many years to come."

The bottom line is that the Palestinians are pretty much where they were in January 2001 when, at Taba, the two sides were on the verge of an agreement when the clock ran out (Bush replaced Clinton and Sharon replaced Barak). And Olmert is near there as well.

This is all good. But it does not mean that an agreement will be reached especially when the Israeli right is already screaming about the idea of “dividing” Jerusalem. This is sheer demagoguery. No one proposes dividing anything. In fact, the last thing any Palestinian wants is a city in which they cannot move freely from one part of Jerusalem to another. Moreover, Palestinians know that no Israeli would even contemplate dividing the city; the city is undivided and will remain so. All Abbas wants, and all Olmert is considering, is shared sovereignty which should be no big deal – except to those who want the conflict to continue indefinitely.

Nevertheless, Olmert may not be able to offer Palestinians much in terms of final status issues now. Hopefully, Israelis and Palestinians will be able to agree on a set of final status principles that will govern future movement toward an agreement and keep the negotiations going. But there must also be tangible changes on the ground, changes which people can feel. In particular, these must be actions which will strengthen President Abbas and a Palestinian leadership that is committed to peace with Israel. There are two obvious moves that fit the bill.

One is an immediate and indefinite settlements freeze. For Palestinians, a settlements freeze is what an end to terrorism is for Israelis. It is the sine qua non for further movement and the test of good faith. After all, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are about the final disposition of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. Expanding settlements on those lands during negotiations over their final disposition is like eating the vegetables out of the bag while the grocer is weighing it.

And yet that is what has happened since Israeli-Palestinian negotiations began in 1993. Since then, the number of settlers has grown from 110,000 to 270,000 (over 400,000 if East Jerusalem is included). Every additional settler represents an additional impediment to the possibilities of reaching an Israeli-Palestinian agreement (which is one of the prime motives for the whole settlement enterprise).

Then there are those settlements and outposts which even the Israeli government deems illegal. It was back in June 2003, at the Aqaba summit, that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon pledged to remove them. Since then a total of four have been removed with 100 still in place (more than at the time Sharon pledged to remove them all). They all should come down immediately. That was the recommendation of the report on illegal outposts requested by Prime Minister Sharon and written by leading Israeli jurist Talya Sasson.

As for the “legal” settlements -- i.e. settlements sanctioned by the Israeli government -- an immediate freeze is probably essential if the November conference is to succeed. In fact, Amr Moussa, head of the Arab League, said today that the Arab states will not even attend the Annapolis conference if there is no freeze.

The other action the Israelis should take is to remove redundant and unnecessary checkpoints in the West Bank. There are now some 500 checkpoints, many of which are located not on the border between Israel and the West Bank but deep within the territory, serving not to guard Israel against terrorism but to separate one Palestinian village from another. These checkpoints make Palestinian life unbearable. The purpose they serve is basically to facilitate movement by settlers while cramping and restricting the lives of the local population.

No one suggests removing any checkpoint which is essential to Israel’s security. However, any checkpoint that does not serve the purpose of protecting Israelis from terrorism should be taken down. Removing these unnecessary physical obstacles to the free movement of Palestinians would greatly strengthen Abbas and the forces of moderation he represents.

Neither of these steps would represent great sacrifice for Israel. And yet each of them would buttress those Palestinians determined to live in peace with the Jewish state and help advance negotiations on a final status agreement.

One last point. The media is reporting that all bets are off if Hamas or any other terrorists resume suicide bombings or terrorist acts in general. If a major bombing occurs, no conference.

How absurd. These reports essentially tell the terrorists that they hold a veto on negotiations. What kind of message is that?

Rather, they should receive the opposite message. It is that no matter what the terrorists do, the conference will go on and opponents of terror will work to achieve an agreement. If Hamas rejects violence, it too can join the process and benefit from it. But it should not be led to believe that killing more Israelis will end the negotiations it fears and help destroy its worst enemies -- Abbas and his fellow moderates.

One of the main purposes of negotiations is to defeat the terrorists. It’s not the other way around.

 


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As I said in previous threads, removal of exclusive Israeli control of Jerusalem means the DESTRUCTION of Jerusalem. Whereas you may be right that Arab residents of Jerusalem might not want the barbed wire, minefields and anti-sniper walls that existed before 1967, what they want is of no importance to the terrorist leaders (see what happened in Gaza since HAMAS took over). Jerusalem, without exclusive Israeli security and political control will become like Baghdad, Belfast or Beirut---a destroyed city. This week Meron Benveniste, veteran post-Zionist journalist and former deputy mayor of Jerusalem, in his column in Ha'aretz said clearly and unambiguously that the Arabs of Jerusalem DO NOT WANT TO LIVE UNDER PALESTINIAN RULE, and want to remain under Israeli rule (this does not mean that they don't hate Israel, it is just that they view this as the best deal they can get).
(Ben-veniste's views on Israel are close to those of MJ so this should carry special weight with the readers of this blog).

Bush, after destroying Iraq, now seems set on bringing hot war back to Israel as well. This conference is a farce, and is forcing people into takings stands that will antagonize a LOT of people on both sides, and still will not bring about an agreement. Olmert will have no choice but to offer EVERYTHING, including withdrawal to the pre-67 lines, division of Jerusalem, including handing the Jewish holy sites over to the Arabs, and he will get nothing in return. Truly bizarrre.

I agree that the conference is a farce, and I don’t think it will have any impact in the end either way. Unfortunately, I don’t think peace will ever be negotiated with hardliners like Olmert and appeasers (in Pal. eyes) like Abbas.

They can't even decide who, where, and when to have this conference. Certainly the Bush administration, in spite of chirps from Condi, have shown no interest in diplomatic solutions. Even Daddy doesn't care if no one gets married at this shotgun wedding. I doubt that any of the Israelis, Palestinians, Americans or Arabs view this conference as a serious diplomatic effort.

…while the Israelis want a more ambiguous broad brush joint statement.

The conference is just more keep-the-staus-quo anyway. It is a continuation of the strategy to isolate Hamas and legitimize Abbas. Gaza is isolated and hemmed in. Dividing the WB up continues apace (creating a group of mini-Gazas). The idea that no agreement will cause an eruption of violence doesn’t follow though. I-P are not at peace now, simply because it is mostly Israel as aggressor who has clamped down on the WB and secluded Gaza.

 

Prime Minister Olmert’s reluctance to go for a more detailed agreement is not indicative of a lack of trust in President Abbas. Rather it is an outgrowth of his shaky political situation.

Both Olmert and Abbas could not be any shakier. And I don’t think Ehud Olmert or Eliot Abrams gets to choose who speaks for the Palestinians. Abbas is not the legitimate leader of the Palestinians no matter how many countries pretend otherwise. Any deal that Olmert could compel (which he can’t) on an illegitimate Abbas would be seen as capitulation and would not stand the test of time.

I disagree with Don about Olmert. I think he'd go for a deal but, like MJ says, the crazy right, the Russians, and the Orthodox will shoot down anything that looks like peace.
Also, Bush is too stupid to do what Carter did and Clinton tried. I doubt he could find Jerusalem on a map.
MJ makes a good point about J. Sharing Jerusalem does not mean dividing it. In fact, it's divided now. Sharing it would unify it.

I’m not saying that Olmert wouldn’t try to get what looks like a deal (that doesn't address the sticking points) with Abbas, as MJ is saying. But Olmert has no political capital and Abbas’ political capital is only monopoly money. I think any deal would just be a photo op that would only continue the status quo anyway. A real deal would never take because parties on both sides wouldn’t go along. I agree that is a good point about Jerusalem. I wonder if, in the end, Jerusalem will be the place where accomodation is easiest. The right of return, for both sides, is where things seem unsolvable.

I would be genuinely pleased to be wrong but this conference is doomed to fail.

It twould be wonderful if Israel agreed to dismantle its 'illegal' settlements, if it froze all settlement activity and if it dismantled checkpoints and if that then allowed Abbas to sign a peace treaty that led to a viable two state solution. Two problems with this scenario. First Israel may agree to the three ifs but we all know that they will never carry them out. They have agreed to do so too many times before to expect them to change now. Second, Abbas represents only a fraction of the Palestinian people. No peace agreement will be viable if Hamas is excluded. And we know that Rice and Bush insist on this condition. Saudi Arabia knows this; that is why they tried to involve Hamas.

MJs optimism seems like another pony hunt.

You are probably right but hope springs eternal.

Bush is too stupid

Reality is not intended for We, the Citizens of America.

If any analysis has any consideration of the “stupidity of Bush” or
if it questions the administration’s capability or results, it is
a conclusion based on disinformation and propaganda.

The results we see are the goals of the administration.

Any other analysis and results are false
and the result of intended propaganda.

Please make a note and keep the above
in front of you at all times.

-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking

I can't recall anymore remember for how long this whole question of the "settlements" has been at issue. But I do recall wondering, from the first I became aware of it, why on earth, if the Israelis really wanted a lasting peace/resolution to their conflict, would they continue with these settlements and their expansion? I really do not understand.

From my perspective, the settlements have always represented a growing obstacle to peace since those who live in these places are bitterly opposed to moving out once they've moved in and their growth only means increasing infuence for those who wish to remain in Israeli domestic politics.

MJ, can you explain to me, was there ever a time when reasonable people really thought the settlements were a good idea? I'm no mideast expert and like (I think) most Americans want to see a safe, secure Israel at peace with its meighbors, but the settlements issue has always mystified me. It's alway seemed more a provocation than anything else in my perception.

Let's set the scene.

The Israelis are warning of a large invasion of Gaza....maybe after the meeting.

Avi Dichter is harrassing the Egyptians by insisting that they could stop the smuggling into Gaza in one day if they wanted to. Yeah sure Avi. That's why that silly idea of building a moat has been floated at the highest levels of both governments. It's suggested the US taxpayers fund it.

Food and medicines are running out in Gaza. Hamas wants te negotiate with Fatah but the puppets are forbidden by their masters in DC and TA to do so.

Things are getting worse in th WB too thanks to needless and increasingly abusive policies imposed there:

"The Israeli government is a lying government that is out to destroy the Fayyad government and the peace process," said Ashraf al-Ajarmi, PA minister of prisoner affairs.

The minister said this in response to the Internal Security Ministry and Israel Prison Service's decision to prohibit the delivery of sweets to Palestinian prisoners for the Muslim holiday of Eid il-Fitr.

This is the first time since 1967 that Israeli bodies prevent the Palestinian government of delivering sweets to prisoners.

snip]

The minister said that even during the period of the Hamas government Israel allowed the entry of sweets to Palestinian prisoners. He said that over the past few weeks Israel has been making it hard for him to pay for and arrange a kiosk for the prisoners.

"The Prison Service's legal advisor said the money, that is meant for a kiosk, encourages terror," he said.

snip]

Al-Ajarmi said that despite promises he had received from Internal Security Avi Dichter regarding possible concessions toward the prisoners, "the Israeli government is doing everything in its power to make things difficult for us".

"They (Israelis) talk about helping the Rais (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas), but making every effort to embarrass and weaken us to prevent the advancement of the peace process, this in addition to the daily raids on Palestinian towns, the targeted killings and the roadblocks that they refuse to remove to this day," he said.

According to Al-Ajarmi, the Israeli government "has not taken any step to help the efforts of Fayyad's government to improve the economic and security situation in the territories".

The minister said Israel has recently begun attempting to influence the content of the Palestinian matriculation exams. "Israel is forbidding exams in physics and chemistry under the claim that they would contribute to terror activity," he said. "What good is a diploma without these subjects?"

Al-Ajarmi said the prisoners issue could have a positive affect on Palestinian public opinion, but "instead the Israelis remain rigid on this matter, which could lead to violence in the prisons that may beget violence throughout the entire Palestinian Authority."
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3458934,00.html

Do our congresscritters think that it's a good idea for the Israelis to forbid Palestinian kids to study Chemistry and Physics?

Do they even know what the hell is going on in the OT? Do they care? O' great patriots and true believers in democracy and human rights that they are.

The complicity of my government in this crap is an outrage.

I understand that Mr. Rosenberg has the power to censor posts he doesn't like. Let's see if he'll allow this one.

Mr. Rosenberg says:

"Back in 2000, PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat warned the Americans and Israelis that he was not ready for a summer summit. He needed more time to decide what he wanted, to confer with the other Arabs, and, in general, to get his house in order.

President Clinton tended to agree. But at Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s insistence, the Camp David conference went ahead anyway. Its failure led to the replacement of a relatively stable situation (virtually no terrorism) to four years of violence and thousands of deaths. The consequences of the failed Camp David summit are still being felt seven years later."

Mr. Rosenberg blames the Second Intafada, not on the thugs whom Arafat was too cowardly to restrain, but on (1) the most dovish Prime Minister in Israel's history, Ehud Barak and (2) Bill Clinton who pushed harder for a lasting peace than any U.S. President before or since. That will surely be a comfort to the families of dead Israelis killed by the bombs which those thugs planted at a Passover Seder and in the cafeteria of Hebrew University in 2002.

I'll just bet that, if we stopped wasting any more money on the middle east, that 'peace' would break out pretty quick...

The "settlements" as you call them (i.e. Jewish communities in Judea/Samaria) were NOT started by the "political right" in Israel, they were started by the Labor Party who was in power during and after the Six-Day War. A couple of months after the war, the Arabs met in Khartoum and issued their famous "3 Noes" saying there would be no negotiations or peace with Israel (I forgot what the third was). Up to that point, Israel was willing to give up almost all the territories in return for peace agreements with Jordan, Egypt and Syria (Jerusalem was considered to be a different story). After Khartoum, the Israeli gov't allowed the first of the settlements to begin to be built (or acually REbuilt)- Kfar Etzion. This was a kibbutz that existed BEFORE the 1948 War of Independence. In 1969-1970, Jews began to build up "Jewish" Hevron, (just outside of Hevron) called Kiryat Arba. Hevron ALSO had an ancient Jewish community which suffered a massacre and expulsion in 1929.
Everyone seems to forget, Jews lived in Judea/Samaria and Gaza before the creation of the modern state of Israel. Every single Jew in those territories was either killed or driven out in the period 1929-1948.
Jews returning to their ancient homes was considered natural, even by the leftist Labor Zionists. There was an almost across-the-board consensus in Israel that there would be no return to the pre-1967 lines (the lines peacenik Abba Eban called "the Auschwitz lines"), and so these settlements were not viewed as a problem.
Later, after the Yom Kippur War, SHIMON PERES, yes, SHIMON PERES spearheaded an expansion of the settlements in Samaria in response to the crisis in confidence in the country resulting from the Yom Kippur War. Peres put out a book in his name as late as 1979 in which he said it was unthinkable that Israel would give up Judea and Samaria because if they were handed over to the Arabs, they would turn into a hothouse of terror (remarkably prophetic statement by the man, but he later realized you don't get Nobel Prizes for building up and strengthening it, only for tearing it down).
There you have it in a nutshell.

You shouldn’t hold your breath.

I'm tempted to add: "or waste it."


Sorry MJ--I admire your devotion to this issue, but I fear the only thing more futile than discussions about the so-called "peace process" is the peace process itself.

I basically agree. But if we get a Democrat like Obama, Biden or Richardson in there, things could change.

Please explain why any of those three Democrats could make things change. Has Obama told you anything that would indicate he will press Israel to make concessions which its democratically elected leadrers--including Labor Ministers in the Cabinet-- consider dangerous?

. . . and if we can only stop relying on fossil fuels and reverse global warming, maybe hell will freeze over . . .

(Just kidding--I really do hope you're right)

As if Israel and the Palestinians don't have enough problems, there's nothing that can't be 'solved' by a quick bit of Cowboy Diplomacy, especially given the deep, nuanced and evenhanded view of the ME that Bush and Rice have--riiiiight...

otoh, perhaps there is some promise to be found in Bush's recent proclamation that 'Childrens do learn!'

I assume any Democrat will implement the Clinton Parameters i.e. West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem will constitute a Palestinian state.

And they are not "concessions." Concessions imply that these lands are Israel's which they are not. Not a single government in the world recognizes Israel's control of them as legitimate and neither does Israel's Labor Party (even Barak, as far right as Labor gets, is putting the squeeze on the settlement blocs right now).

Not to worry, Obama has told me nothing. I infer that he would do the right thing. That's all. Also, that as a man whose father was African, he hates all forms of colonialism. But I'm just guessing and hoping.

MJ-I challenge you to name me ONE Arab who says Israel's settlement called Tel-Aviv is "legitimate".
Labor Party of other Leftist politicians who say Tel-Aviv is "legitimate" whereas Hevron and Beit EL are "not legitimate" are simply hypocrits. They may claim that anything over the Green Line (1949 Armistice line) doesn't "belong" to the Jewish people or Israel but NO ONE in the world, except for the Israeli Left recognizes the Green Line as any sort of international border. The Palestinians do NOT recognize the Green Line as a border in that the will not recognize Israeli sovereignity inside of it...this is manifested through their demand for the phony "Right of Return". If they can force Israel to accept outsiders in whom they don't want, that means they don't recognize Israeli rule within that territory. In any event, the Green Line does NOT demarcate in any shape or form and limitation on Jewish rights to settlement in Eretz Israel. Before 1948 and the creation of Israel, Jews lived CONTINUOUSLY, for centuries in areas over the Green Line such as Hevron, Shechem (Nablus), Jenin, Gaza, and later in Gush Etzion and other places. NO ISRAEL GOV'T HAS THE RIGHT TO ABROGATE JEWISH RIGHTS IN ANY PART OF ERETZ ISRAEL.
I can understand if someone says "Yes, we Jews have a historical right to live over the Green Line but for practical reasons we should compromise and give it up for the time being", although I disagree, but it is honest, for for them to phrase it as MJ does, that Jewish settlement in the historic heartland of Eretz Israel is "not legitimate" is simply false anad itself, illegimate, null and void.

The PLO in 1988 recognize the legitimacy of Israel within the '67 lines. That has been its position since then. Unless I'm mistaken Tel Aviv is within the '67 lines. Not an illegal settlement!
It's the crazy settlers who don't recognize Tel Aviv as legitimate, not the Palestinians.

of course, the Israelis have no legit claim on any land in the mideast. However, at this point, were they to treat their neighbors as they would wish to be treated, it might eventually lead to acceptance of their claim to the land they stole. It looks like their present goal is to steal as much more land as possible, so that when the scat hits the windmill they will be able to claim a larger portion that they were originally given (without the consent of the inhabitants).

There is no place in their present policies for success, however, it is doomed for failure.

It seems I start to hear the glimmerings of dissatisfaction in the USA political scene for the crimes Israel is committing. Israel might be wise to consider US support temporary, and begin to make friends with their neighbors. I doubt that will happen, They will continue to cry "holocaust!" at the merest hint their policies against Palestine are unjust, just like GWB brings up 911 every time he wants to take away our civil rights, and torture more people.

I wonder if Americans will ever come to view our support of Israel as one of the sources of terrorist attacks? If it does, hmmm....

Freeze Settlements? How about move back within your borders? I have a checkpoint.... no one can pass that believes they have a right to take things that don't belong to them. Lets put up that checkpoint.

I was thinking that with Hamas temporarily out of the governmental picture that this might be the time to hammer out a deal between Olmert and Abbas. Then I started thinking -- and reading the reaction of the Israeli right and the Palestinian left/islamic wing. Then I thought about the need for strong and smart US leadership. My conclusion is that holding a peace conference during this administration is extremely dangerous because it has shown itself unable to manage negotiations of any kind and because it continues to come from an ideological/absolutist position. Instead, each side should make specific and reciprocal actions and stand behind them.

I disagree. Clinton is the next NEOCON choice. if you want to see GW's policies go forth, vote for her. If you want change, listen to Ron Paul.

For Palestinians, a settlements freeze is what an end to terrorism is for Israelis. It is the sine qua non for further movement and the test of good faith.

It's worth asking why this should be the case.  Logically it makes no sense.  Why should the Palestinians, who need a deal way, way more than Israel does, let the settlements issue derail the peace talks? 

Think about it.  If the Palestinians were to say, in effect, that they accept there will be a Jewish presence in the West Bank, even under Palestinian administration, it would immediately have the effect of taking the wind out of the sails of the obstructionist right.  They would know, in a way that is much clearer than it is now, that expansion of the settlements will not necessarily derail a final territorial settlement.

Instead, they imply that if there is to be final deal, the West Bank will need to be Judenrein - that is, completely free of Jews.  This is simply never going to happen, barring the complete destruction of the state of Israel.

Presumably the Palestinians know this.  So the question has to be asked.  Why are they letting the settlements question ruin their chances for peace?  If I were to speculate, I would have to say that if any Palestinian leader were to make such a pronouncement, they would immediately grow a big fat bulls-eye on their forehead.

Abbas is not the legally elected leader of the Palestinians. Fatah did receive the majority of Palestinian votes. That the Palestinian consitution allowed this outcome due to the fact that Fatah ran multiple candidates in districts and split their own votes does not remove their moral authority as the group with the support of the majority of Palestinians.

Actually, the Palestinians don't say they want all the Jews out. They say that Israelis can live in their state under the same status as Arabs do in Israel. In other words, they live in the West Bank but under the Palestinian flag, utilizing Palestinian courts, etc: completely parallel to Palestinians in Israel.
Several Orthodox rabbis have said they are fine with that.
It sounds far-fetched, ofcourse. But in the context of negotiations, if both sides genuinely want a deal, anything is possible.
Without real sincerity on both sides, nothing is possible anyway.
In any case, Abbas, like Arafat, has conceded that the settlement blocs will remain anyway. That is where the land swaps come in.

...of course, the Israelis have no legit claim on any land in the mideast.

I'm generally considered to be pro-Palestinian here at TPM Cafe (although I would instead define myself as being pro-peace), so I understand the frustration with the Israeli actions which have harmed the Palestinians and obstructed efforts toward peace. But, while you're correct that the Israelis have indeed been trying to make use of the facts-on-the-ground gambit to ensure as much land as possible remains theirs in any eventual settlement, the claim that the Israelis had no legitimate claim to any land just isn't accurate. There has been a continuous Jewish presence in the ME for centuries, long before the creation of Israel. Although there are many idealistic reasons for wishing that a single non-sectarian state had been formed at the time of the partition, as the arabs had been promised by the British, the fact remains that it wasn't, and there is absolutely no likelihood that such a state could be successful at this time.

Where the problem arises is that legitmate Jewish historical presence for most of the time preceeding the creation of the Israeli state represented only a small percentage of that of the arab population of Palestine. A massive Jewish immigration occurred in the first part of the 20th century, in response to very real horrors occuring primarily in Europe. So while the creation of Israel was justified from the Israeli perspective, it was unjust from the perspective of the Palestinians. These two different perspectives on the conflict are rarely recognized as existing concurrently, the partisans of either "side" generally selecting one or the other to promote to justify their own claims. The truth lies somewhere between the two extremes.

Whatever the actual facts of the historical record may be, neither the fact of a continual presence, nor the 2,000 year old claim of a Jewish presence in biblical times, justify the additional appropriation of land that had been Palestinian for centuries. It's not Israel's legitimacy that should be questioned, but the Israeli opposition (and that of anti-peace Israel "advocates" in this country) to the legitmate aspirations of the Palestinians for a viable state of their own.

"If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail." ~~ Abraham Maslow

Yes, Fatah would have won a majority parliament- if they hadn't lost it. So, what the hell, dismissing the elected government is okay then.  Most of the Hamas legislators are in jail anyway. But here is a closer look at an August poll promoted by JMCC that was supposed to show support for Abbas' unelected government (from electronicintifada):

Overall, 26 percent of Palestinians under occupation said the Fayyad government should be "canceled" and the national unity government (which had been headed by Haniyeh) restored to office (21 percent in the West Bank and 34 percent in Gaza). Only 17 percent thought the Haniyeh government should be "canceled" so that Fayyad could rule over the West Bank and Gaza (18 percent in the West Bank, 16 percent in Gaza). Read another way this suggests that just 17 percent of Palestinians under occupation view the Fayyad government as being the legitimate authority. A majority of Palestinians wanted to see a return to dialogue and national unity -- a rejection of Abbas' intransigent refusal to talk to Hamas. [snip]

If the poll shows weak support for Abbas and Fayyad (and great disaffection with all political factions), it shows outright rejection of Abbas' capitulationist approach to peace negotiations with Israel. Canceling the right of return, allowing Israeli settlements to stay, and giving up most of Jerusalem in exchange for a Palestinian statelet on a fraction of the West Bank are reportedly at the heart of the "agreement of principles" that Abbas is negotiating with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Almost 70 percent of Palestinians under occupation, according to the poll, adhere to the right of "return of all refugees to their original land." Another 12 percent envisage the return of only some refugees to their original lands. Just seven percent of those polled agreed with the position that no refugees should return home at all.

Obviously, Abbas doesn't represent the Palestinians. 

Your post (unsolicited)does not answer the question I have which was directed at MJ--not you. Your use of the word settlements in quotation marks and the phrase "as you call them" (as though that isn't what everyone calls them and has for years) and the general tone of your post is combative for no reason at all.

I am looking for a reasonable answer to a reasonable question. That's all. You may be exactly right, I don't know, but the tone and tenor of your post alone casts doubt on it because it seems like just another highly emotional response wherein you score your points, but little else is accomplished.

One of the things I find most frustrating about any discussion involving Israel is that it becomes increasingly difficult to hear and understand important facts and points as a result of all the noise and static caused by the exraordinary emotions behind much of what is said. I don't know you or who you are. I only know what I see of you on MJ's posts and that leads me to believe you are so highly invested in one side of this question and one outcome that what you have to say is necessarily tainted by that investment.

I wasn't aware that you objected to "unsolicited" responses. However, what I wrote is historically correct. If, however, I made an error, I would welcome MJ weighing in and correcting me.
You are right about one thing, I am not neutral on these matters.

Although I don't know what the exact wording of the PLO's 1988 declaration was, it was presented to their own people as "recognizing the fact of Israel's existence". The Palestinians have NEVER officially recognized the right of the Jewish people to self-determination in Eretz Israel. After Oslo was signed, the problem came up about the "PLO Covenant" that said Zionism was invalid and all Jews who came after 1917 would be forced to leave, and the PLO Covenant overrode any other declarations Arafat or other heads of the PLO made. Arafat was asked about it and he said the clause that contained this statement was "caduc" in French. Then began a big discussion about what this meant. To Westerners and Israelis it was said to mean IIRC "annulled" (although Arafat didn't have the power to annul anything in the Covenant). To his own people he said it means "not currently enforceable" or some such phrase. Netanyahu then demanded that the PLO formally change the Covenant, leading to the farcical meeting of part of the PLO's official governing body (that met something like once every 20 years) that Clinton attended in Gaza. I don't recall the details but a vote was taken and the clause was supposedly cancelled, but then it was pointed out IIRC that the vote was not taken by a legal quorum, so nothing really changed. As I understand the clause is still listed in the Covenant as presented in FATAH's web site, although I heard this second hand and didn't check myself. Of course, HAMAS doesn't accept any of this.
The problem arose again at Camp David when Barak demanded that in return for Israel handing over the Har HaBayit(Temple Mount) in Jerusalem, Judaism's holies site (which people wrongly think is the Western Wall), Arafat would accept a declaration that although the Palestinians would have sovereignity over the Har HaBayit the Arabs would recognize that the Jewish people view it as a holy site. Arafat categorically refused, saying Islamic history teaches that the Bible is a fraud, and Judaism is a fraud, and they would never accept any false Jewish claim to the place. As I understand this led to a famous shouting match between Clinton and Arafat, but Arafat, after telling in Clinton in private that he would accept it, he came out and told reporters that he wouldn't. I believe it was either over this matter, or the Palestinian "right of return", or both, that Arafat told Clinton that he would be assassinated if he made any concessions (I guess he can dish it out but he can't take it!).
Thus, we see the Arabs do NOT recognize Israel's right to exist, they only recognize their own right to struggle against it continually, even if there is some sort of peace agreement (as both the Palestinians and Egyptians have done), until Israel is (G-d forbid) eradicated.
Recall that this is what former Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami stated in the excerpt I posted here some time ago. Ben-Ami's views on Israel are close to MJ's but he acknowledged the truth of what I stated here.

Oleeb, actually reasonable people never thought they were a good idea. The Labor (moderate) governments that governed Israel until 1977 consistently opposed them. Settlers, led by the messianic lunatic Rabbi Moshe Levinger, came up with the idea of sneaking people into the West Bank and then refusing to leave. It was all done by stealth, lies and quite illegally.

Later when the right took over in 1977, settlements were okayed. But only after the fact.

Bottom line: few reasonable person ever thought they were a good idea. But reasonable people were, to their regret, too afraid to stand up to the extremists. THey never have to this day.

Read the definitive book: "Invisible Empire" by Gershon Gorenberg.

Au contraire oleeb:

The dialogue on this thread has been as good as it gets, and I think MJ and just about all posters, bar kochba included, deserve kudos. The notion that bar kochba or anyone cannot or should not direct a poster, even when that poster directs someone directly, is a "rule" or protocol I am not aware of at the TPM Cafe. The additional notion that emotions can always or even should be divorced from this topic is flawed at the core I submit.

I want to thank MJ and others on here for a rather informative and civil discussion this time, one which I have learned from while perusing it comfortably from the back seat.

Bruce

Thanks MJ. I really do appreciate your response!

It isn't that I object to a response per se. It's the manner in which you respond. It detracts from what you have to say.

I wasn't commenting on this thread. I was commenting on a particular response. I'll grant you that the level of hysterics doesn't reach the usual volume in this particular thread. I just have grown very weary of the high level of emotions both from those who believe Israel can do no wrong and from those who hate Israel, Jews and everything associated with them. I'm just sick and tired of the righteousness and self-righteousness on the subject which is all too often malignantly dominant in any discussion of Israel or associated subjects. To me, that kind of thing is just shouting and does nothing to advance any kind of genuine discussion. So when it comes at me in response to a question I've asked--even though it isn't as over the top as these things usually get, I still don't appreciate it. I didn't say it was a rule or protocol or any such thing as you seem to assume. It was simply unwelcome hyperbole. Something we could use a whole lot less of when it comes to Israel, Palestine, and moving toward peace in that region. I was looking for a response from MJ, who I think, is a pretty reliable source of information, precisely in order to avoid the kind of response that was posted.

Oleeb:

I hear you. I agree with you in particular that the self-righteousness of certain folks on both sides of these issues can be frustrating and counterproductive. FWIW, sometimes I might not know what I'm talking about, but I have learned not to be afraid to say that I do not have all of the answers. This is certainly true with respect to the Middle East and the I-P conflict in particular.

Also, fwiw, I do not always agree with what you post, but I do find your contribution valuable and a net positive to say the least. I hope you didn't think I was suggesting the contrary.

Bruce

MJ-then why did Eshkol's gov't approve the return to Gush Etzion shortly after the Six-Day War? Why did Moshe Dayan, Yigal Allon and Ben-Gurion support building the Jewish annex to Hevron called Kiryat Arba? Have you heard of the Allon Plan which was the Labor Party's plan for Judea/Samaria up until Oslo? It called for ringing the populated Arab areas along the central mountain ridge with Jewish settlements. How do you explain Peres opening up the Shomron to settlement in the 1970's? There is a famous photo of him planting the first tree in Ofra. True, Rabin was strongly oppposed to Jewish settlement in Judea/Samaria but he supported building Gush Katif in the Gaza Strip which his "right-wing" pal Sharon raized to the ground.
It is true there was significant opposition, and it is also true that there was pressure from below in the form of demonstrations, some of them illegal. However, up until 1977 many veteran Labor Zionists supported the Gush Emunim settlers and viewed them as the continuation of their own pioneering youth. This groups included ideologues like Rahel Yanait Ben-Zvi and Yisrael Galili. It was only starting in the 1980's, after the Labor Party lost power that they began to be consumed with guilt over their previous support for Zionism. Traditionally Zionism meant three things: settlement, security and immigration. They have since turned against the first and are indifferent to the other two.
The bottom line is that the settlement in Judea/Samaria/Gaza were supported, with some hesitation by the Zionist Left.

No problem. Just wanted to clarify.

Yes, there were good people who were wrong and failed to understand that the settler movement would be disastrous for Israel.
Shimon Peres played a particularly horrific role. Rabin, on the other hand, despised the settler movement and was murdered because he opposed their Greater Israel vision, not to mention their sheer thuggery.

What the Palestinian leadership may concede privately and what they declare publicly are often two very different things.  Plus you have to pay attention to what they say in Arabic, as opposed to English.  Arafat was famous for cooing about peace when he gave English interviews and then saying the exact opposite when he gave a speech in Arabic. 

Regardless, if the Palestininans actually do accept that Jews have a right to live in the West Bank, why are the settlements, as you say, such a red-line issue?  They shouldn't matter if the goal is actually to get a state established.

Why are you so credulous with regard to everything related to the Palestinians? 

MJ-would you, as a Jew, be willing to live under Palestinian rule? The Israeli Arabs and Jerusalem Arabs certainly don't want to.

I'm not responding to questions framed that way. Do you want me to ask why you are credulous vis a vis the Israelis.
With all due respect (seriously), I don't want to engage that way.

Maybe this is internet rumor or conspiracy theory, but I've read that the Camp David summit was sabotaged by Bush operatives who promised Arafat he'd get a better deal under Bush.

Your opening comment is very close to trolling.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Emet18.

"I understand that Mr. Rosenberg has the power to censor posts he doesn't like. Let's see if he'll allow this one."

Are you aware that this statement of yours is utter bullshit, and if not, why not?

For someone who so faithfully follows MJ, I can't help but wonder if you have invoked a chimera in order to premptively whine about a golem of your own devise.

It doesn't add to your credibility.

Why do you feel accomodation on Jerusalem would be the "easiest"? Do you think it is easy for the Jews to give up their holiest place? Or the Arabs their 3rd holiest place?
Westerners tend to dismiss considerations like these, but they are vital to a lot of other people.

Actually, if you are interested in what happened regarding Rabin's murder, I suggest you look the following places...
(1) To find out whom Yigal Amir was hanging out with and influenced by in the months before the murder, see the official Shamgar Commission report.
(2) Read Leah Rabin's Autobiography to see what the SHABAK repeatedly told her immediately after the shooting.
(3) Read this interview with Rabin's Daughter in the "La Isha" magazine in 1999

Reference:
"HA'OLAM HA'ISHAH", Issue 193, November, 1999, page 21 (I will be glad to send a transcript to anyone who asks for one)

(4) Read about the murder of Leningrad Communist Party Boss Sergei Kirov in 1934.


This link to an article in the Jerusalem Report (a center-left publication) gives a summary of some of the points in the above list:

http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/2527/press39.htm


I think that if you look at these sources, you will see that your summary of what happened to Rabin is somewhat simplistic.

Although I most often disagree vehemently with you, Bar-K, I uprated this comment in appreciation for your acknowlegement that Jerusalem is also holy for the Arabs.

It seems to me in such a situation shared sovereignty is the best, and perhaps the only workable solution, although I suppose that internationalization of the city also remains a possibility. The issue is certainly a more immediate one for those living in the region, but the city is holy to millions of Jews, Christians and Muslims, not only in the West, but throughout the world.

"If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail." ~~ Abraham Maslow

Bar,

Without a doubt, Jerusalem is a Christian city. The Pope should be mayor. Just kidding. Unfortunately, religious beliefs all around are at the heart of many conflicts. Personally, I don’t worship any holy place that I would kill or die for. If Jews and Muslims both believe they "own" this city because their ancient Temples are there, then I doubt there ever will be peace.

I was only referring to the political solution of sharing Jerusalem as part of a peace deal. Both sides want to claim it as their capitol. I don’t know what practical considerations that produces. Even though Israel controls it now, it doesn’t hold sovereignty over it. The two sides have, in effect, been sharing a divided Jerusalem and there would not be that much change in a shared Jerusalem, divided or undivided. The politics can always be worked out. IMHO, as long as it is Judaism vs. Islam, there will never be peace.

I don't dismiss the religious motivations but unless the states in conflict are theocracies, they are engaged in achieving a political settlement. Legally and ethically, I don’t see how Israel has any claim on sovereignty of Jerusalem at all. Occupation does not bestow ownership to the occupier. Under the partition, it was to be Palestine’s capitol but an international city. I just think that Jerusalem can be worked out with some loose arrangement (each side as caretaker of its area) if the parties ever get close to an agreement. I think the sides are an ocean apart on the question of refugees.

bar.

Has the campaign to free Yigal Amir begun yet?

It's so interesting that an American billionaire/millianaire who is "anonymous" to everyone but the JPost has conceived and funded this multi-media extravaganza. I think the name of this group of worthies is sooooooo, well, American. The "Committee For Democracy" and the slogan for the postcard portion of the campaign, "A time for peace, a time for reconciliation. A time to free him," sound positively Frank Luntzian. The film-to-come featuring the potential harm a live Rabin could've caused and a bio of the young hero should be quite appealing to some.

What a proud moment for certain elements of the American Disapora! Why the author of this piece of work wants to keep his identity shrouded in darkness certainly is puzzling.

I realise that the conspiracy theorists who profess the innocence of Yigal most likely won't be impressed by the analysis of a mere woman. But, believe you me, it's doubtful that the lovely Larissa Trembobler would be scheduling the birth of their son for the anniversary of Rabin's murder if she didn't want to honor the contribution of her beloved husband to Israel's security.

Brad - Having spent a lot of time in the West Bank settlements, I can assure you that when Israeli politicians give a talk there, their Hebrew is a LOT different than what we would hear here in English. It happens on BOTH sides of this conflict.

I had understod in a previous discussion that Mr. Rosenberg unilaterally censored Daniel Gereenbaum's posts. If that is not the case, then I am pleased to be corrected on that point.

"...neither does Israel's Labor Party....

Complete nonsense. In 2000 and early 2001 Barak and Bill Clinton pushed for a peace treaty that would have specifically allowed Israel to retain certain settlements like Kyriat Arba in return for giving the PA unused land that is now inside the '67 borders. Arafat rejected it and made no counter-offer.

Actually , it was the SHABAK and the Prison Service that decided the date (i.e. the gov't). No doubt it will help the turnout at the annual demonstration in Rabin's memory.

Thank you. If you have read my postings on what I think the future of the conflict will be and how to reduce the violence to a minimum, I have pointed out that the Arabs view opposition to Israel as a religious/ideological principle. Of course, compromise with both sides meeting somewhere inbetween seems like a reasonable outcome, and I have also stated that the majority of the Israeli public would agree to this IF the Arabs would show a committment to ending the violence (I would still oppose it on ideological grounds, but I realize my position is not that of the majority regarding such a hypothetical occurrence). A Sadat-like visit to Jerusalem by Assad, Abbas, the King Abdallah's of Jordan and Saudi Arabia would go a long way to bring about such an attitude in Israeli public opinion. However, they refuse to do it because it sends the wrong message back to the home folks. This is why Arafat told Clinton that he would be assassinated if he did not demand full sovereignity on the Har HaBayit (Temple Mount) and/or ( I don't recall) full implementation of the so-called Palestinian "right of return".
It is this ideological hard-line on the part of the Arabs that makes the conflict so intractable.

The Shabak and the Prison Service did not time the lovely Larissa Trembobler's fertility treatments nor did they make her appointment with the hospital for the day of the murder. Her choices include inducing labor or having a ceasarian section if nature doesn't deliver the goods in a timely manner.

Yes indeed, I expect the turnout and enthusiasm among the celebrants would be enhanced if things go as planned.

One thing gives me some cheer; the thought that Chief of Staff Ashkenazi is disgusted by those who would free Amir Yigal. It bodes well if he is tasked with removing the violent squatters who would kill a fellow Jew to further their aims. Perhaps Sharon's blunt assessment that there are "Jewish terrorists" among the faithful will further his understanding that they are indeed, enemies of the State.

Emet18.

"I had understod in a previous discussion that Mr. Rosenberg unilaterally censored Daniel Gereenbaum's posts."

Does it make sense that Mr Rosenberg would then choose to ignore your own contributions?

Unfortunately, Mr Rosenberg can and does delete whole threads if he wishes to do so.

Well, if Sharon says so, it must be true. Just like his promise that the first war in Lebanon would not extend more than 40km north of the border.
The irony is, is that his Leftist friends accused him of "incitement to murder Rabin" as well. Just ask Yossi Sarid. So who are you going to believe? Do we draw the line at the "terrorists" that Sharon denounced, or do we include Sharon in that list as well, and everyone else who denounced Rabin before the murder, just like I and hundreds of thousands of others did as well?

Can you give me an example of a Jew, who when being evicted from a settlement, killed another Jew? Or is it just your's and Sharon's gut feeling that they exist?
(I suggest you recall David Ben-Gurion's statement about Sharon: "His biggest problem is that he lies too much").

Large majority of Jews in Israel opposes handing any part of Jerusalem over to the Palestinians. Also opposition to any return of even a small number of Palestinian refugees to Israel.
This poll is by the Steinment Peace Center and I have found their polls are honest and not made with leading questions in order to get the answer one side or another wants.


http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/913237.html

bar.

Has the widespread removal of settlers in the WB started yet? That's the real test of whether the extremists among your compatriots will wage war against the IDF.

So basically, your argument against Sharon's statements about Jewish terrorists is to call him a big ol' liar? You had better add the ADL to your list of liars as they don't shy away from applying that label to certain groups and individuals, either.

What about Gush Katif? 26 communities raized to the ground, 8000 people expelled from their homes. NO VIOLENCE.
Yes, Sharon was a big, corrupt liar . I worked as a volunteer for his election because he promised explicitly NOT to destroy Gush Katif, and yet he betrayed that promise without getting a public mandate by calling elections or a national referendum (he did call a party referendum which he lost and then said he would do it anyway after promising to honor the results). I have every right to despise him.
What about all the lies he told the gov't about his adventure in Lebanon?
Sharon was a lying, deceitful politician and would spew out any lie from his mouth to advance his interests. Don't you know any other politicians like that? Do the terms "WMD" and "Iraq" ring a bell?

You're comparing Gush Katif to the WB? Give me a break.

What is your thing with Sharon? Do you think he's the only politician who lies or has correctly labeled Jewish terrorists as such? Is it your position that there are none among the extremist settler cadres?

"Do the terms "WMD" and "Iraq" ring a bell?"

This cracked me up since much of the "intelligence" on Saddam's chem/bio weapons capability came from Israel. Ever heard of Shlomo Brom? I can send you a link to his 11/03 analysis of the exaggerated junk that was passed around between Israel, the UK and US. To Israel's credit, they refused to go along with the Saddam hearts Bin Laden nonsense.

No doubt, Sharon was a piece of work and also no doubt he would not have started the stupid summer war.

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