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The Motives of Your Opponents

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I should start out by saying something nice about Jonathan Chait's book, so I'll say this: It's a book that every conservative should read. It demolishes a theory that too many right-wingers take seriously - namely, the notion that cutting taxes raises government revenue in the short run - and it demonstrates that by embracing this theory the small-government movement has enmeshed itself in contradiction. The contemporary Right simultaneously believes that cutting taxes will shrink government by "starving the beast," and that cutting taxes will produce more government revenue, not less.

In fact, neither seems to be the case: Cutting taxes tends to produce more demand for government, because voters don't feel the cost of government services, while simultaneously reducing the revenue base needed to pay for those services. Too often, as Chait's analysis makes clear, supply-side theory has been a way for conservatives to downplay the difficult side of their "lower taxes, less government" message - the side that requires, well, actually cutting spending - and pretend that there's such a thing as a free lunch. There isn't, which is why both Reagan and George W. Bush found themselves running large deficits even during economic booms, and why neither was all that successful at their professed aim of reducing the size and scope of the federal government. This is a failure that conservatives who care about deficits and the size of government need to reckon with; too many haven't, and I commend Chait's book to them.

Now I'll say something rather more negative: The most attention-catching aspect of Chait's thesis - his argument, restated in his first post, that the best way to understand the contemporary conservative movement is by treating it as a conspiracy to practice class warfare on behalf of the rich - strikes me as little better than name-calling, and undercuts the more subtle political analysis that he practices elsewhere in the book. I don't want to step on anything Megan McArdle might say in her contributions to this discussion, but I think her old post on why, in most cases, people actually believe what they say they believe and should be engaged on those terms applies in spades here. The conservative zeal for cutting taxes, if you believe what conservatives themselves say, flows from two inter-related considerations: First, an empirical belief that a low-tax economy grows faster than a high tax economy, and second, an ideological belief that individual freedom is threatened by a too-large welfare state. In practice, both of these beliefs tend to militate in favor of a less-redistributionist tax policy. If you're going to cut taxes to spur economic growth, you obviously need to cut them for the rich as well as for the poor, because the rich pay most of the taxes and are responsible for most of the investment that (under this theory) drives economic growth forward. And if you think that the government should have less money to play with, well, again, the way to accomplish that is to cut the taxes of the people who supply the government with most of its spending money.

The upshot, in both cases, is that conservative policies tend to make the tax code less progressive than liberal policies. (Thus, according to fellow book clubber Ezra, across the last quarter-century the richest one percent of the country has seen their share of the national income grow by 96 percent, while their share of the tax burden has only grown by 89 percent.) But to argue that the Right's goal has been to take money from the poor and give it to the rich is the equivalent of my arguing that the Left's goal is to steal money from the rich in order to punish them for their success. That is, it's an ideological rather than a factual statement, and one that doesn't address any of the left's actual arguments for higher taxes, any more than accusing the Right of Social Darwinism addresses the conservative argument that the post-Reagan changes to the tax code have led to additional economic growth and meaningfully increased economic freedom - including the freedom to get rich - for all Americans.

Maybe conservatives are wrong about this, and at the very least I'm more sympathetic than many of my fellow conservatives to Chait's belief that in an age of rising inequality and stagnating wages, the government should be doing more to foster working-class opportunity than it is today. (Though we would probably disagree on the form that opportunity-fostering should take.) Which is why I often find myself getting in arguments with smart libertarians like Will Wilkinson, in which I make the case that we need some new policies to address middle and low-income insecurity and/or immobility, while they counter that the welfare gains most Americans have made over the past thirty years aren't captured by wage statistics alone - which ignore everything from the benefits of falling prices to the diversity of goods available to consumers to the fact that many of the poorest Americans are recent immigrants on their way up - and that the best thing for government to do is just keep taxes low and stay out of the way, lest we kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

There are good points on both sides of this debate, but the point is that it's a debate, and one in which Will and I agree (I hope) that we're both aiming at policies that serve the common good. And this is what I find so unfortunate about Chait's argument: Having zeroed in, justly, on a bogus conservative talking point and torn it to shreds, he feels comfortable glossing over every other argument to his right, all the while imputing the worst of motives to his opponents. This is an effective debating tactic, up to a point, but telling people who disagree with you that they're just like the Social Darwinists isn't likely to persuade anyone who doesn't already share your premises.


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I think that the motive issue that Douthat raises is deep in the weeds and not really necessary to Chait's thesis-- the important point is the one Douthat concedes, that there's a lot of conservatives knowingly spouting or not contradicting BS economic arguments because they are electorally potent and promise the voters a free lunch while benefitting key constituencies.

But if we are going to discuss motive, we have to separate the motives of various actors, perhaps as follows:

1. There are a lot of people who support tax cuts because they simply want to keep more of their money. (Indeed, middle class voters do this too, often supporting middle class tax cuts.)

2. There are people who believe that cutting taxes increases economic growth. Jack Kemp is a nice example of this.

3. There are people who believe that cutting taxes will eventually force a shrinking of the size of government. Grover Norquist is an example of this.

4. There are also some genuine supply siders, whom Douthat concedes are quite wrong, i.e., people who believe that cutting taxes is a way to FUND the government by bringing in more revenues. Lawrence Kudlow seems to be an example of this.

The problem is, there are many people whose actual position is 1, 2, and/or 3 and who know that position 4 is crazy who nonetheless espouse it, and that's the point of Chait's book.

Nonetheless, what the problem is with Douthat's argument is he seems to ignore the existence of position 1. And to the extent that position 1 is taken a lot of Republican financiers as well as voters, Douthat ignores the existence of another category-- people who don't even believe 2 or 3, let alone 4, but who know that tax cuts will benefit and please people who take position 1 and who fund the party.

Now, how many are in this category, I couldn't say. But I doubt it is zero, and I bet it is significant. Parties, after all, act to please their financiers. And the question I would have for conservatives is whether they deny there are people who are espousing supply side arguments not as a cover for some other public policy argument but simply as a cover for policies that benefit the donors?

You're giving them way too much credit. If conservatives feared an all-powerful welfare state then they wouldn't support bans on gay marriage and flag burning or a harsh war on drugs. The conservative hatred of taxes has nothing at all to do with a love of civil liberties. You can have a real debate with the crew at Reason magazine but not with the typical conservative politician who has been pushing big government and no taxation at the same time.

And the class-warfare line is not name calling. If you design a tax code that winds up putting most of the resources in the hands of a few people then you are engaging in class warfare whether you intend to or not. When a hedge fund manager pays 15% in taxes each year while a school teacher pays 25%, that is class warfare.

You're trying way too hard to be nice.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

On the other hand conservatives would say they intend no "welfare" for the sex, drugs, and rock 'n' roll crowd which, they'd probably add, isn't a "class" but is rather an asocial bunch which should be excised from society.

If you want to use the power of government to make sure that everyone acts like a square, then don't claim to be worried about personal freedoms.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

Another way of saying the same thing ---

Conservatives believe that market activities and social/religious activities are and can be kept separate -- see, John D. Rockefeller teaching Sunday School class one day and going out the next to crush his competitors. Or see the nineteenth century mother as moral center of the home and protector/instructor of social values -- outside the home, her husband a shark in capitalist waters.

Thus, for a conservative there's no contradiction between plumping for a free market in economics and a heavy police presence to rid society of its social reprobates.

Conservatives believe that market activities and social/religious activities are and can be kept separate

If conservatives really believe that (and I don't think all that many do), the huge commercial success of pornography, reflecting the free market preferences of American consumers, would seem to be a rather damning refutation of that.

"But to argue that the Right's goal has been to take money from the poor and give it to the rich is the equivalent of my arguing that the Left's goal is to steal money from the rich in order to punish them for their success. "

I wouldn't mind a reference from Mr. Douthat here; I do not think I will get one (I do not think it exists). In fact the usual argument concerning the right wing redistribution of wealth is not that their goal is to "take money from the poor and give it to the rich"; in fact the argument that Robert Novak and others make and state clearly and repeatedly is that the most productive members of society, the ones that REALLY make it work so wonderfully, need to have incentives and so should not indeed must not, be taxed (why this should apply to inherited wealth, well...don't expect consistency or integrity from this crowd); so the argument from the left despite Douthat's very kind paraphrasing is that the right wing policies do not re-create our society in terms of human and physical capital (this includes obviously housing, medical care, infrastructure, environment, and education) at even the same level as the past and hence create a society which, while producing a strata of super-wealthy, is not creating the conditions for continued economic prosperity. We on the left also criticize the lack of compassion and empathy for our common plight; for the suffering and neediness of our fellow man. What is worse is the mental attitudes on the right that accompany these disastrous economic policies (which are in human terms the impoverishment of large sections of our middle and underclass), the fostering of indifference and cruelty of a hereditary upper class oligarchy. It is out of the bowels of such a class that utterly detestable detritus such as Bush flows. (Has he spoken ever of the common human bond that ties us to the lowest and most deprived? I do not recall it. My impression is that like George Allen, or Pat Buchanan, he has always been a bully, indifferent to people outside his circle, a mean, petty, self-centered, vain, spoiled little man...a danger to all).

What happens when the rich refuse to pay taxes?

"The immediate trigger for the Revolution was Louis XVI’s attempts to solve the government’s worsening financial situation. In February 1787, his finance minister, Max Odenthal, convened an Assembly of Notables, a group of nobles, clergy, bourgeoisie, and bureaucrats selected in order to bypass the parlements. Calonne asked this group to approve a new land tax that would, for the first time, include a tax on the property of nobles and clergy. The assembly did not approve the tax, instead demanding that Louis XVI call the Estates-General."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution

The rest is history. The rich have always tried to use political or military power to avoid paying taxes. Why should now be any different?

Mr. Douthat --

I think you're (deliberately?) missing a rather large point when you say

"There are good points on both sides of this debate, but the point is that it's a debate, ...."

The reality is just the opposite, that the public is being _denied_ any debate, and specifically by the actions of Republicans. It may be true that you and Ms. McArdle, as "insiders", can testify first-hand that there are in fact rational, thoughtful, non-moonbat-crazy economists/thinkers within the Republican party; perhaps you have lunch with them from time to time. But from out here in Voterland we never see these people, we never see evidence of their actions, and so for us they effectively don't exist (a point J. Chait has re-stated here).

Speaking for those of us who don't have blogs at the Atlantic and who don't interview economic advisors, and whose news comes through television, newspapers and the occasional magazine, here is what we see. Every national Republican -- including the President, the party leaders in Congress, all the presidental candidates, and their entire retinues of spokespeople, staff, and sympathetic commentators -- behaves in public as simply a tax-cut zombie.

A debate, as you would like to have it, means talking about trade-offs of various decisions. But on the subject of federal taxes no Republican ever allows such a discussion to take place. Ask any Republican publicly "What are the drawbacks to this tax cut?" they will _always_ answer "There are no drawbacks; tax cuts increase revenue, increase growth, and are always the right thing to do under all circumstances." We've all seen it, over and over: no thought, no evidence, no arguments, just one statement repeated again and again. Debate may take place within D.C. salons and restaurants, but as seen from out here no Republican even admits that debate is even possible; _all_ questions are answered simply with the "tax cuts are always good." From what we can see it's all zombies, all the time.

You and Ms. McArdle can report all you want about thoughtful Republicans, or considered arguments for tax cuts, but in the end it doesn't matter. The Republican party, as seen by the public in rhetoric an as experienced by the public in policy/legislation, talks the moonbat talk and walks the moonbat walk. This, I think, is Chait's essential point, and you have not engaged it at all.

Taking Ross about as seriously as I possibly can, I think it's fair to survey the outcome of the Bush tax cuts. I'll even slant the questions as far to the right as plausible, Fox style.

On a scale of 1 to 10, with "1" meaning "Not the least bit impressed" and "10" meaning "Couldn't be more pleased,"

  • How impressed are you with the phenomenal economic growth that President Bush created by lowering your taxes?
  • How are you enjoying the dramatic increase in personal freedom that President Bush ushered in by lowering your taxes?

Even Fox News would be hard pressed to get a 4 on the first question. I seriously doubt they could even muster a 2 on the second.

I'm sorry if this hurts conservatives' feelings, but after an unimpeded 6-year run, their policies are dismal failures across the board. I've yet to hear a compelling excuse why I shouldn't blame them for it.

But to argue that the Right's goal has been to take money from the poor and give it to the rich is the equivalent of my arguing that the Left's goal is to steal money from the rich in order to punish them for their success. That is, it's an ideological rather than a factual statement, and one that doesn't address any of the left's actual arguments for higher taxes, any more than accusing the Right of Social Darwinism addresses the conservative argument that the post-Reagan changes to the tax code have led to additional economic growth and meaningfully increased economic freedom - including the freedom to get rich - for all Americans.

It sounds to me like you would just prefer not to address some uncomfortable issues, and would like to keep things on the high mythological plain of academic economic arguments, which whatever their merits ride far above the reasons that actually motivate ordinary people. Of course, this is an empirical question that could only be answered by fairly sophisticated opinion surveying and social and cultural analysis, but I wonder how important a role the economic, pro-growth arguments for tax cuts really play in the psyches of most Republicans.

First, my impression is that Social Darwinism and associated notions still play a prominent, though not often candidly acknowledged part in Republican thought. You can often detect these sentiments squeezing out between the cracks in the rhetorical floorboards. Every so often, a Republican will go off on a pent-up Social Darwinist rant, and has to be shushed by the bosses, and stuffed back down in the basement. But he's still there.

There is also a very important traditional strain in Republican thought that bases its opposition to taxation on ideological commitments to views about the sacredness of property and contracting rights, without regard to whether the preservation of these rights maximizes growth. That was the country's dominant ruling class ideology during the Lochner era. Following the collapse of the Lochner precedents and the New Deal, the Republicans had to look elsewhere for economically respectable arguments to do what they wanted to do on ideological grounds anyway.

The narrative that appeals to wealthy and modestly affluent Republicans is that a bunch of dirty,lazy pinkos and brown-colored layabouts and ne'er-do-wells were ganging up on them for decades to take from them the money that is rightfully theirs. So they don't see themselves so much redistributing wealth upward, as restoring the proper distribution - the one that would have prevailed if the pinkos and coloreds hadn't been ripping them off for decades.

And then of course, we have the religious right. In the days of William Jennings Bryan, the Christian heartland was much more open to government intervention in the economy. But that was before they developed their new self-image as a beleaguered and besieged minority bastion of holiness in an unholy society. Their beef now about taxes is that they see taxation as taking money out of their godly communities, and using it to support the godless, heathen, liberal state of Babylon, and its degenerate Sodomite dependents. I don't think they really care all that much about "growth" and the other preoccupations of economists.

My guess is that for every Jack Kemp true believing prophet of growth through tax cuts, you have about five people who are more strongly motivated by one of the other ideological camps.

Sure, sure... but that just covers up an obvious contradiction. We shouldn't define conservatives by their delusions about themselves.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

"But to argue that the Right's goal has been to take money from the poor and give it to the rich is the equivalent of my arguing that the Left's goal is to steal money from the rich in order to punish them for their success." What strikes me is an asymmetry in this "equivalence." The first half does not talk of "stealing," although I certainly think of it that way. Nor does it ascribe a motive, much less one of punishing the poor and middle class for their failures to survive in this economy, although the bogus moral justification for free markets is indeed part of the conservative ideology. 

So, in effect, it rules out considering i politics or economics who benefits, when that is what politics and economics normally do consider, mocking it as a cover for liberal moral claims that may well be perfectly valid.  

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

Mostly it is a matter of rank dishonesty:

Claim to cut YOUR taxes, but really cutting only for the wealthiest few percent. Only way to sell this is to claim that it won't hurt the governement program you care about. So don't really cut programs. Only way to sell this is to claim that tax cuts won't decrease revenues. When that does not happen then have deficits (U.S.), stealing from other sources (NJ under Whitman from the employees benefits; U.S. under Reagan from social security) or go bankrupt (Long Island counties, Orange county).

The problem really really is that the majority of Americans do not really want to cut government programs the way that the Rove and Norquists and Republican plutocratic real leadship have wanted since the mid-1960s. The have cake and eat it to problem really is the problem. The inherent contradiction really is the problem. Honest conservatives eventually come around to it. But most just continue the old soft shoe.

Ross Douthat, I had not heard of you before but I find myself agreeing with you. Indeed it proves your point, I suggest, that many commenters respond to you by (1) employing ad hominem argument, (2) caricature (usually multisyllable caricature, like "plutocrat"); (3) to guilt by association (other conservatives are deplorable and fail to debate, you are a conservative, therefore I justify not debating with you by associating you with them), and (4) questioning your motives as another way of avoiding engaging in the substantive debate you invite (like the commenter who sees value in putting "(deliberately?)" before "missing a rather large point" or the one who presumptuously wrote "you prefer not to address some uncomfortable issues"). Thanks for stopping by and endeavoring to participate in some debate.

Ross is being treated quite nicely and his take the the situation has been both questioned and debated. I don't see him here answering objections, by the way.

I'm glad he's here to discuss things as well. But I don't think the commenters are being mean or unreasonable.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

Great responses.

I think a big reason why many conservatives are viewed as liars, deceitful etc is their failure to deal with topics like this realistically. They like to omit the true motivation behind the "Cut Taxes/Less Government" ideology which is greed. They cry about free markets and less government then call up their men in DC for some gubbament subsidies for their enterprise. I think it is only natural for people to want to protect their position in any situation but doing so at the expense of others becomes an offensive gesture rather than a purely defensive one. The fact that most conservatives will never attempt to see that what helps them hurts others shows how disingenuous they really are. They hate government unless it helps them. They hate socialism unless it helps them. Its one thing to be a thief and its another to be a lying thief.

I think the biggest problem here comes out of a single sentence: only a doctrinaire libertarian-slash-conservative would still believe that low taxes and crippled government are "the goose that laid the golden egg". While I hate to belabor an obvious point, the very medium we're using now is absolutely drenched in governmental encouragement, funding, and protection: everything from the ARPANet that started the whole thing off, to the enshrinement (at least until recently) of common carrier status, to the market-wrecking monopoly generation machine that is patent and copyright law. To the extent that this here network is the heart of the productivity explosion, it would seem to be an argument in favor of smart government, not small government.

And c'mon. You don't need to accuse conservatives of lying to point out the disingenuous nature of conservatives screaming about "CLASS WARFARE!!" whenever a poor person becomes aware of what's going on and says it sucks, when their own attitude towards wealth is also summarized by an equally valid truism:

"he was born on third and thought he hit a triple".

There are far too many conservatives that haven't the faintest idea how the game actually works.

Oh, while this may be a little unfair, I can count on the fingers of one foot the number of conservatives who don't cast aspersions on their political opposition. So I'm not going to overly impressed by whining about it headed the other way, and I doubt too many non-DLC liberals are at this point either. Or have you forgotten who made "liberal" a dirty word in America?

I think the Republicans have used attacks on character as a fundamental electoral strategy. Indeed, that is beyond debate. They are pioneers in poisoning the American political scene; they've introduced fundamental changes; destroyed the standards of decency.

It is disingenuous to argue that analyzing the motives of Republicans in their pursuit of tax cuts is an attack on character.

It is actually evidence of how ad hominem attacks by conservatives have become building blocks for flawed arguments that Douthat suggests that the progressives are now using the tactics of his side.

Ross please point me to a Conservative argument that provides a rigorous discussion of the sweet spot on the Laffer curve.

If the theory has any validity there should be an identifiable number that maximizes growth without eliminating the utility of the revenues foregone. Note I don't reduce this to federal revenues, point to a discussion that shows that net societal utility has been maximized. In other words show me 'trickle down'.

It never happens, conservatives will never commit to a number still less provide a rigorous data based analysis. They simply insist that wherever the right balance of growth vs utility of tax based spending that we are always on the wrong side of the curve.

Forgive us if we no longer take their ostensible claims seriously.

I keep returning to this post, hoping for more understanding of "the other guys," and while it won't help that he obviously isn't truly participating here, the more often I read it, the more dishonest it appears. It comes down to an assertion: the right believes lower taxes stimulate the economy for all, and economic regulation impairs our freedom, but liberals can't deal with these, because they're wrapped up in personal attacks on our motives.

But you read Chait and Krugman, and they're all about this as voodoo economics and how it got across, nothing even remotely like the allegation. All a novice has to do is scan the posts and compare the headlines to see who's playing fair. The very accusation that they're saying otherwise is an ad hominem argument. And if they said otherwise, could they be justified?

John

http://www.haberarts.com/

it is not necessary to deconstruct conservatives' motives--we need merely to acknowledge that no matter how much they have, they seem to want more.

Wanting more, they can either squabble amongst their wealthy and powerful selves (potentially troublesome as the powerful can fight back) or grind the poor and weak further into the dust.

*By squeezing the last nickel out of six cents they contrive to end the year with a comfortable increase in the old coffers--a motive in and of itself, as G-Dub himself recently made manifest.

What turns this rather banal greed into class warfare, is the obnoxious posturing with which it is surrounded. The victims of this oppression are further stigmatized with the canard that but for their fecklessness, the poor too would be feasting at the the same trough as their smug overlords. Thus does the ghost of John Calvin walk among us, designating as "elect" those who can grab more faster.

*(they make up for the small profit through volume...)

seems my post got deleted. I wonder why?

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