There's no a priori reason that the media can't reasonably project who the frontrunners will be in an upcoming election. The problem these days is that the media have their heads so far up their own asses that it's inevitable that they're going to be wrong. It's all whistling-past-the-graveyard writ large.

This is my third. I had to change because I have a new "official" TPM bio on the main site that uses it. You don't like it?

McCain was finished the instant Bush announced his surge. McCain had been saying for months if not years that if *he* were the President he would send an additional 20,000+ troops. It was a good tactic then, because Bush wasn't gonna do it. It allowed McCain to support the war *and* criticize its handling. Maverick and all.

But once Bush embraced his strategy it was all over. The surge hasn't worked and McCain has no answers but to emptily support Bush's policies. Unfortunately for him, there are other guys doing that job better. Gitmo Mitt, 9/11 Profiteer Rudy, Rule of Pretend Law Fred, etc. McCain is yesterday's news.

The horse race analogy is a good one, in that horse races are interesting when you only watch three or four a year.

It's when it's on 24 hours a day that it becomes an obsession. There aren't enough horses to race, so they end up spending most of their time talking about past horse races and future horse races and betting on them and consistently losing money until somebody has a Jimmy the Greek moment and goes down in flames, only to be replaced by some other conservative star who has clawed his way up the ladder of the media suckuptocracy - bleh.

Curse you Ted Turner!

I guess scenario speaks to four things.

First it's certain people in the media trying to annoint a candidate.

Second, it's an attempt at trying to weed out candidates they don't like.

Third, might just be wrong predictions.

Fourth, might not be predictions so much as an expression of the mood of the moment.

In almost all cases, I'd say a little of all four are at play. We've certainly seen the media turn on certain candidates (Dean last time, Edwards this time) and the media has always adored McCain, though less so these days.

Ordinarily I'd say that without McCain the press will flock towards Giuliani, but they do seem to have a crush on Thompson. Which will be funny because Thompson seems incapable of running a long campaign.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

Really? Not immigration, Iraq, campaign finance reform, and a history of criticizing conservatives? He's losing the GOP base because he's too close to Bush and Falwell? I think you're substituting your opinions for those of the people who vote in GOP primaries.

It might be that he's just too old. He had some very weak performances on some pundit shows in the last year. He seems to have lost his spark and his ability to be sharp, focused and to think on his feet. I think he just missed his moment.

Andrew, as a Dean staffer, I'm sure you saw close up how the media can tilt campaigns. They anointed Kerry as the nominee, and when Dean pulled out front, they began portraying him as an out-of-control lunatic. Like weathermen, pundits can be wrong (and you don't need one to know which way the wind blows). But weathermen cannot chase away storm clouds by repeatedly proclaiming a sunny day. The political media are more rainmakers than forecasters.

I think the media has too much power and influence over the system and they abuse it. Witness the repeated caricaturing of AL Gore, our robotic "father of the internets," that still pops up when it looks like he might get back in. Likewise, the media did not produce the Swiftboaters, but it did not expose them as frauds either. The media follows its corporate masters as they frame the picture, keep the gates and set the agendas.

Look how little positive air Edwards gets, yet his hair status (a Coulter-originated attack) gets unlimited coverage. When his wife confronts Coulter about ridiculing their dead child, she is portrayed as just being political (she said, she said). A candidate for leader of the free world like Mitt Romney should be laughed out of the race for all his lies, ignorance and flip flops, but hey, he looks good and he serves the right interests, so he will always get play.

Incisive comment, the hard core Republican base is more inclined to screw immigrants than to kill Iraqi's, especially since the latter course is costing $12.5 billion and 100 dead troops a month. Maybe McCain can revive enthusiasm among the faithful by reintroducing the anti-gay marriage Constitutional amendment.

Ah, so it's the loss of the media darling status that's cost him. Maybe. I think more likely it's all he ever had to keep him afloat and he's always had more serious underlying problems with the GOP base that were simply revealed as this process began and that he could have ignored to keep his media darling status (not going to Liberty), but that would have lost him the nomination anyway.

My final post on this line.

McCain tried to suck up to the base by sucking up to Bush and Falwell, when he did that, he lost other constituencies.

True, his support has mostly come from the moderates of both parties. Still, I feel there is something to the Falwell pander move that sealed the deal.   

"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani

Yeah, he lost in 2000, but if that had actually been an open primary, he probably would have won it. Conservatives leaders started lining up behind George Bush in late 1998 and early 1999. He was the presumptive nominee from the day he started campaigning. McCain never had a chance.

Oh, I don't have any polling numbers. Just, like Chertoff, my gut.

But where, then, do you think McCain's support comes from? Not the GOP base, and not the moderates? Where? (Or, is it a trick question, he has not support?)

It was always my assumption that those who call themselves Moderates or Independents always had a thing for McCain. The Marshall Whittmann crowd.

Not true?

(Of course, I don't really believe there are Independents, but that's a different story...) 

Given how rough the political tides have been against the Iraqi war, I am not suprised that McCain has become a victim. He is now a second tier candidate-- or worse a "dark horse" in this race.

What is most surprising, he never saw it coming. His advisers/strategists were out to lunch. I thought the backlash would be evident.