Nonsense from O’Hanlon and Pollack
The Sunshine boys, Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack, are out today with patent nonsense that the mainstream media will lap up–We Are Winning in Iraq.
According to O’Hanlon and Pollack in today’s New York Times:
Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.
Yes sirree. That O’Hanlon is one tough analyst and critic. Here’s what he told the Voice of America in March 2005:
The last year in particular has seen, first, a great intensification of the insurgency but, at the very end of it, perhaps a slight reduction in its strength and its lethality. And of course, then, the preparation for the elections, which took place in early 2005 and, essentially, commemorated the end of the second year and finished it on a much more positive political note. So we see an economy that’s still struggling, although gradually improving. We see Iraqi security forces that are still in their very fledgling state, although at least starting to get better. And we see a political process that is far from resolved, but at least hopeful.
So if you’re a pessimist or an optimist, either way, you have a lot of evidence to back up your view about how things have gone this last year in Iraq.
Be assured of one thing, O’Hanlon and Pollack did not freely travel around Iraq and did not travel without a security team. Their eight day visit and upbeat assessment ignores other plausible explanations:
1. The slowing of body counts in Baghdad is not a consequence of less sectarian strife; instead, the effectiveness of the death squads and ethnic/sectarian cleansing has reduced the number of targets.
2. Moqtada al Sadr’s control of police and intelligence organs is pretty extensive. He’s biding his time and smartly avoiding a direct confrontation with US forces. There is zero evidence that Moqtada is backing down or backing away.
3. The Sunni controlled forces are doing a better job of defending their sectors. That is true. But Al Qaeda is not the main threat and never has been. But the units in charge in the Sunni sectors out west are not ready and willing to join arm-in-arm with Shia units and work for the benefit of Iraq.
There are significant changes underway in Iraq that are going to hamper the movement and operations of U.S. forces. Last year, for example, when the U.S. tracked and killed Abu Musab Al Zarqawi we did not have to coordinate in advance with the Iraqi government. That operation was carried out independently of the the Iraqi government and security forces. Even with that freedom of movement, when our forces showed up on scene after dropping a bomb on Zarqawi the Iraqi police (Sunnis) were already there trying to gather up Zarqawi and get him to a hospital. Even under those so-called optimal conditions we could not trust the Iraqi security forces to be completely transparent with us.
Today we have less freedom of movement and it is going to get worse, not better. For example, US forces moving into contested areas in Baghdad must provide advance notice to Iraqi police (IP) and/or the Iraqi Army (IA). At a minimum that increases the likelihood that an operation will be compromised. It also means that Iraqi forces will protect the insurgent forces and individuals loyal to them while giving us free access to blast away at those forces they themselves want to see eliminated.
The days of free fire zones are coming to an end. (This applies to contractors as well.) We will see a gradual decline in U.S. casualties as the number of combat patrols diminish and we avoid attacking the centers of power of entrenched militia like the Mehdi Army and the Badr Brigade. But the end result is still a country fragmented into sectarian regions and not under the control of a central government.
The problem with the current surge strategy is that we are still following a plan that has us fighting both Sunni and Shia elements in different parts of the country. Oh yeah. We’re also fighting the Iranians. The fact that Sunni sheiks in Ramadi are banding together to fight outsiders does not mean they have decided to support Prime Minister Maliki and his government.
It is worth noting that despite our increased presence in Baghdad the ethnic purge is steadily marching on. Just check out these reports from the last week:
07/29/07 Reuters: 20 bodies found in Baghdad on Saturday The bodies of 20 people were found in different areas of Baghdad on Saturday, police
07/30/07 AP: Insurgents attacked village south of Baqouba, killing 20 civilians
Northeast of the capital, dozens of suspected Sunni insurgents attacked a Sunni village south of Baqouba, killing 20 civilians and kidnapping others for not cooperating with them, a local police official said.
I would be impressed if we saw the perpetrators of these attacks being apprehended and punished. But that’s not happening. The task of carving Iraq up into sectarian safehavens is well advanced and continuing in part with our unwitting assistance.
O’Hanlon and Pollack are willing idiots who are happily latching on to the latest Bush Administration propaganda campaign to convince the public that things are swell in Iraq, that we are turning the corner, and that things will turn out okay if we just give it time. If you are eating a dozen donuts a day and sitting around waiting to lose weight I guarantee that you will not lose pounds no matter how optimistic you are. Well that analogy applies to Iraq. Surging US troops will not solve the basic political dilemma confronting Iraq.
Iraq is a country largely under the control of Shia forces that have a close relationship to Iran. The Sunni minority are not going to buy in to this deal. They will continue to fight it every way they can. And to the degree we get in the middle of that fight we will be casualties.
Comments (30)
Well, I'm on board. That $63 billion in state-of-the-art weaponry that the Bush gang is unloading in the neighborhood is evidence that we have "A War We Just Might Win." It will be pretty quiet in that neck of the woods in no time with our reliable partner Saudi Arabia getting a mere $20b worth. Heck, they only had 15 of the 19 hijackers. And who the hell was bin Laden anyhow? Peace must be just around the corner. Let the sunshine in!
August 1, 2007 2:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since the Republicans are so desperate to grab any shred of hope, O'Hanlon and Pollack have probably guaranteed an extension of the war. I am not sure the these two clowns understand the damage of their musings.
August 1, 2007 4:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I think their point is to establish a version of history that the True Believers can worship. Then at some better time they can push the notion of how they were 'stabbed in the back' before victory could be had.
It is beyond important that these stupid visions get slammed for what they are repeatedly. They should be ridiculed at every opportunity until the general public regards them like UFO "Abductees".
August 1, 2007 4:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am confident that they are not asking themselves that question.
August 1, 2007 5:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Atrios picked up on this - the buzzphrase of summer '07 is "sustainable stability". Several committed pro-surgers have used this phrase, and indeed the Sunshine boys have followed suit.
Ho-hum.
August 1, 2007 5:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Apropos, my son who is in the military told me this story - his unit was receiving a visit from the local news and their sgt. said to them, "when this reporter gets here, you assholes are going to be the goddamnedest happiest assholes on the face of this earth, because if you're not, you're going to be the sorriest assholes that ever lived."
Appearances are not always what they seem...
August 1, 2007 6:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
From what I understand, O'Hanlon and Pollack always supported the invasion of, and the continuing war, in Iraq. Their criticism was the way Bush was handling the war.
Why am I not surprised these two cretins wrote this article?
August 1, 2007 6:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the troops are winning. They are the best in the world. It's not even close. Praising the troops is valid and important in its own right.
But, the issue is whether military victory leads to a lasting peace, more stable and just than what went on before. It hasn't and it won't. By failing to acknowledge this, the war's architects are hiding behind the troops, not praising them.
August 1, 2007 6:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose they want to reduce troops and involvement considerably in 2008. To SELL that as a result of "victory" they play the surge:
Its "success" would make a partial withdrawal acceptable.
O'Hanlon may think: "With my brazen propaganda piece I help to get what we all want - the shift from disastrous escalation to the moderate Baker-Hamilton strategy. We can only afford this shift when we can sell it as a result of our strength and partial successes."
Another part of the strategy may be: Place the remaining US firepower in Iraq BETWEEN the rivalling factions. Make it clear for all fighting parties: You can only prevail if you side with US!
For that side of the strategy it's a good development that some Sunni insurgence groups now attack socalled AlQaida insurgents.
A gradual shift away from the US-empowered Shiite factions (which all are proIran) might also be part of a preparation of the planned air-assault on Iran.
Anyway, the USA - Republicans or Democrats - have no plan or intention to leave Iraq completely. US troups will dig in, deployed in the big "enduring bases", and from time to time lash out with superior firepower. And that will happen without asking the Iraqis or their government.
I guess: Neither Clinton nor Obama nor Edwards will really get the USA out of Iraq in the next term.
In this important respect there is a gap between the three frontrunners and the majority of their basis.
August 1, 2007 7:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
How does this thin veiled propaganda from Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack get space in the NYT and how does it get comprehensive coverage from the MSM? And then what happens, we spend the next two days dissecting pure FUD. Monday was like a finely tuned orchestra piping their propaganda across American airwaves. How do you explain such coordination?
Is it possible AIPAC's power in the media was at work. What was it Eric Alterman said, that their were 61 journalist that Israel could count on to promote their interests. Certainly the Brookings Institute is rife with supporters.
We know AIPAC supported this war and supports military efforts against Iran.
This propaganda has been trumpeted time and again during the run up to the war and the last several years.
The public is overwhelming against the war and yet Congress is impotent. Name the top three lobbies in Washington? Right.
I am not anti-Israel but I am do believe the interests of Likud Party are driving our foreign policy in the Middle East through AIPAC which includes our Christian right leaders and our neocons. They can turn on their media wurlitzer at will. It is one propaganda machine.
The other explanations as to why and how this war continues just fall woefully short.
August 1, 2007 7:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
As Juan Cole points out today, July temperatures in Baghdad hit 120-130 degrees (have you seen pics of soccer celebrants?). Notwithstanding, Cole reports that US deaths are some 75% higher than last July and reported Iraqi deaths, 23% higher than last month. The parliament is in recess; the government disintegrating; the Kurds are threatening secession because the parliament didn't approve the voter rolls for the Kirkuk referendum; the Sunni's have resigned from the u"unity (sic) government( Sic)" and a coalition in Southern Iraq has declared the formation of another autonomous region.
Little Miss Sunshine O'Hanlon and Mushroom Cloud Pollack - leftist war critics - were just the opening shot for who in his right mind would conduct major offensive propaganda operations in August?
August 1, 2007 7:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: :O'Hanlon and Pollack always supported the invasion of, and the continuing war, in Iraq.
That's correct. Read Glenn Greenwald on that here.
August 1, 2007 7:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
"How does this thin veiled propaganda from Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack get space in the NYT?"
Short answer: Read "War Made Easy--How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us To Death" by Norman Solomon.
The NYT in particular is the newspaper of record for getting us into the Iraq War, keeping us there, and getting us into a new war in Iran because "Iran is developing WMD's" (where have we heard that before).
August 1, 2007 7:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Light at the end of the tunnel, anyone?
August 1, 2007 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you BevD. While we know this is how the game is played, it's great to hear a verbatim account.
I think we can also assume that the message gets passed down from the soldiers to the Iraqi neighborhoods the reporters will be visiting.
August 1, 2007 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Last Fall, I predicted that by the Summer that Iraq would cease to exist as a functioning nation state. Probably was the case then. No question now.
Bombs rock Baghdad, killing 70, as unity government crumbles (AFP)
August 1, 2007 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was beating my wife one night and she was screaming pretty good, so good in fact, that the neighbors heard her....again.
Neighbor; " Oh listen, JohnW is beating her again, what should we do?"
Neighbor's Hubby; "Call the cops!"
( dial, dial, dial, ) "Hello police, he's beating her again."
Cops; "OK ma'am, we'll send a car."
Neighbor; "Look, look, the cops are on their porch ringing the bell."
Neighbor's Hubby; "Yes, and the screaming stopped, I guess he stopped beating her."
Neighbor; 'Well, that's "PROGRESS."
August 1, 2007 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a blog from a soldier in Iraq who is not the goddamnest happiest asshole on the face of this earth: the calm before sand. In the end, the real way to support the troops in Iraq is to bring them home as soon as can be done.
Hoppy in Sacramento
August 1, 2007 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Somewhere in Glenn Greenwald's massive evisceration of the Sunshine Boys' OpEd is a quote from O'Hanlon a few years back (which I recall he's used several times since) to the effect that Iraq is a glass-half-empty/full about to become 3/4 full.
If this is progress can the helicopter skids be far away?
Call me defeatist but don't call me late for lunch.
August 1, 2007 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're absolutely right here. But it isn't just the True Believers they are targeting. It's apparent that the NYT piece is part of the latest propaganda campaign that includes Petraeus' rosy scenarios. They are probably trying to squeeze a few more Friedman Units out of this thing on top of the built in extensions that the surge provided. And even if they fail at extending the war deep into the next administration's term, they will be able to share culpability with whoever ends it.
If they can maintain the line that a "sustainable stability" can be attained if we just hang in there, then whoever ends the war can be blamed for not allowing us to win. Of course, that sounds like a ridiculous explanation that would never sell, but they have successfully sold more extreme B.S. than that so far. If nothing else, this revising of history before it is written provides a bargaining chip to leverage for a larger force to be left behind and permanent bases if they can be argued to have a positive effect.
August 1, 2007 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
jex, you were prescient.
Three or 4 years ago I predicted Bush/Cheney would destroy the Republican party for at least a generation. Lets hope my crystal ball was as accurate as yours.
August 1, 2007 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know so little about how the real intelligence systems work or how military works outside of my viewing it and reading on it and the consequences years later. But I have a favorite read, Sun Tzu and various commentaries. The ancient ways of keeping the emperor in charge were laid out in his teachings and though I doubt it is the complete view, seems that Sadr knows what he knew.
Why would I go out and fight a known dominant military force? If I can ease back, have them go lax,then I can strike in a way that is at their weakness or blind spot.
These dog and pony shows have become as blurry as American Idol contestants or is it Wanna Be A Trillionaire contestant.
I have a ton of news and record mtp,ftn,hardball,and such. These yahoos show up all the time to spin a new tale of mitigation and the great liberation. Reminds me of the Gelders and Mary Louise Strong who came back and told everyone how great Mao was to the Tibetans.
Lib-er-ation, she ain't what she used to be, ain't what she used to be, ain't what she used BOOM.
The the fix is in, they've got their money, our children will pay their tab to over $1 Trillion estimated, and they don't have to pick it up, fix it, end it, if the Citizenry even bypassing congress, demands an end to this savage lie.
Keep up the great work Larry J., appreciate you.
August 2, 2007 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
The day after Election 2004, when my friends hung their head low, I would not. I said, I want to see those 2 men in prison for their crimes. I want to see them prosecuted and incarcerated in a public forum that honors the constitutions finest spirit and cuts away myths and conjures.
Lets hope my crystal ball was close to either of yours.
August 2, 2007 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
last phrase was: "unless the Citizenry bypasses Congress and demands an end to this savage lie."
August 2, 2007 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Police Report: Arrived at address at 10:34. Suspect answered door and invited us in. Suspect turned down the volume on his police scanner and proceeded to interview victim in our presence. Victim explained that she had fallen down the steps, but was okay. Victime explained that she falls down the steps "all the time" but less so in the last month now that we visit every third day. Suspect thanked us for our time and asked us to hadle his generous contribution to the PBA.
Conclusion: Suspect is a model citizen. Victim is a clutz, but additional visits should improve her equilibrium in time that regular visits will be unnecessary.
Recommendation: Department should consider a satelite precinct in suspect's neighbor's yard. Such a facility may allow regular visits to improve victim's balance, and enrich locval PBA chapter.
- Detective O'Hanlon and Sgt Pollack, Mayberry PD
/c
In the blogosphere every one is an expert, so no one is an expert.
August 2, 2007 5:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
My suggestion was to put Bush and Cheney in a pillory in front of the WTC Memorial and have small baskets of rotten tomatoes on sale for a buck a basket.
- an entrepreneurial capitalist.
August 2, 2007 6:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, the Surge sent troops into Iraq to clear and hold and violence is down; well, you don't commit a crime when there's a cop standing in front of you. The question is, how long will the cop stay there?
August 2, 2007 6:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
NOW THAT'S PROGRESS!! :-)
- Mayberry Machiavellis
August 2, 2007 6:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
rotton squash too? pungent
August 2, 2007 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lord! I'm really surprised no one is sniffing around the edges of this one, looking for the tell, the "give-away".
The hoopla and extensive media recognition that went along with this one could have only been the result of an orchestrated public relations/disinformation campaign. This administration is back in the "journalism" business, back to its' old tricks.
August recess, we need to try to reach our Congressmen and women. Strong opposition is an absolute necessity to save both the country and those bright, shining elections we keep hearing about. Elections, they're more effective than drugs! Look! over there, a '37 Buick!
Kevin Russell Cook
August 2, 2007 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink