Just to be clear
Suppose you are the President of the United States. The CIA tells you that they've spotted Osama bin Laden having tea under a tent in Afghanistan. Would you launch an airstrike? Suppose you are told that he's in a factory in Sudan. Would you launch an airstrike?
Didn't both situations occur during the Clinton Administration? And wasn't the President criticized for not launching the attack in case one and for launching it in case two? What principle is at work here? Surely hot pursuit of Osama anywhere in the world is or ought to be the American policy; whether the President would inform the leader of the nation in which Osama resides is, under current policy, apparently a subjective judgment but no one could expect to be forgiven by Americans for letting the killer escape.
However, in no event is the topic being rationally discussed by anyone other than Senator Obama, whose mistake apparently was to state the truth about any President's policy. August is the month of heat without light. Governor Romney thinks that if Pakistan is harboring Osama we should stand by and hope for a turn of events? Senator Dodd thinks it is rash to go after Osama in Pakistan -- but in some other country that would be the necessary action? Time for a vacation folks; let's talk more clearly to each other in September.













Hillary was still harping on this at the debate tonight (with assists from Biden and Dodd). I think Obama fumbled his response, which should have been "I guess you, like George Bush, are willing to let Osama bin Laden, killer of 3,000 innocent American citizens, escape again because you're worried about offending a man who's happy letting him hide in plain sight?"
I hope Hillary keeps up the scolding, schoolmarmish pose. This is a pretty stupid issue that the media is worrying like a puppy with an old sock, but I think the longer she argues that we should favor diplomacy over killing bin Laden, the worse she looks.
August 7, 2007 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
^I didn't think Obama flubbed the answer at all, he seemed on point.
But even more important was after Dodd and Clinton said something along the lines of, "well, me too, but I don't talk about it," was Obama comin back and saying, "hey, this is an election, and the American people need to be involved in the decision-making"
Enough of "trust me" politics on foreign policy.
August 7, 2007 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama nailed the response. He knew the question would come up, he was well-prepared, and most importantly, his response was both substantive and 100 percent correct, and he got strong applause for it from a crowd that was supposed to hold its tongue. Another strong showing from Obama.
(Full disclosure: I am an Obama supporter and have contributed 55 dollars to his campaign).
August 7, 2007 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suppose the CIA says he's hiding in Scotland, and Gordon Brown tells us not to act. Do we do so anyway? What happens to the Brown government when the Obama White House ignores it? That's what Clinton & Dodd were getting at. It's easy to say "attack Sudan" or "attack Afghanistan" because we didn't have anything at stake there; it's not so easy to say "attack Britain" or "attack South Korea."
August 8, 2007 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
For this scenario to make any sense, you'd first have to explain why the UK (or South Korea) would want to have OBL on its territory and do nothing about it. So?
The truth is that out of the UK, South Korea, and Pakistan, only one country is known for training, supporting and sheltering Islamic militants and terrorists. And it ain't the UK or South Korea.
August 8, 2007 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama states the policy in ways that make it much more difficult to carry out. We need cooperation from the government of Pakistan because a portion of its population is willing to harbor Al Qaeda. Just how much 'actionable intelligence' do you think that Pakistan is now willing to share with us?
From what other source do you now think we are going obtain this intelligence?
Obama has forthrightness but no judgment and does not appear to understand how diplomacy works and the role of calculated ambiguity.
A portion of our population is always glad to hear that we are going to be tough and go after someone.
August 8, 2007 3:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed, except for the word "another." I think this was Obama's *first* strong showing, in any of the debates.
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
August 8, 2007 4:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't both situations occur during the Clinton Administration? And wasn't the President criticized for not launching the attack in case one and for launching it in case two?
Damn. Nowadays, Clinton should get a medal just for looking in the same country where Osama was sipping his tea. This loony tune attacked a completely different country. No wonder Pakistan isn't worried about the US invading.
August 8, 2007 4:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Letting Osama live has been central to the maintenance of the Bush Regime.
Had he been killed or captured in Tora Bora or anywhere else in Afghanistan or Pakistan, had the Taliban been allowed to give him up to keep the American troops out of Afghanistan, El Presidente would have had to try to rule without being a military dictator. He would have been less a failure as a president, because after four years as a civilian, he would have been thrown out.
Instead, he has been allowed to rule in true fascist form, using the "war president" mantle to perform the enforcement activities that are relegated to "government" under true fascist schemes. The corporatization of the state was Mussolini's answer to changing the social compact among Italians. It has been Bush's answer to creating the permanent Republican majority. The out of control (and out of oversight) corporatization of our government to contractors has led to the ends that Republican's wished for- all under the "unassailable" cover of the GWOT.
Is it any wonder that a military dictator that overturned an election by force of arms, has refused to release power or hold another election, has honored one of the single most active (and dangerous) nuclear proliferators in modern times, has signed a "non-agression" pact with his own citizens to allow them to shelter Osama, and still been called our "valuable ally in the war on terror"?
"President" Musharrif is no different than "President" Bush- both need Osama or his memory alive to keep their regimes stable.
Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran
August 8, 2007 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
You've got that right.
I've said this before (but that has never stopped me from repeating myself): shortly after 9/11 I was having lunch with friends and they couldn't believe that I predicted that Bush would never kill or capture OBL.
It is so patently obvious how useful OBL was and still is to the machinations of Bushco that I have serious doubts about the utility of buying into any assumptions to the contrary. Once OBL stops becoming useful, of course, he's a goner. I don't see that happening anytime soon though.
August 8, 2007 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the second situation did not occur during the Clinton administration. I believe Clinton was erroneously informed that a factory there was making weapons that were used against the US embassies in Africa, not that Bin Laden was in that factory. Also, Clinton did launch an attack against Osama's base in Afghanistan but it didn't kill Bin Laden.
Tom
August 8, 2007 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well of course the real answer is yes. But depending on the situation the right answer might very well be to deflect the question -- particularly if the right answer could cause rioting in the streets and further jeopardize the already somewhat shaky position of a government a rather large and strategically placed Muslim nation that is currently friendly to us. Diplomacy doesn't always involve coming right out and saying exactly what's on your mind you know. It's time we had people running the show who understand that. President George W. Shit-for-Brains already set Iraq's reform movement back 10 or 20 years with his drugstore cowboy claptrap about the "axis of evil." Then there was John Bolton and NK. I really think we've had enough public brain-farting on foreign policy matters recently to last us a good long while.
August 8, 2007 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but democracy kinda does. Or do you prefer to elect politicians who lie about their positions, or simply ask you to trust them on this one...and on the nuclear one...and on the summitry one...just trust them...
August 8, 2007 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
"particularly if the right answer could cause rioting in the streets and further jeopardize the already somewhat shaky position of a government a rather large and strategically placed Muslim nation that is currently friendly to us."
Another canard. Read the New Yorker of a couple of weeks ago. Musharraf's main threat politically is the secular professional class, not radical Islamists. That exchange only went to further emphasize how hidebound the Clinton, Dodd and Biden perspectives are.
August 8, 2007 7:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Tom, for the details that I couldn't remember. The loony tune I was referring to is the current occupant of the Oval Non-Office. It was a lame attempt to congratulate Clinton on not attacking a different country than the one he was told OBL was in.
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. H.L. Mencken
August 8, 2007 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reed, when you talk about communications, or even (sometimes) domestic politics, you're always enlightening...but when you wander astray into foreign policy you just become a blithering idiot.
So Dodd is to be ridiculed because he thinks that whether to launch military strikes in another country depends on the country, and our relationship to it, etc.? Yeah, that's pretty crazy. And our policy should be the "hot pursuit" (nice euphemism for invasion there, Reed) of Osama no matter where he is? Even if we've otherwise contained him strategically and no matter what the consequences to our other interests? Isn't that the ridiculous fallacy that (partly) underlay Bush's Iraq adventure?
My God, man, wipe the drool off your chin and give us a nice post on net neutrality or something.
August 8, 2007 8:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Could you find a link to that? I missed it, but would like to read...
edit: Is this it?
August 8, 2007 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Then move the scenario to Russia. They have no extradition treaties, and it's illegal to extradite according to the Russian constitution. Just follow the Litvenenko poisoning case.
Heck, Putin would probably house Obama just to piss off Dubya.
It's all well and fine to say "Sure, let's bomb a third-world country." Quite a bit different when it's a second or first world country. Especially ones with economic ties.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.
Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity.
August 8, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
My answer? No. No to airstrikes, no to military intervention. Bin Laden is a criminal, and should be dealt with through criminal justice.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.
Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity.
August 8, 2007 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes.
August 8, 2007 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Reed is the one who was not being clear. Your comment was clear.
Tom
August 8, 2007 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh thank God. Someone who's read an article in the New Yorker, here to lead us out of darkness.
And do you suppose that it's moneyed secular professional class who have mounted all those assassination attempts on Musharraf? No? Too messy? Well then surely it was they who prompted him to call a truce with the tribal areas along the Afghan border -- you know, the area where the Taliban was born and still thrive, where the Pakistani military can no longer project power and have basically given up trying to police it altogether... or maybe not. OK, well then it must be the professional class who make up the Muslim-based militias currently operating in and around Kashmir and demanding the government take a harder line with India. They're probably also the reason the State department warns Americans against traveling by means of any type of public transportation in Pakistan...
One thing your article does help to illustrate is that Musharraf can count on little support these days from any direction in Pakistan's increasingly combustible political atmosphere. I won't get into how deserving he may really be. Pakistan is edging very close to a military dictatorship in everything but name. But for now, he may also be the only thing holding the country together and the man's sitting on a powder keg. Might at least want to give some thought to what Pakistan might look like without Musharraf (or conversely, without the pretense of democracy) if we're going to continue tossing lit matches at him.
August 8, 2007 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't say you should lie. I said there are cases when you should deflect the question. There's a difference between lying and declining to give an answer to an ill-timed question. And there are times when leaders of democracies need to practice diplomacy.
August 8, 2007 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Under circumstances a Presidential candidate would be willing to use military force is not an ill-placed question, it might be the most important question you can ask. Suggesting a President should deflect on that is the height of cynicism. We're not talking about meeting Barry Bonds here, we're talking about the most wanted criminal in the world, and potential military lives.
In case you weren't aware, democracy is a dirty, messy business. We accept that the electoral process has its downside. We get bombarded with misinformation. We push everyone to the edges of the room and make them choose sides. But its also necessary, and this whole "paper over the differences (if there are any) on major issues by refusing to discuss them" is, simply, bullshit. I want to know
1-under what situations, if any, these candidates would be willing to go to war.
2-to what ends would any of these candidates go to capture Osama Bin Laden? Is it a top priority? A midlevel priority? A low priority? What resources would the candidate commit to the job? How much is the candidate willing to risk?
Obama is answering those questions. Nobody else is. Those are important questions--a large part of my decision (and those of countless others) is based on foreign policy. If what you're looking for in terms of foreign policy is a politician who refuses to tell you his/her stance on some of hte most important issues of this election, more power to you. I am not. I'm tired of politicians asking me to trust them. Its bullshit. No. I won't trust you. Show me you're worthy of trust by convincing me your priorities are in line with mine. And that means, answer the f$^*&Q#(( question.
August 8, 2007 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree to not wanting him killed. I want him captured, and military practices probably aren't well-suited to capture.
Forcing a capture tends to require overwhelming numbers and cutting off any escape. It also tends to require patience. Alternately, forces can risk personnel to hasten the result.
Calling in strikes is more likely to"splatter the mercury by hitting it with a hammer" in the phrase used by British intelligence before we first went into Afghanistan. They were worried that AQ would only scatter. That is why police don't bomb the hideout, they surround it.
August 9, 2007 5:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good Post. Thanks Reed.
Kevin Russell Cook
August 9, 2007 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
My point was, that the argument that tough talk aginst radical in Pakistan would help the seize political power is bullshit. Yes, they have the power to wreak havoc; they don't have the power to take over the government, and that is the doomsday scenario Clinton, was evoking in order to add an unnecessary layer of fear to support her criticism of Obama, a criticism which rests on nothing more than a semantic difference, IMO.
August 11, 2007 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink