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Things Are Swell in Baghdad

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There is a piece of disinformation circulating on the net claiming that Washington, DC is more dangerous than Iraq. BULLSHIT!! Here’s the claim:

There has been a monthly average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theatre of operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2,112 deaths. That gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers.
The firearm death rate in Washington D.C. is 80.6 per 100,000 persons for the same period. That means that you are about 25% more likely to be shot and killed in the U.S. Capital than you are in Iraq .
Conclusion: The U.S. should pull out of Washington

Now for the facts. Go here. The actual Firearms Death Rate per 100,000 is 31.2 . That makes DC 1st among 50 states and the District. [1st of 51] Not even close to the alleged figure of 80.6. But most of our troops are not dying from gunshot wounds. They are being blown to bits from roadside bombs and mines.

Oh, by the way. Guess what the death rate per 100,000 is from Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices in the District of Columbia? ZERO. The nimrods circulating the nonsense that Washington, D.C. is more dangerous than Iraq deserve a one way, all expenses paid trip to Baghdad.

So how are things in Baghdad?

The Associated Press reports:

BAGHDAD (AP) - Three suicide truck bombers targeted members of an ancient religious sect in northwestern Iraq on Tuesday, killing at least 20 people, while the crash of an American transport helicopter near an air base in Anbar killed five U.S. servicemembers.

Four more U.S. soldiers were reported killed in separate attacks - three in an explosion near their vehicle Monday in the northwestern Ninevah province and another who was died of wounds from combat in western Baghdad.

In a separate attack, a fourth suicide truck bomber struck a strategic bridge on the main highway linking Baghdad with the northern city of Mosul, killing at least 10, police said. The span was bombed three months ago and only one lane had reopened, according to the police officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information.

Yep. Sure sounds like your typical day in DC.


53 Comments

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SeeDee

Whatever the death-rate from crime, from traffic accidents, from suicide...or from any other cause in Washington, D.C., Sheboygan, WI, Boulder, CO, or any 'Podunk' town in the U.S. of A. is totally irrelevant as a comparison to what goes on in Iraq.

The deaths recorded daily in the U.S. of A. were not sacrificed to enable the big oil corporations to bolster their profits and/or oil reserves....Nor were they suffered to allow more war-profiteering from Bush/Cheney-friendly 'blood for money' businesses.

Comparing civilian victims, even in D.C., our war zone if you will, to occupying soldiers is ridiculous. How many of the D.C. fatalities were wearing body armor, carrying M-16s and on alert to being attacked? What is the death rate of Iraqis, in Baghdad, outside of the Green Zone compared to before our invasion? Their desperation is showing.

Four suicide truck bombers kill 30 (20 + 10)?

Would they be same bombers responsible for "Four Suicide Bombings Kill 175 in Iraq"?

I understand the earlier figure is more credible -- came from Gen. Petraeus, himself. 

To be fair, they said "at least" 20. "at least" 10...

My bad.  When will I ever learn?

Soon . . .

~OGD~

~

Uh Larry . . .

There is one key line I agree with though, but no for the reason given in that internet chain-mail crap; the U.S. should pull out of Washington and leave all the political hacks walking around with their collective heads stuck up there arses while the rest of the states flip 'em all the fickle-finger of f**king fate!

~OGD~

One thing the two cities DO have in common:
"Georgie" and Dick "The Monster" Cheney wouldn't walk down the streets of EITHER without being surrounded by "protection!"

Larry, good morning.  Can you provide a link to which website(s) are circulating that crap.  I'm willing to take a little time to correct the information in those which have comments columns, and I bet a lot of other readers here are, too.  Maybe even link back to your column here.  If nothing else that will make the advertisers happy here, and some of the persons who write here have the talent to annoy those liars and the genes to enjoy doing it thoroughly.

aMike

The issue here isn't to refute that viral email bullshit, because it's patently bullshit: the apples/oranges comparison of 'soldiers in Iraq' to the general population, the not-very-veiled implication that DC should be abandoned (one thing wingnut middle-Americans know about DC is that it's a black city), etc.

Trying to refute the shoddy comparisons wastes time. It's just 'trolling'. What matters is who's doing it.

Where do these circular emails come from? What's their origin and distribution? Is it someone transcribing Limbaugh? I doubt it: it sounds too literate. Is it some 501(c)(3) wingnut welfare organisation churning them out? That seems more likely. I'd speculate that it's a bunch of pasty Young Republican interns who'd shit their pants at the thought of serving in Iraq.

This one has been going around for years. Powerline had it at one point. For one thing, it gets the concept of a rate totally confused. Rates are per unit of time. It mixes and matches months and years and tries to apply a single rate to different period lengths. That's why the 30/80 thing is messed up.

Just google "Iraq Safer than Washington D.C."

amike said:

Larry, good morning. Can you provide a link to which website(s) are circulating that crap. I'm willing to take a little time to correct the information in those which have comments columns....

amike, a noble casue, but, you should know that no amount of factual material ever "settles" anything once the nuttier right-wing elements decide to latch onto it

 

It's all over the web, including debunkings.

I think it was George Will who once defended something by comparing it to how much the country spends on chewing gum each year. This kind of bullshit just reminds me of how simple minded and easily led their followers are.

Nice to read you Mr. Johnson. This nutso stuff has been around for years, and is absolutely ridiculous.

The rabid right wing has never troubled to let facts get in the way of it's negative propaganda.

CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com

Could someone just mention please that U.S. troops are not the only ones dying in Iraq? Innocent Iraqi citizens are most of the people getting blown up over there and we shouldn't ever forget that. Especially after a day like yesterday.

Any of those wingnuts want to compare the civilian deaths in Iraq with the civilian deaths in D.C.? I didn't think so.

I make it a point when receiving these viral e-mails to 'reply all' so that everyone on the wingnut's distribution list gets a copy of my response. If Snopes debunks it, I include a link and relevant text. If it is otherwise debunkable, I debunk it, citing reputable sources and logic. I then call the sender something on the order of "an easily misled dumbass". That, and always send it from an e-mail address that the sender doesn't know is mine. That way, I stay on the mailing list for the next piece of right-wing drivel. It drives 'em crazy as their only choice is to stop sending the stuff or continue to be embarassed.

That sort of commentary has been repeated many times, though from my view not that much lately, what with the incredible level of death and mayhem that is Iraq under actual Bush control and Republican media control.

The key point or points I think are subliminal - the racist aspect. Washington D.C. is understood by most Americans to be predominantly African American. That is, the regular population of the city. Not the halls of government of course. So suggestions of high levels of violence are suggestions of a violent nature in people of anything less than lily white color - the Bush Republican Iraq war of choice and its murderous nature should be ignored as an example of whiter than white violence loving, again, of course.

But there's a second racist aspect and that can be seen in who the Baghdad death rate stats look at - American military only. Iraqis are ignored. Their deaths literally don't count. So the reality of the implications of the statement are that if you venture out on the streets of Washington D.C. in a style made famous by John McCain and Revoltin' Joe Lieberman, with armor up and over the wazhoo and hundreds of heavily armed military personnel with massive fire power - including circling helicopter gunships, then you're as likely to be killed as if you dared walk the streets of Baghdad. Even more than the statistical lies and undercount of real deaths that Johnson's early report represents, that's the gross lie in the repeated meme of dangerous Washington D.C. and "safe" Baghdad.

Note also that the figures used for comparison are not equivalent. The killed rate figure for American military personnel is a monthly rate. The one for D.C. civilians, as grossly inaccurate as it is, is a yearly rate. So, even using the bullshit figures of the Republican email spread propaganda, there are 720 American troops killed per year compared to 80.6 D.C. civilians. Not too much an attempt to deceive and manipulate.

Gee, the troops in Iraq must feel much safer now.

Larry, the distortion you've highlighted is worse, literally by an order of magnitude, than you indicate.

In fact, the DC numbers are per year. The 60 per 100,000 in Iraq is per month.

That is, it's off by a factor of 12.

Oh, I know...but tilting can be fun, and it is probably equally beneficial in terms of pinkie aerobics as Mavis Bacon practice exercises are.  :-)  I've never tried being a troll on a right-wing website before.  Perhaps I should have a shot at it before passing to my reward.  <wink></wink>

aMike

Exactly right JJF. As a corollary, the number of military deaths as a result of combat in Washington D.C.: 0

If more than 1000 civilians a month were being shot and killed in D.C., well, let's just say there would be no long waits to get into the Air and Space Museum.

First of all, I need to point out that this little comparison is indirectly stating that the number of our troops lost is some how an "acceptable" number. There is a "what's the big deal" quality to it.

I would also extend on Amos' post above. I think the number of troops ought to be compared to the number of police officers killed in DC, as well as directly comparing the civilian deaths in each city.

Let's pretend Iraq is a big school system, and all the seventh graders in a large city, say, Washington DC are our soldiers.

Over the last five years, every seventh grade class in the city has had at least one student killed, and at least three more lost arms, legs, faces, body functions, and probably five more are mentally shattered by the trauma of their experiences.

And if the civilians are the other grades, K-6 and 8-12, the entire kindergarten has been wiped out, and grades 9-12 have fled the school system.

If this were the case, would you say the schools were safe?

The right way to look at what these very non-gallant chickenhawks are saying about domestic violence being more dangerous than serving in Iraq is…

How many of the troopers who died or were maimed the last six months in Iraq would have died or been maimed by domestic violence if they were at home with their families? And the correct answer is almost none of them. What a black hearted insult to their service and risk!

That sort of remark by Limbaugh and other assorted non combatant garbage mouthed, right wing, fatherless liars minimizes the sacrifice, death and carnage suffered by our troopers and their families, those cowards most of whom have never served a day in there country's uniform should rot in hell for their bravery with other peoples lives and limbs.

The right wing and their ilk are forever trying to ameliorate American dead in Iraq by comparing those that died in other wars, or as Britt Hume of FOX did when he compared those who die in traffic accidents in Calif with troops who die in Iraq.

Bush and his right wing cohort got us into the killing fields of Iraq and now they try to trivialize the consequences.

Ever ready to send others to war, they hide beneath their desks when the call to arms sounds.

I despise these people, cowards that they are.

Fiasco by Thomas Ricks (paperback ed at 170) reports that Rumsfeld tried this exact same fraud with statistics back on June 19 2003. "He also engaged in a verbal sleight of hand about the 42 US soldiers who had died in Iraq in the previous six weeks .... 'Look, you've got to remember that, if Washington D.C. were the size of Baghdad,we would be having something like 215 murders a month,' he said. 'There's going to be violence in a big city,. It's 5 and 1/2 million people.' ... What Rumsfeld was looking at were the statistics on the deaths of U.S. troops - the people trying to bring security to the area. So the equivalent would not be the murder rate in the general population but among law enforcement personnel. If 215 police officers were being killed monthly in Washington D.C., it would be regarded as a major crisis ..."

It goes on and on, coming up with failiures in the parallel, and you all hit plenty of theme, so just a couple more. Those who survive in DC did not have the benefit of a walled compound, military vehicles, close convoys, and body armor. Civilians in DC mostly have electricity. Few have gone into exile. A fair number, even in black America under Bush, have jobs.

Anhow, makes you wonder why, if things are so hunky-dory, the wingnuts are so sure that if we leave, it'll be a disaster and a triumph for Al Qaeda. Suddenly they get in touch with the reality-based community when they need it to score illogical points.  

John

http://www.haberarts.com/

I have no doubt this may have been circulating for years. However, a good friend (and former CIA analyst) still working in the government sent it to me yesterday. He didn't believe it but it was making the rounds in his email circle of acquaintances.

I'll pull up the link later.

Their desperation is showing.

They've been doing these phony comparisons since the beginning, as other have pointed out. Their desperation has always shown, like a flare by a car wreck.

What I don't like is the effect these kinds of things will have on the length of the war. When the soldiers read them, I'm sure they won't want to come home. I'm sure they're all begging for "more tours of duty, more tours, anything, but please don't send me home where I'm sure to be killed. BTW could I get my wife and kids over here too, where it's safe?"

Yeah, and the guy who sits next to me got an email yesterday saying Mars was going to be as big as the moon in a few days.

So be sure not to miss that once in a lifetime astronomical event. Oh, and mind the gravity.

Someone should really update this entry. As franklyo stated just above, the story is wrong by a factor of 12. they are comparing yearly deaths in DC to monthly deaths in iraq.

That is on top of the already bogus comparison of all civilian violent deaths in DC to US military deaths in iraq. the proper comparison to support the conclusion of "pulling out of DC" would be police and government violent deaths in DC, which i'm sure is a small fraction of the number they cite.

I wonder how many of the 31.2 per 100K in DC were wearing Kevlar, armed with assault rifles, coordinated with aerial surveillance, and supported by combat training. Also, I wonder how many had access to on-site medical care, and how many victims were wounded instead of killed.

None of that even mentions the casualty rate among Iraqis.

Sophistry in the face of death is intellectual sin.

Point of arithmetic: a quick calculation shows that the 60/100,000 in Iraq is a monthly rate. Since the population of DC is a bit less than 600,000, a firearm death rate of 80/100,000 per month would translate into roughly 5500 deaths per year. If true (of course it isn't) this would be incredibly high: in the entire US there are around 30,000 gun related deaths each year (~19,000 suicides, ~10,000 murders, a few hundred accidents) which is itself appalling in an international context.

~

I wish to take this moment to thank both CVilleDem and Chuck Keller for their rating of my comment above. And to truly show my appreciation-- you two have won an all expenses paid trip to the Silly as it Seems online chap book. It was penned by an old acquaintance of mine from the 60s and it's just recently popped up on the internet.

If you were able to decipher the irony in that comment of mine you rated, no doubt you'll get the gist of what you'll find on page 15 at Silly as it Seems.

Enjoy... and make sure you following the links around that site.

~OGD~

Four suicide bombers struck nearly simultaneously at communities of a small Kurdish sect in northwestern Iraq late Tuesday, killing at least 175 people and wounding 200 more, Iraqi military and local officials said.

Here's a clue you might use, Ellen: Baghdad is not a community of a small Kurdish sect in northwestern Iraq.

FOREIGNID: 288340
FOREIGNPARENTID: 0
FOREIGNCOMMENTERID: 3170
AUTHOR: Abdul Abulbul Amir
DATE: 08/15/2007 05:06:22 PM

Squeaky,

It's an honest mistake. In scanning the news, you wouldn't think, "That must be a different four suicide truck bombers." The death toll from this one is now at 250 and could double to 500 killed. And what does it say that these bombings are not even the top headlines in the papers or lead stories on the nightly news? We don't see the pictures of the 50 to 100 Iraqis that are tortured and killed daily. The death and destruction is reduced to abstract numbers and even the numbers are distorted.

OGD,  Thanks for the sentiment, but when I clicked on your link, my brand new, 2 HOUR old computer immediately crashed and I had to reboot it.  Just thought you'd want to know. 

Jan

The tragic irony of this myth about DC being more dangerous than Baghdad--particularly the point about firearms--is that US soldiers are killing themselves with firearms at alarming rates.

Army Suicides Highest in 26 Years

WASHINGTON — Army soldiers committed suicide last year at the highest rate in 26 years, and more than a quarter did so while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a new military report.

The report, obtained by The Associated Press ahead of its scheduled release Thursday, found there were 99 confirmed suicides among active duty soldiers during 2006, up from 88 the previous year and the highest number since the 102 suicides in 1991 at the time of the Persian Gulf War.

The suicide rate for the Army has fluctuated over the past 26 years, from last year's high of 17.3 per 100,000 to a low of 9.1 per 100,000 in 2001.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20070815/army-suicides/

The definition for depraved indifference would fit these men:

From the November 28, 2006 broadcast of Premiere Radio Networks' The Rush Limbaugh Show:

HEDGECOCK: They're calling it. In other words, it's like Florida for [Democratic presidential candidate Al] Gore. This is -- you know, this is -- they're calling the election. It's now a civil war. Boy, I'm glad we've clarified that. Let's see. Did they call Bosnia and Kosovo a civil war? Huh?

Did they -- did they call what's going on -- and by the way, the murder rate -- whatever you hear, whenever you hear a story about Baghdad about blowing up, about -- you know, today two car bombs went off in the entire country. The murder rate in Baghdad, the people being killed in Baghdad, is lower than the murder rate of Washington, D.C. Is Washington, D.C., in a civil war? NBC has not called it, so I dare not say.

http://mediamatters.org/items/200611300002

I cheated.  I went and looked before I deciphered the irony.  Thanks for the link.  I've bookmarked it for returns when I wish to remember my own yute in that era.

aMike

(1) Bush/Cheney and their dead ender AEI/Republican sociopath supporters are not losing any sleep over The Decider's divisive decision to start the Decisive 21st Century War To Save Civilization.

(2) Don't give the Neo-Cons any ideas about IED's going off in DC, remember who got the anthrax letters, and who started taking anti-anthrax CIPRO a week before the first anthrax letter was mailed.

There has been a monthly average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theatre of operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2,112 deaths. That gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers. The firearm death rate in Washington D.C. is 80.6 per 100,000 persons for the same period. That means that you are about 25% more likely to be shot and killed in the U.S. Capital than you are in Iraq . Conclusion: The U.S. should pull out of Washington

2,122 deaths in 22 months is 1,152 per 160,000 people per year. That's 720 per 100,000, not 60 per 100,000. So the claimant is already off by a factor of 12, meaning they're comparing monthly rates to annual rates.

In 2006, the total number of homicides in DC was 169 in a place with 581,530 people. That's a homicide rate of 29 per 100,000.

The death rate among US soldiers in Iraq is therefore 25 times that of the homicide rate in DC.

While on the subject of suicide though:

Iraq Slogger - August 13, 2007
Suicide: 3% of US Deaths in Iraq
118 Troops Took Own Lives in Iraq,
an Unknown Number After They Returned Home

When did CapitOL become CapitAL

Someone enlighten me.

Oops, Kudos to Amos Anan, franklyo, social liberal and Andy McLennan, too, for pointing out that this right wing math is ridiculous!

I sincerely hope that's not typical for the CIA, simply taking numbers for granted without checking if the facts and the math compute!
:-(

Former CIA analyst? Did his job center on anal, instead of analysis? My a**...

"I'm willing to take a little time to correct the information in those which have comments columns, and I bet a lot of other readers here are, too. Maybe even link back to your column here."

That's a good idea, 'amike'. After pointing out the errors in this horeseshit at NoQuarter, I added comments at some other websites I found through google, too. But pls don't link to Larry's story, because he gives a very misleading answer to the spin, not recognizing that the math is totally fraudulent. Better use this answer by DailyKos blogger 'puroprana':
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/8/15/0429/70402

Also, you can find my try at debunking, plus some other good links at http://caffeinesoldier.blogspot.com/2007/08/dont-fall-for-spin-iraq-is-more.html

For finding websites that spread this spin, use a google search like this one:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22The+U.S.+should+pull+out+of+Washington%22&btnG=Google+Search

Oops, replying to the wrong comment, sry!
Moved my crap to the right place.

Not bad, but where does it say 80.6 per year? It says, in 'the same period', and that's 22 months. However, actual yearly homicide rates for DC are about 30/100000.

The 'correct' comparison (but still using the mysterious numbers) would be 1320/80.6=1637% (because 1320=(2112/160000)*100000).

Yes, it's quite a spin to say that just because Washington DC allegedly is s***ed up, it's ok to s*** up Iraq, too. However, the most urgent problem with this spin is that the math is fraudulent and so the whole conclusion is wrong! In reality, of course Iraq is much more dangerous than DC, and the correct numbers show that, too.

Hello? Wake up! This is a fraud! Check the math!

I'm more than a bit shocked to see how naively many commenters here discuss this piece of horseshit as though the anonymous writer at least made a valid point. NO, he didn't! And, I have to say, it is absolutely foolish to take such spins at face value without checking the math and the numbers. You really should know better by now, after all those years of shamelessly lying by right wingers. :-(

In this case here, as commenter 'tan15' rightly pointed out, the math is totally screwed up. The anonymous author compared the monthly rate of casualties in Iraq per 100,000(and very old numbers!) with an alleged 80.6 deaths by armed violence /100,000 in DC in "the same period" (= 22 months). We don't know where he got that number, nobody so far has been able to find anything even remotely high in the last years. However, by messing the comparison up, he is actually comparing one apple with 22 oranges. This is obvious, and it is a bad surprise so many people don't notice it right away.

Correcting the fraudulent calculation (but still using the mysterious numbers), we can find that the 'correct' comparison is 1320/80.6=1637% (because 1320=(2112/160000)*100000).
So, even if 'anonymous' got his numbers right (that is questionable!) Iraq is more than 15 times more dangerous than Washington DC!

One last point: I'm totally disappointed about Larry who is helping the anonymous writer in spreading his spin by posting his story in at least 3 blogs (No Quarter, Booman Tribune, and here). Larry read the comments at NQ, so he knows that the real problem with this fraud aren't the IED casualties, but that the numbers don't compute. But he hasn't posted a addendum pointing this out at any of his stories yet. So, he's responsible for numerous more readers now believing that the numbers are at least comparable and that Iraq isn't much more dangerous than DC. You should be ashamed for letting this stupidity stand uncorrected, Larry!
:-(

P.S.: Anybody who does a fast google search on this shit will find it has already been debunked, for instance in November 2005 by Brad DeLong. Only lazy bloggers wouldn't notice that.

P.P.S.: Sry for being maybe a bit harsh, but that serious bloggers are still discussing this shit, without noticing the fraud, really p***es me off. Of course, everybody can have a lazy day once in a while and fall for this spin, but why the reluctance to correct the error? |-(

The only "correct" way to put this foolish arguement forth is to compare civilian city-dwellers to same.  Since we don't even keep an accurate count of dead Iraqi's, the whole thing is moot!

What a ridiculous buch of BS!  I wonder if the people circulating this would like to go to Baghdad and have an evening out -- do they have anything like the Kennedy Center?  They could just walk over there like so many DC residents do.  I'm sure they could work around the production complication of not having any electricity!

Bush and his cronies, who know personally what it feels like to be too scared to go to war, and how to do what it takes to get out of it; have the nerve to send young people who happen to be brave (and in my opinion completely misguided for having joined in the first place) to a war they dreamed up to enrich themselves.  It is people who don't see that about the Bushes and Cheneys who lap up these childish and inaccurate comparisons. 

I really DO wish there would be justice; karma; because it doesn't look like there's going to be an impeachment!

Jan

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