An Open Challenge to Shellenberger & Nordhaus
I know how to find out if we have genuine differences or purely rhetorical ones -- and to find out if you support the whole solution to global warming, or just your small piece of it.
Do you endorse Barack Obama's energy and climate plan -- details here? I do without reservation.
It combines your huge clean energy fund -- in this case "$150 billion over the next ten years to develop and deploy climate friendly energy supplies, protect our existing manufacturing base and create millions of new jobs" -- with all the regulations and mandates I think are critical to actually getting existing and emerging technologies in the market fast enough to save the climate (see below).
On the one hand, you write: "The regulation-centered approach won't result in the deep reductions in global carbon emissions that climate scientists believe are necessary to avoid catastrophic climate impacts." But you also claim "the effort to reduce and stabilize global greenhouse gas emissions will require a major regulatory effort to make sure that everyone is playing by the same rules, provide a stable investment environment for nations and businesses, and increase the cost of fossil fuels relative to cleaner energy sources."
I think Obama has laid out the necessary "major regulatory effort." Do you? Or do you think he has gone way too far, that he is too "regulation-centered" and that what we mostly need is breakthrough technologies with a little regulation? Here is what he would mandate:
- Carbon emissions to be “80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050” through cap & trade starting with a mandate “of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.”
- Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
- Require 25 Percent of Electricity to Come from Renewable Sources by 2025.
- Flip Incentives to Energy Utilities … by ensuring companies get increased profits for improving energy efficiency, rather than higher energy consumption.
- Implement legislation that phases out traditional incandescent light bulbs by 2014.
- Double fuel economy standards within 18 years
- Mandate All New Vehicles are Flexible Fuel Vehicles
- Increase Renewable Fuel Standard
- Obama will use whatever policy tools are necessary, including standards that ban new traditional coal facilities, to ensure that we move quickly to commercialize and deploy low carbon coal technology.
With regulations and mandates like those, I have every confidence that the money spent on clean energy technologies will be put to good use. Plus he pays for the $150 billion by auctioning all the carbon allowances -- another big plus in my book.
A number of people have posted that you ought to like his plan (see here and here). Do you?
If so, our policy differences are purely rhetorical. If not, then this is your chance to spell out exactly what regulations & mandates & standards you believe we don't need.
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So now, after making patently false claims about the substance of the book he's supposed to be reviewing, he's issuing "challenges."
Romm is turning a book conversation into a personal crusade against S&N. He's moved beyond critic to leveling intellectually dishonest misrepresentations. And he knows he's being dishonest.
For example Romm (see the comments in the post below) says that S&N propose a "technology-only strategy." Of course, that's in direct contradiction to what they propose in the book itself. If, instead of making things up, he actually looked at what is proposed in the book he'd find, on page 119:
"There is no doubt that the effort to reduce and stabilize global greenhouse gas emissions will require a major regulatory effort to make sure that everyone is playing by the same rules, provide regulatory certainty so that nations and businesses alike can play their investments, and increase the cost of fossil fuels relative to cleaner energy sources. But regulation cannot be the sole policy egg in the global warming basket, for without investments to encourage technological breakthroughs, we won't come close to achieving the emissions reductions we need to stabilize the climate."
So the propose marrying a regulatory approach to, among other things, "increase the cost of fossil fuels relative to cleaner energy sources" to an investment strategy to "encourage technological breakthroughs." Just like Obama.
In terms of substance, they propose $300B over ten years. Obama proposes $150B over ten years. But in terms of the need for both regulation and investment (as S&N clearly outline on page 119, and which Romm completely ignores), they're on the same page.
Of course, Joe is not at all interested in what they actually say in the book. In Romm's world saying "there is no doubt that the effort to reduce and stabilize global greenhouse gas emissions will require a major regulatory effort," means that you are opposed to "a major regulatory effort."
So here's my challenge to Romm: Stop making up your own facts. Stop making patently false accusations. And come clean to TPM Cafe readers:
Why are you deliberately misrepresenting the substance of the book?
Why are you claiming that S&N support a "technology-only strategy," when the very text of the book makes clear that your assertion is false.
Did you think that no one here would actually read the book?
And if you're going to make things up about a book (or not to bother reading it closely), why should we trust your "review?"
I hope the editors at TPMCafe take a good hard look at what Romm is doing here before offering him an opportunity to review another book.
October 10, 2007 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad they already wrote the book. Whatever poppycock they invent to refute you will have to go into the second edition.
Seems right on, market-friendly and only suitably excited.
October 10, 2007 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
DEBUNKING JOE ROMM, PART ONE
Joe Romm was supposed to engage in a book discussion about Break Through by Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus. Instead, he engaged in a sleazy sort of political hatchet job in which he knowingly misrepresented the substance of the book, and mischaracterized the authors to be anti-environmentalists who favor delaying action on global warming and oppose efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gasses emitted into the atmosphere. Both are patently false, and Romm either knows it or, given his academic and professional credentials, ought to know it.
First, Romm asserts that S&N support a “technology-only strategy” (his words) to deal with global warming, leaving readers with the clear impression that S&N support investments in technology but do not support regulatory action to limit GHG emissions.
This is a lie.
In fact, as noted on page 119 of S&N’s book:
“There is no doubt that the effort to reduce and stabilize global greenhouse gas emissions will require a major regulatory effort to make sure that everyone is playing by the same rules, provide regulatory certainty so that nations and business alike can plan their investments, and increase the cost of fossil fuels relative to cleaner energy sources. But regulation cannot be the sole policy egg in the global warming basket, for without investments to encourage technological breakthroughs, we won’t come close to achieving the emissions reductions we need to stabilize the climate.”
On cap-and-trade, they note (on page 120) “cap-and-trade -- could, if done right, generate billions of dollars in private investment for cleaner sources of energy. As such, it offers one of the best opportunities for environmentalism to evolve into a politics of possibility.” On page 121 they note, “cap and trade will likely drive much greater investment in cleaner energy development in the developed world,” which they say is, “necessary to get the emissions reductions we will need,” (although noting the need for investment to deploy clean energy technologies in the developing world).
Clearly, S&N do not advocate a “technology-only strategy.” They say some pretty favorable things about cap-and-trade and you can’t get much clearer than “the effort to reduce and stabilize global greenhouse gas emissions will require a major regulatory effort.” But that doesn’t stop Romm from saying they propose a “technology-only strategy.”
Romm then goes on to “challenge” S&N to “endorse” Obama’s energy plan saying that it includes cap-and-trade coupled with investment, precisely as the author’s call for in their book. Again, Romm is attempting to leave readers with the impression that they are opposed to the Obama approach, because, as he had previously (and erroneously) reported, they support an “investment-only strategy.” S&N do differ from Obama. They support a $300B investment over 10 years. Obama proposes $150B. But both Obama and S&N support cap-and-trade coupled with a significant investment. If Romm is so opposed to S&N’s approach, it’s not clear why he’s so excited about Obama’s.
Particularly for someone who wears his academic credentials on his sleeve, Romm’s intellectual dishonesty is troubling. But he doesn’t stop at making patently false statements about the substance of the book. He also attempts to link S&N to some of the biggest villains on the right. Romm says S&N are like “Bjørn Lomborg, Frank Luntz, George W Bush” calling them all “Deniers and Delayers.”
Again, because the authors propose neither delaying nor denying, Romm can offer no substantive proof that the authors hope, intend or desire to delay action on global warming. Interestingly, the authors gained prominence in 2004 for criticizing the environmental movement for not doing enough over the last few years to address global warming. On page 13 of their book they note that the “fourth truth about the crises we face is that global warming has arrived and will have increasingly serious consequences, even if we stop emitting all greenhouse gasses tomorrow.” Hardly denial, hardly saying we have time to waste. Their argument is not only different, but precisely the opposite of the argument offered by the “deniers and delayers.” The central premise of S&N’s position on global warming is that the regulation only approach doesn’t go far enough. We need to reduce GHG emissions (again, see the quote from page 119) they say, but they argue that this crises also requires us to start making a serious commitment to research, development and deployment of clean energy technology.
But perhaps the most intellectually dishonest tactic Romm purports to engage in is to use his professional credentials to discredit S&N, while essentially offering the same arguments to other audiences. As repeatedly documented above, S&N propose regulation coupled with investment in R&D and deployment. Romm says that promoting investment in R&D and deployment is a delaying tactic designed to, in his words, make it “sound like you care about global warming without actually doing anything about it.”
Yet in an article for Physics Today that Romm co-authored about emerging technologies to reduce CO2 emissions, he said, “It's clear that there are still many opportunities to reap gains in energy efficiency. Some technologies are already in the works and will be adopted in the due course of time. Other technologies will require R&D and may not come to pass unless a significant commitment is made to the required research.” http://www.aip.org/pt/vol-53/iss-11/p29.html. So when Romm proposes “a significant commitment… to the required research,” it’s in service of reducing carbon emissions. When S&N propose the same, its making it “sound like you care about global warming without actually doing anything about it.”
Additionally, in his own book, Romm proposes ten steps that can be taken to achieve necessary GHG emissions. Included in his proposal is the construction of 700 new nuclear plants, the deployment of the 1 million new wind turbines for electricity generation, and additional 500,000 wind turbines to fuel plug in hybrids, greatly increase the efficiency of power generation, and create 800 coal fired plants with carbon capture technology.
All of this will require either improving existing technologies, rapidly bringing existing technologies to scale, or making substantive infrastructure or deployment investments. Unless the price of carbon goes far beyond what the current proposals in Congress call for, it won’t happen without singificant investment. Romm says we just need 700 more nuclear plants, 1.5 million turbines and 800 coal fired plants with carbon capture technology -- yet he opposes investment in R&D or deployment? When S&N propose spending money on R&D and deployment, it’s the work of “delayers and deniers.” But, magically, when Romm proposes things that will require investment, it’s brilliant policy reverse climate change.
All of this begs the question as to Romm’s intellectual integrity and his motives for using his position as a book reviewer for TPM as an opportunity to blatantly mischaracterize the substance of the book. For the last few days, Romm has been on a tear, posting multiple posts “debunking” and “challenging” S&N. Last night, when I pointed out that he was lying, and provided a quotation from the book to prove it, he suddenly went dark. He hasn’t said a thing on TPM Café since then. Maybe he realized that he was mischaracterizing their argument, or maybe he was embarrassed to get caught engaging in the kind of intellectually dishonest tactics we often see from the right.
Either way, he owes an explanation as to why he has been engaging in this intellectually dishonest attack on the authors.
October 11, 2007 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have mischaracterized my position entirely. I never said S&N embrace a technology-only strategy -- please show me where I do. I merely said, in a comment, that I know the limits of such a strategy. I don't know why you keep repeating the S&N distortion that I oppose technology funding. Please show me where I say that. I guess you never actually read any of my writings.
October 11, 2007 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
deleted and moved by author
Jack
October 11, 2007 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on Joe, try to be at least a tiny bit honest here.
In response to a comment I made, in a discussion about S&N’s book, in a post you titled “Debunking Shellenberger & Nordhaus -- Part III,” you said:
”I am not an environmentalist, old or new guard. I am a clean energy expert. That's why I know the limits of the technology-only strategy.”
Later in that same post (a mere five minutes after you wrote the post above), you said, “I'm glad they moved off their original technology-only approach.” You are explicitly saying that they offered a “technology-only approach,” and think they “moved off” it in response to your criticism. The fact is, as documented repeatedly, their book does not propose a “technology-only approach” or a “technology-only strategy.”
Those are your words. And now you deny ever using them.
It’s a patently false lie, Joe. And you keep repeating it, even after I provided you the direct quote from the book it doesn’t look like you actually read.
Beyond those two clear statements that refute your claims of innocence, in your first “Debunking S&N” post, you lump S&N in with Bush, Lombourg and Frank Lutz and call them all “Deniers and Delayers.” You say that S&N are “touting the exact same strategy on climate as Michael Crichton, Bjørn Lomborg, Frank Luntz, George W. Bush and his climate/energy advisors” – and we all know the Bush administration’s position on emission limits. Again, you say they have the “exact same strategy” as Bush. All you have to do is read the book to know that’s not true. Again, another lie.
In “Debunking S&N II,” you say your “bottom line” is that “I can certainly solve the the [sic] global warming problem with smart regulations and no publically-funded [sic] breakthroughs, but I almost certainly cannot solve global warming with publically-funded [sic] breakthroughs but no smart regulations to get them into the marketplace quickly and at the necessary scale.” This is a post entirely devoted to “debunking” S&N, in a section devoted to a discussion of their book. If you’re not accusing them of “publically-funded [sic] breakthroughs but no smart regulations,” who are you accusing? Who else would your “bottom line” in a post “debunking” S&N in a thread devoted to their book?
But all of that not withstanding, you make clear in your “technology-only strategy,” and talking about “their original technology-only approach,” (not to mention saying they propose the “exact same strategy” as Bush), that they oppose regulation.
And that is patently false.
At least be man enough to deal with what you’ve said…
October 12, 2007 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I also quote you as saying, "“It's clear that there are still many opportunities to reap gains in energy efficiency. Some technologies are already in the works and will be adopted in the due course of time. Other technologies will require R&D and may not come to pass unless a significant commitment is made to the required research."
How is that saying that you oppose technology funding? My point is that you are attacking them for proposing precisely what you propose.
October 12, 2007 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mellow out, dude. They did have a "technology only" approach BEFORE the book came out. That was the whole controversy around the Apollo Coalition. "The Death of Environmentalism" attacks CAFE and regulation. NOW, they have stunningly embraced the Obama proposal, so now I see their entire argument is rhetorical, not substantive.
I never would have imagined they would shift position so dramatically. I'm glad they have moved -- it took a lot of criticism from people like me to get them to move.
You seem quite oblivious to the entire history here, so it is difficult to have an intelligent discussion. Their contribution to the debate has been quite counterproductive.
In particular, their over emphasis on the need for technology breakthroughs still plays right into the hands of Delayers like Bush and Lomborg who say we don't have the technology needed to fight global warming. My point is that the PUBLIC technology component is infinitely less important than the regulatory component -- which is the exact oppositeof what they say.
Also, your use of "sic" is weird. "Publically" is a legitimate spelling.
October 12, 2007 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought this was a discussion about S&N's book, not a forum to bring up debates from however many years ago and pretend it's part of the book.
Grind your axe elsewhere...
October 12, 2007 5:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a forum to discuss S&N's message. Yes, it is "news" that they completely reversed their position after needlessly antagonizing the entire environmental community. Not that they have stopped antagonizing people needlessly.
Their book is interesting only BECAUSE of the history -- otherwise it is a non-event with nothing original in it.
October 12, 2007 6:18 AM | Reply | Permalink