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Victorious Interruptus

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Come November 2008, the Dems have an excellent chance of enlarging their Congressional majorities and capturing the White House as well. I hate to say it, but this splendid development looks like it will be blown up by a failure to vacate Iraq. The Dem Leadership/Netroots family will become dysfunctional. The weakness and defensiveness of current Democratic criticism of the war is one tip-off. By the power of negative example, Jay Ackroyd provides the case that must be debunked.

There is little effort, in the campaigns or among the netroots, to build support for an alternative, progressive governing philosophy. That combined with dithering on withdrawal, not to mention potential attacks on Iran, could make the great victory of '08 short-lived. More important, failure to bug out sinks U.S. foreign policy deeper in the mire of imperial overstretch.


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Thanks Max. I really am trying to broaden this discussion. If we can get our leaders out of their foxholes, I think we can pour the foundation for a more effective progressive foreign policy.

I would, of course, be very happy to learn that my inferences are misplaced, and that all of our candidates have sincere commitments to be completely out of Iraq.

A commitment to occupation would not only fracture the party, it would turn the country against Democrats.

The Democrats who have no worry about facing their voters do support leaving Iraq ASAP. But, those who will face voters soon, especially those who want to be president, just don't have enough courage to take a position that even a minority of the voters will savage. I refuse to believe that there are any intelligent Democrats who don't understand how vital it is to our national interest to get out of Iraq and do it very soon. So, I am left with wet noodle spine syndrome as the problem.

Hoppy in Sacramento

Yes and it isn't just ending the war that might sink the Dems. Their failure to roll back the power grabbing of the executive and degradation of civil rights and liberties is also producing a backlash. Not challenging the Unitary Executive could enshrine this dubious theory in precedent.

Instead of retiring infringements on liberties cynically passed to aid the WOT, congress is extending them. Democrats and independents across the spectrum have a steadily declining approval of Congressional Dems for failing to check Bush on the whole neocon program. They were elected as a majority to act, not bide their time trying to give Bush more rope in the hopes that the Repubs will hang themselves in 2008.

I believe the Democrats are well on their way to losing their majority in '08. It's definitely heading in that direction. In my opinion, the ONLY way for the Democrats to save themselves is to give the crowd what they want: a little Republican blood. Impeaching Gonzales would probably do it. Impeaching the president and/or the vice president (whether they're convicted by the Senate or not is unimportant) would do it for sure. The Democrats are using the wrong impeachment model when they refer back to Clinton (or even Nixon). The impeachment model they need to refer to is Bush-Cheney, because this administration's crimes and misdemeanors are unprecedented in this nation's history.

The Democrats had better look down the road and bust a move or two because there's trouble on the horizon. Big trouble.

I disagree with this analysis. Fo one thing the Democrats hold only a razor slim majority in the Senate and as a result they have no power to force the Busdh administration leave Iraq (indeed, they'd have better luck pulling a King Canute and ordering the tides to obey them). And if anything the continued debacle in Iraq will work in the Democrats favor by making the voters even more determined to throw the GOP out of office in both branches of governmment. The voters know perfectly well who's to blame for Iraq and the rest of the fiasco we're in and it isn't the Democrat party or the current Congress. The buck will stop with the White House and there will be a massive repudiation of all things Bush. The GOP will spend the next several yaers running away from that toxic legacy.

"Fo one thing the Democrats hold only a razor slim majority in the Senate and as a result they have no power to force the Busdh administration leave Iraq"

Nonsense. The withdrawal could have begun following the first veto if the Democrats had any strategic abilities at all. They gave the president a bill. He vetoed it. The president defunds the war. End of discussion. Instead, the Democrats caved, as they have done on nearly every issue. The Democrats are not only screwing their chances in the next election, they may very well be screwing their chances for a long time to come. All it will take is for the Republicans to realize that if they can get the peoples' business done, they will get the peoples' support.

What, exactly, is better about a cowardly, feckless Democratic Congress over a rubberstamping Republican Congress? Where's the advantage to us? The Democrats made some mighty big promises before the election. If they don't keep those promises, they will get the boot, guaranteed. Here in Minnesota, the State Fair starts tomorrow. Senator Amy Klobuchar will be there, and I plan to give her a nice, big earful of hell about her vote on FISA. Then I will vote against her at my very first opportunity. A crappy politician is a crappy politican. Republican or Democrat, it really doesn't matter.

I think the solution to the Iraq conundrum becomes fairly straightforward when viewed from a perspective that focuses on the power relationships between the countries in the region. From the day we invaded until the day we leave, we are acting as Iranian proxies to increase their power in the region. There was no other possible outcome to removing the Iraqi regime. Once you accept that fact, the universe of possible solutions narrows drastically. I prefer to choose the one that leads to the least possible bloodshed. That would be negotiating a (relatively) peaceful transition from American control of Iraq to Iranian control of Iraq. We still have time to get some guarantees of Kurdish autonomy and protection of Sunni Arab interests from the Iranians, but the longer we wait, the worse our bargaining position becomes.

There is little effort, in the campaigns or among the netroots, to build support for an alternative, progressive governing philosophy. I agree with point and would like to expand its reach. It's not only lacking governing philosophy, it's also lacking a coherent social philosophy. Netroots, in particular, pay much more attention to Iraq than the US and when US policy comes up, it typically involves privacy, health care, global warming and at the borderline minimum wages.

Netroots seldom talk about declining standard of living, support for education on all levels, increasing research investments and unions. Before you unleash a new Dem president on the country you better make sure that foreign policy is not the only Democratic principle.

As for Iraq, the netroots can whine as much as they want, the majority in the Senate opposes withdrawal in Iraq. Now we can get quite blue in the face, but unless some Republican discover new balls, forget it!,

The best possible solution to the problems in Iraq is to impeach the president and the vice president. In fact, that's the best possible (and most efficient) solution for the majority of our current problems.

Instead, the Democrats caved, as they have done on nearly every issue. The Democrats are not only screwing their chances in the next election, they may very well be screwing their chances for a long time to come.

And that's the nut of it right there.
There's no getting past this.

Time for some fighters with spine. What are they afraid of? Hannity gonna call them names? He will anyway cowards!

It's like this, if you don't even fight, I guarantee you'll lose.

Yes and it isn't just ending the war that might sink the Dems. Their failure to roll back the power grabbing of the executive and degradation of civil rights and liberties is also producing a backlash. Not challenging the Unitary Executive could enshrine this dubious theory in precedent.

Instead of retiring infringements on liberties cynically passed to aid the WOT, congress is extending them
********************************************

Don't you think most Democrats in Congress see a Democrat president elected in 08 and that executive power in their hands?

Best for us, sure, and I whole-heartedly support it, but it does nothing for the Iraqis.

That's the really absurd part of this: the Democrats seem to be worrying about how the public will perceive them. I've got big news for the Democrats: YOU CAN STOP WORRYING. THE PUBLIC THINKS YOU SUCK.

Seriously, the Democrats simply have nothing to lose at this point by pursuing a tougher, more aggressive agenda because Americans could hardly hate them more than we already do. Go for it, Dems. Even if you lose, you'll come out ahead of where you currently are.

That would be an incredibly risky bet. We're looking for results now--not promises for the future. They already made promises, and they haven't kept a single one. What's to make us believe a word that comes out of Patrick Leahy's mouth? Why should we give Nancy Pelosi an ounce of slack?

The House passed Pelosi's first hundred hours legislation. Fine. Good. Cute. But that was their work--not ours. Our work was to get us out of Iraq and, even more importantly, to get us out from under the grip of this abusive, lawless administration. That's what they promised us, and that's why we voted them into the majority. And on that front, they've failed miserably. In fact, they've made matters worse.

Don't you think most Democrats in Congress see a Democrat president elected in 08 and that executive power in their hands?

As I was trying to wrap my brain around why the D's passed that horrible FISA bill that thought crossed my mind...and more than once.

Nancy Pelosi may suck at the job of Speaker of the House, but she'd be a hell of a lot better for the Iraqis than Bush has been. Part of the reason the Iraqis are in so much trouble is because the president has an agenda that has no basis in reality. ANYONE in the world could do a better job of bringing order and reconciliation to Iraq than he has done.

No.

But the presidential candidates may like the idea.

Idiotic idea, actually, because the republicans will switch sides on the issue in a heartbeat, pick up the principled democrats, and put the unitary executive back on the shelf until the next republican president is elected.

It is as vain to assume that there could be Iranian control of Iraq as it is to assume that there can be American control of Iraq, Saudi control of Iraq or Turkish control of Iraq. Iran certainly has a good deal of influence with important groups in Iraq, more influence perhaps than any other country. But they would have no more success in subjugating the Sunni triangle and Anbar province than the US has had.

Israel in Palestine, the US in Vietnam, the Soviets in Afghanistan, the US in Somalia - it's all the same unlearned lesson over and over. In the modern age of easy weaponry and explosives, bullets and guns that grow on trees, and uncontrollable black markets in the tools of destruction, even relatively weak people who are determined not to be ruled by various external powers can pretty well see to it that they are not ruled by those powers.

Nobody is going to take over Iraq.

You obviously weren't at YKos.

The politicians cannot tell the American people that they have been defeated for then they will be labeled defeatist. They must pretend that they have a plan that will lead to something else. I can understand why they say things that don't make sense to me so I will give them some slack on this.

We can only hope that they are aware that the only choice in Iraq is complete withdrawal of US forces. It would be nice also that we cease the 17 year bombing campaign against them, but that is probably to much to ask. (Ah the beauty of air power, no KIA US pilots in 17 years).

I think the Democratic party deserves to be torn apart if they can't get us out of this war.

nice try troll, but you give yourself away talking aboiut "the democrat pary".

the poor spelling doesn't help either.

I am lucky enough to be living in a state (Minnesota) where one of the boneheads (Amy Klobuchar) who voted for the FISA amendment lives. She'll be at the Minnesota State Fair tomorrow. So will I. Any messages you'd like me to pass along to her? Personally, I plan to rip her a new one. If she cries, I'll leave happy.

Maybe I said this before but it is possible that Pelosi was elected Speaker because she vowed to keep then-sitting House Dems in office.

Impeachment, FISA and the rest of what seem like recent inexplicable Dem votes, or non-votes, may be a combination of Pelosi keeping her promise and individual Dem poll results. House members, afterall, poll their districts and vote in the House according to those poll results.

Is a magic day coming when House Dems will vote according to the will of the majority of Dems in the country, or will they continue to be merely voting themselves back into office. The really magic day will be when Dem votes in individual districts reflect what the nation's majority of Dems want.

And, of course, have the Democrats launched a ship that will be afloat in '08, or have they launched one that will be under water by '08.

The Dems (those on your teevee) don't understand the meaning of courage. What matters is the courage of your convictions (which implies that you have convictions), not the preaching of a "muscular foreign policy."

The neocons actually believe their lunacy.
But the centrist Dems are weaklings: terrified that they might be caught with an original thought.
When I read the crap from Democracy Arsenal, all I see is weakness, fecklessness: "Americans want macho, fine we'll give them macho. They want a foreigner to hate, fine we'll give them a foreigner to hate." Why would I ever vote for such opportunists trying to catch the Bush 9/11 bandwagon?

Too many Dems have only one conviction: that they should be in power. And that conviction transcends all others. (Hillary, Pelosi, Reid, yes I am thinking of you.)

I think progressives should pull a Buckley-Goldwater on them. Our message to them should be: As long you don't stand for something progressive, we're willing to let you lose. After a few election cycles, they'll change their tunes and see that victory means they have to grow a spine and be progressives.

People will say, but the Dems, even the bad ones, are better than the Repubs. Let's say they are. If Bill Clinton was willing to turn in his brother to the authorities for his drug problems (the best thing he ever did), hell I am willing to let the Dems sink until they learn.

If more people did that, trust me, Hillary would change her tune on the spot!

But instead we'll all wallow in our mediocrity in the belief that Bush-lite (ie, Hillary) is really all we can hope for.

Sorry. Not me.

damn straight there's big trouble.

I do not know a single democrat who is happy with what's going on in congress, not one. they are making masssive mistakes by betraying the people who voted for them, and I also believe there will be bitter tears and recriminations in 2008.

Also, for the first time since Clinton/Dole, I do not expect to vote for a democrat: I will either stay how or, as I did in Clinton/Dole, vote third party.

The only thing that comes close to upsetting me as much as the thought of Bush's hubris driven fascist tendencies is a spineless, gutless, unprincipled opposition that capitulates under the guise of "bi-partisanship".

HEY D'S...TAKE A STAND AND FIGHT FOR SOMETHING OR YOUR TURN IN HOLDING POWER WILL BE A SHORT ONE!!!!

No one needs to take over Iraq. Iraq no longer exists. It's defunct. An illusion. What we used to call Iraq is now little more than a region in the Middle East where warring tribes are battling for local supremacy. They don't give a damn about the country we used to call Iraq.

Iraq will eventually dissolve into Iran and/or Syria. Turkey may invade from the north. An Imam will be the supreme force there. Democracy was never an option.

I will vote for Clinton if I am forced into it. A vote for a third party candidate is, as it was in the last election, a vote for the Republicans. I realize that a vote for Hillary is nearly a vote for the Republicans too, but at least I won't have to look at Mitt Romney's ridiculous Ken doll haircut for four years.

If Hillary gets the nomination, I suspect you will not be the only one staying home or voting third-party. If Hillary gets the nomination, '08 is going to be an excellent year for third-party candidates (not that any of them has any chance of actually winning, of course). I'd say Hillary's chances of winning in the general election are slim to none. I'll choke back the tears and vote for her, but I know plenty of people (my wife and my parents, for example) who simply won't vote.

Give her hell!!!

I guess if I had one question it would be...did you actually read the bill before you voted 'yes'.  And if she answers yes to that query I'd have a second question...'why did you end up voting yes then?'

Do something about it.

Get behind Stoller's Bush Dog Campaign.

I think they were more scared of looking like pussies - for good reason; they ARE pussies, but not for the reasons the GOPers claim. However, I don't imagine that Hillary will shed many tears when she is given the keys to the odious precedents set by this president and lap-dog Congress.

The "democrat party" could also be part of the poor spelling problem.

Just sayin'... 

 

"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani

...could make the great victory of '08 short-lived.

But don't the Democrats, at the least, have the advantage of everyone knowing the alternative -- Republicans -- are far worse?

How willing are people going to be to give power back to the GOP?

If anything, maybe this will encourage more talk of a third party, a better/faster/stronger progressive third party? Or maybe, and unfortunately, simply pull people out of the political process...  

 

"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani

And just why is it that we think that the Bush/Cheney regime, having amassed all this power and defied Congress at every turn, will politely hand it all over to a Dem on January 20, 2009 if no one has made a serious effort to impress on them that there are limits to their power before that?

After voting third party my whole life, I am going to vote Democratic for the first time, even if it's Hillary. I do believe that Hillary is better than anyone the Republicans can put up. She'll start out a very bad president, but perhaps she can learn from mistakes, listen to more viewpoints, and get better.

I kinda feel like this is our last chance. If we don't rebuild our alliances and rethink our role in the world now, it's going to be a long bumpy road down.

Don't you think most Democrats in Congress see a Democrat president elected in 08 and that executive power in their hands?

Some may very well be thinking that, but I don’t think voters want a dictatorial president, of their party or not. I want to see a president and congress that will pursue a progressive agenda, personally, but before that they need to return checks and balances, restore individual freedoms and protections, purge the institutional incompetence and corruption and try to regain our credibility in the world (ending torture would be a start).

If the Republicans deflect blame to Bush and the Democrats look like they're weak and do nothing, then the Republicans can argue "we're not Bush, let us clean this mess up." I guess this is the kind of message that Romney and Giuliani are already trying to convey.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

I dunno. Unless there's some new GOP blood, and with all the resignations and not-running-ism in the party, maybe there will be.

But it would be hard for Republicans to make the case that they're not Bush when they voted to support Bush all along. And even better, I'm sure there are plenty of Republicans on record, basically saying Bush is right, the surge is working, stand them up, clear and hold, Strategy for Victory, blah blah blah. 

 

"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani

cscs, let's look at the alternatives:

Democrats:

  1. All vote for the nominee.
  2. Progressives vote third party.
  3. Progressives stay home.

Republicans:

  1. All vote for the Republican nominee.
  2. Some vote for the Democratic nominee
  3. Single-value voters vote as normal.
  4. Evangelicals stay home.

Obviously, there are other alternatives, but these were the best I could think off-the-top-o'-me-head.

With regards to Republicans, it seems to me during the last few election cycles, that they tend to be very loyal to the party line. So, I don't necessarily discount that all would vote for the Republican nominee.  I highly doubt that Republicans would vote for a Democratic nominee... Hillary is out-right with the GOP, Obama faces latent racism in the South, and Edwards is viewed as too populist/socialist for them (I'm looking at the realistic Dem nominees, and not intending to slight Kucinich, Gravel, Dodd, et al).

It seems that  single-value voters will still be tapped heavily in '08; especially with immigration, abortion, and the GWOT. We don't have as many single-issues this time around (gay marriage, for example); however, those we have are still divisive.

I'm really up in the air in predicting how the Evangelicals will turn out. We've seen scandal after scandal, but those seemed to have played out in the '06 election.

With regards to Democrats, from reading posts on here it's obvious that not all Dems would vote for Hillary if she was the nominee.  That could definitely create a splintering, but the question becomes: is the splintering going to be enough of a tipping point in the Republican nominee's favor?

Now, if Hillary is not the nominee, how will the Progressives react? Are they fickle enough to turn on Obama or Edwards if they do or say something asinine in the next 5 months?

Assuming Hillary is the nominee, I see it as more a battle of attrition to which party will win in '08.  Or, I should say, which party will not lose in '08. I think (I'm going off memory) I read the national breakdown as something like Americans identify 40% Conservative, yet only 25% Liberal.  Garnering the moderate or independent vote is, of course, a major aspect of the election; but there also needs to be concerted effort to keep the other side at home.

I just worry that more Democrats will stay home than Republicans.  Otherwise, there very well could be an unintended switch of the GOP back in power.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

Israel in Palestine, the US in Vietnam, the Soviets in Afghanistan, the US in Somalia - it's all the same unlearned lesson over and over. In the modern age of easy weaponry and explosives, bullets and guns that grow on trees, and uncontrollable black markets in the tools of destruction, even relatively weak people who are determined not to be ruled by various external powers can pretty well see to it that they are not ruled by those powers.

This week's Economist (August 18th-24th) touches on this in regards to Israel and Syria:

In a conventional war Syria would be hopelessly outgunned.... But the success of Hizbullah's guerrilla tactics may have given Syria ideas. A former information minister, Mahdi Dakhlallah, said recently that the next war would not be conventional, but might involve “the resistance” (ie, guerrillas) with support from the army.

Guerrilla tactics defeated Israel in Lebanon. Israel initially relied on air power to attack Hizbullah's rocket-launching crews, and killed hundreds of civilians. It mobilised its ground forces too late, and then made a mad last dash for territory that cost many soldiers' lives but had little impact on the enemy. The new chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, is trying to learn from those mistakes; he is reversing changes made by his predecessor to the command and logistics structures and has been giving reservists extra duty and exercises to make up for their lack of training.

...

But as Hizbullah showed, advanced hardware is no longer a guarantee of military supremacy. Victory in the future will depend on better intelligence and planning.

It sounds like some people are learning, at least.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

Sometimes things have to get much, much worse before they can get better.

Keep in mind that close to 30% of Americans still think Bush is doing a swell job... reality hasn't caught up with those folks yet, and that may take time (or it may never happen, who knows).

Of course the 2008 election is Dems' to lose. But that wouldn't be the first time they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, now would it...

In my mind the Democrats need to wage 2 wars simultaneously. The problem being that the only war Democrats ever seem capable of engaging in is a civil one. But to be fair, most of us in this country simply love to bitch about things but when something needs to actually be done about them, well we're all busy or the sun is in our eyes or something...

Democrats (hell Republicans with a soul too) need to wage war on this administration here at home. And in spite of my mixed feelings on the subject, that means impeachment proceedings. And not just one or two of them. This nation is being run like Enron and we need to clean out the entire (mis)management and put this ship back on course. There is no more time for meager gestures, careful political maneuverings, hollow criticisms or kid gloves. If some toes need to be stepped on, don't step...STOMP. DO something and do it now.

The other war they need to wage is against the entire Iraq debacle. Shutting that operation down ASAP is of vital national and global importance. Whether we are talking about troop losses, our international prestige losses, our national treasure losses (both to actual combat expenditures and ghastly corruption) or the fact that merely being there is making things worse everywhere, all of this must be ended immediately. There are no, none, ZERO reasons that anyone has offered that make a lick of real sense in regards to our continued occupation. I'm reminded of the old saying "don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining" only in this case we all jumped down the hole in the outhouse ourselves. And once we get the hell out we need to start lining the criminals up that got us in there. It's the Step One - Step Two approach. Moving into the region with diplomatic and humanitarian aid is obviously what we need to be doing. And for crying out loud let's also bring in their neighbors to help the process out. Forget about what Iran or any of the other nations over there is or isn't. The crisis in Iraq that we made is a genuine catastrophic issue for all (no debating or fudged intelligence reports required).

What kills me about all of this is that all of it is so damned obvious. To quote Gob from Arrested Development...COME ON! What the hell is wrong with all of us if we can not see malfeasance and treason right before our very eyes (on a daily basis) and not do a damned thing about it but make up excuses for not doing anything and debating about who's got the better plan that won't be implemented. It's enough to drive you crazy, well me anyway...

With regards to Democrats, from reading posts on here it's obvious that not all Dems would vote for Hillary if she was the nominee.

Not to stray from your other points, but I wonder if this is really true. I think it's a bit exaggerated now, the fanfare and excitement of the primary season and all...but faced with Clinton or a Republican, when push comes to shove, Democrats will vote Democratic. 

Sure, some would not vote. Less would actually vote Republican. But I don't see all of Obama's and Edwards's current supporters simply dropping out of the process just because Clinton got the nomination.

As far as Evangelicals, it's Huckabee or Brownback only. Maybe Mitt, as he is religious, although his religion scares people. But he's not a godless heathen, like Giuliani. My guess is much of the religious right stays at home that day.

... but the war gets funded when Republicans control Congress. The war gets funded when Democrats control Congress. Bush, Cheney, and Gonzo don't get impeached when the Republicans control Congress. Bush, Cheney, and Gonzo don't get impeached when the Democrats control Congress.   

At least she's a functioning human, as opposed to Bush.

I agree cscs.

This is primary season so things are much more about intraparty selections than interparty match-ups. Although that too is a factor being weighed.

But if Democrats had to report to the polls tomorrow with a Clinton vs. Republican du jour then you nail it - most would pull the Clinton handle while some might simply not show. I think this election in particular will see far far less Democrats voting Republican for any reason whatsoever. It's simply been too long and too frightening a nightmare under Bush for me to imagine them doing so. Especially looking at the field of candidates that the Republicans have to offer. It's in a word...dreadful.

I agree that a good portion of the "I'll never vote for Hillary" is exagerrated hyperbole. However, I also recall the netroots campaign against Leiberman, and for Lamont. And, in an ironic twist, it was the Independent who pulled votes from the Democratic (and more progressive) candidate.

I also recall Ralph Nader in 2000. Although I do not believe he cost Gore the election, it was apparent that enough progressives were fed up enough with the status quo Democrats to risk fiat-voting for a Republican.

Now we have single-values organizations drawing election points towards them. We have spiralling inequality in standards of living. We have a huge economic mess. And, we're in a war (and possibly starting another on in Iran).

Throw in the internet and instantaneous access to information, and I can certainly see the Progressives getting restless.

Will possible Progressive and Netroots actions against a possible Hillary nomination be enough to tip the scales back into GOP hands? Especially, as you say, Evangelicals would probably focus on either Huckabee or Brownback (and who would probably stay at home if faced with a Guiliani nomination)?

I don't know.

However, I'm not discounting the possibility.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

If Clinton is the nominee, I will turn out on election day to vote (D) in every down-ballot race. I simply will not cast a vote in the Prez race. I will not reward any Dem with the Presidency who voted for the Iraq War Resolution in 2002.

It goes beyond Dems like me. Do you expect the independents to show up, too?

I prefer to defeat these Dem hawks in the primary. If not, I expect to sit back and enjoy the general election campaign when the Iraq War is taken off the table as a Dem issue while flip-flops show up every darned place.

Sometimes things do get much worse before they get better... However, I don't necessarily agree that sometimes things "have" to get worse before they "can" get better.

I suppose there's a moral relativism to it; I simply can't stand the thought of more people (in the US, in Iraq, anywhere) having to suffer - actually, being forced to suffer - because someone didn't feel it was the right political climate or time to speak up and do something.

At the same time, it frustrates me when Democrats allow the status quo to continue simply because there are too many competing ideologies fracturing the singular voice of reason or action of change,

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

Glenn Greenwald has a post at Salon ("The Enduring Myth of Americans' Dislike of Investigations") which touches, a bit, on the "we kinda won... so where do we go from here?" discussion.

Greenwald's point is that polls show clearly that Americans want Congress to take action against the 'administration' -- despite the Republican's sad little argument that the numbers mean Americans think Congress is spending too much time investigating the administration!.

Well... Republicans lie; it's one of their chief features (To quote Robert F. Kennedy, they "lie....all the time. They lie when they don't even have to lie"). The polls, if the Thugs ever bothered to read them, support Glenn's critical point:

Thus, the only rational conclusion is ... the weaker Congress is in defying the President, the more unpopular Congress becomes.

The (so far) disappointing actions of Congressional Democrats may be due less to the myth that 'Democrats just can't lead', than the result of the general Beltway Effect.

Wings of political parties, lobbyists, members of Congress, industry and the military; the foreign policy “community”, journalists and pundits, have created a separate dimension in D.C. which defy the laws of Einsteinian and Newtonian Physics. It's a company town.

Crossing over the District line, it's mandatory to suspend all disbelief -- as if you were about to step into a poorly-written historical drama -- and this has been the case for generations.

Actually, it’s more like a bad episode of the original Star Trek: The inhabitants of a beautiful, capital city of a planet live in a separate reality, which has no real bearing on events outside the boundaries of their town.

Receiving no response to hailing, Kirk and Spock beam down, and tell the leadership of the political parties in the capitol that a Giant Thing From Space is bearing down on them; they need to take action and the Federation can assist. Already, their fellow citizens elsewhere on the planet are beginning to suffer.

However, the political leaders in the beautiful city chuckle, knowingly and politely: How absurd. Then, when Kirk insists, they turn tough — they have important things to decide. Politics is a delicate game of posturing and action — so many people depend on what they do for their livelihoods! Plus, there’s Quatloos to be made! and reputations to uphold! and power to be wielded! and we must sound sagacious when with The Speaking Heads!

Kirk and Spock end up in a cell; what the people in the capitol think is important is only true for them, and a few thousand others.

KIRK: It’s senseless, Spock — there’s a thing the size of a solar system heading this way, and all they can really think about is -- how they appear to each other!

SPOCK: Fascinating, Captain.

Unless and until the scales fall from the eyes of everyone in the Democratic Party -- from the Netroots, to the DLC -- about the true price being paid for the incestuous illusions which appear to seduce everyone in Washington, at some time or other ... we can't expect to make headway on a 'New Direction'.

We can't expect that candidates will just appear and clearly enunciate that Direction for us, and the rest of the nation.

I believe, ultimately, that we can provide this to the country. But, the Party has to come to its senses about where its true authority resides -- and only that is going to provide any new directions. And that authority doesn't reside in the District of Columbia, or the D.C. dimension.

I don't know if we will find that direction in this Presidential race; the D.C. dimension already seems to have anointed its candidate. However, the situation in America is dire enough that we must find a new understanding about politics and policy for the Democratic Party, one based on reality -- we don't really have a choice.

And until we do, we can expect that the giant thing from space will get us. Every single time.

[I had posted much of this as a reply on another site before adding it here.]

Then there's the FISA bill...

Me too. I gave Kerry the benefit of the doubt in 2004 but beginning in 2006 I started voting on the war and health care (and they do go together - the coward caucus is consistently cowardly) and I've now added civil liberties. I won't vote for Hillary because she won't deliver on any issue that matters to me. Why accept ownership of the war? Let the Republicans have it. If the Democrats aren't going to get out, I'm not voting to keep us in.

Give her hell for me too! Why don't you ask each person in the DFL booth if they're interested in running for Senate in 2012? Not too soon to start the campaign -- and be sure to get Franken's campaign on the record on this too. I got a positive response from Franken's campaign on the FISA bill but they need to know that we've learned that we can't take anything for granted.

A lofty credential for a presidential candidate.

Re: I realize that a vote for Hillary is nearly a vote for the Republicans too

If you were talking about the Eisenhower/Rockefeller era Republicans you'd be quite right. But between Mrs Clinton and today's GOP there exist a vast, yawning gulf, and anyone tempted to to imagine that it isn't there needs to look into it, or perhaps across it and see what's really on the other side. You might try visiting RedState.com, sanest of the rightwing blog sites. Or for a taste of true wingnuttery, perhaps Lucianne.com. You'll be happy to embrace Hillary afterward.

Re: The withdrawal could have begun following the first veto if the Democrats had any strategic abilities at all.

Look, I want to Iraq War over too, but it needs to end the right way, and Congress is not the place where fine-tuned foreign policy can be made. We need a president, one dedicated to peace not war, to do pull this off right, so I'm perfectly happy to wait another year and a half to begin. And every minute America stays in Iraq is another blow to NeoCon foreign policy and the GOP, which does not displease me either. The ghastlier this whole business looks in hindsight the less likely it will ever be repeated.

Re: the Republicans can argue "we're not Bush, let us clean this mess up."

They could do that, yep, but they aren't. And for a good reason: George Bush still has a small but (within the GOP) powerful base who sees him as divinely anointed (I mean that literally). These folks won't allow the GOP to turn on Bush. They've tied Bush and Cheney like a millstone to their party's neck and the GOP will sink with them.

supported by our very own Amy Klobuchar, the great progressive Senator from Minnesota.

Me as well. What a first class shit she is turning out to be. Has anyone asked Franken to take a stand. I wonder.

I e-mailed his campaign and got a good response. I thought he was waffling a bit for a minute but in the end he said he'd have voted against it.

"I do not believe he cost Gore the election."

Let's not get all carried away with guilt and take umbrage because of it. Ralphie wasn't "the one thing" that cost Gore the election. But, he was more than just one of the things. He was one of a few significant factors, any one of which, if slightly altered, would have been enough to make a differnce.

It was so close, how could an objective analysis fail to recognize this? Nader and his voters were a significant agent in Gore's 2000 defeat.

Kevin Russell Cook

Because the republicans will take it back. They'll ally with the principled democrats to rewrite these laws and take the power away from the President.

We're in an impossible situation. The republicans don't care about policy or principle. None of them.

That's why the unitary executive was a feature of the Nixon, Reagan and Bush administrations, while Clinton was impeached.

This is a new development in the post-Civil War era, partly a result of the final, post-Civil Rights Act consolidation of the Republicans as the party of the racists, and partly a result of a gradual elimination of principled republicans. The Northeast republicans are gone. The Northwest republicans are soon to be gone. The ones who stayed, stayed by acting like southern republicans--which should put them out of office after the next cycle.

This is a pity, as Max says. It would be awful if the spineless wing of the democratic party were to destroy this opportunity. Or, as Ed Kilgore no doubt would say, if the rabid left wing of the party were to destroy this opportunity. Ed's position would be more persuasive if there were more democrats in the rank and file who supported legislation like the bankruptcy bill--and who support a "centrist" approach to the occupation.

Was it Nader's fault that Gore only got about 50% of the vote and not 55% or 60%? I don't think so.

Yes, Nader got enough votes to make a difference. But, you know, your point would have been a lot more valid if Nader had 10-15% of the vote. The fact that Nader's insignificant percentage of the vote made such a difference reflects badly on Gore, not on Nader.

To sum up, Nader was only significant because of all the other problems with Gore's campaign.

You can't stand the thought, but that's how things are. Again, somewhere between one quarter and one third of Americans think things are going swell. It is clear that for many people 3,700 US soldiers dead in Iraq isn't enough.

Look into history. In mid-1944, it should have been crystal clear to most Germans that they were going to lose the war. But millions more had to die before Germans capitulated. In early 1945, it should have been clear to the Japanese that their little war was going nowhere. But things had to get a lot worse before the war could end...

It's all about the power of denial. Some people are better at denying reality and need a much stronger kick in the backside. Sad but true.

I wonder if any of the Dem candidates could find their inner tyrant like Republicans. So much of what Bush has done is to claim or reserve or assert authority to act as he wishes. Signing statements are just interpretative options until actions are carried out under them. Those actions are never adjudicated as outside his authority. Executive orders and seemingly unconstitutional actions are not illegitimate if they are never brought to light and challenged.

Bush claims unlimited power but uses that power in secret or with congressional acceptance. As with Nixon, it's a criminal mind at work. I don't think a Democratic president, who will be privy to the illegal activities of Bush, will claim those powers because they are too outrageous. I could never see a Hillary or Obama expanding renditions, for example, but a Giulianni would, with a certain glee. Romney? Thompson?

"I want to Iraq War over too, but it needs to end the right way, and Congress is not the place where fine-tuned foreign policy can be made."

Exactly. Which is why Congress allows the president to veto funding for the troops and then lets HIM figure out what to do next.

"We need a president, one dedicated to peace not war, to do pull this off right, so I'm perfectly happy to wait another year and a half to begin."

Frankly, I find that attitude reprehensible. There are Americans and Iraqis dying over there. Men, women and children--many, if not most of them, utterly innocent. Easy for you to sit on your La-Z-Boy and oversee the event with the calm, rational eye of one who's not touched by the suffering.

"The ghastlier this whole business looks in hindsight the less likely it will ever be repeated."

Wow. Just a bunch of faceless numbers for you, right? No humans were harmed in the making of this political point? Just wow...

We still have time to get some guarantees of Kurdish autonomy and protection of Sunni Arab interests from the Iranians

You could trade that guarantee even steven for a promise from Albert Gonzales to tell the truth and come out way ahead.

Any Kurd can tell you that their only friends are the mountains. We have long supported Turkey's genocide of the Kurds.

Iranians protect the Sunnis?

Yeah. Right.

We need to leave. We been doing way too much protecting.

Best, Terry

I disagree...

In mid-1944, it should have been crystal clear to most Germans that they were going to lose the war. But millions more had to die before Germans capitulated.

German leaders chose to send millions more to their deaths. In addition, these German soldiers chose to serve.

In early 1945, it should have been clear to the Japanese that their little war was going nowhere. But things had to get a lot worse before the war could end...

Japanese leaders chose to send millions more to their deaths. In addition, these Japanese soldiers chose to serve.

Now, one could argue that the Germans were brainwashed by a charismatic megalomaniac. And, that the Japanese were culturally indoctrinated to not question authority.  However, that still does not negate the choices these people still had. It might have been a difficult choice, it might have even been life-threatening; but the choice was still there.

It seems that many - if not most - chose either apathy, fear, or a desire to do more harm to fellow human beings.

It's all about the power of denial. Some people are better at denying reality and need a much stronger kick in the backside. Sad but true.

Agreed.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

Gore's 50% of the vote doesn't mean anything in a General Election. We have the Electoral College.

Going back in time... here are some popular vote percentages and electoral college vote percentages:

  • 1980 - Ronald Reagan - 51.6% popular, 91% electoral college.
  • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - 59.2% popular, 97.6% electoral college.
  • 1988 - Bush Senior - 53.9% popular, 79.2% electoral college.
  • 1992 - Bill Clinton - 43.3% popular, 68.8 % electoral college.
  • 1996 - Bill Clinton - 49.95% popular, 70.5% electoral college.
  • 2000 - Bush little - 48.2% popular, 50.4% electoral college.

Nader received ZERO electoral college votes. Perot did much better than Nader in 1992 (19% popular) and 1996 (9% popular), and yet also received ZERO electoral college votes.

The elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000 show that one doesn't even need to get a majority of the popular vote to receive the needed 270 electoral college votes.

However, I do agree that it there are much bigger reasons for Gore losing than just Nader. Gore's bad campaigning (like Kerry's) and the Florida recount hold much more sway in my mind.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

Re: In mid-1944, it should have been crystal clear to most Germans that they were going to lose the war. But millions more had to die before Germans capitulated. In early 1945, it should have been clear to the Japanese that their little war was going nowhere. But things had to get a lot worse before the war could end...

One big difference though: Both Germany and Japan knew that as soon as they surrendered they would be occupied by their enemies and perhaps subjected to various sorts of punitory retaliation. America by contrast could simply withdraw from Iraq (no surrender needed) and there would be no real consequencse to the US itself, albeit the consequences in the Middle East are a big question mark. But there's no practical reason for Americans to be stubborn about this as there was for Germany and Japan in WWII.

Re: Frankly, I find that attitude reprehensible. There are Americans and Iraqis dying over there.

To quote a couple of famous American generals: "War is cruelty and you cannot refine it" and "It is well that war is so terrible lest we grow too fond of it." As I said, the Iraq War needs to end but the details of that ending matters very much. It can be a bad, nasty end (there will be no good end) or it can be a horrific catastrophic end. I frankly would not trust George Bush to shut off a DVD player the right way, let alone bring a war to a conclusion (which he shows no intention of doing and I doubt even cutting off funds would affect his stubborness; he'd just find the money elsewhere). I think we (and the rest of the world, including Iraq) will be far better off if we wait for a more capable and dedicated president to do this job. The minor trickle of deaths we are now seeing could easily turn into a tsunami if this is not handled right.

Re: Just a bunch of faceless numbers for you, right? No humans were harmed in the making of this political point?

One does not use terms like "ghastly" or "horrific" in referrence to mere numbers. Good grief, reread what I wrote. I think the problem here is that you are blind to the potentials of the future and perhaps think that as soon as the last American leaves Iraq (no matter how that happens) the Good Will And Peace Fairy will magically appear and turn the country into Shangri-La. Uh-uh, that's not how it will work. My intention here is actually humane: I am counselling that we avoid a far, far worse calamity by exercizing a bit of patience and reason now rather than engaging in a blind stampede for the exit and not giving a hoot what we trample on the way out. And once again, there is no way Congress can force George Bush to do this anyway (no, cutting off money WILL NOT WORK!) so the point is quite moot.

I have been reluctant to agree to legislation to defund the war. I have now decided that this is the only way for the Democrats to act--in unison--against Bush. I'll e-mail my Senator today.

I "think" for the time being I'm going to keep what I'll do if HRC gets the nomination a deep dark secret (or maybe I'll just fib about it).  Here's the reasoning... If I say I won't vote for her under any circumstances, she has no incentive to rethink any of her positions and issue a mea culpa and pledge on the ones I find problematic, to say the least.  If I say I will vote for her against any Republican she and the Democratic Leadership folks at her side also have no incentive to move my direction.  So MHO maybe its best I keep them guessing a bit longer.

For the rest of you... I send monthly money to Obama, Edwards, and Democracy for America, and occasionally to Act Blue, which should let you weigh odds on who might get my vote.  <grinmode></grinmode>

aMike

Me three... I'm a Minnesotan in exile.  :-)

aMike

SeeDee
Thanks, hrebendorf, for your characterization of JFP311's remarks as 'reprehensible'...For those of us who live every day with the thought, even sometimes a remote thought, that the 'phone ringing might bring sad news, I wonder if the guy has any idea of the contempt his blase attitude generates?

I'm a little more direct than you, hrebendorf.....Eff Yu Cee Kay you, JFP311, and all the rest of you un-feeling thoughtless morons who see a 'year and a half' more of this senseless Iraqi slaughter as a policy to be embraced.

So you believe that the Germans and the Japanese thought, well, we're going to lose the war anyway, so why not go out with a bang?

Nope. Not at all what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is that people get caught up in a plethora of reasons... Pride, ego, depression, apathy, panic, groupthink, etc.

Same reason why so many people hold onto losing stocks and other financial assets. Sometimes people don't know when to step back and remove oneself from the situation to come up with objective choices.

Same reason why sidewalk traffic flows in a certain way, especially in busy cities in New York.

Political leaders, especially, seem to have this breaker in their brain when it comes to saving face. How many egregious lies and rationales have we heard from our own politicians, when it would have been so much better just to come clean?  Or throw money and money and more money at a problem, without stepping back and looking at other alternatives.  Or continue to "stay the course" even though it's obvious the course we're on will lead us over a cliff?

Prime examples are the Sanford prison experiment and, especially, the Milgram experiment.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

Ok, for some reason, I can't edit my last response. This is what I wanted to add:

This exerpt from the Wikipedia entry on the Milgram experiment, in my opinion, illustrates what I'm talking about with regards to choice. The following was a letter from a former participant of the experiment, written to Dr. Milgram:

 

While I was a subject [participant] in 1964, though I believed that I was hurting someone, I was totally unaware of why I was doing so. Few people ever realize when they are acting according to their own beliefs and when they are meekly submitting to authority. ... To permit myself to be drafted with the understanding that I am submitting to authority's demand to do something very wrong would make me frightened of myself. ... I am fully prepared to go to jail if I am not granted Conscientious Objector status. Indeed, it is the only course I could take to be faithful to what I believe. My only hope is that members of my board act equally according to their conscience...

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.

Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity
Where everybody knows your name...
unless you use a pseudonym

SeeDee

Your attempt to see some analogy in the Germany of l944 and the Japan of 'early 1945' is lost in the facts relevant to that era.

Both the populations of Germany and Japan were under the iron-fisted control of THEIR OWN national governments whose propaganda machines continued to whip the hatreds of their people into granite convictions that utter defeat and destruction were better than voluntary surrender to foes who demanded 'unconditional surrender'.

Maybe one-third of the American public is being conned by our current Leaders, but, if the other two-thirds (or even, say, 60-percent) become vocal enough and ACTIVE enough, the imperialistic war in Iraq will end.

And, BTW, (honking the horn here) had you run up against the Japs fighting the 'little war' at Leyte Gulf, Luzon, Iwo and Okinawa, as I did, you would not have characterized it with the adjective "little".

There are plenty of cultural reasons why a German-Japanese analogy is a difficult one but that does not mean it's entirely unfounded or impossible.

Your suggestion that these two countries propaganda machines were still capable of "whipping the hatred of their people into granite convictions" I believe overly states their capabilities in the waning months of either country before their surrender. In Germany you found a citizenry who were jobless, homeless and destitute that simply wanted the war to be over. Any vestiges of the heady collective group-think from prior to the war was replaced with shell-shock and simple survival for themselves and their families. You could even find that sentiment within the ranks of the general soldier population. Although you can make a case for diehards capitalizing on the fear generated by the prospect of the Russians overrunning their country and what that would mean for them. But the chaotic state of the Reich in the waning months of the war makes the suggestion that the propaganda operations were functioning anywhere close to as effectively as say during the years leading up to and during the beginning of the war is unrealistic. Germany was in fact a rather chaotic place at the end of the war with many of the top Nazi leadership either in hiding or fleeing the country.

The Japanese people are a bit of a different story. The class system that they culturally and historically lived under precluded them from outright opposition in many ways but that does not mean that the (again homeless, jobless and destitute) citizenry were not equally desperate for the war to simply be over. I think culture/religion/politics fail to matter in conditions such as those. Any people would want the horrors that a war in your own countryside brings to end as quickly as possible. This is simple people simply wanting to survive. But the citizens in Japan were indeed much more susceptible to the propaganda provided to them by their meaningless political government or more realistically from the ruling Army class.

What can often occur in these cases is that the common citizens are rolled into the same ball as the political leadership and the militaries of warring nations. In some cases there are indeed insurgencies of diehard nationalists believing they are justly defending their homeland. But there are far more common citizens who have suffered and simply want peace. They certainly bore a heavy price for their nation's aggression during the second world war. I think it is unfair to be too harsh in judging the people of a country and holding them as equals to the governments and militaries on the scales of justice. I say this not only because I believe it to be fair but also with an eye towards my own future. Should you or I be held as an equal confederates to the crimes that our government continues to commit in Iraq? Or to the countless atrocities we've had a hand in for decades around the globe? Have we not been lied to? Are we not victims of a well oiled propaganda machine? Where we not whipped up into nationalist rage after 9-11 and set loose upon the world? Are we not sitting back mostly silent as Gitmo, renditions, black sites, illegal wire taps, gross war profiteering and wanton slaughter and destruction are occurring right before our very eyes? Many blamed (and still do) the German civilian population for allowing the holocaust to occur. Should we too be held in permanent international scorn for our inaction during these black days in our nation's history? I don't know the answer to this for certain but I do feel sorrow and guilt. And I hope that one day I'm not held criminally accountable for what my country's government has done.

"The minor trickle of deaths we are now seeing..."

Tell that to the families of the next American soldiers killed over there. Tell them why the loss of a father or mother, brother or sister was "minor". Explain to them how it's actually good that their loved ones died now, because in the long run, we'll all be better off if a few more soldiers bite it. Explain to them how George Bush wasn't qualified to bring their family member home anyway. I'm sure they'll feel much better and probably think you're a frikkin' genius. Your blase' disregard for the critical nature of the situation is really quite astounding. The Good Will and Peace Fairy is not going to appear in Iraq anytime in the near or distant future. But our presence in the region virtually guarantees more suicide bombings of innocent civilians. At least without us there, the Iraqis can begin the process of rooting out their real enemies instead of worrying about the invasion of a foreign army. You seem to believe that they want us there. If so, you're completely and utterly wrong.

"My intention here is actually humane: I am counselling that we avoid a far, far worse calamity by exercizing a bit of patience and reason now rather than engaging in a blind stampede for the exit and not giving a hoot what we trample on the way out. And once again, there is no way Congress can force George Bush to do this anyway (no, cutting off money WILL NOT WORK!)"

You're a Republican troll. The far, far worse calamity you're talking about is already taking place. Unless, of course, you're talking about losing access to Iraq's oil. In which case, you're a Republican troll. And if you can please explain to everyone how an unfunded war works, I'm certain the entire world will be most grateful.

"Make no mistake about it. War is a sometimes necessary evil, but it is always evil."

--Jimmy Carter

You know what kills me about people who post in that blasé manner on this topic is how they are nearly always unapologetic about the fact that we were lied into this illegal war in the first place. And they do not see how that makes GWB literally guilty of murdering thousands of American citizens and soldiers in addition to uncounted hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who have paid the ultimate price for our nation's stupidity and gullibility.

Adding to that assault on the conscience is that every single argument they make defending the position of "staying the course" with "patience" so we "don't fight them over here" is complete and utter tripe. Patently so. And in every case they've told reprehensible lies in order to sell their tripe fantasy as real and as progress.

It's an affront to humanity...

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