From Reagan to Norquist
I think everyone involved in this debate would profit from taking a look at Bruce Bartlett's recent history of "starve the beast" theory. I was particularly struck by this passage:
In an influential article in early 1976, Wall Street Journal editorial writer Jude Wanniski blasted [Gerald] Ford for timidity in cutting taxes. He argued that the nation needed each political party to be a different type of Santa Claus—the Democrats being the spending Santa Claus and the Republicans being the tax-cutting Santa Claus. By refusing to play its proper role and instead being the party of the balanced budget, Republicans had hurt not only themselves, but the nation as a whole. Declared Wanniski: “The political tension in the marketplace of ideas must be between tax reduction and spending increases, and as long as Republicans have insisted upon balanced budgets, their influence as a party has shriveled, and budgets have been unbalanced.”
Now Wanniski, as Jon Chait will happily inform you, turned out to be crazy - but this argument is distinctly non-crazy; indeed, I think it's largely correct.
The logic is spelled out in more detail in this quote from Milton Friedman, which appears further on in Bartlett's piece:
There is an important point that needs to be stressed to those who regard themselves as fiscal conservatives. By concentrating on the wrong thing, the deficit, instead of the right thing, total government spending, fiscal con- servatives have been the unwitting handmaidens of the big spenders. The typical historical process is that the spenders put through laws which increase government spending. A deficit emerges. The fiscal conservatives scratch their heads and say, “My God, that’s terrible; we have got to do something about that deficit.” So they cooperate with the big spenders in getting taxes imposed. As soon as the new taxes are imposed and passed, the big spenders are off again, and there is another burst in government spending and another deficit.
I remarked earlier that starve-the-beast theory has proven remarkably unsuccessful at shrinking the size of government. But it has succeeded, at least, at breaking the pattern Friedman describes, and as a result government spending has grown much more slowly during the long era of GOP dominance than during the decades previously (indeed, it's barely grown at all as a percentage of GDP). Given the trajectory of governmental growth in the rest of the developed world, this is no small achievement (or, depending on your view of government's proper role, no small crime). But the difficulty for the small-government side is that after three decades of success as the tax-cutting Santa Claus, the GOP has backed itself into a political corner: Just a knee-jerk devotion to the welfare state made 1970s liberalism incapable of adjusting to new political realities, the conservative obsession with tax cuts as the answer to any and all circumstances has bred inflexibility, dogmatism, and a reliance on the kinds of dubious economic argumentation that Jon's book fillets.
Think about it this way: In 1980, the face of tax cuts was Ronald Reagan, whose devotion to smaller government no one would question, but who was flexible enough to raise taxes in certain circumstances, and to tell the American public that his goal was not "to do away with government, but "to make it work—work with us, not over us; to stand by our side, not ride on our back." Today the face of tax cuts is Grover Norquist, a Beltway performance artist who brags about drowning government in a bathtub. What began as a majority-making insight - that the rich are the engine of American economic growth, and that overtaxing them both diminishes their economic liberty and diminishes everyone else's prosperity - has curdled into the minority-making zealotry on display in this Norquist quote, from his back-and-forth with Jon on TNR Online:
In the 1950s it was considered by too many acceptable for the state to discriminate against gays and African Americans. Now it is not. Back in those bad old days it was considered politically acceptable to target "the rich" and treat them differently than others. We are slowly moving away from tolerating discrimination based on economics just as we now reject discrimination based on race or sexual orientation. The drive for a single-rate, flat-rate income tax is the moral equivalent of the 1960s civil rights movement which rejected different laws for whites and blacks. Everyone should be equal before the law. The state must treat us without discrimination.
Jon would argue that this kind of nonsense defines the entire history of the post-1970s GOP. I would (respectfully) disagree. I think having the GOP as the party of tax cuts, rather than the party of balanced budgets, has been - all told - a good thing for the country, and I certainly don't think Republicans should give up their emphasis on keeping tax rates as low as possible. But to the extent that Chait's caricature is correct, and the Republican Party of today is the party of Norquist rather than the party of Reagan - well, to that extent, I think conservatism is headed for a fall, and deservedly so.















Diarhea
September 13, 2007 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, good Lord! Herbert Hoover here we come.
September 13, 2007 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
And how can we lesser types realize any prosperity except by way of the miraculous 'trickle down' - or is that overflow - of the prosperous rich? The 'trickle down' that 'raises all boats', unless your boat is stuck in the mud at the bottom of the sea, where it will stay no matter how much the sea rises.
September 13, 2007 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
"and as a result government spending has grown much more slowly during the long era of GOP dominance than during the decades previously (indeed, it's barely grown at all as a percentage of GDP)."
Government spending has slowed, but so has average wage growth. They are both results of the upwardly redistributionist policies of Republicans. Concertrating wealth in fewer and fewer hands is immoral politics and bad for the overall health of the national economy, no matter what Milton Friedman says.
September 13, 2007 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ross is obviously downplaying the influence of Norquist. And yet so many Republicans sign his anti-tax pledges, so many Republicans go to his Washington meetings, and so many Republicans endorse his crackpot theories, focusing on cutting taxes with the expectation that the spending cuts will magically materialize.
Again, Ross, this is a matter of cleaning your own house. If these guys are so wrong, how come the Weekly Standard and the National Review and all the Republican politicians and so many Republican pundits and commentators pretend that they are right?
Remember, the right constantly holds us responsible for Ward Churchill (not exactly a major pillar in the liberal establishment). And yet here's a controlling ideology of the conservative movement which everyone seems to admit is wrong, but nobody has any responsibility to counter it? How convenient!
September 13, 2007 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Have I slipped into the "Twilight Zone"? The GOP has done more harm with their tax cuts for the rich than could have been imagined. They've made an art out of convincing blue collar, middle income Americans that cutting taxes for the very wealthy was in their best interests. That has been the con job of the century. To say that the GOP strategy has been good for the country is stunning. Look around and tell me the country is in good shape. Trickle-down has been a boon to the very rich and a catastrophy for everyone else. I don't believe a "Balanced Budget" is such a good thing, either.
Lets not forget people, that government spending creates jobs. Not government jobs, private sector jobs. Thats Americans working and paying taxes that eventually help us all. I'll bet NOLA wishes we had a surplus. I'll bet Minneapolis wishes we had a surplus. I'll bet every school in the country {you know, where most of our kids are suppost to be getting an education} wishes we had a surplus. I'll bet those blue collar, middle income workers wish we had a surplus. Especially since many of them are no longer middle income.
It's time we started living in the real world again people!
September 13, 2007 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Deep down do you really think that those blue collar middle income Americans think that they can inprove their lives by imposing heavy taxes on those they work for?
September 13, 2007 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
at some point in the maturing process doesn't one, even libertarians and paleo-conservatives, ever move beyond the text-book models that work so well in the classroom and not so well (not at all well) out here? we have been inundated and governed by people schooled like Douthat, who never move beyond their fatuous prescriptions (cut taxes, shrink government, vouchers for public schools, privatize social security, unleash the creativity and innovation of American capitalism by reducing taxes, reward our "productive" members of society). The reality is that George Bush had his father's friends bail out his corporate failures repeatedly, then market himself as a champion of the capitalist system where the cream rises to the top. But Mr.Douthat, in capitalism (and every other system) despite the few slogans you merrily sell to us all, shit rises as well as cream. And slogans gleaned from Ayn Rand or Uncle Miltie have the same hollow sound and insipidity as sloganeering from the sources you dislike.
September 13, 2007 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The real problem is that there's no fundamental distinction between Reagan and Norquist. Reagan is Norquist with some sentimentality.
September 13, 2007 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the last decade of his life Wanniski wrote some good antiwar columns. He was the first (to me anyway) to point out the disaster that was John Bolton. He was definitely an eccentric.
September 13, 2007 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Ross,
That Beast you are so proud of starving is named FEMA. The many thousand faces of starvation were found stranded on the rooftops and freeway overpasses of New Orleans.
As an intelligent, thoughtful, honest conservative, who is not at all a crackpot or a crank, and who has nothing but the best of motives I'm sure, I expect you to to take full and glorious credit for this crowning achievement of your governing philosophy.
September 13, 2007 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heavy taxes? Are you kidding me? What planet are you living on?
When they realize the schools their kids are going to can't teach and the bridges they're driving over could collapse or the tunnels. When the roads they drive on are so bad that their cars need more repair work or tire replaced. When a tornado hits and there's no help available. When their fire departments are undermanned. When their police departments don't have the resourses to deal with crime. When federal agencies that many Americans count on to keep from going under are gone and they are forced into crime just to support their families. When 2% of the nation have 98% of the wealth and the rest of us are nothing but a servant class I think they will.
This IS the real world we live in, not some GOP fantasy land.
September 13, 2007 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Government spending has slowed, but so has average wage growth. They are both results of the upwardly redistributionist policies of Republicans.
I have a feeling that the problem with wage growth has something to do with importing hundreds of thousands of poor Mexicans every year.
"You say I'm a dreamer. We're two of a kind. Looking for some perfect world that we both know that we'll never find." - Thompson Twins, "Hold Me Now"
September 13, 2007 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, now that's just mean. Look at the picture. Look at this guy. Look at the pissant beard that tells us how proud he is of finally being able to shave. He's probably 22 maybe 23, given to feeling his whiskers, experimenting with trims of beard. Look at his face round with baby fat. Here he is, he's read a few books, gone to a few keggers, maybe drunk too much once or twice. He's sat there polishing off a six pack with some buddies at the beach, looking up at the sky and a bright future ahead.
Has he ever held a job? A real job, you know, something that demanded actual work, physical labour, committment. Something that mattered because he needed it to pay for a home, for a family. Probably not. From the way he writes, from the way he looks, he's slid through life, as if it's been lubricated for him, never challenged, never confronted, never actually having to think, to live. He's lived a sheltered existence of existential comfort, and this has fooled him into thinking he knows something about anything.
And what's wrong with that? What's wrong with being a pudgy doughboy, living off his parents, getting by by brown nosing, feeding the vulgar buffoonish ideas of his naive ignorance to well healed infinitely more cynical, infinitely more vicious, benefactors who infect him with their cruelty. But he himself is not cruel, merely shallow and mindless an untouched by life.
And here you come along, Jalmari, and you take this lumpen unformed clay with his pseudo intellectual self satisfaction, and you WHACK HIM WITH FEMA. Jesus H. Christ, that's cruel. That's mean. He's not qualified, he doesn't have the tools to understand FEMA or Katrina, or the corpses floating in the water. He doesn't know from corpses, all he knows is video games, and subconsciously, he doesn't understand why there's no reset button.
There's nothing wrong with this boy-child that growing older and growing wiser can't cure. He may remain ignorant and buffoonish all his life, his choice. But we can't force him to become a man. He will come to maturity, to an awareness of the implacability of real life on his own, or he won't come to it at all.
To throw the reality of corpses and consequences into his uncomprehending, unformed face smacks of the simple cruelty of brutally whipping a dog hours after its peed on the carpet. He just doesn't have the equipment to appreciate what you are saying.
Maybe someday he will. But then he'll not be this pseudo-clever young flabby lump we see.
Or maybe, someday he'll just harden and dessicate into those withered hateful nobodies. In which case, he'll have earned scorn and contempt.
But right now? He's a nonentity.
So have a care with how ugly and intense the reality you rub his nose in.
September 13, 2007 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh but Kozmik, you know its true. I'm only cruel to be kind.
September 13, 2007 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
sort of like the heavy taxes Boehner and the boys willingly pay for the occupation of Iraq and then patriotically proclaim it is a "small price to pay" for freedom; the boys do sacrifice soo much: heavy taxes and then sending their children to defend freedom. Seldom have so few given so much to so many.
September 13, 2007 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
just four hours before the I-35W bridge collapse, Steve Sviggum a former Minnesota Republican legislator now the head of the Minnesota Taxpayers' League congratulated another no-tax blithering idiot, Governor pawlenty, for repeatedly vetoing all transportation bills. At least they are consistent in trying to destroy government. Starve government and the people it serves ( a twofer).
September 13, 2007 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I was wondering just what the distinction was between Reagan and Norquist. Reagan did raise taxes somewhat in 1986, in response to large deficits. And the federal government stayed at about the same size during his 8 years in power. Norquist would have been more radical.
But it's a difference in degree, I think, not in kind. Ross kind of elides this point. Reagan was concerned with funnelling tax savings to the rich, and encouraged the idea that all government spending is wasteful.
I'd like to see Ross Douthat address the fact that the economy did very well from 1945 to 1974, with tax rates that look awfully high today.
September 13, 2007 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tut-tut. As conservatives go, Douthat is one of the more reflective and critical ones. I think it comes through in this piece. He's not so bad.
And maybe he'll reverse the usual trajectory and be a liberal at 40. That would be nice.
September 13, 2007 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I have every hope of his being able to grow up and become a man. I'm rooting for him.
September 13, 2007 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're been very substantial on this topic in other posts. So you set the bar high for yourself.
Besides, be kind to the poor guy. Read his bio. He's the film critic for the National Review! (ahem)
September 14, 2007 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Axiom
Simply put, a robust, healthy economy is measured by the exchange of capital among it's members. The more money exchanges, the more growth occurs. For this reason, the concentration of wealth to a small group stifles economic growth, and this can be illustrated many times in history.
Corollary
Tax cuts of $100 to each citizen would do far more for economic growth than $10000 tax cuts to 1% of the citizenry.
Corollary
Because of the stifling effect of the concentration of wealth, tax cuts aimed at the rich will ultimately be less advantageous to this group than tax cuts aimed at a larger group. It is better to have 30% of a $100000 income taken in taxes than 20% of $75000.
dc
September 14, 2007 4:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
and don't forget he is the editor of the "letters to the editor" section for the Atlantic. Also, a proud member of the 2002 class of Harvard, that would make him some where around 27. Ya know, I was often an opinionated idiot at 27 and I didn't even have the benifit of a Harvard education. Looking back I can remember times when I was a real ass. Still can be, so some say. ;-)
Jack
September 14, 2007 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm being substantial in another way, Kozmik. You've read him the same as I have.
Obviously, his vapid, barely constructed arguments are nothing new. The unexamined premises, the facile strings of cliches, the utter lack of interest in actually engaging the issue. We've both seen this before. Douthat's response is the same typical second rate generic right wing spiel we've seen pumped out a hundred times, with its lack of substance and unwieldy flaws. There's nothing here that's special to Douthat. It could have been churned out by any Wurlitzer clone.
You've demolished this kind of thing effectively a dozen times. So have I. Does it make a difference. Nah, some self absorbed Douthat or equivalent clone always marches out proudly to dump it on us again and stand back beaming proudly, like a five year old who has taken a shit on the rug in front of his parents company and thinks its an accomplishment.
So what's the option here. I go through, I deconstruct the empty shells of his arguments, and then what?
This time, I chose to go a different root. I chose not to ignore the smirking condescension in his writing, I chose not to overlook the dumb misrepresentation, the facile but unconscious dishonesty. And I chose to deal with that.
I could have carefully deconstructed his language to expose him as an empty sack of wind, a bovine prick, a sneering man child. I could have laid bare, not just the text, but the infantile subtext of his writings. It would have been cruel, but there would have been a certain amount of fun to it.
But in the end, what would the point have been? Douthat is a nonentity, self-absorbed, uninformed, callow, untouched by life. That's painfully obvious from his writing.
I mean Jesus H. Christ, you're doing it yourself. Film Critic For the National Review. I had to stifle a laugh. Well, there's a classic case, isn't it.
But then, what's the point of dissecting a pasty, unformed, nobody, an untrained, unlearned man-child? Seriously? It's just cruelty.
The text of his writing is not worth discussing, his subtext is not worth discussing, he isn't worth discussing. And yet, like the precocious five year old, his fresh turd is sitting in the middle of the carpet. So some response seems appropriate.
I dunno. I think I took a fair and moderate approach.
September 14, 2007 6:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
What began as a majority-making insight - that the rich are the
engine of American economic growth, and that overtaxing them both
diminishes their economic liberty and diminishes everyone else's prosperity
Lets see what happens if the 90% majority of the population stop purchasing.
This is a consumer economy a perpetual motion economy that can be compared to check kiting.
When the job goes overseas we are blamed for not being “formally
educated appropriately” to find employment near the same wages and we are blamed for not
being flexible to accept a job paying minimum wages with no health insurance.
If your are flexible and accept minimum wages this leads to the newly
revised bankruptcy law that demands you attend economic
education classes. Financial responsibility is a requirement to be taught there.
The employer who caused the community the
crisis is reward with a higher stock values and
hailed as a financial genius!
The media in America show life upside down to distract from the actual problems.
The problems actually produce an eye full of “Offal” that seem unsolvable.
The problems are not identified as the waste resulting from large fortunes
being gained by political influence!
And you want MORE economic liberty, as in over the top!
Lets talk about Existence not Humanities death first.
Liberty should be an equal opportunity without a limiting modifier.
Liberty requires health and medical care for the worker and family.
Liberty is earning a living wage.
Liberty is having equal education independent of geography.
Liberty is having ones humanity and life considered to have worth independent of assets.
And YOU want MORE ECONOMIC LIBERTY, how dare you!
-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking
September 14, 2007 6:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
27 years old is pretty old to be coming at us with life experiences no deeper than having played a lot of Xbox. I dunno, I may have to write him off.
He looks like he's well on the way to maturing into a third tier right wing drone. You know the type? Writes books that no one reads, but that make best seller lists because right wing institutes buy bulk and then give em away. He sucks at the teat, and because it gives him what he needs, he never develops to stand on his own legs. Instead, he just kind of swirls around and around in a pool of the like minded, transmitting ideas osmotically received. He's wedded to his comfort, the same comfort that keeps him from challenging his world will keep him from making any real mark within that world.
He's never going to be an O'Reilly or a Limbaugh. He's not going to be a Norquist, or even a Ledeen, a Kagan or a Podhoretz. Sure as hell he'll never be a Perle or a Wolfowitz or a Bolton. Let's face it, he doesn't and won't ever have the depth, the drive, the fire, the intelligence and or the fierceness. He's third or fourth tier. He's the guy who gets the coffee for these other guys.
What we're talking about is a faded second-rate clone of David Frum. How underwhelming.
And this at the age of 27.
It's going to be heartbreaking to see him in his 60's. He won't be a bit different. But by that time, there'll be moments of vague disquiet, as he looks at his life and wonders that it amounts to so little, and as he ponders half formed thoughts that he might have overlooked something... like becoming a man at some point in his life.
September 14, 2007 6:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny how the "shrinking" of government never includes the military. If you look at overall spending you will see that militarism accounts for about 50% of discretionary federal spending. It has also increased under Bush. The actual spending is currently running at about a half trillion per year. But, try to get a few billion for children's health care and the GOP starts yelling about expansive government.
How many times do we have to keep fighting the same libertarian dogmas. An interesting comparison - the size of the deficits is about the same as the size of the tax cuts the wealthy have received. Borrowing to keep Paris Hilton happy, that's a great way to run an economy.
--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape
September 14, 2007 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is too simplistic.
A healthy economy is measured by its ability to create goods and services at a low cost. The exchange of a large amount of capital could simply indicate that people are biding up the price of scarce goods.
If you are assuming that all tax cuts are spent, I don’t see how it makes much economic difference if a relatively small number of people spent relatively large sums of money v.s. a large number of people spending a small amount. It will affect the types of goods that are in more demand, high value goods in the case of a few people spending large lump sums.
If breaking up concentrations of wealth means dismantling some of the private capital infrastructure, that could have an effect on the economy longer term, whether it is a good or bad effect depends upon whether there is a surplus of infrastructure.
September 14, 2007 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
So was the problem with FEMA in New Orleans a lack of money or criminal corruption and racism? Isn’t the solution to purge Republicans from public agencies rather than giving them more money.
September 14, 2007 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just think the blue collar, middle American looks around and does not see an America in as dire shape as you portray it and, though they may hate their boss, they are just a little hesitant to vote people into office who promise to severely punish him since he signs their paychecks.
September 14, 2007 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe, maybe not. I suppose we'd just have to let them decide in the voting booth.
That must be why the Republicans kept their stunning majorities in both houses of Congress and State races.
Oops! They didn't! Well, scratch that notion then.
ROTFL
September 14, 2007 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
For all of Norquist's raving about government spending, I've been sadly amused by his campaign to have at least one thing named for Reagan in every county of the US. When I lived in Arlington, VA, and the name of National Airport was changed to Reagan National, the county didn't want to suddenly change signage since the cost (lots of big highway signs) was in 6 figures.
Norquist/Reagan supporters told the county that all federal funds going to Arlington would be cut off unless the signs were changed. Can we say "unfunded mandate", boys and girls?
Arlington, incidentally, provides such things as the fire service for the Pentagon. Obviously, it's more important to have Reagan signs.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
September 14, 2007 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Republicans lost last election because of the Iraq war, a general sense of corruption and incompetence, too much spending ect. I don’t recall Democrats running on a strong “soak the rich” platform.
The soak the rich story seems like it should be a winner since it is the always popular free lunch message. For some reason it just doesn’t seem to resonate.
September 14, 2007 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree to some extent.
It's not worth pouring too much energy into it. As you say, conservative think tanks will make more. Besides, people have gotten hip to it.
September 15, 2007 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I fly into National airport on a regular basis and to this day I refuse to refer to it as Reagan airport.
Norquist also lead a campaign to put Reagan on the $10 bill.
September 15, 2007 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Other than Nancy would probably kill Norquist for it, he'd contract with the Lenin's Tomb staff to create an equivalent in Lafayette Park.
Seriously, I am utterly amazed that the costs of Norquist's campaign, to say nothing of where the funds will come from for this, haven't been routinely thrown back at him. There's no question that there has been a renaming of Federal facilities, and renaming -- especially if it affects printed documents, road signs, and the like -- is surprisingly expensive.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
September 15, 2007 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
September 15, 2007 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't see a serious argument that the Republican focus on tax cuts has been on balance a good thing.
Almost all of our ills are due to a systematic refusal to spend the people's money for the benefit of the people. Healthcare, education, infrastructure -- you name it, if it's a problem for us today, it's because of the Republican focus on low taxes.
I really don't understand the focus on low taxes as anything other than a marketing ploy. If the government is ingerently unable to be efficient with the people's money, than why tax at all? And if the problem is that there is inefficiency in government, then why isn't the answer to fix the inefficiency? (It's not like there aren't wild inefficiencies in the private sector, and no one wants to drown it in a bathtub.)
I agree this is a serious modern conservative -- I think it shows the paucity of their so-called ideology that this level of analysis is considered "above average."
September 19, 2007 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink